HR2: Kevin’s Smell Test picks for NFL & CFB | Commanders Keys To A Victory vs Eagles! | Eric Edholm breaks down the Commanders going into week 1

0:00All right, I wasn't on radio last Friday, but I did it on my podcast and I tweeted out the picks as well. Week one, three zero and one, the three winners were Iowa, Penn State and Tartan State. They play in Texas and they were getting a short number against bowling green and they won the game outright. Some of you said that may have been my most obscure but also my most memorable smell test pick. I don't know. We've had some bad teams and some no-name teams in the smell test before, but good job Tartan State for a three zero and one weekend the push was Florida State on Monday night in the Labor Day game, getting three against SMU. Some of you won that play and had FSU at plus three and a half. Look, last year was an exceptional year. It's hard to go 62.4% when you're doing season long picks.

1:03The philosophy for those of you unfamiliar is just kind of if everybody's lined up on one side and they're convinced that the line is wrong and somehow Vegas is misstepped, just go the other way and make sure that you understand that Vegas doesn't misstep. Odds makers don't screw up. That's why all of those big, beautiful hotels and casinos are all over the place. That's why everybody wants to be the house if you've got a brain versus being the gambler. And so it's mostly that but over the years and many of you know this, I do and am familiar with many of the people that have been odds makers and bettakers offshore and I kind of get some information as to where the sharp money is. And so it's kind of a combination of anti public but making sure that on the other side there is super sharp money on that side as well.

2:08Last year 62.4% documented. It was my third best season out of the 20 that I've done the smell test. It started in 2006 when I was doing the show with Rigo on triple X ESPN radio. Yes, that was our station back then. And over 20 years I've had 15 winning seasons, just five losing seasons last year, the third best in the history of doing the smell test. We'll try to do it again but it's pretty hard to go 62.4% for those of you who don't understand yes. When you hear that people are touting some sort of 70 or 75 or 80% hit rate, just know they are lying maybe for a weekend or two but not for a season. All right, let's get to week two.

3:10And there are some games on here that just are absolutely made for the smell test. And it starts with tomorrow at high noon when Michigan hosts Oklahoma. Michigan coming off that very controversial win on the Hail Mary number two with the mysterious second being put back on the clock after an absolute abysmal performance in that game, especially by its quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who was legit terrible in the game. And yet here they come home for week two against an Oklahoma team led by their head coach Brett Venables once again looking like a defensive juggernaut. They shut out UTEP in their opener last weekend, 51 to nothing. And I was actually hoping to see a number that was even smaller than this, but actually they couldn't make a number big enough to get people off of Oklahoma.

4:15This is the single biggest public side of the college football weekend. The public loves Oklahoma, laying less than a touchdown at five and a half. I have no idea how Michigan can cover this game, but they are the absolute play at plus five and a half. There is short money on Michigan. You know, the college football season is very similar to the NFL season in which week one can really be misleading, especially in college, where they don't do anything in the preseason against anybody else. So look for Michigan in the big house early tomorrow to bounce back. And all we need is another hideous looking 13 to 12 game to get the win regardless of who wins the game. Michigan plus the five and a half is the first play of the weekend. Also in that 12 o'clock noon Eastern window tomorrow is USF at Army.

5:17USF struggled to score, struggled to do anything well. They won their opener 19 to nine against Florida International last week while Army absolutely blew out Bryant College 59 to three. Army is just one of those teams that's very difficult to prepare for. And that's why the public typically likes to bet Army, especially when they're giving a short number to a team that doesn't look anywhere near as good as it was at times last year. I'll take USF plus the three and a half at Army tomorrow. And then a team that I almost gave out last week and it would have won is Duke. Duke last week opened up with a 17 to three win against Tulane. They were laying a pretty big number and the public was on Tulane, but there was short money that was split. So I didn't give Duke out this week. However, Duke is catching five and a half at Illinois.

6:17A team that gave up yards and points to UAB in a win last week. The public likes the Alion I at home. I'll take Duke plus the five and a half. So those are the three college plays this weekend. I'll tell you, I'd lean Rutgers big time tonight plus the three and a half at BC after Rut got beat by UMass last week is a 29 and a half point favorite. But that number's gone up a little bit. There's some short money on BC. So I stayed off it. But that's also just to keep an eye on. It's also the Red Bandana game too. It's the Red Bandana game as well. You can't go against BC in the Red Bandana game. I guess. I'm off that one. I might be on it personally, but it's not an official smell test. Pick just three college plays Michigan plus five and a half USF plus three and a half in Duke plus five and a half. Let's go to Sunday, the first NFL Sunday of the year. And the one o'clock window features a game that is by far and away the most one sided

7:24of the games this weekend with respect to public action. And that is the public. They love themselves some Chicago bears. And they are not fond of the Carolina Panthers, even though the Panthers won the division last year, but they were eight and nine. The Panthers are getting three and a half. There's some threes. There's some three and a halfs out there. I'm going to take each week the best number that's out there. Now if it's one shop that has a good number and everybody else's uniform across the board at a worse number, I'll take the worst number. But there are plenty of three and a halfs out there. There are plenty of threes. I'll take the Panthers plus the three and a half as the biggest anti-public play of week one against the bears. And then I'm going to give you out a total in the one o'clock window. And it's the opposite of the way I usually think. I love unders in the NFL because most fans prefer to play overs in the NFL.

8:24But this is an under that the public really likes. It's the biggest total play so far. Jets, Titans, the public loves under 38 and a half. I'll go over 38 and a half and say somehow they end up putting on an offensive display. Between two teams that last year looked like they could not score. Those are the two plays in the one o'clock window, just one play in the late afternoon window. Washington plus five and a half at Philadelphia. The bears are the biggest public play on the board. The second biggest public public play on the board are the Eagles. Take Washington plus the five and a half. I have no idea how they'll do it. I mean, I'm going to share with you how they'll do it coming up. And I just, it doesn't matter that it's the home team. And those of you that know this over the years, I am 63 and a half percent on games involving

9:29Washington, whether I'm going against them or with them. I've had a good feel for my hometown team as a smell test play or a smell test go against. I'm playing them this week plus the five and a half on general contrarian principle. Take Washington plus the five and a half. And then Sunday night, the giants are a huge public, anti public side. I'll take the giants against, you know, everybody's darling this time of year. Oh, the cowboys are going to be great. This is the year. The giants are getting three. It's two and a half in some spots, but I see some threes out there. I'll take the giants plus the three at home on Sunday night against the cowboys. Wait a minute. Hold on for one second. There's one play that I did not give you for the one o'clock window. My fault. Saints plus at Detroit. Let me just tell you that I took them off. Max knew I was going to give out the Saints because I've loved him for about three weeks

10:30now. But the line, somebody told me the line was going to jump here. And it may look, I'm playing these games on Friday. Sometimes the lines change significantly away from me. And sometimes it's for me. But we'll see what happens with this line because there are some injuries with New Orleans. But I'm going to take them plus the seven at Detroit. Detroit's another public darling this weekend. So there it is. Week two of the smell test Michigan plus five and a half tomorrow at home against Oklahoma. Two SF plus three and a half at Army Duke plus five and a half at Illinois. And then Sunday early the Panthers plus three against the Bears, the Saints plus seven against the Lions, the over in the Jets Tennessee game, 38 and a half. And then Washington plus five and a half in the late window and then Sunday night the Giants plus three.

11:31We will send those out on the team 980's website and I'll tweet them out shortly before the kicks on both Saturday and Sunday. All right. When we come back, what Washington must do to beat the Eagles tomorrow? I'll give you my first Washington wins if of the season. We'll do that next. I do want to mention that Foley mechanical is the place to go to for any HVAC system issues. We had some issues about nine months ago now. We called Foley mechanical. We actually called Dan himself. Dan owns Foley mechanical. It's not owned by a hedge firm. It's not owned by a private equity firm. It's not a franchise. Dan handles everything and he comes out to see you himself. And I would ask that when you reach out to Foley mechanical, you reach out to Dan and say that I sent you.

12:32Dan's as hands on as any small business owner I've run into in a long time. He controls everything, the quality of what he does, the quality of customer service, his team that he hires their professional, they're skilled and they are sharp. Foley mechanical. They're a full service heating, air conditioning, hot water and boilers company. They're especially knowledgeable when it comes to older homes with boiler heat. They serve DC, Maryland and Virginia and proudly install a man at HVAC equipment. So if your system needs help or you just want it done right, call Foley mechanical or go to Foley Mechanical.com and tell Dan that I sent you. All right. The first Washington wins if Washington beats the Philadelphia Eagles if I'll give you my reasons in a moment. But I wanted to mention this for starters, you know, week one is like I keep beating this

13:34dead horse, but who the hell knows, you know, especially when one team is rolling out two new coordinators, two new schemes and a lot of new players on defense in particular. In the other team, you know, they're rolling out a completely new offensive scheme with a new coordinator and one of their best players in recent years is no longer there, AJ Brown. I'm going to say this before I might need to say it, but this one game is just one game and it's the first game and the first game of the year is usually not a great indicator of what the other 16 will be. Just remember that, okay, when we get to Monday, if it doesn't go well or if it goes well, like this is a gym zone, stay medium situation on Monday. You really have to feel that way about the first few weeks of the NFL season.

14:35Now, I'll be disappointed if the team doesn't come out with a ton of energy, a ton of aggressiveness, you know, the old coaching, you know, adage, make mistakes at full speed, you know, nothing else. We don't care if you make mistakes, but it better be at full speed. You want to see that, obviously, in the opener. I'm actually not sure what I'm interested in seeing more or excited about seeing more, the new defense or the new offense. But is it relates to the offense, the one thing that I feel confident about going into this season is it relates to how both sides of the ball will play is that offensively, David Blow is going to have our quarterback under center more than he's been in the first two seasons, not exclusively under center. Just so everybody knows that even the league leaders in under center snaps the last few years, it wasn't like 75 or 80% of the snaps.

15:35It was like 54% of the snaps were under center. But Washington was near the bottom, you know, along with teams like Philadelphia and Kansas City, you know, both ways have worked. And I know that there's been a recent trend of pushing everybody towards under center football, but the Super Bowl champs two years ago, Philadelphia didn't take much under center in the year before that. The chiefs didn't take much under center, but we're going to see more under center snaps in the David Blow system. Under center more will include an attempt to run the football in a more zone run centric scheme. We'll see less quarterback dual threat than we've seen in the first two years. Definitely less quarterback designed runs, you know, they've basically already told us, Jaden pretty much told us that the quarterback counters the quarterback, you know, off tackles, the quarterback traps the quarterback sweeps. They're not even in the playbook.

16:36So we're not going to see that anymore. And I think we'll see less true quarterback option quarterback dual threat stuff. We'll see a major increase in play action pass attempts. That's a given, you know, this offense will be much more of a play action pass offense, whether that's play action and dropback or play action and bootleg. And by the way, you know, Koolie used to remind us of this and I always felt it was interesting. He's like, you know, you don't have to be a consistently great run team for play action to work. If you scheme it up well and your quarterback is really good as a ball handler, you know, as a guy that can really sell the run fakes. And I think Jaden will be good at that. And I think Blau is going to have to be good at showing a lot of those pre snap, you

17:41know, motions and pre snap formations that end up maybe indicating run more when they're going to go play action. Logan talked about that a little bit in the segment that I played last hour for you. But yeah, it's going to be really interesting to see what it looks like. I mean, they made major changes in the off season. And on the defensive side of the ball, it's not just a major scheme change with a new play collar. It is 10 to 11 guys, all of whom are expected to contribute somehow. If not start, there's going to be a moment either on Sunday or next Sunday or the Sunday after that where the 11 players on the field are going to be all new players or 10 of the 11 will be new players to the franchise and to the roster. I mean, a lot of a lot of mystery around this team heading into the season.

18:41And again, like we talked about yesterday, for me, the quarterback is number one. The quarterback's health is number one. If he plays 17 games, you got a shot to win more than you lose a good shot. And then number two for me is defensively. You've got to see a jump from where it's been the last three seasons, especially from where it was. And if you can improve defensively to just somewhere in the middle of the pack, then you got a chance to be a pretty good team. All right, Sunday, Washington beats Philadelphia if number one, they stop the run. You know, a lot of this is going to be cliche stuff, especially in week one, especially when we don't know a lot about the teams. You know, you can talk all about Sequan's big games against our team the last few years, but none of that really applies because it's a totally new defense. And he's in a totally new offense. So this is really the first matchup between this Washington defense and this Philly offense

19:44with Sequan Barkley. But you got to be disciplined in the zone run scheme, which you'll see a lot with Sean Manion as the offensive coordinator. You got to be disciplined and cutting off those cut back lanes, stretching it out to the sideline, using that sideline as the extra 12th defender in your run defense. And you got to tackle well. This team was such a poor tackling team last year. And you're up against a very talented offensive line. You got to get off blocks. You got to maintain gaps. You got to cut off those cutbacks in the zone run scheme. And you got to stop their best offensive player, Sequan Barkley. Imagine how much easier the first game for Sean Manion would be as a play collar if, you know, Sequan's averaging four plus yards per carry. It's got to be less than that Sunday. Number one, stop the run. Number two, very cliche, but critical early season games. You've got to win the turnover margin when you have a lesser talent, which Washington

20:48does. And I would say that, you know, a plus one to plus two means you're in the game at the very least. You know, you're not getting handed it to you. You get to plus two, which would be nice. That would require two takeaways minimum, which they didn't do really much at all last year. But if you want to feel good about the chances of winning the game, I think you got to come out of this one right around plus two in the turnover margin. Number three, you cannot make this game a dropback game for Jaden Daniels. You know, when I say dropback, I'm talking about true. We're dropping them back into the pocket because it's third and 10. They know we're passing and we have to pass. And we got to let guys get down the field and he's going to be in the pocket. No, dropback right now against this defense, whether it's a good offensive line or a bad offensive line, it's a bad idea. So you have to stay in good, down in distance, you know, whether they do it by running the

21:49ball or with quick game as their primary pass offense, you've got to stay in solid, down distance situations because dropping back Jaden too much against that defense is not something that would be recommended. And I'm not just saying it because of the offensive line. I'm saying it because that defense talent wise is nasty and asking any quarterback to drop back over and over again against that defense is asking for trouble. Move the football without having to call pure dropback in obvious passing situations. And you'll be in good shape. And then lastly, we know these week one games are slapfests often be less sloppy than the opponent. The cleanliness, you know, happens because there's no real preseason. There's no real playing football until week one penalties, wasted timeouts, bad tackling, dropped passes, you know, you've got to be on the less side of all of that than your opponent.

22:55The cleaner team always early in the season has a much better chance of winning the game. So there you go. Those are the four keys to beating the Eagles. Our prediction on the team's record this season and on the game's Sunday next hour, up next Eric Edholm from the NFL Network will jump on to talk about last night and help preview week one. Oliver NFL conversation on the team 980s presented by Xfinity scored the most reliable Wi-Fi one price five years guaranteed Xfinity. Imagine that Eric Edholm is with us. I said NFL because he was at NFL Network now who sports at Eric underscore at home. I had forgotten about your big move not that long ago. Eric just wrote about both of the new offensive coordinators in Sunday's game in Philadelphia,

23:58David Blow and Sean Manion. We'll get to that. We'll get to his thoughts on Washington this year. But I saw that you tweeted out during the game. Fred is first ballot as in Fred Warner is first ballot. It's so interesting because I was having a conversation with a friend of mine last night and he said, how many Hall of Famers are on this San Francisco team and how many of them are first ballots? So I'll ask you. Wow. Yeah. Williams for sure. Right. Actually after last night my goodness. I mean, he was looking at his good and severed just completely owning mild care whether he's full health or not who knows. But yeah, I mean, you know, look, that was one of those tweets in the moment where you think that, you know, look, it's hard to get people in on the first ballot. We've got some darn good players, some exceptional Hall of Famers who have had to wait a year or more. So a little bit of a reactionary post. But man, he's just one of those players who's always there and always making his impact

24:58felt the best linebacker in the game is also a turnover machine. But Christian McCaffrey, I think will be a Hall of Famer. You know, it's possibly a first ballot one, you know, who might forget Mike Evans, you know, obviously probably will go into the body first ballot. Right. He's the first ballot has to be the consistency, the excellence that sustained excellence for so long. I think it has to. Because there's a loose side of these things, right? When they've been doing it so well for so long, but yeah, I think he's got to be and I'm sure I'm forgetting at least one other guy. Kittle and Boso would be kind of the other two that could be in the midst of putting together those kinds of careers. I think we would say that they certainly have the potential. Boso's obviously his availability has been an issue, but they've got a long way to go. But I'm not sure other than the team they played last night, Eric, that anybody has as many a plus talents on their roster that the Niners do.

25:58And when I did my story if we could go or sell where I sort of lumped teams by tears, like four different groups, right? Everything from like the true contenders down to the tankers, the teams that most of us feel have no shot of winning the football versus the team, you know, the group that has the most. And the Niners and that top group for that reason, I said, look, I understand that they have been cloaked in injury madness the last few years, right? I mean, it's been unbelievable to see how many of their top players have missed significant time. And in some cases, the entire season, just a couple years ago, we thought McCaffrey was playing in the opener and then he was out till week 10. You know, that's the kind of stuff that they've been struck with. So, I mean, that's, you know, if they have some semblance of injury luck and maybe it's something they're doing, you know, in their preparation that's hurting them, I don't know, I'm not smart enough to say. But if they get something close to the median in terms of injury luck this year, I think they're going to be in it for a long wait.

26:59And you know, they want to play off game on the road with a shell crew missing half their, you know, past rush talent and, you know, being thin in the secondary and everything else. So, you know, it's, it's the kind of team that it's easy to overlook. And I think there's some Brock Purti, you know, hatred and they're not hatred, I shouldn't say that. But, you know, deniability there where people just say, yeah, he sees a second or third to your guy, he's good, but he's a system guy. That all kind of, you know, when you forget how good they could be at their best and that run game was home in last night and the second half, they're, their contenders to me. Yeah, for sure. What, how do you, you know, view last night's game after the fact, is that a bad game or a bad sign for the Rams? You know, I try not to put every year, I remind myself it's week one. There are some fluke things that happen in week one. Some teams almost treat it like the fourth preseason game. I don't want to suggest they're throwing the games.

27:59I'm just saying that they don't, you know, what we see in week one is often very different for. I think the Seahawks and Patriots both lost in week one a year ago. Patriots lost to the Raiders, Eric. I put that out, you know, when I taught how week one being a head fake, they lost to the Raiders at home last year. They look terrible. They look awful. And New England didn't really look right and probably until that first Buffalo game, you know, the Seahawks didn't really hit their stride until about mid season. You know, so again, you never want to put too much into one game, but you know, for people who thought or for some folks, there was some talk about like a 17 or no season for this Rams team. I never bought into that. Did I pick them to go to the Super Bowl? Yes. And can they still get there? Sure. Absolutely. But it was a little concerning how little juice they seem to have on either side of the ball. Whether that was travel related or not. Again, I'll leave that up to the travel experts and the people who log as many hours as some

29:00do on planes. But man, it just didn't look right. And that's, you know, that's a week one into week two concern right now. Yeah. I mean, like I heard somebody on a post game show last night suggesting, you know, the Rams aren't wrong yet. You know, part of the plan may have been what they look like coming back for the next few weeks versus what the 49ers might look like coming back after spending eight days in Australia. So there may have been a method to the decision, even if it's been described as madness right now. And it may have had much more to do with what they are in condition to play after last night. We'll see. I like you. I'm not the science expert. And I've heard, you know, 50 different opinions on this. What was very obvious last night though was San Francisco was a team with energy and the Rams were incredibly sluggish. Yeah. Yeah.

30:01I think you can't deny that fact. And, you know, again, some of it was like building on the momentum plays, you know, having an interception and then taking it back and, you know, getting the goal line stand. I mean, there were some big momentum plays in that game that I think kind of shifted the favor. But it's still the remainder of the game. It's not like you felt like the Rams were clearly the better team by no means that I feel that at any point, other than maybe a couple of moments early in the first half. So yeah, I mean, I think that the energy level was certainly noticeable, especially when the 49ers started really leaning into that run game and kind of muscling their way forward. And how good a K-Lon Black look and how many characters you got compared to McCaffrey. Really impressive. Yeah. So I'm excited to see. Hopefully the dribbling injury isn't too bad. You know, he only makes his minimal time. And this could be a nineers team that I think has some real juice this year. All right. Let's just talk about the NFL in general. And then we'll get to Washington and the matchup on Sunday with Philadelphia between, you

31:05know, Washington's two new coordinators in Philadelphia is offensive coordinator who is new. Your tears, give me the teams that were in tier one, the teams that you have, you know, as separated from whatever that next level is. Yeah. I mean, I think the Rams and 49ers were definitely in there as well. I gotta sit there and think about my list as we go here. But yeah, it was Rams, Seahawks, Bill's, Eagles, Ravens. I think the Broncos were in that top group. And I think I think by last team, I had the nineers and then also the Patriots as well. And you know, we'll see obviously things have changed since Monday, where since Wednesday, I mean, with the AJ Brown injury and the way May looked and especially the fourth quarter, but throughout the second half, I thought, you know, they've got some issues to tackle all of a sudden. And no clear and obvious solutions in terms of who's going to step up at receiver.

32:05Offensive line to me seem to wear down as the game went on, not bad early. More concerning the later we got in the game defensively. I know they kept the score low, back up quarter back, still leaky against the run in some respects. And, you know, with Christian Gonzalez out there, it makes a difference. But I just worry if they have that full picture defensively. So I'm, you know, I'm starting to hedge a little bit on them, even though I'm breaking my week one rule. So, but those are the teams that I felt like had the best. I guess the fewest questions are the best paths to success. So the clearest ones, not to say that, you know, had I done this list a year ago, just to use the New England Seattle example, of course, they probably would have been in my third tier, right? Washington would have been in my third or fourth tier, two years ago, before they got to that up for championship game. It doesn't mean that they can't get there. It just means there's more to accomplish or more to overcome. Yeah, I mean, I, I point out all the time, like just trying to predict this league is impossible.

33:08Last year, seven of the eight division winners were not picked to win the division. And beyond that, like five of those seven weren't even in the conversation, you know, teams like New England, Carolina, Chicago, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Philly was the only team that was predicted to win their division. That won their division. So we see this obviously every single year, you know, New England was in the low to mid 20s and everybody's preseason power rankings and Seattle was right around 20. So with that understood, I am always interested with people like you who I really respect in terms of your understanding of the NFL. Do you have a hunch or two on teams that don't have expectations? But we know six or seven of them are going to be there. Give me the one or two sleepers that you've got in your mind right now. Yeah, I mean, I think had the question or the answer to this question when it's been asked

34:13in various forms last month or so has traditionally been the same. I've, I'm wondering if maybe some of those injuries aren't going to be a little worrisome, you know, Jordan Tyson and Brian Brassie and a few other guys and whether they have the true defensive firepower, they were also pretty bad on special teams a year ago. That was sort of an underrated quality of how bad they were. But down the stretch with Tyler Shock, I felt like man, they were, they were starting to become. You could see where this team was going offensively and how they were going to trust him to make throws. You know, he's a young guy. I guess in terms of experience, but he's played a lot of football and I think Kevin Moore believes in the guy and I'll be, you know, it's a division that feels like it's up for grabs. So, you know, they were, they were definitely a team that checked some boxes that I think could, could, could lead to an improvement. And I picked them to win the South. So we'll see if that holds up. I mean, Minnesota is a really interesting one too in the sense that, you know, like the Saints, they played pretty well down the stretch. It was really the opposite side of the ball, the defense, the chariotum.

35:15And just on the aggregate, I mean, I don't know how many teams you would have put below them last year in terms of quarterback play. I just don't think they got much out of the position last year and still ended up 98, still ended up a very competitive team that harassed the Packers down the stretch and had really some statement victories, even if they were, you know, not really out of the race. So there's another one that, boy, if Kyla Murray is just above average, you know, good. If they can improve that baseline quarterback play with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, a good offensive line, a good play collar who, you know, Kevin O'Connell, I know he's taken some heat in the last year or so, but I still think he's really good at what he does. And defensively, I believe there's a lot to be hopeful about again. Maybe they're the team that does the Chicago bear thing and comes out and nowhere and wins the North. Yeah, I mean, it's such an interesting division. Like if Kyla Murray, if Kevin O'Connell

36:20gets consistent performance from Kyla Murray, no one should ever question Kevin O'Connell again. By the way, speaking of that, I mean, we should never bury anybody because we've got the Geno Smith Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold examples to point to just in recent years. But man, it doesn't look good for JJ McCarthy, does it? Not in Minnesota. I mean, I think there are some potential second homes for him where he can kind of reinvent himself and maybe take a step back like Geno did, right? Where he was a backup for a couple of years before he got that starting opportunity. And you're right, this is a league that is, you could find so many examples of that. I think Baker was always sort of considered a starting quarterback, even if he had to go through that little ram, stay for a while where he was thrust into the lineup out of necessity. But yeah, this is, there's the reason why he was taken high. People believe that there was something there. To this point, it hasn't looked good and the

37:22injury questions have obviously been really concerning. But you know, whether it's one of the Harvoth, the Giants actually did a lot of work on him before Harvoth ever got there. And they were looking pretty hard at JJ McCarthy. If Jackson Darts concussion issues continue to pile up, is he somebody that they bring in just as a look-see thing, right? Possibly. If the chargers want to have their tree lands replaced and essentially, maybe that's the kind of reclamation project that Jim would want to take on. But I'm sure there are other teams too that would take a flyer on him. But as far as career arc goes, he's got some work to do to pull out this what looks like a nose dive right now in terms of play, in terms of being on the same pages as coaching staff and commitment level, I guess. I don't know how you described it like that. But it's a little worrisome right now and it's not what we were sold on him being coming out of Michigan.

38:23Talking to Eric Edholm from Yahoo Sports. So when I asked you about, you know, kind of hunches on sleeper teams, by the way, I feel the same way about the saints that you do. And I'm concerned about the injuries, but I really loved the way they finished up last year. But did you consider Washington? I did. You know, the thing that's helped me back and again, it's like you're going off preseason reports. You know, you don't get to see a full picture in the, or sorry, in training camp reports, you don't get to see a full picture in the preseason. But it teams that have offensive line questions like they do, it just really makes me slam the brakes a little bit. You know, is it a division where a team can emerge? I think so, right? I mean, I don't think the giants have yet arrived. I don't know that the Eagles are this unassailable force. I don't know that Dallas is, you know, such a darling team now that everybody has to thrust them forward. There's still questions until proven otherwise. And it's not as if Washington doesn't have a lot of exciting things going for it,

39:26right? Jane Dale's still being the biggest one in my opinion even after last year. Still a lot of good things to fall back on. And I think they're smart enough to know. And I wrote about that in that piece you mentioned earlier, just in terms of David Blau wanting to make sure that you don't take away Jane's biggest weapon, which is his running ability, or you know, one of his biggest weapons, but also knowing that he has to be preserved. Can that happen? Can an under center play action offense work with a team that is questioning what they have on the offensive line? I don't know. That's the biggest thing that's probably holding me back right now. Because I think that, you know, defensively you'll see some improvement, but I'm just wondering about that group right now. All right. So you wrote for today in Yahoo on Yahoo Sports commanders David Blau Eagles, Sean Manion face off in week one battle of journeyman cubies turned play calling

40:29saviors. That's the headline. I know you don't write the headline, but which of the two quarterbacks do you think fits best with his new coordinator? Jalen Hertz with Manion or Jalen Danie's David Blau? Yeah, the thing about Blau is he's been in the building the last two years. You know, it's a little bit different with Manion coming from Green Bay and he'd been the, you know, the assistant QB coach and then elevated a quarterbacks coach and then imported as the Eagles offensive coordinator. Remember that was a long search too. They went through some big names. You know, he was, he was not the highest touted guy on that list. And again, who knows what, what that's worth, but with Blau, they saw in the building what he could bring. And I think obviously you kind of tap into that, that backup quarterbacks mind. They're always watching the game. They always have to be prepared at a moment's notice, you know, preparing like their starters every single week, even though they know they're probably not going to get a staff. I think that helps create some kind of football mind right there that's that's pretty good. And so

41:33knowing what Jayden already does well, having worked with them the past couple years, I think may give him a subtle advantage. I don't know that, you know, it's really hard to compare the two guys or it's slightly different phase of their careers. Jalen Hertz has great. He's already got a football MVP in his belt. You know, he's been a football, or sorry MVP runner up. You know, so he's had some some seasons and some moments where he's been truly elite and some others where the limitations have been, have been shown. We don't have this big a body of work on Jayden, but the highs have been pretty darn high. And if you can keep this guy healthy and upright, you know, that kind of quiet assassin thing that he's got going on can be really lethal. I look back to that Chargers game last year and think, man, if we could have seen 12 games of that, you know, or just the majority of the season of that, it would have been a far different season. So just from a familiarity standpoint, I think that's the most, you know, encouraging element of that relationship. Are the Eagles better off without AJ Brown? I think it kind of forced them in, to me,

42:42it felt obvious at a certain point last year. This wasn't going to work. So they had plenty of times to sort of craft the idea of like, all right, how do we replace them? It's not going to be a one for one replacement. We're going to have to do it with different body types, different types of players. I think on TAB and Wix, it can end up being an underrated guy for him this year. It was a little bit lost in the shuffle in Green Bay. Obviously, I'm sure Manion had a little something to do with that in terms of knowing what he saw behind the scenes. And then obviously McHy Lemon has been a little slow to acclimate. We'll see how involved he is early, but you know, they have options there. Devante has obviously been a really good co-number one or, you know, whatever you want to call him. I think he can step up a little bit more and be filled out, helpful that role too. Bringing back Dallas, Gotter, you know, and adding a little more, sort of juice to the tight end room with Elias Dowers, you know, just collectively, it may not be able to do it one for one, but as a group, I think they can help elevate the entire

43:47offense by not having a guy who as good as he was still kind of demanded high volume targets and everything else. He had to be a big part of the offense for that to be successful, but it wasn't always successful when they threw the ball his way. So, you know, at some point, you just have to realize that this isn't working. He may be a great player for somebody else, but it wasn't going to happen here. Last one. And it's more of sort of a league question. Have we entered a new era, Eric, where defense is back and you can win and you can win it all with a great defense because I do think we went through, I don't know, 15, 20 year period where great offense was trumping great defense. And yet the last two years, the Eagles dominated with defense, obviously, through their playoff run in that super bowl game, especially against the chiefs. And then last year, really, I mean, Seattle, New England got there with its defense in the postseason. Seattle got there led by its defense. We saw, you know, Houston was really close to,

44:52you know, making it, you know, if they just punted it 10 times instead of letting CJ straddle drop back, they probably would have been there. Is it a new kind of, or have we entered a new era here where defense is ahead of offense? I'm glad you brought up Houston too because they're the team that I think could help prove this theory, right, or help push it forward in terms of, hey, maybe, you know, everything is cyclical in the NFL, right? Offices go big, defenses go small, you know, whatever, everything is an adjustment to what the other side of the ball is doing. And there's always these trends that happen, whether they're two-year trends, five-year trends, decade-long, whatever, but they exist. And they do happen, right? And, you know, we've seen the run game kind of cycle back into the NFL and passing was all the rage that was the bottom NFL. Now, more, yeah, I mean, that we're getting back to like kind of old school philosophies in some respect. So I don't know that we'll ever have, you know, a full reversion to back to that, but Seattle proved they can win with that formula. I think the Texans, if CJ Stroud, like you said,

45:56can just make that one incremental jump to being more reliable and more of the player we saw as a rookie with that defense and what they have? I don't see how they couldn't be a super bowl contender. So yeah, that would prove that theory is very legit. I'm willing to accept that it's possible now. And I think defense is certainly play a big role, but certainly it's bigger than it was a decade ago. I mean, I remember going to that Super Bowl where Indianapolis were the giants and patriots. I think both had bottom five defenses. And to get to a Super Bowl, that idea was crazy in years past. Well, Indian New Orleans, it was the same thing, right? Same thing. Yeah, that's the call. Yep. They were all though. I think they were lied on takeaways. That's that's kind of the, you know, that was the thing back then was like third down red zone takeaways. That's all we need. We don't care about yards, you know, so, but now we see these dominant units and think that maybe some of them are capable of just destroying a really good offense.

47:02Always enjoy this with you. Thanks. Thank you. Yeah. Enjoy week one. We'll talk soon. Thanks, Eric. All right, you too. Ben. See you. Yep. Eric at home. Everybody from Yahoo Sports all of our NFL opening week conversation on the team 980 is presented by hands free sketchers, slip-ins, just step in and go. Ben standing next.