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Welcome back. It is Thursday evening March 26th, and if you've got bets riding tonight,
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you need to hear this right now. We're tracking live odds, late breaking injury news, and
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sharp money movement across tonight's biggest games. Jump into Calche, Polymarket, or your
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prediction market app of choice, we'll be using Polymarket's data to track where the
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smart money is going. I'm Alex Mercer, Marcus Webb is here with me, and we have a lot to
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get through. Let's get into the daily sports evening edition. All right, Marcus, let's do the
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roll call. Morning picks, one by one, we need a status on each. First up, kings versus magic.
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We flagged this one early. What are we looking at heading into tip off?
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So the king's magic situation, it's actually gotten worse for Sacramento since this morning.
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We're still monitoring for a final tip, but the injury report is historically bad.
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Nine players on the injury report for Sacramento, subonus out with the meniscus,
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Levina with the finger, Westbrook out with the toe. Rookie, Maxime, right now is literally
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anchoring the interior for them tonight. The magic are favored by 15.5. Hold your Orlando side
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positions with conviction. 15 and a half points. That's not a spread. That's a statement.
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Okay, second pick this morning, also on the board, Pelicans versus pistons. Marcus has that
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position looking still monitoring for live score confirmation, but here's the narrative update.
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Cade Cunningham is out. Not questionable. Out. Collapsed lung, pneumothorax, indefinite.
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That's your MVP candidate gone. The offensive load shift to Jalen Durin,
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who's been shooting 72% from the field over his last 10 games, so it's not nothing,
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but losing Cunningham at 52 and 20 on the season? That changes the calculus significantly.
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On the Pelican side, Jeremiah Thears had that 21 point breakout at MSG. He's expected to see
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heavy minutes. Trey Murphy's ankle is game time. We're watching this one closely.
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Right. Fears has been the story for New Orleans. Kid is not slowing down.
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Third on the roll call. Arkansas, Razorbacks versus Arizona Wildcats, sweet 16 action.
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Where do we stand? Still pregame monitoring. But look, Calipari has this number four seed
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Razorback squad playing with zero fear. Darius A. Cuff Jr. dropped 36 in the last round. 23.3
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per game on the season. The concern and its real is Arizona's rebounding. They've out rebounded
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opponents by 49 total in the tournament so far. Arkansas was near the bottom of the SEC and
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rebounding percentage. That's a mismatch that can decide a sweet 16 game in the second half.
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Big time. Okay. Fourth morning pick. Illinois fighting. Illinois versus Houston Cougars.
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This is the one I want to spend time on tonight. Morning status. Still pre-tip. But the injury news
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has sharpened the picture considerably. Illinois is down center. Jason Jackson ruled out plus
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a key versatile defender. That's real front court depth gone against a Houston team that is
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sleeping in their own beds tonight. Two miles from the Toyota center. This is not a neutral
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site game. It is functionally a Houston home game and Keaton Wagler. Samson said he spent the whole
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week watching tape on him specifically after that 46 point game at Purdue. Exactly. That tells you
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everything when Kelvin Samson is calling out a specific player by name in a press conference.
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His defense is ready for that player. All right. Let's get to the new money. Too late plays tonight.
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Both on games already in our portfolio. Marcus walk us through the first one. Okay. So this one is
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a player prop and it's sitting at a price that I think is genuinely mispriced. We're going
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Palo Banchero under 8.5 rebounds tonight against Sacramento on Polly Market. This is trading around
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62 cents on the under and I think it should be closer to 75. 62 cents on a guy averaging 5.1
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boards over his last five games. 5.1. That's the number. He's had the under in four of his last
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five games and here's the thing people are missing. His usage has completely shifted to the perimeter.
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He's averaging 36 points over his last two outings. When Banchero is in scoring mode like this,
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he is not crashing the glass. He's pulling up from 18 feet and Sacramento's front court situation
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when Del Carter, Jr. is back for Orlando, right? Averaging 7.3 rebounds per game. He's going to
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eat up those interior boards that subonus would normally contest and with a 15.5 point spread,
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there's a real blowout scenario where Banchero doesn't even play the fourth quarter. Reduced
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minutes equals reduced rebounding opportunities. Now, because we're recording and you may be hearing
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this 10-15 minutes from now, if you can still get the under at 65 cents or better, that's the play.
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If it's already moved past 72 cents, let it go. Smart. Don't chase it. Second,
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later. Adam is still standing strong on this one. Minus 7.70 to advance against Sen Peters.
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This is likely a more conservative play compared to the sharper bets we've talked about,
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but with a 5-1 scoring advantage and Sen Peters losing last week's stars Chavez and Anderson,
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the odds are heavily favored in Tennessee's steady hand. It is small Houston's defense allowed
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0.839 points per possession through the first two rounds. They're shooting 31.5% from the field
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against opponents and now Illinois comes in without Jackson's anchoring the middle.
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Houston turns it over 8.4 times per game, which is the national best. They do not beat themselves.
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Illinois needs chaos to win this game and Houston is the least chaotic team in the country.
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Keaton Woggler is going to have to be extraordinary. He might be. He dropped 46 on Purdue,
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but Samson has had a full week to scheme for him specifically. I'll take the cougars.
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Conditional. If you're hearing this close to tip and Houston is still under 62 cents,
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that's value. If it's already 68-70 cents, still reasonable, but size down.
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Houston, tip off tonight at the Toyota Center 939 PM Eastern. Arkansas and Arizona get going
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earlier 709 PM Eastern. King's Magic and Pelicans pistons both NBA games tipping off in the 7 o'clock
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hour. So if you're acting on any of these, the window is closing right now.
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Rabbitfire final portfolio for Thursday night. Marcus, let's go.
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One Orlando Magic to cover the 15.5 spread against the depleted Sacramento roster.
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Nine men on the injury report. Hold it. Two, Pelicans pistons monitoring with
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Cunningham out, watched the Durin usage in the fears minutes before committing.
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Three, Arizona's rebounding advantage over Arkansas is the key variable in that sweet 16 matchup.
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We're watching the glass battle closely. Four, Palabin Cherro, under 8.5 rebounds, 62 cents on
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polymarket, get it at 65 or under. Five Houston Cougars minus 2.5 over Illinois 58 cents.
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Home City Advantage elite defense Illinois front court depleted. That's the card.
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That's the card. Five positions, two sports, one Thursday night. Stay locked in.
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Before we let you go, it is Thursday, which means tomorrow morning we are dropping the ledger
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recap full accounting of every pick this week. What hit? What missed? Where the market moved
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against us and what we're carrying into the weekend. You do not want to miss that.
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It's been a strong week. We'll lay it all out. We will. That's the evening edition for Thursday,
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March 26th. Thank you for writing with us on prediction market HQ. Opinions expressed
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if for informational purposes only that response.
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Hey, it's Marcus. Thanks for listening to prediction markets HQ daily sports. What you just heard
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