Iran war leave U.S. bases in Gulf facing uncertain future

0:00192 days. That is how long it has been since the US and Israel began a war against Iran. Iran immediately blocked shipping through the strait of her moves and launched counterattacks across the Persian Gulf, targeting US forces on air bases in Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Navy's fifth fleet in Bahrain. More than six months later, the future of those bases and US troops in the region remains uncertain. We are joined now by NPR's International Correspondent in the Gulf Aya Batrawi and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Aya, let's start with you and what you're hearing in the Gulf from Arab allies that have long hosted thousands of US troops, leaving it would offer them protection from adversaries like Iran. So I'm wondering does that model still hold? Yes, Scott. So this is one of the most sensitive questions right now for the US and Gulf allies. In Washington, that's because any permanent troop reduction could be seen as a sign of weakness

1:00to Iran. And here in the Gulf, there are two realities holding firm. The first is that the presence of US troops who launched attacks on Iran from these bases is partly why these Arab countries were attacked by thousands of Iranian missiles and drones during the war. The other reality is that there's no replacement to US defense in the Gulf. Bidazab, a former advisor at the Pentagon who's now with trends research and advisory explains it like this. It's overstated to say that they are fundamentally rethinking everything. No, no, they understand that there's no alternative to the Americans. And the Americans is not just the weapon. The Americans is everything that comes with it. He says that includes training and political influence, intangible things that they can't, for example, get from China. So he says despite its flaws, the US is still the best defense partner Gulf Arab states have. Are these countries questioning though, whether the host sprawling US bases going forward? So in an apparent reference to the US security umbrella and what it actually offers, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman Majd Al-Anzari told an audience in the UAE just yesterday that

2:04this war revealed the security architecture of the Gulf was based on a quote fragile deterrence. It took one drone to disrupt, not disrupt actually, reduce the capability of a country that Qatar reduced LNG by 17 percent. One drone that's probably in all its supply chain did not cost any more than 100,000 dollars. So he's saying it's got that cheap drones cost the world. It's liquefied natural gas supply from Qatar, which had a halt production when its main complex was hit in the war. In other words, he's saying 10,000 US troops that were stationed in Qatar couldn't deter that attack. Tom, I'm going to bring you into this conversation now to talk more about those US troops because right now some of the troops and sailors that were in the region have been pulled out. I'm curious what you're hearing from US officials about the future of US troops in the Gulf. Well, Scott, officials are still assessing the way ahead. Back in April, Pentagon controller Jay Hurst told Congress, it depends on how we decide to rebuild to those facilities or if we do. With Bahrain at a recent

3:07town hall with sailors, a chief of naval operations, Admiral Darryl Coddle was asked when sailors would return to this fifth fleet hub of operations so they can and they and their families could collect their personal belongings. He gave a blunt answer. We're not getting back in there anytime soon. I just want to be completely honest with that. And one official I spoke with said it's possible Bahrain would become what's called an expeditionary base, meaning really beer bones with no dependence. Transparency has been a real challenge with this administration with this Pentagon. Tom has the Pentagon been forthcoming about how much damage has been inflicted on these bases or how many thousands of troops have been pulled away from them. Well, at that hearing back in April, Pentagon controller Hurst told Congress he does not have a final cost estimate for the damage to bases and facilities. Of course, since then, there have been many more Iranian attacks on US locations throughout the region. Analysts say you're looking at damages in the billions of dollars and maybe 16 or so US locations that have been hit. Pentagon really hasn't been forthcoming with

4:11much information at all about the war or the number of troops pulled out. As far as Bahrain, we know there were some 8,000 military personnel there, personnel there before the war and now it's less than a hundred, some 1300 family members were evacuated as well. And the question of transparency in this administration also underpins that bigger question of what is the US strategy in the Gulf today? What are you hearing about that? So Scott Gulf Europe states say US policy has been unpredictable and unreliable for more than a decade now stretching back to the Obama administration in that first deal with Iran. And they believe it heavily favors Israel and Israel's political whims. So some Gulf countries are racing to build their own domestic defense industries and broaden their security ties. You can see this with the Abraham Accords between the UAE and Israel that established ties several years ago. The UAE then used Israel's iron dome as part of its defense in this war. And then this summer there was the Mecca agreement between Pakistan, Turkey,

5:13and Saudi Arabia for joint defense. But there's no indication still, Scott, that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait or Qatar are telling the US to lower their troop numbers indefinitely. They seem to be waiting for the US to actually have a clear policy of what it wants to do. And in the meantime, they're rushing to defend their oil and gas facilities and protect their economies from this expanding more. Just today, an air base in oil facilities in southwestern Saudi Arabia were struck by Iran-backed Yemeni hoodies and dozens of people were wounded there. And Tom, in the meantime, there's ongoing strikes between Iran and the US. Yeah, that's right. The US hit three Iranian crude oil tankers over the weekend. And after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward US warships, and it looks like the US is hitting more locations on Iran's Carrag Island. Scott NPR also confirmed a Washington Post story that the US is investigating the likelihood that a bomb from a US Navy jet was responsible for an explosion at a wedding party last week in southern Iran that led to the deaths of at least two women and two children and left scores wounded.

6:18That is NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman, as well as international correspondent in the Gulf A. of Atrawi. Thanks to both of you. You're welcome. Thank you.