Is Washington Negotiating Russia’s Terms to Ukraine? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

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1:01Hey everybody welcome to another episode of eyes on geopolitics. I'm here with Jonathan Hackett. Mick Mulroy, Andy Milburn and myself and he's leaving. C.A.D. Good seeing you. Make congratulations on your daughter getting married. Thank you. Slon. You're welcome. Yeah. And we got a lot cooking as usual. We just had uncle Steve Wickoff and Jerry Kushner head over to Moscow to talk to Putin. And now they are in currently where shooting this right 11 a.m. on Sunday. Eastern time they are now in Ukraine talking to Lensky. I didn't really see a lot of like the readout. I want to really talked about in Russia and stuff like that. I did make a joke on Twitter that they went to get their marching orders from Putin and then are going to Ukraine to like give Zalensky a laundry list of stuff. I did see a little bit of some stuff. A clip of like Wickoff kind of just glazing Putin basically which was incredible to me.

2:06Like we're going to we're going to be old and we're going to be thinking about these is really good times like bro you're not tall. You're not leasing a strip wall brother. This is like people dying every single day in a legal invasion by Russia into Ukraine into a city. It's not going to be a threat to Ukraine into a sovereign country, democratic country. So not exactly like just feel good thing to be talking about in like what's such kind of very blase and say where you guys at. What do you think is going to come out of this. Did you get any read out as to what they were talking about what the where there any like specifics. On the substance of the meeting also they discussed US Marine veteran Robert Gilman who had been imprisoned in Russia. Unlawfully for four years because he was teaching in Russia. He was held there as a political prisoner and last month the US negotiated for his release and in this meeting just this weekend. The delegation thanked Putin for releasing him so the question is what was exchanged.

3:09That's not been discussed. I don't think what was exchanged for that person to that American to return home. So I think that's important for people to pay attention to as well that these things aren't free. Russia is not releasing people for charity. There's absolutely something that was given in return and it would be interesting to see what that thing was. Besides what you already mentioned Mick which are all very important like strategic level things. There was a more tactical issue I noticed when Kushner was getting off the airplane. He was wearing white Nike tennis shoes jeans and a black t-shirt and everybody else was in a suit including a cural demetri of the presidential envoy which is the equivalent of Whitcoff but on the Russian side wearing a full black tailored suit clearly indicating you know. Sartorial decisions are decisions and people choose to wear with their wearing to send a message if you remember when the CEO of Twitter was in Congress testifying he famously refused to wear a suit even though the dress code is a suit and refused to you know dress appropriately.

4:09I feel like Whitcoff is sorry a Kushner is doing something like that in this meeting where he's intentionally dressing down. Just something interesting that I noticed in the image if you look at it. And also Demetri have said so he took a bunch of pictures and released some pictures on his ex account and he said welcome to Moscow peacemakers. That was how it was advertised on the Russian side in Russian and through task media was that these are peacemakers arriving in Russia which is something very interesting as well. I will say that I hate Kushner as much as the next person does. He wore that like when he got off the plane but in the meeting with Poon he was suited up. True true. Yeah. I mean if you've done these kind of flights when you're like for example when I was at the couple of embassies we would get these diplomatic or these distinguished visitors coming in you know usually a secretary or somebody higher than that. There's there's a protocol there's a dress code there's very specific ways that you have to appear as soon as you get off the aircraft. You know for example one time we were receiving the secretary of state in a country I was in and the secretary of defense as well. And the senior person on my side of the delegation forgot his tie and because he forgot his tie all of us had to remove our ties because we couldn't be dressed above his level so like this is like carefully orchestrated stuff.

5:19That was not an accident and it wasn't just because he wanted to be on casual Friday there was there was a choice in how he dressed. Yeah I mean I would say that is that that's such a pathetically minor gesture compared to you know the. The central part of this is this at the pattern the pattern since where we now so the pattern since last year early last year is that we send. We the United States we send the same and boys to Moscow first they come away with the gesture right in this case the release of. From the Ormond and then they carry the Russian framing to Kiev and to Europe so you know whatever the intent whatever Krishna is wearing the sequence in which the United States is doing this makes Washington kind of the broke Russia's terms right rather than the backer of the side it's supposedly allied with which is Europeans and and Ukraine.

6:24And so you know that's that's one thing I find disheartening Putin's gone a reason to stop right as long as we do it this way he believes that time favors him you know I get it that absolutely the Russians are losing what to us is an incomprehensible amount of people in the front every month but. Until that translates into some grounds while moving in Russia and even then it's it's hard to see it affecting Putin or putting him in a bind I mean in return you know Ukraine is having a manpower crunch something by the way I predicted on sub stack two years ago. West and attention has been firmly on Iran and US administration keeps showing up in Moscow you know so I mean negotiation only works I'm laughing a little bit here because we don't appear to be very adept at negotiation the out of the deal but negotiation only works when the other side thinks that continuing costs more than negotiating right or agreement to a settlement.

7:35And nothing in our current approach changes that calculation for Putin I mean he Putin's concessions are all theater you know Gilman's release a weekend pause that costs Russian nothing it buys headlines and you know they just kind of treating them as goodwill rewards and and it just invites more it really seeds ground again to the Russians. I also would I one thing I found like kind of weird is like every time that they would have a it would be reported that we're talking with the Lanskiers of let's he's coming to America and stuff like that President Trump always have a phone call with Putin beforehand and to me just the layman it looks like what it looks like when would cough and cushion go to Moscow first before they go to Ukraine it kind of looks like with they're getting their marching orders and essentially going to negotiate Russia's terms. So you you create even with the phone calls with Trump it always it's happened like multiple times before Trump met with Zelensky. I don't know if that's protocol or whatever but like it seems like why the fuck do the Russians keep talking first why don't we get what the Ukrainians want be like this is what they want bro like an ex in your invading a country dude like who were you to dictate her you're not doing it well who were you to do dictate terms.

9:01That's my that's my point you know and there's another point to doubtless are regional allies in the Middle East are watching right so we are every dog a dog are probably drawing conclusions from how Washington treats Kiev also the Iran negotiators are looking at this think about how differently we're approaching the Ukraine Russia negotiation versus the Iran US Israel because there's three countries on both of these conflicts that are you know negotiating in different ways. The US first of all would never visit Iran to negotiate before talking to Israel first of all right they also don't call the Iranians first to talk about what they're going to talk to Israel about before talking to Israel in Israel's on our side and Ukraine's on our side and just look how starkly contrasted those two approaches are to how the US is approaching both of these conflicts neither of which are going in the US's favor to the exact degree that we wanted to go. But it's just kind of interesting to look at that choice and it's the same people's with coffin cushion or it's the same human beings on on both of these teams right you know in deference to.

10:04The section of our audience who are downhearted by the fact that we're always pointing out bad things and suggest that we are being overly pessimistic. I would say there's not well there's not a lot to be too optimistic about but. In terms of solutions you know I mean it's it's simple here go to key at first agree the terms with Zelensky and the Europeans then present them in Moscow. And then you know the other thing is put leverage on the table before the talks right put say I mean look what we're doing against Iran do the same against Russia secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude. Go off to the Russian shadow fleet the banks that that are aligned with Russia. You know in for in force all of these things the same way that we're enforcing the Iran blockade. Russia's you know and John Kremlin from wrong Russia's budget it's war budget runs on oil revenue and and so the same tools that squeeze Iran will will probably work against Russia.

11:12And then at the same time restore the weapons pipeline and say so publicly right. Into I know I get it I understand all the arguments are got a good friend has seen executive Lockheed Martin so understand all the arguments about Patriot interceptors but. But step it up you know. Still we could still be able to do that raise Ukraine to higher priority for Patriots and long range long range precision fires. You know all of these things and yeah as I said and now sit and stop. You know as far as Ukraine stop leaning on Ukraine to pause the air will I mean Ukraine steep strikes are the one lever that actually reaches Russian decision making you know and we've talked about the pressure they're putting on the Russian. So it's a significant amount of their oil refinery of their energy infrastructure based on oil is getting hit.

12:16And harassing the rear area in those deep strike scenarios it's it's not just a one for one thing like you just strike and that's the damage it also has a moral effect on the population it demoralizes those who are connected to those industries and it kind of it goes far deeper it's got an exponential impact if you're able to strike something far far inside the country versus at the front line it brings the war outside the theater into the place where the people think they're safe. And that has a huge impact. I have a question if you're Ukraine right and you kind of see the messaging right because like obviously us is you know pretty focused on Iran and what's going on there. But when you see like the like Scott percent go on the news and talk about how the reason oil is spiking up a little bit is because. The Ukrainians are striking oil infrastructure in in Russia as if that's like a bad thing and like kind of comparing Ukraine and what they're doing with those deep strikes on oil infrastructure to like Iran closing the straight or her moves and you know and blocking shipping essentially.

13:28The fact that like I don't know if those are talking points that are given or this guy's just flailing because everything he's done is fucking hurt the economy more and more percent but to like lump Iran and Ukraine into the same kind of basket it's it's very different right because on paper Iran is our enemy right like whether you believe that this war that we started was a good thing or not. So Ukraine's not the enemy it's like very clear Russia's the enemy and it's weird that this administration particularly does a lot of like spinning for lack of a better word for Russia. If you're Ukraine and you're seeing this like I know we need it's a delicate situation and need the info they need our intel and stuff like that. But at what point are you like guys who's fucking side are you really on. The problem with rainy season says is a lot of the sorry make your little you're a little lagged I think you're like a few seconds back.

14:34Let's go make and then John you pick up right after make. Okay. Yeah so I was going to say is the Ukrainians don't have a choice this is how Russia raises money to fight the war so if they don't go after their ability to fund himself just like we're going after the. Iranians ability to fund or third like we're having an effect. The Iranian economy is in a free fall right now. That's what the Ukrainians were trying to do they're trying to cut off the source of funding for the Russians and one thing I wanted to point out to like internet went down is. Russia's help in Iran they actually came out and announced relatively recently that they're going to do everything they can to help Iran get past the economic restrictions that the US is putting on them so. The fact that they're not our friends clear and they're providing I think a lot of the intelligence that they're using to say and I know we're going to get to it target our military so.

15:35Ukraine has no choice they're fighting a war against a very large enemy who started it and Russia is clearly not our friend they're they're doing what they can to help Iran. Basically deal with our strategy which is to economically isolate to regime and cut them off with their funding so. I think it's clear I mean people have different opinions but I don't believe that's an opinion I believe that's that's pretty much a fact. Hello everyone if you're here in this you are not a member of the patreon you can get your hands on. Add free episodes that come out early and you can ask us questions maybe we'll answer them you can also watch the team house podcast completely add free and early and you can also watch it live as we interview our guests. And it's the best way to support the channel so if you can if you're open to it you can go to patreon.com slash the team house that link is in the description we appreciate the supporters and we hope you would consider being one so it's patreon.com slash the team house thanks guys.

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17:45Enjoy big savings with red hot deals at vans and Albertsons this week at vans and Albertsons baby back pork ribs are 299 per pound with membership wear applicable limit 3 racks and ballpark hot dogs. These hobbies are receptor Gentlive large moreved to income stay learners before making it onurun couple order wontgroans canals i came in Los Angeles is its top in city sports and everything lived in a dictionary but it's not true there isn't any belie neverte down for anything that reaches us i wasной McNamara Beach телефон drugstead in the case of it 999 First few longer during this time could be taken or virtual combat between these two theaters since 2021 and even earlier, obviously, but the alabluga shahead drone factory in Russia is a key thing to point at that there is a unity on their side over both theaters. It's not about the US thinking both are connected. It's those adversaries believe they are connected both militarily and financially. And a great thing to point out for the financial side, the Caspian sea route between northern Iran and Russia

18:51is a key trade node that they control. You've got other countries in the the caucuses region that are either aligned with Iran or aligned with Russia or neutral or aligned with Turkey and Turkey is allowing it to occur. And that Caspian sea route is providing a lot of trade not just oil and gas and things like this, but food and other materials that Russia or Iran, depending on which material it is, can't get their hands on internationally. And they have this kind of closed domestic sea route that they're able to, it's as if the US and Canada were friends again and we were shipping back and forth across the Great Lakes. You can kind of think of the Caspian sea like this. It's an open space for them that it's hard for the rest of the world to access. So that's something important between those two countries that they're both helping each other in both of these conflicts. And then the way that we're going after Russia with sanctions, there are plenty of sanctions against Russia. Don't get me wrong. But it's about what do you do with them? And there is a great article in the Wall Street Journal last week about the Russian oligarch yacht seizures. So we've been seizing a bunch of these big expensive yachts. The problem is there's

19:56one for example in Italy that's just sitting there docked. US taxpayers have to pay for all the staff, all the food, all the fuel, the docking fees, the dry dock fees. We're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars a month to keep these yachts alive while we have sanctioned and captured in these foreign ports. And there are dozens of these yachts. We're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars. The US taxpayers are paying. So it's like, where is the actual punishment going? Because the US government and through taxpayers are keeping these yachts that belong to these oligarchs in pristine condition while they're captured from the oligarchs. So it's like we're taking care of the oligarchs yacht for them. And I'm sure they can get another yacht because they're wealthy. So it's this very strange kind of offsetting that the US is doing where we have a very strategic view of sanctions. But as soon as they trickle down to the tactical level, we're kind of forgetting what we're supposed to be doing with these sanctions. We're thinking about what are the actual effects on the ground, both the oligarch and to the American taxpayer. I thought that was interesting. And I think readers should definitely check out that article.

21:00Yeah, I was going to say like take the staff off and just fucking sink. The other problem is they're trying to sell some of these and depending on which jurisdiction they're in, they're trying to sell them and like rename them. And the problem is insurance companies are like, we will not ensure that vessel because the person who owned that vessel before it was taken was a murdering psychopath working for the government of Russia. And they're probably going to murder the next owner of it. Like this is the concern that these insurance companies have. So just like the insurance companies in the Straits of Warmoves with like Maresk, for example, they're like, well, maybe you say it's safe, but is it safe? I don't know. I'm not going to bring my actuaries to tell me that that's actually safe enough to ensure. So of course, the buyer won't buy it because the buyer doesn't want to have an uninsured $50 million boat off the coast of Italy, right? So there's a huge challenge here where, okay, we've got our sanction, but okay, what next? I'm going to do the Ukrainian Navy. Yeah. Excellent idea. Just sailing into the Black Sea and let them deal with it. Let them shoot it like throw like send over a jet ski or drone jet ski and just let it

22:00under rip. Take the people off it. Don't kill the staff. All right. I'm not I'm still a lib. Let's we were going to talk about the AI report. Let's do that next after this. Let's talk about Iran and the hypersonics and the fact that we can't stop them. John start us off with that and lighten us a little bit. So hypersonics generally are a big issue because they travel so fast that they're hard to defeat. And that's kind of the point is that with missiles because of physics, the more advanced our air defense gets, the faster a missile has to go to defeat it depending at what altitude and speed and things we have our air defense systems. So for example, like the pack three or the Thad or any of the like essay sevens on the on this Russian slash Soviet side, like these are all with numbers on them because those numbers are like the next generation because the other thing it's trying to defeat also has increased its speed and other things. So the hypersonic

23:01issue is like the latest generation of challenge where this thing is traveling so fast and at such a trajectory that it's almost impossible to stop because it not just you know the speed it's traveling but the way it's traveling. So if you look, you know, mathematically at this, it's very hard to defeat. So with that kind of like underlined of how challenging this is Iran is trying to use hypersonic missiles against US vessels in the Straits of Formos. So this is kind of a new development. They've been experimenting with hypersonics for a while. So has Russia, so has China, so has the United States, but less loudly. And you know, Russia is probably the loudest advertiser of it because they want to scare the other side. I mean, that's what deterrence is. It's making a credible threat public and making the other side know that you're willing to use it and that you will use it. So Russia is using this as a deterrent. Iran is not using as a deterrent. Iran is using it as a defensive mechanism because they're running out of options, right? So different different reasons for using the hypersonics, but they're trying to fire them at our like the George Washington, for example. Now we have very advanced systems like the Aegis and other systems aboard vessels and also land-based

24:06systems that can do some things, but so far they haven't struck a vessel probably because their GPS has been struggling to work properly, most likely not by accident. But once their GPS is able to work properly, let's say they use the Chinese global, the GNSS system that China has by do, they might be able to get past our GPS interference, right? So there's a real threat here that hypersonics could actually hit a vessel. And even if they didn't do it purposely, if they did hit a vessel even by accident, we're talking about a problem. Doesn't have to kill anybody. It just has to strike because then suddenly their level of competence is perceived to be much higher than we thought it was, which is again another problem we had in February when we thought their level of competence and sustainability was lower than we thought it was or it was higher than we thought it was and we had the war and we saw that wasn't true. So they're going to probably try more of these hypersonics strikes. It's kind of a low cost for them to test these out and all it takes is really one. They do. They actually use the hypersonics. Make hold on, let Andy go. Yeah, sorry.

25:10It's just a question. John, are they actually hypersonics? Or are they reentry vehicles? Some of the ballistic missiles that reenter and then have the ability to maneuver at the last minute? That's an excellent question. Andy, you're absolutely right. And actually, this is the same problem with the Russia advertisement of hypersonics where they said, oh, we used a hypersonic and then it came out that it wasn't actually a hypersonic. It was a modified medium range ballistic missile. And that's exactly the same situation here where you have something called the high bar, which is called the castle breaker or has some history behind the name, which I won't get into. That's to do with Jewish people. But this missile they've developed can actually maneuver upon reentry and also change speed after launch. And they've modified the motor on it for this purpose. So let's say it's coming toward the vessel, the vessel moves or the vessel launches some kind of air defense system or there's a jet that's trying to intercept it in the air. This missile is

26:10able to maneuver at that reentry point. Remember, ballistic missile for listeners ballistic just refers to the trajectory of the munition. So it has to launch and it has this curved exit up into the different levels of the atmosphere, depending on what kind of missile it is. And as it reenters, it has to change things about it. And older missiles could not change their impact point after they started reentering the atmosphere. And this missile that we're talking about, the high bar is able to change its trajectory after reentering the atmosphere. So not only can it change where it's going, it can also change its speed. And this is how Iran is advertising as hypersonic. hypersonic is a squishy word because there isn't actually such thing as a hypersonic missile yet anywhere in that anyone's used. But it does sound powerful to the world hearing this. And that goes exactly your point Andy that they're trying to make it sound like they've got some new super weapon. But really it's a faster, more precise, medium range ballistic missile that they're able to use. maneuverable reentry. Basically, which is, which is actually not new technology.

27:17It's all that technology. Right. And the ballistic missile itself people should remember is, is based on the V2 ballistic missile that the Nazis used in World War II against Britain. So this is actually pretty old technology all the way around. I mean, it's all just physics really. It's like how much can you pack on to this thing at what speed and what distance. And that's really what it comes down to make go ahead. Sorry. Yeah, it's in that, I mean, excellent description or Jonathan. And the other part of that is they get better every time. Right. So they're figuring out how to deal with each defensive systems, the gaps, the seams, the so there is, I think, legitimate concern that if they pair really high level intelligence, lessons learned every time this happens. And then potentially just get lucky. Right. I mean, that might happen too. This is going to go higher. Right. I can think we can all imagine if we're sitting here watching a smoking hole on the side of the USS George Washington. What's going to happen next? Right. So I think they're actually trying to

28:26strike it. I don't think you'd use this type of technology that they know is difficult to deal with. If it was just like a symbolic thing and it clearly showed they're really wanting to cause damage and casualties to the United States. I think it's going to probably increase as the economic pressure increases. And this is far from over one strike that kills sailors and Marines aboard one of our naval vessels. And this is this is going to shift dramatically. I think they know that they need to be told that. This is going to be, you know, whether we want it to escalate this substantially, we're not going to take high level casualties service minute. But without a major response. Yeah, and it's very similar to the USS Cole bombing, which remember that was a very low tech attack, but had a massive impact on Americans as it should. The Liberty incident that Israel struck the USS Liberty in 1967, June 1967, killed American sailors. That also had an impact,

29:29although relatively smaller. But it doesn't take a massive impact. I mean, the American culture toward the military is that any American casualty is a massive problem as it should be in our culture. I mean, that's how we are as a society. And they know that they don't need to make a mass casualty event like 9-11. They just need to kill one American soldier or sailor, airman or Marine. And that will have a huge outsize impact domestically inside the United States. The midterms are only a month and a half away. And they have their eye on that. It's funny. The term, though, and we've seen this with Russia, as you pointed out, the term hypersonic gets everyone's attention. But it's really our, I mean, I would guess, not guess, but informed speculation that the real problem continues to be interceptors. That's a real threat, right? Because the way to get through led ballistic missile defense is saturation. I mean, so the maneuverable reentry missiles, vehicles, whatever you

30:32want to call it, interceptors like the SM-3 intercept those blistening missiles before they enter the atmosphere anyway. So it doesn't matter a thing, maneuverable once they've reentered. But the real question is, do we have enough interceptors to sustain that? Can the Iranians build up a big enough inventory to saturate our defenses? Yeah. So talking about inventory, there was an AEI report that John Brotard attention about procurement. And John, give us the skinny on that. That's really interesting report. It does a kind of high level statistical analysis of a lot of publicly available information on US procurement, modernization, kind of comparing every year as far as the pre-law version of the National Defense Authorization Act for the past 40 years roughly, to see in the pre-version, like the draft version, what's in there? What is Congress asking for?

31:32What does Congress think is a priority? And I think it's interesting to look at that instead of the actual NDA because it shows what does Congress actually want, not what do they negotiate to become the law. So that does tell you more about what is the actual desire for specific procurement outcomes, specifically like the PAC-3, the THAD, missile defense, counterterrorism, these kind of things. Very interesting to look at. And one thing that they saw was the PAC-3 and the THAD being challenged, so to say, in procurement. In particular, the THAD is almost completely depleted. And what they've asked for is a five-year accelerated output model because we're 27 years behind on where our THAD numbers should be. That's a shocking, shocking number. And that's based on what we would need to actually defend against a peer adversary like Russia or China. And the AEI report, in particular, looks at China as the threat. So they're looking at what we need against China and looking at these National Defense Authorization pre-bills. And could we do it?

32:35And the answer is no. And the focus needs to be, according to this report, on hypersonics, like we were just talking about, on countering hypersonics, on counter UAS, on UAS, deep strike, long range, improvements. The aircraft carrier, Andy, will like this, is a problematic concept that should be reduced or eliminated in a conflict against China, according to this report, based on their analysis. So the peer threat is where our modernization should point not Iran, which is a regional actor and not even Russia, which is a kind of declining actor, especially in the last 20 years we've seen for sure. Their capabilities are not what they used to be, at least on a peer-to-peer level. China is a rising power, not just in the Navy, which has been, you know, loudly proclaimed that the production of Chinese vessels is going to overwhelm the U.S. naval fleets and so on. That's not as much the focus here. The focus more is on the air, space, cyberspace, the less focus on the sea as far as I read it. And the, you look at, for example,

33:39how much did we fund for our defense in terms of GDP? It's only 3.7% of our GDP. During the cold war, it was 7%, which is almost double spending on defense for GDP. So that's kind of interesting, because there is a lot of talk about, you know, one point, I think it's $3 trillion of defense spending, which is actually less than it was in the cold war as a percentage of GDP by half, which is very interesting, because, you know, these are big numbers, but inflation is a real thing, and we have to adjust back CPI to see what did it actually cost in the 80s, for example, for the Strategic Defense Initiative, you know, Star Wars. What did that cost in today's dollars? People's eyeballs might get a little bit bigger when they actually see what did we spend back then. And what are we spending it on now? Like, what do those dollars actually go now? Like, the PAC-3, for example, is an interesting development, and this report points it out, that it can go further than the Patriot missile. It's an intermediate solution just like the THAD, and it can protect ships. But we don't have enough of them. And the PAC-3 isn't just an interceptor that goes and, you know,

34:40throws fragmentation up in the sky, or tries to shoot something down when it launches. It's a body-to-body impact weapon that smashes into the other weapon, which is a different approach than other weapons we have. And this report kind of pointed out that our PAC-3 stocks should be dramatically higher than they are right now, not just to defend our allies and partners like Ukraine, but also to defend United States against a Chinese direct attack, right? So this is a very interesting report, because AEI has typically, it depends how you read it, but AEI is typically moderate or a little bit right. So this is kind of a report that's designed to speak to the administration, not so much to be a contrarian, I think. Yes, so the PAC-3, I mean, it's kind of scary if the numbers are correct. So the back in July, August, open source reports said that the depletion rate, and we don't have the exact, but depletion rate was somewhere between 65 and 80%, which leaves something like a thousand,

35:48maybe under that. And they get made very slowly every year. I think it's 600 a year. Is that how many? Yeah, so I mean, we've, we've fired something like 60, 80% of 2300. So we've fired, you know, about two, possibly, yeah, almost three years worth of, of PAC-3's, three years production wise in six months. And we haven't gotten anywhere really, you know, in our aims or whatever our aims are. Thank you, back. Please make go ahead. Does make it, I mean, we obviously need to correct this, right? We're, we're in a air-only war, regional war, with a mediocre military, and we're having this level of defense production issues. It's a, it's a multi-administration issue, right? So it's not

36:50just this one. It didn't just start, but this has to be addressed, because if, if we were going up against China, for example, just like Jonathan was describing, we'd be screwed. Daniel Turb, right? I mean, this is, this is, and we're seeing that our main adversaries do have production capability, right? North Korea providing how much of the munitions for Russia to fight Ukraine, they are addressing the issue. I realize we've spent a lot on our defense, but as Jonathan also pointed out, relative to during the height of the Cold War, we're not. And the war, the world's a dangerous place, and we need to be prepared. And right now, we're that low on precision guiding munitions and defense interceptors. This needs to be addressed. Obviously, we need to find cheaper alternatives, but we also need to figure out how to mass produce things that we would need in the case of a major,

37:52you know, global war. I hope it never happens, of course, but, you know, most people would say during the World War II, it wasn't just the fight men and women of the armed forces that wanted it, was the production capability of the United States. It just out-produced our enemies. So, you know, I don't have all the answers, so it's easy to point out the problems, but that needs to be addressed and it needs to be made. Just like we need to adapt all the autonomous fighting, it's going off, going on in Ukraine into our system, we need to figure out the defense production. I'm with you on the defense production, guys, so I'm going to cut in because as the citizen, you know, that's not part of the military industrial base, our defense industrial base. Star Wars was never fielded, right? It was a thing on paper we wanted the Soviets to know about, to be scared about shooting missiles our way. I get it, and to make them spend money, that they didn't have. And I'm sure it helped bring down the Soviet Union, for sure. One point, three trillion,

38:59guys, before we start adding, let's see if outside of the Marine Corps, the DOD can pass a fucking audit. Let's see where the money's going really. This is where I'm getting a little doji, where like actual like people that know what they're fucking doing, not doj, but like actual like, you know, being counters and whoever you need to do consultants bring in whoever you need to bring in, find where the fat is and fucking get rid of it. Yeah, and be relentless with it. Because the fact that this report where we should have 27 times more or whatever the fuck, what are we spending the money on? Where's the money going? Well, a lot of it goes on platforms, right? I mean, no, I get it, you know, the biggest the biggest source of DOD spending is personnel, but beyond that, you know, platformers procurement, and to the point that we talked about earlier here, yes, there should be a wake-up call. And the fact

40:01that we need to focus spending on more mundane things like interceptor stockpile, 155 munitions to prepare for that. There's a whole plant in Texas that's not fucking doing anything. It costs 500 million dollars. But you know, we're just scraping the surface on the interceptor discussion. When you think about it, it's not just about, we're not the only users, right? I mean, there are the Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain. So the Gulf countries, right, they all depend on us for pack freeze. And we don't know how many they've fired, but we suspect that the percentage that they've expended a far greater percentage than the United States has. I mean, that would stand to reason, right? Because they've been the main targets and they started off with fewer. But the Gulf is competing with the US, but also Ukraine, Poland, Germany for the same 600 rounds

41:01a year. So the people who say there is not a shortage of really bearing the hits in the sand. And from a rarse perspective, I mean, this talk about hypersonic is kind of a distractor, right? And we talked about the fact that what Iran has fielded is not a hypersonic. It's a maneuverable reentry vehicle. But that's not the point. So it doesn't need a missile that beats patriot or fat. It just needs to make the US fire interceptors that things start aren't worth those interceptors, right? So pack freeze, what, $4 million? We talked about this. So Shahehr does a few thousand, $10,000. I think that is 8 million. Peace. Yeah. So just continuing to force us to expend these interceptors is a is is liable to be to a more effective strategy than any high-end

42:03missile. Interceptors are really the other currency of deterrence in the region right now. And the whole credibility when I say, how US US air defense umbrella of a re-ad where I am now, Doha, you know, and Tel Aviv. It's really a function of how many rounds are in the magazine. And on your point about deterrence, Andy, let's say deterrence failed. And now we're in a war force on force with a peer actor, let's say China or Russia. We have these ICBMs that are designed to launch in a first strike, second strike, and there's all kinds of different nuclear strategies and things like this. But these systems that are underground that are ready to launch, as many of them have been there for 30 years, 40 years. And we haven't been able to test them or recalibrate them. Or if we have to press that button and launch, do we know for sure that they will actually launch that they'll launch the way we want them to that they'll strike where they're

43:03supposed to strike? There are so many questions along that launch line to the target that we haven't been able to test or reevaluate because of our treaties and because of the way that the world works. And they're sitting there and we're just hoping that they'll work. And it's not just us too. It's also China and Russia have the same problem, but they're not as constrained as we are on these strategic testing initiatives. And that's a concern to me is what happens if we do launch into a war deterrence fails, we press the button and that ICBM crashes in California. Or it explodes out on the platform. Like there's so many questions about, are we actually ready to fight not just forces on the ground, but with the full spectrum of weapons that we think with that we assume that we have if this war does start? And one thing I'll say is like how they're with us like trying to license or like the idea of licensing patriots or factories to Ukraine and Lockheed and the other defense primes being worried about them innovating them and making them cheaper. And I know Andy, I'm sorry, I don't want to point out

44:05your buddy who's an executive at Lockheed, but like who's who's who's his primary person he's worried about? Is it the defense of the United States or as his shareholders? Like let's be honest here, right? We should be able to innovate what's been going on the last four or five years with Ukraine. We should have been at a forefront of innovating or what we're supposed to be doing on defense. We see what's going on plain as day, right? drones are a big thing. And it's like we can't get we can't help but trip over ourselves. Like it's though it's amazing. And we have smart people that know what to do. And the fact that they we can't make decisions to implement those changes as a citizen is frustrating. And when I hear let's add more money to the defense budget. I'm like no, fuck off. Frankly, I mean am I crazy to think that there's no I mean anybody with a working frontal lobe would be like that. Your thoughts? We are our acquisition procurement system. And when

45:07we've talked about this and it's been written about endlessly, it's just not designed to innovate. And everything that we have read in about initiatives to change that have in the last year or so just been kind of diddling around in the margins. We are not I mean you you Ukraine is probably the most innovative has the most innovative defense industry in the world right now undoubtedly necessities the mother of invention. But we are it's we know in here. And we don't seem to be making a comprehensive coherent effort to change that. But you're right. I mean everything from drones, short range, air defense, armoured vehicles, right? We talked here about the fact that man to armoured vehicles are arguably

46:08already obsolete. And yet we still we we're still pouring money into them and depending on them. All of these things. Manned aircraft, right? We're still bemoaning the fact that we're losing predators at a very expensive rate in the Middle East. Well why are we still fielding predators? Why haven't we worked out how to make drones with the same capability or similar capability but mass produced? You know blue collar sophisticated drones, the rest of the world is doing that. You know the Turks are leading the Chahoch for instance on that. We are not. So yeah I don't you know this is one of those topics I I don't see a solution on the horizon when it comes to the US. A great example of that too is the MV-22 Osprey which was imagined up during the end of the Cold War to fight Russians that we thought would continue to be

47:10an adversary. Cold War ended. The MV-22 procurement continued development continued. It was built. There was no war for it. 9-11 happened suddenly there's a just by chance there is a need for it and now it feels like it should be part of our military but it is this like literally ancient concept as far as the speed of the military process goes the world goes that we're using because we think we need it. The Matt V is another example. We procured all these Matt V's for overseas contingency operations. We don't need them anymore. We bought a bunch of them for our allies and partners who also don't want them. There are tons of them just sitting in the Gulf on pavement, never used and will never be used. And Osha Kosh got paid for it and there's this whole maintenance program for it and all this that's just being spent on stuff we don't need because it was thought up and the thought takes so long to reach the ground that the ground that needs it doesn't exist anymore when it actually is ready. Mikalobe. Guinness. You actually. Do you know what I've heard

48:11splitting the G by the way? I've changed the subject who are failed to the splitting the G's and you drink again as your first sip you try to get it right in the middle of the G. So I have to try that too. We tried hard. My business partner is really good at it. I mean I agree with everything. This is this is you know it might seem well it shouldn't seem mundane to anybody quite frankly but this is one of the biggest issues we have to address as a nation national security. Don't care where side you're on you should just be on the USA side right we we don't want to war nobody should want to war but we should be prepared to win and I and I think we have the best military as far as like capabilities and people but we're just not keeping in and you know I'm biased obviously but one of the things the United States is known for is innovation. I mean that's what we do that's what we do we can do this we do do better

49:14and it's going to take you know some hard work probably on the committees right the Armed Services Committee I assume the Appropriations Committee but it's going to take both sides to really just kind of put the partisan stuff aside it's not about pointing fingers because you could point fingers at every administration when it comes to this and I think that's what needs to happen and it needs to be you know one of the top efforts right it's not just about spending money it's about spending wanting wisely right and you know that would be my two cents on this it needs to be number one part I completely agree with you Mick totally like and you see a lot of these new defense tech firms specifically ones that are focused on like UAS and counter UAS they're raising a lot of money and it feels like I want people I want these companies to actually believe it and not just be preaching it because they want to fucking raise 300 million so they're worth two billion dollars

50:17and they can exit by being sold to a prime and become rich and nothing gets fixed nothing it's done right like like are these companies the and the rils and even the smaller ones are they going to Ukraine are they fucking learning are they actually doing this to value to justify what their valuations are and I hope greed is not getting in the way of an actual problem that needs to be fixed and frankly I don't think that's happening gonna be on I think greed wins every time especially you see these valuations every week it's like another company got a hundred million dollars in seed fund and now it's worth a billion dollars and it's like are you producing fucking anything or you just have a really good pitch deck and you walk into these offices and you just people are sold and like yeah let's do this like I want to see I want to see actual fucking results rather than just just talk really from these defines companies primes and the little guy and the

51:20little guys were trying to climb up and disrupt or whatever the fuck they say in their pitch decks to try and like a uh u-an-on investors yeah and the other we already brought it up but the other aspect of this is we're moving so fast into new formal warfare that we got to keep up like there's a you you really talk to the people spend some time in Ukraine and I have like on the front lines and um there's gonna be really quick here where the first phase of a conflict has very little humans actually directly engaged even in the decision process right and I know people should be nervous about that but the problem is you talk to people who've really looked into this whether it's artificial intelligence or you know the next phase of this which could come within a few years and even though higher the super intelligence it moves so fast that putting a human in the loop actually slows it down to the point where if your adversary isn't you will lose right so you can definitely have a philosophical or ethical debate about it but the problem is we're moving so fast into this new world where

52:26automated systems paired with artificial super intelligence are going to be making a lot of the decisions including lethal right and it's happening and uh so you know we might have all these legacy systems which are doomed uh on on the you know next 10 years of her battlefield and we're still making them because it's made in a you know a district right that's I mean I get it I'm I understand the jobs but we're not we got to ensure that the people making the decisions about what weapon systems and stuff are the war fighters the people that actually are responsible for winning the war and not necessarily a jobs program uh for and they're all across the United States but I get the point but we have to make the right decisions on weapons procurement for the battlefield of the future so that we actually are successful and not just uh you know worried about particular plants because it just puts the plants to them right um there's a way to do both and

53:31so I yeah we could we should we can we should talk about this quite quite a bit go into your head guys do you think that's actually going to happen making you can go first then I want John and Andy and Tommy I think this is actually waking us up right now um the war in Ukraine and the war that we're in or on or on so I think this could happen yes if it wasn't if it was just a status quo then there's no forcing function necessarily we'd be all be happy thinking that we we are doing the right things but one thing about warfare it teaches you really quick lessons and uh innovation you know the mother of its says uh innovation is necessity and the mother of necessity is you're in a war Hackett I think if Americans are too distracted by each other they will not innovate the way that Ukrainians are because Ukrainians are united against something and Americans are disunited relatively speaking now it will be a challenge if that continues

54:38Colonel yeah you know I I hate to bring it back to something that may seem like a political statement although it's not the address goal actually had the army or all it was pushing you know with the army transformation initiative to put um the army's futures command and trade-off on on the right path of this right you know killing the the Apache um the grey eagles uh um m10 booker and and redirecting all that money into drones counter drone long-range precision fires cheap mass over exquisite platforms um it was really from an army perspective at least as the first serious attempt to reshape army procurement and that's really where most of the problems lie right now I mean you know the Navy is a different it's a different beast and we're going to be wasting

55:38money on aircraft carriers for as long as any of us live here um and and so I'm not sure um I'm I'm not sure we have seen the light you know it really we'll see whether that those efforts are sustained um but suddenly risk all got it now it seems as though not just procurement in the army but the army generally is is pretty rudderless even more so than the army normally is yeah then they kill that you know what then they say they were not they were getting rid of the uh unit that was going to be innovating drone and drone yeah the drone specifically yeah I'm talking about all me kind of the army transformation and the right of the the whole picture yeah this is what happens when you have inept people running the od or the the actual secretary it's just the fact that's

56:40the fact I mean there's a reason why things were leaking like a sieve in that place and they purge generals and it's still leaking like a sieve yeah I think again politics aside the modernization loss uh with riskal departing that's that's a concern so you know everything we've been talking about here intercept the economics cheap drones uh launch retrition a drisco was arguably the you know the one senior civilian trying to build a force around or taking them on both those lessons and trying to reshape the force around them um and that the I don't know the whole story I don't know much of the story about the your point was about the europe drone unit right that got shut down the unit I mean they were studying exactly what Ukrainians be teaching for three years um I don't know what the rational was for that but it's concerning certainly you know it's

57:40devoid of rational um boys anything else I'd never feel good after this ever uh I'm sorry that the listener but maybe one day we'll have some good good news to end the show with well mixed order got married so congrats there there you go that's some good news about the g right now you should right cheers it's better than Ireland by the way it is fact it's not just uh saying it's not just our urban legend it's right just one point please you know not to kick it off again but uh mix mix point about autonomous engagement right engage uh target engagement without having a human in the loop I mean we're already there uh not not us in the in the states yet but um the Ukrainians have and they don't advertise this but they've got uh you know they they've got drones that

58:43that do autonomous navigation they they fly to agree with out of GPS or link um and then terminal guidance right so right now the operator picks a target on the screen and the drone locks on and flies the last kilometer it so itself because um Russian jamming to avoid Russian jamming from cutting the video link um but then now what does that drone do in those last couple of kilometers it's autonomous engagement so the machine the drone finds chooses and strikes with no operator decision at all and the Ukrainians are doing that all right and they're saying hey no we still have a human in the loop but the human just gets the drone to that the last kilometer or two and then it's all up to the drone recognize the target make the decision to engage so materially there's nothing there's no there's there's already and and I'm you know the there's

59:43more than rumors that the Israelis are doing the same thing and those are on those were among our allies so undoubtedly our adversaries are able to that too that's concerning right I mean if you it's concerning on a lot of levels so I suppose on an on an ethical level but it's concerning because if you can do that if you can make these decisions at the edge right with not with I mean with masses of drones now now you've increased you've increased tempo beyond to a point where it's it the interception problem becomes harder and harder I just wanted to add some more good news right yeah some more to think about guys are pleasure as always I want everyone to go and check out the links in the description and his new books coming soon John's writing a new book and you can grab his books that are available now all those links are in the description link to YFISH security summit patreon.com slash the team mouse and help support

1:00:49the show you get both eyes on and team house episodes at free and early and you help support the show so please do that or consider doing that guys I love you happy Sunday enjoy big savings with red hot deals at Vons and Albertsons this week at Vons and Albertsons baby back pork ribs are 299 per pound with membership wear applicable limit three racks and ballpark hot dogs or hamburger buns eight count are 299 with digital coupon plus personal seedless water melons or cantaloupe are 199 each with digital coupon enjoy fresh and delicious savings for every meal hurry in these deals won't last visit vons or Albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save at Verbo we understand that even the best of plans sometimes need a little support so we plan for the plot twists every booking is automatically backed by our Verbo care guarantee giving you confidence from the very start whenever you need help it's ready before your stay through the

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