It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Texas’ Wild Primary: Cornyn vs. Paxton, Crenshaw’s Loss & Democrats’ New Star

In this episode of A Numbers Game, Ryan Girdusky breaks down the numbers behind the Texas primary elections and why the media narrative about what happened doesn’t match the data.

Ryan dives into the surprisingly strong showing from Senator John Cornyn, who led Attorney General Ken Paxton despite being massively outspent in polling expectations and facing intense grassroots criticism. What do the vote totals, spending gaps, and regional turnout actually reveal about the future of Texas Republican politics—and why might this race signal a coming leadership shakeup in the Lone Star State?

He also analyzes the shocking defeat of Congressman Dan Crenshaw, who lost his primary despite outspending his opponent 9-to-1. Ryan explains why the loss had less to do with national narratives and more to do with candidate popularity, donor sentiment, and grassroots backlash.

Then Ryan turns to the Democratic side, where state Rep. James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a high-profile primary. As the media begins portraying Talarico as a potential Democrat who could flip Texas, Ryan examines his record, policy positions, and the political strategy behind the party’s attempt to build the next national progressive star.

Along the way, Ryan explores:

The real numbers behind Cornyn vs. Paxton and why polling missed the mark

Why Crenshaw’s defeat shocked Washington but not Texas insiders

The controversy surrounding Rep. Tony Gonzales and his upcoming runoff

The looming power vacuum in Texas GOP leadership over the next decade

Why Democrats are betting big on James Talarico What the results mean for 2026 midterms and the future of Texas politics

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