Kevin's Smell Test: NFL Week 1 & CFB Week 2 picks!

0:00All right, I wasn't on radio last Friday, but I did it on my podcast and I tweeted out the picks as well. Week one, three zero and one, the three winners were Iowa, Penn State, and Tartan State. They play in Texas and they were getting a short number against bowling green and they won the game outright. Some of you said that may have been my most obscure, but also my most memorable smell test pick. I don't know. We've had some bad teams and some no name teams in the smell test before, but good job Tartan State for a three zero and one weekend the push was Florida State on Monday night in the Labor Day game, getting three against SMU. Some of you won that play and had FSU at plus three and a half. Look, last year was an exceptional year. It's hard to go 62.4% when you're doing season long picks.

1:03The philosophy for those of you unfamiliar is just kind of if everybody's lined up on one side and they're convinced that the line is wrong and somehow Vegas is misstepped, just go the other way and make sure that you understand that Vegas doesn't misstep. Odds makers don't screw up. That's why all of those big, beautiful hotels and casinos are all over the place. That's why everybody wants to be the house if you've got a brain versus being the gambler. And so it's mostly that, but over the years and many of you know this, I do and am familiar with many of the people that have been odds makers and bettakers offshore. And I kind of get some information as to where the sharp money is. And so it's kind of a combination of anti-public, but making sure that on the other side there is super sharp money on that side as well.

2:07Next year, 62.4% documented. It was my third best season out of the 20 that I've done the smell test. It started in 2006 when I was doing the show with Rigo on triple X ESPN radio. Yes, that was our station back then. And over 20 years, I've had 15 winning seasons, just five losing seasons last year, the third best in the history of doing the smell test. We'll try to do it again, but it's pretty hard to go 62.4% for those of you who don't understand, yes, when you hear that people are touting some sort of 70 or 75 or 80% hit rate, just know they are lying. Maybe for a weekend or two, but not for a season. All right, let's get to week two.

3:09And there are some games on here that just are absolutely made for the smell test. And it starts with tomorrow at high noon when Michigan hosts Oklahoma, Michigan coming off that very controversial win on the Hail Mary number two with the mysterious second being put back on the clock after an absolute abysmal performance in that game, especially by its quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who was legit terrible in the game. And yet here they come home for week two against an Oklahoma team led by their head coach, Brett Venables, once again, looking like a defensive juggernaut. They shut out UTEP in their opener last weekend, 51 to nothing. And I was actually hoping to see a number that was even smaller than this, but actually

4:09they couldn't make a number big enough to get people off of Oklahoma. This is the single biggest public side of the college football weekend. The public loves Oklahoma, laying less than a touchdown at five and a half. I have no idea how Michigan can cover this game, but they are the absolute play at plus five and a half. There is short money on Michigan. You know, the college football season is very similar to the NFL season in which week one can really be misleading, especially in college where they don't do anything in the preseason against anybody else. So look for Michigan in the big house early tomorrow to bounce back. And all we need is another hideous looking 13 to 12 game to get the win, regardless of who wins the game. Michigan plus the five and a half is the first play of the weekend.

5:09Also in that 12 o'clock noon Eastern window tomorrow is USF at Army. USF struggled to score, struggled to do anything well. They won their opener 19 to nine against Florida International last week while Army absolutely blew out Bryant College 59 to three. Army is just one of those teams that's very difficult to prepare for. And that's why the public typically likes to bet army, especially when they're giving a short number to a team that doesn't look anywhere near as good as it was. At times last year, I'll take USF plus the three and a half at Army tomorrow. And then a team that I almost gave out last week and it would have won is Duke. Duke last week opened up with a 17 to three win against Tulane. They were laying a pretty big number and the public was on Tulane, but there was short money that was split.

6:09So I didn't give Duke out this week. However, Duke is catching five and a half at Illinois. A team that gave up yards and points to UAB in a win last week. The public likes the Align Eye at home. I'll take Duke plus the five and a half. So those are the three college plays this weekend. I'll tell you, I'd lean Rutgers big time tonight plus the three and a half at BC after right got beat by UMass last week is a 29 and a half point favorite. But that number's gone up a little bit. There's some sharp money on BC. So I stayed off it, but that's also just to keep an eye on it's also the Red Band and a game too. It's the Red Band and a game as well. You can't go against BC in the Red Band and a game. I guess I'm off that one. I might be on it personally, but it's not an official smell test. Pick just three college plays Michigan plus five and a half, USF plus three and a half and Duke plus five and a half.

7:10Let's go to Sunday, the first NFL Sunday of the year. And the one o'clock window features a game that is by far and away the most one sided of the games this weekend with respect to public action. And that is the public. They love themselves some Chicago bears. And they are not fond of the Carolina Panthers, even though the Panthers won the division last year, but they were eight and nine. The Panthers are getting three and a half. There's some threes. There's some three and a halfs out there. I'm going to take each week the best number that's out there. Now, if it's one shop that has a good number and everybody else's uniform across the board at a worse number, I'll take the worst number. But there are plenty of three and a halfs out there. There are plenty of threes. I'll take the Panthers plus the three and a half as the biggest anti public play of week one against the bears. And then I'm going to give you out a total in the one o'clock window.

8:13And it's the opposite of the way I usually think. I love unders in the NFL because most fans prefer to play overs in the NFL. But this is an under that the public really likes. It's the biggest total play so far. Jets, Titans, the public loves under 38 and a half. I'll go over 38 and a half and say somehow they end up putting on an offensive display between two teams that last year looked like they could not score. Those are the two plays in the one o'clock window, just one play in the late afternoon window. Washington plus five and a half at Philadelphia. The bears are the biggest public play on the board. The second biggest public public play on the board are the Eagles. Take Washington plus the five and a half. I have no idea how they'll do it. I mean, I'm going to share with you how they'll do it coming up.

9:15But I just this, it doesn't matter that it's the home team. And those of you that know this over the years, I am 63 and a half percent on games involving Washington, whether I'm going against them or with them. I've had a good feel for my hometown team as a smell test play or a smell test go against. I'm playing them this week plus the five and a half on general contrarian principle. Take Washington plus the five and a half. And then Sunday night, the giants are a huge public, anti public side. I'll take the giants against, you know, everybody's darling this time of year. Oh, the cowboys are going to be great. This is the year. The giants are getting three. It's two and a half in some spots, but I see some threes out there. I'll take the giants plus the three at home on Sunday night against the cowboys. Wait a minute. Hold on for one second. There's one play that I did not give you for the one o'clock window.

10:19My fault. Saints plus seven at Detroit. Let me just tell you that I took them off. Max knew I was going to give out the Saints because I've loved them for about three weeks now. But the line, it's somebody told me the line was going to jump here. And it may look, I'm playing these games on Friday. Sometimes the lines change significantly away from me. And sometimes it's for me. But we'll see what happens with this line because there are some injuries with New Orleans. But I'm going to take them plus the seven at Detroit. Detroit's another public darling this weekend. So there it is. Week two of the smell test Michigan plus five and a half tomorrow at home against Oklahoma. USF plus three and a half at Army Duke plus five and a half at Illinois. And then Sunday early the Panthers plus three against the Bears, the Saints plus seven against the lions, the over in the Jets Tennessee game, 38 and a half.

11:23And then Washington plus five and a half in the late window and then Sunday night, the giants plus three. We will send those out on the team nine eighties website and I'll tweet them out shortly before the kicks on both Saturday and Sunday. All right. When we come back, what Washington must do to beat the Eagles tomorrow? I'll give you my first Washington wins if of the season. We'll do that next. I do want to mention that fully mechanical is the place to go to for any HVAC system issues. We had some issues about nine months ago now. We called fully mechanical. We actually called Dan himself. Dan owns fully mechanical. It's not owned by a hedge firm. It's not owned by a private equity firm. It's not a franchise. Dan handles everything and he comes out to see you himself.

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