Matchups: Offense vs Saints

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1:00Learn more at Kia.com or visit your Southern California Kia dealer. Hi folks, welcome to another episode of Film Study. This is Ken McKee. So I'm going to go back for the second match-up show this week, this one on the offense. Joining me as always is my friend, Frazier Tupar. Frazier, how you doing? Doing good, Ken. A lot of you back on for the offensive show, had a really good defensive show. Talking about how the Ravens DBs can handle the Saints Why receivers, specifically seeing if Elave will get traveled with by Nate Wiggins or see a combination with Wiggins and Humphrey in the slot. And then also if the Ravens can really attack Shugs, that's tendency to throw the ball, Willy Noley and take risks unnecessarily. And maybe we can get it picked as we... That'd be nice. And certainly a lot of that's going to be a function of what Minter does. The layered coverage is with very well, we're versus Daniel Jones. I frustrated him dramatically. He didn't have a good opportunity set either.

2:01So they were getting home with four primarily. They really were effective even with more than four, but they were effective with four as well in pressuring him and making him a big, big, some bad decisions, which was nice. And I hope Daniel Jones is a more mature quarterback, obviously, than Tyler Schuck. And Schuck has, I think, a good probability of making some mistakes. I think we're about the Saints' offensive line, Homegrown, extremely high draft capital expenditures. They got the one guy, Mike Edwards, right, David Edwards, the ex Buffalo Guard is now their playing left guard for them. But it's been kind of a frustrating and a little bit underperforming defense offensive line the last few years. I think it even saw a chance against it. Let's move on to the offensive side of the ball. I guess I'll start it off this week and talk about Declan DeWayle versus Brandon Staley. Now, Brandon Staley, of course, the chargers head coach a few years ago. He was one of the most aggressive head coaches of all time. Dan Campbell was in the same bracket with him. But but Staley went for it. Fourth and three is own and early in the game kind of thing. He was writing modern mathematics to do that, which I do appreciate.

3:16And I think, I think, you know, it has a lot of options here that seem to work in the first week. One of them not to be afraid, of course, of a fourth down gambles. And that should be something stale. Given his background is fairly ready to, you know, be ready for great by the way, I thought this one of the greatest sides here is is that mentors. Fourth and three as the first data point in how aggressive is this coach. Very nice to see. Very nice to see. It was a very small plus. We've, we've, win probability decision. And that's the kind of thing that as a first data point is terrific for a new coach. We don't, you know, we haven't seen the whole picture yet. It's going to play out and we're going to be able to connect the dots. But this for a first, first, you know, read is very good. I think, you know, the moment I kind of was questioning it. I mean, at the time I didn't want to go up two scores, but hindsight's 2020 because we did bone out, but to the analytic side of it, it did make sense because the defense was humming at that point. And then you were to back them up. So I get it.

4:23I don't think it's just about the defense. I think it was about the total points on the line there. And it's actually a more significant. More significantly important when you consider the total range of outcomes, meaning if they had failed and if they've made it, the range was only about 10% in terms of win probability. It's not an insubstantial amount in total on the game, but their advantage on that wager was four tenths of a percent. So really was about a four percent gain in terms of four percent advantage on the win probability they were putting in play effectively. So that's big. And Brandon Staley that not pretty silly. So if you're a slight shame, staking, then failed to go forward on fourth and one late in the first half in his own end, but you know, they're down to 15 points at the time. You got to go for that. And that was I thought a very significant play in the game as it turned out, they end up hunting the ball to the Ravens or even driving on the field and kick a long field goal and they go into the half up 18, I guess, right 31 to 13.

5:24Yeah, certainly never look back at that point, but you know, I thought that was an exceptionally bad play and it's exceptionally big difference between the two in terms of apparent aggressiveness. I would have really hated it if mentor had done that. They put it that way. That was our first data point on mentor. That would not have been good. Yeah, what a mistake. That's a very, very much. In terms of other things that we can see we saw a lot of things from Decladoil as first we could get the Colts. I love the offset fullback lineup spot for safe flowers. I hope that they will continue that when he's back, but it looked like in the second half they had La Jante Western doing the same things that maybe, hey, we're going to use our playbook still. Yeah, definitely. Yeah, definitely agree there. Where do you see Brandon Staley really given Decladoil fits because I think Decladoil was able to handle a lot of what Lou and a room out through Adam.

6:32Brandon Staley has his own style. I think he's also a little more aggressive too, but not to aggressiveness is the Vikings coordinator. Laura is both right. If I had to say something, he's got a better set of edge rushers to work with. Jason and Cam Jordan and Granderson. So they have a better set of guys to get after the quarterback. The Ravens are going to have to try and neutralize that with a lot of their typical game playing and deception. Ravens. If deception is the fuel for the Ravens offense, they are back in a great position this year. I just I love that about it. And it looks like the zone scheme that they have is exceptionally complimentary to play action boots. So Jackson Row left and I mean, the edge defender was just nowhere in the ballpark, which is, which is a nice thing to be able to let Lamar really set his feet and throw that ball through that nice dark to say flowers.

7:41They're 49 yards on the first play of the game. Even the rollout left when a soft scarred right when they left when he pulled that string. That that was, I mean, that was the casual throw in the park and he made it look like on that one. That one I felt like was better than the first one of the game, because it was just so casual, but I'm. Yeah, great play, certainly. One thing I'm hoping that they do more of with the boot. They got some advantages of playing under center. One of them is that you don't have Gwyn's lousy shotgun snaps, looking like a slow pitch softball. Going back to the catcher there. Instead, he takes the snaps under center that takes that out of the game. And so you get a little bit better advantage, I think, from that as well. I hope he gets that straightened out, by the way. That is something they can work with him on that for a week or two weeks. And he might be able to correct that in that period of time. Like saying that, oh, I think somebody's just, you know, sit rusty, say, from a holding penalty or whatnot.

8:43That's not true. He's probably beat is the problem. Or he felt like he was going to be beat. And he probably was right about that. And then he gets a hold. So tough game for him in a lot of ways. But I'm still hopeful Gwyn can come back. Because honestly, that's all we've got is hope at that position right now. They don't have a center who's ready to go yet. Yeah, I think the one thing I hope for is if we do try and correct that snap speed, that he does an over-convert state. And we start seeing some nightmares of 2020. Yeah, there you go. Yeah, some snaps in their head or like the Buffalo game there. Yeah. Exactly. All right. All right. What else is there? I had one other point to make about the about the Doyle offense that I think I'm really happy about. Because the whole offseason, the question has been, is this often going to be the requisite amount of grindy to go with the amount of explosiveness it is? And so of course, you want to have both. And this was a game where the Ravens actually did have both.

9:46They were the right amount of grindy. They made 23 out of 23 out of 29 of their first downs into a subsequent first down. They only had six misses over the course of the game. And that doesn't include a kneel where they didn't make it on third down at the end of the game. Those are excluded. So it was a really good 79% rate, which would lead the league in a typical year in series success rate. And it's on par with the 19, at the 2019 Ravens. So that's a great place to start. But then in terms of explosiveness, they were as explosive as this team's ever been. I mean, in terms of yards per play or big plays, or whatever you want to, you say it. And they did so without having a single negative play on a run or pass the whole game. They're too sacks. They didn't end up being negative, of course we know. But they didn't have any negative run or pass play. So they denied the defense a lot of variance. And then they gave it back to them with penalties, of course.

10:49That was the back breaker of the day. I think that was really the part that really pissed us all off is just the constant penalties when it was Stanley, whether it was the whole line, it felt like was getting called. Andrews had a couple on here and there. I think really the focus for this game and moving into my next matchup is the Ravens wide receivers versus the Saints DBs. Obviously we're not going to be with Zay flowers. I think the one thing that I wish Lamar would have done in the Coles game is really just give Jacobi Lane a chance, at least early in the game, like a jump ball, just see what he could do. Just get him into the game. I wish he would have did that before he got hurt. So we're not going to be with Lane or flowers really looking for a westerner step up in that slot role. Really want Bateman first in line in that slot role because his absence last week was

11:49loud to me personally because I really expected him to have a breakout game kind of like how flowers did. I think Chris Moore showed me some kind of burst in speed yet last this past Sunday. I don't know if that was just first game jitters getting out and stuff like that. I just I don't know, but Chris Moore looks like he's found a new gear. I don't know how you feel about that, but it just… If we're able to continue to make this facing that Doyle has shown, I think Lamar can find the guys who's it looks like he's been able to stay on time if the offensive line can stay in phase and continue to keep Lamar upright. I think he's able to play on time, keep his footwork intact and then continue to be deadly for the pocket like he has been this year so far. So I think the Saints were exposed last week.

12:53Obviously, Saint Brown is someone who is very strong at the catchpoint and stop it around. So he's going to get his… We don't have a really a replica for that. Really expect Bateman to have the game. If he doesn't have the game, I don't know where we go from there because I think if Bateman doesn't get his touches this week, I'm not too sure about how Moore Owes going to be moving forward forever. Right. You would certainly expect him to get targets in a game like this with no flowers. I hope they try and go back to him and try and replicate what was working in 2024 because he's got Brie Wiggle before you get to the top of the stem. You can throw a lot of defensive backs off and that's why he's such a good separator at that point. The Ravens have certainly not made full use of that during his whole career. But the other thing he has is Great Wiggle on the secondary play as well to get free. He can make that defensive back look the wrong way.

13:54Then he waits for him to peek back into the backfield and all of a sudden he's gone in another direction. We saw that in one of the games I want to say it's the Pittsburgh in the playoff game. He had a big play like that in 24. But yeah, there's no reason for Rashad Bateman to be able to up. The Saints have a pretty good set of outside corners. But they'll be playing a safety in a slot. They'll be playing Big Nickel. So if Bateman were in the slot there, I think he would potentially pose very significant issues for that safety, whether that's Sanker or Reed. It won't be Blackman. I think Blackman plays in the back end. It could be Reed or Sanker either one of those could be up front playing the slot. Yeah. I'm really expecting, um, Western has a lot of speed. Obviously the only time you really get to see it is on punt. So he can really get an opportunity, like you said, to get his hands on the offense. I think it was in the two minute drill.

14:57He ended up getting a pass like medium left and then he like fell backwards anticipating some kind of hit. I think once he starts getting into the field of the game, he'll start being able to turn up field faster, being able to feel the defender, and then we'll start seeing more plays from Western while Zay flowers is out. And I think, um, do you think Zay's speed and the aggressiveness he came with is sustainable for the rest of the year? I, I, I, I, possibly, I thought the spacing was so good and there were so many on time throws in stride throws, not on time in stride throws. I'm saying with the intensity he's running with. I mean, it's hard for me to say if you're saying like his hamstrings can't hold up to it because I mean, I was yet, I guess not because I mean, it's a problem this year so far. Yeah. So if you want to, if you want to say he's, you know, his, his body can't hold up to that

15:59kind of, I mean, I just normal running shouldn't be a problem for a wide receiver. It's kind of part of the job description. You, you got to be able to do that. But it's wonderful. I mean, it's wonderful after the catch. I want to say the Ravens team had 10.1 Yacht per reception in this game. Yacht perception. I mean, yards per reception of 10, 10.0 would be okay, but 10.0, it's 10.0 and Yacht per reception is remarkable. So. All right. Let's take a break and we'll be right back. Football is finally back in Christ picks is bringing out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. And now price picks is available nationwide. So what are you waiting for? Lock in for kickoff because everyone and everything is on price picks. So what you want in this football season, I'm all in on Lamar Jackson's rushing stats. This summer, he's looked as fast as anyone and the mesh point between Lamar and Derek Henry should return to be the most powerful offensive combination in the league. I picked more on his rush yards projection for the season because I think he'll again

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18:04It's hard not to notice how many electric vehicles are on the 405, 101 and 10 freeways these days. Better technology, convenient charging and longer driving range are making the switch to electric more practical than ever. KIA offers three all-electric models that combine performance, technology and capability. With compatible DC fast chargers, they can charge to 80% in less than 30 minutes, making it easier to get back on the road. One model that really stands out is the 2026 KIA EV9. It's an all-electric SUV with three rows of seating over 300 miles of all-electric driving range and the capability and technology you'd expect from a modern SUV. Whether it's your daily commute to Burbank or a weekend drive to Ohio, the EV9 is built to fit the way you live. If you're ready to make the move to electric, KIA has an EV designed to fit your needs. Learn more at KIA.com or visit your Southern California KIA dealer.

19:04All right, we're back. I'm up next, I think we'll talk about leveraging the tackling deficiencies that the Saints have. The Saints have pretty decent inside linebackers. The level two guys are both pretty good. That's Ellis and Werner. That's that Werner that's Werner. There's solid tacklers. They're big inside linebackers and both of them are pretty good. They have to be because their guys at the line of scrimmage are across the board, not very good tacklers. Their edges are not bad, but their interior guys have a real problem. This could be a game where you're effective in either gap or zone and maybe you've run even a little more gap in a game like this or maybe you've run zone and you try because that gives you an opportunity to get Jackson rolling away from the side of the play and perhaps get inside linebacker out of position. You've got multiple ways that this can work, but you definitely want to get Henry first contact opportunities in level two.

20:05I think there's a pretty high chance of that happening in a game like this with what the Ravens have shown and with frankly what the Saints have to offer on the interior. I think they'll continue to provide that deception when they play in their center. I want to see Henry start breaking some tackles. Henry broke three tackles on 24 carries this last week, which is still way below par for where he was saying 2024. That's 0.125, Miss tackles forest per carry. He was at 0.24 for the entire season in 2024. He really needs to be a guy who breaking tackles is a portion of the yards he gets. He increases his yards by 5% to 10% with a couple extra broken tackles. That would be obviously very nice. The way that starts to happen is when you have that first contact, the end level two. Yep, and I think we could see a lot of more screens for Henry this week.

21:07I think it was really six of that. That screen was very beautiful to see last week. I'm interested to watch how John Simpson ends up on the ground a lot. I'm hoping he continues to work on that. That was a problem when he was here last year. That caused us on one of the big plays when they got the chopping block. I'll tell you what I think happened on that. If you don't mind me just take it this. I think Simpson's just played with the jets for two years. The Ravens haven't thrown a chop block in 10 years I would estimate. It might be 15. I think they've ruled them out. One of the reasons you rule them out is because you don't want the chop block risk. You don't want that penalty. It's just too severe and too drive-stalling for any kind of marginal gain in your effectiveness blocking a single player. By the way, really puts the backside. It didn't even make a difference in the player. Exactly.

22:08It also does the proper job of relativizing the cost of a penalty versus the value of a block. It's not a good gamble. I'm playing for a penny and I'm going to lose $100. The way you're going to look at the two relative size of that. Simpson spent these two years of the jets. The jets probably allow it. Jets are a crappy organization. They don't know what they're doing in a lot of ways. They said, yeah, go ahead and if you think it's the outdoor play, go ahead and chop block the guy. He attempted a cut block. He thought, this is a good time for you to add the cut block. I see this defensive lineman doing something in particular. I think I could take advantage of this. But Stanley's not in the no one that. Then Stanley engages him high and that ends up being the chop block because they're engaged high and low at the same time. I think Simpson probably did something he wasn't supposed to do. The Ravens probably still have a moratorium on cut blocks internally. I wish one of the reporters would be asking this week of midter or doil to ask, is that

23:08going to happen again? Kind of thing. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. I think. Ledford did show that he does have a command of the offensive line because they did come out a little flat, but as the game went on, the run game really did start popping. Henry got those big runs and really didn't see much of the plat pass game in the third and the second half anyway, but really cleaned up after those halftime adjustments. Yeah, great job. So the Ravens run game versus the Saints run defense. Are you done with that or was there something else you have some other point? Oh, no. And then also wanted to point out that the wide receivers have been very crucial in the run game. Bateman had a serious pancake block on Henry's big time run. Chris Moore was that Chris Moore? Chris Moore down the left side line on on Cam Bina. Yep. Blocking him down the field as well, 10, 15 yards.

24:09Also Lane blocking four flowers on that big play. Just all around the receivers buying in, especially Bateman buying in when he basically ran cardio all week, all all game and still buying in and being able to be a big part of the offense is crucial. So if this run game can push forward and continue to pave the way for the offense in the play action fake, I don't think we can roll out right like at all because that's what the one we had the fumble on. I don't know what formation or what tendency Doyle has to go against for us to start rolling out right. I think the league is going to be keen on the right roll out the boots that are right. So I think until they can stop the roll out left, we're going to continue to go that way. Because when we had record, we usually just had him seal and regardless if we went out

25:11right. So I think if they do want to do that, that's probably that adjustment. And they don't need it. It doesn't take a huge block. It's almost like just like a block you would make on a screen pass. It's enough to redirect the guy for a moment. So he's not running right downhill on Lamar Jackson. And Lamar when he boots left, he's creating effectively a run pass option for himself. He can throw them all. He can run them all. It's yet you had a play where you actually had it designed to either go into Henry or not because his balls turn his back is turned to the field. He doesn't have an option point in terms of what he's doing on the play and the initial play action. It's either there or it's not. But he does certainly have an option in terms of what he does on the left side. And he proved very adept at being able to position his body to make those throws even after rolling left, which if you know, a lot of right hand quarterbacks, they just can't do that. Yep. And I think last thing with the run game, the like you mentioned earlier, really good to see that the option is still a crucial part of this offense.

26:12Specifically, that Doyle has put his touch on the option play, especially with that tackle over, touchdown run that Lamar had on the option play. That was a wrinkle that really had me excited because A, it took exactly what we're institutionally known for and then brought in another aspect from the offense of Todd Munkin in terms of the tackle over and then played against that in terms of their rules of Henry going downhill and then the escort left with us. So really great play and looking to see what other wrinkles that Doyle brings to the option offense. So many years ago, now we're talking about 2008, 2009 in that area, it lasted into 2010. Hello, Dinaughta used to be brought in on the offensive line in circumstances like that down at the one yard line. And they ran that a number of times. Willis Bakey would always run this little stretch to the right. Every team knew it was coming and they couldn't do a damn thing about it.

27:14They just had success as their success with it. Willis had really good vision on the field. They put in a six line and then they would put in NADA as a seventh line. So it was really a massive unit. They would be putting on display to the opponent and there was no stopping it. And I love the fact that they put the six line, they put the fifth offensive line and they played on balance. They didn't play with a six line on that right side. And then they run counter to that. That obviously is, you're not going to line up to have to stop that with the extra guy on the right side of the center from the offense's perspective. And so it's usually going to be a good chance. And did a good job. Who had the good block on that side? There's somebody else had a decent block on one of the pursuing players who might have been able to catch the mark. Smith. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So I'm just a little bit more crucial to the game plan yesterday. I just small clean up things that go unseen, but he boils very smart from bringing them

28:17to the offense so we can establish what he needs and put it on film for a quavis and hymnur to replicate. All right. Frazier. Always a lot of fun doing the show with your toe folks where they can talk with you online. You guys, reach me at Twitter slash XF underscore rate. That's F underscore R a V a. All right. Thanks, Anthony. Thanks so much. If you want to do one nice thing to promote the show, tell one more new person about it. Get them watching. Get them listening. I really appreciate it. If you want to otherwise just like and subscribe on the YouTube channel, that'll help direct traffic here. And if you want to even go a little further, you can even write us a five star 50 word review on your favorite podcast platform. For Frazier to part, this is Ken McEusex and we'll be back next week on matchups. Dave Roberts here. There you are surrounded by fans, sharing wings, sharing drinks, high fiving random strangers. Everybody remembers the game. Nobody remembers the guy coughing behind you until a few days later at 2 a.m. you wake up

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