May 1st, 2026: IRAN IN “DEATH SPIRAL”: Economy Crumbling Fast & A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire?

It's Friday, the 1st of May. Well, known in many parts of the world is May Day, celebrated

in some places as International Workers' Day, of course, and in other countries it's

the traditional spring festival, an original pagan holiday. How about that? So get out

there and dance around the maypole, or however you celebrate. Welcome to the President's

Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's

get briefed.

First up, new signs that Iran's economy is entering what some analysts are calling a

quote, death spiral, with soaring inflation, mass unemployment, and growing pressure on

the regime. Later in the show, Trump and Putin float a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine.

Even as Kiev strikes deep into Russian territory. Plus, as war intensifies in Mali,

analysts warn Shihadist groups could be on the verge of carving out an African caliphate.

And in today's back of the brief, the Pentagon officially estimates the cost of the Iran

conflict to date, and trust me, it's a lot of fat stacks, about $25 billion worth.

But first, today's PDB spotlight.

Iran's economy is beginning with some analysts are calling a quote, death spiral, and the

pressure is coming from all sides. According to new reporting from Wall Street Journal,

the combination of war, a U.S. naval blockade, and internal dysfunction is pushing Iran into

one of the most severe economic crises it's faced in decades. More than one million

people are now out of work directly, with another million impacted indirectly. At the

same time, inflation has surged to roughly 67 percent. And the country's currency has

collapsed to around 1.8 million reels to the dollar. By way of comparison, the exchange

rate at the end of 2024 was approximately 820,000 reels to the dollar. By the end of 2025,

it was approximately 1.4 million reels to the dollar. And now a few months later, it's

1.8 million to purchase one dollar.

But those numbers are only telling part of the story. On the ground, daily life is becoming

increasingly difficult. Food prices are soaring, basic goods are becoming harder to find,

and entire sectors of the economy are grinding to a halt. Businesses from manufacturers to

small retailers are shutting down, as supply chains break and raw materials disappear.

The prolonged internet shutdown, a regime tactic meant to suppress internal dissent,

has only made things worse, cutting off millions from online work and commerce. And in some

cases, a situation is becoming almost, well, surreal. Reports out of Tehran suggest that

even staple items are slipping out of reach for ordinary citizens. Meat prices have climbed

beyond what many families can afford, while some households are being forced to cut

back to one meal a day. Medicine shortages are also becoming a growing concern, with

some patients unable to access essential treatments as prices spike.

What's notable here is not just the scale of the crisis, but the tone. Even Iranian

state media, which rarely breaks from the official line, has begun sounding the alarm. In

a recent broadcast, a state television anchor openly questioned government leadership, asking

quote, what is going on in this country? That kind of direct criticism is unusual, and

suggests that the strain is becoming impossible to ignore.

At the center of all this is a high-stakes standoff. The US continues to bet that sustained

economic pressure, especially through the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports, will force Tehran

to make concessions. Iran, meanwhile, is betting the opposite that Washington will eventually

back off to stabilize global markets and bring down energy prices, particularly if the

state of Hormuz remains disrupted. And that's the key leverage point, of course. Before

the war, much of Iran's economy depended on oil exports moving through the strait, now

with the waterway effectively closed, and US naval forces enforcing a blockade, that

revenue stream has been choked off. There is little evidence that Iran has been able

to bypass those restrictions in any meaningful way.

In response, the Iranian government is trying to contain the fallout. Officials have raised

wages, expanded subsidies, and rolled out cash assistance programs. There are even reports

that plans to allow some citizens to purchase essential goods on credit. But, well, these

are temporary fixes. And many economists say they're not nearly enough to offset the

scale of the disruption. And that brings us to the bigger picture. None of this means

that Iran's economy is going to collapse overnight. This is still an authoritarian system

with a lot of tools to manage unrest and to enforce stability as they've shown in the

past with their ability to repress protests, with extreme violence, if necessary, of course.

And historically, Iran has shown a high tolerance for economic pain. But the trajectory is clear.

As government revenues dry up and living conditions deteriorate, the risk for the regime isn't

just economic, it's political. Iran has already seen waves of unrest tied to inflation and

economic hardship in recent years. And if conditions continue to worsen, the regime

could find itself facing renewed internal pressure at the same time that it's locked

in an external conflict. So the question that everybody is asking is, well, who blinks

first? And in the meantime, well, in the meantime, it's the Iranian people who are paying

the price. My coming up next, Trump and Putin float a Ukraine ceasefire as Kiev strikes

deep inside Russia. And in Mali, jihadist territorial gains raise fears of an emerging African

caliphate. I'll be right back.

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Welcome back to the PDB. Well, we now know what came out of the 90-minute call between President

Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A ceasefire proposal in Ukraine. But it's not exactly

a breakthrough. If you just listen to the headlines, perhaps it does sound like a major leap in

progress as if diplomacy is finally moving in the right direction. But once you start looking at

the details, it becomes clear this isn't a real pathway to peace. It's a tightly framed pause

with a very specific purpose. During Wednesday's call, which was the 12th between the two leaders

since Trump returned to office, the focus turned to a temporary ceasefire, timed around Russia's

victory-day celebrations on the 9th of May. Of course, those celebrations commemorate the Soviet

victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. And according to Kremlin advisor Yuriy Ushakov,

Putin signaled that he'd be prepared to halt combat for the duration of the holiday. Trump

backed it publicly, saying, quote, I suggested a little bit of a ceasefire. There's so many people

being killed, end quote. Ushakov never explicitly said who actually initiated the idea,

only that Putin expressed, quote, readiness, and that Trump supported it. And this possible pause,

again, is tied to one of those symbolic holidays in Russia. Victory day. As mentioned in yesterday's

PDB, for the first time in nearly two decades, Moscow is scaling back its victory-day parade.

It's a departure from a decades-long tradition meant to project military might and global reach.

There'll be fewer tanks on display this year, less military hardware rolling down the parade route,

maybe not even those giant inflatable balloons in the shape of Lenin and Stalin. The kids are

going to be very disappointed. Now, at the same time as Trump and Putin talk about a ceasefire,

Ukraine is continuing to strike the Kremlin's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian drones have hit

targets hundreds of miles from the front lines. Just hours after the Trump Putin call,

there was a strike on an energy facility located in Perm that's roughly 1500 kilometers from the

front lines, shaking the city's oil transit hub for receiving storing and pumping crude through

Russia's main pipeline network. Local officials there reported explosions and fires, while the security

service of Ukraine claimed immediate responsibility and made the message explicit, saying, quote,

the enemy must understand a simple fact. It no longer has a safe rear. In a separate strike from

Kiev, a refinery in the Black Sea port of Tuopset was hit. So, now while Trump and Putin are talking

about a pause, obviously Ukraine is doing the opposite. It's still expanding the battlefield.

But it's worth noting that Ukrainian President Zelensky isn't completely dismissing the ceasefire

idea. However, brief it may last, he's instructed his team to reach out to Washington and get clarity

before weighing in. After all, the only two parties that really matter when it comes to

orchestrating a ceasefire would be Ukraine and Russia. It's not dissimilar from the situation

in the Middle East where a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is being touted as progress,

despite the fact that Hezbollah is not a party to it. Hezbollah and Israel are the only two parties

that matter in terms of a ceasefire there. As an aside, ceasefires in the Ukraine conflict have

proven to be tenuous and short-lived. A ceasefire tied to Orthodox Easter, earlier this month,

collapsed almost immediately, with both sides accusing each other of repeated violations.

The same thing, of course, happened with the Orthodox Easter ceasefire the previous year.

Over the next few days we'll find out whether this turns into something real. Now, the one thing is,

Moscow may be sufficiently keen to ensure a successful and quiet victory day that they actually

do agree to a temporary pause. Putin would rather not have his parade interrupted by Ukrainian drones.

Okay, I want to turn now to the rapidly deteriorating security crisis in Mali,

where al-Qaeda-linked militants are bearing down on the capital of Bamako. And for the first time,

the idea of a caliphate in West Africa is looking dangerously real. Earlier this week,

a coordinated offensive by fighters tied to JNM, JNIM, a major jihadist alliance in the Sahel,

erupted into one of the fiercest waves of attacks that Mali has seen in more than a decade,

pushing toward Bamako while sweeping through key positions across the North and the East.

And in the days since, well, the jihadist campaign hasn't slowed down, it's accelerated.

What we're learning now in new reporting from the Wall Street Journal is that JNM

routed Russian-backed forces from strategic towns, seizing armored vehicles and even a

attack helicopter as they pushed across the Sahara. This isn't just happening in remote territory

inside Bamako, the violence has already reached key areas. Militants attacked the airport,

and regarding those early reports of the Defense Minister's home being attacked and is

whereabouts unknown, well, we now know his fate. Mali's Defense Minister, the regime's second

and command, was killed in a bombing at his residence. In a video released through its propaganda

channels, the group announced a blockade on all routes into Bamako, attempting to cut off goods

and restrict movement and economically suffocate the city. It's a tactic that they've used before

in places like Timbuktu, but never at this scale. In past sieges, JNM hasn't always sealed cities

completely. They have allowed civilians to leave, sometimes permanently, while tightly controlling

what comes in. In some cases, limited food, medical supplies, and even humanitarian groups

have been allowed through. Allowing some limited access and aid into controlled areas allows JNM

to avoid turning the population entirely against them, while still applying enough economic pressure

to weaken the city over time. At the same time, they're shaping the narrative. In their messaging,

JNM framed this blockade as retaliation, claiming residents in Bamako helped government forces

capture and kill some of their fighters during the initial assault. For now, it's understood that

there's no widespread panic in the capital, despite the threats of a militant blockade. However,

the U.S. Embassy has already instructed American citizens to shelter in place, citing reports of

terrorist movements within Bamako. And that brings us to the government response. Molly's military

leadership is projecting control. The Malian President says a, quote, violent stopping blow

has been dealt, and insists the situation is under control, calling for national unity.

And that's a narrative that doesn't appear to match the ground truth.

His appearance came after days of public absence, as rumors about his whereabouts began to circulate

early in the offensive, and whether he'd suffered the same fate as the defense minister.

Reportedly, Russian-backed forces, which were brought in after Molly turned away from western

support back in 2022, are now reportedly pulling back. The Kremlin-controlled Africa Corps,

which absorbed fighters from the Vodna Group, that's the Russian private army, led by

Evgeny Pregozion, before his death, of course, by Putin. Death by Putin, that's how it was ruled,

has withdrawn from key strongholds in the mineral-rich north. And almost immediately,

well, those positions were lost. The rebels moved in, capturing Russian armored vehicles

in additional equipment left behind. At the same time, Father East and Islamic State Affiliate,

a rival to Al-Qaeda, has seized a border village near Niger from Russian forces.

So it's not just one front collapsing, it appears to be multiple pressure points, breaking all at once.

Russia was supposed to stabilize Molly again after Molly decided to turn away from western support.

That was the Kremlin's pitch, security in exchange for access, influence, and resources.

Instead, what you're saying now is that model failing in real-time. The executive director of the

century, a US-based investigative organization, said, quote, the regime is highly vulnerable,

and the Russians have shown they can't protect it. So the risk is not just bombico falling,

but rather that the hunter risks holding the capital and name only while losing control of the

country around it. Western officials warn that if the scenario plays out, Molly could become the

first country to fall under the control of an Al-Qaeda-aligned movement, effectively carving out a

functioning caliphate in West Africa. It would become the first nation governed by an Al-Qaeda-aligned

group, the same network, of course, responsible for the attacks that drew the US into a 20-year war

after September 11. All right, up next in the back of the brief, the cost of the Iran conflict

comes into focus, as the Pentagon says operations have already topped $25 billion and counting.

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In today's back of the brief, and we're getting our first real look at what the war in Iran is

costing. According to testimony on Capitol Hill, the U.S. military operations against Iran have

already run up a price tag of roughly $25 billion, just two months into the conflict.

That figure came from Jay Hurst, the Pentagon's acting comptroller, doing a House Armed Services

Committee hearing on Wednesday, where he was joined by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General

Dan Cain, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. It marked the first public testimony by Pentagon leaders

since the war began. As well as the first time, officials have publicly disclosed an official

estimate of the cost so far. And most of that money is being spent the way you expect.

On munitions used in air strikes, along with the cost of operating aircraft and naval assets,

and replacing equipment that's been destroyed. But even that number comes with the caveat.

Pentagon officials may clear the total will likely continue to rise as operations move forward,

and notably that the $25 billion figure is only a snapshot. It's just a snapshot,

with officials still working to assess the full cost of the operation.

In fact, the Pentagon has yet to submit a formal war funding request to Congress, citing their

ongoing review of the Pentagon's spending. That's despite the fact that back in March,

officials floated a much larger figure, around $200 billion, which never made its lawmakers and

was met with immediate skepticism. At the hearing, Defense Secretary Pete Hankseth

pushed back hard on criticism of the war, arguing that the biggest threat facing the U.S.

right now isn't Iran. It's what he called, quote, reckless, feckless, and defeatist rhetoric

from members of Congress. He also warned that describing the war as a quagmire,

Hans Propaganda, to America's enemies, and undermines U.S. troops.

At the same time, Pentagon leaders defended the operation itself, saying the goal remains clear,

ensuring that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. Hankseth went further telling lawmakers

that Iran's nuclear capabilities have been, quote, obliterated.

That claim, however, drew pushback from lawmakers on the committee, who questioned what the weeks

of strikes have actually achieved, and whether the operation is delivering lasting results.

So for now, we have a headline number, 25 billion, but we don't yet have a full accounting

of the price tag, a clear timeline for how long this will continue, or a detailed explanation

of what the end state looks like. And when those pieces are still missing,

it becomes difficult to fully assess what that final price tag may look like.

And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday, the very first day of May.

If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at bdb at thefirsttv.com.

And just because it's Friday and, well, because you deserve it, we've got another episode of our

possibly highly acclaimed weekend show, the Situation Report, ready to launch this evening at 10 PM

on the first TV. You can also find it and past episodes on our YouTube channel, which, as you

probably suspect, can be found on YouTube, just search up at President's Daily Brief,

and, of course, podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today

with the bdb after an embulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.