Middle East analyst on psychological impact of Iran strikes

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Next we're gonna bring on Javier Brotchicker.

Javier is the Middle East analyst for the free press.

Javier, thank you so much for being here.

Hi, we're finally good to be here.

You are obviously in Israel.

Tell us what is the mood on the ground.

You know, it's a little exhausting.

People are remembering the June war.

There's a lot of fear, especially in the big cities

that are targeted by the ballistic missiles.

The missiles that take 10 minutes to cross

from Iran to Israel and are pretty much impossible to stop.

There's been some limited successes

and the technology is always improving,

but at the moment, Israel can shoot down drones.

Israel can shoot down cruise missiles.

It's a much more difficult story with the ballistic missiles.

And they brought down a couple of apartment buildings

last time with people in them.

And so there's this very real fear

the local governments and the Army's

home front command of mobilized medics

and the emergency crews and things like that

in preparation for any eventuality.

But I think that mostly Israelis

are in that state of grim determination.

You know, this is a regime that has told us for 47 years

that we are a cancerous tumor and a little Satan, excuse me.

You get to be the great Satan.

It's a point of pride to be anywhere

in the club that you're invited to.

So that's okay, I'll take the little Satan.

And they have laid the groundwork in various proxies

around us proxies that have done more damage

to their own home countries than to us.

Chesbalan, the Iraqi militias and the Houthis of Yemen

for our destruction, for our literal extermination,

which they talk about endlessly.

And so this has to happen.

And I think one view that my neighbors share,

if I can cause, you know, there's a lot of political

disagreements on just about every issue.

But one thing that I think Israelis all agree on

is that they pulled it off again.

This was an astonishing opening to this campaign.

And it's quite likely, we still don't know

that Hamine was taken out.

And that's, forgive me for talking too long,

but that's really, really important to point this out.

And I think Neal was mentioning something similar

to this at one point.

But the very fact that a meeting of Hamine,

the Supreme Leader, the dictator of Iran

for 35 years, the man who built Chesbalan,

who funded the Houthis, the man who built the nuclear program.

This guy, knowing.

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That that meeting was taking place

when and how it took place within the work hours, right?

The daytime bombing is extraordinary

because Israel has only really mostly engaged

around it at night.

Israeli planes are very good at night.

The operational factors are better at night.

This was a daytime bombing they did not expect

and hasn't happened before.

And all these important leaders and advisors,

advisor on the nuclear program,

head of military intelligence, were all in the room.

And what that means is the Israelis know

when the top most secretive meetings happen,

the most important leadership, the most sensitive leadership,

and they know when the meeting is gonna happen

and where it's gonna happen in real time.

That alone tells the Iranian regime

they are not working together.

Somebody is not rowing in the same direction.

It breaks the cohesion of the regime.

So this, the psychological impact,

never mind the decapitation,

which I'll have to continue for quite a while,

but it's like a logical impact of this kind

of a successful start is it can't be overstated.

Right, and for the listener,

what you're saying is clearly there are

Israeli and US intelligence sources

within the Iranian government high up for this to have worked.

Yeah, and I'd like to imagine a scene out of Tehran,

the Netflix show where it's a Mossad spy running

around Tehran constantly evading Iranian counterintelligent.

You know, I'm fairly sure there's some of that happening

just because everybody talks about how could it,

nobody tells me what the Mossad's doing in Tehran.

So I'm allowed to talk about it freely,

but you should take it with a grain of salt.

But, but this would be something else.

Unless this is an Ellie Cohen infiltrating

the Syrian high command in the early 60s situation,

which is possible, that there's literally a Mossad,

Israeli Mossad spy literally in the high command

of the Iranians receiving the coordinating emails

from come in A's office.

It's possible, I'm not saying it's not possible,

but the more likely scenario, I think,

is that Iranians themselves, Iranian generals,

people very high up in the IRGC are not willing

to keep this regime afloat,

that the dissension at the highest ranks,

they know that their religious justification

for this regime, that they're the great war

of the humble in the weak against the arrogant

and the proud, the great religious war for salvation

of all the oppressed people of the world,

this basically Maoist kind of reframing of Shia Islam

that Homanie did in the 70s,

and that is the religious story of this regime,

they know it's bunk, they know that they're all

a bunch of billionaires, they know none of it's true.

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