Nancy Tengler And Pete Najarian: Breaking Down The Current Stock Market

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1:00Anyway, we're going to do some stocks. Some sloppy week, not much happening, basically flat for the week. We are in an economic boom as we've been discussing. Jobs do not create inflation. The Federal Reserve may have a difficult decision to make. In September, we'll see, I don't think it's really going to be that important to say that shows profits are booming, profits are the mother's milk of stocks and the lifeblood of the economy. And they are booming and we will talk to Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler investments, or latest book as the women's guide to successful investing. And Pete Najarian, co-founder of Market Rebellion and option monster, Pete Najarian, Nancy Tengler. This sounds a little, I'm just saying this, a little coppery, a little thin on the,

2:05maybe somebody's going to fix my microphone. But Pete Najarian, I'm looking here, the VIX index 15. Okay, so what you taught me, it's the first thing I look at now. VIX index, pretty low, seems like pretty optimistic. Yeah, I think it is very interesting, Larry, the fact that we have these markets that are going up and down and it's like a heartbeat, right? I mean, it's boom to the upside, it can be up 600.1 day and down 500 the next and that's kind of the market that we're in. But because of the fact that we are very close, if not at all time highs, those kind of moves are almost expected quite honestly because of the fact of the levels in which we are right now. I mean, if we drop like we did on Friday 270 points, it's only a half of a percent. So it's not that much of an impact. So we're looking at the volatility index, which at a 16 year, looking for about 1% moves, well, we're not even close to an S&P move that's 1%. So it's interesting to see we're down there at 14

3:10and a half, which actually makes a lot of sense right now, Larry, as I'm getting ready each and every day. I look at that volatility, like you just said, I look at that and the new thing for me that I have to watch every day because it is what inflation is is crude oil. And I just look at the WTI every single morning to see, okay, what are we going to expect for today? And here we are at about 91 and a half right now for WTI. Looks high to me. Looks very high to me because they're moving in oil. They're moving oil through the straight for most. I mean, I don't know. Nancy Tangler allegedly, they're moving, and this is from what's his name? Chris writes, the Energy Secretary, but Goldman Sachs had the same thing that more or less two thirds of pre-war oil, so called whatever, 15 million barrels a day is coming through. So I think WTI way too high. Way too high. Yeah. I think it should be 75 for 80, 90.

4:17I completely agree. I do think, however, it's kind of shocking that it hasn't been tired, just because that's as Pete pointed out, that's the kind of market we're in, which is headlines drive this immense amount of volatility. And it isn't the volume of the volatility as much as it is the swift changes. So I think we'll start to see oil come in. Traders are coming back from their long vacations on Long Island and in the Hamptons, and I think we'll start to see liquidity return to the market the next week or so. And then we'll get more normal reactions, because as you've been pointing out the whole show, fundamentals are incredible. You know, the manufacturing PMI at 54 plus. It's driven by the right factors. You look at earnings growth, got earnings up 25% year to date. But stock prices have only gone up 12, which means stocks are actually cheaper than they were at the beginning of the year. And multiples are not out of line with

5:19the kind of earnings growth we're seeing at all. Technology companies, I think the multiples 21 times, the S&P's at about 20 times, but 30% of technology companies raised guidance. So not only do you have strong earnings growth, revenue growth year to date is up 13%. That's kind of amazing. And the guidance is very strong. And we saw two to one amongst S&P companies raising guidance. So I think we'll get back to the economies in great shape. The job market is solid. And here we are in a bull market early years, or a couple of years in, I think it ranks fifth out of the eight bull market since 1966. So we have a lot of room to run. And I think the administration understands this. So hopefully we'll begin to see some progress in oil. And I don't think the Fed's going to raise rates. So I think housing is safe, but more abundant for now. So Ed Yardeni came on the TV show and very bullish on profits. He agrees with me,

6:28profits of the mother's milk of stocks. And he said that we could get to 8400 on the S&P 500 by year end. It's currently 7718, 8400. What do you think? Pretty cool forecast, by the way, on TV. He's got a lot of guts. And he's a guy who is always it seems like very bullish, right? When we look at things, we always like to see things the way that they should be. And I think that this rotation just shows you how important it is to have that kind of a rotation, where it's not just something that's driven by AI. It's not just something that's driven by technology. We're having a very significant rotation from different sectors constantly. It seems like almost on a daily basis. So I think that with that kind of a market, and if things go well at all when it comes to Iran and when we're talking about the Straits and trying to get that oil through there, if that continues to be

7:33something where that's not going to be the biggest issue of the day, we have a market that very much I would agree. It's going to be well over 8,000. 8400 seems like a lot, but you know what, things can happen. And we've gone through this earnings season. It has been absolutely extraordinary, guys. I mean, Nancy, you're so right. I mean, they absolutely have crushed it. And the guidance has been, for the most part, unbelievably strong. So people are so hard on the AI storyline. And yet, we're still seeing a lot of those stocks doing very, very well that are attached to the AI story. We're in a boom. We are in an economic, it's the greatest story never told. We're in a boom. Now, the media doesn't want to tell the story because they're political and they hate Donald Trump blah, blah, blah. The reality is where everything is clicking. Consumers are clicking, businesses are clicking, profits are clicking, manufacturing is clicking, construction is click. We have not had

8:33this in 25 years. We got to go back to the 90s. That's what we have to do. No one realizes it or maybe some people do. I'm just saying you won't read about it. But look at this, this is what's happening. Why couldn't yes, speaking good, 8400? I don't care. I mean, whatever the, you know, longer term horizon stock, you got to be in stocks, not bond stocks. Yeah. And I think we've drawn the analogy to the 90s for about four years now, but the end of the 90s, that's another story that we'll talk about another time. But it was a very different environment. And I think, you know, if you, if you listen to Chairman Moore, she has channeled his inner Alan Greenspan. And you know, if you think about what Greenspan did, well, he didn't talk very much and when he did none of us knew what the hell he was talking about anyway. And then, and then he had, you know, the understanding that productivity driven growth was disinflationary. We're above trend for the last five years or

9:36last seven years in productivity from the 29, 2000 to 2019 baseline. So if you look at, if you look at that and you say, what are we hearing from the companies? We listen to all the calls at Laffertinglar. And what we're hearing is it's spreading. So to, to Pete's point, it's not just technology companies. They're providing the solutions, but we're hearing from industrials and financials and pharmaceutical companies. How they're using AI and how it's improving margins and growth and new product development and client service. So rather than focus on job losses, which, by the way, guys, new business apps were up over five, I think close to 600,000 in July alone. So you've got good jobs numbers, people starting businesses that will be fueled by AI. This is a technological revolution, an economy and transition that will change the way we live and do business for decades or forever. And so I think it's hard to, it's hard to bet against that.

10:38And the last thing I'll say is Michael Burry, the big guy that's betting against it, owns Lulu Leman, which was down 20% and you think about more. So I don't get how Lulu Leman is. Who's this guy? Who's this guy? The great short or the great whatever it was called, you know, probably pee, but so Lulu's a cell or a buy and Nvidia is a short. So these guys that grab the headlines to your point, Larry. I would not listen to them. He's crazy. Now, we have the lead. We're whooping. We have the lead. That's correct. And I know there's some talk about the data centers. Data centers are helpful to communities. Yeah, I guess you have to work. You can look at the local. If it's these are the factories of old. In other words, it's like saying in 1895 or 1910, I can't you won't build a smoke factory. You're not going to build a car factory. Yes, you are.

11:42You're going to build it even though it may not be pretty. And it may not not, you know, it does you forth smoke. But the fact is we built them. We built them. That was our industrial engine. We're doing the same thing now. Data centers don't even they figured out how to circulate their water. They figured out how to circulate their power. They pay more in taxes so you can cut properties. These are the fact. These are the modern factories. That's the analogy that you have to make. And it will not be stopped. And all the Chinese can do is try to imitate us. They don't have an innovative creative bone in their body. Those little marks of socialism. Not they have nothing. All they do is try to imitate. And they're always going to be a year or two behind. Come on. I had Michael Kratzius on the TV show. The techie guy in the White House. He's good kid. Really good kid. He said, we're doing fine. We're doing great. And the head in the video was he

12:44was at that innovation thing at G20. He was in good spirits. We're not going to stop this. We're going to keep going. This socialist crap that's coming out the DSA. They're going to lose. You wait and see the midterms. The greatest story never told by the way is how the Democrats are going to get whooped in the midterms. You wait and see. Track me on this. I'm telling you there's an economic boom. Nobody wants socialism. Nobody wants El Sayed. Nobody wants Hassan Piker. Nobody wants anti-Semitism. And the stock market is going to reflect that. The stock market is telling us how good America is. That's what it's saying. I don't want to protest in all the way. It's also saying America is doing great. I totally agree with what you're saying Larry. And I'll even add to that. How about the fact that people want to they have all these surveys, right? And they survey a thousand people, a thousand people. That is not enough people to do the survey. And yet that's what they feed us. And then they tell us, well, 37% of them say that the grocery bills are higher.

13:48Well, that tells me that 63% didn't say that. And you know, when you look at that and you say to yourself, you know, the data that people from a measure standpoint is what people do on the surveys is how people feel. And it's a very small group of people that they're looking for on the negative side of things. And yet that comes out as something that's going to be driven by the commentary of that, that whole thing. But the reality is all you got to do is look at the true numbers. And what those numbers are showing us is this market is on fire. And that's why guys like Ed are looking for the S&P to go to 8400. You can get there. It might, but you know what? It's definitely been on a great path to the upside. You know, year to date, the Shanghai Chinese index minus 1%, the Hang Seng Chinese index 0.1%, and by the way, India is no better. The India's S&SX 30 minus 10%. India's this pathetic place. They should be doing so well and they know

14:55because they're over it. I'm just saying we're doing great year to date. RS and P is up 12.8%. Boom. Anyway, let's take a break. Now back to the Larry Kudlow show. Nancy Tengler CEO and chief investment officer of Lafertangular investments and Pete and Jerry and his co-founder of Market Rebellion and Option Monster. Nancy, is anybody worried about interest rates? Fed policy, any of that stuff? Actually, don't think you should be. If you look at Goldman Sachs did a study and they found no correlation between interest rates and stock price performance, the 90s confirmed that what matters is rate of change and why rates are change, why rates are rising in this environment. We think it's because of growth. Use the weakness and volatility that Pete's been talking about to add to high quality holdings and we think you still want to be along this market for the next

15:55three to five years. I talked to Scott Besson about this at the G20 when I interviewed him and he agreed that there has been a rise in Monos but it's real interest rates because of a growing economy. Not something to be afraid of. I mean, I don't know the Fed. The Fed mine snuggle up by a quarter of a percentage point. I don't know. I don't think any of that stuff matters. Yeah, the rise in rates is being driven by the rise in the economy which is fine and that is a 1990s thing by the way where I think Bond yields got to, and there were 6% but the economy is 8%. Scott's 8 between 5 and 8 during the 90s. Yeah, it doesn't matter. Cool. I like it. What's the best strategy? I think the best strategy is just to continue to be very disciplined because the markets are going to show you some great trading days as well as some pullback trading days. But the absolute direction is to the upside as both of you are talking about. It's a really interesting

16:59thing. I mean, when we talk about the Fed and how they're viewing things and Christopher Waller was out there talking about inclined to be supportive of things and it was very interesting how we've shifted back and forth from that CME tool that gives us the idea of where we stand right now. Are we going to raise? Are we going to stay put here as a pause or as the president would like to see it maybe a cut? The president points out the fact that he'd like to see that cut. I don't think we're going to see that but I do think that they were going to see a pause as we go forward. That should be pretty interesting. I don't think we need to raise rates by a quarter though. I just don't understand why we have to do that. All right, then we won't. It's okay. You don't want to do it. We're not going to do it. Nancy Changler, thank you. Peter and the gerian, thank you. Folks will take a break. Money politics on the other side.