NFL Picks Week 1 | Sports Gambling Podcast (Ep. 2680)

0:00This NFL picks week one edition of the sports game on podcast is brought to you by the free roll football contest $3,000 up for grabs. Enter today at sportsgamingpodcast.com slash free roll. THIS ONE OF THE DISTANT BAP FOR A Oh Welcome everyone to the sports gambling podcast. I'm Sean

1:01Stagging that money green with my partner and picks Ryan real money. Criver. What's happening? Creme Hello, Sean there's some glass bottles on the table. Let's go. We have some NFL picks in the hopper Yes, I mean Dangerously close most people will probably be surprised by football on Wednesday dangerously close to football on Wednesday What do you I was listening to a show and I heard these guys go oh football really snuck up on you What kind of world do you live in where football sneaks up on you? I've been I've been you know like a cage the animal waiting for some red meat waiting for some actual NFL games regular season games the pick against the spread Now this is normally when I would play the NFL on Fox theme music, but they kick the stream off and we're about to do our Yeah, our big wheel session so I can't do it, but

2:02How are you not jack for football would I would I legitimately find interesting if of the Football really snuck snuck up on us crowd a lot of those people is your mind well a lot of those people have also been Covering football. Yeah What do you mean it's stuck up on you? It's like this is this is Christmas morning. This is when we unwrap the presents This is when we lock it or bets we got survive where we got a circuit contest We got parlays we got locks we got dogs we got teases. I've spoken about this before, but there is a certain I don't want to call it relief because it's not or I don't want to call it anxiety, but there's a certain stress that builds Until the first game kicks off and really it kind of lingers until the first Sunday morning game kicks off where it's like have I done everything? I have my checklist have I entered all my contests have I made all my pick?

3:05Have I Did I get down on that prop? I wanted to get down on a boy when I got out to Vegas. There is something's that there's some Fomo. Well did I miss out? Did I get all my futures in do I have all my picks ready to go? So I I will say though the number one thing that has helped me in my life This is all artisanal to is literally have a checklist. Yeah Got got to get this million entry in got to get that million got to get my survivor entry in got to get my free roll survivor entry over here Yeah, that's a little flex got to get my I mean it I I have a and I'm not even in about no fantasy leagues this year basically still got a long list of shit great Well, you were I saw you earlier today. Well, there was it. I had to actually do the draft because I waited the last second I invited my manager Cody Z, but the NASCAR gambling podcast, but it was too late. How I actually had to draft and apparently you can't have a co manager join during the middle of the draft. How many

4:07Yeah, so you literally waited until the draft to let him know he needed to draft. Well, I get I was my fault I had let him know late when the draft was it was not on my radar. I have real Gambling to do I'm not gonna spend time carrying about this $80 fantasy league with my Family, but I was happy with my truck Cramer, but we're not here to talk about drafts. No one gives a fuck about drafts. We care about the phrase That pays let's hear that song one more time this song fucking rocks This doesn't get you high for football nothing will Thousand dollar NFL future up for grabs We have a number a number of things to discuss sure first off What we got to talk about the people that got super creative was sending in their entry shout out to the audience Ryan They really they really went above and beyond and some of the some of the fun ones we have here live on our desk

5:14Do you hear this? Yes, that's the pile of that. This is the sound of the the I mean, we had to get a new rim of paper all the facts that came in on real how many people have access to a fact So and there was a bunch of great entries a bunch of a hostage style letters that we received the post office made like three separate This is how dumb the post offices. They made like three separate deliveries There was like a last second delivery that just got in the wire so shout out to everyone waiting to the last second couple Entries worth highlighting we got a Someone put their entry on a potato. That was our buddy Ryan O'Flan again. Look at this. This is one of my We stop on the potato road. Sure Impressively hard to judge because there's also a site like if you didn't know the person That's kind of a crazy thing to send someone. I mean, Sean if you just got a single potato to your house. Yes Would you view it as a gift or a threat?

6:14You don't know it is ominous He put like a horse head is a fish. Are we going to put a little silica gel packet? I guess so that the potato didn't go bad, but I appreciate that. Shout out to the anonymous potato. This is This one's really cool. Look at this. They put all the Sennis one mini helmet for each team with the phrase on each helmet very creative helmets in order very nice Dakota Burgess you won't be deducted because you share your name with rain Dakota Prescott. No, no, no, gave you bonus entries and we tossed in some bonus entries the people that went above and beyond Kramer you have a personal engraving Patrick Hoffman sent that one in this is really cool. I don't know if you can see I don't know if the camera can quite pick it up Look at that thing. That's awesome. This is cool and The the stuff that got sent in was just great This one is real quick the other thing that we can see J the man the box was helping us there is an element of

7:19This was hand done if you look at this closely there there nothing is lined up correctly It looks like a child like a child may have done it and I appreciate that. Yes. I appreciate the the unique some guy had his kids Right out the phrase that pays raising them right I like that. Yeah. I like that a lot this one is What also one of my personal favorites right if we can get a solo camera on this one a fucking plaque That says the phrase that pays you know this is going up in our office now. Yeah, I think landed Mernard said this was his in the chat It said it was from Terence Daring Because I think that was like the guy who actually makes the plaques, but look at this thing. Look at how sharp that is So the guy who makes the plaque might actually be on well, I didn't I yeah, I should have done more digging But we'll sort of and then the top dog the guy who went above and beyond Build Dell court look at this give him a nice

8:19Shout out Ryan. He said I'm not trying to plug my family's whiskey company, but I will happily grab the middle bottle though Sean come back I saw on you because it's not just that this beautiful whiskey showed up I mean look at this and we are not above being bribed Just so everyone knows printed out the phrase that pays on a bottle of whiskey that I guess I think it's a family whiskey Bill del court and the whiskey is travelers point whiskey. I got a glass of it right here Thank you bill for stocking the studio Obviously get a toss a couple of bonus entries there, but um, I mean this again This is just it's supposed to be fun football's awesome. We love you guys. We love all the stuff you sent in And it's a time to get super creative and just get fucking excited about football So well, we didn't expect I mean we had hundreds of entries submitted the old-fashioned way just online Yeah, which is cool too appreciate I didn't want to give a call out to the the the top dog on the fax line For great submitting a r a i r via fax

9:22I mean imagine how much you you would sell so many cruise packages if you faxed all the offices in your neighborhood this about 25 years ago and then Yeah, Faustino did the paper bag that was the Dallas Cowboys official headgear There's a lot of trashy know the Cowboys those people got Maybe a couple bonus points. So again, it's supposed to be fun. Appreciate everyone taking the time to listen to the team previews Hopefully you got you some good winners As always the contents free this contest is free Wait, free. I'm sure we beat last year's record right? We're not raking. How are we supposed to make any money if we don't rake Sure, we beat last year's record. So we will bump it up. Well that was one of the bullet points. We had to get to yeah What's oh, and sorry also custom mugs Gentlemen got printed the answer on these models. Oh, these are these are fabulous Here get hold that up again Sean. I got a holding Kyle I so in on you. Yeah, look at this Well, and it's custom per person. It's got a year says go first. Yeah, there's a go and there was some personal arts

10:26Someone died. I don't have his name, but he did like a postcard of a eagle and a cowboy. So you know Even if you just took the time to the time sorry to Put anything together spend a little extra time on your entry And it's not necessarily spend it money. It's about you know putting in time showing your love for football in the brand and uh, this is great because um Friend of the program Jake he submitted his entry via a video slideshow so Ryan Why don't we play that and reveal the phrase that pays Let me start that from the beginning. Okay Sad dad You know and grown up To have a Eid in one wedding We just deal more than the zero Conference champion ship appearances of rain

11:27Press So there you go. That's the phrase. Thank you everyone again for taking the time however you did it the creativity the artwork the The paper bag the mishade all the stuff. It's really cool We appreciate the love and we're giving it back. So Ryan will j Will bump it up to uh 1100 dollars Nice little 10% bonus for you guys going above me on And now it's time Ryan and yes Yeah, no, I like that. I was gonna say and we have this sick uh sick wheel you can't even see the names. They're so small I think I think in total Just to give you a breakdown we had Over four. Yeah, so we had uh In total over there's over 600 entries on the wheel. Oh my god Um Over 50 People mailed or facts something in this this year which is what we get a half dozen facts

12:28Yeah, and maybe a couple things mailed to the office again last year the bar of greatness was this Ha ha prisoner jade this was a very honest uh which was cool. Yeah And he got the ball started of sending your cool artwork Whatever it is that that's uh it's fun It's about uh just getting jack for football kramer enough messing around it is time Poor the phrase that pays wheel hit that spin good luck to everyone Oh, I can't wait to see who's gonna win also awesome work by Colby on the art And it's spinning it spins forever. It goes on forever Like a roulette wheel Can't even see it can't even see it Oh, it's 20 to oh pays the facts. I have I there was some there were not everyone potentially had a name I wasn't issue people forgot to include their cover sheet. I wanted to make sure we didn't have any issues

13:32So let me pull this up real quick Um, I did make a legend we have um And by the way, I like like I said earlier. I'm amazed by how many people have access to a fact And most of these were not like email facts then Sean yeah Okay, so we have one Oh my goodness, who is it Well talk about timing being everything This was the last facts sent in oh my god And I'm gonna let's just put it on the screen Let's get this bad boy on the screen Oh this facts what this is the winner Uh phrase that pays written by a seven-year-old shout out to the seven-year-old that and look you I mean got it all in there Oh, PPS fuck the cowboys I like this all of a sudden Nick Masney Nick and I apologies for showing you Nick masney

14:34Nick masney congratulations We'll reach out via email and we'll get you that $1100 in FL future You know happy. I am a fact set a male a faxer one Ah, this was it's a long time come shout out to the facts crew Uh, which is great because uh, we have an analog audience so Uh, and this was very much analog and it uh Yes I can't say fuck the cowboys what could be what what could possibly be better than that? This is awesome So uh congrats to Nick and uh good luck everyone uh next year and if you're bummed Oh, I didn't win Good news Because uh the free roll football contest is alive and well get in your entry sports game on the podcast Dot com slash free roll $3,000 winner take all four thousand if you're a patreon member The lines are added they go live as soon as we get them loaded in our sheet for the pic show

15:34sportsgamerpodcast.com slash free roll to get in there so congrats To Nick the winner and uh good luck on the free roll football contest, Kramer Thank you. Am I am are we eligible this year for the free roll? Yeah Uh, yeah, maybe if we win I guess we just get to keep the money Oh my goodness I don't even want it. I don't even want to address what I just saw Okay, I just we'll we'll talk about that. It's like are we right? So phrase the page is done anything else we need to address before We get down into it No, so uh let's go But how many days do you have to get in the free roll football contest? Oh well you can enter I guess we'll close it uh Sunday, but certainly your chances are better if you get in before the first game so that you can Pick that game. Obviously if you get in late if you're listening this on Friday or Saturday You're a slacker, but don't worry you can still get in you probably would have got those first couple games wrong Anyway, so don't sweat so we're not gonna we will close it before week two. That's what I'm hearing

16:40Yes, after week one, we will close the contest. Okay All right, let's get into it. Let's go, baby NFL week one And we have the wrong game up first classic. Ah Nothing like Colby For the win. I In fairness, I did glance at them, but I was checking point spread so all right week And we should once again remind people the league is instead of going Thursday Friday there's some Reason why we're going Wednesday Thursday And we have the Super Bowl champs and a Super Bowl rematch on a Wednesday Sean Seattle Seahawks this number has recently moved it's dropped down to three Patriots are plus one 55 on the money line Minus one eighty four the Seahawks 44 is the total we saw this one Holded three and a half for much of the summer and even went even at that point we said well, uh wait a second

17:44A who was asking for this rematch to kick off the season B we just watched this game See how is the point spread only three and a half it moves the other way we know what this means Somehow the sharps have found their way into an interesting Patriot situation could it be because of the injury news on Seattle side I don't think there's anything that serious there, but certainly uh Nick Which I I know CJ butchered Eman worries name earlier today, but I've heard much worse pronunciations in the past 24 hours None of those guys seem like they're totally out and so I don't quite understand the movement I don't uh, we also are dropped you know, it's a I'm sure you have the trend on like teams dropping the banner I'm sure you've also had you also have the trend of teams coming off a Super Bowl loss. Yeah, no, it's it's it's obviously bad for teams who lose the Super Bowl Super Bowl losers 11 to 15 straight up six and 20 ATS in particular bad on the road three and 13 ATS the Super Bowl loser

18:45Truly a Super Bowl hangover now. This is very rare that they play each other I think if you're talking to yourself into the Patriots you're talking yourself into some revenge factors But teams coming off the Super Bowl win at home 14 9 and 1 ATS last uh 24 home openers there Certainly, this is a unique situation in the fact that they're playing each other but Ryan When we picked this game for the Super Bowl It was on a neutral field and the spread was four and a half right Correct. So in my mind I have Seattle's home field at least uh point to half. I think they have a legit home field So what has adjusted these power? So to me if that if the Super Bowl would have been played at home I would the four and a half would have become a six So now we have a move from six to three points and I'm looking at what these teams did in the offseason and I'm really Scratch your my head as to try and figure out why Seattle's only lane three now. Yes. They don't have Kenneth Walker But optimistic about Jadarian price um, yeah, they're not giving them two and a half points at home

19:47You want to know I mean what in a half conservative? So maybe it should be seven Um, you know jadarian price. Yeah sure. He's not and they um they didn't have sharp And they're not even in the Super Bowl so they still don't have him Jadarian price. I think is gonna hit the ground running Um, I think I think they offense is gonna be able to move the ball okay against his Pat's defense I have questions about the Pat's defense But my real question is still the Pat's offensive line and their ability to protect Drake may I know they brought in Romeo jobs and AJ Brown But I still think Seattle's defense does a good job matching up against him sales defense number one DBOA against number one receivers last year like this Yeah, you lost to re-quollen who's a nice piece and even marie is banged up, but I I think he's still gonna go Yeah, I see no reason to sounds like him Horton. Yeah, it sounds like all the limited guys are gonna go And a lot of it is like well Will Campbell was an healthy got a lives your bearer Tucker, but I don't know Ryan. We mentioned this in the prop show, but South pal highlighted the Pat's offensive line

20:52Was kind of losing the day against the Eagles defensive line and joint practices and the Seattle's defensive line is no joke on top of it The Pat's offensive line You're gonna deal with that offensive line in that environment. I mean, Seattle is one of the really loud stadiums And you're dropping a banner and and you're expected to go in in New England and you're only getting three points You also have a west coast team for a late-night game I mean, we talk we're gonna talk. I'm sure circadian rhythms with the Australian game But I think it's worth mentioning here like East Coast teams in the second half of a late Monday night game How's that gonna be and just Seattle in general? Seattle is a tough out at home 33 and seven straight up at home in their first three games of the regular season Now, you know, Mike Raeble He's been solid as a dog, but Mike McDonald 21 and two Straight up is a favorite in his career now Obviously, it's a it's a short career span

21:52He hasn't been a coach for very long and yeah, I think eventually the the The energy of like running it back Gets you later in the season and that's why it is so difficult to run it back to go through that arduous playoff run again But early on in the season you're jacked up. You're you're letting that adrenaline carry you And match applies I struggle to see why New England should only be getting three points against the Seattle team who is just a tough out at home Yeah, I mean, if you didn't say the what's it was six and 20 ats for the Super Bowl losers to open the season Yeah, so three and 13 ats on the road I I tend to the end to your point now I get it. It's this weird revenge thing, but Yeah, I mean, I think the revenge, but one of the Seattle's not gonna have motivation They're they're super whole champs and they're at home. I think we've also if you've

22:57If I mean really wasn't a uh you didn't really get a lot of it from hard knocks, but if you read the Seattle beat there certainly is a Maybe Seattle likes it this way, but there is certainly a you know I got my eye on this team down south that somehow is the favorite to win everything Even though and also to like And I may be guilty up in a little bit as well, but like Seattle for a Super Bowl champ and their dominant running even you look at DVOA historic DVOA. Yeah, how many people are picking Seattle to win the NFC West? How many people are picking Seattle to repeat? It's it's very easy for Mike McDonald to sell that locker room of like here's Super Bowl champs and people are still talking shown you Sam Darnell they still don't believe in you there is an element of You just won the Super Bowl and people still think you suck You don't think they're gonna come out fired up week one. I don't think people have the same Like the data reflects much more kindly on the Seahawks than most people's memory of that team

24:00That's why we can have every hot take show say yeah is Sam Darnell capable of winning a Super Bowl as the topic even Month after he just won the Super Bowl. I mean, shout out to FS one for just being able to you throw a little green turf on the table And you you ask of us guy who just won the Super Bowl can win the Super Bowl And we saw New England struggle against top teams yet granted they had that magical run But a lot of it was these other teams shitting the bed or that crazy Denver game Justin Herbert in the playoffs CJ Straub in the playoffs when they faced a competent team in Seattle They got worked and you look at that score. It wasn't as That score was not as close as suggested like Seattle left some plays on the board And the case for New England. I understand thorough avenge factor chip on their shoulder. Yeah, he had a but how does that Is that not applied to Seattle here as well? I think you have to believe that New England can handle the defensive line of For for you to believe that they can

25:01Change what happened in the first game is that is to say they're gonna not get dominated with the front four of Seattle And I see no reason to To think that if you listen to the prop show that we recorded earlier today I gave out a sack prop for for Seattle. It seems like that matchup still exists and this to me It's almost like the the sharps aren't taking their own medicine on Making adjustments to teams and being too much beholden to what the number used to be But this open to your point earlier Sean you're four and a half was the opener back in May And so all that's happened since the Super Bowl and since Mike Mike variables somewhat distractions Is the number has come in a point and a half yeah, I don't understand it when the game is going from being a neutral site game To in Seattle Seattle has one of the best home fields in the league and those and the the sharps are the ones that are doing it

26:03So is it just a J Brown like I don't I don't get it lay lay the ground should not be moving the line. I feel great So early season, but we we were talking out in Vegas And I was like I got to get down on some of these games. Yeah, so I know the number is gonna move and I went to the window and as I mentioned on the prop show I had a little double Hand-paid pink at the high limit as I said good night the slot How's the slot and I had I had the funds to get in on the Seattle game and I said you know what I'm gonna wait a little bit Got a weird feeling about this one. Mm-hmm and we're seeing it. We're seeing a classic room Remove ever move ever reverse move and it's it's a nonsensical. So maybe we'll be wrong Lay the points with Seattle all day Seattle lay in the three twice on To a twice on Wednesday my bad there you go Seattle Seahawks lay in the three. Let's go baby Yeah, I'll fix that in a second next up

27:08You know, I'll slide back one we gotta go back in time here for Thursday Which we heard Shanahan talking a little bit about Being in a different time space continue on as he was really he was really Atta sorts there with his uh, well, but it's Wednesday, but it's Thursday And then there's obviously a ton of debate about circadian rhythms. Do you show up an hour? I mean the Rams are basically showing up 24 hours before the game The so so real real quick San Francisco catching the three and a half in the road game that the Rams chose to be a home game In division in Australia a very strange Also if you if you dug into this a little bit the Rams apparently this is one of the Rams territories Um, where they can host international games even though they don't have any fans here Rams Uh minus 215 on the money line Niners plus 185 48 is the total continue talking about the crazy ass travel plans for the Rams So there was a there was a nugget I saw that basically summed it up the the Rams will spend more than 30 hours on an airplane

28:12Travel over 15,000 miles cross seven times zones and play a football game yet technically be back in Los Angeles less than 72 hours after leaving Um, so that is just kind of Kind of wild their their plan of showing up super late now they believe the sciences on their side 49ers think the idea of getting out there early Um, makes kind of more sense There's a bunch of injury stuff on both side uh on both sides worth discussing. I mean we'll start with Nick Bosa coming back off an ACL. He has not gotten a full practice Um, in yet he is still expected to play in this game. That's interesting. George Kiddles coming off the ACL Um, or sorry the Achilles and he's supposed to play. I'm skeptical of that. We love the tone gets touchdown stuff. Oh my We've been talking a ton about that. It does seem like if I was reading a situation I think shant, I mean, it's like Shanahan McVey they like to play games with each other It does seem a little bit maybe like some of this is gamesmanship

29:16I wonder how effective some of these play my Kevin's a good example where he was saying hey, I'm You know all the injury stuff. I'm totally fine and he was the only bunch of nagging injuries of Christian McCaffrey He was the almost tightness. He took like 10 Couple weeks off from training camp. He seems fine. He's questionable He's questionable again a keylon black. I think is a fun anytime touchdown as a as a big dart throw Myles Garrett was dealing with knee swelling a bunch and If that thing flames up on the trip you don't have a lot of time for that to the swelling to go down That's interesting puka also dealing with an injury. There was a chance Puka wasn't going to play according to Adam Schefter. Then Adam Schefter corrected his own point So there's all this injury stuff floating around But ultimately to me this is when Shanahan thrives on with these banged up teams and to me I'm always skeptical of a super team with the with the tremendous amount of height

30:18You go and just on top of it David underdogs and week one division games have been great hitting at 58% since 2003 The counter for the Rams is oh favorites have done well historically in the international games This does seem to be a little different than some of the other international games because of how crazy The travel is I just think the 49ers always get up for this game and historically This is just a division matchup where In my mind it was like always take the dog in these in these crazy rivalry games And the the the data backs up since 2019 the underdog is 13 and two ats in games between Sean McVey and Kyle Shanahan That includes Uh the Rams covering as like a four and a half point favorite last year in San Francisco. So I It's turned into Raven's Steelers Yeah, where someone's getting the point you take him Especially if it's more than a field and there's I don't know as far as the game flow the total like

31:20You could This game being an Australian does make the handicap super tough But in a wild ass game in another country in another hemisphere Wouldn't you in a in a division rivalry game? Doesn't it make sense to take the dog doesn't it make sense to take the team that's been out there and a little bit more accustomed to it I get the case for the Rams obviously they have a great roster But I mean we've talked so much about I mean that staffers back How can this flight be good for a guy dealing with the back injuries now they did a good job of Using the strategy they left from Baltimore. They flew to a London they destroyed the Jags But this feels like a different situation and this feels like a different team was so much hype Yeah, they were coming from Baltimore My biggest my simple take on all this because I've heard both sides of the sleep argument and I think both sides have a fair I understand why you might think both sides are correct the part that I disagree with is I don't care if you have

32:25A bed for everyone on that plane. Yeah, you're not all been on long plane flights So it's just it just strikes me as maybe the Rams are better equipped for the rest of the year but I There's also just a million things that could You're just you're just shortening the gap. There's a massive weather system between here and there um It just seems like the Niners being there getting acclimated has to help for this game. How does that hurt? I don't get it also seems very clear They're gonna have the fans the Niners that is for whatever that matters I mean the Australians are known for having a good time ever watching Australian rules football or rugby match like the crowds get rowdy And so I I guess you have to maybe give them a little bit of an edge and we've seen in these International games where they're not used to 300 pound dudes chewing up the turf These games get kind of sloppy and ugly and that to me makes me want to like the dog even more right

33:25and it's just I like I like the idea of Shana hand like I like the idea of shana hand using this spot And using everything else that's going on going against the super team. Yeah as a You know, we it's not like mig vee has had success of late but Shana hand always brings his best stuff against smick vee And I always figures out ways to deal with injured guys Yeah, that's when he thrives in these spots. So um Yeah, it's not a give me the San Francisco 49ers plus three and a half Kramer also on the 49ers plus three and a half as the international dog and this is one of the Games I already bet on I pretty much made that decision when Kiti mox called him out for Being scared to play the night or some their home building That really is a bitch move because it becomes Levi southe now it's going to become Levi's uh south southern hemisphere Do you want to you want and

34:27Not quite if you're in the sheets of your part of the patreon You'll see the Rams are getting the money. So the green dollar sign next to them Obviously that makes you like the Niners more of the only question becomes does this get bigger with maybe news of How they'll actually use kittler how they'll actually use both so that's I didn't actually I guess Donald being out also. Yeah, we didn't mention Aaron Donald didn't make the trip but I don't know. I don't think anyone was expecting to see him in this game. No, it more I don't know Maybe the same person that surprised by Wednesday night football. I thought there was a chance this gets a four and And obviously still a couple days before this game Thursday night. I bet it last week before we left Vegas because I was worried of that Oh, no, I'm sorry. I know I'm you thought it might be a different game. I'm sorry. I did bet it though All right, I wasn't sure I think three and a half's good. I'd be shocked if this gets down to three I think there's a small chance it gets a four but probably three and a half is where no this was this was one that didn't strike me I was gonna move

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37:34But again easiest tool I've ever used highly recommend it and you don't believe me just try it out one month free Try it out good start to football season and it's one month free clutch par lays.com promo code sgpn I like that We're on the sharp side already. Let's go Oh, we're on the clutch par lays side. I don't know about the sharps Oh, I mean guys who clutch par lays sharp. Sure. I don't know what you're trying to say The NFL is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with our 32 NFL team previews And of course your chance to win a thousand dollar NFL future with Oh Well, this this there's a lot going on in this next game. We're now on Sunday morning. So we've we've talked Wednesday night We've talked Thursday night We don't have Friday night and now we will have some college to talk about but 10 a.m. on Sunday

38:38We have eight games in the early windows. Scott Hanson will blabber on about commercial free football not really Cleveland Dishon Watson taking on a team he's familiar with in his former division the aFC south and the Jacksonville Jaguars Jags up to eight and a half now minus 400 on the money line plus 320 for the browns coming back 40 and a half is the total Dishon Watson is the starter if you haven't been paying attention to football and Dishon Watson is seven and oh when games he has started against the Jacksonville Jaguars in his career I know I saw our friends over at survivor atlas projected Basically Jags and and chargers as I told you would happen are gonna be one a one b Maybe people getting cute. So this gonna be a survivor play for people You're gonna hear a lot of people this week tell you they love it in a teaser leg, which I do as well Todd munkin not having season long captains this year shong gonna go with a week to week approach

39:41I kind of like how Todd munkins like the senai old guy who doesn't know that he has to follow some other bullshit rules And he's just doing whatever he wants But I think I think part of I can't imagine that he thinks the He thinks the shan Watson's his best option And I just can't imagine that goes well. We have not seen to shan Watson look anywhere near a serviceable quarterback in some time So it's gonna have to be good running game. Yep. We don't know about the offensive line They have plenty of talent everywhere else on the offense. Yeah, the defense of course That is talented, but I have a lot of questions about what we're gonna see change wise going from a You know when when Jim Schwartz was at his best coaching defenses That defense has an identity and that identity very much is about him and how he plays defa or coaches defense I'll be curious to see that transition Going from miles to having miles Garrett on your defense to not having miles Garrett on your defense even if that replacement is Jared verse

40:45eight points is a lot for the Cleveland Browns But it's an early season game in Florida another angle that we love. Yeah, I like that angle underdogs though Ryan Of six and a half points or more are 53 and 30 ATS in week one I know since 2005 they're under 500 ATS and just one of those 21 seasons So I don't if you look at the matchups you can't make a case for the Cleveland Browns The only way you can make a case for the Cleveland Browns if is if you look at just the history of dogs in week one And even to shan Watson he's closed as a six point underdog eight times as a starting quarterback basically exactly this spot His teams are oh and eight he's never won But he's five and three ATS. Yeah Yeah And and you mentioned the defense Yeah, I have tons of questions about that defense Jim Schwartz seemed to get the most out of the defense, but there is talent on that defense defense of rookie the air Carson a Schwestinger Denzel Ward

41:45Obviously Jared versus it miles Garrett, but he's still a pretty damn good defensive lineman And the Jacksonville Jaguars their offensive line was banged up at times In general, there are people that would point out that they You know, they didn't always Have to play the toughest defense when they had some success last year. I just there's too much to I understand why we should take the points here. Yes But if this if we're looking at let's just say the Jags go on to be a 12-win team and let's say the Browns end up being a four-win team You wouldn't be surprised if this game was played in two months if this was 10 points This is the exact kind of game that we are talking about 10 points I mean shit the charger laying 10 points against the Cardinals. Is that really that different here But the case against the Jags this year is more a season-long case against their schedule. Yeah, not having the home games It's not a case that you don't want to fade Them coming into a year where the year two and Liam Cohen's offense year two for Trevor Lawrence where he clearly

42:50Took to the offense. They have this kid Parker Washington who if he wasn't a nerd didn't have a nerd name he'd be a An absolute darling in fantasy It just seems like I have too much faith this offense is going to be a problem So now you're saying well the Browns be able to handle the trip down to by the way the country's really fucking hot right now It's gonna be very hot in human down in Florida. I'll fade the Browns week two, but week one. I'm taking the points This might be getting a little cute. Yeah, I think you are a nominal. I'm laying the points And in the main reason is I don't want to be cute here. Give me the Browns plus eight and a half I'm not being cute with the Shaw Watson. What what are our friend Dave from big play? So oh he had a great he had a great phrase I'm not touching to Sean Watson. I but listen to Dave. He's a Cleveland guy. He knows just so you know one more time Dave Oh, sorry I told you to start the program I understand that but you realize if Cleveland somehow hangs around

43:51That stat is going to be hanging in your head about the Shaw Watson versus the Jags these week one dogs So I'll take the Browns. I don't know how it's going to happen This is going to be a 22 to no 2417. I'll play it. I like it better in a teaser Judkins I mean, I you know if we end up on one of our survivor entries on the Jags I can live with that but Eight and a half points is way too much All right, we're still luck. Thank you. I mean this is one where it's like there are times where you have to observe the gambling Instincts and there are times where you have to realize that the Shaw Watson is gonna We had this exact conversation about the Shaw Watson going down to Jacksonville and I said you were on How many times are we going to have what we can bet against the Shaw and Watson against the decent Jags team How many years ago was that it was 2024 exactly. Yeah, it's my point. He's two years worse Let me read you his box score from the game they won outright

44:53Um in 2024 just to just to paint the picture Liam Cohen wasn't the coach then Trevor Lawrence was the quarterback That was a different time ETN at the time. Yeah, they also had Brian Thomas Jr. 2 for 94 To Shaw Watson 22 of 34 for 186 yards Took a couple sacks 30 to 13 Jacks jags win walking away Let's go good luck. No really go brownies game two in the early window bucks bangles This is kind of a spicy matchup here bangles lay in three and a half minus 200 on the money line bucks plus 175 50 and a half Is the total Baker gets paid. Yeah, does that make you like the bucks more I was debating that it's it can kind of go both ways. I like baker with a chip on his shoulder and and you know needing to play for that contract but also

45:54I don't know there it kind of becomes a distraction and it's baker versus ownership So I like that they paid him Todd balls looks pretty loose Little looser than you tip. I think he feels good about his defense this year. Yeah And we've mentioned this in the preseason stuff But when Todd bulls defense is at its best it's impossible to run against because they have a strong front four Yep, which I think they they took care of that both bring it in vain. They'll have a healthy Vita Vega Cancay back and they went out and got a linebacker So we'll the secondary will still be the piece that has to get it done But if we expect the defense to maybe be a little bit better than then Advertised and we're looking we're staring down the barrel of another year where Are the bangles gonna start slower? Are they not gonna start slow? We like with the upgrades to their front seven on the defensive side of the ball And it certainly does make me wonder what is this offense for the bucks gonna look like but the bucks I haven't heard a ton of people talking about the bucks and how bad their offensive line was hurt last year

46:57Yeah, that's right. It's a big story The bucks it not really and they had I don't have the exact adjusted games lost but I bet you it's up right up there in terms of offensive line injuries to the chargers last year So You know, I like I like the idea that they're They're back. They have all the pieces in the right positions. Remember they had their they had like Center playing tackle they they was all over the place and so it does seem like Well, I like both of these teams this year. I don't know if I can lay More than a field goal. I like the bangles. I think the bangles are gonna be a good team this year But I don't see them being that much different than the bucks. Yeah, I think you sprinkle in the hesitancy because the bangles find a way to start slow every year And you sprinkle in the fact that the bucks I tend to start fast maybe on maybe that's just me misremembering No, you're right Ryan because I'll drop you this bowls Todd bowls 12 and three against the spread in weeks one and two and then you look on on the opposite side

48:02A burrow four and eight eights in the first two games of the season the shoes three and nine straight up in weeks one and two And that includes a week one victory last year where the browns outgain the bangles by 200 plus yards So we'll remember that game like they almost blew that game And that was a game where they they also played in preseason Chase Brown I think is gonna struggle because if Vita V is in there It's a great play to take the running back under on the on the yards And you highlighted why I like this bucks team in this situation their offensive line is healthy Look go to any sort of O line rankings place you want to look at That with Tristan Worfs in there when they're healthy. They're like a top five consensus offensive line And I know the bangles improve slightly on the D line they bring in Dexter Lawrence. I get it But this Tampa Bay Bucks defensive line. I think is gonna give the bangles some trouble and I test When the bangles are playing their starters in preseason that bangles offensive line did not look good That's well if you were only look at that matchup the the defensive line versus offensive line matchup

49:05You at least have some level of belief that the Bucks offensive line assuming they stay healthy can handle the upgraded front of the bangles whereas I know what this Bucks defensive line could look like and we know that Bane is you know the short arm talk is almost certainly gonna mean He's gonna be fucking good. He looks like he has a chip on his shoulder. It's like on some level I understand and there's gonna be games where we're gonna be like look he got shut down He's definitely gonna have games where things are harder But he's playing next to tremendous defensive tackles and I think he's gonna have some chances to beat Bad tackles and you know this is gonna be a good this will be a great test for him because no one he's going against in this game is elite Now Ryan where you at with the Bucks receiver injury stuff they were You know our body was dealing with some potential turf toe, but maybe it's just a foot spray Big move and big boo yeah, he was a little banged up jaylen mickmillan little banged up

50:10um Chris godwin is healthy a k dotten. I think has a great match up if you recall the bangles Let up 16 touchdowns to the tight end last year. I love k dotten anytime k dotten two touchdowns. I'm already on that so It per One of the Bucks beat reporters Greg almond Abuka and mickmillan were on the practice field Monday. Yeah, so that's a great side you know We don't know what kind of what level of practice slash walkthrough we were doing on a Monday But They were out there Better than them not being out there the first injury report will show up on Wednesday So would you know, thanks to the whenth and I game we don't have that yet, but My worry is that we know that Turf toe is limiting and so it's hard to imagine he will be a hundred percent Yeah, and I just I believe in this Bucks team early in the season and the pain So it's hurt though. So from running back perspective if that's something on your rave

51:13You're a shuntucker high Just a couple of my DFS lineups. I read some dark horse shuntucker stuff, but the re I mean What have you heard about Chris godwin this off season nothing which is good. Why it? Yeah, you know, which You know, it's your point and they You know, you want to talk about a team that was able to figure it out Maybe this is a testament to Baker when the offensive line was struggling They were still able to get guys to pop the cam johnson test john they were able to find guys to pop up ted Hurst which was he was a draft Nick darling and also kind of having some fun moments in the in the preseason. So I Look, they're a franchise you almost have to trust with the receiver position. They've kind of been successful at it So I And your mark chase was a little banged up too. I mean, I'm sure he'll be out there, but I think he's fine. Yeah But back back to the you mentioned it earlier, but k dot and becomes a very interesting piece Well, maybe talk more about him in the prop show. Give me the Tampa Bay Bucks Kramer also on the bucks three and a half point road dogs

52:17Are you money lining this? We going is this going in the round robin? Yeah, that you think so I've identified three teams that are in a money line round robin the bucks are one of them right Oh, I can't wait to see who else is in the room, but I don't know what's going to be my official dog because there's a cut I mean, I'm looking at this card. I think I'm going to be somewhat dog heavy, which is fine place to be we want We're a couple three and a half's in and we're both times we're taking it not laying it like We're not listening to our own medicine the rules of the gambling uh, I don't know. Oh, you're that's right You like to spit in the face of the game. I don't know. I don't know if that's much of a thing. Oh wow You just saying there's no god I believe in gambling gods. Okay. I don't know if they care about the three and a half I'm going to be laying some three and a half's coming up state to game three in the early window the Ravens take on the cults This one just means more to the cities or at least one of the cities we bleed blue They just draw. I mean, they just literally left with a moving truck in the middle of the night Ravens laying three and a half now

53:21On the road in the dome minus 190 on the money line cults a plus 165 home dog 48 the total We've handicapped this a little bit throughout the summer, but Chainsdike and took Jesse Mentor's defense to the cleaners last year In maybe a more talented defense with the chargers and now they have you know, obviously you're going against Lamar but As a three and a half point home dog this Again not laying it taking it. Maybe I'm playing the game wrong This was one of the games that stood out to me immediately when the card As we especially as we got closer to the season especially as I identify the chainsdike and owns Jesse Mentor And especially because I know I want to fade this Ravens team Because of how much they have all the moving parts in the in the leadership positions on this team coaching Then I want to see it before I believe it So I was always going to fade the Ravens week one here. I just happened to be gifted a great spot So we have a rookie head coach in Jesse Mentor

54:24A rookie offensive coordinator How old is he 30 years old 30 I mean look at Caleb Williams Caleb Williams kind of struggle with that Ben Johnson offense early on and he's way better than Lamar well, I mean Regardless, I think you could make a case that Ben Johnson is better than his protege a teclin Doyle So are the is the offense going to hit the ground running I'm a little skeptical on that on top of it You have a rookie head coach as a road favorite rookie head coaches making their debuts road favorites are on a 0 and 4 run Shout out to our buddy Rosenberg for that nugget But in you know, instinctively I want to fade rookie head coaches as favorites especially as road favorites here And on top of it Not only did the Baltimore Ravens get rid of their center litter bomb But then they're back up the guy they were playing on starting was out for the season You have javan gwin going who's making his first ever start Insulin a new offense with Lamar Jackson with a rookie head coach as a road favorite and allowed rocus Indianapolis Colts environment

55:26Now the other side is Daniel Jones coming back from Achilles which is which is A tougher pill to swallow Alec Pierce there was a lot of question mark. It seems like he's going to play Are these how how good is he going to be then preseason injuries it kills me Saus Gardner versus a flowers. I think that's a good match up for the Colts But yeah, and now the Colts are also one of those teams that was always a bad play week one They were on a 714 and 2 ATS in season openers now Shane Sikin he's been decent or he's actually been really good in September 17 to 7 ATS a lot of that was like last year getting off to that hard start The reports are Daniel Jones is okay Um, I'm a little skeptical that if you want to say I'm fading Daniel Jones coming off in Achilles. I get it. It's just there's so many so much new stuff for this Ravens team So many moving parts You got to take the home dog here in the Colts yeah, and the last time

56:28Shane Sikin winning against Jesse Menter Jonathan Taylor had three touchdowns and 94 yards on only 16 carries yeah, and so What did the Raven struggle with last year They struggle would stop in the run I think we could see And this this is the kind of game where I fully expect the average person to want to plop their money down on the Ravens here And you're gonna turn this game on it's gonna be You know, it's gonna be the they're eating clock Daniel Jones was very efficient in this game the game Tyrone who Warren getting his Ryan I mean if you have the bets splits, I can't imagine people are on the Colts like this just feels like everyone's gonna be saying the Ravens is the play So the green book it's 60% on the the road chalk yeah Uh At circa it's 65% of the handle is on the Ravens so Interesting sharps like the Ravens maybe it would make sense right

57:32They like to carry over for one season to the next all right, so we're both on the dog is this is this identified as a money liner It's could be yeah, I think they're live could be Three times I've taken three and a half points it had not even halfway through week one I mean shambles I'm completely in shambles game number four in the early window the Atlanta Falcons They had to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers Stillers Pittsburgh's laying three and a half now Sean minus 180 on the money line Falcons plus one 55 41 and a half is the total Atlanta does They have someone on deck who did I who did I notate that they had on oh they have a divisional gamut against Carol And that was a big game last year on deck worth noting Probably not worth including in the handicap at this point they have not named a starter I don't believe as we're recording the Falcons Did they actually name two of the starter? Okay, I thought I read that um

58:34They were to uh maybe it was just for game one and they hadn't named the starter for the season And to uh tag ovalia The quarterback well apparently Michael Penex told him he wasn't a hundred percent So he it but sound like if he said if he told the coach he was a hundred percent he might have had the job So these young guys not wanting to play football um I mean I I'm a broken record. I love the Steelers Steelers have historically been good to me ATS but first off, let's just start to on the road to a wanted no part of getting hit Um, I'm a little worried about this Falcons offensive line against the Steelers defensive line I love bringing in Patrick Graham and pairing him with this Steelers defensive talent I think Mike McCarthy can still scheme up some good offensive plays especially in the regular season On top of that I think the Falcons lack a pass rush, you know a couple of years ago They went all in with those two first rounders To brush the passer neither guy obviously Jalen walkers

59:37Out for the year with an injury James Pierce is suspended. So there two stud guys are out our buddy Scott side burger on the trench reports side burger He better day they do a trench report breaking out some online D line This is one of their bigger Matt miss matches in favor of the Steelers plus fourth biggest of the week So I think they're going to win in the trenches I just this Falcons defense. I really question I think the Steelers are going to be able to eat against them Now maybe they have a little trouble with Beigeon But hey, if two of those on the road and beats me so be it Kevin Saphansky 1932 and one a T S on the road So I get it you were playing with a bad browns team and some of those but that's factored into the number I think Rico Dowdell Jalen Warren. They're going to get theirs And yeah, I think the Steelers are going to put it on the Falcons. So I'm all over the Steelers here home favorites Yeah, and if you zoom in further

1:00:38Stofansky not much success Period in Pittsburgh All of the success the Cleveland Browns had against Pittsburgh was in Cleveland. Yeah, and so as much as I Love that I have a two or most passing yards at a hundred to one of my pocket I Fully admit that it's a complete dumpster fire. I mean, you know Falcons have some offensive talent They have Beigeon Robinson they have Drake London they got Kyle pits But I just I'm skeptical that two of can execute this offense I want to take a piece of The Steelers to have the most offensive points In in week one I think when we get out to this that could be fun Because there's a world where like they're running it down their throat DK Metcalf's getting some easy stuff down the field Jalen Warren was listed as the starter over Rico Dowdell Okay, anything does that affect your handicap Not really. I think I think both will get carries DK Metcalf and Aaron Rogers obviously smoke weed together

1:01:41Does that change your handicap? What was it? He was I mean they have some sort of connection. He likes the conspiracy theories Aaron Rogers It sounds like yeah, it sounds like Um much to most of his haters Shagrin Aaron Rogers maybe liked by his teammates this time and There does seem to be again the vibes just seem to be good and so the idea that the Steelers come out Play a good opening game in front of the home crowd The hometown kid coming home to coach him and Aaron Rogers kicks off the season with like a night We talked about this offense McCarthy always having offenses that work So yeah, I I had to really sit down and think about this when we did miss out on getting a three here Well, I bet it at circuit three, but it's laying some decent juice, but I still like it here at three and a half So I thought about that same opportunity and I thought at the end of the day I said you know what I'd rather Do less juice with the three and a half because I think there's too many ceiling outcomes where Pittsburgh rolls it up on them

1:02:47I think I think the loss is gonna look more like that What did they lose of the bangles that you're like 1917 or something like that I think we might we I'm hoping so because we have the over 350 and a half points for the Steelers on the season, but good start to it Let's go give us the Steelers lay in the three and a half at home All right, so that's Halfway through the early slate skydads and still getting excited Next up game five buffalo the bills There are the road against Houston the team that they have not done well against historically And it's back to laying a point Sean out at the circuit minus one 15 on the money line Houston is a minus 105 on there with the plus one 44 and a half is the total There's a cup now this is a gambling instinct game And at when we were sitting at doing the visa show on last Friday It was like dang The it's it's flipped around

1:03:50We're not gonna get Houston as a home dog anymore. So to see it come back And again not someone that loves Houston even talked to the dawn of bills mafia He didn't exactly seem confident No, but this defense Again, everything we said about Baltimore the lot of there's some change in Buffalo. There was certainly some change right you You're going away from a A can I don't want to say conservative, but Sean McDermott had been a head coach for a long time So obviously some things have changed and you you've enabled your quarterback to be a part of that And maybe it's a good thing. Maybe it's not but certainly to open the season There's going to be a little bit of added pressure to me on the offense and these changes because they're Going into a tough situation and everyone's going to want to see like okay. Well, what What's the new guy all about? He's an offensive guy. What's the new guy all about? And on the flip side part of the reason we like the Nico Collins Fast future stuff is this could yes, this could be a good spot for them

1:04:51It's a decent matchup potentially for CJ Stroud if they get the running game going which Hard to imagine hard to to count on it But if the running game gets going and David Montgomery was the right right ad The play action is going to be a problem for Buffalo. Yeah, I and we'll start with the Houston offense of Side and I think they are going to get the running game going I you look at what they did last year They were 12 and 5 with woody marks being their leading rusher at 700 three yards 3.6 yards per carry Nick Chubb Nick Chubb was their second running back at 506 yards at 4.1 yards per carry. He's out of the league Um, I think this Houston offensive line is patch things up Yeah, it's a little scary betting on CJ Stroud I get it but going back to the trend of rookie head coach is being road favorites You know it not enough people are talking about Joe Brady. This is the first time he is He's uh Being the head coach of the game. That's a different thing and Jim Leonard who you made some good points

1:05:53I think uh, he will elevate the bills eventually defensively. I think he is a good defensive coordinator I could see them having some issues game one here against the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud He's dying to kind of get back right now. I get it. You're you're fading Josh Allen essentially on the money line He's been great in September 27 straight up, but the the Texans seemingly have had his number Um, a point for the bill CJ Stroud oh and six ats in his first two games of his season With Domingo Ryan's there, but Domingo Ryan's wins a lot of football games. I think he's a very good head coach I think the upgraded running game bills ranked 31st in run last year Is that going to be fixed right away? Maybe but maybe not maybe the fact that they have David Montgomery is enough to get them going and of course our buddy fair bearing Because of much already bragging about his over one and a half field goal props, which I'm sure we'll also be on But you ever you just have a rookie head coach on the road versus Domingo Ryan's who I think is a damn good head coach

1:06:54very seasoned guy And if CJ Stroud doesn't shit the bed which is certainly a possibility I think he got to take the Texans here What yeah, I mean I think I mean, do you know what Josh Allen's record is in Houston? I don't think I think he's like uh own two at least oh and four Wow Now some of those were the old Josh, but still I mean like that Thursday last two years so 2025 23 19 2024 23 20 Neither one of those Houston teams were particularly great I mean compared to what we're dealing with now it's it's been a constant churn at the offensive line They've had great defense and they've had some pieces and And I just look at the Joe Brady thing like I I get it you know you talk to uh Adam bills superfan and it's like you got to let Josh me Josh blah blah And sure I agree to some to some point but like I don't think the offense was the problem

1:07:55I don't think you needed more Joe Brady to unlock this bill's team and get him over the hump I mean I kind of have an I Yeah, I mean you DJ more versus uh Devon single Terry you like DJ more in that matchup. I don't I think That we are gonna get to see a very early season like oh Josh Like whoo Where he just he loses his mind a little bit and this will be a tight game But You take the points I guess Again, I'm not a huge Texans guy, but I but this is This is one you circle buffalo in Houston Josh Allen in this spot. Yeah, no need to do that Give me the Texans Kramer also on the Texans as the small home dog with level one and a half so I could tease it up to seven and a half There you go sharp I've heard some of our favorite gambling touts giving out that. Oh, I love that tease. That's a great tease Game number six in the early window bears Panthers speaking of the gambling radar

1:09:01Panthers are catching three points at home plus one 45 on the money line bears minus one 65 47 is the total By the way, I didn't even mention of a buffalo has a Thursday night game Look at that But in this one Chicago is 100% a team with red flags this week Whether it's Bet splits whether it's nobody's talking about Carolina at all. No I touched on this when we did the fast futures with you know, do we look at a bright young Team act stack for those have a small piece of that I mean On one hand, I love the Chicago team fully expect them to be in a situation where they should win this game But this this one is the fishy the fishy game of the week. This is just a classic again Everyone's gonna be on the bears road favorites I am I'm with you and thinking the bears are gonna have a good season But this is a classic trip up spot when do the panthers show up right they show up at home against good teams

1:10:05And I think this is the spot where they show up There 11 and 5 ats under canals is a home dog seven and eight straight up like they win some of these Bryce young 14 six and one ats is a home underdog in his career Like this is when the panthers show up and the panthers have some issues on the offensive line Does the Chicago bears have the past rush to exploit it? I don't know and look at the bear's secondary Kobe Bryant out for the season Kyler Gordon starting on pup jail and Johnson's banged up Defense in general could be a problem I think ten make milling could have a big game against his bears defense Chuba Hubbard Jonathan Brooks who Jonathan Brooks Already getting some nagging injury stuff Sounds like he's the maybe maybe Chubas back to Being hard to kill and starting and Jalen Phillips probably like an offseason signing that doesn't get talked about enough I think you could have a really good game. I understood by the Eagles didn't want to pay him Hey like long term he's had some health issues and it's scary given that guy a big contract

1:11:08But when he's out there he gets to the quarterback and we saw it in the preseason like Caleb As good as he is and his optimistic I am for him He struggles with some accuracy stuff. I could I could totally see this Panthers get out to a nice start bears come from behind and you know some sort of Caleb magic to get the win and not the cover so to me You got to take the Panthers as a home dog. This is when they thrive right I Yes But also I want to be buying Caleb in this team year year two. Yeah, that's a good point now maybe the bears offense is just dynamic and And roasting this Panthers team Panthers also that charlotte humidity heat that could be a little tough us spot for him I just want to drive through the wall. I'm gonna trust Ben Johnson. I don't really. Yeah, I'm gonna go against my instincts here I think you're on the right side

1:12:08I'm gonna be on the wrong side over here. So you're like Colby playing both sides. No not playing both sides at all I just don't want to I think if this is a shootout, I want to be on the bears And the total is sitting at 40 and you're the argument is well the defense for the bears is gonna be a problem So they're gonna have to play in all these shootouts. Yeah, it's why we like the Bryce Young team act stat stuff I still in that game environment That we're saying this is the upset game environment. I still like Caleb Williams and that side of it. So I will I'll be a donkey and lay the three Not my favorite though. Not my favorite of the week Speaking of one that maybe my favorite jets head to Tennessee. No, no, I'm just I'm just joshin Where the jets are a public side catching one and a half plus 105 on the money line minus 125 for the Titans 39 and a half is the total Words game of the week Oh, what did I tell you Sean that I needed to bet the jets before I left Vegas because it was two and a half and I did it right

1:13:10And I and what else did I say I thought this could end up being a game where the jets are road chalk Which I was supra I mean it's headed that way Now do you really want to lay points with Geno on the road? No Do you want to lay points with cam ward no at home? So you're really stuck between a rock and a hard place here I have a I would say a small opinion preseason that they think the jets will be better than people think And so if I think they're better than people think that involves them coming out and winning this game Period, I hate this game because there's no other way to look at both sides. You're gonna feel like a fucking idiot But all right, I took the jets. Oh, I took the Titans as a face degree the jets have a solid offensive line They might be able to just go out and run the ball down the times when the jets lose you'll feel done for back in the jets When when we lose it will be because Geno's throwing three picks and then I'll be like well at least I have Geno most

1:14:11Intercepts you want Geno last year at least I have Geno most interceptions 1350 on the season No, I mean to me it's as simple as the Titans shouldn't be a favorite that offensive line very suspect The jets have some players on defense. They're due to get a fucking interception Hopefully it happens because I'm gonna be on the jets here. I mean Robert Salis bad Aaron Glenn is bad Titans are one and eight ATS is a favorite over the last three seasons and you know, there's some of that obviously is not The quarterback and head coach over there, but I can't take ten to see his a favorite. I just can't how many games of the jets Have a quarterback advantage. I don't know if they do. I don't know I don't know. I don't have quite the love of Geno that you have, but I can't I can't watch cam Like people that are very kind Kurt Warner doesn't throw people through the mud And he's dragged cam ward and two and from When we did the Titans preview stuff I highlighted everyone was the people that are optimistic on the Titans are like oh he's gonna make it a year or two jump

1:15:15Dable's gonna help him But all the stuff that was bad with cam ward in last year we saw that in the preseason. So Sloppy sloppy footwork. Give me the jets false one and a half pre saw as a big game. He teased in this one I'm not teasing the jets. He's kidding me. I think Garrett Wilson's the guy that's gonna go off in this okay Geno's gonna have you thinking maybe you're wrong about him. He's uh, he's writing back. It's the sequel sequel of Geno writing back Okay Once again feeling sharp that I got this one right on the move hopefully it at the Kind of jets become a favorite you think Anything's possible in this game like because who wants to bet on this game? You're a maniac and I love it, but uh, I'm not touching it Saints Lions Speaking to which the lions have that same look ahead spot to the home opener and Buffalo Last game in the early window Saints catching seven plus two sixty on the money line minors real quick great nugget from the chat Jets have won an opener in 11 years. So they're two

1:16:19So they're two I like that angle and they haven't played cam ward in an opener in 11 years either Detroit minus 310 50 is the total. I'm guessing Sean as a shucklehead. You're gonna be on the Saints here catching the points Even though they've not exactly had a good Summer phase to their offseason program Okay That's fair, but I mean I look at the other side with the Detroit lines deal with offensive line injuries To me, I just look at that line secondary and I can't lay seven points with the defense I can't trust that has a Thursday night game against the bills right around the corner Now Campbell has been a good at s coach golf and season opener. She's been very strong But I just can't trust this defense and Yeah, you're going back underdogs a six and a half or more 53 and 30 ats week one I think there's something to that. I think Tyler Shuck happy to get some stuff in garbage time if Detroit's up 10 late

1:17:21Um, I think there's also a a world where Saints are live in this game I think Kellan Moore is a very good head coach and underrated and I think seven points is I think they're I think the Saints are a competent team I think seven points is way too many to give a competent team in week one Yeah, I think you're higher on the Saints and I think you're under rating Like this lines team Mr. playoffs this lines team has something to prove this isn't like a a Preennial this isn't like Buffalo coming into the start of a season. This is a team that very much has something to to prove and and they missed out on the playoffs because they they didn't take a couple games like this seriously Lot the Saints are missing some key pieces. Obviously we've heard all the Jordan Tyson talk but I think just in general You want to talk about offensive or defensive side of the ball They had they took some some nicks in the office season or in training camp and they don't exactly have the depth And so you're right about Detroit's secondary. Yeah

1:18:24I think a lava is going to have a big game. I think to one Johnson's going to be able to get his against his lines defense Yeah, and so back to that same kind of angle. I think the lions are going to be able to score against this Saint Defense. I don't I don't see a lot there And so if we're into a shootout Situation I think seven points is just too much. It's a good spread. It's a good number I love it in a teaser, but I'll lay the points with Detroit. Drew Petsing as their buddy Trevor in the chat reminds you He is the offensive coordinator. Give me the Saints Kramer on the Lions Yeah, no, I There's also been a lot of positivity, you know, we talked about the the Tyler Shuck season passing yards prop There's just there's optimism and baked into what Tyler Shuck is that you know, let's let's see that before we get a little too excited So this will be a good this will be a good test for him. Maybe they get in with garbage It sounds like you were kind of throwing it a little bit of a garbage time handicapped in there No, I think they're good garbage. I think they're I they're not going to go away easy in my mind

1:19:24Because I think they're going to be able to move the ball the entire game against the Lions And you're giving them an entire touchdown That to me is crazy. Okay. Yeah, we definitely disagree if you think they're going to be able to move the ball You don't you don't think they're going to be able to put a points against the Lions I don't think there are offenses going to be reliable enough to go up and down the field against anyone Well, that's because you don't like Tyler Shuck. Well, yeah, that's why and that's why we disagree I like Tyler Shuck. Lake is going to be able to throw that rock Late-win great footwork Tyler Shuck late-wendo four games Uh, all kicking at 125 p.m. On the left coast Arizona Taking on the chargers this will be the chalk and survivor as the charges are laying 10 minus 550 on the money line Plus 425 for the cardinals 47 is the total Error's Zona is actually getting bet we've seen a number come down from 11 and a half to 11

1:20:25To 10 and a half to now a flat 10 Sean I think there's plenty of people and when we see this all the time right that some of the early betters have turned into fantasy players and the cardinals are kind of a pretty rich fantasy environment You have you combo the idea that their defense may have some deficiencies With the fact that they have McBride and Michael Wilson and Maserati marm. Miata marve or whatever And Jacobi percent who has had some fun he had fun games last year And then you have Tyler Rouse years a pretty damn good running back in in Jeremiah love and there were one a 1b or maybe one and And loves the backup who knows but I mean, how do you feel about the cardinals as a team that's getting 81% of the handle on draft Kings on the green book right now That's certainly interesting. I mean 95% of the handle on Out at out at the circuit will be in a couple Days week one double digit favorites 7 and 14 ats now the counter is harbors been very good in

1:21:31Seas in opening games can you play the gong yeah, we're breaking news This is actually is side from gonna. I could look up the timestamp But since we were started recording. I think this is moved to eight and a half at the start It's still 10 in most places. Okay So we're gonna update it to eight and a half however you want to do that. Feel free I mean Question for you was gonna be like how do you feel about the cardinals knowing they're getting a lot of attention We always like to identify the public dog that has the fleas In some ways that this is becoming that it's also pushing people off of them in survivor People are circling the interior of that offensive line and saying this Or Nolan yeah, I could have a could blow up some of this charge but what at what point you go too far Yeah, we remember some of these fun games from percept but they were still losing those games by two touchdowns and this

1:22:31I expect This offense to come out and and be firing with In the combination of Adam Gase and Mike McDaniel's Doing his thing over there. I like the right. I like I'm or more in Hampton big time in this game I'm shocked to see this movement Sean. What do you want to pick it at? Oh, we can do eight now if I guess Um, I don't know. I was going back and forth this Uh, I'm kind of blown away to see this movement. It was 11 and a half a couple of weeks ago Well, we watch in the game with Decker Uh, it's to me. It's it to me. It's as much as um It's interesting to try and make a case for the cardinals. You're right like And they would get down and they would put up these garbage points But they would still get destroyed. I think I lost a bunch last year Uh, taking the cardinals as big dogs maybe getting a little cute I think the harbors stuff is stronger than the big dog stuff in this case And really it's just the cardinals defense. I don't know how they're going to slow down this chargers offense

1:23:33And it's a rare time where the chargers have the crowd at home So Yeah, it's it's and the fact that the public's on the cardinals makes me want to stay away So I'll I'll take the chargers lay in the eight and a half Anything under 10. I think you take the cardinals So yeah, I mean some some of these road games that we remember these high flying Games 37 to 20 that's a 17 point game 37 to 14 that's even more 40 to 20 Um, yeah, 44 22 So yeah, I mean, it's certainly they leave They are they can get blown out by like 20 plus because I I don't know how the defense is getting stops And at eight and a half boy do I love this in the teaser All right, so anything under 10. I would say take the chargers. Oh, so over 10 you're taking the cardinals I think that's the breaking point See I I was even getting the double digit dog thing is in my head Yeah, that's fine. I think that's what I think a lot of people are in that headspace

1:24:37Kramer so we're both on the chargers lay in the eight and a half also we're going to be watching games with Decker So I don't want to I don't want any negative Juju in the late slate here. Let's talk about our good buddies over an underdog get in on the underdog pick them Keep your million dollars you get a million dollars in bonus bets That's for existing users if you're already on underdog. I've been playing super fun And then a new customer's 50% deposit match in select states footballs back get in over on underdog Use a promo code SGP and Kramer. Let's put together a little uh NFL week one underdog entry So many props and we're going to be giving out a ton on the prop show Oh, these are player projections slightly different. Yeah, but what is a very different shown What do we just do a two uh to pick them here? What do you like? I was just double checking to see if I had any boost I think I'm boostless we used it on the uh Wednesday and Thursday prop show go uh go back and check that Do a tennis boost

1:25:38Okay, we're not we're not going to be giving out tennis on this show Just got about that All right, uh, let's see. What are we what have we talked about that we should maybe Do we want to well we could just start with the free square of fairbaring higher one and a half field goals That's fun or should we save that for the prop show no, let's give it out here as well I'm sure Lattie Daddy will co-sign it all right. I like to chase brown Lower rushing yards obviously I like K-Dotten, but I probably have enough of K-Dot and stuff Um, well all right Ted Mcmillan I think it's gonna be a big game. Let's go. Let's do a team-ac. Okay Ted Arrowa Mcmillan receiving yards 58 and a half against his Bears defense love that Okay, so we got two what else we what else do we like here? Let me catch up and put that in the bucket All right, so me and Milique was rushing yards. We haven't talked about the dolphins yet, but that is comically low What's the number? What would you say to that ride?

1:26:41You should probably be Somewhere between like 26 and a half and 32 and a half. Oh, wow. That's pretty high very low That's low for you. Yeah, he's gonna have like 60 yards. Okay. That's a pretty that's pretty respectful number Okay, what else do you like? Oh, let's see Can I can I interest you in a oh, they don't even have a Garrett Wilson 61 and a half receiving yards I guess Geno to get him the ball. Yeah, all right. Who else is getting the ball We can go receptions too if you want that's we'll go receiving yards. Be sure. Yeah Okay, so we got fair bearing higher one and a half vehicles. Okay J-Lex hunt I mean, maybe we save the eagle for the the prop show. Okay Say quant oh say quant parkly also on the you know, you're doing you're just going all the Eagles Well, I've thrown out a bunch and you're you seem skeptical. Let's what about DK Metcalf. I like him

1:27:46How do you want to play it or what do you like on Pittsburgh? I like DK Metcalf to get the end zone I also like his higher 48 and half receiving yards. Let's play the shears. Okay So DK Metcalf higher 48 and half receiving yards Garrett Wilson higher 61 and a half receiving yards Ted Mcmillan higher 58 and a half receiving yards and fair bearing to get two field goals Let's see $100 entry return you $90 Pretty nice. I'll take that Underdog promo code s GPN and we're also brought to you by our good buddies over on Calci Are you not trading on Calci? What are you waiting for available nationwide Trade $25 and get $25 love Calci great option if you're in a limited state To get in on the action trade away You got some lie. It's so fun to see the your graph kind of go up and down during the game You can trade out at market prices much better than a typical sports books cash out But trade $25 get $25 support us support the podcast and get a nice

1:28:50$25 in free trading Use that promo code SGPN downloaded today Calci promo code SGPN Three more to go in the late window you were just mentioning the leak was Miami dolphins on the road in Vegas catching three and a half plus 160 on the money line Minus 185 for the Raiders 40 and a half is the total I Assume you like the point oh fuck yeah, I like the points Malik will's gonna run all over that ass Okay, you have two rookie head coaches. I'll obviously Fade the guy who's the favorite here. Okay, Clint Kubiak Um, you're ever the Clint Kubiak offense game one did not get off to a great start last year Kirk cousins is a favorite at home 2335 and one at yes A boy action gentie dealing with an ankle injury. He's not a hundred percent that

1:29:53Malik willis read option with Devon Achan is just gonna smoke this Raiders defense I mean Caleb Douglas. I think it's gonna have a big game. You're very optimistic Yeah, I don't think the dog I think they have the better quarterback and I think If two rookie head coaches, I'll happily take the dog. I think Miami is a fast offense. That's gonna play well here In a dome and I'll happily fade Kirk cousins is a favorite. That's never been a profitable strategy taking Kirk cousins as a favorite Yeah, so dead cap doesn't matter to Malik wills run It's true. It's true, but it does matter to the offensive line and the depth around the defense and it It's not many times the season you're gonna see the Raiders Having advantages all over the field Max Crosby is going to eat we saw you brought up a joint practice nugget about the Patriots offensive line having massive struggles

1:30:54Well the dolphins defensive or offensive line is going to be but what's it what what can you not do in a joint practice? What's frowned upon? What do you mean what is like considered bush league in a joint practice? I Please tell me You can't hit the quarterback, right? So quarterbacks don't scramble in these joint practices. That's the difference in this matchup Malik Willis elevates shitty teams mobile quarterbacks elevate shitty teams. We've seen this through that the history of the national football league Yeah, I would say their offensive line was getting destroyed to the point where you couldn't even practice Yeah, that's that and that's a good sign for the Dolphins defensive line attempted spin What why is that good for the dolphins defensive line because they're dominating an offensive line For the giants defensive line Okay, the my point is bad offensive line can be aided by a mobile quarterback and guys like Devon Aachen get aided by a mobile quarterback

1:31:59The Raiders will not know how to play the read option that Miami's gonna run in this in this And you're gonna see Devon Aachen break free. You're gonna see Malik Willis break free from big yards. Yeah, I mean Okay, I love your confident. I don't know where your confidence is coming from I think this is gonna be one of the worst offensive lines in the league I think the offense will at times look uncertain like unworkable And I don't mind I think we were gonna see I mean max cross be coming great because a lot of people are gonna take the Raiders Yeah survivor and they're gonna lose I don't know if I would advise I mean there are other ways to play your first week of survivor I did see the projections have the Raiders between like seven and 10% Yeah, I'm all over the Raiders your confidence is gonna seem funny Hey, it's week one maybe I'm wrong, but I feel very good about this Miami Dolphins team Compared to the market and I don't think the Raiders are very good Yeah, and I'm happily gonna fade Kirk cousins as a favorite

1:33:03Yeah, I just never I just don't think we've seen Malik Willis under duress playing quarterback and you're you're making it seem like He's gonna be Michael Vick back there. I think I'm never gonna compare quarterback to Michael Vick But I think you're gonna see a very mobile Malik Willis that's gonna make the difference in this game Okay, I'll disagree and I think Yeah, well, that's why they play the games Kramer and I think you Kirk cousins will look just fine Even old-ass Kirk cousins will look just fine I'll happily fade Kirk cousins and a rookie head coach is a favorite yeah, give me the Miami Dolphins plus three and a half I think he'll execute that offense just fine. Yeah, everything will be just fine and Miami will be what much much Lower than just fine. So that's why you get to minus three and a shout out to Billy Ray Kyrus in the chat I'm a Dolphinsator, but Sean's making a lot of sense. This is what I worry about What do you mean? No one's taking the Dolphins. I know you're giving out crack On the air and people are gonna take it and then they're gonna get that get that get that light bulb ready

1:34:07Get those Get those little glass pipes. Yeah However you smoke that Dolphins crack right remember when I bet on the Miami Dolphins to beat the New England Patriots A five to one when I had no dollars to my name And I cash that and I was going nuts. It was me and it was coked out guy. Yeah At the you didn't know about the Wildcat though So I'm just saying my gut told me to bet on the Dolphins. You're calling it for the wild. Yeah It's gonna look like a wildcat type offense. All right, but that's not a new that's not like breaking the league because it's brand new Like it was back then. Are you calling the leak will us are running back? I think he's gonna run a ton of read options stuff with Devana chant that the Raiders are not gonna be prepared to defend What are they were gonna be preparing for them The only thing you know it's not on film so they can't prepare for it That's how it goes. That's why week one dogs are so good. Yeah, that's why there's upsets in week one if the Raiders are surprised by Malik Wallace's legs that's why that's why the Raiders beat the Patriots in week one because new head coaches are at a source

1:35:14Especially his favorites All right That one I'm gonna feel it's just gonna look so bad Philly Game three in the late window Washington Fitting that the commanders are playing the Eagles in the How many years anniversary of your you winning the million nine year anniversary and not only anniversary Not only is the It's a lot of similarities One the Eagles are playing the commanders although they were redskins at the time two was the points bread four and a half Um, that's interesting. It might have been Hmm. I think their Eagles were on the road. I don't even know if they were favorites honestly It was like no one saw the 2017 Eagles coming except me but The late game was the Sunday night game was giants versus the Cowboys Big star receiver for the giants where there was some Confusion as a weather night. He would play

1:36:15Um, and that game he didn't play obviously. We know Malik neighbors is going to play in this Sunday night game But in that game there was it seemed like it's not the opposite there was plenty of optimism that he was gonna play And he was a surprise. Oh, okay. Maybe I remember that differently But um, Odell was a late scratch as you recall and uh, I don't think you would Spectate him to not be plugged. No, it's a nice surprise because In the DK Millie maker. I'm sure plenty people had Odell Yeah, and you can't really swap out for a similar guy at that price point. Yeah, so But and it's a little different because we know neighbors is gonna be 100% Um, but yeah, we have here you go again with your slander. What do you mean? I was wrong. I hear it in your voice You're like my wife. I say I'm wrong and it's still not enough. I was wrong. You're right. Nope Neighbors are trying your you're trying to apply some sort of weird jinks Juju bullshit over there. What do you want me to apologize? I'm not asking you to apologize at all. No one wants your

1:37:20I said I was wrong. The listeners know you're wrong And they're gonna have the same feeling when they watch that dolphins team On Sunday and they're gonna make that show us wrong. There's room on dolphins out with the Malik No one's with me on dolphins. It's fine. I'll be on my island by myself Smoking crack smoking crack having a damn good time. Yeah, if you're on a deserted island having crack would be awesome I've never done crack. Well, I would assume that would be a great way to kill some time on a deserted. That'd be the optimal drug to have Um, I don't know you would want some mushrooms. You would want some crack or math at times like when you're really Up and build your raft and shit or if you got to get into the ocean and go hand-to-hand combat with a large Sea creature You probably want a little juice, right? Wasn't that with the the not I mean the Nazis were doing that at war Sure, the Russians were too. They were. I mean if you read about there's a book called blitzed about how they would just put They put these uh Germans these fucking Nazis and he's like one man subs and give them just like a bunch of methamphetamine

1:38:27They're like figuring it out. Yeah, which that sounded like Hell but fuck them they're Nazis Um, yeah, I'm a deserted island probably mushrooms would be the ideal But I can see some points where you'd want crack because you'd want a bunch of energy like if you're trying to catch a fish with your bare hands Being on crack might help you Yeah, also Fishing is like kind of a patient thing so you maybe want a little bit of a little bit of B Yeah, but if you're just like Go in ham if you plan on getting deserted on an island just bring all sorts of drugs see if there's any choices Kill some time Egos lay in four and a half minus two twenty five on the money line plus one ninety five for the redskins 44 and a half is the total I'll be completely honest on I I've been waiting for this point spread to get bigger I thought there was some five and a half and I And I can I can pull up the board to see what we got all over the place there are

1:39:28So yeah circus at four and a half green book and blue book are at five and a half I don't know what that tells you are are the are the quote unquote sharps playing Uh Possibly playing the commanders. I don't think so Uh, you also have places far away down here in the equator at four and a half as well So I would say the sharper books are at four and a half shone for what it's worth Okay Which seems crazy that the sharps could be coming in on the commanders redskins or football team based on what's happened this off season Yeah, I mean division dogs is is the case for the redskins I guess Um, maybe you're skeptical about the new look shone manion offense But to me it's again hurts and seriani five and oh straight up in openers um Eagles seven and two ats in the first three games of the season over the past three seasons This offensive line is healthy. They're very excited about the new look offense sake one barkly not coming off a Crazy season. I think he hits the ground running

1:40:31And I just look at this Eagles defensive line jalen Carter Jordan Davis. I keep talking about jalex hunt Um, how he's going to be uh set up for a really good year Against this redskins offensive line Again better day trench report. This is the biggest mismatch of the week identified by them And this is when hurts thrice 32 and seven straight up as a home favorite very good ats as well He's been great as a home favorite individual games 12 and one straight up 75 and one ats Dan Quinn two and six ats and season openers the redskins um new OC and new dc And the tonsil injury is huge. I mean you give this Eagles defensive line A below average offensive line to go up against and you have what I believe is possibly the best cornerback room in the league I just strut like What what matchups do you like the redskins in this game

1:41:31Again, it's the NFL anything can happen. It's a division dog week one those of the red flags But I think this is just a great opportunity for the Eagles to kind of put away some of the Noise of the offseason. I think a jalen hurts you listening to him He seems very focused as usual divante smith prime for a big game I read this nugget a little while back, but the look at the commander's cornerbacks for stool Douglas I mean, I'm surprised he's still in the league uh turn 31 last week on his four team since 2023 a meek Robinson allowed 807 yards and coverage last season Mike Sanra still allowed NFL high nine touchdowns in coverage last season I think gotter davante smith say come on barkley those are the three workhorses of the Eagles offense and The Eagles at home I mean everyone wants to cloud hurts and seriode but these guys win a bunch of fucking games so It's go birds for me locking up. Let's go

1:42:33So it seems like a short number. I think it's it's certainly got to be I mean what honestly like Obviously I'm biased, but what's the case for the redskins? I don't quite understand the case for maybe it's like a 24 20 game I mean Again, I'm biased towards the Eagles, but like what's it match up wise where are you like well? This is where they can get the better of Well, I think I think certainly the The biggest story of all of it If we think about it's probably the Eagles struggles on the offensive side like this idea that And now maybe the lot maybe the offense totally shits the bed, but like Schematically if it's a rough start I still think the bread and butter of just like handing out off to say one barkley hurts not turning now maybe hurts has these one of these crazy high turnover games And that's the difference, but hurts has been really good at protecting the football. So I would be surprised if this is a game where he

1:43:35um, you know turns it over a bunch and sake want very reliable And the offensive line is healthy I what I what am I missing? chat tell me I would I would have I would make this like six and a half Yeah, the reason it being I do think there's an advantage for the Eagles offense to where they don't have to be firing on all all cylinders And they might just be fine if the run game just lied on the defense and the run game if the run game is working and the play actions working Then I think it's likely that their offense will be fine enough in this game and I do think The Dan Quinn situation is clearly At minimum a little bit toxic and maybe all the way toxic and I mean, there's J Daniel situation. He's getting booed at college games when they put his name up on the billboard at ls. You I certainly The idea that there's this team isn't coming into the season like lockstep and the idea that the Eagles are

1:44:42Considering that there is a lot they are getting a lot of um, can the Eagles uh Get get it done. Can the Eagles win the Super Bowl this year kind of uh, lower third type treatment Which maybe it gives them an opportunity to put a little chip on their shoulder So I to me this is one we maybe we're talking about a safe sake one having a massive game in this one. Yeah could be could be Devanta is a good game Give me the Eagles minus four to have put to answer your question I I don't see the matchup the matchup involves you thinking that jane Daniels is gonna have this offense Scoring points against the Eagles defense and that's the part Forget about the I think the Eagles have a pretty heavy advantage where they won't they won't be tested enough on the offensive side I think this all comes down to what is jane Daniels going to be able to do in a new offense where Small sample size, but what have we seen him be

1:45:45Great for what 10 games Maybe less I'll fade them and again, I what what if this was seven points would you have any difference To me this is this should be seven points. Yeah, commanders are at home I keep saying this but the correct the commanders win total is the same as the time division dogs is the case for the redskins Maybe I'm just trying to tell you like that's the only thing I can grab jane Daniels is gonna be the pro if we're if we're off on jane Daniels That will be the problem. No, if jane Daniels just lights it up and we see jane Daniels rookie year The problem is the offensive line to skill guys around them and they're going up against a very good Eagles defense I mean prime jane Daniels got his fucking ass whooped at at the link two years ago. That was their best team Take him out I wonder if he gets hurt in the scheme. Well, I don't wish in drill. I'm not wishing. I'm wondering

1:46:46Blue 10 is serious. Uh, no, the blue 10 is non-serious breaking ribs is serious next up But Sean very pro blue 10 if you're checking back. I think it's very funny though. Sean very pro blue 10 He's he's pro all of it. He loves the stoppages needs more concussion checks packers Vikings Packers plus 105 plus one and a half 46 and a half is the total you said before the show That this one was uh creating Difficulty and your decision-making process and I said why Well for me it's I don't like the packers offensive line and that means a huge thing again. It's easy against his prime floor is defense But again division dogs now granted. This is a pretty small dog Matlow floor has gotten off to good starts in the season. He's been very good as an underdog He's been very good in September all the ATS stuff But the packers off match applies like packers offensive line

1:47:49There's some rankings that happen like 30 second So against a Brian floor is defense. It feels like they're gonna eat the problem is Kyler Murray is a favorite is not appetizing But I'm sure favorite at home in a dome with the with the you get the skull chunk going Yeah, I mean I think if they if the packers had Josh Jacobs you could talk me into it But like March on Lloyd is just he's a step down from Josh Jacobs and not having him out there I think is pretty big Vikings four and one The last five at home against the packers. Yeah, there's a little bit of a flow. I mean they figure out how to win games J.J. McCarthy against these teams And for as much as you Expect Kyler to suck There is a world where this is the best offensive coordinator Kyler has no now I'm not going down a Kyler might be good Never he's never thrown to Justin Jefferson Kevin O'Cottal does a good job with shitty quarterbacks. I mean In J.J. McCarthy was six and four as a starter. Is he still on the team? Yeah

1:48:53That's why he's got an ankle injury. That's why he's not playing That's amazing with the cuddling continues into year four Yeah, I to me it's a little bit of flow chart game a little bit of a to your point If the offensive line for the packers is gonna struggle early in the season You don't want to see a Brian Flores defense to get warmed up And I also kind of like you know, no like a Parsons. I kind of like the matchup There's events hasn't been good without Michael same thing I said about the the Eagles You know say what you still about say say what you will about Kyler But I kind of think the Vikings will be able to run the ball a little bit and if they can run the ball I have no doubt that O'Cottal will have the play action working and I think Kyler has been fine being that quarterback In his career at times and so yeah Packers will end up being a decent team this year, but I definitely like the Vikings in this one This is this is like a fringe

1:49:54Making my Circa million car really I think so well you really hate Jordan love. I'm not as down on love as you are But couldn't you see for us wrecking the game in this yeah, I mean last time they played it was 16 to three I mean Yeah, I don't know maybe I'm misguided no, I mean even even at home, but Yeah I mean it was he really owned them and I don't know if the offense has gotten better I yeah, just I know that was Clayton tune was in there to be fair. Yeah That's fine I didn't see that I was going I was debating if I was going to share Um Yeah, give us the Vikings lay in the one and a half I don't feel as strong as you do on this grammar Like because you don't think Kyler is going to be that good But even if Kyler's Kyler just has to be average in this game Because I and you saw who just signed today for the Vikings the hitman's back

1:50:58Yeah, so maybe he gives them a little juice there. Yeah I like the idea of a bad offensive line Failing the test against the Brian Flores defense to start the season Next up Sunday night football we made it We'll be at the circus somewhere watching this one Hey, yeah, also if you're on Vegas come say hi. We're going to be Thursday night hanging around the circuit watching the game Friday night We got a recent show seven to ten local Vegas time check that out youtube tv series xm channel 189 Uh, always fun. We do some bonus stuff there cj's on Uh, good times On the vsenshow if you haven't checked it out do and again if you're in Vegas for NFL Week one come say hi Sign up for the circuit contest still plenty of time. We still got our $50 off football contents.com promo good SGPN Body Maddie on the proxy Good time. So Yeah, and then I don't know we'll figure out what the plans are Saturday Sunday. Oh, he's hit us up at game on podcast on X

1:52:04Love meat you guys in person. I'm sure well some lighters and some gear to give out will be around. Yeah You can find us. We're in the streets. We're in the streets. How many other gambling content creators are like actually in these casinos placing bets probably not not a ton I'm there though. I'll also be at the slot machine and the craps table the slot. How's the cowboys on the road In the metal lands laying three minus 160 on the money line Giants plus 140 48 is the total Uh, lost their cowboys lose their Probo guard Yeah, that's huge Tyler Smith Now they also traded for a tackle A week before the season starts Not a good sign. They don't know their tackle rotation don't really love Tyler guide their love tackle going against Well, at least one of the things that objectively it's hard to argue that the giants Aren't good at is rushing the passer

1:53:07So yeah, I mean this comes down to if the cowboys can get the run game going I guess you can slow down the pass rush, but I've already seen it in my dreams of dual carder We'll have a big game in this one. There will be a strip sack potentially at a scoop and score Kramer as we know Dallas sucks, but Would are you concerned about the cornerbacks matching up against the cowboys receivers? Which one Deante banks against George Pagno Deante banks is a gaze of problem The fact that if denard Wilson has somehow turned around Deante banks That is sorcery I don't believe it I think our bet I think the best bet will be that um a Debo is serviceable and Newsom is fine if Deante banks is out there for long periods of time It's only a matter of time before he does something stupid He is not a smart player. I believe they could they've scheme they've figured out a way to get his his ass locked in

1:54:08I don't believe that he suddenly has become intelligent Now he's fast. He's got long arms. He's got all the things you want And maybe it's a confidence thing But We'll be terrifying if he's out there going against cd lamer towards pickens so Up shaw and promoted I see the chat and shaw and his minions in the chat promoting their love of the I didn't I wasn't even gonna mention the blue tent six and oh against the blue 10 if you want to bring up Jackson dark undefeated Can we get a prop? I mean at some point it's we have to stop. What are we doing This whole idea that now everyone is concerned about football players Fuck off Well, no, it's just it's just Jackson. That's why it's fun. That's what's funny Bo next throws his head into a defensive line and oh look at the heart there. Yeah, fuck off Yeah, get get rid of the blue tents. No one cares about the concussions. It's over As Cole we said no CTE here Yeah, and I I really think that the offensive line

1:55:12For the giants is gonna be a strength in this game and so I'm not sure what Malik neighbors is gonna do. Odell Beckham has a chance to you know Really reenact his one handed catch against the cowboys on Sunday night No boat trips planned in the offseason. He's humble. He's been a great leader in the locker room I just reached on James. Going back to yeah to uh, I forgot to mention two of us seemed in the Bahamas. Oh well Doing some karaoke. I know it didn't make anyone else's radar, but uh, I love how much two of loves not playing football He's really happy like he does love not playing football Yeah, giants home division dog sure, but um As giants back right there are some things that are a little concerning here, but I I the the past you worried about the the offense the cowboys being broken by this pass right? No, I think the the giants DeLion really needs to control the game because the back seven I Think could be an issue for them. I think the safety is well surprised you. Okay

1:56:13And I think I think one of the things that's gonna be very different is there there's a intent to what Denard Wilson's doing and you know Not quite in the same vein as wink, but you know the the goal is for the defense to control the offense Not just react to the offense and so Harba has been very good in season openers 12 and six ats And just the talk of the practice and everything else and and I'm excited to see the offense I think you know neighbors will be out there. I don't unlike you. I don't think he's going to be a hundred percent I think he'll be close to a hundred percent. I think we'll see the best of Isaiah likely Thank you for the games. I was way off Harba the ground running Harba again no one No, you can stop apologizing I think there was talk that Harba asked the scatiboo if he was ready for 20 carries So we could see a lot of that because he heard the k-adams interview where he said he was considering retirement Oh, I mean there you you you aren't gonna be able to slide anything between Harba and scatiboo. They love each other

1:57:14Harba loves a scatiboo scatiboo loves a harba. It's a great relationship Great relationship. Unfortunately, there'll be no trades for Christian Gonzalez as he signed with the patriots Yeah, I think I think the offensive line and the defensive line will be the story after this game A giants well, we'll say they win this one 27 to 19 2719 a lot of field goals a lot of field I Think cowboys kick a lot of I think they're gonna move the ball a little bit. They'll kick some field goes though Again, the secondary is not gonna be they don't need to be great on every play. They just need to get a couple turnovers Okay All right Kramer so we're both on the New York football giants is three-point home dogs Yeah, and if you're around the circle for this game just don't you don't need to come near me I'll be by myself. Who is the guy you gave a funeral to Mark Lewinsky

1:58:16He's not on this team. Okay They don't have that problem at guard the the the funeral will be at center if there is one John John Michael Schmitz but I trust that they they they cared about the run game this off season, which is new for them. So Excited to receive see what it produces Monday night The bow levers will be don't stop bow leaving We'll be in Kansas City where the chiefs are laying two and a half minus two 50 on the money line wow Denver plus 130 53 is the total It's pretty Pretty uh we we're almost at three here with this spread I'd imagine Yeah, I mean Patch my homes playing looks healthy Well, sorry likely to start I don't want to Anyory doesn't want to give anything away and not against his old pal Sean Payton

1:59:16Showtime my heart. I mean a lot of hype from you want to talk about teams with different You know a lot of uncertainty with the chiefs a lot of hype with the Broncos really I feel like it's uh You don't think There's a lot of positivity around Broncos line. I hear a lot of positivity about the chargers other team You know the chiefs you look at the demos not the favorite to win the division No, but I'm comparing these two teams only And I'm saying I the the uncertainty of the quarterback Versus you know, we got past that with the Broncos they bring in Jalen Waddle There's still a lot of confidence around the defense you have Sean Payton There's a lot of buzz about some of the young guys. I mean I'm blanking on the receiver pat What's his name Pat Bryant Pat Bryant. I mean they just seem that they're gonna have a deep ass receiver room They may have hit with Jonah Coleman a guy we liked in the draft process

2:00:17I mean to me the biggest thing that probably For some more listeners is not on their radar is Josh Simmons the left tackle the chiefs not gonna play And this fucking sneaky bastard. Well, and that was when we were talking with the Danny Solomon the sorry we love football podcast chiefs homer He was scared about this game and we had talked about you know part of his optimism was like oh, well But he was actually on the under because he had him like 10 and 7 yeah um, and you know the You can look at the trends are kind of bouncing out because underdogs that we want him on a football have been really good Any read historically has been good week one although didn't get the win against the chargers last year um I mean Andy Patrick my homes one eight and one ATS in his last 10 divisional starts that's kind of a red flag for me Um, but Sean Payton's also not he's historically started slow Uh, in these first two games three and twenty eight yes in weeks one and two a lot of that obviously was with the Saints

2:01:20But still worth mentioning so I think Are worth translating team to team sure but also you know the division stuff the Monday night stuff the mahogas against the division I think if you're looking at the trends you can make a good case both sides Um, certainly the chiefs of a chip on their shoulder but to me the handicap is a Not mobile Patrick mahogas or less mobile certainly against his Broncos defense with their left tackle out I cannot bet on the Kansas City chiefs As a favorite lane two and a half at home against a Broncos team that I really like I like their offensive line I think they're going to be able to run the ball a little bit against his chiefs team I think uh bonix is a solid quarterback I think giving them an extra guy like waddle is going to help them I think Sean Payton's a good head coach So and I'm optimistic about the Broncos in general. So I get it Um It's a red flag. I mean Ryan you like your gambling stuff Lane two and a half and a Monday night division game that is setting off all kinds of alarms

2:02:24And the Josh Simmons if I was on the fence It would be uh the Josh Simmons stuff would have been the uh difference for me Um Yeah So I definitely would love to see the Broncos lose this game Mm-hmm Certainly it would be it would be great I get that nice oh and five sweat they have to lose the first one to have that but Since since I locked that bet up and For a number of other reasons Even if they come out and debut the Like I Speculated they might they debut something that looks a lot more like a running power running offense. That was kind of reliant on Uh Josh Simmons being on the offensive line. Yeah, I mean if the player is like hey pound the rock with Kenneth Walker Which could have some success not having your left tackle is huge. It is one of the things As far as like stuff that I've done well in in the in the NFL through the history of our

2:03:2915 years and happy 15 year anniversary Ryan. Oh, thank you. Notice you didn't get me anything 15 years, huh? 15 years picking every end of the game against the spread smash that subscribe button um Yeah Well the left tackle being out. It feels like it's not factored into this line. I'm taking crazy pills This is actually our 16th year We started in 2011. I'm saying we're starting our 16th year. Oh, okay. Well, it's scratch that yeah I'm just saying it's an extra year trying to cut us short Uh, yeah, so circling all the way back around this this is one where uh You know, we we do our way too early And I flipped around on a couple of the games. Hmm interesting What me flipping around no, I'm just it's interesting what we liked way too early and what we like now So the games I flipped around on um Saints plus seven and a half flipped around on that and I was on the cardinals originally flipping around on that um

2:04:30Chiefs for another one. I it's hard to stay on the chiefs at this point I think I have to take the points you can say dominance and arrowhead well the last two years they did not cover this number and I do think there has been a lot extracted from the story of the chiefs last year and you know blame removed from Patrick Mahomes He got hurt at the end of the year Six and eight and he's gonna be limited we don't think I don't think there's gonna be much of a vertical passing game So how does this work? What is a defense like Denver able to do to them? A very concerning matchup to me again, I a little bit of a I guess a hedge with the oh and five Broncos start not really But I'm 24 23 here fine, right What's that no if the chiefs win 24 23. Oh, you just take the two and yeah take the two and a half put it and put it in teaser I can't see the chiefs being an explosive offense that another another point total under I loved for a season point

2:05:30Total And so yeah, I'll I'll flip my pick around on them too. Give me the Broncos plus the two and a half love it and a teaser Sean Let's go Broncos plus two and a half All right time Ryan time for everyone's favorite part of the show the lock dog And the tease of course is Ryan You were doing an impression of Marilyn Monroe singing happy birthday to John F. Kennedy's that what I was doing Yes, because we were discussing hey, we need a soundtrack for the tease. What is like a teasedy thing and you go Oh, it's like Marilyn Monroe and she was singing to JFK so a little background. I mean everyone knows that Everyone knows that Lockdog and teased party about your good buddies over at Novig again trade over on Novig deposit 10 bucks Love using this in the great state of California Shout out to Novig deposit 10 bucks. He had $25 in trade credits Available nation-wide use a promo code SGPN so you get that nice bonus

2:06:32And so you got access to Novig again if you haven't Maybe you're in a state where they didn't have no big they brought it back perfect time to hop in great prices I mean, Kramer you're doing a little grocery shopping of some of the sides and totals and props we liked And I think even you were surprised some of the great numbers over on Novig's Use that promo code s g p n Okay, Kramer Do you want to go first or should I go for you first? Okay lack number one Give me the Pittsburgh sealers minus Hello Dark then see that coming give me the Miami dolphins. Oh on the money line fins up dear What is the I'm just confer a plus 160 against the Raiders? I've talked too much about the dolphins I gotta own it if it doesn't come home. I'll own it. I'll say my bad But I'm optimistic about this dolphins team especially against the Raiders

2:07:35uh my tease interesting tease week Let's start with the Broncos up to eight and a half great teasing opportunity Chargers down to two and a half excellent tease. Thank you. Excellent. T's shock the circus not protecting themselves against that On last tease Let's see I'll go with the uh on good options. Lot of good options. Any anapolis coats up to nine and a half. Whoa for my other lock Give me the Tampa Bay box plus three and a half love them and for my bonus locks Let's fucking go Eagles fly Eagles fly at home against the commander Redskin football team It's gonna be a dominating performance. Give me the Eagles laying four and a half Kramer All right, so saints are close. Okay And probably we'll be betting on the Saints obviously. I do like them Uh, but yeah, I mean feel pretty good about that slate

2:08:40Kramer what do you got anything else before I uh care? Highway Lock number one Give me the Colts plus the three and a half. Ooh, okay Oh I like this. Going a little out of order Uh Ooh you might get a little mad at me, but give me the New York Jets on the money line Buh What is that money line plus 105? Good just barely. That's how you do it Lock number or no tease Let's go Jags minus two and a half Sure, that's fine. Chargers minus two and a half And lions minus one Danger by the donkey sound effect It's just a good teams to cover by lips. It's that's a four my second lock Give me the Raiders laying the three and a half although I should remind you I have three in pocket as well We got all sorts of so what Raiders win and don't cover

2:09:43Uh, it seems like we're setting that up And then for my bonus lock I I I'm pretty sure I'm pretty sure Minnesota's gonna be on my card. Give me the Vikings like okay All right, so uh, circa million five picks Okay, what are some uh, whatever our five consensus plays I'm assuming we don't want the wins there Thursday I mean, I don't mind Seattle, but I'd be fine playing Seattle and the Niners if you want to get spicy Yeah If you want to just pass those I mean the nine or I feel better about the Seattle than I do about the Niners Okay, but I'm also fine pushing it. Let's let's not play those though I mean, we might not get a three and a half we might not have a three in the contest Per Seattle. Yeah So we both like I'll Seattle San Francisco the bucks the cults

2:10:47Well, let's let's let's do Tampa Bay plus three and a half Indie plus three and a half both locks that we agree on okay But none of us we we didn't we agree on Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Houston Carolina jets we have a lot of agreement chargers eagles Vikings giants broncos Okay, so let's go Pittsburgh minus three and a half Okay Then you want to put Minnesota in there you like that I'm good with that Last but not least I would say eagles. I'm also fine with one of our other consensus plays Well for Want to go off do we want to play Houston? Yeah, why not? When we none of us we didn't lock it up collectively Yeah, I mean you're going against y'all and Ed essentially pick them But I love I do love the matchup so Would you rather yeah, I guess um

2:11:51Yeah, let's just do that Houston Yeah, let's put Houston in there. Okay So we got the circa million card box plus three and a half Indie plus three and a half Steelers minus three and a half Vikings minus one and a half and Houston plus one I like this it will be we're not playing any of the big spreads which I I think is a good strategy Yeah, uh circuit survivor our first entry We mapped it out we took the chargers Yes now for our second entry what do we do here? Are we getting cute I mean cute being are we playing a short Are we playing someone like Pittsburgh? I like Pittsburgh I mean to us growing us in back-to-back week one survivors would be comical So there's a certain there's a certain funniness to it option one we play chargers twice Yeah, I don't know

2:12:52I mean that's fine likely that we would want to play the chargers in the first couple weeks When is another good charger spot They play the Raiders week too yeah Um Yeah, I don't We can save them I I'm fine if we want to diversify your jacks Ryan what else are we going to play the jacks We I think one was a week seven at home against the Titans or something No week two Week two they play Clea No, I'm not week two at Denver. No, it's the you're right. It's at the end of the season they play Is it Tennessee? Yeah, they have Tennessee at home week 12 That would be a play they also have Washington at home week 17 So not a ton of opportunities. I mean the the jacks did did It makes sense other than the weird trend that

2:13:54Somehow to Sean Watson has never lost in them So I mean, I don't like what would be the the cute angle Other than Pittsburgh Um, I could use the Eagles it's a division game When did they have no future value? No, there's a bunch of other spots we could play okay So we could just use Seattle and say fuck it um Well then we get bye back in to me. It's either Steelers or jacks That's where I'm at I'm both Steelers when else are we going to use them They have some future value sure But I think it's Steelers or jacks for me Steelers would put us in a different pile But we're not really rooting for the main pile to get poached because we're taking the main pile The jags yeah, I guess

2:14:54I guess I would probably say the jags are slightly uh Oh They both have Future spots that are similar to me And so I guess we Pittsburgh makes us more different because Pittsburgh also has week 16 Caroline at home For example, okay Just something to know So Steelers I'm fine if we want to be different that would be the way to be different one different one chalky I like that and let me just let me just verify this with Pittsburgh so that there's no obvious spot that we would really like um Yeah No, I think uh I think we do it would be a Cleveland spot or it would be that Caroline is spot at the end of the year And that week has some other games we could play so in fact one of those is the chargers at Miami Where they'll be laying a touchdown. I'm sure you'll love that spot So yeah, let's do that Pittsburgh

2:15:55Steelers and chargers are survivor entries for our circa million bucks plus three and a half Colts plus three and a half Steelers minus three and a half Vikings minus one and a half in Houston plus one Let's go football week one ready to go We're doing a live prop show with CJ leading up to the opening kick tomorrow talking about our favorite props for NFL We got our show live at the circa seven o'clock Pacific YouTube TV series xm Channel 189 get in on the free roll football contest sports gimme a pack S.com such free roll Very easy to get in if you have any issues with the link We'll send out an email to everyone who's signed up to get in shouldn't be an issue Answered all your questions and comments on Spotify Comment on Spotify what your luck is for NFO week one love hearing from you guys and gals And of course as always you can't you can't let you off the hook you said you identified

2:16:55Three leg round rock god you're right round robin Jesus christ shan round robin moneyline parlay for me bucks Yes dolphins and saints I will be playing that as a moneyline round robin dog You want to give one out right? I was just I was looking through and I realized you had a credit The the intelligence side of taking carolina when I took the bears Um Let's see yeah round robin I'm probably I think maybe we just Let's see here Colts With Yeah, so I'm gonna have I'm gonna have a colts bucks Niners And then I'll likely also have a colts Texans Giants Okay, there you go couple round robin moneyline parlay

2:17:57And of course, no, I'm sorry that we got the jets in there too, so take the giants out put the jets in We don't need I we don't need to add any stress to them Okay, here you go. There you go and of course as always footballs back baby for participating in the sports game in pakis Full sports game on pakis. I'm Sean second money greenies Ryan best of luck Cramer let it Hey What type of friends says gamblestos in your opinion open you know Hey Bro, I just I never lose I just push Barla's Jesus I just been heavy as fuck on this money line. I'm fed got my cigars my booze and a bag of pedables

2:18:58We the real men of teaching this is how we grow It's time for some football good. You like it shit. I like them all what type of friends says Gamal is a senior if you know fan you know Hey, he's time for some football some control bro. I just I can't just city minus 10 shit. I never lose I just push or win Score is tied and stinks as high house my prediction. It can't be denied Hoping that this game don't slip away because this could be my fucking lucky day Hey, he's time for some football. Who do you like it shit? I like them all What type of friends says gamblestos in your opinion open you know When hey, he's Jens it's time for some football some control bro. I just On the Houston Texans minus 10 do not never lose I just push or win Only tell the wife when I have a big wean but feels like they can feel or in far Or even between me while I love the packers to win. Now right plus I'm triple stacked with them in the millie maker tonight

2:20:03Hey, he's time for some football. Who do you like it shit? I like them all What type of friends says gambling is a senior if you know fan you know when hey, he's time for some football some control bro I just built all the checks and build plus 10 shit. I never lose I either push or win Hey, Sean. I'm yes Ryan fly Eagles fly. I'm Ryan dude. Wow. You're so sweet. I really appreciate that It's gonna be a great season for my Eagles and hey just for that. I'll give you a bang or giants drop Now how does that sound? No way here we go Cheat man the giants are a great football team and I have a weird crush on the head coach. I mean he dropped all that way right come dying I know oh here comes Decker hey Kids I just have one thing to say to you. What's that deck San Diego supercharger's charge Well, they not an SD anymore. How many times do I have to tell you that isn't disgusting at

2:21:03Hey, you guys want a toe out about disgusting? I know how about my pants here we go. Maybe freaking wheel man Shut it capper you like that careful of what Up on the nerves Hey, you know, it's GPN for life as GP Receivo You