
Nu Way 225 Betting Picks 2026 I NASCAR Gambling Podcast (Ep. 865)
About this episode
Sports Gambling Podcast Network is made possible by:
Welcome to another episode of the NASCAR Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network! Four days a week, Rod Villagomez and Cody Zeeb bring their love of NASCAR and their love of sports betting to you to help you set your bets for the weekend of NASCAR action. From the Craftsman Truck Series to the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series, to the Cup Series, Rod and Cody have you covered.
Today, Rod and Cody give you their favorite Nu Way 225 Betting Picks 2026 from the World Wide Technology Raceway in Madison, Illinois. What can we expect from Brandon Jones this week? Is it safe to assume Corey Day can put together a solid run for a second straight week? Can Taylor Gray grab back some of his lost previous form and grab another Top 10 finish? How will Rajah Caruth stack up against his Sammy Smith this week? Will Ryan Sieg shock the world and grab his third career win at Darlington? Which driver is Cody counting on to get him to the top of this car lift? We'll answer these questions and more on this week's episode.
Be sure to subscribe to the NASCAR Gambling Podcast on the SGPN App, and on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Find Rod (@rjvillagomez) and Cody (@Husker_Zeeb) on Twitter. Introduction Musical Credit: "I Run" by Iconoclast
00:00 Show Intro and Sponsors
02:03 Race Setup at Gateway
03:58 Handicapping the Chase Field
07:18 Chat and Bristol Schedule Talk
08:57 Quick News and Documentary
10:55 Race Details and Entries
14:52 Football Talk and Back to Bets
15:39 Head to Head Caruth vs Smith
24:00 Top Five Picks
28:40 Upset Pick Jones vs Love
29:41 Jones vs Love Debate
30:30 Brandon Jones Trajectory
32:44 JGR Volatility Talk
33:59 Sawalich, Corey Day Beef
37:01 Retzlaff, Clements Top 10s
40:59 Taylor Gray, Dean Thompson
44:57 Corey Day Top Five Case
47:07 Sheldon Creed Car Lift
50:58 Kvapil, Crews Outrights
58:17 Bet Card Recap
01:00:21 Wrap Up And Sign Off
Exclusive SGPN Bonuses And Links
https://sg.pn/links
Watch The Sports Gambling Podcast
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/sportsgamblingpodcast
Follow The Sports Gambling Podcast
X/Twitter - https://x.com/GamblingPodcast
Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/sportsgamblingpodcast
TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@gamblingpodcast
Facebook - http://www.facebook.com/sportsgamblingpodcast
Follow The Sports Gambling Podcast Hosts
Sean Green - http://www.twitter.com/seantgreen
Ryan Kramer - http://www.twitter.com/kramercentric
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA)
21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800 BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI)
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Legal Disclaimer: DISCLAIMER: Deposits to EDGE Boost are eligible for FDIC and/or NCUA deposit
insurance up to $10,000,000 or more through Cross River Bank, Member FDIC, and Participating
Institutions. Learn more about IntraFi® Network Deposits℠ and the network banks eligible to receive your
funds. The EDGE Boost Visa® Debit Card is issued by Cross River Bank pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. EDGE is not a bank and is not FDIC-insured. The $100 deposit match is a promotional credit issued by Edge Markets; match funds are no-withdrawable, have no cash value, and expire 60 days after issuance. Real-time transfers available for eligible account tiers; new accounts are subject to initial hold periods. See Terms of Service and Cardholder 21+. Agreement at EdgeBoost.io
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Get every episode summarized
Each time Sports Gambling Podcast Network publishes, we email you a written briefing from the transcript — the topics, who appeared, and any specific claims, with the ad reads skipped.
Email me new episodesFree for 3 shows. No card needed.
Hosts & guests
Transcript ready
600 searchable segments. Every word is indexed and playable.
Full transcript
Sports Gambling Podcast Network — Nu Way 225 Betting Picks 2026 I NASCAR Gambling Podcast (Ep. 865). Machine-transcribed; use the interactive transcript above to jump the player to any line.
This new way to 25 betting picks 2026 edition of the NASCAR gambling podcast here on the sports gambling podcast network is brought to by the free roll football contest $3,000 up for grabs enter today at sportsglypodcast.com slash free roll. I just got three things to say God bless our troops God bless America and gentlemen Yea kid! Strap in and pull those belts up tight as the sports gambling podcast network presents The NASCAR gambling podcast I'm getting my foot in the floor and I'm not listening with all the news and the best bets for your NASCAR weekend.
We want to thank you tonight for these mighty machines that you brought before. Thank you for the dodges and the toy odors. Thank you for the forwards. Lord, I want to thank you for my smoking hard life tonight, Lisa. In Jesus' name, buggin' it, buggin' it, buggin' it, buggin' it. Now here are your hosts, Rod Villagomas and Cody Zebe. Welcome into another episode of the NASCAR Family Podcast. Here on the Sports Family Podcast, now we're keys. Cody Zebe, I'm Rod Villagomas. And today we are here to talk about the O'Reilly Auto Parts series race at the worldwide technology racing center of Illinois, but St. Louis under the arches of Madison, Illinois. Oh my God, Cody, I'm so confused today. Rod, maybe by the end of the week, Rod will figure it out. It's just so many, and then look at the name of the race, the new way 225 powered by Bobcat, sauceed by Bluehog.
Like, how many word salads are we going to have to endure this weekend? The more sponsors that win a pay for it, the better. I can't. So, you know, you've got to do what you've got to do. You put broadcasters like me and a predicament where I'm trying to get things from you. I'm trying to get things right, but I also remember that I'm about as smart as a fifth grader. So, trying to get it all into my head is just, you know, neither here nor there. But I do know that it's Wednesday, and I do know that we are talking O'Reilly Auto Parts series. And only the second race here since the 2010 season for the O'Reilly Auto Parts series. This is not a race track that a lot of these guys have been on. In fact, a lot of these guys are being on it for the first time. So, handicapping this Cody, and the books will attest, obviously, because they played a little tight to the Vest too, was a little rough. Yeah, I definitely like this week better than last week, which I don't know. I didn't like last week's layout, and yet we had a good weekend. So, I don't know how to feel about that, I guess. But I did like this better.
It was a lot easier for me to find picks. I didn't feel like I had to force stuff as much. But it's not a lot of like juicy stuff, I guess, if you will. It's a lot of real basics, except we've got a couple of, you know, simple top five, top 10 bets. Nothing really far crazy out there that they're really popped off to you. We only got one race to look at here. There was a 11 car wreck in that race. Took out some of the big hitters like Justin Algeier and that. This was the regular season finale race last year. Of course, it's now in the chase this year. And like you said, first time they'd been here since 2010. So, yeah, the Justin Algeier is the world had been here before. But the other guys hadn't so. Yeah, but a Riley, we tend to lean on what have you done for me lately. And well, that's what I'm doing. Well, yeah. And again, if you looked at last week, the first race of the chase, it definitely was a very chalky albeit there was a couple of instances where we got prey dogs poking out their head. But for the most part, the top spots were occupied by the folks that we thought were going to be occupied.
The Algeirs, the quapples of the world and all these guys and the creeds of the world too. So obviously, we'll be talking a lot about those guys going forward too. I mean, this is the part of the season now, especially with this chase, that these betting cards are going to look quite similar week after week after week. Yeah. That's the other thing too is like now the cup guys are out, right? So we don't have that factoring in and changing things. We're not worried about that. We've got a big enough sample where 20 some races into the season now where we know what's going on. We know who has what. We know who the true contenders are. We know who can jump up and spoil the party certainly, but it is kind of to the point. And even so in the cup series, you start, you'll start to see that more. We talked about in the recap episode this week, right? Where you look at the top 10 and it's chase guy, chase guy, chase guy, chase guy, one random, not chase guy, chase guy, chase guy, like, because that's just how it kind of works when you get into this time of year. So does make the handicapping more difficult in some ways, but also easier in others.
We know these are the guys who are going to be there, right? So just depends how you look at it and you know, got to stay fluid with it. And you know, we always give you our picks, but also keep in mind too that any combination of a lot of these different bets that you want to put out there. Obviously, the guys we're going to talk about. If we're, if we're giving them a top three, then obviously top five is a good bet in our, in our opinion, too, depending on whatever number you feel comfortable with. Top 10 kind of the same thing. If you can find something that you can stomach or whatever on Calci, like just know that when we're talking about these guys, it's, we give you our favorite parts of the bet. But of course, it's just open to your own interpretation, too. You don't have to go exactly the way we tell you, but yeah, that's the way it is. Well, and it every, you know, different people have different options depending on what state or country or book you have available to you and things change, right? Maybe today it's one number tomorrow. It gets better or in two days, it gets worse and you know, after qualifying and changes. That's just, that's how it goes. So that's what we do. It is indeed. You know what doesn't change is the SGP ends free roll football contest.
It is back. You could pick every game against the spread for a chance to win up to $4,000 enter today. Sportscomanypodcast.com slash free roll. And of course, we continue to give back the SGP end giving back. We're continuing to helping the ongoing effort to rebuild out there in Columbia. If you can and you should go to sportscomanypodcast.com slash relief, anything helps. Anything at all helps. And you can help today by going to sportscomanypodcast.com slash relief. All right, Cody, we talked a lot about some of the silly season news in the Cup series. But let's check in with a chat real quick. Andrew saying how do you, how do Andrew, Steve and checking in saying good to see you saying hello. Pray for his job. Bristol Motorsports on on Tuesday, Bristol Motorspeedway, your job. Oh, well, either he's not going to be at his job. So that's why we need a pray for him. Maybe he's working with the track. I don't know. He's headed your head of their Tuesday. He's getting there easy.
Make sure he gets a full week in experience. I do think do we have is a cup race? I don't know. That's next week. I haven't got that far. I think it's. I don't think it's a Saturday night race. Is it? We might have. No, I think it's a Sunday race. I think you're right. That's okay. It's not Saturday. It's not Saturday. It is Saturday. It is Saturday. So we might have. So we're the trucks Thursday. Yeah. So we got trucks Thursday, O'Reilly Friday, Cup Saturday. So yeah, that's a. Yeah, my change our schedule next week. I don't want to look into it. They have to. Yeah, it's going to say on Thursday. Gotta get that in on Wednesday. Depending on, yeah, depending on when we get the odds. So stay fluid. But yeah, I forgot that. Yeah, I forgot that they do that Saturday. So there we go. Andrew also saying Marcus must have celebrated too hard to not be the first comment. Yeah. Well, yeah, everybody go check on Marcus. Let's make sure that that 21st birthday. If he's still awake from that. There you go. Oh, Steven's going to try and get a job there. Still in high school. There you go, Steven.
Congratulations. Or good luck. Something like that. Yeah. Good luck. I guess. Yeah. We will. Yeah. There you go. So. Yeah. All right. Rod. Well, yeah. Like you mentioned, we can. We talked about the Josh Barry News yesterday. I did see Caden Quaupal is set to make his NASCAR truck series debut in the at Bristol next week in the 76 car for. FRE. There we go. Freedom racing. But yeah. So if you don't know who he is, the younger brother of Carson, Quaupal, of course. And if you're a longtime NASCAR fan, their dad Travis, the former truck series champion, I believe. And then was in the Cup series with Penske for a bit as well. So racing family and Caden, just as good of a prospect as Carson is. A little bit younger, but good to see him, you know, finally getting that first start. And we'll see where that takes him outside of that, though. Been a little off the radar today. But I don't think I saw any other real news stories. So that's kind of where we're out.
Yep, nothing break for me. Although I am watching that NASCAR Americana documentary. And I'm about to get to the family episode. So that one should be an interesting one. So I watched the first episode, but the other ones are still sitting on my DVR. I need to get around to that. But the first episode of was really great. So, yeah, I absolutely love that. Yep. That family episode. The second one. So we're right there with each other. We haven't seen it yet. But nice. We're on the same. We're on the same level. We don't even know it. How does that not surprise me at all? That yeah, that's not shocking. But I will say, Rod, we might be on the same level there. We're not on the same level when it comes to at least one pick in particular this evening, which I love because the O'Reilly show has always been where we've had our biggest disagreements well until you became such a avid hater of Carson. I know, host of our, but I do like getting back to disagreeing on bets in the O'Reilly series. Like like the good old days on NASCAR game will podcast. It was, you know, we throwback episode. We had to do it. It was this is our throwback. But anyways, let's get to that. So it is the new way to 25,
sauce by blue hog powered by Bobcat. We are set for 160 laps around this 1.2 5 0 mile paved track for 200 miles around the worldwide technology racing at gateway in Madison, Illinois. And yet everyone's going to call it St. Louis all day long. But yeah, that's what we're set at. Yeah, that's what we're set at. Nothing crazy on the entry list. There's 36 entries for 38 spots. So everybody will make this race. The only notable entries Jordan Anderson is back in the 32 for Jordan Anderson racing. And then Austin J Hill is running again in this race. He'll be in the 53. Just keep that in mind when you're looking at odds or you're playing DFS. Austin J Hill is not Austin Hill in the 21 cars. So when you're like, Oh, this Austin Hill 200 to one win the race. Like no, not that Austin Hill, different Austin Hill. So, you know, just pay attention to that. But outside of that, you know, Bob didn't do his normal notable entries. And I think that's because there is none. So I don't see looking up and down this list. I don't see anything crazy. But again,
we're kind of to that time of year where the craziness, you know, evens out a little bit. Yeah, Austin J Hill is the one with the handlebar mustache and the just villainous look on his face. That's Austin J Hill. So everybody, don't get that. He's the one you would have expected to get in when Austin Hill got suspended from a race last year. Like, oh, all of a sudden, Austin J Hill's here to race. Oh, okay. Don't have to change the name on the side of the car. Right. And it kind of makes perfect financial sense. Yeah. All right. Well, we got bets to get to for this. Austin J Hill. Not nearly as good as Austin Hill. So keep that in mind. Well, some can argue, but we got bets to lay out. And let's get to those bets on the other end of this. Let's tell you about first our friends over at Edgeboost. We're brought to you by Edgeboost. The Visa debit card built for online gambling. Earn up to 0.5% cash back on eligible gaming spends zero dollars in deposit fees. Zero dollar deposit fees plus instant 24 7 365 access to deposits that clear in minutes. There's no maintenance charges minimum balance or hidden costs.
And if you've ever had trouble depositing or withdrawing on an online gambling site, you need the edge boost card. Sign up for edge boost today at edgeboost.io and use promo code SGPN to claim your exclusive offer of a $100 deposit match. Simply sign up deposit $100 and let's support know that SGPN sent you. They'll match the $100. That's edgeboost.io promo code SGPN for a one time $100 deposit match. We're also brought to you by Clutch Parallays. Clutch Parallays has you covered with data backed predictions. The predictions are updated live during the games, which means you're going to get updated odds to every pitch, basket and possession. Plus a highlight. The best sports book to place their highest edge place. Compete against one another is in weekly monthly and all time profit leaderboards, but more importantly, folks, Clutch Parallays super simple and clean to use with a beautiful dashboard to look at Clutch Parallays. The one stop shop for research and plus EV opportunities. How about the game tomorrow night, these San Francisco 49ers taking on the Los Angeles Rams down in Australia, looking at one of their hot props.
The best prop line right now. They're telling me Brock Perdi's under a half of an interception is the best way to go on this one plus 120. You're getting plus 23.6% or cents better rather than you are expected to. So that makes it a damn good prop and plus proc party. Gotta protect the ball. Not going to throw in interceptions. So plus 120 for Brock Perdi under a half an interception is away. Clutch Parallays is leaning. Let's make sure you get set up over there right now. promo code SGPN. The NFL is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with our 32 NFL team previews and of course your chance to win $8,000 NFL future with the the one thing Brock does very well and that is protect the ball. So go Brock Perdi. There you go. Awful balls back. I'm so excited. Patriots played a night looking forward to that. They are going to defeat the Seattle see hooks and have the best record in the NFL after tonight's game around.
So maybe your team will be able to join on tomorrow. I would like nothing more than both of our teams to start out undefeated. So speaking of saying hello to folks in other countries. Hi, Jimmy. Jimmy is chickening from Greece. Really like Jesse love for a top five finish at plus 100 this weekend. We'll have something to talk about him here in a little bit. Yeah, we will. Well, Rod. Tell me you to the bets and I was going to I was going to give you the offer. If you would like to go first today. I don't know if you notice I did switch your bets around in the boxes there to make things line up a little better. But if you'd like to go first, I would love to leave the floor to you. Okay, well, fine that I will go first because in my first box was a bet that I already had in the dock and apparently Cody would like to go against me on this one, which is again shades of old school NASCAR gambling podcast. But I had Rajah Karuth in a matchup against Sammy Smith. I will take Rajah Karuth over Sammy Smith. This is minus 110 over on the draft Kings sports book and look, I get it because Sammy Smith is actually not been all that bad here on this particular track.
But my whole thing is this right. So Rajah Karuth is been on a decent run as of late. And last week all things considered still was a decent enough run considering the fact that he had every double-munder the sun before the race even fully got started. So he qualified ninth, which has shows he's got speed in that JRM car and at 26. Unfortunately, that was bad luck for him. Daytona started on the pole. Wendup 30 second. That's some bad luck too. But an Iowa held on to the luck and finished in second place after starting in fourth. Any apples was not a good run for him. Unfortunately, but Atlanta started eighth and finished in ninth. So since Atlanta has been a very and which is why he earned his way into the chase anyways at the end of that was just because you know he was continuing to be a good solid driver. And I feel like they can stack more on to that particular momentum and get him going again. Whereas Sammy Smith, right. Yeah, yeah, a fourth place at Darlington last week, which was great. But before that 36 of the Daytona 17th at Iowa 19th at Indy 18th in Atlanta 13th of Chicago his problems go back a little bit farther for a JRM car. Right for a JRM car you expect them to be a top 10 contender every week and a solid top five contender every single week.
Well, he got a fifth place at San Diego, but 19th the Polkano 10th at Nashville 11th at Charlotte 9th at Dover 16th at Watkins Glen, like it's just an average finish of 12.3 for Sammy Smith, you know, and that's I know that Roger Caruth is 17.6, but Roger Caruth has been splitting time between the 32 and the 88 right. So at least he's got a little bit of an excuse to jump back into some lesser equipment and then getting back into the junior Motorsports 88 right, which obviously we know is Hendrick. Anyways, but still it's just a matter of I think that they're putting a little more attention lately on to Roger Caruth and for Sammy Smith, they expect stuff out of him and now right. He's not even going to be in that eight car next year. So now he's just driving on borrowed time. So he's just going to be out of the out of it and we won't see him anymore. So maybe the necessity or the need to put in. I don't know, not I don't say quality finishes, but you know, if if I'm going to see that whole. Do I really need to step on the gas for it? No, I'm fine, but Roger Caruth still fighting for something. So like I said, this is just more of me leaning on the fact that that 88 should be fast and the eight.
I don't know. Yes, it should be fast, but by the same token, I'm like, it doesn't seem like the effort may end up being there in the end. So give me Roger Caruth over Sammy Smith. This is minus 110 over on draft Kings. Well, Rod, I completely disagree with you. And that will lead me into my first bet, which is Sammy Smith over Roger Caruth minus 120 over on draft Kings. I love the other side of this. And I think that Sammy Smith is an absolute smash here and not only do I love it, which I came up completely on my own. Then I went over to win the race to see if the data would back me up, Rod, win the race.info $100 for the rest of the season. All of not only the cup races, of course, we talked about that yesterday, but the O'Reilly stuff, the truck stuff, you get 200,000 simulations, but you know what? That's kind of underselling it because it's 200,000 simulations, pre-practice and qualifying. But then there's another 200,000 simulations, post-practice and qualifying with that data added in there.
So really it's 400,000 simulations of the race each week for each race. Make sure you head over there. It gets signed up. But I went over there to see what they've thought about this matchup. They like Sammy Smith as well. He wins this matchup in 51.4% of the matchups or of the 200,000 race simulations, putting this at minus 106 fair market value. I'm getting it at minus 120, so it's a little bit more. But if it wins, it wins the only pay that you lose as we know, Rod, and it's going to win. So I appreciate your attempt at Roger Kruth and how maybe he has done well. But I think that I'm going to highly disagree because he's 26 lives with good Darlington mechanical issues. I get it. That happens. So we won't hold that against him, but it's another not good run for that team. Day to 30 second got caught up in a wreck. I will he finished second, but very misleading. We had was a multiple over times. All the big dogs got crashed. All guys have see. Everybody like wasn't really up there. Right place of the right time. Hey, props to him for doing it. He gets a second place.
20 second at Indie. Night that Atlanta, but it's a drafting track. He was 24th of Chicago. You know, and before that, just not a lot of great runs. And I know he was in some other cars and stuff, but part of the reason he's on other cars is I don't know that he's earned really a full ride in this car. Anyways, I get there's a money deal to it as well. Tammy Smith on the other hand has been more consistent. So you look at those Karuth finishes and it's, you know, 26 30 second, 20 second, 24, 20 second. Yeah, you pop up with a lucky ninth place in a wreck. You pop up with a second place with Rex. You pop up with a ninth place with a super speedway. You pop up with a 14th at our road course, but not get finishes on the ovals. But for Sammy Smith is coming off for fourth place run at Darlington. A great day. Daytona is what it is 17th at Iowa. Wasn't good that day. We had the car lift. It didn't go great 19th at Indie again. Not great finishes, but consistent at least 13th at Chicago 11th at Sonoma, 5th at San Diego. He's had at least, you know, 9th place at over 11th place at Charlotte 10th place at Nashville. Is he going to get a top 10 maybe, maybe not. It's going to be borderline.
But at least he's consistently finishing where with Roger Karuth. It's a lot of times there's just not even finishing going on there. So that's why I like Sammy Smith going to take him in this one. Also, Sammy Smith, only 55 points outside of the race lead or the standings lead behind Justin Olgaer. Is he going to win the title? No. But he's at least got somewhat of a chance. Roger Karuth. 104 points back already after we're just one race. Who has something to race for this week? I don't know that it's career. That's all right. I like I said Sammy Smith's on his way out anyways. And then of course, Sammy Smith the last time he was on this track last year, 33rd after starting 20 seconds. So already, well, I believe he was caught up in that 11 car. Big one at Gateway here, not overly worried about it. He didn't even qualify well. So that's why he goes in there. Did they qualify her last year? I don't know. Maybe it was the metric, Rob. Maybe it wasn't. I have no idea. I want to say, but I'm not worried about it. They're both going to have fast cars. They're both J. R. M. cars. I just trust Sammy Smith to be OK enough more than I trust Roger.
I don't think either of these guys are going to be battling for a top five at the end of the day. 88 car. Maybe. But Karuth, I mean, it's going to be this is going to be like 11th and 18th, I think at the end of the day. 88 car actually won this race last year with Conor's illogical 121. Wow. The 88 car won 10 races with Conor's illogical last year. And Karuth has zero this year. So I wouldn't be just saying anything. Well, Jimmy wants to see who will be sidelined after this head to head. We'll go from there. We'll see. I don't think there'll be any punishment. Let us know. Let us know in the comments or after words when you're listening, let's know in the discord or comment on the YouTube video. Which side of the head to head do you like? We always like to see who side you take? Who gave who presented the better story? So that's not fair. Cody, it's always you. Like this is like telling my kids to tell me between it's not my mom or her, their mom and me, who they believe. Well, mom, mom always. I do. Right. So anyways, all right. Well, I'll let you go next because you gave me the the difference for this one. But we'll get back on track with your next box.
All right. Well, let's get back on track. I'm going to get back on track with Carson, Quawe. We're going to take him for a top five finished minus 125. Look, we saw last week. And we've seen really every race here lately that clearly the one in seven cars are going to be better than everybody else. And that's just how it is. Now the biggest question is, can they get to the end? They were unable to do that last week. That cost us. I know that that can hurt if you have them in those bets. But there's no question that these are the two best cars in the field. Each and every single week for the most part. Right. Occasionally get somebody that's a little better. And you get NASCAR to the race plays out how it does or whatever. They got into the nighttime and the cars just didn't adjust with it. And it was bad finishes. But we know that they're the fastest cars. We know that there are a couple of the best drivers. We know that there are two of the guys most likely to win the championship. I would say at this point in time. Right. You can obviously toss in a creed. There's a couple of other guys that are right there with a shot. But all guy are in quad pole. Like if you have to, if you have to name, who's going to be the final two in it. Those are the guys you're probably going to give out first. I would imagine.
So, so we're going to take that and we're just going to look at how a car some quad pole has run because it's been amazing. The season started off a little slow. He was also splitting time between the one and the 91 and kind of bouncing around. Right. I think you're answering races in the 90s. Then had some OK runs. Actually, you had some really good runs like fifth, the Darlington in the spring, fifth, the rocking, half fifth of Bristol. Couple not so good runs and then we get to Dover and it was just like a switch flipped. Seventh at Dover, ninth at Charlotte, seventh at Nashville, tenth of Pocano, fourth at San Diego, sixth at Sonoma, eleventh at Chicago, second at Atlanta. Then he wins his first career race at Indy, backs it up with a second career, win at Iowa, third at Daytona two weeks ago. And then last week, again, sits on the pole. It has an extremely fast car. Unfortunately, falls back into 12th place. So this is just you look at the second, I guess two thirds of his season really and it's been really, really good. He's figured it out. It's clicked. All the talent we knew was there has shown up. He's in this championship hunt.
Is he going to go out and win this race? Is he going to be the one that can beat all guy or somebody else pop up there? I don't know, but I'm not worried about it. Just go be one of the five best cars at the end of the day. That's all you need minus 125. This is going to be one of the two or three fastest cars in the field. I would almost guarantee. I mean, it's going to be one of the fastest cars in this race. They just have to execute and get to the end. But there's no question it will be one of the best cars in the field. So give me car. So call pull top five at minus 125. That's over on draft kings and then tossed in a long shot top five. Don't always do this a ton in this series, but the more and more I looked at it, the more and more I was really starting to feel Ryan Seag this weekend. I consider the top 10. You can get it at like plus 125 or plus 145. I don't hate it, but I feel like he's more of a, you know, you're going to get a lot or you're not going to get everything type of guy. So I'm going to go for a lot right 19th place run last week wasn't great. Obviously one cash the whole car lift a couple of weeks ago. At darling to or at Daytona. So that was great. But I'm going back to Iowa. He sat on the pole in that car and again, there's some comparisons to Iowa to this track. It's a little loose, but sits on the pole in that car.
Leads 65 laps. He was up front all day long. We get to those late race really starts. He was right there with a chance to win that I could have seen Ryan Seag when his first career race in person. Unfortunately, he got caught up in all that damage and craziness on those late race wrecks right and doesn't get the result. But he had a fast car. That's what I'm taking note of. And he's had really good runs this season again, like pops up every once in a while, seventh at Charlotte, eighth place at Dover, a ton of top 10s, you know, fourth or ninth place rather at the rock, ninth place at Martinsville had some good runs. I like the upside there. I think it eight to one. Maybe Seag doesn't show up and he kind of just runs 15th. That's what he tends to do a lot. Okay. But if he shows up and has a really good car, the top five guy at the end of the day at eight to one. I got more thoughts on Quapal later. And yeah, I mean, it's hard to break into the top five in the chalkiness that we expect to and slow roll saying Quapal minus 110 on 365 for a top five. So.
See, I just looked and I don't think it was that number before, but hey, that works. If you can get it minus 110, obviously it's even better. So take it and yeah, I mean, you know, if the chalk hits, we get Quapal. And if we get NASCAR and crazy stuff happens, we have an 11 car wreck. Seag finds himself in the top five. You know, might even be able to catch both these guys. Indeed. All right. I look so I'm landing on the not popular side of a couple of head to heads. I suppose this week. I'm I'm praying for just a little bit just a sprinkle of chaos enough to make these head to heads hit. And I'm taking Brandon Jones over Jesse love minus 105. I know it seems sacrilege, but look, man, it that too car that defending champion. He is falling on some hard times since Atlanta. Right. I mean, you thought for sure after San Diego, where he finished six and then night that Sonoma and then third is chic. Oh, we got Jesse love back, right. But the defending champs average finishes here 12.6 and over the last few races. We've got 26 that Atlanta 16th at Indy 35th at Iowa 20th at Daytona 13th at Darlington. It just, I mean, it's, there's no, there's no quarter for Jesse love right now. He can find no relief as to what's been going on. Obviously now that is a lame duck seat as well. Right.
Where we know Jesse love will no longer be in that to next year. He is on to bigger, better things over in the 21 next year. So once again, right. I mean, I know these guys are they drive for pride. I get it. But when you already like again, I've said this million times over when you're in the military and you know you're getting out those last four or five months, you just you're on auto, you're on autopilot, you're a cruise control. You just you know that if you go in and you punch the clock, if you waited out, you're off. And then at the end of it, you're completely out. So, you know, as much as they don't want that mindset to set in, we're human and that kind of things like, uh, maybe I won't necessarily decadient to try to do this. So Jesse, I will say racing cars is probably pretty fun. I'm sure I know it's fine. Not an apt comparison. But I mean, it's just it's everybody's job, right. So that's just the way you look at it. Anyways, somebody's doing their job right now is Brandon Jones Brandon Jones average finishes 12.1. Not much better than Jesse loves, but over the last several races, though, whereas Jesse loves graph has gone like this. Brandon Jones has kind of gone somewhere here, right. So he won at Chicago seventh in Atlanta, ninth at Indy, 14th at Iowa, 5th at Daytona, and then a 10th place finish after starting 3rd at Darlington,
uh, or yeah, after starting 30 finish 10th at Darlington last week. So Brandon Jones has been on a little better of a trajectory than has Jesse love been in, you know, with Brandon love or Brandon, we ran in Jones, uh, he has to fight and scrap now, because he's in a position where he can't lose anywhere. He lost two positions last week in that race, uh, overall. So he's an eighth overall right now 58 points back of Justin, all guy or four, the championship. So there's no more Mulligans for Brandon Jones. He's got to come out swinging and point of fact, the last race that they had here in 2025, Brandon Jones, edged out Jesse love by one spot in this race where Brandon Jones finished 4th, Jesse love finished in 5th. Brandon, we may get another situation like that this time where these guys are both in the top 10, and this is only decided by a couple of spots or Jesse love can continue his not so good run. And this is a Brandon Jones top 10 and Jesse love outside of the top 15. So, um, like I said, this is just more of a where these graphs are heading and and they're not, they're not going like this. They're going like this. So yeah, can be Brandon Jones over Jesse love.
There's just not enough data on this track for me to make an opinion on Brandon Jones. I need to I need substantial amount of races run by him to determine which tracks he's good at which tracks he's not. So I'll just ride with you and and hope you're right. It's tough like I said, because we do a lot of the what have you done for me lately, and I get that you know there's not enough track that on this one, but just the what have you done for me lately, Brandon Jones is actually won a race over the last month and a half where Jesse love is barely even finished in the top 10 in that span at all. So, you know, as much as we love love and believe me, we love love. It's tough. Um, Jimmy wants to know what about Jones top 10 for minus one 41 safer, but it's just, it's too juicy. He's so he can be. Yeah, that's a lot of juice to pay for a guy that's as volatile as Jones is like, it's not like you know he's going to be in the top 10. Like if that was Sheldon Creed today or somebody where it's like, yeah, they run in the top 10 every single week of Jones is like, he can go out and have the best car one week and then he's so much like Joey Ligano.
Like best car one week and then he's racing with, you know, the worst cars the next week and it's like what the hell's going on here? Yeah, well, it's funny because JRM has obviously set themselves apart this season as the better team over JGR as on the whole right. And so when you have the 20 car being the better of I don't even know if I want to say the better of them, but it kind of is at this point, right? Because Cruz has had his trouble. Grey has had his trouble. You know, then you got Brandon Jones and well, they're all four of them are just any given week. It's like which one's going to be they have fast cars, but there's nobody that consistently you'd say like, oh, they're going to be good. Because it's just every week. It's like, oh, some of our good, some of them are in a, you never know which one's going to be. Yeah, and that's that leads into what Jimmy said the top 10. He was behind him and between him and so watch and I wouldn't touch swallow this week. To the point, yeah, like both of them, you just can't trust and so all it might be too busy trying to catch Corey Day to wreck him to pay attention to getting a decent finish himself.
You know, that could very well be the case too. And that that actually could end up happening that that's the one on tracks that dispute I think could end up happening. Well, especially because you get just a young guy like that unless like Joe has sat him down and said, look, this don't be tearing up, especially Rick's car like I don't think Joe and Rick want to be in a beef like. So maybe you get that and they just kind of squash it, but somebody like swallow check it, see going out of his way to do dumb shit like that. And it's, you know, that young rookie, not, you know, hasn't figured it out yet and it just gets in the way of actually getting a good result. You got to watch out for it. Indeed. All right. Let's get to more bets. But before we do, I got to tell you about our friends at Underdog who wants to be a million others football season. Yeah, raise your hand. You do download Underdog and jump into keep your million. Start with a million dollars and head your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher or lower. Keep whatever lands on the winning side. But if you hit zero, you are out. Make it through all 20 rounds and you walk away with whatever's left in bonus funds trading involves risk, including total loss on positions, content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade promotion issued by affiliate terms.
Apply. Digging right now. I begin into all week. This actually this projection is lower now than it was before. Christian McCaffrey now only has to clear 57 and a half rushing yards in the opening week against the Rams to get this projection on higher than and I'm going to take the higher than now I get two more yards on that one. Yes, please. I was already on it at 59 and a half. Now I'm on it at 57 and a half. So going to be Christian McCaffrey higher than 57 and a half rushing yards into the game tomorrow night. If you're a new customer in select states, you can now get a 50% deposit match up to $1,000 and bonus funds underdog promo code SGP and we are brought to you by CalShi on CalShi. You can trade spreads, money lines, totals, futures and so much more CalShi's got great prices for college and pro football. You could trade on almost anything on CalShi and they're available in a ton of states, terms and conditions do apply. New England Patriots kicking off very, very shortly and look at they're now 39 cents on the yes to win this race. That means a $10 investments going to bring you back 24 59 when the Patriots squash the stupid sea hawks absolutely love that one. Trade $25 get $25 over on CalShi use promo code SGP and that's CalShi KAL SHI promo code SGP and encouraging that the money is now coming in on your Patriots.
The trading was not that high yesterday, but now it's up to 39 cents. It scares me a little bit. I would rather people be betting on the sea hawks, but the Patriots are going to cover anyway, so not worried about it. All right, next up, Rod, how about you got a top 10 here last year in an alpha prime car in parker, that's love you can get us top 10 to one love that over on bet 365. I think that's a great number and that's I'll spend our guy all year right and he's not been cash in the top 10s here lately, but he's been oh so close weekend a week out starts in the top 10 last week at darlington. But he ended up caught up in something at one point and just wasn't able to kind of recover, but prior to that 14th of Daytona 13th at Iowa 11th at Indy 3rd at Atlanta 14th at Chicago, 5th at Sonoma 7th at San Diego 12th at Nashville 12th at Charlotte 7th at the Glant 5th at Texas 9th at Bristol 8th at Rocky 8th at darlington like he is in or around the top 10 each and every single week. He's a chase driver now again doesn't have a realistic chance of winning the championship, but the best finish you can go get for a team like that and for a guy that is trying to show what he's got moving forward.
We believe that he's got the legacy motor club deal like development deal right and they're not afraid to get rid of one guy to put in a guy that shows some promise and they just did that. And you got to think maybe that rally herpes the right is opening a couple of years if if Riley doesn't pan out after he brings all the monster money to pay for the charter. But Parker has a lot to race for right now and he's been running well all season to one for a top 10 in again a top 10 market that's like you know as Jimmy was just talking about like you get some gross numbers on some of these minus 141 for a Jones. So all it just like minus 110 and just guys you can't trust but rats off you can trust to be in or around each and every week so I laugh. Now this next guy rod some people won't be talked into it but Jeremy climates top 10 plus 450 why wouldn't we run this back it hit last week. Even though I was not very convincing in my case I'll try to do a better job this week. But he was a shorter number last week and he finished on the top 10 rod so I don't know I feel like that's a pretty good deal you're getting there.
Then a bit rough at some tracks here lately you had Daytona where he's 33rd Iowa where he was 30th but all fight in the top 10 was a victim of that chaos that Iowa that we had late. So result not indicative of how they ran 37th at any but again qualified and fourth the speed has been there in that 51 car all year long and you go back at some of these other tracks. 16th at Pokemon 18th at Nashville 15th at Dover 10th at Texas 15th at Bristol 15th at Kansas he's in or around the top 10. That is often his parker outside but it's a bigger number that's what you're looking for but the all time starts leader he's got starts here before. Right when we talk about a guy like yeah just an olgas raised here back in 2010 a long time ago but Jeremy Clements is a guy who's raised here before as well he did finish 15th last year so you got a little bit of chaos in that race but good run in 2010 he actually finished 10th place got a top 10 finish there in the JD Motorsports car 16th in 2009 22nd in 2008 in his first start here but he's at least seen the track before decent run last year.
He's been running better than he has in years here lately so we're going to run it back with Jeremy Clements top 10 plus 450. Yeah and no one can say that he's not done it at this track before because he definitely has like you said he's got a 10th place finish at and started 24th to on this track. Here just for just real quickly I want to read that 2010 top 10. Brad Kuzlowski wins this race starting 20th Mike Bliss comes in second Justin Holgaier comes in third Jason leftler comes in fourth Carl Edwards fifth read sorenson sixth Josh wise seventh Brad Coleman 8th Paul Menard night Jeremy Clements 10th that's a lot of those guys guys that you have gone on to be cupped guys are Josh wise that runs the Chevy program all these different things so very interesting very interesting. All right well I'm going to take a more convention whole top 10 play because I think every I mean Cody took the two that I think are good for outliers but everybody else is going to come from the chase and I feel like I know that the books have kind of priced everybody grossly but they they left Taylor Gray
Taylor Gray with a petible number for top 10 at minus 110 over on the score so Taylor Gray top 10 minus 110 on the score he had a top 10 finish last week at Darlington which was a seventh place finish Daytona you throw that out because it's super speedway but Iowa seventh place there in the 12th place but he did or he did qualify fifth so there's still speed in that JGR car Chicago we finish seventh as well you go back to Nashville where he had a top 10 finish in ninth he won at Kansas earlier in the season 10th at Bristol seventh at rocking ham 13th at martensville 15th at Darlington in the spring was on the pole in Phoenix ended up finishing in 15th so again you know Taylor Gray JGR cars they are capable they should finish inside of the top 10 that is that is where they are supposed to finish inside of the top 10 and Taylor Gray being I guess the elder states well maybe not Brandon Jones the elder states but being the other adult in the room for JGR for JGR right should be the guy that ends up finishing 10th as well and to that end 46.7% of the Sims for when the race haven't finished inside the top 10 fair market values at plus 114 again the books are not going to get burned by plus 114 on a JGR driver especially one like Taylor Gray
like I said it's been a rough year outside of that for him he's only got 10 top 10 finishes in 25 starts which is 40% of them but you know again when you're finishing 46.7% of the time in the top 10 your average top 10 finish is 40% some of those are been super speedways and road courses that he hasn't finished inside of the top 10 toss those out number gets a little bit better so yeah Taylor Gray should be a top 10 car this this weekend and minus 110 is not that bad of a price to swallow on the score. Yeah I don't mind this one again in in a week that's tough when it comes to the top 10s I like this one somebody else I really like a 10 to 1 the mustache himself Dean Thompson look Dean Thompson when you're getting him at a number like 10 to 1 again there's going to be inconsistency there is not going to be top 10 every week but he can 10 to 1. He's used to impress me weekend in week out just the way we've watched him grow over the last couple of years and just become a better and better race car driver from you know those first first year or two of this podcast in the truck series was just like this guy's a menace and you know he's only in the car because his dad's names on the side of the truck and all that stuff and and he's turned into a really good race car driver and he's been putting in the results here lately last week at Darlington 11th place one spot outside of the top 10 Iowa couple of weeks ago in eighth one.
And then the place finished again some chaos at the end yes but say that trouble found his way into the top 10 at the end of the day mind it is peeing cues to care of business 21st at Indy but 17th the Chicago 13th a Pokemon 4th the Nashville 14th a Charlotte those are all the traditional loval I just went through all of the traditional loval results all the way back to to Charlotte back in May and it's all been really good runs outside of 21st at Indy OK but the rest of them getting close enough to that top 10. And that chaos happens like it Iowa finds his way in there took care of his tires last week got some spots at the end ends up 11th at Darlington 10 to 1 in a should be chalkier should be heavy towards the favorites up front. Dean Thompson can find his way in there we're going to run him back on another top 10 at 10 to 1 must actually definitely the mustache bet of the week absolutely 11 and 16th their last year so again to that consistency and he's gotten better. Since a whole year ago when they were last at this race yeah yeah that's the biggest thing to like when you know that they can do it then you are 100% more certain that they could do it again so I'm alright speaking of that how about
Corey Day take his top five plus 160 over on draft kings look Corey Day finished ninth here last year that was his sixth career O'Reilly auto parts series start right so we know that already Corey Day was flirting with the top five after only six starts in the O'Reilly auto parts series what is he done this season really got 16 top 10 seven of those top five the last of which was that second place finish at Darlington bad days of Daytona and Iowa but 7th Indianapolis you got to go back to Charlotte where he got fifth place finish he won at Dover one at Taladega second at Martinsville sixth the Darlington earlier in the season ninth at Phoenix fourth at Atlanta so we know like if you've watched NASCAR if you watch the O'Reilly auto parts series you know Corey Day is fast the only problem with Corey Day is if Corey Day beats Corey Day right honestly if he makes one of those rookie mistakes or if he just out now doesn't do it that that's the only reason that people get to beat him is because he beats
himself Corey Day on win the race actually is the fourth highest average as far as top five is a concern 38.6% of the time fair market is plus 159 so you're getting this right at fair market value for Corey Day but again right we know these junior motorsports cars are all there they're heading I'm sorry Rick Hendrick cars which is again still junior motorsports adjacent I there's no there's no delineation kids if you're going to use though you're going to swap them out but you know these junior cars are fast you know Corey Day is fast his upside is is all over the place as far as how high this kid can go and he's still in touch with the championship stand he's 46 points back now in fifth he rose two spots from the the finish to the ad last week in the second place finish so Corey Day man I think you can get it done again I think we can get another top five out of him and the fact that you get 60 out of this almost two to one great price yeah don't mind it all got some more thoughts on Corey Day here in a bit so I will hold on to that but first rod we have got Cody's car lift O'Reilly Series style we are going to go yeah
weeks big winner it was showed a showdown creep finally getting a non super speedway win in the O'Reilly series checking that box off the list but look dude has been running really really great lately so I didn't put this on the card but you know Jimmy was talking about it if you want to pay minus 141 for a top 10 for Brandon Jones don't and instead you can get a showdown creep a minus 140 on bet 365 for a top 10 it's pretty do stop but I do not hate it at all but for the official car lift we're going to start with over Brandon Jones minus 115 and he made a case for a merrier but you can't trust him we can a week out we just talked about that that's the complete case there essentially top five at plus 160 top three to one win the race 10 to one for Mr. Sheldon Creed he's really been on fire here lately and the biggest thing he's only what is a 12.7 points behind just an all-guyer now for the lead in this chase with a shot at the championship and do you look at Sheldon Creed and you think he can win a championship well I do because guess what he's done it in the
truck series he's a former champion already in the truck series he knows how to get it done when it comes down to crunch time and he showed that last week with a dominating performance leading 53 laps for a ton of points winning the race at Darlington but it's been a pretty good run for Creed here as a lady again looking at the traditional ovals that we've had lately wins at Darlington fifth place at Iowa he led 36 laps in that race as well started on the pole at any led 23 laps of the eighth place finish Chicago was 16 so a bit rough there but fifth place run a polka now 50 so there was a tough stretch in there but there's a lot of time to go back to the second place and then we're going to go back to Watkins Glen if you go back early in the season Texas sixth Dega third Kansas second Bristol six Rocking Am six Martin zoh forth Darlington seventh Las Vegas third Phoenix four so all the way from March 7th the fourth race of the season until Texas in May or getting on a bit of a run like that again since Indy back in July eighth fifth tenth first place finishes for
Sheldon Creed he's a streaky driver and he knows how to get it done and and look you know didn't run grow didn't finish great here last year I think he was also caught up in that wreck I'm not going to look into that too much we don't have extensive track history to look back on how he runs here but how he runs right now that's what I'm looking at that's good enough for me so if you really want to go out on the Super spices at C first I've kept going that I need that as I do for and Bible and if I knew they would play on the surface just Top 10 that is, but then we're gonna take over Brandon Jones minus one 15 the top five at plus 160 the top three three to one and win the race tend to. Riven O'Reilly auto part series winner Sheldon Creed. It's hard not to reform. I tell you I had said it in the recap episode. I pretty much said it anyway today. My bring up his name like he's my favorite Canadian that's not actually Canadian from California. So I love Creed. Give me some Creed. And I also love the group too. I you look at a case earlier about Carson Quapples top five.
I did have his top three in the dock at plus 160. So also though slow roll saying 175 plus 175 for Corey Day top five on the score. They didn't have that when I was initially going through it. So I'm glad somebody found it. It's changing constantly. So you get better. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sometimes it changes to the better routes. So again, shop around. Look at the options you have and always do that. Indeed. Anyway, Carson Quapple top three plus 160 over on draft Kings. It may be better somewhere else. But you talked about it earlier when you were making this case for his top five. I mean, the guy had his top three streak broken last week at Darlington. And I just don't know. I still can't figure out how the hell that happened. Right. Starting on the pole and fading to 12th, but he still had a car that should have been a top three car all day long led 20 of those laps as well. So you know, second in Atlanta, first in India, first in Iowa, third in Daytona. Carson Quapple should be a top three car at the end of the day. There's just no, no two ways about it.
And at plus, almost again, almost two to one for this. I'll take it. Yeah. Hi, I'm not going to argue. Obviously, I made the case for him to be top five earlier. I said he should be one of the best two cars out there on the day. So take the top five, take the top three, maybe even take him out. Right. But for our rights for me, Sheldon Creed, we already talked about a course in the car lift. And then I was looking at it. I was looking at all. I was looking at qualifal. I know that they should have the best cars. I know they should have the fastest cars. I couldn't pull the trigger. So I figured I'll go a little lighter in the outright area and just kind of sprinkle some guys that I think could be the ones that upset the apple car. It should be should be all guy or should be qualifal, but should have been that last week and it wasn't and we hit Sheldon Creed 12 to one. So we're going to run that thought that, you know, thought back. I can't keep my thoughts straight as I'm trying to think about thoughts. Anyways, give me Brent Cruz, nine to one over on the score. I know you referenced earlier about the JDR guys. They're tough. It's, you don't really know what's going on there.
And with Cruz, that's somewhat the case because it's inconsistent at times. But when he runs well, he runs really well. And he's still looking for that first career win. He has been close. Oh, so many times. Last week, yet a third place run at Darlington. Now, 65 or 35th rather at Daytona, 16th at Iowa, weren't the best. But six place at Indy was respectable. 24th at Atlanta again, drafting track. But prior to that, fourth at Chicago, third at Sonoma, wrecked out at San Diego, but second at Poca, no second at Nashville. So really, really close to getting some wins. Again, while the performances aren't always consistent, 37th at Dover, 22nd or 37th at Charlotte, 22nd at Dover. But then again, there was good runs before that. Sixth at the Glen, fourth at Texas, second at DeGa, fifth at Kansas, third at Bristol. He's got that ability. And we know these cars are fast, right? Year on the show. It's for me. It's been all about the JDR cars in the Riley series. It's been a tough year this year because they've been inconsistent and you can't trust them as much. But we still know their fast cars.
And when one of those guys comes out and puts together a race, they're a dangerous threat to win the race. We've seen Swallow Twin. We've seen Jones win. We've seen them dominate races. Cruisers been so close at nine to one. Maybe this is a week where he pops up. Has a great run. He's certainly capable of it. And he's been running pretty good here lately. You've already talked extensively about Corey Day. So I won't talk about it too long, but a 12 to one. I think it's too good of a driver and too good of a car. Not to bet him here, outright. He just finished that in place last week at Darling. Despite some troubles in race, had the Swallowed Steel got some damage, fought through it, got a good finish. Some inconsistencies there throughout the season as well. But already won. So he's a proven winner as well. He could get it done again, a 12 to one, the number's right. And then I told you earlier, as my research kept going on, I just kept finding myself landing on Ryan Seagal. A little bit. He's 50 to one over on bet 365. For a little sprinkle, we saw him come out. And this actually, I'll give this out right now. Kalshi rod, promo code SGPN.
Ryan Seagal is going to be the O'Reilly series driver that I'm going to purchase some outright on prediction and set it to AutoSell when he is running good in this race because he runs good at a AutoSell. And they don't have to worry about whether he wins it or not because I think he is going to be fast and look good. So a little bonus for you there. But at 50 to one, I'm going to take some outright for myself to have as well because I think he could get it done. We've seen the speed at Iowa 400 and some starts before he gets his first career win, but he got that win. We start to see those wins come in once you get one, right? Cheldon Creed. So Seagal, the type of guy, I think I have the fastest car. He actually somewhat could probably not going to need some help, but he can put himself in position. That's what you're looking for. Give me some Ryan Seagal 50 to one as a long shot. That'll definitely be fun to cheer for as well. But like you, I just could not, I mean, just an all-guar. Yes, probably should end up winning this race, but it was like plus 2.95 on some books.
It's just tough. He should be the guy, but he should have been last week. And if you look, and just an all-guar, like when's the last time you won? It's actually been, and I know that they've taken, you know, a bunch of time off. It seems like you're lately, but I was looking back, and it's been a while since he's actually won a race. And so it's like, gosh, can you justify betting him at this number? And it's not like he died this race last year. He got caught up in that big wreck, but hey, you got to go back to Atlanta, which is a drafting track for his last win. And prior to that, I hadn't won since Pocano in June. So as dominating of a season as it's been, he's not been doing it as much here lately. Yeah, so that's why it's tough to just say that he's going to get an outright, because we know Piano's tend to drop on Justin Allgire and unfortunate places. So I will go with Carson Cuaple. Plus 5.50, I was going to go with the next best guy, because his odds seem to be a little bit squashed because of it over on Caesars for all the reasons that we made. So we're sort of running a show lift, a show car lift on him over the course of it.
But I mean, why not take it all the way up to the top at plus 5.50? Almost six to one seems like a pretty good price for Cuaple who should be able to, like Cody said, duke it out with Allgires of the world and everybody like that. So I took Cuaple, but then I should probably give out one other driver who could come from outside of the 10 to one Ranger or somewhere in that vicinity to kind of sweep the win in. And that's Brandon Jones, 10 to one. I mean, we talked about him earlier over Jesse Love. And for me, it's just a matter of Brandon Jones coming in and doing what JGR should be doing. He's actually, believe it or not, it goes just in Allgires, Jesse Love, Brent Cruz, Corey Day, and then Brandon Jones in terms of the simulations on win the race to win the race. So he's at 9.5, Fairmarket Value for him is plus 957, which is you're getting fairmarket value from to win the race. But he, like I said, he comes in as the fifth highest driver as terms of percentages of winning the race here in the Sims. So there's something there. The data points a little bit toward Brandon Jones
being one of the contenders. And so a 10 to one, could he be that guy to assert himself and grab a win here in the chase? Who knows? But I'm thinking 10 to one's willing, or I'm willing to speculate on 10 to one for Brandon Jones. Yeah, outright are always the best place in Brandon Jones, because it's got that upside always. He can let you down in a lot of other ways, but I always like a good Brandon Jones out, right? And I'm not gonna argue with Carson Quaul, either, again, you're choosing straws between him and all guy and he's been the one who's one more here lately. And he's at up twice the number. So no arguments on either of those outrides for me. Indeed. Get out your bed of paper time to go over our bets for this new way to 25 powered by Bobcat, sauceed by Blue Hogg. I started you out with Roger Karuth over Sammy Smith at minus 110. I gave you Brandon Jones over Jesse Love at minus 105. Taylor Gray, top 10 car minus 110, Corey Day, top five plus 160. Carson Quaul, top three plus 160.
I also gave you Carson Quaul, pulls it outright and then Brandon Jones as an outright as well. Cody, started you off with the reverse of what I gave you. He gave you Sammy Smith over Roger Karuth at minus 120. Gave you Carson Quaul, top five at minus 125. Ryan Seag, top five at eight to one. Parker Reds, left, top 10, two to one, right, or Jeremy Clements, top 10 at plus 450. Dean Thompson, top 10 to 10 to one. Give you the Creed Carlift over Brandon Jones at minus 115, top five at plus 160, top three at three to one to win the race at 10 to one. And then his outright to include Brent Cruz at 9 to one, Corey Day at 12 to one and Ryan Seag at 50 to one. So win the new way to 25, not the new day, the new way. I like it. Glenn Checking in says fun fact. Worldwide technology is closer to St. Louis's downtown than any other track is to its closest downtown area. So it is as much a St. Louis race as Miami, even though homestead is 30 miles away from Miami.
So there you go. I don't know. I didn't double check. I've got no reason to doubt Glenn, of course, but yeah, there's a little fun fact of the day for you. I know well, but it's still the state lines. I just, I don't know. I get the naming rights and everything. It's just it frustrates me because as a San Francisco 49er fan, I hate that they play in Santa Clara, but all right. That's, you know, the New York Jets and the New York Giants, they play in New Jersey and yeah, Chicago will start playing in a lot of the Indiana bears here soon. And they're going to start playing in Canada. That's that's really what's happening. All right, exactly so. Oh, wow. We got to get you out of here. Cody, so let's do that. And as we say goodbye to everybody, we'll be back tomorrow with DFS and Formula One. So we'll see you then, but let everyone know where they can find you outside of this little space. Yeah, looking forward to it. Make sure you get on the Patriots plus three and a half tonight. Get a little bonus bed in there for you. Some football to help you roll into your weekend with your bankroll. You can follow me over on the X throughout Addhouse Corona Scorsese.
I will be picking every game against the spread again for the NFL. Share all that over there along with tons and tons of articles for sportsgammonpodcast.com. You can always find those over there. Give our Facebook page a like as well. Ask our game on podcast. We appreciate it over there. That's the luck. You guys tomorrow go Patriots. Indeed, follow me on Twitter at rjv.gov. As you can find everything that I am up to over there as well. Like Cody said, we got a lot going on. So we'll see you tomorrow for DFS and Formula One. Until then, thank you as always for joining us on our never any quest to make NASCAR betting fun again. Let's go racing. Let's go Niners and let it ride.
More episodes
More from Sports Gambling Podcast Network

NFL Week 1 Thursday Night Football Player Props 9/10/26 – NFL Bets, Player Props...
Sports Gambling Podcast Network

NFL Prop Bets Week 1 | Sports Gambling Podcast (Ep. 2681)
Sports Gambling Podcast Network

College Football Week 2 Best Bets With VSIN's Dustin Swedelson | The College Foo...
Sports Gambling Podcast Network

NFL Week 1 Start Sit Advice | Old-Fashioned Football (Ep. 247)
Sports Gambling Podcast Network