OKTAGON 93 Betting Guide (1169 - Nice!) | MMA Gambling Podcast (Ep.1169)

0:00They won 1169th edition of the M&A gambling podcast on the sports gambling podcast network is brought to you by the SGPN app. Get all of our picks and podcasts for free with the SGPN app. Howdy Ho, D. Jennery, I was welcome to a episode, episode, episode 1169. I was so excited to say 69. I'm butchering the starting of the episode. A welcome to episode 1169 of the M&A gambling podcast on the sports gambling podcast network. I am the grandmaster of flying submissions, of course, Jeff Fox with me, Daniel Gumby-Ryland. We got some Commission on the No more joking around. Othgan is one of her favorite promotions and we have an event going down this coming Saturday in the Czech Republic.

1:00Maybe not the best Othgan event, at least on paper, at least by me looking at it, but maybe got me something else to say about it. No, it seemingly fell apart a little bit when Kaiiki Brito showed up on Kickstarter series because he was supposed to mainly invent this for the title of the Veketai... Not the Veketai title, he was the rating champ against the Miran Gogolade. You put that fight on the top of this card, it suddenly looks much, much better. You know, no offense to Jonas Magard or Robert Crusoe, but that does kind of read an Arctic Enchoncoming event. It's made a venting here and it's largely just made a venting because we lost that title fight off the top. I hope they paired Gogolade with somebody really fun for that fight because Kaiiki's now moving on to the UFC despite... I thought he was getting beat up in that fight when he sent the Hail Mary, but actually the judges had the other way. But regardless, yeah, we'll be seeing him in the UFC, we're out there soon.

2:02Yes. I see there's two Moitai belts technically, are they standing? Oh no, there is a standing bang one. How long is fighting against him? Yeah, I know. The standing bang one, which last time we had been attached on the standing bang world, it was because of a lot too. Yeah, there you go. Yeah, we're not going to break down those fights in full today, but it should be a fun of card. Gizat Gano always has fun cards and good part, they always have their odds. Books always drop the odds early, so we do have odds for this event, which is a good thing. Not always the case, usually not the case, actually, with regional events that they don't usually drop them until the after the year from us. I don't think I dedicated this episode to anyone. Let's get dedicated to John Lee. I don't know if I've ever dedicated an episode to him. Oh, we did. We have a whole... Okay, because we have a whole section that we do dedicated to him on UFC events. I'm going to dedicate to him and see if he watches the outcome episode as well. All right, let's dive into our after. I tell you that we're giving away money, hopefully not out of my pocket. The free raw football game is back. Pick every game against the spread for a chance to win up to $4,000.

3:05And today, over at our site, sportscamonpogus.com slash free roll. And S.J.P.N. gives back. We're continuing to help the ongoing effort to rebuild to Colombia. Go to sportscamonpogus.com slash relief to help today. Now we're going to Bernal, the Czech Republic. This coming Saturday, noon, start time, internet pay per view over at Auton's website, winning group arena. If you want to go check it out in the Czech Republic, 10 fights, MMA, two standing bang slash mojitaya. Basically, it's keep boxing with MMA gloves. So, all right, we are starting with the only MMA belts, actually what we're doing. Our 205. It will be light heavyweight. Volge Tech, Garbaut, he is from the Czech Republic. No, yes, the Czech Republic. You can hear that a lot today. Robert allowed from Germany. Let's break her down by telling him about the allow first. He is 11-3, 7 knockout, 3 submissions. He's been submitted twice. He deals with some rounds here. He's won two straight, both via TKL. And he's won six of his last eight.

4:06He's not lost as June 2019. He used to fight at middleweight and 231 pounds. So, I'll put half a weight once. 2015 Pro and May the Abbey, a year younger than Garbaut plus 214. So, the Celician Knight Garbaut is 9 and 8 with 7 knockouts. He's been knocked out twice, submitted once. One known hot gun. He's won one of four of eight. TKL win came in his last about 0-2 in KSW. He's fought at 1-85 and 2-29. So, he fought up at half a weight once as well. 2016 Pro and May the Abbey. He's done some pro boxing. Wanna know him pro grappling? Three inches taller than LOW minus 275. I didn't give you LOW's hot gun record. Is he fighting hot gun before? No, he just did. No, he just did. The Abbey. That could be because he wasn't really fighting when Octagon was around. Because he's won two straight and hasn't lost since 2019. Now, let's do some quick little logic here. Exactly. You know, we can make a Batman reference here. Where's LOW?

5:07The part where Bat P you don't know. You have no idea of what I'm talking about. He leads. But all of our viewers will know. They know where LOW. Yeah, so Robert LOW, we didn't know where he was for a while. He's seemingly retired in like 2019. A Mexican prison. And then he showed back up like six years later, fighting on the European regional scene. And like was like, as you mentioned, he fought at 185 pounds way back when the last time we saw him was that 231 bout. And he looked like, whoa, how did we get this? You know, like we haven't been training, sir. And so, you know, and in that fight, he fought another guy who was kind of like, you know, partly and maybe not so in shape. And they kind of, it was sloppy, kind of fell all the cage. And like, you know, hopefully he's trying to return back to what he looked like when he was a pro before. Because he was good. You know, he had some like decent takedowns, he threw an overhand that was not bad. But like, it's been six years since we've seen him look decent and he looked out of shape in his last fight.

6:07Now he's going to drop the 205. Hopefully that puts him in a little bit better in shape. But like, I don't think that gives him any chance against Garba here. I was actually surprised Garba was in a much bigger favor. And it's probably just the record. Because like, yeah, Garba did lose a whole bunch of fights in a row there. But it was like high level fights, KSW guys, you know, like stuff like that. He's got some really good takedowns. When he is hitting ground in pound, it's like very, very vicious. He's a really good at controlling you despite the fact that he's hitting you when he's on the ground, which is like a nice combination of his grappling styles. If I had a criticism of Garba, he is a little bit rigid on the feet and a little bit stiff. And when you just mentioned that he was one in O as a boxer, I was actually a little surprised by that. It's like he doesn't read that way. But like at the same time, like, you know, he's fighting a guy who like looked absolutely sloppy in his last fight. The fact that this is only 275 is a kind of a crime. Boy, to Garba should be a parlay piece for a lot of people out there. I think he should win this one pretty easily.

7:09And to prove that technologist just look at records, 80% are allowed, gummy. Yeah, and that's why he's for one time in like, I mean, really, if you were thinking about dropping money on Robert Lowe and like, look, it's not man, anything could happen. But I just as a listener of our show, please go watch his last fight. You can't find it. I'll find a link to it for you. But like, go watch his last fight and just like, look at what he looks like. It's not good. And it hasn't been good for at least six years. So like, I don't know that you're looking at drop your harder money on a guy who looks like this does. So yeah. Yeah. All right, we're going down the middle way. Next, Daniel Ligaki, Czech Republic, Réjon Frizzi's Iwik. Frizziwig. Preciovic. Preciovic. You know where he's from because Jeff put your name. He's from Poland. Preciovic. They're fighting at middleweight. I'm going to tell you about a Preciovic first. Five and one, three knockouts, one submission. He's never been finished. EOS Brown still serve.

8:09One known Oztgon. He did win his last belt after dropping the one before that. Plus one, oh, two. So we got closer odds at least for this one. Ligaki's five and three, three knockouts, two submissions. He's been knocked out once. The Oztgon rounds as well. Three and two in Oztgon. He's dropped two straight and one five straight before that. He's five, one, 55, one, 90 and one, 94. So all over the map here, two no and pro, Moitai, nine inches taller than Preciovic. That is true. He's minus 125. I think it's nine inches. It's six to five, seven. Six four to five seven. Yeah, okay. Yeah. It's, yeah. Preciovic is four short, eight short king. Little time. Shout out to the short king here. I'm actually going to go with the short king. Of course you are. I went back and forth on this one. I actually think the books did a really good job of lining this fight. Because on one hand, Ligaki spotted better level of competition. That's without a doubt. You don't have to sit here and debate that one. He is fought better competition. You know, he's got semi decent, counter wrestling. He's got some good front headlock positions he uses to threaten people.

9:12I'm really turned off by the way he strikes. A lot of it comes right from his shoulders. There's no protection of his face. His hands are not. They come from the side and they're just big swinging shots that like, I don't know how much power you can generate from there. And he doesn't seem to generate a lot of power from there. It's like, I already don't like that about him. You know, like it seems like kind of all the things I'm saying that I like best about him or it's like grappling defense. But there's like not a lot of great offense that I love out of what he does. You know, the way he swings particularly. And you know, the thing I like about Preciovic is like, he bites down and he comes forward. He knows he has ground that he needs to make up. He ducks his head down and throws a big overhand right over the top. Just like every other short king shout out to Roy Nelson and heavyweight. You know, like he does that kind of thing. But in addition to that too, because he is so low to the ground and he is like, you said, he felt like a tank. His take down game is pretty sharp.

10:13Do I think Ligaki might be able to stuff some of those? Sure. You know, he just mentioned he's got a pretty good front headlock game when he it comes to stuffing. But like the way he gets in on a like a reaction double when somebody throws poorly is actually really, really good. And he's hard to get off of them because he is so like, it's got such a low center of gravity. And when you think about the way that Ligaki is throwing, which is what I was just talking about, like all from the shoulders, you can catch him really off balance a couple of times. And I think Preciovic is like crafty enough in that grappling that I think he can find those moments. However, I've got to obviously caveat nine inches of height and probably the same of reach, maybe worse than reach if we're being completely frank. This could look really dumb, really great. But like the books know that there's nine inches of height here too and still only have them is a plus one, oh two underdog. So like that's what they're saying about the skill of Ligaki, right? Like that's what they feel about Ligaki in this situation. So I'm going to take a role on the guy who I think is definitely the better fighter in terms of his skills.

11:14But obviously, you know, like the bigger question is, his physical capability is going to keep him in it. Yeah, could this line get better come wayans? I would, yeah, I want everybody to see a picture of these two standing in the wayans and the like just, yeah, maybe that's the play there. You know, I know we've joked about it before, especially when there's a guy with like a little flab in his mini section or, you know, another short king, let that show up, you know, like let's see what happens because like, yeah, sometimes that's exactly what happens. All right, he's in on a dog, hopefully a bigger dog come by time. So I bought clutch parlase, we brought to you by them. A clutch parlase clutch release has you cover with that about the predictions. The predictions are updated live during the games, which means you get updated odds through every pitch basket and possession. The also highlight the best sports books to place their highest edge place. Read against others and weekly monthly and all time profit leaderboards. And most importantly, clutch parlase is easy to use with the clean and simple dashboard. So simple and clean that I can even use it daily. Clutch parlase is the one stop shop for research and plus EV opportunities.

12:17And gummies been on there digging around trying to find you a play. And I bet he found a good one. Yeah, they got Arizona and Kansas City here on Tuesday in the that the edge is leaning heavily in the favor of the diamond backs. Well, I think you're going to make a nice little playoff run here. So let's ride along with them as they make their playoff run him ride along with clutch parlase on that play. Best part you can get one month free with our promo code SGP. And so having clutch parlase.com promo code SGP. And on a dog fantasy wants to be a millionaire. This football season download on a dog and jump into keep your million. You start with a million dollars and hedge your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher or lower. Keep whatever lands on the winning side. But if you hit zero, you are out. Make it through all 20 rounds and you walk away with whatever is left in bonus funds. Trading involves risk including total loss and positions. Contents promotional and not a recommendation to trade promotion issued by affiliate terms apply. Now we've got all that out of the way. Gummies are going to give you a winning place.

13:18It's going to give you a higher than strikeout play. I'm guessing. Yeah, I am going to get there. And guess what? The beauty of that is is the game I just mentioned over there on clutch parlase with the diamond backs over the royals. We've got a picture of returning in that one for the diamond backs. Do you remember a guy about the name of Corbin Burns? Oh, yes. Back in his throw in here on Tuesday. It's been a year and a half since we've seen him. But like, I mean, the guy was a strikeout machine, you know, even right up into that injury, he was striking out like eight nine guys at game. I think he had, I think he had 30 over his last four starts. Like, I'm going to trust if they're letting him come back right in the midst of a playoff push. They believe in him as much as I do. So let's take the higher than on Corbin Burns's strikeouts, fresh out the game. All right. New customers in select states can now give a 50% to pause match up to a thousand dollars in bonus funds. So go to an org fantasy, sign up for their promo code for that bonus there for MMA SGPN

14:18is the code to use. All right. More winners over in the chuckle public as we move on up the card here. That's a scroll to the right part here on tap. All right. Vladimir Langall. He's from the chuckle public. You guessed it. Maurice Adorf from Germany. They're fighting at lightweight three or five minutes rounds. Adorf, six and four with two knockouts. He's been knocked out twice, submitted once. Oh, one knockout. He's lost three straight including getting submitted in his last bout and he won three straight before that. He's not won a fight since March 2023. He's about 135, 145, six years Jargling and Langall, an inch taller plus four 20. He's a lot of, Langall, nine and seven with nine knockouts. He's been knocked out once, submitted twice. Five and seven and not gone. Win loss, win loss, win loss over his last six fights. He's fed at 145 and 163. He went 10 in a box any one two championships there. One in one in pro kickboxing, one in two in pro moitai minus 649.

15:20So we're back to a wide odds here. Yeah. And in reasonably so. I'm going to take a lot of, you know, a couple of things really great about Vladimir Langall. Obviously nine wins by knockout. The guy throws. He sits right down on whatever he's throwing. He believes in what he's got in his hands. You know, he gets after it. And I love that about him. He's dangerous in every moment of the fight and you have to like that. Now, a Dorf does throw back with a fair amount of power. I think that that's something you're going to have to worry about if you're a Vladimir Langall supporter here. But I also think he's just like a little bit too patient sometimes. And the beauty of that is like Langall is not going to play his patient game and then wind up in the same spot. He's going to be the aggressor earlier. He's going to be the one hurt him earlier as a Dorf like tries to find his range. And like, you know, there's other reasons to like Langall too. Like he will mix in a really good take down. He gets to the hips really well. Although I really wish he would not give up so fast after he does get to the hips. Because sometimes he gets to the hips.

16:20You're like, man, he's in on that take down. And then he just like backs away like he never wanted it in the first place. But between his work, you know, like I said, throwing wild and knees in the clinch and stuff like that, I think he's got so many advantages over our Dorf in terms of the striking. So, you know, even if the Dorf's got a little bit of power and maybe you got to worry about that coming back, I don't think it's enough to actually worry. So yeah, I like Vladimir Langall here. All right. Vlado is the play we are up to our combing event. We got another Czech Republic fighter. Andre Kalasnik. He's fighting against Kennedy. Raimba. He is from Germany as well. He's plus the Germans on the card. They're fighting at middleweight three, five minutes rounds. We will tell you about Raimba. Beaumayee. Kill him. His nickname, 76. Beaumayee. 76. Three knockouts, three submissions. He's been knocked out four times submitted once. He owes his rounds, obviously. Oh and two in Oskam. He's one one of four. But that was his last belt. Oh, three of seven. He's fed it one, seven, two, five.

17:21One known pro Muay Thai plus three, seven. Velasnik AK 47, 13, Andre Kirillenko, 13 to six. Six knockouts, one submission. He's been knocked out four times. Nine and five in Oskam. He's one three of four, four of eight. Got TKOed in his last belt. He's five to one 55 to one 70, one known pro grappling. Two years ago in Raimba, three inches taller, minus five 49. So notice squash match on paper at least. I'm going to take a dice roll here on Raimba. Yeah. I watched him in look. For one round, Raimba looks pretty damn good. And I'm not, it's all we need possibly. It might be all we need. And it was enough for me to be like, OK, he can fight one really good round. The dude throws fastballs. Absolute heat nonstop. Loads up on him. Just not afraid to go out there and empty the gas tank in the first round. And unfortunately, sometimes it means he has nothing left in the gas in the second round.

18:23And it's definitely a possibility here against Clashnick, which would be devastating. But if you watch his early parts of this fight, either in his last fight where he fought kind of a lower level fighter outside of Ockigan and he was throwing those bombs, or if you want to go back to his fight with with Merrick Bartle, where he's like ripping the legs and throwing real big early. And that fight, like, again, in the early parts, he looks good. Tires out, starts to give up positions, starts to give up takedowns. Clashnick, I don't really feel like it's the type of guy who's going to wrestle him and tire about that way, though. So then we're hoping that this is a striking match. I think Clashnick's probably a little slower. Definitely doesn't throw his hard. And also, Clashnick has just been knocked out a whole bunch of times recently. Not just the last fight against the uncertainty, but if you want to go back a little bit too, he got knocked out by a... Did Nicholas Stults to get him once? And then somebody else in Ockigan is not coming out. Because I know he's got at least three Ockigan knockouts. They're big names, right? Sir Duh Stults, and Breetu.

19:24Oh, yeah. Yeah, Kaii ki Breetu. So, like, yeah, dude, who throw hard? And I'm not saying Ryoma deserves to be in the same sentence as the three guys we just said. Those are dudes, right? But he might throw his hard as them. And, like, again, I think if you're playing this, you're really believe Ryoma can get it done in the first, or at least think it's a good enough stab at almost four to one money. Yeah, I'm going to take Kenyb and Ryoma. I know we talked about this with another fight. This kind of feels like one that you could probably just sit on. And sometimes around weigh in, the number will look a lot better. Because despite our joke that people just listen to me in the lines move, that is a joke. And Kalashnik being a negative 550 favorite on a regional card will wind up in a slew of parlay's no matter what. People love to find just like all the biggest dudes and add 13 cents to their parlay. If they do enough of that, Ryoma might kick into the fours. So yeah, I like Kenyb Ryoma here. Excellent, excellent.

20:25All right, we got more plays for you. After I tell you about Kalashnik, we're about to buy Kalashnik. Kalashnik can trade spreads, money line, totals, futures, and much more. Kalashnik's great prices for college and profile. You can trade almost anything on Kalashnik and they're building a ton of states. Terms, conditions, do apply. So head over there. We have lots of suggestions on our sites for Scam and Pog as the column for future plays. Head over to Kalashnik, trade 25 bucks, and get $25 over on Kalashnik if you use our promo code SGPN. So it's Kalashnik, KLSHI, the promo code SGPM. Circus Sportsbook is giving away at least $30 million in prizes for this year's handicap in contest, which means it may be more than $30 million. Sign up in Nevada, play from anywhere. If you're gonna play, you'll need a proxy. So head on footballcondis.com and use our promo code SGPM to get 50 bucks off your proxy at B's. And it's head back to Bruno, Chakras public for our makeshift main event, Radik Roussal. He is from the Chakras public. He's finding us Jonas Magard.

21:25He is from Denmark. We talk about another fighter from Denmark the other day. Remember Gumby? The Dream Fighter, Hellboy. Oh yeah, I hope Mark, too. Yes. So it all comes back to Denmark. Three five minutes, around 145. We will tell you about, after I get to my screen here, Roussal, Rushi, you can call him. 72, four knockouts. He's been submitted once. All those fights taking place in Ockgun. He's won four straight though, all via TKL. He's won five of six. He's fed a 150. He went eight and won in Muay Thai and won a championship. There are four known pro boxing, one in one in pro kickboxing. Three years younger than Magard, two inches taller, plus one 85. Shark, Magard 19 and seven, two knockout seven submissions. He's been knocked out once, seven to four times. Seven to two in Ockgun and the former champion. He's won two straight and four of five. He was a regional champ. He's about a 135, a 155, 2014 pro May debut, minus 244. So first of all, Yokeem Henson, wasn't he no region? Oh yeah, maybe. Same thing, it's the same part of the world, right?

22:28Sort of. So, I like, we are to it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I like Yonah Spagard here. I think along with Vajtekar, but probably two really great part of A-Pieces, if you're looking to find a way to make Dodds a little bit more fun on this fight card. The reason I like it, I mean, like I think the forward pressure is too much here for Rochelle. When you watch Rochelle fight, yeah, like he is a good boxer, he spends a lot of time particularly early in the fight backpedaling. And like it's really hard to start finding home for what you want when you're letting your opponent dictate the pace. And Yonah Spagard does an excellent job of that. He stays very bouncy, very light on his feet, cuts good angles, and largely he's doing it because it helps to set up that grappling game. That is so dominant for Yonah Spagard. His ability to shoot the takedown against the fence, you know, open space, it doesn't matter. He's a guy who that forward pressure pays dividends for him. So I think if Rodic Rochelle does backpedal the way he does early in fights, he's gonna find himself pinned against the cage and taken down here. I think that's a problem for him.

23:29I think you also might find that Rodic Rochelle here, finds himself behind in rounds, especially with, you know, with the open scoring, he knows he's down, he starts swinging bigger. It's one of the things I've seen from him before is if he thinks he's down or, you know, in the case of Octagon Square cards, knows he's down, he bites down a little bit more and throws home runs. And against Yonah Spagard, a guy who is so safe defensively, you're just setting up his reactive takedown. You're setting up his ability to duck under one sloppy punch that he can take you down and no longer is he working for it. So like pretty much the only people who have given Yonah Spagard a lot of trouble in Octagon are people who can deal with that grappling, right? Like it was a Kaiki Bre too. Nope. Yeah, Kaiki Bre too. And it all comes back in, doesn't it? Yeah, I feel like we just were talking, was it Kaiki Bre too who dealt with Yonah Spagard and gave him that's what the decision lost? My remembering that, right? Severino, Severino. Severino. Oh, Severino. The fighter.

24:30Yeah, yeah, Severino. And that was a banem weight if I'm not mistaken. And so like, you could deal with the grappling of Magarden, like honestly, Magarden might have won that fight anyway. But like you have to be able to deal with his pressure in his takedowns in order to be him in a fight. And like his, his good as Rochelle is and like how fun he is to watch. I don't think he's got the right kind of skill set to deal with somebody like Yonah Spagard. So yeah, I'm gonna go with Magard here. I think that number probably could and will become much higher. All right, Magard. The shark is the play here. All right, so he's got Magard. He's got Ryumba. He's got Lingal. He is got Przvik. He is got Garba. He's got Lightning Round Place. That Ben Boomb Power. Yeah, and if you're looking for a way to get the Garba and Magard parlay to be just like, maybe needs a little bit to get across the finish line to get it to plus money here. But if you do, Nev Kinahan is probably the right one. And if you're looking for her on the books and you're just hearing me say this name, the name is spelled more ridiculously than sorry.

25:32I don't mean insults you Irish fans, but like I was interviewing her and I had to listen to an announcer say her name and I was like, there ain't no way that's how you pronounce that. But it's N-I-A-N-H and that's Nev, like it rhymes with Steve. That Nev Kinahan, but she is a very fun kickboxer out of England or out of UK. UK, sorry, out of UK. Yeah, you can. Yeah, and you know, just electric two and no since coming over to MMA, looks like the real deal is definitely figuring out the whole partial of a game in Octagon is building you're the right way. So she's betting off the negative 360 could help you spruce up that part of the game that I mentioned before. And then for another dog on my take, I'm gonna take Nathan Hayward would. He didn't look great in his debut in Octagon, but like in his record kind of stinks, which is why you're getting them at post 185. But like if you watch it skill for skill, his skill looks so much better than the record indicates. So I like, I think he could probably surprise some people here. So that's once again, that's Nathan Hayward and Nev Kinahan is my two lightning grub please.

26:35And he's picking against the Canadian. I should add with the Nev play as well. So not surprising, not surprising there. All right, your Sephiroth's gone. It should be a fine watch and a fun bet. We'll be in the discord sports, gammapog is the com slash discord. You can hit us up on the in the comment section, YouTube, Spotify, those good places. SGP and MMA, gummy runs our account on Twitter. He's at gummy real and I'm at Jeff Fox brighter, at Jeff Fox brighter on the Instagram. moneymma.subst.com is the substack that I run free subscription. You can enter my weekly UFC pick him contest. Check that out. Tell the people why they should check out top turtle podcasts this week that you host Gumby. Yeah, we got an interview with Sean King who's going to be making his UFC debut. And then we're also talking to Melissa Amaya who's about to make her UFC debut as part of the ultimate fighter finals. Nice. So check out top turtle always regardless of who's on it. You can check us out at sportsgammapog is.com. Sportsgammapog is the com slash patron for bonus content. Sportsgammapog is the com slash store football.

27:35At checkout, we'll get you 25% off. All right, we're set for the regional stuff for now. Now it's all UFC centric the rest of the week. Two UFC's any content series coming up after gummy says bye bye to you. All right, I'm Dina Gaby-Rillin. He is Jeff Mumbai a Fox and we will see you tomorrow.