Pre-Market Report – Thursday 2 April: US markets rise | Caution ahead of POTUS

Good morning and welcome to the Marcus today pre-market podcast. My name is Henry Jennings.

It is Thursday the 2nd of April and as usual with all the information contained in this

podcast it is general advice only. So please do your own research, contact your own financial

advisor regarding any of the thoughts, ideas or insights in this podcast. All right,

last night we had another bounce or a continuation of that bounce in the US market, but not quite

so convincing. Of course, we do have Donald Trump addressing the US nation later this morning

and that around midday. So that is going to be interesting. But as far as the scores and

the doors go, the Dow Jones up 224 points or 0.48% 46,566 higher 4162 up a lower of only 55

up. So pretty much in the middle for Ditto and that stack was up 1.2% 250 points to 21,841.

Yes, and P500 up 0.7% in the middle for Ditto. 47 points to 65 75 with the Russell 2000

up 0.6 16 points to 25 12 and the VIX volatility index. Well, it was unchanged pretty much down

1.8%. So the VIX still around 25 points. So it's still not showing exactly huge confidence.

In fact, looking at the prediction market, which has been signs of some early betting on

various things political and war like the prediction market is showing there is a 16% chance

that the straight of humours will be open by the end of April. That is down quite a lot.

So from recent times. So there's still no real news apart from what's been in the press

in terms of the tit for tat. Trump saying one minute that they will pull out and don't

care about the straight. The next minute they're saying that they need to cease fire is dependent

on the straight being open and Iran saying, who? I'm not sure who you're talking to.

But anyway, we might get more clarity from the president at his speech. European markets

were better. They were up quite strongly. Stock 600 up 2.5% FTSE up 1.9, Germany up 2.7, France

up 2.1, Spain up 3.1. But I would suggest that the thing to look for is the oil price.

That is the dependent thing. The most important thing at the moment, Brent crude fell 3.3%

$3.42 to $100.6. Still above 100 bucks. WTI interestingly only fell around $1.9. So

that is actually now more expensive than Brent. So we have seen that gap shrink considerably.

In fact, it's now gone and reversed. So that is kind of interesting. European markets

good. Asian markets also good. Japan was up nearly 5% yesterday. All these markets that

are very, very dependent on oil and oil flows. It's not just about pricing. It is actually

about oil flows and whether you can actually get your hands on the products, because that

is the physical market that is different to the financial pricing structure. China, though,

up 1.5% of Japan as I say, up 5% Hong Kong, up 2% and Bitcoin, up 0.2, the Aussie dollar

6926. So that's a little bit firmer. And the US dollar index slipping again, 99.58. These

will be the casualties of any piece. Will be the US dollar where money has been hiding. And

also, of course, oil and gas stocks. As far as the bond yields go, not a lot of action there,

30 years down 0.8 basis points to 4.906, 10 years up 0.2, 4.325 Aussie, 10, 3.81 at 1.4 basis points.

And the Aussie, 10, 4.955, down 0.8 of a basis point. So not much happening there in terms of

the bond markets, but as I say, we do have the big speech later today. In the US, in a little

more detailed industrial sector stocks, we're leading the S&P 500 higher, 9 out of the 11 sectors,

we're in positive territory, industrials with the top performers with a 1.9% rise communication

services, 1.8 and materials, IT and consumer discretionary also gains more than 1% energy and

consumer staples, i.e. defensive, lost 3.7% and 0.3% respectively. We also had some economic

data out last night from the US and that wasn't bad. I have to say, we did see some the ISM

manufacturing topping estimates. That was for March and we also saw some retail sales numbers

out for February. That's pre-war of course and they were okay. So the US economy is still

trundling along pretty well. Other news SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO. So that is

going to be interesting, creating a combined entity that he valued at the time at 1.25 trillion.

That's Mr Musks AI. So it merged with SpaceX and it's looking for a 1.25, 1.5 trillion dollar

valuation. So that will be very interesting. All right, looking at the stocks in the US,

Apple a day up 0.7, Microsoft down 0.2, Amazonians up 1.1, Alphabeti Spaghetti up 3.4 meters,

Scanbook up 1.2, Tesla up 2.6, chip stocks doing better in video up 0.8, Broadcom up 1.3, ASMR

up 2.9, Intel having a cracking day up 8.8%, was that Intel that announced more job losses? I think

it was. Bank of America in the financials up 1.1, Wells Fargo at 1.2, Goldman's up 1.7 and Morgan

Stanley up 1. In the CDIs and dualistids, life 360 up 1% James Hardy up 1.3, ResMed

down 0.7 block, down 1.1 and Tillix down 3.4%. Casting our BDIs across to the commodities space,

Brent Crude as I said earlier fell 3.3% to 100.6 WTI down 0.9% to 101.9 gold, heading back towards

that 5,000 level up 1.9%, 89 bucks, 47.58, Platinum up 0.4, Silver not doing much, US Copper not doing

much, LME Copper up 1%, Nickel up 0.8, LME, Aluminum up 1.3, Zinc up 2.3, Lead up 2, Tun up 1.6,

I and all cracking day yesterday 2.4% higher to 108. Coking coal also better, Uranium better as

well 1.2% higher, Lithium eased in terms of overseas miners, BHP was up 1.1%, Rio up 1.6,

Valet up 0.6, Anglo American and Copper stocks, shooting the lights out, Anglo up 5.2%

and to Fagasta up 4.7, Freeport, Mac Moran up 4.1 and Capstone up 7.9. It does look as if they're

getting a little bit carried away, with oil at 100 bucks, not sure global growth is going to be

that strong, but anyway, nice to see, Uranium stocks, Chemical up 2.3 and Next Gen down 0.1, Goldies,

Newmon up 5.1%, Barak 3.2, Goldfield 7.2, so the Gold March continues, Signal Lithium down 4.1%,

and US oil stocks crunched, Exxon down 5.2, Chevron down 4.6, Woodside,

Askeeping by the skin of its Chini-Chin-Chin down 0.8% there.

All right, turning our attention to our market, because that's what we look at,

at least it's in our time zone, US futures haven't seen them as yet, but spy futures closed

up 19 or 0.2%. I have to say yesterday's 190 point rally did seem a little bit overs,

but happy to take it, it was up 2.2% resources, the stars of the show up 4.1%, banks were solid,

1.8% higher, the tech sector 3.5% higher. We do have a February trade balance and job vacancies,

they will be released at 11.30, don't forget, we also have some data out from the US on Friday,

our market of course closed tomorrow and closed Monday, so we will be going to Marcus Light tomorrow,

and I've actually included some water cooler suggestions in my article this morning, because I know

everyone loves the water cooler suggestions, so enjoy. As far as news goes from our market,

let's have a little look what's out there, not a lot out there to be honest this morning.

The ASX has published the ASIC inquiry final report, the key observations are consistent with

the interim report and include that the resilience of critical market infrastructure has been

compromised. Governments arrangements failed to provide the necessary focus, ASX lacks the

aspiration to be a steward of critical market, it's pretty scathing. After say Treasury,

wine estate is upgraded to neutral from cell at UBS, target decreased however to 4 bucks from

4.75, we've also got Paragon Healthcare which my wife used to work for, completes previously announced

acquisition of PT Hydu Medical Indonesia, and TEPA Minerals, we own this one in the small cap portfolio,

has updated the total mineral resource for the Minyari project to 69 million tonnes at 1.33 grams

a ton of gold. They do the maths, that means it contains 2.9 million ounces of gold, or 3.6 million

ounces at 1.62 grams gold equivalent, so that is interesting. Index requires 60%, the remaining 60%

stake in crux analytic for 23 million bucks, what else have we got? Northern Star is to launch

a non-market share buyback of up to 500 million bucks, after saying Northern Star looking pretty good

at the moment, very, very oversold, Northern Star resources, reports preliminary gold sold for

March quarter, total 381,000 ounces. Forecast deliver, it's revised FY26 production guidance

above 1.5 million ounces, so that is good, but that is dependent on the mill throughput at KCGM.

Now the problem with Northern Star has not been the all-body, the problem is creaking an old

machinery. I know that some days when I get out of bed. All right, that is about it for me today,

all eyes will be on Mr Trump and his speech to the nation, we of course had albany's last

light addressing our nation, so that went down well, and we will see how things plan out, I'll be

doing the members exclusive podcast, I'll probably do that a little later this morning given

the Trump speech, so I'll wait to see what transpires from that before giving the members exclusive

podcast, and I suspect our market will be quite circumspect and quite guarded with lack of conviction,

especially ahead of four days where let's face it, anything could happen over Easter,

so let's wait and see what Donald says. Thanks again, thanks for your support,

have a great Easter break if I don't talk to you before then and remember, double demerit points

to apply, that is of course if you can be bothered to get the car out of the garage, although

it was nice to see the petrol price fall considerably on the back of that tax cut as I was driving

around last night, naughty me, thanks again.