Prop Points | March 23, 2026

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This is prop point on Vs in these sports betting network.

Welcome into the Monday edition of prop points here on Vs in these sports betting network Nick Whalen Jeff Erickson hanging out with you.

A lot to recap Jeff from a busy opening weekend in the NCAA tournament will get you caught up on everything from Sunday's game.

We're going to start to take an early look ahead at the sweet 16 and we'll have our friend Ben Stevens from the network joining us at 130 Eastern to get all of his early

leans for the sweet 16. We can't more change the NBA job. We've been all college hoops on this show for the most part over the last few

days, but we got nine games in the association coming our way tonight. So we'll talk about a certain look at Donchich prop.

You should be targeting in a what should be a very fun Lakers pistons game and then we'll get back to baseball.

We are just a couple days away from opening things up on Wednesday night. We'll get to some of Jeff's favorite MLB player futures.

Talk about some strikeout leader props that will round out the show talking a little baseball.

Just a reminder, if you don't catch us live, if you want to re-listen to the show, just search prop points, search Vs in wherever you get your

podcast. You can find us on Apple. You can find us on Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. And of course you get full

show replays over on the fantastic Vs and watch app Jeff NCAA tournament. I know you were traveling this weekend, but you were in the

best possible place to watch the NCAA tournament while traveling, which was Las Vegas Nevada doing some expert baseball drafts out

there this weekend. I think we need to start with what is probably the upside of the tournament.

I think we need to start with what is going on in the tournament that is not featured a ton of these big upsets so far, but Iowa, take it down Florida last night.

First sweet 16 appearance for Iowa since all the way back in 1999 are wonderful producer Michael Cohen not even born at that

point. He has never witnessed the Iowa Hawkeyes, Jeff in the sweet 16, but I thought this was a really, really impressive win for Iowa.

This was a wire to wire you knew right away. Maybe they're not going to win this game, but they're going to compete Florida has no chance to cover this.

They're going to double digit lead in the first half. They're able to weather the storm as Florida inevitably rallied back, but maybe the single most impressive

aspect to me, Jeff, is Iowa winning this game with better starts going O of nine from three.

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, this is just such a masterclass in coaching by Ben McCollum, just the whole transition of this team to being a far, far better defensive team.

Here in McCaffrey, they are a high paced high scoring, but high points, allowing team. They always fizzled out in the tournament.

Here they got they get to the sweet 16. I mean, AC Earl is smiling right now Roy marble is smiling right now.

So good good good on Iowa for that to do that there. What a game. I mean the fact that the fact that they could go with getting so little production from

starts starts making the great the pass at the end of the game to set up that game winning three. I thought that was impressive.

You know, not forcing it, you know, a lot of a lot of times players will continue to force any kind of did and he shot nine threes, but that that's their game.

I mean, that's that's what they do usually with them, but yeah, very impressive game all the way around Florida rallies. They get that that rally to go ahead by four points.

I think we're texting on our little group text that we do for the show on and talking about, okay, here comes the Florida run.

And boom, they turn around and go back and Iowa with stands that run and goes back ahead and they win the game and just really impressive all the way around.

Great defensive sequence at the end and just making Florida pay play their pace. I thought that was very impressive.

I have no idea why Florida had three guys in the back court trying to deny that pass to to starts, which was a really good imbalance pass.

I think the more college groups you watch relative to the NBA, you, you do realize that those are not guaranteed.

And you know, a nice pass to lead Bennett starts up the court, you know, the Florida defender kind of tried to cheat it and pick it off.

And all of a sudden you just have a three on two go on the other way and starts, of course, makes the right decision to get that ball to the corner.

So I want to shout out a couple of things that I saw on Twitter last night, Jeff for one.

Chris, the bear, Felica tweeted out that now only one defending champion since 2007, which was the second Florida run has advanced past the sweet 16.

And that was, of course, Yukon, the year that they went back to back not long ago.

Every other defending champion has lost on opening weekend. So Florida, of course, adding to that tally.

And then Jared person on Twitter at an interesting notes, you know, on Iowa, Nebraska, which is of course our sweet 16 matchup now.

This is the first big 10 versus big 10 matchup in the second weekend or later since Michigan State Wisconsin in 2000.

That was a final four game. It's the first all big 10 meeting in the sweet 16 since Purdue and Indiana all the way back in 1980.

How have we not had a big 10 versus big 10 sweet 16 game in 40 plus years?

It's just wrong. It's just wrong, but it just shows that the big 10 is kind of struggled a little bit there.

And they they they have had a lot of high profile flops, you know, and that they've kind of turned around that narrative in the last couple of years, but still they're still not winning championships.

And that that's it is kind of interesting to see that it could change this year. I mean, they've already changed it in football. They're they're now the football conference there, but we'll see about that.

But yeah, we almost had two big 10 versus big 10 matchups there.

UCLA fell apart in the second half against Yukon.

I went Nebraska. We've seen this or recently where they set back time is a 57 52 game. I will won that game. I got admit, I underestimated Nebraska this weekend going into this weekend.

I thought they might even lose their first game. This was the Nebraska that we saw in the beginning part of the season, Nick.

Absolutely. And you know, probably my worst pick among many very bad picks in the visa betting contest was Troy to cover that that round of 64 game against Nebraska.

Yeah, I was I was lamenting that with with Dustin sweetlson on his show last night. He was basically like, look, if you and I were aligned at any picks, me and Dustin that is like that was just a death now for for anything that happened over the weekend.

But yeah, Nebraska flip the switch man. I mean, we talked about it last week going into the tournament, you know, since mid January, this was a team that was outside the top 100 in offense and just felt like they may be peaked a little bit too early.

They had that incredible run to start the year. And I thought they would be really vulnerable. Now we're looking at a scenario, Jeff, where we are guaranteed to get either Nebraska or Iowa into the elite eight.

I think you look at the bottom half of that region where you have Houston and Illinois going at it only one of those teams can advance.

They're probably crying no fair a little bit, but I do like the path for either of those teams, right? You have to respect certainly what Iowa's done. You have to respect what Nebraska has done over these last two games.

But with the winner of that Houston Illinois game, I think is really, really well positioned right now.

They are, they are, although I'll say this Illinois, they split with Nebraska earlier this season, Nebraska won in Illinois, Illinois won in Nebraska.

And that actually Illinois win over Nebraska was kind of like the start of Nebraska's, I wouldn't say downfall, but slowing down, you know, they start off the year 20 and oh, obviously, Illinois went into Lincoln and actually pretty much handle them that whole game.

That was one of the better wins of the season for Illinois, the way they came in and handled that there. That was a tough week for Nebraska played Michigan in Illinois in the same week there. So very and very excited about that, that Houston Illinois game too, by the way, I think that's going to be just a blast.

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I think we got to talk a little St. John's Jeff that that's one of the highlights from the weekend. I think some skepticism for this Johnny's team, you know, they run through the big east tournament and then, you know, still kind of wondering, alright, what is the true upside here, but St. John's punches it's take it much like Iowa first sweet 16 appearance since 1999.

I'm really impressed with the St. John's team in the variety of ways they can win, Jeff, we know they're going to bring it defensively, we know they're going to bring it on the glass, you know, they almost have kind of an intimidation factor.

I think that's working for them right now, and I think that could carry over to this Duke matchup, but they took 35 threes in this Kansas game, they didn't shoot it well, they very rarely shoot it from three, and it doesn't seem to matter.

I think that makes St. John's a little bit more dangerous to me, where they're not one of these teams going up against Duke, where you say, man, they're going to have to hit 11 or 12 threes to hang around.

Yeah, that's right, I thought St. John's was under seated, you know, I thought going in that they were not a five, I thought they were at least a four if not a three, the way they handled Connecticut and the big east final.

I absolutely thought they deserved a little bit better, I understand, you know, some of their losses, they did lose by 30 to Connecticut earlier, but they lost a couple of their big showdowns in non conference play Iowa state, they lost to, although that was a one point game, lost Alabama, lost to Auburn, lost a Kentucky, just don't play the SEC apparently.

Yeah, that's just the takeaway there for, I think for St. John's for the Johnny's there, but yeah, hey, they stifled KU defense, you know, their defense just inbounding the ball was difficult for KU for a while, and then, and yet they, because St. John's was throwing up all those threes and not connecting, they kept KU close in that game to the point where they needed that game winning Leo.

It's kind of a reverse of the the round one game, you know, for Kansas where they led throughout all of a sudden they let go of the rope and it becomes close late, you know, felt like St. John's was going to run away and then becomes a one possession game in the final couple minutes.

Last thing I want to hit you here, Jeff, to to lead off the show, we do have some news out of the NFL, nothing too crazy, you know, no, no, Jalen Wano landing in Denver or anything like that, but we have a new highest paid wide receiver in the NFL, that is Jackson Smith, the Jigba come into agreement on terms with the Seattle Seahawks earlier today four years, nearly 169 mil for JSN, so that's a little over 42 million per year on the AAV 120 million guaranteed.

Again, one of those contracts that you see come through you're kind of staggered by the numbers, but we know this works in the NFL is the cap continues to rise whoever that next receiver to get paid probably breaks that record, maybe it's puked a kua for the Rams, but any real takeaways for you with the Seahawks locking up JSN.

Well, they did they lost a number of players in free agency, so I think they had knowing that they had to do this deal here that there are others that are due theirs as well, so this is the first to probably three or four big contracts for existing Seattle Seahawks players.

The market always gets set, it seems that wide receiver just have to kind of keep on resetting the new standard, it was Jaisons turn, so we'll see, we'll see what I wonder what this means for Pickens and Dallas, you know, obviously he's got the franchise tax laptop, they don't have to do a deal, but they obviously want to do a deal here.

They say they want to do a deal, but I think the question with the Dallas Cowboys is always, okay, are you serious about negotiations here because we've seen how they've handled these situations in years past, but not surprise that Dallas is dragging its feet and now all the sudden the market has been reset, so good news overall, I think if you're George Pickens right now, we're going to head over to the NBA when we come back, we'll tell you how you should be betting Lakers pistons, what to do is first heat tonight on a nine game NBA slate, get up the association coming up next time.

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Welcome back to prop points Jeff Erickson, Nick Whalen, here we are with RotoWire dot com. There are nine games on the NBA slate tonight, Nick.

As you alluded to, we we've been taking a little bit of a back burner approach to the NBA and why not? I mean, it's it's tournament week, you know, we're dealing with a lot of player teams sitting players, but hey, a lot of inventory tonight starting off the Lakers pistons game tonight.

It should be really good. You know, look at donchets is not going to have to service suspension. They rescinded his technical fall against the magic from over the weekend.

Big game coming up here. Lakers are one and a half point favorite in this one here. What's your take on this game?

Yeah, I mean, it's a little bit of a sloppy slate overall, Jeff, where we have nine games, but again, six of those nine games have a spread of at least 12 and a half. So a lot of good team on bad team matchups.

We do not have that here. This is pretty easily our closest line game of the night. And of course, the headline on the Detroit side of things is OK, cutting hands still out and definitely with that collapse long.

They're still without Isaiah Stewart as well. They're able to get by so far in these first couple first couple games without Cade.

But, you know, that that injury happened in the midst of a back to back against the wizards and then they played golden state after that. So that they're yet to really be tested.

I think in this this post Cade environment as long as that last. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been the hottest team in the NBA right there with the Atlanta Hawks and the San Antonio Spurs. They've won nine in a row.

They've won 11 of their last 12. A lot of impressive wins. I will say in that span. Like you look at what Atlanta has been doing over the last few weeks, not to take anything away from the Southeast leading Atlanta Hawks, but a lot of cupcakes.

Yeah, they're beating a lot of teams. They should beat the Lakers to beat a lot of quality opponents. I think sentiment is starting to change a little bit on this Lakers team.

I will say this though. This is a tough travel spot for LA 5th consecutive road game. They have a road trip that ends Wednesday in Indiana. So they don't even get to go home after this game.

They've been all over the country over the last week and a half. So I think that's why we're seeing such a close line here, even without Cade cutting him.

I'm going to attack this game in the prop market, Jeff, and take a number that I never thought I would take, but Luke Adonchich over four and a half threes.

And in say number is plus 125 tonight at the draft King sportsbook. I'm going to give you the numbers for the last nine games for Luke Adonchich, which of course have all been Lakers wins 40 points per game.

8.4 rebounds per game, 7.4 assists per game. He's taking 14 and a half threes per game in that span and hitting almost six per game.

So you have a Detroit team that is generally good at limiting threes, but Lucas match up roof to me at this point. He is just in a special zone over these last couple of weeks.

And I think the Lakers and Luca right now they kind of sense that they're rolling. They want to keep this momentum going. I don't see any reason why we see reduced volume tonight for Luca and what should be a close game.

Yeah, totally agree. I have to say I feel really bad for Maverick fans watching this stretch here by Luca just knowing like this could have been them.

And you know, knowing what they got and what they didn't get in that trade there. Just just absolutely tough. I hate to relitigate it there, but when it's in your face like that, it's really tough.

They got Washington Wizards center and three Davis in that trade. Yes, they did. Yes, they did.

Thunder at 76ers. Jalen Williams returning for OKC first action since February 11th. You got a lean on this game. You got a bet that you like in this game.

You know, there's not a whole lot here. I think it's an interesting one to highlight though. You know, the numbers actually up from from open. We're up to 16 and a half now in favor of OKC on the road.

And I think it is worth noting that the Thunder have been a better team without Jalen Williams this season. He has not played overly well when he's been on the court is three point shot is pretty much evaporated. So I'll be very curious to see with like 10 games now to ramp up before the playoffs, like do we start to see the old version of Jalen Williams. Is this enough time for him to get fully ramped up before the postseason starts.

They've won a few games of late, but they've mostly just been beating up on some true tanking teams. Still no Maxi, no Paul George, no Embed Paul George, by the way, is eligible to return as early as Wednesday against Chicago. But if I had to play this on the side, I guess I'd probably lay the 16 and a half with OKC. I don't feel very strongly about it. As you could tell, OKC is struggling a bit on offense relative to their standards, but they are back to being the number one defense in the NBA by a good margin. They're about four points per 100.

Better than the next best defense over the last 10 games. So could be a spot to me to where you look at the under 225 and a half just assuming that the sixers with all those absences may struggle to get 200 points.

All right, let's talk spurs and heat that the East is just so jam packed from there's there's six teams packed from five through 10 within two games of each other heat or in that morass. They've lost four in a row, but they're getting healthier for tonight's game against the spurs.

Yeah, this is one where we definitely have to keep an eye on the injury report. And you know, Miami should have Norman Powell, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Hakez all out there, a couple names for San Antonio.

That we've been monitoring sound like Stefan Castle is going to play went through shoot around this morning, Devon Vaselle trending toward being more of a true game time call.

I think this is a tough game to evaluate. It's in Miami. Spurs are still favored on the road.

The C team has been good in this spot this year. They're seven and two ATS as a home dog on the year. They're covering at nearly a 70% clip when they're coming off of a straight up loss, which they are.

Well, you still got this first team Jeff, I think I don't know if we are generally talking about just how well they continue to play. I mean, they are 21 and two in their last 23 games, number one in offense in the NBA over the last 10.

They're number two in that rating in that span. So a little bit of a tricky game to evaluate, where it's just so hard to pick against an Antonio right now, but you have some trends that suggest it could be a Miami spot.

I think deer and fox is somebody I would look to in the prop market, you know, I wrote this one down when I thought there was a better chance to find Castle might not play, but the over 28 and a half PRA points rebounds assist for Fox is something that jumped out.

It's a big pace up spot with the heat playing at the second fastest pace in the NBA Miami bottom five in production allowed to point guard specifically this season. So I think this should be still a good spot for him, even with Castle out there.

And this is another one where I would look at the under Jeff, the numbers climbed to 241 and a half, you know, he do play fast, but they're still a really good defensive team. Obviously, we know what San Antonio is capable of defensively. They give you nothing at the RAM. They're an elite transition defense. And Miami's been one of the better half court defenses in the NBA.

So a little bit of a stronger lead to me on that under 241 and a half.

All right, very good. Take a look at Rockets, Bull Rockets, Bulls next, but first, Rockets are for everyone. This is for better. The Vs and March betting challenge is still going and it's not too late to get in on the action.

We're down to the sweet 16 in this round. You have to make five picks spreads or totals. There's still plenty of prizes still on the line, including $2,000 for the overall champion.

And if you have a free edge boost account, every prize doubles head to visa.com slash contest and get your picks in now. All right, Nick, Rockets, Bulls.

Houston's on the road. This seems though like a little bit of a schedule reprieve. What say you in this game?

Yeah, this is another interesting one. Rockets, eight and a half point favorites in Chicago tonight. And like you said, obviously, they're on the road. But Houston has played an extremely difficult schedule over the last few weeks. They haven't played overly well during that span. They've tumbled down the standings in the west. I mean, they're back to being the foreseed, but they're tied with Denver and Minnesota. They were the six a couple of nights ago.

So that that stranglehold that they felt like they had on the three seed. Obviously, they've given up that to the L.A. Lakers. But again, a ton of quality opponents of late 12 of their last 13 games have come against teams that are at least in the play in, you know, like we're talking like Portland, Golden State teams like that.

And the majority of those games have come against legitimate playoff teams in both conferences on the Chicago side of things. Still a bunch of injuries. But with a healthy Josh Gidey, we've seen this bulls team hang around with some quality opponents that they have struggled for the most part when they run into the truly.

Elite teams, but they're at least able to to avoid getting, you know, completely crushed. Chicago also has a huge rest advantage here. They have not played since Thursday. And we're starting to see some better defense out of this bulls team. There are top 12 defense in the NBA over the last 10 games.

They play fast offensively. They are not very effective offensively, even with Gidey running the show. So this is one where there are kind of some competing thoughts for me on the side.

I think the rest advantage specifically for Chicago makes this more of a stay away for me. I would look at Reed Shepard in the prop market, the over 20 and a half points plus assists is minus 105 over at draft Kings.

This bulls team bottom five in the NBA in assists allowed they've been in that zone the entire season. And this requires a little bit of a leap here, Jeff, but Reed Shepard is now in the starting lineup. He's been in the lineup the last two games. They've been reluctant to hand him that kind of workload.

But he played 37 minutes in their last game. He doesn't need to play 37 minutes to go over here, but we can just get like 31 32 minutes. I think that's sufficient against what to me is still probably a little bit of an overrated defense when you look at that recent sample compared to the full season sample for the bulls.

All right. Let's talk about the warriors and maps. The warriors. They're in limbo Nick. It's just they they're stuck in the plan. There's no chance of them getting out of that spot or going into a tanking spot.

Curry's still out. No whorfer, you know, every once in a while we get poor Zingas popping up and showing why he could people think highly of them. But what do you expect against them against the tanking Mavericks team?

I think this is one where the maps can hang around. And the number would imply that games in Dallas, maps are just a two and a half point dog. And I think the maps are tanking beautifully right now. They're doing it, you know, ethically, they're still playing their guys, Cooper flag is playing a full complement of minutes every night.

But they're still finding ways to lose games, you know, they'll mix in a win every now and then just to keep some of these teams honest, but they position themselves now with the sixth worst record in the NBA, which I think it's just fine, given where they were, you know, two months ago.

I can't get at this game tonight. I lean over 230 and a half seven Dallas games in a row. Jeff have gone over this number. We have two teams that are 22nd and 25th respectively in defensive rating. It's a pace up spot for the Warriors with the maps playing at a top five pace.

And then one prop that I'll give you here before we turn it over to our friend Ben Stevens PJ Washington over 21 and a half points plus boards minus 110, averaging almost 35 minutes of late, averaging closer to 30 points plus rebounds over his last four games.

All right, very good. Good props there. He also likes to heal Alexander Walker over 19 and a half points. We're looking for one more next props. Ben Stevens joins us next on the progressive guest line. This is prop points.

We're going to waste any time. We're going right out to the progressive guest line to bring in one of our good pals. You know, I'm, of course, from the network, co host of live bet Saturday here on V. Sin, the great Ben Stevens at Ben Scott Stevens on Twitter. Big 10 Ben joining us on the guest slide. Ben appreciate you giving us some of your time. I know we're coming off of what I assume is your favorite weekend of the game.

I assume is your favorite weekend of the entire sports calendar and we have what maybe your favorite matchup of the college basketball season now set up for us in the sweet 16 on Thursday.

That is Iowa and Nebraska in the South region Nebraska currently sitting as a one and a half point favorite over at drafting. So we just want to let you go on this matchup. Ben anything you want to say about how these teams got here, how you think this game plays out on Thursday night with the spot in the elite eight on the line.

Nick, let's start with the historical context, of course, Nebraska. Prior to what happened on Thursday against Troy had never won a game in the NCAA tournament. The only high major program that had that distinction of which nobody ever wants. So it took them 86 years to win a game in the big dance. Then they win two and they see this week 16 for the first time ever.

But what Iowa did against Florida, the reigning national champs on a Sunday evening in Tampa, maybe even more improbable than that in their first year in Iowa City under Ben McCollum and for the first time this century.

The Hawkeyes are playing in the sweet 16. Their first birth into the round of 16 since 1999. So Nick, when you put both of those things by themselves, the individual historical achievements for both the basketball and Iowa men's basketball.

They're ridiculous. It's rare. It's infrequent. The fact now that the Huskers and the Hawkeyes, the rivals and the border that share a border are going to now match up in the sweet 16. It's unfathomable. Truthfully, I never thought that I would see the day that Nebraska men's basketball and Iowa men's basketball will be playing each other for a birth in the elite eight this deep into a tournament to find for its madness. But of course, that is why we love it for this individual matchup third meeting this year between Nebraska and Iowa.

The first one in Iowa City was the Hawkeyes first win against the rain foe in nearly two years. It was the first ranked victory for Iowa under Ben McCollum. It felt like a sign of the times that he was moving this program in the appropriate and proper direction, low scoring game, 57, 52, Iowa winning slightly outright as a home underdog.

The second game was the final one of the regular season in Lincoln had to go to OT despite the Huskers leading late and it was 84 75. My initial thought is that we're going to see some more points despite the slow pace of Iowa than that pregame total of 133 and a hook.

And if you were just asking me neutral site between Nebraska and Iowa, whose style of play I preferred more, it would probably be the corn Huskers, but a neutral site game in the South region in Houston,

and I think both fan bases are going to travel like crazy to be there for this historic feet and moment on Thursday night. I'm not sure I'm going to have a pick, frankly, I think I'll just be sitting back watching and joining and scratching my head that this is even plausible.

Yeah, we're truly living in the big 10 upside down, you know, Indiana is the defending national champion in football 16, but can't sniff a top 25 victory Nebraska is in the sweet 16. It's amazing.

The Houston Vintational though, Houston gets the sweet 16 at home. I cannot wait for that game against Illinois. I think Illinois is to me is the most dangerous three seed out there.

Super talented team, but man, what a tough spot. What do you like in that game?

Yeah, Jeff, I have Houston going to my final four. It was a matchup that I predicted to be that two three split in the sweet 16 and to your point, Houston playing at home in the city of Houston is going to be a monumental advantage for Calvin Samson and his coups.

A lot of the betting market, especially the sharps on the circus sports book 96% of that betting handle early back in Houston as the ever so slight favorite against Illinois.

For me, the question is the fighting a line eye defensively. They were all through their opening weekend against pen and VCU, but does Illinois in a dog fight type of game have the defensive efficiency when they do not turn you over whatsoever and Houston is really good at taking care of the basketball to begin with.

Can they get the stops when needed most Illinois is one of if not the most efficient offense we have seen in the three decades nearly of the Ken Palm era.

I do not doubt they can score even on a Houston defense, but I think the Cougs have the offense to be a final four team and a national championship contender led by Kingston Fleming's their freshman point guard who is one of the best in the country.

So can Illinois get those stops and what the odds makers are expected to be a possession or a two possession game. I favor Houston. I have Houston in the elite eight and into the final four.

It's a really difficult match up for a fighting a line eye defense that has been their weakness throughout this college basketball season.

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And Steven's big 10 Ben, as we know him, co host of live that Saturday here on Visa and joining us on the progressive guest line. So Ben, it sounds like you are, you know, kind of holding off on on making a pick on Iowa Nebraska, which is very much understandable.

We just got your side in Houston, Illinois, when you look at the eight games that are coming our way on Thursday and Friday of the ones that we have not hit yet, which one is the most perplexing for you, which one are you having the toughest decision on whether it comes to settling on a total or side.

Yeah, it's a really great question, Nick. I think one that really stands out to me is the very first game in the sweet 16. It's Purdue in Texas. I have a ticket on the boy, the makers from last April 11 months ago at a 13 to one price to what a national championship in this matchup should favor the boilers to really good offenses and what Texas and Purdue have done.

Of course, the long horns got hot at the right time after dropping five of six to and out the year, including in the SEC tournament in the opening round to Ole Miss, but it's an offense led by Sean Miller.

But I think it's a really good matchup for Purdue in terms of what Texas does elite offensively slower pace that goes right into the calling card for Matt painter and his boiler makers.

And when you look at the spread six and a half seven and a half in favor of Purdue and you look at a total Nick at 148 in a hook, I naturally lean to the over again slower pace.

They're not exactly running gun top 75 tempos in the country, but both incredibly efficient offensively in both teams struggle on the defensive side of the floor.

It should lead to points at least about 150. In fact, Ken Palm projects an 82 74 win for Purdue. That's 156 total points.

And the odds makers often follow what Ken Palm does a little bit different here, of course, in a tournament with our tight turnarounds. And yet you see 148 and a half.

I really want to lean on the over, but because of where the odds market is at this moment, it scares me ever so slightly.

I don't think I'll get to the window and bet the over 148 in a hook for the first game of the second week out of the big dance.

So speaking of overs, we have life deaths, death taxes and Arkansas overs almost all the time. It seems like here they hit that over in the high point game.

Obviously Arizona's defense is a different brand of defense there. Do you like that total 167 and a half.

Yeah, I think it really goes correlate a Jeff to who you expect to win this basketball game. Arizona is my national champion.

And for the reasons that you just highlighted the wild cats are a very different defense efficiently on that side of the ball.

The maybe Arkansas has seen in the SEC all year or certainly so far in the NCAA tournament. If you think the cats win.

If you think Tommy Lloyd and his team get close to covering is a seven and a half point favorite against John Calipari in the razor backs.

I have to naturally think the game stays under Arizona elite defensively top three defense in the country.

But they play faster than most of those grind it out defensive styles that you would expect.

Of course, Arkansas is a top 20 team in terms of pace, the fifth most efficient offense in all of college basketball this year.

But Arkansas is not necessarily a team that loves to shoot the three. They shoot it well when they decide to.

That's where Arizona makes things very difficult in the interior against their post defense with guys like Mokrivas and Tobay Awaka that really control the rim incredibly well.

I think Arizona wins this game. I think it's a really good style to kind of stifle what the hogs want to do.

And thus Jeff with that 167 and a hook. I actually lean to the under for that match up between Arizona and Arkansas.

All right, Ben, we got about 45 seconds left between the other two one seeds still alive, Michigan, a 10 and a half point favorite against Bama, Duke, a six and a half point favorite against St. John's.

Which of those teams is more vulnerable to you right now heading into the sweet 16.

I think it's very much Duke in their matchup against St. John's because I think the red storm have enough defensively to kind of confound things for a blue devil's offense that yes, got good against TCU, but I still think could struggle against the best in the business.

And that is certainly the red storm. I would look at the under of that game. The Johnny's under in 11 of their last 12, including both in the big dance Duke under in both of its games in the NCAA tournament as well.

24 total games to the under for John Shire and his team this year.

I don't think Michigan is vulnerable at all. I would lay the double digits with the Wolverines against Alabama. Alabama last night, 42 threes. They made 19 of them. Dusty May and his Wolverines will not make it so easy on the crimson tide.

I like Michigan in that game, making a statement to get to the elite.

Steven's everybody joining us on the progressive guest line. Make sure you catch him every Saturday live that Saturday.

Here on Beeson and check him out on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens. We are just two days away from the open area major league baseball talk.

It's a favorite MLB player futures of strikeout props for Jeff Erickson. We'll be coming back. You watch it.

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You're watching Rob points on V7. The sports betting network.

Welcome back into prop points. Dick Whale and Jeff Erickson from rotawire.com. Take any up to the top of the hour here on the sports betting network. Shout out to those streaming along live on serious XM channel 158.

Jeff, we haven't talked a lot of baseball on this program over the last few days. There's been some sort of like upstart college basketball events going on that's taken up a lot of our time.

But we are what little over 48 hours away from the start of the major league baseball season Yankees Giants gets things started on Wednesday night.

Got a good chunk of the league in action Thursday. All the teams are playing Thursday playing Friday.

We're going to get to some strikeout props. We're going to look at the season strikeout leaders at at some various prices.

What do you make of how baseball is rolling out the schedule this year? Obviously we had the WBC to kind of prime the pump.

But do you like this this one feature game on Wednesday? Do you prefer kind of everybody starting at once like we've seen in the past.

I'm a crusty old guy and I want everybody to start in the same day. I want them to all be an opening day. I don't like this opening night thing.

It used to be Monday, the first Monday in April. It always used to be that day. And then you had to start pushing it back up into March.

Some of that is the scheduling consideration because the CBA requires a certain amount of off days.

So to fit the whole season in between that and the 15 and 15 and the two leagues and the number of off days that requires for inter league play.

They have to start the season earlier. But I never liked it when they did like a Sunday night game before the actual opening day on Monday.

I don't like it Wednesday night on Netflix. I don't like having to search for which platform a game is on.

It's crept into the NBA. It's crept into in a fell obviously.

NFL is trying to find ways to add one more game that they can sell. I saw that the other day.

Yeah, just get off my lawn basically is what I'm trying to say here.

All right, I think we take that as a signal to start looking at some strike out futures.

So basically what we've done here is we're going to examine most strike out to baseball this year.

And you have your basically your players ranked in order that you would bet them at value.

So we're starting off with Cole Reagan's at 17 to one. And you're not saying that you think Cole Reagan's necessarily has the best chance to do this, but you're saying is the best value on the board.

He comes in as your six short shot behind schoolable schemes crochet last year's leader Dylan Seas and Jacob to grab.

So what is it about Reagan's in that price?

Some couple things. First of all, we got a couple of players getting taken off the board due to injuries too.

I think it's worth mentioning 100 green isn't on that list. Obviously any more chase burns is the way his usage projection has evolved over the last month.

He's kind of off the board now. And then finally Spencer Strider today with the oblique injury going to begin the year on the I L.

I think that's worth pointing out to that's one less option. Cole Reagan's to the merits of him.

Great strike out picture added velocity this us this off season this spring, I should say.

Of course, health is a risk, but got to love the 38% K percentage last year.

It's higher than even the elite closers as a percentage there.

He's only through 61 innings last season. This this bet is assuming it's a bet on health.

And that he can maintain that that that strike out percentage or something close to it with full health.

At 17 to one, you're getting far better odds into your schoolable than Paul schemes and then get crochet worth taking the chance they're getting a real payout.

I don't really like taking the favorites as my top choice there. They're favorites for a reason I get it.

And we'll talk more about schoolable in a second, but Reagan's at 17 to one seems like a, you know, the confluence of probability and the payout I really like.

Can I interest you Jeff in some Chris sale to be the strike out leader at 20 to one kind of the last man standing all the sudden in that braves rotation.

Yes, yes, you can. And it was sale. He missed time last year, only pitched 21 games, but again, it was a fluke injury.

If you recall, he got hurt diving to try to feel to bond and broke a rib.

He didn't have any arm problems. He didn't have any elbow didn't have any shoulder problems.

It was just this broken rib and he came back when he came back, he was the same Chris sale.

Even so, even though the braves are just having all sorts of negative luck and mentioned strider earlier, they lost swelling box.

They lost Waldrup. You know, they they've lost a number of pitch of joy, wence for crying out loud. They lost as well.

Sales very still is, is a stable ace. I love getting sale in my fantasy leagues, 32.4% K percentage last year.

I like his odds at 20 to one.

Well, let's take a look at one of the better values on the board, Jeff. That is Logan Gilbert out in Seattle 45 to one to be your strike out leader.

Now, missed a little bit of time last year, but 2024 220 strikeouts for Logan Gilbert, which would have ranked him.

I think fourth in last year's tally behind crochet school bowl and web. So what's the sell on him at this price?

So he changed his pitch, miss a little bit last year and he induced a lot more swing and miss. He got a lot more strikeouts.

Typically, he was like a 24 25% K percentage in 2024 is up to 27.4 last year all the way to 32.3%.

Now, he did miss time with a flexor 10 and injury last year and that is scary. And that's why you get him at 45 to one. That's why his price is discounted.

But the strikeouts were there last year. If you get the full 32 33 start season out of him, there's a, that's such a tremendous payoff for a guy that's generating so many strikeouts and so much swing and miss.

So this is a bad again that, hey, he can say healthy and maintain that strikeout percentage. If he does that he's mispriced at 45 to one.

All right, let's talk about school bowl and schemes in conjunction. Jeff, you have them as your fourth and fifth best bets for major league strikeout later.

School bowl plus 350 schemes, four to one. They were second and fourth respectively in total strikeouts a year ago.

Obviously, they are the odds on favorites for a reason, but is this just one of those situations where you don't really feel like betting a market like this at four to one or shorter.

Yeah, that's that. And the case of schemes to it's also okay, you know, that his innings have been limited and in some cases down the stretch, you kind of dial back on the strikeouts.

It seemed like a little bit last year. Just so we could work deeper into games. Now the pirates, they anticipate being a little bit better this year. So maybe that changes that mentality changes a little bit. Maybe the gloves are fully off.

They allow them to go pitch in the WBC obviously pitch two games there was brilliant in those games. So maybe that's, you know, a reason to think that maybe he'll take the next step up.

But again, at four to one, I'm not getting a huge payoff for a future's bet that it accounts for a lot of different pitchers accounts for injuries, accounts for a lot of things that can go wrong.

Scoobal similar situation. He did miss, I think one start last year, but still remarkable strikeout percentage last year, 32.2%.

This is his walkier and free agency. So he's going to do everything he can to stay on the mound. But the Tigers also expect to win this year. They have six starters, seven starters at times.

They're going to want to maybe give him some rest at some points during the year. At three and a half to one, I really don't want to see that. I want him to see the take the ball every fifth day.

And that may not happen. So that's why I don't really love that bet. That's why he's, you know, he's not my favorite bet on this one there, even though he's like the first pitcher drafted and justifiably so in skeens the second.

It's, it's the payout is why they're third and that they're fourth and fifth in my rankings respectively.

Alright, so you already gave us Logan Gilbert at 45 to one, but I know you have a few more long shots that you would consider Jeff Christopher Sanchez 55 to one, Jesus Lazardo 60 to one. Jacob is a Rowsky 65 to one in Milwaukee.

Opening day starter, Jacob Mizorowski. Let's call him by his name there, but that's right. Sanchez just signed a contract extension. The gloves are off. He will hit any usage that he they want him to do. He is their opening day starter.

We're drafting as the fourth pitcher taken and drafts the strikeout percentage is a little bit lower than some of the other pictures we talked about, but not by much, not by much at all. And I think the innings are going to be there for Christopher Sanchez.

One of the reasons why I'm in on him at this price. I think, you know, there's two different things. There's strikeout rate and then there's also how many innings that you can accumulate there.

I think he's got as good a chance as any of being one of the leaders in innings this year in Major League Baseball. That's why I like his price. And that's why one of the reasons why I haven't where I have a mat.

He's also Zardo's a total wild card. Huge strikeout guy. He's swinging Miss guy, but also huge variance in his outcomes there. So that's why you get such a high price on him.

All right, real quick, you have to round things out. Gare crochet last year's leader comes in at number 10 on your list. He's five to one. Is this a stat year over year that does tend to be repeatable, projectable. Why are we fading crochet here is the question.

The red socks are backing off of crochet a little bit so far in spring training and the number of innings he might throw. This is a team that has nine starters. They could be going with a six man rotation at times.

Just fewer reps, I think, and at five to one. I think it's going to be harder harder for him to repeat. It's not really a fear of skill or anything of injury or anything of that nature. I just think he's going to end up throwing fewer innings than he did last year.

Where he clips 200 innings is his first full year as a start of the year as a starter with the white socks, but they kind of babyed him that year, if you recall.

So I think this is almost a situation there where they're kind of counting on him being at his peak form for the playoffs, similar to what the Dodgers do with their pitchers.

All right, before we hand things off to JVT and money moves coming up next year on V soon, we got to leave you with some best bets of the nights, which of these strikeout props are you locking in Jeff.

So Col Regans, we use DK's odds for this exercise, but they are also happened to be the best odds across the board. Other places is like 12 to one at 17 to one. I'm in.

All right, I'm going to that reach shepherd prop, give me the over 20 and a half points, plus assist, put in some faith in the Mayidoca to throw reach shepherd out there for a full workload.

It should be once again in the starting lineup tonight for Houston going up against a Chicago defense that not sure I'm ready to believe the recent numbers on the goals.

That's going to wrap the Monday edition of prop points here on V soon. We'll be back at you tomorrow through the rest of the week. Money moves with JVT coming your way next. Stick around.

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Or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path agile tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving.

The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season mile after mile. So drive one home today. Visit Toyota dot com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places.

Freight rail does more than move goods. It drives America's economy every dollar invested generates another $2.50 in economic activity spurring growth from farms to factories.

And here's the best part freight railroads fund their own infrastructure saving taxpayers billions while powering the economy forward from reducing highway congestion to delivering goods safely and efficiently.

Freight rail keeps America moving learn more at AAR dot org slash America's engine.