Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 1 BETS: Patriots-Seahawks, 49ers-Rams, Packers-Vikings, Bears-Panthers, Cowboys-Giants

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award-winning Late Round Podcast. Before your draft, our players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast on the I Heart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. On Big Lives, we take a single cultural icon. People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image, discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes. I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

1:27Join us each week for a quick chat with your soccer-loving girls about the best sport in the world. Soccer. Just don't tell my coaches I said that. Listen to Big Kick Energy on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen to podcasts. College Football will hijack your weekend, ruin your sleep, and break your heart. And that's why we make the Solid-Verbal College Football Show. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. Every week, we preview the games that matter in the storylines that are going to ignite your group chat. And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport went completely bonkers yet again. Listen to the Solid-Verbal College Football Show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. We are part of the volume podcast network. This is the show that makes the squares. Sharper, it makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always.

2:28I'm my BFF, my co-host, my companion, my Compadre, professional better Simon, Haudar, and oh, Simon! Shall we meet in my good friend? Brother, listen. I like this is going to sound way more sentimental than I like to be. I can't believe I get to do this show with you, with Matt Mitchell again for another season. We're getting NFL football on Wednesday, on Thursday, on Sunday, on Monday. We got a discord that gets bigger every day and is poppin' join the discord. Go to readthenumber.com, you can pre-order my book, get an invite to the discord and Simon. In my fridge, later tonight, I will indulge with a piece of homemade key lime pie that

3:33friends made when they came over last night for Labor Day. It's good to be back. It's a long off season, right? The game's end. You get into draft mode. The draft comes and goes, and then the week one lines come out, and that's what you talk about for three months. So I always joke, it's a season in itself week one, right? There's so much madness. So much madness. It's all irrelevant at the end of the day, right? I think everyone's favorite line from last year is the Patriots lost to the Raiders and week one. Patriots went on diving in a credible season. Yeah. Bull Raiders totally fell apart. So it's just, we try not to overreact, but it's hard not to, right? You've built up these games for three months. You want to stick to the teams you love. So I love it. I can't wait to dive into it. It's just so much anticipation, so much build up. And at the end of the day, we're just trying to have one at home five. We're trying to go three and two here. People that's me and Chad's goal. You might get sick of hearing it, but it really is so hard to go 60% for the season. That's the goal every week, three and two Chad. So hoping for five and no feeling pretty good, not going to lie.

4:35Leveled a lot of the lines this week. So you're like excited to dive into it. All right. Let's get after it. This is our Tuesday NFL week one show. Today you'll hear our Chad's choice. Our Simon says we're going to review the entire slate 16 games starting tomorrow all the way through Monday. 12 of those 16 spreads are sitting at three and a half or less. So that'll be interesting. There's a couple games in here, Simon, that I'm super pumped to get your take on because I'm feeling pretty, pretty good. The action starts Wednesday night, super bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks. Let's get it rolling. Don't forget you can get the shows sharper square on YouTube subscribing like the video. You can also follow us on Insta Tiktok X. Subscribe to sharper square on Apple Pods Spotify. Join the discord pre-order at read the number dot com.

5:38Get an invite to join the discord. Simon, the Wednesday night game, 820 PM Eastern NBC, New England Patriots at Seahawks. Seahawks are currently three and a half point favorites. And this game has come down for context. It's actually the only game we have recent context for. And we both made multiple ladder bets on the Seahawks to win by significantly more than the four and a half point spread. The line is three and a half. Is this historical let down? Is it AJ Brown? Is it Seattle having significant debt issues in the secondary? They lost a lot of their secondary players to free agency and trades and a lot of the guys they brought in to replace them are all injured. They won't be playing in week one. The tricky game for me, tricky game. I like. Well, I want to get your take on the line move and why you think it's three and a half

6:39and not four and a half. Yeah, really interesting line movement. For me, this was a game right when the line came out. I was like, all right, great. I'll just hammer this once again. It's I know a lot has changed. Obviously, it's a new year. You're catching two team to toy different points. I feel like you're going to hear at Nazum in the next 24 hours chat about cover six. You know what cover six is? No. It's a type of defense. That is what every pro everyone you talked to in the football world has talked about for the last five, six months about Drake May and the Patriots, the Sean McDermott, Miranda cover six and the bills game. It worked against May and you saw every team run that exact scheme for the entire playoff run. So we're in a we're in a weird spot where is AJ Brown the breaker of the cover six or was that just a fluke thing where it was simply offensive line and Drake May will be unfazed by seeing the cover six yet all off season to work on it. It's going to be a really unique game. I think the pros are coming in taking a stance.

7:39A couple of these books have moved to three and that's that's a pretty big deal. Right. If probably market here is going to three and they're following everyone else, it's like I've got to predict their markets is following everyone else. It's a big deal. So is it a head fake? That's why I want people to be careful about here because that is another thing where pros do this. Right. They're going to move markets to get a better number. They're going to be like larger positions. I am dug in pretty heavy. I'm not going to lie chatting to see all because I bet this like I said for the last four months, I'll hit people with all the stats and the trends. But I really do think it's really going to come down to Drake main AJ, right? They're going to have their number one corner on AJ. Can AJ win those matchups on their red zone get those touchdowns because I think see all because even with a new offensive coordinator, I think they're going to get theirs. Should I already talk to you about that? I think the Patriot defense was good. They're overrated a little bit by the public. And I know thing I love to they keep showing clips in the Super Bowl of how good the Patriot defense was even they got blown out, which is fair. They didn't give a little by touch.

8:40I was able to get a lot of fuel goals. But Sam Dornell, I'm openly admitted all of his passes were behind. He was off that. It was more on him than anything else. First pass was almost picked. Yeah, behind. If you just watch any of the footage, it's always behind the guy. So looking at this matchup, I really was like, all right, give me a reason to get on the Patriots. And then shout out to our guy, Evan Abrams had just a bunch of amazing trends about the Super Bowl losing team and what happens in week one. So the first one he put out there was just off the top since 2000 teams that lose the Super Bowl week one six and 20 against the spread since. He's got. Let's just break it down teams that get blown out in the Super Bowl. So Patriots lost by 16 points in the Super Bowl. They won't point. They're trained by 19 points. Those teams in week one. I remember two and two. That was a bet we lost. Yeah, two and 10 the following season in the week one against the spread. So the Patriots just have a lot of history working against them where it just shows these

9:41teams tend to come out flat. And on the flip side, the teams that won the Super Bowl tend to do really well in the opening week and the sea ox themselves since 20, 2021, 33 and seven at home straight out. So that's what I got if you if you are scared off by the three and a half, there's three is out there now. You're basically betting them to win or push this game right? How many times is the lane on two? Yeah, but yeah, it's just the fact that the number is the pros have moved this to three. I've bet even more. So maybe I'm going to have some pie in my face here, but I'm just going to trust this whole cover six situation where it's like you go back and watch and drink did have a tough time passing against it. It was noticeable and we've seen the sea ox team. They just seem so well coached so put together. It just feels like the whole team that's prepared and ready. They had no offseason drama. The Patriots had a ton of offseason drama. So looking for them, they got the guns that you'll done. But yeah, if we were able to this obviously, I would debate with you about putting this

10:44in the contest. I don't love it because it's a Wednesday night game. It's the first game of the year. It's you could say we're going to bad number three and a half because there's three is out there. This just feels like another game where you're really going to need to see Drake may take that truly next step to cover this number. I think we're going to have a lot of options for the contest. And I don't love favorites. So like for me, I actually love it. It's a jump sale. So let's talk about an underdog then because the Rams are and the Niners have gone down to Melbourne. Better fill the icebox. Then fire up the Barbie. Because Aussies like to make you feel at home. This game's on Netflix on Thursday night. And look, we try to be careful when we talk about historical stats with small sample sizes. But this one is relevant because Kyle Shanahan is 11 and eight overall against the spread against Sean McVeigh.

11:45He is 9 and 3 as an underdog. He is one seven of those games outright. I think there is so much hype on the Rams. I think we're getting the hook because people just can't believe how good the Rams are going to be. But you know, I hate betting against Kyle Shanahan. He's proven it against this Rams team. Maybe I'm a sucker here. But how are the Niners not the right side getting the hook in a neutral field game when they got both the coming back. They probably got Kittle coming back. They might be as healthy as they're going to be offensively. Aren't we taking the Niners here? Yeah, if you're welcome back, people that listen to the offseason or if you're new to this show, but this is what me and Kyle will be doing all season. We're going to always find a reason to make up a reason our mind to fade the Rams. So this was decided months ago. As soon as the number was hung,

12:45was going to be a no-brainer, but the public was going to hammer this number here. I cannot believe it's now 4-4 and a half. That's one of the more telling things to this line that it has not shifted up like I thought it would because it's just going to be so much public love for this team. But maybe it's the flight that's spooked everyone, right? Them traveling the day before and every one of the world's going to be talking about that, right? What is the right move to travel the day before? To go the week before a guy acclimated? I hear the Rams excuse their treating elected England. This is a total different beast in my opinion. I don't think they realize this is totally different than going to Europe from the West Coast, going down to Australia. We'll see. Their plan is they basically get in Chad. They claim they're going to trust that, but I think they're going to crash because that flight's so insane and such a toll on your body. And then they'll wake up and they're going to be up for 13 straight hours until their game kicks off. And I don't know how that's going to affect this team that's playing at 10 a.m. Australian time.

13:49But yeah, it's a 4-0 and a half year. It's a fully healthy and weak one. I know the Rams are healthy too, but it's like you can't talk me off a divisional game with them catching over the hook in an international game. And they've been there for the week as well. It's like there's so many little things we love about it. Historically, international games, we always talk about it. If you just blindly vet the favorites against the spread and the money line, you are up. To me, I'm taking a different approach from this because this is not the same mode of Europe or heading down to Brazil. This isn't Jacksonville. I've thrown out the trends. Yeah. This isn't Jacksonville playing in London against the Vikings. It's like, it's a phase under the guidance. That's what people have asked about. McVase, three, known as career, straight up and against the spread in international games. So I've had a people ask about those trends. It's like, I don't think you can really back that stuff. It's so different. So yeah, the Rams can see it now. Them losing in this game. Everyone panicking going crazy. Did we over it this team?

14:49It's just like, it's a nightmare scenario. So, can we get blown out back in the foreign energy? Yeah, this ramps thing we've talked about. They're an absolute juggernaut in every sense. But this is where you want to catch them. Right here, early in the season, I think it's going to be a little weird for them getting into what they are going to be defensively. They have so many new pieces. Yeah, yeah. Very pretty. Pretty is a good pass or stripling. Mike Evans, Dabo, they're all healthy right now. McAfry, apparently, is healthy. So, get your head. We won't think too much about this game. We'll keep them moving. We'll take three and a half on the plus side. Okay, because the next game is so gross. I am so excited to make it one of our five favorite picks of the week. You're going to have to really push me here. New York Jets at Tennessee Titans. This number's down. It was two and a half. Now it's one and a half. Money coming in on the Jets, moving that number.

15:50And when I was doing my research yesterday and putting together the script, I went through everything and I'm like, oh my god. And it was a two and a half. So the money's been moving in at the last 24 hours. I think I love the Jets. Let me sort of lay it out for you. Okay. And this is one of the games, you know, in the discord, we are voting on games that I am going to bet on with my own money. And then we will be donating anything we win plus a floor of $5,000 to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. You get to vote on the picks. I will make the bets. Preorder read the number.com. You'll get the invite to join the discord. This will be one of the bets that we might, that we're going to vote on in the discord. Cam Ward has had a very ugly preseason.

16:51The Titans offensive line is leaky. One of his big issues last year was allowing pressure to become sacks. That is an indicator of something that players do not necessarily grow out of quickly. And I think that Jets' defense can actually be pretty good against the run, which might be the best offensive Titans have. DeVandre Sweat, David, O'Numada, fifth and eighth out of 127 defensive linemen against the run per PFF. The wild car Simon, obviously, is Gino. And we talked about this when we talked about the Jets and the preseason. If the issues in Vegas were because he just can't process anymore, then the whole season is screwed. This bet is cooked. But because his whole line was terrible and his receivers couldn't get any separation, well, his whole line is much better with the Jets. And he's got Garrett Wilson who can get separation. Who we love at a 45-to-1 long shot to lead the league in receiving yards.

17:55I get why the line is moving. Are you with me? Are you with me on the New York Jets? Imagine having a full slate of games people and you waste even a minute of your time doing any research on this game. You said you were banned from taking or talking any titty-steaking. So if you're right about the Jets and then next week the Jets, you would ever bet you'd do again against Tennessee to hit again. I will let you start putting that in the show and we can start talking Tennessee again. But no, my friend, I'll be the adult in the room. You are banned from talking Tennessee and giving out facts on Tennessee. So, it's because of our whole history. I'll take the Jets with you, Sherry. But this game is totally relevant to this show and what we're going to do this upcoming season. We're just maybe you've got to read on Tennessee. Yes, everyone in the world saw that came where to look bad, Tennessee looked bad. The Jets, yes, we get it. Just let's keep it moving. No more time wasted on this game. But what are you saying? What are you saying that you're on the Jets?

18:57Like, I'm not saying... I don't know the penny invested in this game. I get why people are bad-knit. It's like I'm not investing any money in Tennessee-telling games. So I can see if I can get a read on this. So this is a fear. This is a fear of what's happened the past two seasons where like two seasons go. Not a fear, just a logical logical. I told you last year we're not been on them anymore. That was your one job and you literally two weeks later, I just put Tennessee in the contest. You're not an adult. You failed at your one job. So I don't want to hear it about them being a technician. I love it when the 30-something-year-old professional better tells me I'm not an adult. It's the fucking best. All right. Then can I sell you on this one? Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bangles. Bangles are favored by three and a half right now. A healthy, angry, motivated Baker Mayfield. A top five offensive line in the box against a depleted edge rushing unit with the bangles.

20:00I know we like the bangles to make a run this season, but Joe Burrow went healthy, historically slow starter, three in nine in weeks one and two when he's played. Simon, give me the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the hook. Yeah, we love this one a couple of months ago. It's another number that had touched for when a mecca of Buckew is, but that she had turftone, can miss this game, but he's back at practice running around and seems like a mecca of Buckew being this game. So him, God, when fully healthy, offensive line, we've talked about their top five offensive line in the Buccaneers. It's going to be a great test for this bangles defense and see if they've corrected their woes up front and they can stop the run. I mean, it's like, if they just could not, I mean, even their pass, everything was just bad. Bangles, they were horrible. Great test for them out the gate. I think in his career with the Browns, he'd never lost to Cincinnati. So Baker, Baker had always had done well against his anatomy and played well when he went to Cincinnati.

21:01So it's like, I don't think he'll be phased at all, either by the fact that it's like, you know, a really hostile environment. And when I would die, are those fans are, but it's like, you know, Baker thrives on that stuff. Like we, we've all saw the clip. Remember that guy in Seattle last year? Kerson, I'm not telling me he's nothing. He's a bump. And then he beats Seattle and he doesn't even celebrate with the team. He runs over to find the guy in the stands to curse him out. And it's like, that's Baker, just like, total psychopath. That's what we love him. So they might lose this game. Joe Burrow might have a moment, but I feel like we'll always be in it. For down 10, we always talk about Baker. Yeah. He gets us as back doors and we love him when we get the hook. So I think the end of the year, seven or eight straight no covers. So my God, as he do, and as this team do a fully healthy Baker, fully author bucks, we're getting the hook on the hype of the bangles, right? This should probably should be three, two and a half. Pretty evenly matched team, especially for looking at just the model. So yeah, we're getting a free point here. We'll take it. Simon, I forgot to mention this game, 10th Bay Buckinghamers, plus three and a half. That's going to be Chad's choice this week.

22:03Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from where we are. Sharpdoos can just see it. You know what I mean? There we go. Yeah, you're talking my language. Welcome back, Chad. No, you're talking jets. What were we having with it? Look, I still... Listen, you were lost in the box. I still love the jets. And by the way, the jets money line is 100% going in the discord. And we're going to vote on that. There's going to be a couple of ugly things to vote on. But I do love the box here. Like that, to me, as soon as you started blasting the jets, I knew that the box were going to be Chad's choice. Next up, Chicago at Carolina, Chicago short road favorites right now. Simon, what say you? Give me the Carolina Pan through Simon Says. I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon Says. Simon Says, presented by Polymarket Carolina

23:07plus three and a half currently trading at 55% at Polymarket. I got to tell you, I'm totally with you. I got some thoughts on it. I got some stats to back it up. But I want to hear your logic here. Yeah, thank you, Polymarket. Polymarket for the amazing trade number. I think people are going to come in pretty heavy on the bear side just because it is a darling of last year. They're one of the better teams. People are going to love them again this year. We all expect their offense to be a top five, top three potentially offense of Caleb Williams takes our next step. But what is the dirty little secret about Caleb Williams? He struggles against the sky's defenses. And that has always been something about him that he struggled with about. The teams that show him will look pre-snap when they go into something else. And a lot of teams piggyback the four Brian Flores did against him. You saw that on the stretch last year where once the game's kind of broke down, especially in the fourth quarter, that's when Caleb did so well, right? But early in the game, that's when he struggled. That's when obviously the teams or other packages worked in.

24:07And looking at this matchup, Carolina, they were 31st in teams that had basically nothing going on before the snap. But they were second in the sky's defense. So that means before the snap, I'm not like they're doing anything with their defense, to always switch his up, excuse the ball of snap. So we've seen Caleb struggle with that, but it's really comes down to the number. It's too big of a number for a Chicago team to go down and do that humid. Could be thunderstorms type of day down a Carolina and just beat up on a Panther's team that I still don't think is as bad as the public thinks. I know they got lucky last year they had it. What is it? A losing record in one their division. These things do happen, but it's also a team that did cover a lot. And right young here early in his career, at home is a home underdog, 14 and six against the spread. He's shining these moments. David Canal says head coach, he's 11 of five as a dog in his career. So it's just what they've been used to. They're good at it. We fade them in their favorites. Carolina, they're terrible as favorites, but as a dog, especially over the hook number,

25:09it's great. It's great play. Yeah, you hit you hit all my points. The Bears defense is terrible. I think that's an issue. I think the fact that's going to be 85 to 90 degrees with 75% humidity in Charlotte. And I think that's an issue in a couple places in the southeast this week for teams. That's going to be an issue for the Bears. It'll be an issue for Carolina too, but I think their defense is just a little bit better and a little more used to that kind of weather right now. But to me, this is about Bryce Young. You just nailed it. We've seen Bryce Young in the past two seasons. 17 and 9 against the spread as an underdog. He's only been in favor at once. So he's almost always an underdog. 11 outright wins. And like not to trigger anyone. If we did, if you're going to go, if we did top 10 quarterbacks, only based on QBs as underdogs, you'd have to be on the list.

26:11Right behind Drake May, and probably ahead of Jaylen Hurts Simon, we're going to have to back Bryce Young in this situation. Let's do it. I listen, folks. Football is back. And you need to change the way you invest in the NFL this season. It's finally time to ditch your old sports books. Apps, because Polymarket is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 50 states. And those old sports books that are relic of the past on Polymarket, you can trade on all things NFL from the Sunday slate to who wins work year to year to who performs the halftime show. We hear from listeners all the time about sports books driving in crazy, trying to cash out live. They can block you as often as they want, holding your money hostage. Polymarket gives you the freedom to cash out instantly. If the momentum swings, you sell off it in real time, you are in control. No one can lock you out and you can also buy in anytime. So when the market dips, like if teams start slow and drops to say 40%, that's not a loss, that's when you buy in.

27:12At Polymarket, you can buy cheap and ride the momentum back up. Polymarket is so confident, you'll never go back to the old way. They're issuing a challenge. They're giving you a $50 bonus when you deposit just $10. Santa right now with promo code SHURP. That's polymarket.us and use promo code SHURP to get a $50 bonus when you deposit just $10. Hey everyone, it's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas Podcast. We've been catching up with some great friends, Paul Rod, Michael Bubley, Seth Meyers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters, like Alex Nassian Earl. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone to do that. Okay, well control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken. Growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet, I would speak for like the both of us. Now I'm working on like thinking a moment, just really not thinking before I speak. And Joey King. You know if your like mom is yelling at your sibling,

28:13and even if you're annoyed with your sibling, you just like won't let that slide. It's like you only can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here. That is not what I want talk about her like that. I just want to talk about her like that. Plus we've been taking your calls, listening to your voice mails and giving advice, or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do now's the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the iHeart ReadyWap Apple Podcast, or whatever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angela Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane Cash McDonald, and we're the hosts of the artist on artist on artist on artist podcast. The Improvized Character Comedy Podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know if you guys heard of foe journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay, a panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the Pousin Paper Cranes

29:17by Auderman Donald at the Wonderland Bookstore. 14. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday, and I heard Norah Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. You have to come to the last bookstore though. Kim Ketrol is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He, he, he winks on Halloween. He gets rid of Nixon and Michael Ford. You get him. I hear you get the elbows here. The eyelashes hate each other. You never seen it least so quiet. As when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists. On the I heard Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. By age 11 or so, at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy and this is Therapy for Black Girls. We spent real time on it in our surviving middle school run, bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now.

30:18So it's literally physiological and neurological, and psychological chaos happening all this entire job. We got into group chats and gaming, friendships and bullying, and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that a road's trust. They're belonging. You could think of belonging as, I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then they're fitting in. Spitting in says, I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers, sitting down with therapists, cure gains on black fatherhood, and what it means to raise a daughter through this age. You don't have more shorts so you can't do flips. You have one to dress up across your legs. That's the range of this run. From screen time to identity to the fathers doing the work at home. You have to get off her device. But the reality is there's a lot of life out there that we don't want you as your adults in the life to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run. Brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy.

31:18Listen to therapy for black girls on the iHeartReneo app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Self-Cast of Tempa is here, which means it's time to rethink what self-care actually means. Yes, self-care can be a long walk. It can be an everything shower. It can be putting your phone on, do not disturb. But sometimes it's actually about sitting with the uncomfortable stuff. And understanding your patterns, your boundaries. Finally, figuring out why you keep doing things that you swore you would never do again. I'm Jenna Speg, the host of the psychology of your 20s podcast. And each week we unpack the psychology behind the experiences that shape your 20s. From relationships and friendships to money, anxiety, confidence, attachment, just becoming more comfortable with who you are. Unlike the quarter-life crisis which is depicted as the collapse, the quarter-life reinvention is the expansion and growth of something. When we develop the ability to be happy by ourselves, nobody else can take that from you. So this self-care September, don't just take care of yourself, get to know yourself as well.

32:18Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the iHeartReneo app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. So having the next game we get to talk about Cleveland Browns or Jacksonville Jaguars, lines move from seven and a half to eight and a half. I want to remind you of something Simon. The Browns defense on the road the past two seasons. And I'll get to the bigger point. 2024 with the best player in the NFL, it allowed 27.7 points per game. So now we get a new coordinator, no miles Garrett. We still like the defense, but it's going to be 90 degrees in Jacksonville, with 75% humidity. Like, this is 100% going in the discord as a money line vote to bet on the Jags. Goal is to win money for charity, not blow the money, but the money that's going to be in the middle of the game. And then we get to the end of the game. And then we get to the end of the game. But I'm going to have to go through the Jags, goal is to win money for charity,

33:20not blow through my bankroll in the first week. But how do I not like the Jags as big favorites here? Against the Dishonewats and led defense that is going to be playing in 90 degree heat and has everything brand new. I know it's square. It's a big number. But I'm leaning into Liam Cohn. Yeah, but I look at this line, I think. And this team, the Browns, like you said, to win this game outright. No, and it feels like between them, Arizona and the Saints, people are probably taking the St. or Arizona maybe before those money lines, maybe it's just the Saints, but no one's really talking Browns. They're left for dead here. Like this number, like you said, on from 7.5 all the update and a half. It's honestly a game I really loved, but you're right. Like the weather, it might work against what I'm thinking here, but it's also like, man,

34:20the Jags, they're so overrated. Like they really are. They had so many things bounce their way. They're offensive line might be terrible. Like honestly, like I break down the film, and I really go through these guys and I'm, but it's like, this might be a really bad offensive line. And yes, I know great OC with all those weapons around them in Trevor Lawrence. It's like they can kind of mitigate that. But if I didn't have so many questions about the Browns, new coaching staff, or it's not Jim Schwartz running that defense, that would be also a difference. They have dogs. Like this defense is good. We've talked how well they've drafted. And the flip side of the Jags, I'm not drafted well. So it's like, this game just seems prime for an upset in the ruin of a bunch of people's survival pool picks. So it's one I'm betting the Browns I've taken the Browns, especially I mean, we even talked about teaser, but you can take this up to 14 and a half on the Browns right now. Like the fact that it is updating the half, it's the books are begging you for some Browns and money.

35:22They're just getting pounded right now with Jags, one. So the splits obviously, most books you see will be about 75% of the bets, 75% of the money it's on the Jaguar. So yeah, very big public, public favorite. And 10 years ago, this would have been 10 and a half. We would have got a great double digit dog and a good number, but the books just don't get us up there anymore. So the fact that this is 8 and a half is very telling about how much respect the public has and the books have for the Jaguars right now. I have to fade it. It just feels like it's so much but all the last season, where if Watson does come in and plays well in Munkins All Funds, they got the guys. I'm telling you, Jeff, you're never going to be shocked. This Browns team, watching up with the other, not as bad as people perceive. Another big question mark, once again, the Browns. I don't know the real offensive line. It's all new pieces there. So it's not what I'm going to force into or taking our contest or anything like that, just because I don't know. I don't have enough info on this Browns team, but I'm happy to bet. I'm excited for you to bet. The Jags Money Line because you think it's a safe bet.

36:24Well, look, the Browns, what we talked about this during the off season. Everyone is always saying, if to Sean Watson, if to Sean Watson, that is evidence of things unseen to be depending on if to Sean Watson. We all agree. They've been great at drafting really good defensive players the past couple of years, and really good offensive players the past couple of years. But it doesn't matter if to Sean Watson is going to be your quarterback. And we can all hope and pray that, oh my God, this could be the best way to do it. Oh my God, this could be the savior for this team, but he's just not going to be. It's a terrible quarterback with a suspect offensive line playing in really challenging weather against a really good offense. I'm not saying obviously we're not going to put either of them in the contest, but I can't buy the Browns here. Yeah, it's just, it's a fun game where if he does witness,

37:27it will mess with the Browns plans because everyone you talk to the Browns, playing on him losing this game, going to the Bucks game the next week losing at the Bucks. Yeah. And then they can come home and start to door against Carolina. If he splits, he goes one-on-one against two playoff teams from last year. You ain't sinned to Sean Watson. So I don't know. I feel like this is for his life right now. Like he has to know, this is it. So yeah, fishy fishy game. This one feels like the. At LAN at Pittsburgh, three and a half steers at home. There are teams in Pro Football. And then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers. Up from three, and our Rogers is at his most healthy, the Falcons have two against the pass rush that includes three guys in the top 20th percent dial pass rushers last year, according to PFF, when healthy, which they are right now, TJ White, Alex Hayes, Smith, Nick Hurribig,

38:29tackles in Ageless, Cam Hayward, and Keanu Benton, also top 20th their positions in pass rush. Falcons finally improved their pass rush last year with first round picks, Jolane Walker and James Pierce. Walker is out with a tornado CL. Pierce is suspended the first eight games for domestic violence. So I can see why the number moved up. And this might be the healthiest there in Rogers is all season. Yeah, don't don't buy the Jagsman line bet this money line. Bet the Steelers money line. By the way, this is in this safe. This is going in there too. Yeah, I would do this is this is way safer in my mind because you try to tell yourself a story of how the Atlantic can get there. Yeah, Pittsburgh total meltdown Rogers has a horrible day. Mike McCarthy comes in the office as a look right and all these things, but it's like you have to be lying yourself. Two has never shown you anything this year, or I should say preseason that shows that he can run a functioning offense and you said the defense is in

39:32shambles in many ways for Atlanta. So if Pittsburgh can't steam roll a team in this game, when can they like come on man, this feels like the spot. So if people can tell I've invested in this money line, which I hope it was going to stay at three on four states, moved to three and a half. It's so it's like, I don't know, our mean you really going to be making this one of our favorite bets for this week probably not because we don't love that taking that hook there because we've seen a time and time again, like teams just get back to work in week one. Teams take the foot off the gas and that's how these books, they're they hung these lines and let the public in the professional decided and it's the money right now is lined up on both sides onto this sealers. This open at two and a half and out to the three and a half. So yeah, I like to see this. I think we're in a green. It's like this is a good veteran team. They're all in the best shape. They'll be all season. It's week one. So Atlanta. Can they shocks and people this season? Yeah, maybe, but it had to start here in week one. Like they would really have to win this game instead of tone for this season because it feels like if they just get steamroll here, that sets the tone for the rest of the season

40:34where it's like, you know, it was all fantasy players. Right. It was all pits. Drake London and B. John Robes and the rest of the team is just trash and that that would be the fury. Not for Atlanta Falcons fan that wants it to seem to be good. If not, you want a quarterback? I think there's a good tone. So we expect this to really relate to this Falcons team. I don't know that we can completely dismiss it from our final five. I think it'll be trickier. Like it's just a much better team. And again, we do this every year. We talk ourselves out of these contest plays and our final five plays because of these hooks. I think we can agree. It happens less often than we think. We're just so super sensitive to it because when it does happen, it hurts so much because one time is actually having a huge impact on that three and two opportunity every week. I agree. New Orleans at Detroit.

41:35Detroit basically minus seven. If you're looking at Polymarket, it's at six and a half or seven and a half. You mentioned to the Saints, I'll be honest. I don't have a strong feel for this game. Like I want to love the Saints because I love what they did last year. I love the run we had with Tyler Schuck and the way he was making the run up their ranks for offensive rookie of the year. But look, I got huge concerns about the Lions' offensive line and I kind of do believe they've missed their window. So I'm in my head on this one. I don't have it. I don't still have an opinion. Yeah, this tough is. This can the Saints exploit all those weaknesses you talked about this Lions team? Potentially. We don't know yet what the offense is going to look like with this Lions team. We've got a new OC in there. I mean so many of these teams have new OCs. It really is crazy how many teams have new OCs this season. So it's another matchup where it's like, you know, if we knew we were doing our Sunday night show,

42:36the Lions win 41 to 14. You would not be shocked, honestly. Nope. When they get it going with that offense, it's there an absolute juggernaut. Can they get stops defensively? Yeah, it's another game where the number feels right. The book's on a good number. If you want to tease it, like I already talked about Browns, that's a fun teaser one. This is another fun teaser one. I'm happy to avoid this one with you because it's like, I don't have a great read on it. And the Saints could easily backdoor a big number like this. Like we saw last year when Chuck has it going, they have a good offense. But was that all smoke and mirrors? Is the book out on him because they had team in it all off. She's a prepare for 27 year old Chuck here. It's it's debatable investing a line to this kid at this point. So just looking at the line, six and a half of polymarket, if you can shop and get that number, okay, take the lines. But if it's seven and all your options of betting, I'd pass on this one or tease it. Baltimore minus three and a half at Indy. So I think it's fair to say.

43:38And this was pretty clear when we did our show on futures last week. We kind of fall in love with the Ravens, right? They are part of our Super Bowl exact around Robin. We bet Jesse Jessie Menter at 10 to 1 for Coach of the year. But first year head coach on the road against a coach, we really do like in Shane Stuykin. The challenge is how much do we believe in Daniel Jones recovery? Alec Pierce, their top receiver has been injured for much of preseason. What's interesting to me is that this line has come down. Like lines are posted in May. It was at four and a half. It's at three and a half. I'm a little surprised giving everything you and I have heard about the Ravens and the love professionals are developing for the Ravens. That it hasn't gone back up. But it's kind of just stayed where it is.

44:39Not in a hard time betting. I don't want to bet on the Colts here, but I'm having a hard time betting on the Ravens. Yeah, it's the battle of Jim Erse and the middle of the night, even with this team and the Mayflower trucks, right? That's right. A lot of history between these two teams. I used to just blindly bet Lamar anytime he was on turf. And I looked at it. It's been a good bet. He's like well above 500, taking him when he plays on a fast, fast turf. It's like, okay, it makes sense. He's a running quarterback. We have no idea anything about this Ravens team. Declan Doyle, the 31 year old OC. Kyle, like we've talked about, he's going to be either the guru. He gets his team to win this division, get some foreign playoffs. Potentially, it's your full. Teams will be lined up at the front door to pay him a ton of money to make them their new head coach. He is being hyped up. He's been the next Sean McVeigh. Mentor, we've already talked about. We think this guy might be the next McDonnell. Like the next great coach, defensive mind, tough task going on the road in your first game.

45:43Letting it gets a cold team that we saw last year when they were healthy. And it was all working. They're the highest growing offense in all of the football. Yeah. So, you know, do you want to take all those unknowns with a favorite on the road there? No. Yeah. So it's like, I can't do it. If I had to pick it, if I have to make a pick for this game, we'll take the Ravens, but I don't feel good about it. It's like not something I want to be doing by just, I still have more questions about Daniel Jones coming off physically. Exactly. Live action. More so than I do have one more in a new offense. Like, well, more, he can improvise. He can figure it out. Colts, sneaky good defensive line. Really good secondary, I think this year. So, I'll be interested in this. Apparently, the Ravens want to be more past. It'll be a good test for them. Offensive lane and safe flowers can go against the secondary of the skulls team. So, great game to watch. Happy not having too much money invested in it. Simon, you and I are remarkably aligned. Right now, I'm very excited to see how it all falls apart in the crucible of Sunday morning.

46:46When lines are moving and we're in chaos and we got final decisions to make and we know that the stakes are huge. Where are we going to crater? Are we going to end up putting the Colts in? Are we going to end up putting the Jets in? Will we have Buffalo minus one and a half at Houston or Houston plus one and a half hosting Buffalo? In this game, had all the makings of a trap. In years past, the Buffalo bills would see a game like this, kind of lay down, not play well and get smacked. But these bills are not those bills. Somebody might say they're our bills. To me, the line of demarcation error is, who do we really believe in more to improve? Sege Stroud or the bill's defense? We know the bill's offense is elite. We know the Texans defense is elite. So it really comes down to those two things. To me. Yeah, game at first. I thought it was going to be an easy bet. Yeah. Really did on Houston.

47:48It just felt like, I thought it was going to be no brain around Houston. Honestly, because you're getting a great defense, same head coach, same 11 starters. The question will always be that defense of front, I mean, offensive line for this Houston team. They are starting all over. So can bills exploit that? This whole brand new bill defense? Potentially, but this is Joe Brady's first time as a head coach on the road. And Josh Allen is careers. No team has been better against him than Houston. They've always had his number. Going back to the show on Watson days. So you're looking at a match up here that if it wasn't Josh Allen, I mean, you would be hammering this. It's the fear factor of that. And Sege Stroud sneaky bad start the season. First career is career first three weeks. In the first three years, weeks one and two, oh and six against the subreddiness career. He has never covered a game. So if that's that spooks you off, guess what? Another great teaser game. What a gift we're getting from all these different places we can bet.

48:51Right now because it's it's seven and a half. Like you're getting Houston plus seven and a half at home with that defense. Ado care how bad CJ is. This is going to be an ugly grind it out type of game. Or Houston, if they could figure it offensively, they could roll because the bills just have so many new pieces. Like I think they're going to be really good this year. I think they're going to win their division. It's going to take a little bit. I really do think that it's it's just so many new faces defensively. And that's we talked about time earlier in the year. That's the advantage. Having a defense that knows what they're doing. Same same scheme same head coach or defensive coordinator. That's an advantage right. The offense was always take a month really to get their get their bearings here. So. Can can we get this in Sunday morning? I don't know, but I have bet this one I have invested, but I really have invested the most in Houston and teasers. I think you're going to be I think it's going to be harder for us to find five than you think right now. We're looking at the box. The panthers. Maybe the Steelers, maybe the Texans, but we're leaving a lot on the floor here.

49:52We're going to go to the late afternoon games. Miami at Las Vegas Las Vegas. A three and a half point favorite. Look, we've said it many, many times during the off season. We're taking the dolphins here. A plus three and a half. Their season win total will go up. We'll take the under because they may not win again this season. The Raiders interior online did not have anyone in the top 40th percentile of past. Of interior D line did not have anyone in the top 40th percentile. A past rush. Two of their defensive backs ranked in the bottom 15 according to PFF. We know Miami's defense is just as bad. This is the corner TV game of the week. But I think we're aligned that we're on Miami here. Yeah, this one's tricky. Our survivor fans, if you have a contest that locks up today because there's a game on Wednesday or tomorrow. This is a sneaky team in the Raiders for survivor pools.

50:53This team Pittsburgh, everyone's going to go chargers. That's the overloading team for survivor. But the Raiders here, if you look at their seed schedule and their season, this is might be as good as it gets. They're playing potentially the worst team in football at home with a veteran quarterback. It's like you expect hurt in this offense to be able to move the ball and play well. We're playing the numbers in the trend. First year, first year had coaches, which these both these guys are. When they meet each other in week one, favorites, two and six against the scrub. So it doesn't, it doesn't shock anybody right? The dogs tend to win here and cover because it tends to be a close game. Because it like we said, it's two teams that are so unsure about themselves. Yeah, thousands. I mean, it's a long career. So this is nice, you know, going back to 2013, indoors in his career, 36, 45 against bread. So it's like, you don't have some huge advantage on Kirk indoors in his career. There's no, there's nothing I can take away from the Raiders. I'm trying to get people in survivor to take them because it's,

51:54you're playing the game in survivor. But I think Chattanailed is better. We never had a choice. It was always going to be Miami. It's too big of a number for this Raiders team. Can Raiders roll? Yes, they have way more talent, way more talent across the board of Pennsylvania, and defensively, but that's a big number for week one on a Raiders team that's, really bad. They're just a really bad team of the first year at coach. So I think we're in unison here about taking this one. It's another game that I'm happy for us not to put our contests. I can sweat it out in survivor pool, not have to worry about getting the dolphins to cover a three and a half number. Jets are going in this contest. Hey, everyone. It's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas podcast. We've been catching up with some great friends Paul Rod, Michael Bubley, Seth Meyers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters like Alex Nassian Earl. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone to do that. Okay, well control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken. Growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet, I would speak for like the both of us.

52:56Now I'm working on like thinking a mom is really needed and thinking before I speak. And Joey King. You know if your like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with your sibling, you just won't let that slide. It's like you only can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here. That is not what I'm talking about. Like that. I just want to talk about it. Plus we've been taking your calls, listening to your voice mails and giving advice. Or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do now is the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the iHeart ReadyWap Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana. Jeremy Cole, Hanepatch McDonald. And we're the hosts of the artist on artist on artist podcast. The Improvised Character Comedy Podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know if you guys heard of foe journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore.

53:56Okay, a panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton Classic? No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the Pousin, Thousand Paper Cranes by Audrement Donald at the Wonderland Bookstore. 14. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark Thirty. No way! We'll have to come to the last bookstore though. Kim Kertroll is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on a low end. It's right up next to the microphone. You get up. I hear you get the elbows here. The eyelashes hate each other. You never seen it least so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on the iHeard Radio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. By age of rather than or so at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in.

54:56I'm Dr. Joy and this is therapy for Black Girls. We spent real time on it in our surviving middle school run. Bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two Black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological and psychological chaos happening all this entire job. We got into group chats and gaming, friendship and bullying, and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that erodes trust. There's belonging that you could think of belonging as I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then they're fitting in. Spitting in says I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers, sitting down with therapists, caregames on Black Fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have more shorts so you can't do flips. You have one to dress you up across your legs. That's the range of this run. From screen time to identity to the fathers doing the work at home. You have to get off your device. But the reality is there's a lot of life out there that we don't want you as

56:00you're adult in the life to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run. Brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to therapy for Black girls on the iHeartReneo app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Self-Cast of Tempa is here, which means it's time to rethink what self-cane actually means. Yes, self-care can be a long walk. It can be an everything shower. It can be putting your phone on, do not disturb. But sometimes it's actually about sitting with the uncomfortable stuff. And understanding your patterns, your boundaries. Finally, figuring out why you keep doing things that you swore you would never do again. I'm Gemma Speg, the host of the psychology of your 20s podcast. And each week we unpack the psychology behind the experiences that shape your 20s. From relationships and friendships to money, anxiety, confidence, attachment. Just becoming more comfortable with who you are. Unlike the quarter-life crisis which is depicted as the collapse, the quarter-life reinvention is the expansion and the course of something.

57:00When we develop the ability to be happy by ourselves, nobody else can take that from you. So this self-care September, don't just take care of yourself, get to know yourself as well. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the iHeartReneo app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Arizona at Los Angeles Chargers, the Chargers are now 9.5 point favorites, down from 10.5. So some wise guy money is coming in on the Arizona Cardinals. You just mentioned everyone's going to put the Chargers in for a survivor. To me, this is a little bit like the Lions and the Saints. You know, I don't have a strong feeling about this game as a number. I'm not sold on the Chargers despite all the enthusiasm. I think they've got real offensive line issues already. Obviously, we don't like the Cardinals in many capacities. But I do like Jacopie Perset to light it up every once in a while as we've seen him do.

58:01And this is a really big number. So I can see why it went down. But I don't have a strong opinion on this one. I love to. Oh, you've been long to me. Yeah, they're beloved by his people's survivor pool because Chargers have a hard season, right? A hard schedule this year. And I think this week it's an easy game and the next week they get an easy game. We have some Raiders and then it's pretty a brutal schedule. Hardball also, coachy career between the 49ers and the Chargers. He's never lost week one. He's six and only his career straight up. So, you know, you can't say the guy doesn't have his teams ready for the opening game of the year. Every year he does. So you're worried about the Chargers laying down and not being ready for this game. It's literally never happened this may as career. And this is probably the easiest matchup he's ever had spread wise. But it sucks the number moved because that's why the pros are bending. This number was 10, 10 and a half. Pro's know this stat since 2003. Double digits favorites. 14 and seven against the spread.

59:01You just you blindly bet it this week one only. That's a week one only stat. So I don't think we've had a week one double digit since like 2019, 2018. I know the Eagles were a double digit fader against the commanders that long ago. And that's that's the last double digit favorite for week one. So it's rare. The pros came and they bet it down because of those trends that is number. So unfortunately there's there's no. You said double digit. You said double digit favorite. Oh, it's dogs dogs dogs. Yeah. Yeah. So it's just you don't want to be betting the Chargers. Yes, you can play him in Teezer's and Moneyline or whatever that. But big spreads like this week one. You hear this type of trend. Do you want to just avoid these big favorites week one? It's just such a wonky week. So that's why you played Chargers that feels like the safest pick for your survivor pool. Totally agree. We'll talk obviously more about making our own pick on Thursday. But yeah, it's all about game theory. Obviously, when I'm talking to Raiders Simon, let me ask you a question. The affiliate fee Eagles are four and a half point favorites at home against the Washington

1:00:04commanders. Answer me this. Do you know why the number isn't five? It depends on book you're at. It's five and a half at a lot of books. No, it's because Jaden Daniels owns the number five. But on foam. Poor guy. He's my ruin his career. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. We'll be here all season. Look, we love the Eagles defense. We hate the commanders defense. There's not a single Washington player on defense who graded as above average or better in their PFF grade. One of us has immense respect and appreciation for Jalen Hurts. One of us loves him. Jaden Daniels return with a new offensive coordinator and his best offensive weapon in Terry McClaren is 31 years old. So I can see why the number has moved from four and a half to five and a half. Yesterday, it wasn't four and a half. It wasn't five and a half.

1:01:04It was four and a half. But my question to you is, is that public money just coming in because they're all sort of paying attention now this week or is that professionals finally taking a stand on the Eagles because that number fell too low. Yeah, the pros have come in. This is such a sixth of the pros will come back on the other side. At some point, you have to buy back. Commanders are sneakily one of the worst teams in all football. The tonsil injury, I know we didn't talk a lot about it, but like, that completely shifted my view of them and putting them behind the giants where they went from having the 25th or 26th. I think great offensive line to having the 31st now. Like they are statistically one of the worst offensive lines coming to the season with a fragile quarterback that didn't pull weight on. He looks, this body looks the exact same. He still looks as fragile as he did when he took those injuries last year. Everyone's talking was that rookie year just a fluke luck because he also got hurt that year too.

1:02:04Like he played through injuries to win that rookie of the year and had an incredible playoff run. So, can Hertz exploit this defense? That's the question here because the Eagles aren't in new offense like a lot of these teams. That's why if this was the same old offense, they'd been comfortable and he, look good in. I'd be all over this Eagles team because match-up wise, this is the Dreamcatcher. There are number one corner who's already pretty bad for Washington. He's missing this game and their backups are basically all graded outside the top. Top 50 of cornerbacks. Like they don't have an actual starter on this group. That's a true number one that can take away the Mate Smith. You know, Jalen Hertz always gets question about his deep ball passing since 2023. Quarterbacks, the throw of the ball that traveled more than 20 yards in the air. So it touched down that goes over 20 yards. No quarterback had more than 20. Jalen Hertz had 28. So he says something that is good at default. Well, he lose that without AJ Brown.

1:03:06We'll see. Like Devante Smith is a good deep ball player. We're just a good deep ball player. It's a number that people are going to put in teasers. I know pros, same thing. Like they've taken a ton of money line stance on this because it's a lot of, if you're taking this, it's a basically a bet on Jalen Hertz at home if you're taking them line. Right? Jalen Hertz is 12 and 1 as a favorite at home in divisional games. He just plays really well at home and especially individual games and wins. On the flip side, it feels like these commanders games are always kind of crazy and wonky. Like they're just a really back and forth high scrimmage games. Like if you go through, I think it's the last three years, the overs five in one in this divisional matchup. They just tend to score a lot of points. So yeah, you expect Eagles better defense. I mean, that front against that offensive line of the commanders. It just, I don't see how the commanders can really explode. Like we talked about this Eagles team, no one knows they're going to be offensively. Like it's going to be 60% run with Sequan or they're going to be a more pass happy team. It's just so many unknowns.

1:04:07So to me, it's another game just happy to avoid. Happy to watch it bet on it, you know, put a little bet on the Eagles one line, but to invest in the spread, I just want to put too much money into it. I'm surprised you can say that. It sounded to me like you were leaning towards being comfortable with taking the Eagles at the four and a half, five or five in half, especially because, you know, five's kind of a dead number, right? So there's no massive difference between taking the four and a half or a five or even a five and a half. So I'm surprised you didn't invest at all in the Eagles at four and a half. Because this just feels like by game time, it's going to be six and we're going to be doing some day show. It's going to be 90% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the Eagles. And we're going to feel shitty about it. Yeah. So that's why I don't want to give people too invested because it just feels like this is line up to be a divisional trap. It's just the line that has moved a lot. And once it touches six, I'm not going to have a choice when I have to take a position like a manor's even I don't want to. It's just these divisional games are really wonky in week one.

1:05:09Minnesota is one and a half point favorite hosting the Green Bay Packers. For the record, this was Vikings plus one and a half right up until August 11th. An August 11th, Kalamari was named the Vikings starter. And to me, this says three things about how professional bettors see these teams. One, no faith in Jay Jay McCarthy. Two, lots of faith in the Vikings defense. Three, no faith in the Packers defense until at least Micah Parsons is back. We did say on the show the other day that we do like Minnesota minus one and a half. I put it on my list. This one that we're going to have to continue talking about during the week and think seriously about for our final five. I do really like it still still like still like the Vikings. I mean, there are some incredible little four stats about how good he is in September. I've seen all that stuff. But yeah, I just like that. I better team then like they just have not every year they've gotten worse since the four stick members. Not any not his fault in my mind like he's not the one draft

1:06:12and all these players, but I just can't get over how bad this team is going to be defensive being how bad their offensive line is. It's if Flores doesn't take advantage of these type of teams, he's going to have real problems because the Bears offense lines really good. They're going to be on a run the ball against Minnesota if they can't really buckle down here and stop this team, especially without Josh Jacob. So green Bay is another team I think they're going to get better season goes along because they have good coaching. These guys will get better with more reps, but in this position, it just feels like this might be a struggle. And we've talked Kailer. I wish it stayed a dog because there's so many amazing stats about the original dogs in week one. But I think it's the right flip. I don't know if I'm no forces think because once again, it's maybe it's PTSD, but you and I won on Ravens plus one and a half against the bills in week one last year. Yeah. Or it means you're before and then it flipped the minus one and a half. So half of our fans of the show lost because it literally landed on one. So that's what I was going to raise. Like we have been burned many, many times and we have benefited many, many times from

1:07:18making sure from betting the flip. And we get burned when it goes from a dog to a favorite and we end up on the favorite and we benefit when we got the dog early at the plus one and a half. So that to me, a little bit of that sort of psychological obstacle is there for me on this number. Yeah. So I'm like, that's what's hard for me to separate too is I've taken a large position. Obviously on the Vikings and I'm a big believer in the season. So for me, this is another tone setter. It's like not that they need to win this game, but this goes a long way to, you know, me now look like a totally idiot being all in this Vikings team and back in Kythe because it's a tone setter. It's like, all right, you are now up one nothing in your division and potentially if the bears lose and who knows what goes on with Detroit. It's like, okay, this is exactly the way that Vikings need to start their season. So I definitely think this is way more important for the Vikings than this for Green Bay. Green Bay, it just be another day in the park. Like they just are

1:08:20they're such a veteran team at this point, especially Jordan love. I don't think it'd be that big of a deal. Obviously, if they lose this game for the Vikings, I honestly do. Like you can't be losing this game at home with the expectations now that color mergers your starter. So it is interesting that the pros have come in. So I have you on the Vikings because some books have touched too. So this has come down a little bit back to one and a half. So we'll see come Thursday if this if this number removes it all. Let's stay strong, son. Let's stay strong. Senator and I football Dallas Cowboys minus two and a half of the New York Giants. Look, we both have been trashing the Giants all preseason and we've been loving the Cowboys all preseason. But I will say this feels like a total trap to me. A complete and total trap. And if I'm betting this at all and I have not touched this yet, if I'm betting this, I'm waiting till Sunday night when people have made their money and this line gets to three at least and maybe I take a piece of the Giants.

1:09:21But right now, I'm not taking the Cowboys as two and a half road favorites on a Sunday night game. I will say if you want the Cowboys, I would grab them now because it's basically getting the three at every book. And I do think it could. If the public has a great day, the books will easily move this to plus three and a half on the Giants. Like they will just need all that sucker in where they can get on top and still add a bad number on Dallas. So if you do one Dallas, you can find it two and a half. It's not the worst bet. But I already told you people, it's not a deal to fade home dogs divisionally in week one. Like it's just over the years, it is rare. But basically, since 2020, they're 11 and five these home dogs on week one when they're divisional. So it's like, okay, are you going to just back this Cowboys team with Chad just said we all love. I mean, everyone's picking them to win the division as well, which is like, you know, it's how it is, right? They're not going to pick the Eagles to win three in a row. It's so much more likely than a Cowboys team that did go out, did boost your that defense. They do have a new

1:10:23DC. So we'll see how he does as well. But they're an unproven T3 Cowboys were number one in penalties last year. That's a big deal. Like, you know, as much praise as we want to give them, that's penalties aren't because you have a bad defense. That's bad. That's on coaching. So we know Horball, his team is not going to be that they're not going to be a ton of penalties. He does. He is a good coach that can get his guys in those type of stairs that they're not sloppy like that. And you think they'll be prepared. And this is a fun game where I know pros who have, you know, been all in on this Giants team. They've bet them to win this division. They believe they're a great sleeper this season and they're hammering this Giants team. But they haven't bet on them in a month in this line because they knew what this was going to happen. They knew that public was going to come and bet this up to three. So like I said, if you want Cowboys, get them now. But I think we need you're in the Unisense chat. We'll wait. Get the three. Let's get them potentially three and a half. We can't let Giants. And that's not fun. But, you know, we don't hate the Giants that

1:11:25enough to bet them to skip betting them in a good number, right? We're not the biggest Giants fans or supporters this year. But at this point, the number is too good to pass on. We're practical people. Like we're not letting the emotions get in the way of betting a good number and ignoring the probabilities that are sitting in front of us. Come on, we're rational. Hey everyone, it's the Jonas Brothers with the Hey Jonas podcast. We've been catching up with some great friends Paul Rod, Michael Bubley, Seth Meyers, Nile Horan, Jake Shane, and making some new friends while getting into what's really like to have sisters like Alex and Ashton Earl. She likes to control everyone and tell everyone. Okay, well control is a harsh word. I would say that's a harsh word. I am more outspoken, growing up a lot of the times because she was so quiet. I would speak for like the both of us. Now I'm working on like thinking a mom is really not thinking before I speak. And Joey King, you know if your like mom is yelling at your sibling and even if you're annoyed with your sibling, you just like won't let that slide. It's like you only

1:12:26can yell at your sibling. I'm like, you can't do that here. That is not what I'm talking about. Plus we've been taking your calls, listening to your voice mails and giving advice or at least trying to. So if you've got catching up to do now is the perfect time. Listen to Hey Jonas on the iHeartReadyWap Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angela Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald, and we're the hosts of the artist on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast, we're each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know. Have you guys heard of foe journaling? Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sudako in the PousENT Thousand Paper Cranes by Auderman Donalds at the Wonderland Bookstore on 14th. That's crazy.

1:13:29I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Doc 30. No way. Patrick of the last bookstore though. Kim Katrol is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He, he winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. You can, I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You've never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on the I heard radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. By age of rather than or so at least 70% have a phone. Middle school is a different world than the one we grew up in. I'm Dr. Joy and this is therapy for Black girls. We spent real time on it in our surviving middle school run. Bringing in a child psychologist and a psychiatrist who's raising two black girls of his own to talk about what's really going on with our kids right now. So it's literally physiological and neurological and psychological chaos happening all at the

1:14:33same time. We got into group chats and gaming, friendships and bullying and how to tell the difference between healthy monitoring and the kind of surveillance that a road's trust. You're belonging. You could think of belonging as I can be myself and I can still be accepted. And then they're fitting in. Spitting in says I have to change who I am in order to avoid rejection. Then we turn the conversation toward the fathers sitting down with therapists care games on black fatherhood and what it means to raise a daughter through this stage. You don't have more shorts so you can't do flips. You have on the dress you have across your legs. That's the range of this run from screen time to identity to the fathers doing the work at home. You have to get off her device. But the reality is there's a lot of life out there that we don't want you as your adults in their life to miss out on. This has been our surviving middle school run. Brought to you by the people who spend their careers thinking about exactly this. I'm Dr. Joy. Listen to therapy for black girls on the iHeartReneo app Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Self-care September is here which means it's time to rethink what self-care

1:15:37actually means. Yes, self-care can be a long walk. It can be in everything shower. It can be putting your phone on do not disturb. But sometimes it's actually about sitting with the uncomfortable stuff and understanding your patterns, your boundaries. Finally figuring out why you keep doing things that you swore you would never do again. I'm Gemma Speg, the host of the psychology of your 20s podcast. And each week we unpack the psychology behind the experiences that shape your 20s. From relationships and friendships to money, anxiety, confidence, attachment, just becoming more comfortable with who you are. Unlike the quarter life crisis which is depicted as the collapse, the quarter life reinvention is the expansion and the growth of something. When we develop the ability to be happy by ourselves, nobody else can take that from you. So this self-care September, don't just take care of yourself, get to know yourself as well. Listen to the psychology of your 20s on the iHeartReneo app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Simon, the money and i football game is the Denver Broncos at the Kansas City Chiefs. And the line was three,

1:16:41it's now down to two and a half. I just want to give you some credit here because on the last show, on the future show, I told you that in the discord, we are voting on the futures bets that we're putting into our portfolio. And it came down to Cincinnati over Philly in the Super Bowl and Denver 21 to win the Super Bowl. And you made the case that we should also put in Denver over Philly at plus 210 and replace it with the Broncos with that bet. So I put it to a vote. The discord voted. We replaced Denver 21 with Denver to beat Philly at plus 210. So congratulations, your influence is being felt. Thanks, Chad. Do we think this number is truly representative of the teams? Like it was at threes, so it's come down a little bit.

1:17:42Or is this a Patrick Mahomes number? Because you know, my question is after this game, will we be glad that we've brought into the Broncos now across all of our Super Bowl exactos in futures bets? Because they're they're going to win and the number's going to come down. Will we be sad that we brought into the chiefs, even at under a field goal? Like I'm trying to get a glean on this game and two and a half has always been the magic number for Mahomes, right? You take Mahomes at two and a half, you fade Mahomes at three. So I've kind of bummed the numbers of two and a half because I really like the Broncos at three. Look, once again, there's tons of threes up there, brother. So you can find it. There are a bunch of books at three at this point. I don't want to do this one either because it's it's the public and the pros are all on Denver. Everyone's been Denver. Why would you not write? They had the number one defense last year. They had the number one offensive line last

1:18:43year. Like, Oh, Nick's, you know, was fine in six weeks after his injuries. Had a good off. Look, pretty camp. They added jail and waddle. It's like everything should be up for the Broncos team. The flip side, the chiefs are going to be so much better in week 10 than they are right now. Their difference is so young. They might be down Simmons. They're offensive tackle. Like, talk about disaster start. You already put in your quarterback who's rushed back on from injury behind a weakened offensive line. So many more questions about this Tuesday. I'll try to give out more totals on Thursday if possible, but this one jumped out right away from our guy. I have any rooms. Basically, my homes in his career be as ninth season opener. He is seven on one in his career to chiefs overs. So, you know, pretty, pretty insane that basically every week one came from my homes. They're scorned either. His defense is going to point because it's just it's a spags defense,

1:19:45right? It takes them. Yeah, yeah, it takes time. Yeah, it really does. Like, this guy is a defensive genius. When the total is around 42 or 43, which it is, you know, that'd be the lowest total in my homes as careers and opener. Every total below 46 since he started. He's foreign out to the over. Obviously. So, this is just someone that, you know, I feel like people doubt offensively. You go look at the numbers last year. He was scorned. It was the defense that struggled last year. The chiefs and those my homes that we were still used to the two mid drill, right? Him driving the field, getting the field goal. You just couldn't do it last year. They just could not close out those games and it was really ugly thrown over. So, match up wise, it's it's tough for me, Chad. Like, I really wanted to be on the Broncos of plus three, but I might take the coward route out and just taking over here and another game where I'll just sit back and watch because I don't know what to do with it. It's like, I think it's mean you have such a history and such a pass, but in my homes. Yeah. I mean, it's under three. I feel like we're just biased to it. We're last year. It burned us. He was one in three in that exact scenario. Well, that's what I keep thinking is

1:20:50we're we're betting what used to be and not what is and it's why we started to come around on the Broncos as the see as we got further and further into the preseason. We're like, wait a second. Why the Broncos plus 300 to win the AFC West? Why are the Broncos at 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl? They have their entire defense back. They got better on offense. Bonyx didn't have a debilitating career ending injury. They were so close, even even in with a backup quarterback to getting to the Super Bowl, right? We don't know anything about the chiefs. Everyone is just excited that Patrick Mahomes is back from an injury knee off of a really bad season. We don't know anything about their receiving core right now. We don't know anything about like how good is Kenneth Walker going to be as they're running back in their new system. We don't know about their injuries. They're defense. Like you said, they've been drafting to backfill and backfill and backfill. So I know the chiefs have to be the favorite in this game, but I think if we just looked at this

1:21:55on paper, it probably closer to pick. If we took all the emotion out of it, it would be closer to pick to me. Yeah, it's tough for me because I am playing both sides in the future markets as well, where I'm on both these teams where so am I. I know really sharp groups that they have not invested a penny into Mahomes. They are more than happy to wait and see a moment. It's like, all right, this guy's coming off a major in injury knee injury early. This is when the youngest defense is all football for this chiefs team and the chiefs, not like the chiefs have been incredible at drafting, right? So I know some pro groups that are just staying away from this chiefs team. I know pro groups that are just totally out on Denver where they look at this team that was 1401 in games that you're behind set a record. And it's hard to push back on either side. My pushback is always going to be Mahomes just needs to make it to the dance. If you can just get in there, his superpower is that whatever he does in January, whatever he does mentally to these other quarterbacks, these other teams, I guess the January and February, it is a superpower. Like Brady had it. Mahomes has it. We can't explain it. It doesn't make sense. Your numbers don't

1:22:55can't explain. There's no model that can predict it. And the flip side would Denver. I keep saying these guys, even if they were aggressive three games, okay, they're not 15 and two or 14 and three. I still think Denver's going to 12 or 13 wins. Like this team is so talented. If Bo Nix takes another step, I really do think that I can't slide all that stuff. And it's like you have Sean Peyton, the Super Bowl winning coach, all that pedigree with all this talent. They know how to use it. So yeah, it's a really another game. It's fun over 10 tones that are right. The Chiefs win. You'll look like a genius if you did come in here. Big balls being like you guys are fools, not back in Mahomes under a field goal. And if you're in on Denver and they come and they smoke this Chiefs team, it's like, yeah, why would you doubt the one seed from last year? The best team that should have been in the Super Bowl and should have won the Super Bowl last year. So man, I know I'm going to take a beating, especially on sharp calls about this game, but I am. I'm going to cow around just taking the over. I just I trust both quarterbacks get points. And I think both defenses here are like you said, all the unknowns. I think that works for both

1:23:59the all offenses more suddenly defenses. I think it's going to be a really hard conversation to keep to keep Denver out of this. I think I think this is going to be one of those where you like to say you get bullied by the sharp calls. This could potentially be one that gets bullied by the sharp calls. We will do brass balls on Thursday. We will do sharp calls on Thursday. We'll have so much more to talk about on Thursday. Simon says presented by Polly Market was Carolina plus 3.5 currently trading at 55% on Polly Market. Chad's choice was the box plus 3.5. This has been our week one Tuesday show, brother. We made it. Well done. Thanks, Chad. This has been Sharper Square. Part of the volume podcast network. We will be back on Thursday with the games we are zeroing in on our survivor pick our head to head battle brass balls. So much more sharp calls. Watch or listen

1:25:03on YouTube at Sharper Square like the video. Subscribe to the channel if you want to join the discord. Go to read the number dot com preorder the number you'll get a link to the invite only discord. You can help us vote on bets. I am going to make also down on some Spotify apple pods wherever you get your pods rate review subscribe say whatever you want. We five stars feedback is a gift until next time love you. The entire draft room groans because you just took the guy they wanted. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the award winning late round podcast before your draft are players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you

1:26:04exactly who to circle and who to cross off. Listen to the late round fantasy football podcast on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. On big lives we take a single cultural icon. People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes. I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the iHeart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. College football will hijack your weekend ruin your sleep and break your heart. And that's why we make the Sullivan verbal college football show. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. Every week we preview the games that matter in the storylines that are going to ignite your group chat. And you can join us in the aftermath as we react to what happened, why it matters, and how the sport

1:27:08went completely bonkers yet again. Listen to the solid verbal college football show on the iHeart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey I'm Mike Yama. And I'm Trevor Sikama. And together we host the NFL fantasy football show. Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL fantasy football show, you're already playing from behind. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Listen to the NFL fantasy football show on the iHeart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an iHeart podcast guaranteed human.