The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years

Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. For years, investors have talked about stocks being unreasonably priced, and yet they haven't reverted to historical norms. But perhaps there's a good explanation for this, beyond just animal spirits. Jonathan Heathcote is an economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, who recently co-authored a paper titled, A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Along with co-authors Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri, they argue that while stocks may look rich on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, they look a lot better when based on free cash flow. In other words, because companies haven't had to invest much, their equity is more valuable. Furthermore, labor's share of the profits — the percentage that goes to workers relative to capital — has been on the decline. Of course, these days the big story is about how big, profitable tech companies are spending a fortune on capital expenditure for the AI buildout. So we talked to Jonathan about his research and discuss the possibility that this trend in free cash flow growth could reverse, and therefore hit stock market valuations, too.

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