The Lineup Show - Fantasy Football Starts & Sits For Week 1 with Game Previews

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1:00Welcome into the line of fantasy football show. I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Justin Mello. And Mello, we finally made it to NFL week one. So it's time to break down every single game and discuss every single thing you need to know as you prepare your fantasy squad for Sunday. Let's kick things off right away. We're not wasting anybody's time. Let's head to Detroit for the lion's saints game. Give me your initial thoughts on this before we get into starts and sits. Give me all the points. Give me all the players. Every point. Give me every point in this game. We've been hibing up this game. I feel like for a week or two now, there are two teams that missed the playoffs last year, but a lot of people like him this year. We like him this year, particularly the offenses. And that's what we like as fantasy guys. We like teams with good offenses. I just have to say to calling them two teams that missed the playoffs. One of these things is not like the other between Detroit, New Orleans, 100% true. Not only is NFL football here, but then you just look at these like first couple of games of the 1 p.m. window and I just I cannot believe this is my life right now.

2:02We get to start with the Lions at 1 p.m. and we get to watch this team put up like rookie mode madden numbers at home. We keep calling this our second favorite game environment of the week. And I'm just so excited to jump into some of these players. But give me your starts in this one. I think they're pretty clear. Everyone. Anyone who is remotely fantasy relevant. Start them. Like obviously the big and obvious ones like I mean your Gibbs and your Aminra's so on and so forth. I'm starting to want Johnson. I'm fine starting to want Johnson to this one. I'm fine starting Tyler Schuck in this one. That's not like a threat. I'm starting to want Johnson here. I'll do it. Do not tell me I will do it. Yeah, I'm starting to shock here if it's super flex. If you're in a one quarterback, I think there's probably a better quarterback on your waiver, wire or bench or like on a street corner. But can I offer a DFS start throw here for you that I kind of teased in a recent episode? Please do. I don't have a ton of belief in this guy season long. But to me, the siren song player of week one that's going to break people's brains and

3:04fab wallets is Devon Valey. I know it seems gross, but he's going to potentially be the second target earner against this high powered Lions offense that they're going to need to keep pace with. There's going to a ton of talk from Kellin Moore, a ton of positive coach speak about how they haven't used him correctly in the past and they've got a more defined role for him. I don't buy any of that for the season, but I do think they're going to need to target this guy. And Kellin Moore is going to want to see how much he can get out of him. And I think if you're playing DFS or making your picks, choose him in week one, but do not break the bank Monday morning if he cooks. Yeah, I don't know the problem with that. No Jordan Tyson. Probably the most pass happy. The Saints will be all season just because of GameScript and their opponent. So yeah, I do not hate that at all, but I agree. At like season long, I have no interest in Valey and I'm not starting him in re-traffed. I want to make that very clear. Put the wax in your ears. Don't fall for the siren song. Yeah, no, unless you're like in a crazy deep dynasty league or anything like that, he's not for traditional fantasy football.

4:05He is more for your picks or anything ancillary. But let's get into our sits. Where are you sitting in this one? Honestly, like nobody that's even remotely worth consideration. Like if it's somebody who you could reasonably ask, should I start him? Yes, do it. Yeah, my note was, do not sit anybody that's obvious. Boom. Don't give me your bowl prediction for this one though before we jump from one of the more obvious games on the slate. I think the Lions drop a 40 burger in week one here and fantasy enthusiasts everywhere, rejoice or cry depending on who you played in your leagues. God, I've been on the wrong end of one of those one too many times from the Lions. My bowl prediction is we've been obsessing over Gibbs all off season mellow, but it's week one and it's Amin Rostime and he's going to hit Peter plus 120 yards in the air. Love it. Love that. But we just talked about our second favorite game on the slate. Why don't we just jump into our favorite?

5:05Let's talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading this Cincinnati to play the Bengals. This game has a 50 and a half point total. I am just so excited for the fireworks. You're going to have to see out of these guys, but give me your initial thoughts. Yeah, the scoreboard might break in this one. Literally. It's like when you're playing Madden with your buddy, but you're not actually trying on defense. You're just like, chucking it deep every play and whatever. I want the ball again. I like the last game. I just want pieces for fantasy. I want pieces of this game. Yeah, for starts, I've got burrow chase Higgins, Chase Brown, nobody else on the Cincinnati side. I think the pointers give you so condensed across these guys to lock them in. And then on the other side, season long, I don't know how I feel, but week one I'll take buck year. I think if you're in a desperate spot, first off, I'm sorry, because I don't know how that happened to you going into week one. But second of all, I think you can slide in Kenny G into your final flex spot. But then for the past catchers, keep monitoring a Buka.

6:07If he's out there, obviously, but give me Chris Godwin as the guy that I really think is going to cook here for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think it's clear that if a Buka plays, there might be a slow start. And when you have a fully healthy Chris Godwin with a fully healthy Baker Mayfield, good things happen just two years ago. We saw that wide receiver once start until he got injured, run it back and I'd even probably start Baker in the spot. Honestly, yeah. I couldn't have said all that much better myself. Chris Godwin is a must start. I don't care. Pretty much every format Chris Godwin is a must start a Buka. He's healthy. You kind of have to, although it's getting a little dicey. But yeah, like we talked about with the last game, two games in row here. I want every piece. If we are trying to determine some sets though, you mentioned Kenny Gainwell. That one's really hard on me because this is a phenomenal matchup for a running back to projects as a pass catcher where we couldn't see a lot of points. We're going to see a lot of airing and out.

7:08It's just week one, very few notable injuries. You probably have better options at the running back position. So I don't hate starting Kenny Gainwell, but mostly because I think he probably belongs on the bench. Yeah. He's not like a guy that I'm like willing to die on a hill for. Obviously. I just think like a scenario is like if you drafted Josh Jacobs and you lost your RB2 and now you're kind of scrambling. I don't think Kenny G is the worst guy to slip in there just because of the game environment. But yeah, it's certainly not one I'm fired up about. Give me your bowl prediction here though and this one. The bowl just to predictions, which is the Bengals finally learn how to play football and week one, which is something they haven't been able to do. That is a crazy one. I know. They haven't figured it out yet. They crack the code and Joe Burrow throws for 350 yards. I'm going to go with something kind of similar. I'm just saying Jamar Chase is so back to the tune of 150 yards in a touchdown. Nothing even crazy. I don't think that's bold. That's just Jamar being Jamar. That's from our chase.

8:08But let's move on to the next game. This is one where I just couldn't feel more differently about the trajectories of these teams. That's the Baltimore Ravens heading to Indianapolis to play the cold skimmy or thoughts on this one. I think this is one of the most interesting and revealing games of week one. Revealing is a great word for this. It's a very revealing game. Are the Ravens still the same elite team they had been under Lamar prior to last year? And it was really just the injuries. And then on the other side, can the Colts bounce back to what they were before Daniel Jones is injured last year when they were breaking records. They were historically good offense. I think both of these teams in that sense are kind of on like fraud watch, not fraud watch, but who's legit and who's the paper tiger? I think we're probably in agreement though where much more believers in the Ravens and the Colts. Yeah. I mean, I could be wrong. I love the way you framed all that. I personally think this is going to be a bloodbath. I think we're all just going to start crowning Declan Doyle as the new hotness at OC.

9:09I think it's just going to happen right out the gate. But there is a range of outcomes in this game. We're seeing Lamar back for the first time healthy in a little while and who knows if he's just going to come out ready to fire. But give me your starts in this game. Some other obvious, I mean, this is the third game in the row. There's obvious ones both running back. Derek Henry Jonathan Taylor, obviously Lamar Jackson's a flowers Tyler Warren. I mean, these are the easy ones. I actually feel okay about Josh Downs as well because of Alec Pierce's health because of just some ambiguity around the Colts, receiving her as a whole with Keenan Allen and everything that's happened there. And this is a Raven Stevens who allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing receivers last year. So I'm totally fine starting Josh Downs. Yeah, I'm entirely with you. Unlike the main guys like Lamar is a Tyler Warren, JT and Derek. I can be convinced on Josh Downs. I think he can absolutely be flexed in. I think where he drafted him, you probably are. And so I'd feel perfectly fine with that. And like you said, this is not an incredibly imposing matchup.

10:10The guy'll tack on that. I don't know if you'll agree with like, there's a world that you drafted. Mark Andrews and you just kind of have to start him. I just, it's not the type of fantasy football I like to play where I'm relying on touchdown upside. And so I won't be, but I wouldn't knock anybody for starting Mark Andrews in the spot. Yeah, I mean, if you drafted him, my personal stance and I'll transition this to my one sit I had is Mark Andrews. I'm just teamfade Mark Andrews. We joked on a previous episode. Like he's going to have two catches for 13 yards. You're just hoping one is a touchdown. I don't want to live and die that way. If you have Mark Andrews, if he's your only tight end, I would genuinely go check waivers. See if there's anyone you like more. I'm personally just not starting him. Yeah, check if any of the guys that we had ranked above him in our top 24 tight ends for week one are available. I'm going to go with a different guy that just feels like he could get like one catch for 24 yards. And that's Alec Pierce. I'm not starting him with a 10 foot pole this week. If he catches some long bomb touchdown, so be it.

11:13But I keep saying this on the show like this week means so much. And I know that you'll be like, well, obviously the fancy playoff weeks more like the week before them as you're trying to get in means more. Sometimes a loss at the beginning of the season can make you make roster moves and build your team in a way and react and overreact to everything. And I don't know if anything would make me pull my hair out more than putting up a goose egg in my flex spot because I just felt like I had to start Alec Pierce. So he is like a huge flag plant for me that I'm absolutely not doing that here. I'm not either. I don't blame you one bit. I am absolutely not starting Alec Pierce. My bowl prediction for this one though on the other side of the ball. King Henry is back. He explodes for 150 rushing yards and a touchdown. He's the jamar chase of this game, if you will. I like that one. I'll go with this counterpart Lamar Jackson, Lamar Jackson, three total touchdowns and is far in a way to quarterback one of week one. I love that. All right, let's move on to a game that I don't think everything is just so obvious

12:15in. And it's because we've got a pretty big gap between these two. It's the Cleveland Browns heading to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. My initial thoughts on this are just spread seven and a half. I want Jaguars. I don't really want Cleveland players. I think this is easily the biggest gap in vibes this off season between two teams and specifically two offenses. Both teams have a lot of weapons we're excited about. The only difference is one of them is led by MVP candidate and last year's quarterback one from week nine on Trevor Lawrence and the Browns of the other guy. The other guy to Sean Watson. Yeah, I think we could very well see a blow here. It's interesting though you mentioned that with the Browns pieces because obviously everyone is just so hot and bothered by every Jags piece as they should be. I am too. The Browns so sneaky have five skill players that are drafted in every single red traffic like across the board. We appreciate them to be the worst offense in football. It's very strange when you kind of think about it on to our starts though. I think you're starting any Jags receiver.

13:15I know we're not like pumped about Brian Thomas Jr. but where you drafted him, you're taking the shot that he returns to form in his rookie season. I think he's a worthwhile player to start unless you have a guy like Juan Dale Robinson like we had in our question on start sits. I'm obviously starting Parker Washington and I'll start to even though I think it's not a great match up but I think the game script is just so heavily in their favor. Who are you starting on Cleveland? I'm assuming you've got the same guys but. Yeah, it's as Jedkins and Harold Fanon. Yeah, it has like a volume play. It's really all it is. It's a volume play on those two. I'm not starting any other Browns. Yeah, I may be watching very intently to see what Fanon's target share looks like. I think that's going to be one of the more interesting parts of this Cleveland Browns offense and like this case he concepts you don't start getting mixed in a lot early. I think that'll be fun to look at more than it'll be fun to watch any of their production. But where are you sitting in this one? I'm personally sitting Brian Thomas Jr.

14:16Okay. I just truly view him as the clear wide receiver three in this offense and a game that I don't think the Jags are going to have to throw it in the third and fourth quarter very much. So I'm personally not taking that shot unless I'm like feeling like a heavy underdog and I need some big points. I'm also a little bit more scared of Bayesville Tune. I'm much more willing to start him. It's just I these in big US backfields even though I like to target them in drafts week one. I'm off didn't a little too scared to take that leap. I want to wait a week sometimes. I'm not sure how involved Chris Rodriguez will be. So Tune for me is more of a fringe guy. I'm willing to start. But if I have other options, I'm evaluating those as well. Sure. I think that's completely fair and like the matchup is not helping here either. Right. Yeah, it's a good run defense and a team that is not a good defense in general not a good team in general. So I don't love that. Yeah, I'm benching the Cleveland rookie receivers to I'm sure you drafted him and you're

15:17excited about them. They'll be there next week to take this time to figure out what they are and what this offense looks like. You just you could get burned if you try to start one of them in your flex. Give me your bull prediction for this. I'm going to say the Browns do not score a single touchdown in this one. It doesn't even feel bold. I'm going to go with another Luke warm take and that's the Parker Washington proves his believers, right? He drops his first of many 100 yard performances this season. And Mitch will never shut up about it after I never will. Let's move on to Mitch's over of the week. The New York Jets heading down to Tennessee 38 and a half point total, but these defenses are so bad. I think we can get an absolute explosion spot in one of those really bizarre week one games and we've got like a few exciting guys in this. I mean, I'm super excited for this game because it's week one and I miss football so dearly, but this is the type of game that if it were like week 12, I just not really have much

16:17interest in this game. I'd still watch it because I'm a sicko, but I'm more excited because it's week one and I'm excited to see these teams play and there's new weapons on both sides. So that is exciting too. We get to see some new faces. 100%. This is the type of game that you're like to your wife like, no, no, no, it's okay. I don't want to watch football. We can absolutely go do something because you know, this is on Thursday night, but give me your starts for this. I think the only two true must starts are Breeze Hall and Garrett Wilson. I think a breeze hall is just so talented. He's the clear number one pack for the Jets. Garrett Wilson. So talented to get number one receiver for the Jets. I think it mostly is you can start carnal tape. I think you can start Tony Pollard. You can start Wendell Robinson, who's the guy we've talked about. Who's a solid flex option. I think he's going to see a lot of targets in this game. So those are all startable players that a lot of leagues will start as flexes. Breeze and Garrett are the only two no brainers for me though. I'm just like a crazy titan's guy because to me, Tate and Wendell are must starts.

17:22I agree on Pollard. I think he's more of a like startable guy, but I think I'm just so high on those guys and he drafted Tate so high that like if I drafted him, he's going to be in my starting lineup. And then Cam Ward, he kind of landed right at the end of our super flex rankings. So if you're a super flex league, he's definitely startable in the spot. Can I ask you one question? Absolutely. Heak one alone. Cam Ward, Wendell, you can only start one. Who are you starting? Cam Ward or Wendell or Carl Tate? I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Carl Tate and Wendell. Oh, that's a really good question. I think I'm riding with Carl Tate. I just, I can't get the Jamar chase thing out of my brain and I look back to that like 50 yard touchdown in week one after we all doubted him in the preseason. And so I'm riding with Carl Tate, but like my soul knows that the easy safe one is that Wendell Robinson is going to have like seven catches for 50 yards. And I'd just have by 12 points. Yeah. Season long, Carl Tate, Simon Close, week one, I think I'm starting Wendell or Carl Tate.

18:25Yeah. I think that's completely fair. For my sits, I have every human being in that stadium that isn't one of the guys we just mentioned. Yep. That's enough said. Bull prediction for this game is just that. Carl Tate has a Jamar chase, asked debut game after all the preseason doubts and he scores a 40 plus yard touchdown. I'll go on the other side and say Garrett Wilson continues to be a volume king and sees 12 targets in this game. I absolutely could see that like 100%. Totally. In play. All right. Let's move on to a game that in terms of pure football, this game is going to rock. But in terms of fancy football, it might be frustrating for some of the guys that you drafted very highly. The Buffalo Bills up against the Houston Texans. What do you guy here for initial thoughts? The Texans gave the Bills a really hard time last year when these two teams met in Houston as they are again. It'll be interesting to see how that carries over into this one. It really is a match up between an elite offense and Buffalo and elite defense in Houston.

19:27From a real life perspective, it could be a good game. But like you said, for fantasy, it could be frustrating for some of the star fantasy assets because the match up is tougher. Yeah. Who do you got for starts in this one? James Cook, no questions. Josh Allen, no question. Josh Allen had one of his worst games of the season last year against Houston. Obviously though, you're starting him like that and goes without saying. Josh Allen could be up against the Maun stars and I'm starting him like, I don't care. Don't try to like outsmart yourself. Don't do that. I'm a bit more skeptical of DJ Moore than most people, especially in this tough match up. But you kind of have to start him where you drafted him and just the fact that he is going to operate as the number one receiver here in Buffalo. And then the other side, I think there's nice pieces to Nico Collins. Obviously David Montgomery, I am so excited about. Contenable. Father. Now horrible, horrible bills run defense. I love David Montgomery in this one. Yeah. You hit on everything. I completely agree. Just add some stats to it for James Cook.

20:28About a hundred yards on average and it touched down a piece in his last two games against Houston. We look at this bill's defense. That was like the worst infopal against the run last year. Let me David Montgomery. I think it's almost a lock he ends up in the end zone. But who do you got for sits in this? Khalil Shakira and Keishan and booty are both really interesting pieces to me, but not interesting enough in week one for me to start them. I think they're both not going to see the volume or have the productivity to start. I'm also out on both these tight ends. I think Dalton Schultz is interesting against Buffalo. A lot of people like King Cade's upside. I'm looking elsewhere personally. I got to disagree on the DJ Moore thing. Maybe I'm putting him in my flex. I just really hate this match up and I could see him not getting integrated into this offense quickly and you could be getting an absolute dud from him. Here I was thinking I was crazy for saying I'm not as sure as most people. You're full on benching him. I don't hate it. I feel like I'm more scared. I think most people view him as a must start. I'm kind of like you though. I'm scared.

21:29It feels like one of those opinions that I was scared to say out loud because it feels crazy, but it's like what's the point of doing this if I'm not going to say how I really feel and I would bench DJ Moore if I had him. I don't blame you one bit. All right, what's your bold prediction for this one? Give me 120 rushing yards for my guy, David Montgomery. I'll go D-Mont too, but it's 90 yards in a tuddy. Love it. All right, let's get to this game that should just be filled with absolute fireworks, the Atlanta Falcons and the Pittsburghs. Anyway, initial thoughts on Falcons and Steelers. Two teams that are so excited to be with our fans are about to hate us so much for this. Oh, no, this is going to be bad. Yeah, the two teams that might have worse offenses than they did with Arthur Smith, which is truly an incredible feat. Super boring on paper and tell you to kind of look at the fantasy assets. There are some interesting ones here. There are some guys here that you are going to be starting. All right, let me be nice now and just say like if you got the second pick in your draft

22:33and you ended up with Beige on Robinson, like let's go because you're getting out of bed for this game. You are so excited to see Beige on Robinson out there without Tyler Aljure. I mean, you're excited about Drake London too. I think that Drake London is getting like way too much like flack for the quarterback situation and how we're ranking him. I'm excited to watch both of these guys and then on the other side of the ball. Like I can get excited for Michael Pittman too. Yeah, he's somebody who's being slept on. I agree though, like obviously like talking about the starts. Beige on in London are obviously going to be in your lineup. And I'm glad you brought up Pittman. Call me crazy here, Mitch. And I think people might think I'm a little crazy. I think Michael Pittman, I think DK Mechalf and I think both the running backs, Rico Dattel and Jalen Warren are totally startable depending on the depth and roster sizes of your league. The Falcons allowed the second most fantasy points to both the running backs and wide receivers last year. And I'm willing to take the risk on those guys. I think Mike McCarthy is ultimately going to do good things for this offense.

23:35People hate Mike McCarthy. I get it. I think he's going to do good things for this offense and it's a smash matchup. I can't wait. How old does Rico Dattel have to be? So we can start calling him Uncle Rico. That's a great thing. Oh god. I'm not so living to lease that. I get called on sometimes now. I honestly love it. Some people think it's like derogatory. No, I just like that. It's a year. He's 28 years old and that's a 28 year old. I cannot possibly be calling him Uncle. But maybe next year. Yeah. Uh, I mean, I don't think you're insane. I don't think I would be starting either of the running backs until we get more clarity on what their roles look like. But I don't think they're like impossible to start. On the Atlanta side, like you have the two insanely obvious options like Drake London, B. John Robinson. And then you've even got Kyle Pits. Like we talked about it. We've seen the Steelers give up the fourth most points to the tight end position last year. I think the two running backs are startable on Pittsburgh. Otherwise, like just take the guys that you took around that flex range and DK and pitman.

24:37I don't know if there's a true ceiling frame on B. sides DK if he breaks a huge one. Um, it's just a little hard to get excited about those guys. But who are your sits? You're going to hate me, Mitch. I'm just, I'm just like picking a fight. I'm like poking you in the back of the head till you start yelling. I mean, I'm Bench and Kyle Pits. And it's partially just because it's this running bit that I like to pick on you at the same time. Uh, but honestly, like the quarterback thing is enough in my head. I don't have faith. I know the draft capital. You had to invest in pits. It's hard to bench them. There are just other options here and weak one that I think I might lean toward. Yeah. I mean, it's interesting. When we do our talk 24 rankings, it's consensus between the two of us. But there was a pretty big gap in how we viewed Kyle Pits. So he appears higher in our consensus rankings than mellow has him. Um, I mean, I don't, I can't fully disagree. I know you're big on the Kyle Pits regression this year. Uh, so it'll be interesting to see how he gets used here in week one. My note here was like, don't try to get cute in week one with anybody like Zachariah

25:39Branch or like Friar Muth on the other side. Like, there are other games with so many better options. Just like hit your core pieces. But give me your bold predictions on this one. My bold prediction, I'm going to say Michael Pittman sees eight targets. Okay. The wide receiver one for Pittsburgh in this one. I am actually fully, I'm fully on the side that he is going to lead this team in targets. I'm going to go with Bigeon having 10 catches. I think no matter who's that quarterback, he is, yeah, I think he is going to be absolutely peppered in this one. And I think everyone who took him second overall is going to be so happy with their lives. 10 catches. I would be thrilled as a Bigeon manager myself. Yeah. I think we're looking at like a 35 to 40 piece out of Bigeon. But moving on to a game, this one's actually very fun. I want to watch this one Chicago Bears versus Carolina Panthers. Give me your initial thoughts on this. I will never see these two teams playing and not think about the fact that the Panthers traded away everything to move up, to take Bryce Young and everything included, but would

26:45eventually be Caleb Williams for the Bears. That's just how my brain associates these two teams. I think we can see a major offensive explosion for the Bears here, though. I know I shouldn't listen to Coach Bick and narrative, but here Ben Johnson talking about how he wants to break the scoring record. He has the pieces to do it. Carolina's defense is not very good. We could see them pile it on here, I think. I have the same note about just this looks like it's going to be the offensive team that we've watched all year. Are we going to get this absolutely explosive scoring offense? I'd probably consider them the most controversial group of players in terms of how we valued them in fantasy football this summer, the Bears. It's going to be amazing to see who was right and who was wrong on each side of literally all of these pieces. Caleb Williams, Roma Dunes A, Luther Burton, Colson Loveland, the one guy that everyone kind of seemed to agree on that he was good but boring was Deandre Swift. Otherwise it felt like a civil war for each of these guys. Yeah, and people will overreact. I will say this will be our first chance to really see the splits and see how everyone

27:49looks, see how everyone performs. Do not overreact. I'm going to overreact. I'm going to overreact. I'm not taking my own advice, but I'm going to say it anyways. If one of these two receivers gets nine targets and the other only gets three, that isn't very good for the one that got three. That is a bad science season long, but it's not a death sentence. The next game that could flip. This is not the sample size. This is the start of the sample size and you probably give it three to four weeks before we really get a read on what's going on there in Chicago. Exactly. We are proudly supported by Nathan and sons, makers of underbrush, remineralizing gum. The Nathan and sons folks sent me some of this gum and when you tasted it's like, oh, this is what real flavor tastes like. It just didn't feel fake. It had a texture and a taste of what real gum should be because I've tried other natural gums and the flavor does not pop like it does with Nathan and sons and the flavor doesn't last. My favorite flavor is cinamastic.

28:50I also feel like my jaws in better shape, not doing as much clenching with my teeth and what's funny is it's made with hydroxyapatite. The same mineral your tooth and mammal is made from and the best part is a chewing gum that helps take care of your teeth in between brushing and critically there is no plastic in this gum. It's made from natural tree sap and if you want a simple daily upgrade for your teeth, head over to NathanandSons.com and check out underbrush and get 30% off your first order. NathanandSons.com to get 30% off. Who are you starting in this one? It feels like a lot of people. It's every bear you mentioned, every bear we've already talked about. The Panthers had a profile focus the second worst pass rush grade in the NFL last year, which means Caleb could have all time to throw, which if any quarterback in the NFL thrives with more time to throw its Caleb when you look at how long he likes to hold on to the damn ball. I want every freaking bear. The Panther side is more interesting to me.

29:51The Bears love the six most fancy points to opposing wider severs last year so that's good. That means good things for T-Mac. I think that's it for me. I think you might disagree. I think you might like Jonathan Brooks a little more. I'm probably in most scenarios only starting T-Mac for the Panthers. Yeah, I can start Jonathan Brooks. He's again, like we talked about in our start set up. So he's not my favorite start. I would rather have a better option, rather give myself week one to kind of figure out what that backfield split looks like. But I do think he's startable. I'd even be okay with Coker if you were really desperate just because I like this match-up for them. I'm certainly even in Super Flex and not starting like Bryce Young. No, no, I'm absolutely not starting Bryce Young. Now I agree with that for the most part. I do moving on to Seth's. I do have Jonathan Brooks as well as Shuba Hubbard for the reason you said, I kind of, if I can afford to, want to wait a week, see what that workload looks like. And then hopefully have a clear vision and hopefully start Jonathan Brooks week two or

30:54three. So week one, I'm a little bit nervous to do so. Yeah, I would completely echo that. The other guy I have in here is like, he got a lot of talk this off season that's kind of calm down. Like if you took Kyle Menongai, like I'm good, I don't need to start him in week one. But give me your bull prediction for this game. Give me a hundred yards for Kulston Loveland. He's the guy who leaves this team in receiving a week one over a hundred yards for a tight end. I love that. He's going to get a third of Caleb Williams, 300 passing yards and three touchdowns. He's going to be on the road to being the first bear's quarterback with 4,000 yards. Let's go. Let's get into a divisional battle here. Let's talk green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. What do you think about this one? Can you see either one of these teams going 12 and five or five and 12? Like I could a million percent. I could write the script for either one of those. It feels like as important of a week one game as any. I agree. I had like a very similar note.

31:54For some reason, this game just feels so massive for the vibes of both teams. And then the other note I have is I just, I think it's going to be interesting to see how much green Bay puts the ball in the air with no Josh Jacobs. And we can kind of see if Kyler Murray can do the thing with KOC and the best weapons of his career. We're just going to get such a read on both of these teams. I feel like winner loss. We're going to be talking about it in like week 14 and 15 as both of these teams have kind of like moved away from each other in the standings. Totally agreed. On to starts though. Justin Jefferson's a lock every week until further notice. Christian Watson is a lock every week until further injured. Tucker craft because of where he drafted him. He just has to be a lock to me. Kyler Murray start with caution, easily starting Super Flex 1 QB. I think there's room for a blow up spy here on the debut, especially if we see him do it on the ground. So I don't hate it. I don't either. Micah Parsons list Packers defense like.

32:55There's some question marks with this Packers defense for sure. I don't hate starting Kyler. I think that's totally reasonable. Tucker craft you mentioned is like the toughest one for me. I love Tucker craft where you drafted and you probably have to start in. But if you're in a unique situation where you even have like an Isaiah likely or like a Travis Kelsey, like I would heavily consider it because I'm not sure how much craft is going to be on the field in week one. Yeah. Who are you sitting? All the Packers running backs. I know Martian Lloyd is getting the hype because he'll supposedly be the guy. I'm not convinced on the talent. I'm not convinced that first of all that he can stay healthy. But I mean, I guess that doesn't matter as much as for week one. And I'm also not sure what this what's going to look like. I think Martian Lynch is Martian Lynch. I think Martian Lloyd is going to be the guy. I think Caleb Johnson is there. Chris Brooks is there. I'm probably just fading the backfield for now. I just said like I'm sorry.

33:56Do not start Martian Lloyd. Like you have better options than that guy who's played 10 snaps in the last two years against a Brian Flora's Vikings defense. That was better option than a guy who's played 10 snaps in two years. Johnson Brooks. Okay. I'm playing. At least Jordan Brooks didn't become the starter 10 days ago. I would start Jonathan Brooks over Martian Lloyd in a heartbeat. I'm just being a chair. But yeah, I'm just not starting him. He's actually one of the guys you probably gotten the most questions about on the smash except website of like start sit but also like how much fab should I spend on a dynasty. And I think both of us are on the same page of like not that much. Like if you can get him for cheap like I think he's worth the lottery ticket flyer. But like I'm just I'm not seeing it the way other people are seeing it. I see the opportunity. I don't see the talent. Give me your bold prediction for this one. Justin Jefferson gets peppered with targets and ends the day with double digit receptions. Much like B. John Robinson.

34:56Much like B. John. I'm going to say Kyler Murray goes to a flyer, one of by ground, three touchdowns on the day. It gets his first W as a Viking. Hell yes. All right. Moving on to the poop bowl. This is a hussies like how could they stick this in the 4 p.m. window dolphins raiders. I'm joking. I'm actually excited to watch this because there are some very fun pieces in this game. There are. I mean, from a real life perspective, it sucks. There's good fantasy pieces. Can I ask you a question? Yeah. We're both sickos, right? Like an absolute sickos. Total sickos. Would you rather watch this game or go apple picking? Ask me that question again in October. But like right now I'm so deprived of football. I'd literally watch a team full of Jalen toberts versus like Jalen nailers. No, I would too. I mean, that was the easiest layout. But the fact I asked the question just shows that this is the thing about it. This is a gross game. But who are you starting in this? Because I do think there are some fun starts.

35:58There are, but I think they're the only starts. It's like the fun, obvious ones of Ashton Gen T Brock Barra is Devon H. And I'm not touching anyone else. I mean, would you go Malik Willis though? If you're in super flex for sure, super flex, no question. I do like the upside in one quarterback. The thing is quarterback is so deep this year you have the full slate. No one's hurt. No one's on fire. That's fair. You probably have a better option. And it's like take a week to actually see what Malik Willis is doing out there. I can agree with that. The only other name I'll throw in if you're really desperate to tighten Craig Doolchitch's kind of. But I probably not. Yeah, you got to be going deep in your bag, but there's a chance he just gets peppered with like eight targets. Uh, on to sits unless you hate yourself. Don't start anybody else. We didn't just name. Yep. That's about it. All right. Give me your bull prediction for it. I think Brock Bowers at tight end is going to see a 40% target share here in week

37:01one. He is this year's JSN, as I was saying the other night on stream. Bowers and Gen T both are going to find the end zone for my bull prediction. And I think the Raiders are going to win by double digits. Yeah. You're not going to hear that sentence a lot. The same. So the only time we'll say that in this decade. Yeah. Um, all right. On to another one though here. We've got the L.A. Chargers welcoming in the Arizona Cardinals. Give me your initial thoughts on this one. This is a much more fun environment to me for a 4 p.m. game for fantasy football. But it's also kind of condensed to a few pieces too. Super fun for fantasy. A lot of points. I think it could be an absolute bludgeoning and so far though. Like the actual game itself. I think the Chargers could could win this one by quite a bit. Uh, they're inevitably the healthiest. They'll be all year because they never can stay healthy. So enjoy the fireworks while you have the chance to watch them. Yeah. 10 and a half point favorites. I think this is getting a crazy ugly. Who do you have starting?

38:02A lot of smash starts. Like it's sort of condensed like you said, you know, McBride, Herbert, Hampton, Maconkey, without question. I mentioned, I think on our, our last episode, Quentin Johnson to me is a must start in most formats and most scenarios playing against the defense that allowed this single most fantasy points to what wide receivers last year. So he's the other guy throwing. Yeah, I agree with that entire list. I just want to single out Maury and Hampton because I think we've obviously been a little bit critical of him season long, but I think this is the most, at least one of the most tremendous spots he's going to be in all season. And so start him with like so much confidence as your RB one, but were you sitting in this? People are going to hate me for this. I wouldn't start Jeremiah Love here in week one. And I love Jeremiah Love. I think he's awesome coming off the high ankle sprain, super serious injury. First game of his career, Chargers have a good run defense, negative game script. Tyler L. Sheer is going to be more involved in week one than people

39:04want to admit. It might be his season high end carries here and here in week one, just given everything else I talked about. He's going to be a superstar. I'm staying away in week one. I can't, I just, I can't do it. Like if I have Jeremiah Love and he's active, like I have to start him because of where I drafted him. But obviously, like I'm with you, I wouldn't have a ton of confidence. Um, outside of that, I'm probably benching the Cardinals, wider receivers. And like if you've been keeping up the news in LA, the vibes around Aronde Gads didn't have been bad to put it in a word. So you can 1000% find a better option at tight end. One billion percent agreed with that. All right. What's your poll prediction for this one? The Chargers go Abe Lincoln and win by four scores. But I love that. I have a Mario and Hampton hitting the end zone twice in a blow out. The blow out is not a prediction. All right, mellow. This one we have talked about it a lot. A lot of people have been disagreeing with our number six wide receiver on the

40:08week to Vanta Smith. It's the Washington, your man does heading Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. So much to watch here. Um, is the Washington O line as bad as we think is Jaden Daniels really back? Is this Eagles offense going to rise back up without Kevin Petula to sake on still of juice is Jalen Hertz even alive is Devonta Smith, the true wide receiver one. It's like this game has so many different narratives and storylines that even outside of just fancy football. I'm so excited to overreact. Yeah. We talked about it with the Ravens Colts game, just like how much it means in week one. This feels like that too. Like this feels like a really meaningful game. It's weird to think this was the NFC championship game just two years ago. We feel so far the vibes are so bad around these two teams. The vibes have been so negative that if one of these teams loses big, there are people are going to be done with them already. They're just going to be like considered frauds. But both these teams also are high upside and they have really fun pieces.

41:09So it is a good fun game. I couldn't agree more which pieces you started in this one. I mean, the obvious again, like Barclay Hertz, Devonta, Jaden Daniels, Terry McClure, and those are the guys that seem super obvious to me. The other guy I am starting is Dallas Goddard who I really love in this spot. He's the much less obvious one, but he's the guy that stands out to me. He's probably going to be number two on this team of targets. I think maybe number three, but early on in the years where I like him, they're going to use him in the red zone too. I think Goddard's totally startable. I completely agree. I like that list a lot. Again, I just want to say we've got Devonta Smith as our wide receiver six, which feels egregiously above consensus, but we're so high on him this year. Love both quarterbacks, sake one, obviously. I look at the Washington wide receiver room. I'm starting, McClure, and I think I'm also starting Stefan Diggs. I think there's going to be enough to go around in this one. I'm obviously less confident, but I think you can absolutely start him. And if you're feeling really frisky mellow, you can start chick a conco to.

42:12Yeah, if you're a sicko and you're depraved of tight answer. Hi, who are you setting up? I'm personally in most leagues waiting on this Washington backfield to see how it shakes out before I start either. I did mention on last episode I would start with Shad White over Jonathan Brooks, kind of a controversial take, but for the most part, these are big news backfields. I often just kind of want to wait and see, you know, I want to see what the workload looks like before I start one of them. Yeah, I think our takeaways from that was I would start Brooks over White and you would start White over Brooks. And if we had the option, we would start neither here in week one. I'm not in on anyone that backfield either. Like, yeah, I don't really love anything there, but give me your bull prediction for this game. I'm going to say sequin bark Lee hits Peter twice as he so often does against these commanders.

43:13I'm going to go with Devonta Smith having a 35% or higher target share in game one. I didn't go quite as bold as 40% like Brock, but I think he's going to get peppered. That's so up there. All right, it's time for Sunday night football. But before we get into it, if you have not yet hit that subscribe button, make sure to hit it so you can follow us for three episodes of week helping you win your fancy football league. And we are always here in the comments section helping you make decisions on trades, starts, sits, everything. But mellow, what a Sunday night football game to kick things off. Yeah. The NFL is going to give you cowboys in prime time week one and you're going to like it. You don't have a say in it. Smoke a whole pack of cowboys on prime time. I can't actually get mad at it though, because like you said, it's a super fun game with so many fun pieces from a fantasy perspective. Yeah, I can't wait. We talked about this before. Let's see what target shares look like in year two for CD and pickins and then you go to the giant side is Malik healthy. What's the shares between him and their wide receiver to Isaiah likely.

44:14The starts here just feels astronomical. Who aren't we starting? Very few names. Just like rapid fire. I am starting to act to vaude. CD pickins Ferguson, dark, scataboo likely Malik neighbors coming off the ACL. Don't care. We're talking about two bad defenses, two good offenses, potentially hopefully in New York. Hell yeah. I want all these guys. Yeah. I think the only guy on that list I'm even feeling like cautious about is like scataboo, but like I'm not benching him. He's just probably the one guy like I'm a little worried about because of the efficiency concerns and how that backfield will be split. But the matchup is just so good. How could you sit him? Yeah. I'm starting them for sure. And yeah, our sits are start away. Shout out to the NFL for giving us a potential nuke for our first Sunday. I football game. Give me your bowl prediction for this. We see 65 points and an offensive thriller fantasy points galore as well. I have one that I had written down that I want to give another one to because we went through that so quickly.

45:18My first one is that Malik neighbors is so back and he goes for 100 plus and a touchdown. My second one is that there is going to be panic in the streets when CD gets so many more targets than George Pickens. I think they are going to absolutely pepper CD on Sunday night and everyone who drafted pickens is going to freak out. And I don't even say that as someone who believes that the split's going to be crazy season long. I just think they're going to do a lot to get him involved and keep him happy. I could absolutely see that especially with all the pro pickens narrative that's really been exploding the last week or two. 100% onto Monday night football this will be fun if you're going into the last night or fancy match up and you need one of these guys to step up or you need one of these guys to not do anything so that you can hold on to the win. That's the Denver Broncos heading to the Kansas City chiefs give me your initial thoughts on this one. One of the games of the week from like a real life football perspective I'm so excited. I'm really curious about my homes I know.

46:20He's Patrick Mahomes he might just go out there and he might look like the best quarterback of this generation, which he is. But he also might look like the Tin Man coming off that ACL so stay tuned we'll see how that looks. Yeah, this one's a way better NFL game than fantasy game and I agree there's a lot to look at here. I'm interested in how Mahomes looks that's probably my biggest thing on the Kansas City side but even on the Denver side like I'm looking at what the split looks like between the three running backs. And then also like how is Jalen Waddle being used because he's kind of been this big question mark of how he works into the offense. Who are you starting on this one though? The usual suspects I know it's a tough match up but Rashee Rice Ken Walker easy starts for me Jalen Waddle. Same thing I'm curious to see the usage like you mentioned how they deploy him. Have to start him here in week one though and then also a guy talked about let us episode JK Dobbins for me is a super viable RB2 in this one. Yeah, I love JK Dobbins as long as he's healthy this season like my hope when I was talking about the three running backs is that we see the split B that JK Dobbins is the lead guy which to me like months ago fell crazy and now just feels like the obvious choice for the team.

47:32But yeah, Rice Ken Walker great starts I think in a 2 kubi league or super flex you can start my homes and bow as well but one kubi I'm not interested in anyone here. I'm also starting Sutton I'm starting Waddle 100% and we talked about this in the start sits episode but like you can start Travis Kelsey. I don't think there's an issue with it here and you mentioned you this Broncos defense is a bit imposing but not as bad as people think. Uh, who would you sit in this one though? I you mentioned the quarterbacks I think I'm on the same page as you two quarterback sure go for it. One quarterback I'm leaving these guys on the bench. It's a weird match up. I don't think it'll be a barn burner. I think it's going to be a defensive match up both coming off injuries more notably for my homes. One quarterback. I don't trust either than this week. Yeah, I'm fully with you. Uh, I also wouldn't touch everybody's offseason sweetheart Cyrus Allen just yet. I think the floor is lava. I think there is a path here for him to carve out a really meaningful role and be like a potential like league winner.

48:34It's just it's not going to happen in week one unless we see something like Pukinakua a few years ago but give me your final bold prediction mellow for week one of the NFL season. I don't know how bold this one is. I feel like this one doesn't feel that bold but some people are fully fading for she writes so I'm going to say right now he's going to lead the chiefs in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns in this one meeting he will find the end zone. I love that. I'm going to go with my guy JK Dobbins and say he is the man he gets 15 plus carries and he goes for a hundred yards on this chiefs defense. But mellow that is the preview of week one of the NFL season. It feels crazy to finally be here. Thank you for everyone who has tuned in today. Thank you to everyone who's tuned in all summer. We made it. We finally made it. But also back Mitch so back we are so back make sure to tune in on Monday when I give my reaction to all the games mellow will not be with us for about a week there but then we will have him back as soon as he possibly can.

49:34But mellow before you go did we miss anything. Just want to say best of luck to all my fellow sickos out there in week one. Let's go get some dubs. Let's go get some dubs. We will see you guys on Monday morning. We are proudly supported by Nathan and sons makers of underbrush remineralizing gum. The Nathan and sons folks sent me some of this gum and when you taste it it's like oh this is what real flavor taste like it just didn't feel fake. It had a texture and a taste of what real gum should be because I've tried other natural gums. And the flavor does not pop like it does with Nathan and sons and the flavor doesn't last. My favorite flavor is cinamastic. I also feel like my jaws in better shape not doing as much clenching with my teeth and was funny as it's made with hydroxyapatite. The same mineral your tooth and amel is made from and the best part is a chewing gum that helps take care of your teeth in between brushing. And critically there is no plastic in this gum it's made from natural tree sap and if you want a simple daily upgrade for your teeth head over to Nathan and sons dot com and check out underbrush and get 30% off your first order Nathan and sons dot com to get 30% off.