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This Wednesday evening, March 25th and the bets are live.
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The odds are moving and we are not wasting a single second.
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I'm Alex Mercer, jump into call sheet, polymarket or your prediction market app of choice and
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ride along with us tonight.
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We will be using polymarkets data to track where the sharp money is moving.
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Let's get into the daily sports evening edition.
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All right, Marcus, four morning positions on the board.
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Let's run the roll call fast.
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First up, bowls versus 76ers.
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How's that position looking heading into tip off?
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A curious story here, Alex.
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Paul George is officially back in the lineup tonight and is a 25 game suspension.
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That is not a small thing.
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And Joel and Bid is upgraded to questionable so we could be looking at a process reunion
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Meanwhile, the bowls are shorthanded.
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Jaden ivy is out with the knee, Zach Collins is out with the toe.
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That pushes Josh Giddy into a massive usage role as Chicago's primary playmaker.
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Monitor leaning active.
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The injury news is breaking late and the market is still digesting it.
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PG 13 coming off a 25 game absence into a competitive game.
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That's a rust factor.
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The market might be underpricing.
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We hold and watch the open next thunder versus Celtics Marcus has that position still monitoring.
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No final score confirmed a time of recording, but here's the context that matters.
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Boston is playing this one at TD Garden with genuine revenge motivation after a 104 102
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loss to OKC just two weeks ago.
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The Celtics had the league's number one ranked defense.
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On the other side, SGA is averaging 31.5 points per game and has dropped 34 plus in each
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of his last two meetings against this Boston squad.
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In fatically, this game has wired a wire intensity written all over it.
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Status, hold and monitor.
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Can't look away from that one.
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Alright, heat versus cavaliers.
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How are we sitting there?
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Continuing to monitor.
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No confirmed score yet as we record, but the narrative is shifting.
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Cleveland has ruled out Jared Allen for his 10th straight game.
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Max stress is also out.
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The Cavs front court is genuinely depleted.
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So it falls on Donovan Mitchell and James Harden to carry the load.
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Miami, on the other hand, has cleared Andrew Wiggins and Nikolaiyogich to play, but they
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are trying to snap a five game losing streak without Terry Rogier.
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This one is a mess of walking wounded on both sides.
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Two banged up rosters, desperation on Miami's end.
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The injury picture actually tightens the range of outcomes here.
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We don't bail on a position just because it's messy.
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Last morning position, Bruins versus Sabers, Marcus.
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This one's the most interesting of the four.
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Austin starts Jonas Corpasolo in net, and he has been rough in March.
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We're talking a 4.57 GAA and an 0-1-2 record this month.
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That is not a man you want between the pipes in a high stakes game.
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Buffalo, meanwhile, is playing for first place in the Eastern Conference tonight.
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A win gives them the most points in the east, and they may get defenseman Connor Timbins
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He's been out 38 games and is reportedly ready to go.
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Goaltending mismatch plus Buffalo playing for seating.
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Crystal and Corpasolo's numbers speak for themselves.
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Morning book is intact.
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Now let's talk new money.
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Two late ads coming in tonight.
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Marcus, walk me through them.
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First one is a player prop inside the Thunder Celtics game.
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And this is a name that might surprise people.
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We're looking at Lugwent Dort over 5.5 points.
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Now I know what you're thinking.
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He's been shooting under 38% on the season.
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But here's why we're not scared of that number.
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He's logging 27.7 minutes per game as a high-minute starter on the healthiest roster in basketball.
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OKC has won 12 consecutive games that the top seed in the west.
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Dort is on the floor because they trust him as a versatile stopper.
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And the Celtics ranked 28th in 3-point distribution allowed to perimeter wings.
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That is a real number.
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He's averaging 5.5, 3-point attempts per game, and 5.5 points is a season-low floor.
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Volume gets him there.
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What's the market saying?
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This is trading at a price that suggests the market is anchoring entirely on a shooting
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efficiency and ignoring the minutes in matchup.
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If you can still get this under 55 cents when you're hearing this, that is where the
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See, that's the thing.
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Efficiency metrics get overweighted on props.
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Minutes and matchup are the real drivers.
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This one is the bigger swing.
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Ryan Rollins over 18.5 points.
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Bucks versus Trailblazers.
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Yannis on 10 to Combo is out with the knee.
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Kevin Porter Jr. is out with the knee.
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Kyle Kuzma is questionable with the Achilles.
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The Bucks have opened as 12.5 point underdogs in Portland.
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But here's the flip side.
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With that roster gutted, Rollins becomes the primary offensive engine.
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He just dropped 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists against the Suns on March 21st.
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He's recorded 13 plus points in 11 consecutive games.
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His usage rate in competitive minutes has climbed to 31.4%.
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And Portland is allowing 117 points per game on defense.
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He will see 17 to 18 shot attempts tonight.
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What's the market price?
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Trading around 58 cents right now.
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Given the injury confirmations, I'd expect this to drift higher before tip.
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If you're hearing this and can still get it under 62 cents, that's the window.
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Portland's Denny Avdia is the counter narrative here.
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24.1 points per game, he'll get his, but this isn't about the Blazers.
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This is about Rollins in a vacuum of teammates.
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Rollins is the last man standing on the Bucks.
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Let's build the master list.
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Rapid fire, final portfolio for Wednesday night.
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Here's where we stand.
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Bulls versus 76ers, monitor, leaning active, PG-13 returns, and bead questionable.
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Market is still adjusting.
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Thunder versus Celtics, hold.
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SGA versus the league's best defense at TD Garden.
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Revenge game, high intensity, high stakes.
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Heat versus Cavaliers, hold.
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Depleted Cavs front court, Miami desperate to end a five game skid.
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Messy but positioned.
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Bruins versus Sabers, hold.
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Corpus Allos 4.57 GAA in March against a Buffalo team playing for the Eastern Conference
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Sabers motivation is real.
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Luguin's door at over 5.5 points.
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Under 55 cents is your entry window.
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Minutes and matchup over efficiency.
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Ryan Rollins over 18.5 points.
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You should surge, depleted roster, Portland allowing 117 per game.
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That is the portfolio.
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Here are your start times for tonight.
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Bulls versus 76ers tips at 7 p.m. Eastern.
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Thunder versus Celtics follows at 7.30 Eastern.
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That's the marquee matchup.
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Heat versus Cavaliers also at 7.30 Eastern.
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Bruins versus Sabers drops the puck at 7 p.m. Eastern
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and Bucks versus Trailblazers tips at 10 p.m. Eastern out in Portland.
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That's your late window play, which means you have time to get your Rollins position set before tip.
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No excuses on that one.
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That is the Wednesday evening book.
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Six positions, two late ads, all confirmed.
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We encourage you to jump into call sheet, polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us.
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As always, we will be using polymarket data to track where the sharp money is moving.
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And remember, conditional entries only on the live markets.
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If the prices moved past our thresholds by the time you're hearing this,
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you wait for the next entry point.
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Discipline is the edge.
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That's the whole game.
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Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only, that responsibly.
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