To Go or Not to Go, NIL and UNC - IC Daily | College Basketball

Daily, it is Monday, March the 2nd. I'm Tommy Ashley. That is Greg Barnes,

always Johnny T-Shirt, JohnnyT-Shirt.com and go to insidecarolina.com and sign up for

your premium membership. Don't Google it. You go to insidecarolina.com and sign up for

your premium membership or you can hit the QR code this on your screen now and take it to the screen.

Sign up. Greg, we'll talk about Carolina's game with Clemson on Tuesday night tomorrow.

I mean, it's certainly a big one for North Carolina. Let's have a little fun here with this one.

And we'd like to try to do these based off discussions on the message board. And when popped up

this past week, would Caleb Wilson return to North Carolina for $5 million? It's an interesting

discussion. And once upon a time, the answer would be yes, not only yes, but blank yes,

not anymore. It's crazy. We're talking about these kind of dollars when it comes to college

athletes, given the landscape and how it used to be. But Greg, $5 million is a lot. I'd do a lot

for $5 million. But if I'm Caleb Wilson, there's no way in heck that I'm coming back to North Carolina.

It's just crazy money for top picks and NBA draft these days.

It really is. And when you factor in that the lifespan of professional athletes is pretty short.

Then you've got to maximize your earnings opportunities. And I think that's really what it comes

down to. The benefit we can dive into this in a minute, but the benefit of the current landscape

in college athletics with NIL and revshare is that if you're a really good college player,

but maybe don't project as a great NBA prospect, then you can really do well for you and your

family. Armando, they caught, did that already, Davis did that. But when you're talking about

somebody like Caleb Wilson, you've got to offer a tremendous amount of money. And I know that

AJ DeBonza apparently got upwards of $7 million to play at BYU. And there's a reason for that

is because he didn't have an option to go to the NBA. And there's a lot of programs that we're

willing to pay a lot of money for AJ and for a lot of these other guys. And given how successful

the freshmen have been this year, I mean, it makes sense, right? I mean, there's a lot of value

in having a stud freshman. But with the way the NBA contracts are set up for the rookies.

And typically a four-year deal, two years, first two years are guaranteed, next two years are

team options. For the last season, you're looking at basically what $24 million guaranteed

for the first pick baseline. That's just the first two years. And then, of course,

if teams want to expand that, they can. And there's kind of a sliding scale. I think it's like an 80%

to 120% of that initial value. And for most teams who are trying to make sure they get these

guys in place and keep them for a long time, because that level pays a little bit lower than the

second contract. You're seeing a lot of these teams choose to pay up to that 120% threshold.

So when you're talking about $5 million for Caleb Wilson to come back for his sophomore year,

what you're really asking is, can North Carolina compete with the NBA teams to pay him

for one year of his time when he may only have a shelf life of 10 to 15 years at best?

And if Caleb is a, you know, a top 10 pick, at a minimum, he's looking at guaranteed,

probably $10 million, $11 million from the NBA, just by signing on the dotted line.

That's the kind of numbers you're talking about that Carolina would have to throw out the young man

to really even making consider coming back.

Yeah. And let's be honest, and folks are watching this going, what the heck are they talking about?

This is a silly conversation. It'll never happen. And yes, you're right. But they're more than

just Caleb Wilson's out there. There's more than just Caleb Wilson's on the Tar Hill roster at the moment.

But $5 million will get you a 26 pick in the NBA draft. Give her take. I'm sure the numbers will

go up for this coming season. But Greg, we can flip it and say, when you talk about a guy like Henry

Vassar, I mean, I think if you're a top, it depends on what your goals are. Let's, let's start there.

Right. Do you enjoy the college landscape? Are you going to be a successful professional player?

Are you playing for a second contract? Or you just want the money that you might get as the first

contract? And I think for a guy like Henry Vassar now, the discussion is more relevant than

for the elite guys. They are, I think we have discussed it plenty. He certainly played like a

first round pick. Often he has not at other times, but you're taking on guys in his, in his area,

right? What do you do? Do you go pro? Do you make the money? Or do you enjoy the college life? Like

you mentioned, I'm on the Baycott in RJ Davis granted, they may not have made that guaranteed

pro money, but they certainly lived the life while they were in Chapel Hill as a college athlete

that made a ton of money. I'm not sure there's a better, there's a better gig in the world than that

for, for the question marks, I guess, on the next level. Yeah, I think it's a great question.

I think Henry is the perfect example of where this can be beneficial because let's talk about

college baseball for a second. A star player here in college baseball because of the way the rules

are set up. Once you agree to go to college and play baseball, you've got to stay for three years.

Now, if you're a great high school player, then you can go straight. I kind of like that set up

more than what we've seen with NFL and NBA where you have more restrictions. But with baseball,

you're stuck at school for three years. And so what happens is kids who are really good players

at the college level in their junior year, that's where they have the most leverage,

because they can entertain major league baseball teams and find out what their value is.

But they also have the option of saying, you know what, thank you. I'm going to go back to

school for one more year. And so that gives them some leverage and MLB teams, you know, always,

all right, I will pay you a little bit more. We see it time and time again, every single year.

The catch is, of course, if you come back, then you lose that leverage. And you better have

a really good year or could hurt you in your decision-making process. Henry's somewhat in that

situation right now because he's got this blend of, okay, he's a French first round draft pick,

right? So when we're talking about first round draft picked, guaranteed monies in the $5 million

range, I think for the upcoming draft, five to six. But he also has eligibility remaining in college.

So if he thinks that, hey, you know what, I've gotten a lot better over the past year, which he has.

I've shown that when I get serious minutes, I can be effective. We've talked about,

the impact that he plays with or without the stats around him. He's just such a magnetic player.

He's such a good defensive player that he's very impactful.

Can he get better if he comes back, right? And can he move himself up into the lottery pick range?

That's really where the conversation comes in of what is Henry Vassar's options.

And if he believes that he's better served coming back and getting a better

rookie contract, well, then it's okay, Carolina, like make it worth my while. If I'm thinking about

coming back, what are you going to offer to entice me back? Is it going to be $3 million?

I think that would be in the low end, $4 million, $5 million. What kind of deals can be

solidified through NIL to make this work? I think there's a lot of leverage for a player like Henry.

And I think Carolina would be best served if saying we're going to make the best offer we can,

because what you're looking at is, can we go into the transfer portal and find somebody of Henry's

value? And that's ultimately what it comes down to. Absolutely. And you mentioned College

Baseball. I mean, you've got situations where guys, it is 21 or three years removed from your

high school class. There's ways to finagle that guys go to junior and college and can go straight.

Bunch of different rules. Jason DeCaro, obviously, if you follow him with Carolina Baseball,

you know who he is. He's been at Carolina since his third year. And by age, he would still not be

eligible for the draft simply because he came to Carolina so young, but that three years has kicked

in. And then you've got other guys who came in older, like a Ryan Lynch, who is a draft eligible

sophomore. So just a bunch of different ways in the, in the major league draft, but I agree with you.

I'd like, if you go to school, you should have to stay in school. But we know how that works with

the NCAA and how it all goes. But let's, I want to dig a little bit further and we're talking

with Greg Barnes here on inside Carolina Daily for Monday, March the 2nd, the value side of it for a

team. Like, you know what you have in a guy like Baseball or Jonathan Powell or whoever on the roster

it is, are you able to get that same value for somebody that's out there in the portal? And I think

the way the portals work, Greg, is you don't get a hometown discount. I don't think I know, you

know, like guys like Nick Saban got it. Maybe Mac Brown got it on that side. Maybe some coaches do.

But I think you pay more and often overpay when you go hunting in the portal versus making sure

you keep the guys that are on your roster. That's going to be key for these teams that are

turning over every year is you can save a little bit, I think, by keeping them there. And that's

where Carolina is going to be, you know, in a month, two months whenever this season wraps up. It's

an interesting dynamic now. Not only for the players deciding what to do before the teams.

It is. I think Carolina is a good example, right? I mean, if you look at the point guard situation,

in North Carolina had Nick Boyd come in for an official visit. They were in the mix for a number

of other point guards. And all of them kind of fell through. And so then Carolina was like, uh-oh.

And they had to had to reach for a player and probably ever spend because of that dynamic.

And I think where where you want to get to, you know, we can use our, you know, neighbor down the

street, Duke, right? What Duke was able to do in bringing back players from last season?

I mean, they brought back Brown, they brought back Kayla Foster, Isaiah Evans, Gangba. So players who

were key rotational guys last season have now become starters and or the six man and Brown's case.

And when half of your rotation is coming back, yeah, you certainly get a discount for one.

But you have that cohesion from season to season, which is really lacking. Right now,

you know, Hubert Davis has talked about that with this team. When you add in the injuries too,

you know, he was talking back in January about, you know, with, with Seth being out and with

his not knowing what was happening with Luca, like the team really hasn't had many days where they've

played together in his January because there's so many new faces. And that's just part of the,

the juggling act that these coaches have to figure out. And I think that's, that's the ideal play.

And I would assume that Carolina got a discount with Seth Trimble because they wanted to build

around him. Certainly was the case with RJ Davis. So that, that is an approach that I think is

helpful moving forward. And for North Carolina, while you certainly lose Seth, you lose Caleb Wilson,

you're probably going to have the option to bring back guys at a good price.

And then it becomes okay. We've got three positions secured for next year.

Can we afford a, though, a huge paycheck at Henry Vassar to see if we can get him back?

And whether you're getting back or not, what other pieces do you need to fill a, you know,

legitimate top 10 type team for the 26, 27 year? So, and the other component of this too, Tommy,

that's worth mentioning is this past year before the house settlement came in, you saw this mad rush

of teams from loading payments to players. That's one of the reasons that Carolina was,

was able to spend so much on this roster. And one of the reasons that Kentucky was able to spend

22 million on their roster. Some people disagree with me on this, but I think the, the numbers spent

at least initially are going to be scaled back. So, you're probably not going to have as much

of a budget as you did last year, at least for the top programs. And so, that's the factor as well

as you're trying to do the math with your roster management. When I come back, I want to be a college

athlete, an elite college athlete, and make a lot of money. Just think about how much a guy like

Tyler Hansbro would have made. And in college these days, I mean, you got to go when the

getting's good. And if you're Caleb Wilson and players like that, you got to, you got to take

the money, even if you love it. But there's decisions to be made now across the board for the guys,

not in that elite echelon. We'll talk more about this as we always do down the road.

Tomorrow we'll talk about Carolina Clemson on Tuesday night. And we'll do a post game then. But

that's Greg Barnes. I'm Tommy Ashley. Johnny T-shirts. Always your friend. And of course, all the

information you get. Shout out to the people that come up to me on the street, or at games, or at

Bosch Emmer Stadium and talk about these icy dailies. They enjoy the short, crisp nature of them.

And we enjoy doing them. It sort of keeps things relevant. And, you know, keeps the fans happy.

Greg, it's always fun. Thanks, Tommy.