Trade, tensions, tariffs... and a whole world of uncertainty

We live in an increasingly uncertain world. But what are the economic and financial implications of such turbulent times? What does it mean for Europe’s banking and non-bank sectors, companies, households, and government finances? And how can Europe navigate such volatility? Our host Paul Gordon discusses these questions and more with expert John Fell in the latest episode of The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 22 May 2025 and recorded on 16 May 2025. In this episode: 01:50 Geopolitical developments and global financial imbalances How did markets react to the high level of uncertainty? 05:10 Safe havens What are safe havens? What happened to US government bonds? 09:08 Europe’s reaction Can Europe afford the increased spending in security and defense? What happens to other structural challenges? 13:18 Potential unexpected consequences What positive benefits can defence spending bring? Can it boost growth? What are the solutions to instabilities that might bring? 16:33 Our guest’s hot tip John shares his hot tip with our listeners. Further readings: Financial Stability Review, May 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Our guest’s hot tip: When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein https://www.amazon.de/-/en/When-Genius-Failed-Long-Term-Management/dp/0375758259 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu