Week 1 NFL Picks & Predictions

0:00Hello everyone, welcome to take the points and welcome to week one of the NFL season. Finally here, this is sports new NFL. Big Shell. We're going to run through every single game on the slate of the NFL week one. I'm your host, Mackenzie Brooks and we have some sports line. Oh, jeers. Okay. We're going to start with prime time games. We have a lot to get through. So we're just going to, you know, we're going to skip the small talk. If you want to ask me, that's how I'm going to run the ship here today. And we're going to start with the game we have tonight. In RJ, we were talking about this a lot. We have the Pats head to Seattle that line settling in around just a field goal. Seattle minus three here over under 44 and a half. But earlier this summer, we were seeing three of us out there. We're talking about a spread that was out there. We're talking about a spread that was closer to five and a half for the Super Bowl.

1:00Yeah, you know, we have to get going because we're about to start playing football, right? And I felt starting on a Wednesday. So no time to waste here. We got to get this show on the road. Yeah, Super Bowl rematch line with C-Hox minus five in the Super Bowl on a neutral field seven months ago. Then we see a reposted as three and a half when the lines open, stuck that way the whole time. I was waiting for a three and finally on Tuesday, we got a three. So bang the Seattle there. You know, what's changed to make that line super adjusted in that way. You know, the Pats now have AJ Brown sure they have Romeo dobs. So don't have any upgrades on the offensive line aside from left tackle where they got a larger barrier Tucker. So are they going to be able to slow down that Seattle pass rush? I'm not so sure. And because that Seattle pass rush is so dominant and so dangerous up front, it kind of takes away from the absence we think for Nick Eman-Wari who is questionable, but leaning toward the Dauflos side, it sounds like they won't have him. They won't have another safety. I think Seattle defensive friends going to handle business and it's going to be tough for Drake and May and them boys to score some points. So I like him to throw an interception. I like Seattle to cover on the three willing to pay the minus one twenty for the three.

2:02Don't really love the three and a half. But yeah, just in case Seattle's offense isn't where it needs to be in week one with the new offensive coordinator and it ends up being like a 16 13 games that have a more dominant showing from the offense. Right. And it's interesting also wondering how much of the spread has to do with the secondary injuries for Seattle as well combined with the offensive improvements for the Patriots. But again, to see a field goal spread at a home game, we had a neutral site spread that was larger just feels a little fishy. I would lean towards Seattle, especially at the minus three two. Quick sign though, though, my guy Rashid Shaheed, just one of those players I'm hyper fixated on when I feel like I'm in a good spot to bet on his overs. I will. He's at 29 and a half receiving yards right now as his line. If he pops off for this game, I don't think we'll see 29 and a half again. I just don't think we're going to see that low of a number. I don't think Cooper Cups going to get that much more attention than him and then the ceiling for a sheet Shaheed who can have a 60 yard catch for all we know is just a lot higher. So that 29 and a half that could be two receptions.

3:03And honestly, I think this is a good by-law spot on him who's now fully integrated into the offense after coming in halfway through last season. So RJ likes to spread. I like the spread as well. A little over sheet Shaheed for you there. Larry Brinson Brinson. There were no large thoughts on this game from you guys kind of a bit of a stay away. Yeah, I mean, it's a it's a Wednesday NFL game. It's weird. I think I think that I would be, you know, it's tempting because it's the first game of the year to come out and just start firing on props. I think I'd be a little cautious because these are two defensive-minded head coaches. You know, Josh Brighan, you know, everyone knows he's going to try to adjust from what the C-Hulk showed him in the Super Bowl when they dominated that Patriots offense. But you know, it's a just to do might be doubtful. So I think the C-Hulk's defense will be plenty capable of slowing down the new in the Patriots offense. But I do like that Shaheed over and I like the props that Larry gave out to. I think these secondary options with the elite corners that you have on each of these teams are going to be very important on Wednesday night. All right. I like it.

4:04Let's move on. Thursday night football. We are headed to Australia. We have the Niners. We have the Rams, a division rivalry. Rams minus three and a half. It's settling in at 48 and a half is your total here. Larry, no, don't have a strong pick here. But at least just bring us through the first ever Australia game. We're talking about a team that's split last year, but the Rams smacked them in week 10. And that's kind of where we've left off with these two teams. Yeah. There's seen a lot of money come in on the Rams. In fact, Sirka Million released Rams minus four, expecting everyone to be piling on the Rams. And I agree with that. I'm going towards the Rams that pressure they're going to get with Miles Garrett is going to be intense. But the way I'm attacking it, and yes, it's sacrilegious. I'm not playing the spread on the first two NFL games of the year, but I am playing some props. Check out my props for game one on sports line. But for this one, I'm going Brock Purty under 37 and a half yards. I don't think he's going to have a lot of time. This is for his longest completion. I don't think he's going to have a lot of time with that Rams pass rush.

5:04I think you're going to see a lot of dump pops to McCaffrey, two Kittle, and you're looking at a Rams secondary that now has elite talent on the outside when they bring in McDuffie and Watson. So I think it's going to be a lot of short passes to get Brock Purty in rhythm, but don't expose him to the Rams pass rush. Yeah, it's funky. I'm divisional games are funky in general. You put them across the world. They only get funkier. So it's not like something I'm, you know, banging on the door for Rams minus three and a half. And after all the, you know, smoke and talk about them as well, looking at Purty myself, RJ, you were mentioning Purty here too in the prop. Yeah, I like him over 33 and a half pass attempts. He looked at those last two games last year with the 49ers in the Rams. It was Mac Jones, both times, but he averaged about 41 attempts in regulation. One of those went to overtime. So if you just look at regulation, they were throwing a lag because they needed to to keep up with this Rams offense. So I think it's going to be similar here, you know, where he's going to have to throw the ball a lot.

6:05They're going to be playing from behind. I think the line should be like closer to seven. But with it being in Australia, not knowing how the travel, the different travel that these two teams did with the Rams going 24 hours in advance and the 49ers going a weekend advance. And then the field, the playing game on Melbourne's cricket field for the first time ever, where Australian Wills football has played. Who knows? So many mitigating factors there that I don't want to play this spread. I don't really want to attack anything but a proper two. And then we just got to see how these teams adjust to having those different travel schedules, having some injuries pop up, Alfred Collins for the 49ers now for the season. So they lost some interior defensive line talent there. Maybe the Rams can attack that inside and play a little more run game. And it's a little lower scoring than we think because they're chewing up clock a little bit more. So I'm just going to be a wait and see mode for this game. Can you play alive once we get a sense of how these teams responding to the travel? Yeah, that could be a great live betting situation game. It's funny. I was throwing out a party prop too. Something I had some good success with last year was just party to throw an interception.

7:06It ended the season with three. There was a streak where he was averaging like one game for a seven game span. So again, we're across the world. Maybe it's little juicy. You could put it with one of the other pretty correlated plays between RJ and Larry as well, but this is kind of looking like a player prop game from the crew here. We're going to stick to the prime time games and we'll head into the full Sunday sleigh after this. But let's go all the way to Sunday night football, another divisional game. Cowboys minus three headed to New York over under set up 40 and a half. The giants are two and 13 in season openers since 2011. That is second worst or worse in the NFL. But John Harball himself. He's second best in the NFL 12 and six in week one games from his 2008 to 25 stick with the Ravens. So you got to pick your battle here. I'm pretty anti Cowboys this season. I've mentioned it before on this show, but as far as actual picks, Princeton, do you have something you want to say with your chest? Yeah, I like the over in this spot.

8:06You know, it is, you know, you got to be a little careful with week one, because we typically see teams come out slow. But I think the Cowboys are going to be a high octane offense. I think the giants overall be much improved just because of the John Harball factor. We saw, you know, there's a while ago, but when he took over in Baltimore, they went for like four wins and 12 wins overnight. I don't think we'll see that from the giants, but I do think we'll see just a more grown up team that can score some points. Now, I think there's a chance that Dallas's defense could be above average this year, but I'm willing to run the risk and see if the giants can score in this game. They've got the weapons. I think we expect Malik neighbors to be going this one. They should be able to score, and I don't think they'll be able to slow Dallas down much. So I like the over kind of a shootout Sunday night. Yeah. And, are you correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like books have almost over corrected, but the trends of week one unders, like they're almost lowering these lines as well. Would you agree with that? Or I just, it is like a trendy thing to be wanting to take these week one unders, which

9:07sometimes gives you value on the over. I mean, it depends on the line. I mean, 48 is not a low number. We have 50, I think in the bucks game. We have some other, I was founding the my chest for the Ravens Colts under all summer. You know, I think it was 49 and a half. We talked about it. It's more like 47 and a half year. So I think it really depends from game to game. But when I look at this game, the trends that I really like involve the vision of home dogs, especially of three or more. Since 2012, the vision of home dogs of three or more, 16 and three against the spread and week one, you take all the vision of dogs at home. They're 26 against the spread and week one, and that same stretch. So this is a situation where you get, you put somebody as a home underdog in a divisional game where they supposedly know the opponent pretty well. And you want to take that, that a home underdog. So I like the Giants plus three. That's my pick in this game. Loved it once and finally got to three there, you know, because it was two and a half for much of the summer. But I like not having Tyler Smith for the Cowboys makes the left side of the line weaker. I still have questions about that left tackle anyway. So Giants with their dangerous ed rushers they have, we know how much depth they have

10:08rushing the passer. That gives them something to attack and then we'll see if that Dallas defense, that rebuild Dallas defense with Christian Parker as DC is going to be really, be really ready to go in week one and be an average or better unit right out the gate. If they are, maybe they cover this number. I'm not banking on it. So I like Giants plus three. I think they have a good chance to win this game. Yeah. And what's interesting about Dallas is they open up a two divisional games, start the season. They play Washington as well. So the Oh and two doomsday scenario, which I know is the least likely of all the scenarios of this two weeks stretch would be really interesting to see. But there are definitely some divisional week one week two matchups that will be happening across the league here. I'm with you like the bar was in the basement for the Cowboys defense. So you can improve to OK. And then you're on the road in a divisional game. And that's kind of where I'm at with them until I see otherwise. So again, Lane three on the road headed to the Giants. Take a look at some chat questions before we move on to our final primetime game here.

11:09And we do have a pretty solid chat going here. Let's see. Let's see. We got anything from bed coming up here. Somebody mentioned Dacta throw the interception. I think that's interesting when you put that with the fact that maybe they're going to have some trouble blocking for him on the blind side. You know, if they get some pass rush there, he has to hurry a throw. You know, he has confidence in the receiver. He has some great receivers to throw to. But if they can jump around here knowing that the pressure is coming, you might get that picks. I think that's an interesting play there. It might be something that once Tyler Schmitz comes back, once the left tackle gets a little fight a bit, might not be as good a play down the road. But it's a pretty strong pick, I think, for weak one. Yeah. I think it's kind of devastating to lose your best offensive lineman so close to weak one when you're facing Brian Burns and Tibito and Carter and Arville Reese. That Giants do have a good pass rush. And I'm with you guys. I'm leaning towards the points because the main thing I worry about with the Giants is the health of their stars. But right now for weak one, they all should be good to go. You know, we'll see if they can last the season.

12:11But I'm with you guys in terms of the plus three. Yeah. When I think about Giants' futures, I'm like, well, Jackson Darkett is head cut off by week six, like running into somebody. That's the question that I'm going to avoid. That's where I'm at with that team. All right. We're going to move on to the Sunday slate. We got 1 p.m. games. We got 4 p.m. games. Then we got some Monday night football as well. Talking about games, we're honestly more passionate about first than we'll trickle into just making sure we hit everything as well. But everyone seems to be pretty high on this bill's game, CBS game, bills, essentially a pick on their minus one at Houston. Over under 44 and a half. Now we know Josh Allen has a hard time in Houston. We don't typically see the best version of him. But I like to see that we're basically all kind of riding this Houston train here, Arge. Yeah. You know, plus money on the money line with a team in the Texans that beat Buffalo last year with Davis Mills at quarterback. Defense is just as strong this year. So I don't see why they won't come in and give Joe Brady's team some fits. And then we know Brady has some extra responsibilities.

13:13Now being the head coach has to manage the game, has to kind of learn how to do that. And not just focus on the offense. So we'll see how they deal with that. I'm really worried about this Buffalo defense. You know, I'm always the eternal bills pessimist. You know, they have some starting positions. They were trying to figure out late in camp. They're switching schemes. Don't really like the back end with what they have established there outside of Christian Benford. Don't really like what they have up front outside of Greg Russo rushing the pass. Or so I think it's going to be pretty easy to score some points on Buffalo. And then Josh Allen will have to be Superman. And we've seen he could do that in the past. So maybe they go out and win 10, 12, 14 games with him doing that. But it is a lot to ask week to week, especially when you're going against a very good team in Houston. The defense. So I think they're the better team. They're at home. Give me the plus sides on the money line plus 102. Love it. Yeah. I'm in on the money line as well. I mean, they're outside of C just out not knowing where he was a few times last season. The weakness for Houston, you know, was their run game and their yards per carry specifically. But that's not some dominant strength of the bills defense.

14:15So it's and then you add in Montgomery. And I'm not saying that's like the best things in sliced bread. But it's definitely going to help you increase your yards per carry. On top of that, I'm not sold on the DJ more bit where he is going to like change your whole season. And I mean, his receiving line was 29 and a half in the playoffs. Like there was, yes, he had some awesome games. But the fact that Vegas thought he was around a 30 yard receiver. And the best offensive mine in football was willing to get rid of him. Like, I just don't seem as this massive needle mover. And that doesn't seem to be what the Houston defense cares about or has to attack. So Houston for me, especially at plus money, Brinston, you want to support this anymore? Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, what RJ touched on with the, you know, we told him about the continuity and the differences in continuity for both of these teams. I mean, the CJ Straub's going into the second year in this offense. So I think that he's going to be more comfortable. The offensive lines should be better. So I think that's a huge step forward. They upgraded in the running game with David Montgomery, who I, you know, I've got a big

15:17two touchdown parlay. And I really considered using Montgomery and that. I think there's a chance that he finds the ends of a couple of times in this game. And Buffalo, you know, Sean McDermott, I get all the hate towards Sean McDermott. And I understand why they felt it was time to move on and maybe got the stale. But the reality is he, I mean, he held that defense together with coaching a lot over the past couple of years. And I think there's a decent chance that the defense takes a step back, particularly early in the year. RJ mentioned the scheme switch and the personnel concerns. And then, you know, what is he often going to look like with Joe Brady now running things as a head coach? Ben Johnson looks like he might be one of the best head coaches we've seen in a long time. He struggled early on last year as a first time head coach with decision making and doing certain things when you've got all that on your plate. And so I think there's a chance that maybe the bills start a little sluggish. The defense isn't very good. And, you know, we know Houston's defense is going to be a lead without question. So I like the Texans a lot in this month. Yeah. Sure, fire thing about this game is the Texans defense like that. We know there's some questions there that we know is consistent.

16:19We know that that's a phenomenal defense. McDermott was uber conservative. Well, the bills be more aggressive with Joe Brady as head coach. RJ, thank you. Well, we'll see. We don't know. We don't know how much that was the product of McDermott believing in the defense and deciding that he could win games with his, like, what was saying with his coaching on defense and not having to do as much on offense. I don't know that they have the personnel to be aggressive because what are you going to do? Throw the Dalton, Kincaidoton, you know, maybe that works. He's very efficient when he was having low volume. If you crank up his volume, he's going to be as efficient. You know, you talked about DJ Moore, you know, he was a lot, the reason the prop lines were low because he was lost as a pass catcher. He's expected to come in and be the number one receiver here, but it's been a few years since he's been that. So I don't know that you can rely on him to be a massive upgrade from Coel Shakir. We know that they don't have a lot of depth. They've been exploring for that depth guys like Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, just hasn't really hit. I don't really know what it is. If it's not Josh Allen playing Superman and James Cook running the ball as people focus on Josh Allen. So maybe that's enough to work against this defense.

17:20I'm not sure it is. You know, if you go back to last season, the bills came out and played good offense in the first half and then got completely shut down in the second half. I think it was six possessions, only three points. I mean, this is a house of horse for Josh Allen. That defense could be better. They added reblancon ship almost every key person is back. And I think this is a great spot for CJ Stroud to get some redemption. Maybe only throw one pick instead of four. You use your running game, use Nico Collins against a beatable defense. I'm with everyone on the Texas. And just one more point to, I would just say that we know what Houston's going to be offensively. They're going to take some shots down the field and use Nico Collins, but they're going to run the ball most of the time. If you have a great defense and you can run the ball effectively against a bad bills defense, but all of a sudden it really forces Josh Allen to be perfect on every possession. Otherwise you kind of fall behind it. And so I just think this is just a bad spot for the bills opening the season. Yeah. No one's asking CJ Stroud to play hero ball.

18:21We just need like not an obscene amount of interceptions, just like a paladal amount of interceptions. And we will be okay, if you're holding Houston tickets in general, let's get away from this Joe Shmo game and get to the game of the week. Jets at the Titans. Titans. One half one favorites at home. This over under 38 and a half. And if you guys don't mind if I get on my high horse here, this is one of my most passionate takes that I've been looking at all summer is the over. This line is set at how horrible these all fences are and what they were averaging, but the Jets games were averaging 45 points per game. The Titans games were averaging over 45 points per game because the defenses were so bad too. So if we're looking at a Jets offense that now has Geno Smith that can give you passing touchdowns and also give you interceptions and give the other team short field advantages how maybe it's a pick six. Geno Smith is an overs quarter back to me. And you're putting him with the defense that struggled last year. The Jets get rid of a ton of veterans. You draft rookies. Are we really going to see that improvement day one on week one here?

19:24I understand it's not going to be a pretty game, but pretty games can mean or not pretty games can still just be bad defenses here. And I think we're just really over correcting for the pessimistic views of the Jets offense and the Titans offense, but I think we're forgetting that these defenses played really, really poor football last year as well. So at 39.5, you can shop around for 38.5 potentially. I don't hate that. And I know it's ugly, but that's what I'm in on. Who agrees? Anyone hands up? Who's taking points on this? Our Jets, let's go. Sure. I'm with you. My pushback a little bit is that close game bad teams, they're going to want to run the ball, right? And so like, you're not going to get as many possessions on either side that would help you get to an over, but we're not asking for 50 points, we're asking for 40 points. Correct. You know, I could definitely could see a game where it's, you know, an ugly little 2320 typing game and it gets over for sure. That's it. Yeah. 2320. We're comfortable. That's where I'm at with this. Where do you like in here, Brin said? Yeah. I mean, I lead towards the Jets in this one. I think the over is a good look though. I mean, both of these teams should be massively upgraded in offense.

20:28You know, like, I don't think people properly understand what Justin Fields means for an under in terms of how he plays football, not completing passes, running the ball. And like, you know, it's his redemption. I mean, this is redemption. This is just like is just Gino involved in revenge game here? I mean, I don't know. Like against like it was proof is old team that he was should have been around the entire time. Obviously the Robert Salad angle, but I do think like Brissol and Garrett Wilson for me, at least in like fantasy drafts and in props and everything are massively upgraded because of the change. I think Frank likes a fine coordinator. I think that Gino's an upgraded quarterback. And then, you know, the Titans upgraded massively in terms of coaching. And I expect a lot more competent offenses against two defenses that have, you know, some players, but shouldn't be able to slow people down much of the year. Well, but there was no evidence well of that competence that you talk about. And I think they do have, you know, with Brian Dave, all they're going to turn it around eventually. But Kim Ward was so bad in the preseason. The Titans starters were getting dominated by the Seattle backups.

21:31It was 16 to three after one quarter. Kim Ward did not complete a pass longer than seven yards in 24 preseason attempts. And that's against vanilla defenses. Meanwhile, Gino is a veteran. He is competent. He goes out there as one preseason drive, seven to seven, 65 yards in a touchdown. He's got Brissol. He's got Garrett Wilson. So I really like the jets in this spot. And I like what Aaron Glendid on defense. You know, getting guys like Demario, Demario Davis in the middle as the linebacker, Mika Fitzpatrick on the back end, you know, the number two pick, David Bailey. I think this is going to be an improved Jets team. I went over there adjusted wind total for plus money over six and a half. And I think it starts one in Nashville. Yeah, you're going to want this one, Larry. I'll tell you that. I was saying that too. And I need this one because I. Yeah. I think I saw the jets were. I can't remember what book it was, but somebody tweeted out that the jets were the most bet to make the playoffs team of anybody, if anybody out there. Because I mean, you know, most of these two make the playoffs are like minus 250, you know,

22:34the bills or whatever. So it's like the jets, the jets, a popular offseason sleeper apparently. Well, you know, Miami's wind total, which both Jets and Miami, I gave out as part of my futures picks because surely both can't let me down. They're playing each other twice. I mean, there's a way. That would be devastating for me. But you're going to time both those games. Okay. But point being Miami is a popular over pick too. It's like we were saying you can accidentally fall into four wins or five wins or we gate team garbage time and people are resting like it is funny that a lot of people are on that. Another team, a lot of people are on the public's on. It's kind of become a sexy worst first division pick. The Saints covering machine to end the year. I think they covered six straight games to end the season. Looking pretty good. A quarterback winning games. The Lions obviously had all of their own issues. They're touchdown favorites now at home over under 49 and a half. We know we're going to get a high total with the Lions always one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL.

23:36But are we willing to take the spread here? I am. But Larry, it looks like you're looking the other way with the Saints. I guess correlated. Yeah, I like the Saints to go under 21 and a half. I mean, Tyler Schuck did not get a snap in the preseason. They did not. They don't have their rookie explosive receiver Tyson. He's on the IR. So again, it's Chris Olave as pretty much the whole offense and you do have a very good corner in DJ Reed that can match up against him. This is a tough place to play for the Saints. At Detroit week one, eight in Hutchinson, you go back and you look at what Tyler Schuck did down the stretch. A lot of bad defenses. A lot of short fields based on turnovers. I think they're going to struggle out of the gate and stay under 21 and a half. Yeah, I mean, I think Detroit looked a little under the weather because of injuries B because they had a difficult schedule, but like they're underlying metrics because they're point differential. All leads that was a far better team than what we saw from them and what their record showed there. I think they're going to kill the Saints team.

24:36I think just a healthier line is a lot better than the quote unquote maybe improvements you're seeing from New Orleans at home, especially in that dome. This is such a dominant offense and that should be enough just to cover this touchdown spread. I'm in the line. I think the line's on the season. Are you leading anyway? Well, if you have a total of 49 and a half, you expect to get to 50. You want some offense as I can get to 400 yards. You want them to be able to go up and down the field. Only two games with the Saints where they had 400 yards of offense last year. Those were against the Jets and Titans teams late in the season playing out the string. Obviously Interim head coach is trying to on the on the Titan side and Jets hurt quarter backs just trying to get to the season there. I don't take that as indicative of their offense. I do think that they even with an upgrade of HN at a running back and some receivers they drafted even without Tyson. They have some day three guys they like. John Johnson back. I don't know that they're going to score a ton of points here. I would play the under because I think the Lions in the second half do get a little more conservative and try to get out with the win here. I don't think this game is getting to 50, but it's just a lean for me.

25:38That makes sense. You can look at maybe the first half overs or start to isolate this. Maybe see a live bet situation. Anyone else layer? Do you have any strong or sorry? Brin City have any strong thoughts here? I would lean towards the Saints. I agree with you guys. I don't I'm not buying it like the Saints are a sleeper to win the do. I think it would win the division. It's a bad division. I think the bucks are the better bet there. I'm not buying in to that stretch to close the season. It was like, it was like like pain advertising and we people were tweeting about the search. Don't give up. It's like, okay. They're winning these meaningless games. Congratulations. I do think that this Lions defense might stink this year. I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints throwing it in a fast-paced, Kellymor offense, Tyler Schuck muses like some. The Lions could absolutely blow them out. I think that with the seven, or if you get seven half, obviously prefer that, there's a reasonable chance that the Saints come through the back door and steal this one here. If you do believe that it's going to be a blowout, like RJ was suggesting, there's some decent

26:43backup running back anytime touched down numbers. Jacob Sailor plus 360 SC, Cierney Valkyne plus 425, where the Lions are up big. They pull into your gabs and they're letting the backups just kind of feed at the entire second half. Wouldn't surprise me if you'd seen that again. Yeah. I like that angle on that. I was just trying to look for Schuck Interceptions, not seeing that off the bat on Fandall, but I think that could definitely be a market, especially playing from behind and just trying to get themselves ready for this entire season. Let's move on to the Ravens. My is three and a half. We get the hook there going to the Colts, 47 and a half, a slightly more conservative total that we're looking at here. Brinsey, do you like the fact that we're getting the hook there with the three and a half is that playing into why you like the Colts here? Do you just like them? Yeah. Does everybody know that obviously a revenge game for the Colts, for the Raven stealing the franchise in your devolta war, which I'm sure many young people think about all the time? The Colts are getting too many points here, I think. This is a, you know, an indie team that has a lot of question marks.

27:44I get that. The Daniel Georgia Kelly saying it's one where if he, you know, he might come out and we're like, oh, man, this is a mistake from Jumps Street, but this is a Ravens team that for the first time in over a decade is overhauling all the systems. And I think Lamar Jackson will be interested in going out there and showing that, you know, he can operate without John Harbour, without Greg Roman. But I also think that the Colts with the forest partner on the interior can disrupt Lamar, can disrupt Aircandle, try to do the power run stuff. And we've seen change-stiking teams start hot before obviously last year. I think the Colts are getting more than a field go here at home for a team that, you know, is at least in the playoff conversation a bit too much of me. I like the Colts a lot. Yeah. And just off that, not high on a spread, but I do like Alec Pierce. He's at a pretty low line relative to what he typically is. And it's kind of like the Rashid Shaheed pick. He's got 46 and a half where we might not get it this low again if he does pop off here.

28:44And he's someone that can have huge yards after catch. So it's like three receptions for 60 is the same for five receptions for 60. I think he could get it done in under five catches here. But if he's really Y receiver one here, not a concern is a lot more, you know, attention from the Ravens defense. But do we really know what the past rush is going to be or the secondary? There's some health concerns and there's some, you know, healthier guys and we saw last year. So again, we're taking a shot almost like a bilo spot on a guy that they just pay, but we'll see what kind of attention he's getting from the defense here. RJ, any thoughts one way or another on the spread or total? Yeah, I don't know what we're getting from either team. I don't know what to just see. Mentor air is going to look like in Baltimore. I don't know what Daniel Jones going to look like coming back from his injury. So I'm getting three and a half with a home team. I'm just going to take that as going to be my play. I think the Ravens rating for me is lower than the market with mad uncertainty from me. You know, they're being treated like one of the AFC favorites. And I just don't know that we can expect that coming into the season. Maybe they get there, but at this point of the season, I don't know that we can expect that.

29:45So I do see the value on the Colts, but I am worried about Daniel Jones. And listen, this Baltimore offensive line, it's, you know, for years, it's been an issue, right? We've worried about rotating guys in and out of the lineup. Is this year they finally fixed the guard spots who's playing right tackle. Will Barani Stanley staying healthy? The one consistency for that offensive line, it's been Tyler Linderbaum, one of the better centers in the league. They lose him this off season to Las Vegas. The guy they bring into replace him, Danny Pinter goes down out for the year, his backup who is expected to start gets beat out by the third stringer. And now so we got, I think Joe Von Gwyneth is named starting at center. First starting his career. Please put the names. I've been playing for four years. Who knows? You know, maybe that's what you expect on the defensive side. You go and attack that guy. You attack the interior. The Ravens with their canary can't run as well, but that is the situation with the interior line. And then the Colts can go out and win a lower scoring game than people would expect. So I like the plus three and a half. I like going under. We talked about it on the preseason show. That was one of my earlier plays as the Ravens Colts under because I just don't know what we're going to see from these offenses early.

30:46Mm-hmm. Yeah. And they might not know either. We have a conservative football here in this game. Speaking of conservative football, we move to Pittsburgh. We have the Falcons hosting or excuse me, the Falcons traveling to the Steelers here. Atlanta, oh, seven and one all time on the road at the Steelers. That's the third most road games without a win by one team versus another NFL history. A lot of new things going on with the Falcons obviously. The Stafansky era, the Tuah era. But will the Falcons be able to improve with Tuah under center here at the Steelers? I'm not so sold on a spread here one way or the other. Brinson, do you have any thoughts? I lean towards the Falcons here, but I mean, I think you can definitely make the case. I mean, like, I don't, there's so much unknown with what the Falcons offense is going to look like with Tuah there and how bad he was in the preseason and throughout the course of the offseason. That's a little terrifying. I mean, I trust Kevin Stafansky. He made a lot of chicken salad out of less advertising ingredients in Cleveland and

31:48throughout the winning two coach of the year award. So I think he can get the offense going enough. I don't, I think the Steelers will be fairly methodical and fairly bland. I don't trust Mike McCarthy defense at the beginning of the year until I've seen it be good. So many times with the Cowboys, he had multiple years where the defense was just one of the worst in football. And so like, that's the case for any reason and the Falcons could score. I think they're very live to go through the back door here, especially with the low total of 42. Yeah, I had to go, Adler. Yeah, I was going to say that we'll say that we don't know what we're going to get from Tuah. I think we didn't know exactly what we're going to get. A lot of thought, a lot of soft passes over the middle into traffic in harm's way, you know, very predictable slants that I think are very easy to prepare for. They didn't want him to be their quarterback. They made that so clear throughout August. And then, you know, reluctantly had to say Michael Penex is not ready. So we're going to go with Tuah. I really think they'd be better going with Strand in this matchup.

32:50But really, the other side is where I like the Steelers because without Walker, without Pierce Up Front, these Falcons do not have a pass rush. So Aaron Rogers, you know, I know he hasn't played any preseason. I know he often starts slow, but this is about the best, you know, matchup you could want to open a season with the new team. Rico Doudel doesn't hurt at all. So I'll be on the Steelers side at three or less. I'm not going to lay over three and a half. I'm going to go a little row here to the touchdown market for the first time this season, looking at Drake London plus 240. Not a lot of options. Do I think Tuah's fabulous? No. Is he minus 250 to have at least one passing touchdown? By the way, every single other quarterback's line is set at one and a half. We just have a wildly juiced Tuah to have at least one passing touchdown at minus 250. Drake London accounted for 50% of the receiving touchdowns last year, which makes sense. We're looking at him and we're looking at pits. Obviously, you have B-john, but as far as your receivers, like if there's going to be a successful

33:50passing touchdown drive at plus 240, I'm willing to sprinkle that it's going to be Drake London. And it's also just like all else fails. Look for the tall guy with the big hands of the end zone that can catch the ball. So plus 240, again, a guy who's kind of a ton of their receiving touchdowns last year. That's kind of where I want to go with this one. RJ, anything you feel enticed about with this game? I would lean to the Falcons once it gets to plus three and a half. It's funny that it's been three years, summer, and then the mark reacts to Tuah being named starter by pushing it to three and a half. They're like, okay, we want to be on this right here, you know, minus three. But at three and a half, I would play it back just because the expectations of Fran Lanna are so low, right? They're projected to be lasting the division in terms of division. And the worst division in the league. So nobody expects anything from them. Whereas the Steelers, I think they're still expected to be this mid-level team, you know, that 500 slightly better, slightly worse type team. We just don't know what we're going to get. Mike Tomlin did a lot of good holding that team up for the longest time. And with him not there, and Mike McCarthy like Will was saying who knows how he sees his

34:51D play early in the season. I don't know. They could be a bad team, you know, I don't think that they have a high ceiling. So I think the ceiling is kind of where the market has them right now. So if they are worse than we think, you know, we might look back and say this line should have been other side of three and a half. So I would take the three and a half just because I think it's going to be a closer, lower scoring game where we're teams going to win by a fuel goal, which seems like we say about the Falcons every single season. They go into week one and they play some ugly game where there's seven fuel goals and it's 19 to 60 or something. That's so it was like one of those type of games to me. Right. Chaps again. But I see two of the third and there's seven like minus one 66. So we'd kind of tough to like the juice, but it's pretty good to eat some happy. Maybe a two leger. Maybe throw that in. You could throw two to throw a pick or two to throw a touchdown. It's a core lady that probably happens to throw a pick in the Steelers defense to score a touchdown. Well, yeah, that could be good. All right, let's go to a bigger spread here. Cleveland headed to Jacksonville, Jacksonville, eight and a half point favorites at home.

35:53Another low is total 40 and a half is what we're looking at. I have this correct. DeShon Watson is playing his first game in 693 D's. Whoever you feel about him being the start of starting quarterback, we're all in our own journey there, but that is going to be the situation we're looking at here in Jacksonville. Eight and a half. It's a lot of points, Larry. How do you feel about that? It's too many points, Ken. I mean, I'm not saying DeShon Watson is going to play well, but I think the fact that this game is on the road against the non-imposing defense gives him a chance to play well or to play decently and rely on that Brown's defense, which is still good, which still has Jared Burst and Denzel Ward and Mason Graham, Malik Collins. They have a lot of talent on this defense. The Jags were one of the luckiest teams in football, 31 turnovers last year, only second only to the Bears and cleave TA pointed out. They got 11 of those turnovers in the second half of close games. Whenever they needed a break, they got it. I think they're obviously coming way down from 13 and 4, but I think they win, but it's

36:58too many points. All right. It looks like your two co-analysts over here might be on the other side here. RJ, want to make the case for the Jags? The air is going to be no such thing as too many points in a Brown's game this year. This is a bad offense. You can't count on them to go out and score points. I don't care the defense. They'll kill us to your Cowboys defense. They might not have to 20 against them. Okay. With DeShon Watson a quarterback. Maybe that changed what's your door? Maybe he develops a little bit as a quarterback and he gets better, but I think the market's still overvaluing Cleveland by putting them a level above those three and a half win teams, like we talked about in the preseason, the dolphins and the Cardinals of the world. The defense to me, you mentioned a lot of names there. They need to earn the benefit of the doubt, not just because not having miles carried, but because not having Jim Schwartz, the longtime defensive coordinator there, who elevated that unit and was one of the better ones in the league. Are they going to be as good? I don't know. New head coach as well. So we'll see. If he can handle it in his first start here, we know that the Jaguars had coaches and the

37:59coaching staff. They were very new going in the last season and they answered the call and did very well and won that division. I don't know if we can expect that from this Cleveland coaching staff. So I think Jacksonville's still a strong team top to bottom, even if they're not going to get 31 turnovers, even if they're not going to have that turnover luck in second half. And they have the weapons to post a big number on this defense. And I just don't see Cleveland keeping up with teams that have offensive firepower. I think this line should be north of 10. So I like the A-nav. I'm laying the A-nav. I'm putting it in a team as we'll talk about later. I'm putting survivors we'll talk about later. Love the Jaguars in this game. Brincy, any supporting thoughts that he didn't already have? No, I'm not with RJ. I think this is a great look for survivor. The world is going to be on the chargers and it's a cardinals. The Jaguars at home, the disparity there is like much greater between the Jaguars and the Browns and it is between the chargers and the Cardinals in my opinion. And I do think all the new faces, DeSean playing it, DeSean couldn't stop throwing picks

38:59and training camp. I mean, how is he going to throw, he's just not going to throw picks. I think the Jaguars turn him over. I don't disagree with Larry on the turnover regression, but I don't know that it happens this week. I'm trying to find a, here we go. Cures with the Jags team, total would be if you want to avoid relying on the Spronkos team to those Browns team to put up points. I'm trying to see what we can get from just the Jags because I like BTJ now that he's not going to have all this defensive attention. 24 and a half. I might just isolate the Jags and go with that over. I was going to lean the total over 40 and a half, but I like the Jags feel like they're getting off on the right foot here. I think I would take that team total. Yeah, I wouldn't, I wouldn't bank on the Browns getting to 16 points.

40:00Right. All right, let's move to a vastly different offensive game. We have a total north of 50 at 15 and a half year. Bucks headed to the Bengals, Bengals, three and a half point favorites at home. Larry, you're not buying in on the Bengals. Well, I do like them this season, but we've seen them in week one struggle year after year. Joe Burrow one and five against the number in week one. And even last year when he played in the preseason, they thought that was going to make a difference. They barely won in Cleveland 17, 16 and week one, not covering. So I got four with the Bucks. I like what they did with the draft. Their top two draft picks are going to make a big impact. Defensively, they locked up Vita Vaya. They got Baker Mayfield coming back. I like, you know, Mike Evans wasn't that great last year. So I think they can overcome his absence with all the weapons that Baker Mayfield has. But this is more just a fade on the Bengals, not going to start fast. This will come down to the wire. I'm taking the points. Yeah, I was looking at the Bengals and week one when Joe Burrow starts.

41:04As you mentioned, they just don't cover and they also just lose outright, typically. And that goes on for a few weeks sometimes. So, but I will say Tampa Bay failed to cover each of the final nine games in 2025. Looks kind of like an epic meltdown from them. Brinson, you're liking the Bucks too here. Also, a battle of first round overall number one quarterbacks. We're looking. Yeah. I like the Bucks getting the points. I think the Bucks money line is a good bet as well. So, you know, we talked about the Bengals slow start. Part of that is because of what Zach Taylor likes to do with his offense early on before things, before he has to hit the eject button and just let Joe Burrow cook. And that's run the football. Well, you know, you can't really run the football on is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The other thing, and then this is sort of more narrative base. But, man, the way Baker Maple has been talking this all season. In particular, when he said mid season, people are going to look at us and say, we'll be surprised that we won so many games.

42:05I think Baker has helped in on coming in and having a big year. I think he's a sneaky MVP candidate. The Bucks could run away with this division. And the Bengals defense while in proven detection, Lawrence, you know, is, Baker's going to be able to throw against these guys. And he's got the weapons. And he could, a bookish would be healthy. Ready to go. Chris Goblin is there. K dotten. I think Baker has a monster game in this spot. I think the Bengals will answer, but I trust Baker to close it out and steal a win in Cincinnati in week one. Yeah. I mean, it's very similar with the Cowboys to me. Like the, the Bengals defense can get so much better and still be not awesome and like still not be this intimidating defense, especially week one. And you get rid of other talent that was helping your defense, which basically almost negates some of the things you did bring into your defense. So I'm just not sold on it yet. Even though the Bucks don't have Mike Evans, Larry wasn't high on Evans either here. I think they're very alive in this game. Let's move on to the Bears who are only three point favorites at Carolina here over under

43:0645 and a half out of habit. I almost just want to take the Bears here, but are Jerry feeling that way too? Well, I took the Bears at two and a half. I was willing to play in a two and a half. I think the line should be like four. And with that, I'm not willing to lay the three. Just just a road match up week one. I am very, very low on the Panthers. Talked about in the wind total shows. I wanted to go first in the NFC so I could take the Panthers under. I am like their biggest hater this year. And even me don't want to lay the three with with the Chicago in this game. So I played it a two and a half. I'm going to be looking to see if the Chicago Reds can get home versus this questionable offensive line. And if they can, then I think that speaks well to their, their outlook on this season. I'm going to have more confidence in their defense. If they can't, embrace Sean's able to throw it all over the place. I'm going to be a little bit worried about the bears moving forward. Now I'll be looking to play some ovaries in their games. Yes. Speaking of the Overs, Larry, it looks like if you had to pick, you'd be leaning that way here. Yeah, not a strong play for me, but I do like the bears to be in a lot of overs. I mean, I believe Ben Johnson that they're going to push to lead the NFL and scoring

44:11all time. And there is a lot, a lot of talent out there. I can't wait to see Luther Burton on all my fantasy teams absolutely dominate. But I don't like their defense. I don't like their pass rush. They were so lucky last year with 23 interceptions. I mean, Kevin Byard had seven of those. He is gone. So I don't think they're going to be picking off passes the way they were. And I do think Bryce Young at home will play better than he has on the road. So I will go over the total. Yeah. I was going to go ahead, Branson. Sorry, my fault. I was just going to say, I think the pants are going to win this game. Week one doesn't have to be about who's the better team overall for the course of the season. It's definitely the bears. They're a much better team. But week one weird things happen. Dick can now just said, as we were on the show, that Chubahobber, not only injury report, and they expect Jonathan Brooks to play a week one. So that gives the Panthers plenty of rushing attack. Yes, the offensive line is a concern if they're not healthy.

45:11They look really bad at spots in the preseason for Carolina. But when they had the starting guards out there, they look fine. I think they can run the ball against Chicago. They make passive ball against Chicago. And I don't know that the Panthers and their new look defense is going to slow down. This Star Wars offense has been Johnson. But you do. I think Carolina can keep up with them. I kind of like the overs. It's a pretty good look here as well. Just think it's going to be a close game. Think Carolina has a chance to win it late. And I'll take the three at home for the Panthers. And again, it should be a good environment in Bank of America Stadium after the playoff run last year. Yeah. I want to play a prop here. I want Caleb over three and a half Russia temps thinking victory formation counts for that as well. But you guys don't really seem to think we might be in victory formation. That's totally fine. Hopefully some of these scrambles are just now just like get the four to five yards, which is something he struggled to just settle for last year. I think this is a pretty low line. And honestly, it might be a little juice now, but to parlay it would something could be good as well. But again, in my head, I'm thinking the bears are winning this game.

46:12We're getting some victory formation. We're just getting him comfortable scrambling and settling essentially after scrambling. So avoiding the spread, avoiding the total. That runs out our 1 p.m. slate, guys. Now we move on to the 4 p.m. We got four games in this 4 p.m. slate. Back to some division rivalries here. Commanders headed to Philadelphia. Philadelphia, laying five and a half. Looks like a landslide, almost for all of us here. Yes, there's T and there's drama. And there's all this offseason, lure going on with the Eagles. Still an objectively better football team than whatever the hell is going on in Washington. Like five and a half, it shouldn't be. I think this should be closer to a touchdown here. RJ, tell me from crazy for that. I think it should be closer to 10. I mean, I put it at 9. I think we're going to look back at this game and wonder why the line wasn't north of 7. I think the market is too low on Philadelphia, making too much of the AJ Brown trade. They still have some offensive weapons in place. They could still run the ball. Their offensive line is healthy. That was an issue for a lot of last year.

47:13And they have one of the best defensees in the league. I mean, Vic Fangio, go out there and do your thing. You have the town, all the town in the world, to make it happen, especially in the secondary there and up front where I think they're going to have a lot of success against this commander's offensive line that is missing Larry B. Tonsel. Washington reports out of camp where that offense does not look good. It could be pretty abysmal here. I think just like I was talking about La Buffalo, all the hope is pinned on Jayden Daniels to go out there and be Superman to make this offense work and keep up with good teams. And maybe it'll happen. Maybe he'll stay healthy. We saw the upside when he was a rookie. But unlike Josh Allen, he hasn't done it for years and years and years, but in the MVP race every year. So I'm not as big a believer there. Eagles have a huge edge in the trenches, both sides of the ball. Don't see Washington scoring much in this game. And the Eagles, I think, can control it, running the ball, put up points on a lot of their possessions and win this game pretty comfortably. So even though it is a divisional game, love Eagles minus five and a half. Sometimes I like to look at this almost inside out, like looking at the player props first.

48:14Like Daniels passing our line is almost at 200 yards, which is not a lot. And your RB1s line set at like 40 yards, like 40 rushing yards. So Vegas in general is expecting well under 300 yards from this Washington offense. And it's just like, how do you, how does that even make sense for them to be able to cover a number like this? And you're looking at that under Brinson, maybe based off that Washington offense. Yeah, I tend to, did I say, yeah, I think the under this one. Yeah, I like the, I think it was in the spot too. And I do like the under, but I think they're correlated because, you know, we know we have a new offensive setup, you know, for both teams, but I think Philadelphia's defense to our viewpoint might be the best of the league. It's going to be time. It's going to be tough. I've been less than suffer a ton of injuries. It's up there with Houston, you know, with the other elite defenses of the league. And I think that if you have an elite defense, again, we've told about the Texas before, you have an elite defense. You have a run game that should work. Adjusts out and being gone is a problem, but I think you know, they still have enough

49:16veteran players in place where they'll be able to run the ball effectively. Like, St. Juan, Barclay and Jalen Hertz could just destroy the clock in this game. You force Jalen, Daniels to be one dimensional and you get suppressor on them, make them run around a bunch. All of a sudden, Commander Span is worried about him being healthy. Maybe they may, they may pull him if it gets out of hand. They're down 21, 28 points and he's taking too many shots. You know, the day equipment fired mid season, if Daniel suffers a serious injury. So I like the under here and I like the Eagles to cover and sort of just put a bit of, you know, a bow constrictor style straggle. Yeah. All right. I thought this was like, Homer for me, but I'm glad to hear that other people without, you know, anything in the game there also agree with that pick here. Moving on to a CBS game here, Packers headed to Minnesota. I'll be boots on ground there with NFL today. Vikings just slight home favorites here. Now, this is a team like I mentioned before. The Vikings are opening up with two back-to-back divisional games. They play Green Bay at home and they head to Chicago. Could be a doomsday scenario. Could set them up for phenomenal playoff chances if they go to and out.

50:18This game obviously being the better chance of the two here and Larry, you feel good that they can get it done. Yeah. I like the matchup against, I think, I'm pretty untested and probably a weak Packer's defense until Michael Parsons comes back. So I think it's a great spot for Kyler Murray to start his Vikings career. I love what Kevin O'Connell has been talking about is, you know, you're not going to do the same things that you've done with other quarters. You're quarterbacks. You're going to design an offense that meets Kyler Murray's strengths. I love this Vikings defense. I love the fact that they got James Pierre from the Steelers, the number one cover corner in all of football last year. So yeah, I'm on the Vikings money line. We know how tough a place it is to play, especially a weak one. They'll be super hyped. So give me the Vikings on the money line. Yeah, you mentioned like this defense that I'm looking back. I mean, these games, the average total was 24 points. I think the last game was 13 to 11. Like, unders was kind of the narrative here and we still see great defense as I know

51:19we don't have Parsons here, but you feel pretty good on at least one under here, Arja? Yeah, I like the Packers team total under 23 and a half. You can play this at minus 122, a one book. It's under 22 and a half at other books. I'm fine taking it under 20 and a half for plus money if you want to do that. I do like the Vikings here. I think it should be at least minus three, but this lets us take Kyler Murray in that offense out of the equation. If we're any apprehensive about that and how they're going to look with Kyler Murray at quarterback, 20, I have to worry about that and play the Packers team total under. Packers breaking in a new left tackle. They lost their running back one. Like we know which a shakeups not playing tough road match appeared to put up a big point total against a defensive coordinator and Brian Flores that they have had some struggles against. You look at the last three games that Jordan love started. They put up some decent point totals, 20, sometimes even close to 30. A lot of short feels based on muff puns, based on turnovers, long punt returns that you just can't count on week to week here. They were pretty bad offensively in that last game and then J.J. McCarthy did absolutely

52:20nothing for the Vikings. They won that game pretty easily, 23 to 6 just by running the ball at time. I don't know that that's going to be an option here if the Vikings offense is better, but either way, it's going to be really tough for them to get to 20 points, I think, with this offense and the questions behind it. Yeah. I don't think anyone here is going to doubt that we're all basically on Vikings' money line. So I correlated here with that Packers team total. I think the under in general, 46 and a half is a good play. Super quick, Vikings receiving room and anytime touchdowns. The lines seem to be correlated to the reception percentage or amount of receiving yard to have for the team. But like, remember Justin Jefferson, he had literally no receiving touchdowns. He knew how Guy like Juan Jennings now on that team that was third in J.W.A.N. or just like, didn't have that many receptions, but had a ton of the touchdown production. So a good time to take a shot on some of these, quote unquote, not star receivers for the Vikings because those are typically the guys that are finding the end zone here. All right, let's move on. Dolphins at the Raiders. This should be a thrilling game.

53:21Raiders, three and a half point favorites at home, another low total of 40 and a half. What are we going to get from either team? Is the question here. I see a Malik Willis prop from my good friend, Brinson, and I like where he's going with it. Yeah. I mean, this Dolphins team is something, man. I mean, I don't even know. Is it Douglas and Bell at Y receivers? I mean, they don't have anybody at the skill positions. And so the way that constructed this team, it just leaves me to believe that Jeff Hathley is going to approach us as we're running a lot of read-option with Malik Willis in Devon H.M. And if that's the case, and it kind of has to be, you know, they get a questionable Raiders defense. Malik Willis has been very efficient through the air in the ground the last couple of years when he's played. It had to start with Jordan Love Out. And I think he finds the end zone. I think it's a great price at plus 330 for a guy who is an elite runner from the quarterback

54:26position. Yeah. I like this play a lot. The chat likes it too. Don't hate Malik any time at all. This is the Malik in H&C show. Make no mistake about it. It will be the entire season. But I think that might be enough. Sue me to believe that that duo might be enough to at least cover the spread here, maybe when this game outright. There's enough unknowns with the Raiders as well. I just feel like three and a half is a little generous to this Raiders team. I think Malik Willis is going to surprise some people based off our small sample size of him that we saw with the Packers. His rushing yard line. I think this is probably going to be a lowest it's going to be. Hop in on that one as well. But between him and H&C, that's really the stars of the show. But against this Vegas defense, that might be enough to get it done here. So I'm with you. If I'm playing this, I'm playing the dolphins here. A pretty lopsided game will go to the Cardinals headed to the Chargers. Chargers are nine and a half. Was around 10 shop around. See what you can find there. 47 is the total here. Chargers a very popular fantasy pick here. But Brinson, you're looking at the dog.

55:28I'm seeing on this rundown. Oh, yeah, I love. I love. I mean, we talked about this this off season, this show. And it was like 13 and a half. And this line has come way down over over the past couple of months. And deservedly so. RJ's mentioned the power rankings for these teams and how the browns are above the Cardinals and the Raiders and the dolphins and all these bad teams. So I'm in there. I think the Cardinals offense is just going to be a lot better than people are sort of expecting. Jacobi Berset, when he took over from Kyle Murray last year, that offense kind of cooked. They have tried me pride. They have Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson, they give $75 million to. There are some good players on this offense. And the Chargers are great team. I think they're going to do a lot of damage this year. Certainly to fit like offense. They can be able to score in this spot. But I think the Cardinals, they're just frisky early on in the year. And every year of the last half decade. And I think they're going to be frisky here. The whole world has the Chargers in survivor pools.

56:29And that just screams red flag to me. Maybe the Cardinals don't win. That's why you put a full unit on the Cardinals plus the points and then sprinkle the money line. But I think they keep it a lot closer in this spread. Interesting. And RJ, like you don't hate that either. Yeah, I think the Cardinals, because they are expected to be so bad, you're going to see a lot of big spreads against competent teams. And that's when you want to attack them. Because they do have the offense of firepower. Not just in the past, the game is what's talking about. They really improve their depth at running back. We know they drafted Jeremiah Love dealing with a high ankle sprain in the preseason. Might not be ready for prime time here for fantasy owners. But on the other hand, they have Tyler Rousey here. Very strong. As complimentary back in Atlanta, they still have James Conor coming back eventually. It's not going to be throwing it to Amari Dymar Kato in BAM night for 15 to 20 carries a game and hoping that works. And then when it doesn't work, putting it all on a Jacopie Berset shoulders. So I think they'll be able to go out, get a touchdown late in these games and cover. So I like them. I like them at plus 10, 9 and a half.

57:29I would still lean to them. The Chargers defense needs to prove it can be successful without Jesse Mentor as well. So you could probably, I think, the team total on Arizona is 19 and a half. And you can get even odds to go over that. I would like them to score 20 points here. So if you don't believe that their defense can hold the Chargers under 40 points or something like that, go out and play the Arizona team total to go over 19 and a half, I think. OK, OK, yeah, we can get some garbage time over 19 and a half. I'm in on it. Yeah, everyone and their mother is in on the Chargers on the season, honestly. And I'm not loving that. The team I'm loving in that division is the Broncos. And they are playing Monday night in Kansas City. The Chiefs 2 and a half point favorites at home. Again, another division rivalry, playoff implications. I know it's week one, sound silly to say, but I would say the Chiefs want to take this one at home. Looks like we're all in on the Broncos and I'm just going to keep it short here. Two sure fire things in that division is Houston's defense is good and the Broncos defense is good. And essentially everything else in this division is technically an unknown to this point. So I'm willing to buy in on the Broncos here.

58:30Larry, you agree there? Yeah, if you can get a full three, I do like the Broncos in this spot because you know, what do we know about the Chiefs offense? It's not going to be, they do have Kenneth Walker, but it's not going to be that explosive. They really just don't have the weapons. My home's coming back. I just think this will be a lower scoring defensive game. And if you can get a full three, I'll be on Denver. All right. Anyone else have any strong thoughts on this will? Yeah, I like the Broncos in this spot. You know, you're talking about patch of a home's coming back from, you know, a tornado Seattle. I think, you know, we thought he's going to be ready the whole time that was never concerned. But like the Chiefs defense, I think the, I think the strength of the Broncos defense and the lack of weapons there for the Chiefs and we'll see like, who's going to step up? Is there a word that you're going to make some kind of leap as Travis Kelsey of one more, you know, like, you know, running him? I don't know. I think Denver's a really well-cooked team. I think they'll come prepared.

59:30I think that they know that this game is kind of, you know, it's on the road. It's a division game and you're getting patch of a home. Is it probably the worst that he's going to be all year long? So it's a pretty big spot for Sean Payton to try and take advantage of. Now that one thing, two things real quick actually, was able to get plus three minus one 20 on Tuesday. It's two and a half. I think most places now you might be able to play a minus one 25. I would wait until Monday because people are going to see one strap, Patrick Mahomes gets cleared. They're going to look at that line and they go, well, Chiefs minus three, obviously. Let's bet that up to three. And I think on game day, you will be able to get the plus three. The other thing I would note, John, no Josh Simmons for this game at left tackle. So you're putting Patrick Mahomes, you know, coming off that serious injury, rush him back, play week one on an aggressive timetable and get an undrafted free agent at left tackle. That does not speak well to, I think, his ability to maybe stay healthy this season. I don't know what Andy Reads kind of think in there, putting him in that kind of danger. So maybe his health is pristine and they're just not worried at all. I would be very worried about am I going to have him in January if I'm throwing him out

1:00:32there with an undrafted free agent at left tackle. So love the Broncos here. I think they're going to win this game. All right. We have a little lock alignment here for a full game. That's the whole slate. Let's just take an inhale exhale there before we move on. We got a few, a few other ways to put your money on the weekend here and get it on the action. Parley's obviously one way to look at things. We are pretty big fans of that, but they're safe for parley's you can make and maybe it's just as simple as a few money lines here, Larry. Well, I was not privy to the discussions on this segment where they're calling a parley safe because that is nothing that I would ever utter, maybe will would, but I can know with a with a three team money line parley that pays over plus 160 that I feel really good about the Steelers to take care of two. I just feel bad for him at this point. I just think that's going to get ugly. The Eagles to take advantage of that Washington commanders offensive line with Jordan Davis,

1:01:33Jalen Carter, et cetera. Then the chargers on the money line with the new offense, Mike McDaniel, Justin Herbert, they're going to put up 30 plus in this one. Wrap it all up plus 163. Yeah, I'm actually very happy with plus 163 with three of those favorites. I like that there a lot. Again, maybe you take that exactly. Maybe you take two of those three teams. Maybe you add a fourth if your name's Will Brinson, but I may not that. I think I'm going to put some money on that myself. Let's move on to the long shot king here, Brinson. It's got to get creative. Give me something higher than 10 to one here to start the parley. There's no such thing as a safe parley. You can package a bunch of favorites, huge favorites into a parley, and it's still not safe because you're adding legs to it. I like to do something a little different. I've got two different type of parley. I want to do for week one. First, I'll just get to a long shot underdog parley. Again, what we're going to do here is we're going to take a couple of underdogs, in this

1:02:36case, five, six, everything we want to do. We're going to put five bucks on this parley and then round robin them for $5 a piece. The team's I'm looking at. Panthers, Texans, dolphins, Cardinals, Colts, Giants, Packers, and Broncos. The Texans and Packers are maybe even like minus money, minus one on there. Those are all of those teams can win their games, through their ad home as a slight, like it's like a one-point spread or the Cardinals, the only true monster long shot on there. That's why you round robin them. Round robin at four at five and then you put the thing at six. How many of you want to do? You can pick five teams, pick four teams and do the round robin. If you hit two or three of them and you get those upsets, it pays out for the covers your entire investment and then some. What we're really going to do is we're going to take some two touchdown round robin parlays as well. We're going to take three different running backs, four, weak one, and battle them to score two times a piece.

1:03:38We're going to start Jameer Gibbs. This is the most ridiculous price I've ever seen. He has plus 175 to score twice. That is insane for context. Justin Jefferson, maybe one of the best threeers here is one of the best threeers here is your football. Plus, one 65 to score once. But Gibbs, they believe in that, they don't trust the Saints defense. He's minus three 30 to score once. We're going to take him to score twice. We're going to take Javonte Williams to score twice against a giant defense that we don't trust. And an offense for the Cowboys that feeds him when they get down to the goal line. And then Ash to Genti, who looks like he's going to be good to go for weak one against what should be a terrible Miami defense, even with Jeff Hathesley calling that. And we're going to package those guys together. 63 to one, all three of those guys score twice. Round rob it by three. You do similar investment on theirs. If you get two of them, it pays off Gibbs, obviously, the Genti and the Javonte Williams version of that round rob is going to pay a lot more than the Gibbs versions. But I like all three of those guys to score twice. We're betting on that.

1:04:38Yes, I am sick. It's the Genti part of it all. Maybe I just have PTSD because I got burnt by him so many times last year. But that's why we're getting 63 to one, 71, I suppose. Yeah. And full disclosure, I originally was going to put Kyron Williams in there as well instead of Genti, but timing wise with our production, it didn't work out. So I bet I think if you're watching live and you want to go Kyron instead of Genti, you can do a little nervous. Don't hate that at all, either. All right. We love options here. I saw the chat starting to mention some teasers here. RJ, maybe we have some newer better viewers explaining teasers here and maybe what the best protocol to get in on it, week one would be. Sure. So a teaser is when you take two or more teams and you adjust them the same amount on whether the spread or even a total if you want to tease some totals. The typical is a six point teasers. The typical is two teams. They typically get that around minus 125 minus 120 depending on your book.

1:05:39And what we're really looking to do is go through key numbers, three, four, six and seven are the key numbers with three and seven being the biggest. So if you can take a team that is a plus one and a half plus two plus two and a half, tease them up through the seven to get them to plus seven and a half through eight and a half, that's good. Conversely, the other way you go backwards, you say you take a team that's minus seven and a half minus eight minus eight and a half, tease them down under the three. So that's what we're looking to do in this segment. Now there's five total teams that have teasable numbers here. You got the Texans way if you can get them a plus one and a half, the Jaguars. We know that they're minus eight and a half, the Broncos at plus two and a half and not three at this point. The Jets at plus one and a half and the Packers at plus seven and a half. Now I'm throwing out the Packers because we said, don't really believe in that offense. Don't really want to tease them at all Jets. Guys, the glaring mentioned how much they like them in that game. I think we'll like some too. Interesting because the total is so low when you look to tease these low total games that points you're at a premium. And it's a lot easier to cover on a tease number with these underdogs.

1:06:40So teasing them up is pretty strong for me plus seven and a half. Houston's going to be my top teaser just because the line is close to a pick. The books that make it a one and a half, we've seen that these books, they don't throw pick them out there on the spread anymore. They go basically from plus one and a half on one side to plus one and a half the other side if they're going to move the line. And that really exposes them to tease your liabilities since we're able to move at six points and get a game that is effectively a pick them as a team having to lose by a touchdown. We're still going to cover on a teaser. My second option is Jacksonville. I mentioned that I think that line should be double digits, getting to tease them down under three to minus two and a half is great to me because the line hasn't been pushed to nine yet. If you want a third leg, I would look to Denver, mention that I think they're going to win that game. If you can't get them at plus three, but I do think the stronger option for Denver is wait until you can find a plus three because you want to play that before you throw them in a teaser, especially when you have two strong options already in Houston and Jacksonville. Right. And what are you talking about? I'm going to let Brenton, your other tease, I think. I was just going to say just going to throw this out there to people, let people adjust

1:07:45as we move on. It looks like Brock Bowers is going to miss the first two weeks of the season with an injury that just came out while we're in the show. So that's kind of a huge deal. The Malik Willis Train plus three and a half. I was going to bring that up because I was going to talk Raiders and Survivor and not so sure I want to do that anymore. Yeah, yeah. And I would say too, if you're watching and Michael Mayer now is starting tied in for the Raiders for the first two weeks of the season, if you waited to draft tied in and you're fantasy league, pretty good pick up to go in and go grab. Oh, yeah. That's a good one. We love a little sprinkled in fantasy advice here. Yeah, let's move on to Survivor as we were just talking about. We kind of mentioned it throughout the show. Some popular picks are definitely going to see the chargers, everyone just trying to feed Arizona in any way they can. I thought I was getting a little cute picking the Jags. It seems like a lot of you agree with me. Phenomenal football team, really tough schedule. And I think there's only like two games, yeah, two games on their schedule. I'd feel pretty good about taking them with and this week one game is one of them.

1:08:47You agree, Arja? Yeah. If you're planning for the long term and you have to win a large scale pool, you have to plan when you can use teams. There's a very difficult week late in the season near Christmas where Jaguars are hosting the commanders, I believe. And really there's not much else on the schedule. You really want to be a plan ahead guy and try to put together the perfect plan and then tear it up in a week and redo it because things change in the NFL all the time. You have to be cognizant to save them. I'm not going to be that worried about that late in the season because we do see quarterbacks get hurt, teams start playing out the string. You might get some tail and green in there for the Browns and you're just going to play that matter who they're playing. You're playing them, you know, even if they're at home, you're taking a team on the road that isn't that good. The situation's like that. We saw it with the judge last year starting Brady Cook several times. So what worry about week 15, week 16 when we get to it? You know, as long as it's not a double week that we have to worry about, I think it's okay to go ahead and use the Jaguars right now. Okay. And would you say like the same chargers wise, like that's obviously not a look deep into

1:09:47the future deep into the season pick? Yeah. So my hesitancy and we'll see what you run some numbers. You see the pool projections on who's picking it in a certain large scale pool so you can see the percentages. We'll see how much difference there is between the chargers and Jaguars. My hesitancy especially in these large entry pools is to be avoid the consensus because you want to wipe out as many people as possible. So you only should really be going with consensus if the entire board is just terrible. And you're like, listen, it's week seven, week eight. I just need to get through this week by taking the Rams or whoever I'm going to do it at this point. But if it's week one, don't play the chargers. I'd rather play a Raiders team that's minus three and a half. I'd rather play the Titans that minus one and a half if I have to. Just if I know I'm going to have to get through a lot of times, not just with 18 weeks of winners, 20 weeks of winners in the big circuit contest. You got to play the holiday slate separately. In some of the other slates, you got to play several double weeks and you got to play at 24 winners, you know, to make it through in a pool with tens of thousands of people. So in those cases, you got to play these bad teams sometimes.

1:10:47So play them when they have the best matchup. And that's really what it what speaks to playing the Raiders even without rock bars. I might just have to do it in some pools because I know that's going to scare some people away. So we might get the Raiders at, you know, 5% ownership when it was probably going to be around 15% or so and got to like those odds with a three and a half point favorite. Yeah. Yeah. You got to get uncomfortable with these survivor pools. And I feel like that's definitely the name of the game. But Jags, Chargers, going to be decent picks here Raiders if you're if you're feeling a little riskier there. Before we get out of here, boys, best bets. We mentioned a lot of things. Every single game on the slate. But I want your favorite Larry. I start with you. Taking the books. I'm taking four points in Cincinnati against a Bengals team that tends to start slow. I like the top two draft picks for the books. I like that they got Vita Vega. I like that Baker Mayfield is happy now with his extension. So I'm not saying they're going to win outright, but I do think this comes down to the wire. Okay. Brinston, we're going back to I think your cutest play on the board here. The car and also cover the spread.

1:11:48It's just too many points. It's been too many points all off season. The Chargers can be a great team, but the Cardinals are going to be frisky. I think they upgraded the offensive coaching staff. Marvin Harrison a lot to prove this year. Tremac Bride and one of them now the current best active tight end in the NFL. And Jacobi percent man, he can sing it around. They probably won't win a lot of games this year. And the defense might be terrible, but they got enough offense there to keep up with the Chargers to keep things close and maybe steal something and really upset some survivables. Yeah, I'm rooting for poor teams too with my play. I love the Jets tightens over the lines. It's 39 and a half. I'm not asking for superstar performances here, but this Jets defense allowed 30 points per game last year. This tightens team like the average points for their games are 47. Like I the all fences are not great, but the defenses are worse. And I think this line is poorly skewed to just what we think we're going to see offensively. And I think Geno Smith for every four points he gives your team is going to give the other team too as well.

1:12:50So just looking to crack 40 points here. RJ, you're going to our CBS game here. You like the Packers team total. Yeah, I could easily take the Vikings here, but I'm going to go Packers team total under like I talked about in the segment about the Packers green base score 23 in Minnesota. First in Minnesota with love on the field last year, as I mentioned, McCarthy through two picks in that game. Love really struggled in that game. I think he's going to struggle here. I think the best receiver for the Packers this year is Tucker Kraft. He really like he was emerging as a weapon at tight end. And he might be a top three tight end in this league, but we know he's recovering from a major injury. And he's going to ramp up during the season. This is where you're going to get the least involvement of him. I think in them it's going to grow as a season goes along. So this is a good reason to think that the Packers offense is going to be as high-powered as it is in week seven and week eight. Even if it doesn't have Josh Jacobs back by that point. So this is a good time to tack the Packers as an under team and a great matchup against the Vikings defense, you know, attacking that left side of the offensive line. So like the Packers to not get to 24 points. Fair enough. Should be a low scoring game in general. Again, this is a look at our best bets of the entire week one slate.

1:13:55I do believe we'll probably be keeping track of these. We need some kind of accountability on this show or a new show. You know, you got to work up your credibility here. That's all we got, guys. Sub in hour 20. I'll call that a win. Covered a lot here. Got into Survivor, some teasers, some parlays. Hopefully that was enjoyable for the chat as well. Be sure to tune in every single Wednesday at 3pm here on the Sportsign YouTube channel. Gentlemen, it's been a pleasure. And if you haven't had enough of us, you can find us again on the early edge on Sportsign YouTube as well. 10am Eastern every single morning, Monday through Friday. Pick school or from this channel. So make sure you're subscribed, like and comment as well. And we'll see you guys. You got props coming Friday and we'll see you guys next Wednesday for week two.

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