What's triggered the latest argument about the Falkland Islands?

0:00Al Jazeera Podcasts Reigniting the centuries-old Falklands dispute, Argentina's president says sovereignty over the islands remains a national objective. The UK insists the territory is British. What's really triggered the latest argument about the Falkland Islands? I'm Sero Vanier and you're listening to the Inside Story podcast where we dissect, analyze, and help define major global stories. To dissect this further, let's bring in our guests. From Buenos Aires, we're joined by Diego Guilar, former Argentinian ambassador to the US, to the European Union, China, and Brazil. Christopher Sabatini is in London. He's the director of the Latin America program at Chatham House. And in Albufeira in Portugal is Javier Fadjé, a journalist and historian specializing in Latin American affairs. A gentleman, welcome to the program, welcome to all of you.

1:02Ambassador Guilar, we start with you in the Argentinian capital, Buenos Aires. Why has the president Javier Millet chosen to pick this fight with the oil exploration companies and with Britain now given that nothing that is happening around the Falklands right now is actually new. Everything that's been happening, the oil exploration, the competing claims over sovereignty, all of that has been here for several years. We consider that in this case there is a serious possibility of the exploration. Unfortunately, up to now, the search for oil was a failure. In this case, we consider for intelligence information that is possible and we don't want, of course, to happen without the legal permission of Argentina. If not, they have to face the penalties because in Argentinian case,

2:03we consider that this illegal occupation of the islands. Christopher Sabatini, your view on why this is happening now, and just a reminder to our audience that oil companies have been looking for oil around the Falklands. So there are Israeli and British, two companies involved in this project. Looking for oil around the Falklands for years, and they are now getting closer to the stage where they will start drilling that we expect will happen next year, and then pumping out and selling oil to market that expected to take place in 2028. Yeah, let's the idea of somehow that Argentina just suddenly decided because it could actually be oil there and was turning a blind eye or waiting until they discovered oil, while they were exploring and they knew they were doing that as ludicrous. Quite frankly, this is all about politics. First of all, Donald Trump said that he is reconsidering whether he would back the UK

3:04and Argentina's claims to the Falklands. That basically provided a political football, if you will, for Javier Malay, whose popularity is around 30%. And in fact, the truth is, is the UK and Argentine and US relations around the Falklands were on a good path. We'd already seen the UK and the US and NATO begin to lift some restrictions on military use equipment and the like. The idea of being in this case was that the threat was greater from China in the South Atlantic and Russia in the Antarctic, that this meridant more cooperation between NATO and Argentina and the broader world. Argentina simply can't defend the South Atlantic, given it's very deeply debilitated military. So this is not about suddenly realizing that they were going to strike oil after waiting for years to raise this issue. This is about domestic politics in Argentina. International politics, Donald Trump loves to start a fire and then just walks away from it.

4:05But this will have serious complications. It's also important that one of these firms is an Israeli firm. And Javier Malay is deeply spiritually, diplomatically tied to Israel. So it doesn't make any sense. And quite frankly, it raises a whole series of geopolitical issues that would look like we are on a positive path towards resolving. And unfortunately, the European Union is going to look at this lightly either. The fact is suddenly it's beating this drum in the midst just after America's source deal was signed with the EU. And in the midst of a really need to consolidate relations over potential chokeholds as we see with the straight of hormones. These are still very relevant. And Argentina can't defend that. Javier Fathek, politicians, especially I think in this era, define themselves by the enemies they choose and the fights they pick. So why is Javier Malay choosing this? And I'm not disputing, by the way, what the ambassador has told us. We know structurally speaking that Argentina obviously considers it has sovereignty over the Falklands.

5:08That has been the case for almost two centuries, if not longer. So why is Javier Malay choosing this? As Chris pointed out properly, rightly, Mr. Malay is a propeller that is with dwindling, very, really rapidly. Because of the situation in Argentina, there's more poverty. Many middle classes, the very, the constituted that constipancy that Milay wanted to sort of help is suffering of deaths, six million people in the middle class are in deaths. And according to the glaring, one of the most important newspapers in Argentina, basically for the people in Argentina, the priorities, poverty, the priorities, employment, the priorities, reducing inflation. Why did he do that? First, Tom said that he would reconsider the support that the US gives to the, you know, to the UK and the issue of the Falkland Miluinness. And I'm going to use the term Falkland Miluinness because that term that the UN uses in this case and in case of a, the colonization committee to the UN,

6:10he said that and then he made John to the door and decided. You feel Donald Trump opened the door for Javier Malay? He sort of pointed out he does, he basically Milay is considered, he's a staunchist ally for Trump. He supports Trump, he's visited Trump, he used it, you know, the, all these theatrical elements that constitute Mr. Milay's presidency. And this respect, Trump was very unhappy with the UK because the UK decided in the, and the, and the Kyrgyzstan, the premiership decided not to join the Militai campaign in Iran and that really annoyed Trump. So he issues this kind of threats in relation to the situation. Another element we have to say into account is that I need not buy on the new prime minister has been in power in office since July. He hasn't spoken to Trump, he doesn't say anything about Trump. He's very unlikely to change the position of the old government of the, of his predecessor in relation to the Iran campaign.

7:10And therefore Trump probably wants to put pressure on the United Kingdom in this respect. But I think it's unlikely that the Baron will actually change that policy. In terms of Argentina, use, Christopher made a very good point. One of the biggest companies involved in this is called Navita, which is Israeli company. There's 45 companies involved in this. Many of them are related to Israel as a shareholders, financial support, etc. etc. And the, the, the, one of one of the other important influential newspapers, I, Jintita picked up a quote from Mr. Milay in his speech when he said, and I quote, I asked, I asked our allies not to look the other way when he comes to our sovereignty and our natural resources. Basically, that's a code to Israel. He considered himself the most a Zionist president in, in, in the world, called and called. He's a story supporter of the action of Israel in Gaza. And therefore he's trying to appeal to Israel. Israel, not renowned for loyalty to his allies. Well, it's not sort of you give up this, this exploration and this project.

8:14So, email is a bit of a pickle because the opposition is at using him. Nobody in Argentina would dispute Argentina's claim of the Malvin, a folklore of Malvinas. But the opposition is claiming that he's doing it for political reasons, that he's doing it too late, that he open up concessions and open up the regulations of exploration of oil in order to attack it now. And also he said the sanction were already in law in Argentina. So, let me have you allow me to take it back to Argentina. Then I think it's important to hear Ambassador Gwella on this. Ambassador, what is your assessment of the, the political environment in which the president, President Milay, is currently operating? And, and I will just point out for viewers that he has a presidential election that he will be contesting in about a year. Yes, there is a momentum. Politically, this is a highly sensible, politically, sure, 100% of Argentina's, Argentinians, we support the idea of Argentina recovering sovereignty over the islands.

9:25This is a moment of great visibility because of the flag, the Malvinas Argentinians in the, in the international soccer tournament that happened in the field with our, our, our team, throwing that flag. And that went around the world. And at the same time, the mentioning of the president Trump, he's, he's very mad with, with a bridge, there is no no doubt. Well, he's mad with the world, with a bridge, with a Spanish, with Italians, with a French, with a German, with a Canadian, with a Mexicans. He's not mad, he's not mad with Argentina and Milay. No, what I know, it's not bad with us. We are, we are very close to, to the, to the nowadays, to the American administration and, and President Trump. But he mentioned it publicly that he was considering the, the, the American position regarding the sovereignty of the, of the islands.

10:36This was a good moment, especially because the possibility of the exploration and exploitation of, of oil in the surroundings of Malvinas are possible. Well, now they are not going to be possible. I don't have any doubt. There is no investor that is going to finance this adventure knowing that they are going to be through in Argentina. They are going to be condemned. Ambassador, it's already, it's already finance. The, the funding for the exploration and for the drilling of the oil has already been locked in and the drilling starts next year and the selling of the oil starts the year after that. We'll see, we'll see that happen every springtime. What tools, what tools does Argentina have? I understand Argentina is obviously a powerful sovereign state in the region, but what tools does it have to stop oil exploration and to stop foreign private companies from doing business in the fall cleanse?

11:40No, it's, it's their choice. We are not provoking a war. Yeah, we are not proposing a war with a, with England. What we are telling the investors and the companies is that first they have a choice. Now we have a great opportunity. We have billions of dollars of money that can't, wants to come to Argentina in this current political environment. And that's their option. They can't go to both places. If, if they want to work with the, with the islanders alone, they can come to Argentina first issue. And second, they are going to be through in Argentina by Argentina law and by sure they are going to be condemned. Then they can face the consequences of they are illegal and devor for us is an illegal endeavor.

12:42And not the matter of private or public is illegal in Argentina what they are doing. If they want to break Argentina law and facing that we are going, they are going to have by sure through interfall, the orders to be arrested because we are members of the entire organization. Is there, is there a choke? Allow me to seek the opinion of our other guests today. Christopher Sabatini on this issue. Do you think oil companies would actually be worried by threat of sanctions as it was issued by the, the president, Javier Miele the other day? Would they actually be hurt if the sanctions come to pass? No, first of all, international law recognizes the UK sovereignty over the, the, the, the Falcons. It's, it's not a matter of Argentine law. I'm sorry. Maybe they, their claims are legitimate, but it's not a matter of Argentine law. Second, on the sanctions, Argentina runs a far greater risk on sanctioning these oil companies. Javier Miele needs foreign investment. He's opened up the Bacchum Huerta, the Neocane oil and gas shale fields for open investment. This is his baby, if you will. This is what's going to drive his entire economic plan and recovery plan.

14:02He also has a number of UK companies in Argentina and the Bacchum Huerta fields off the coast of Madagascar, they will be giving a second thought. So the problem isn't sanctioning the companies off the coast of the Falcons. The problem is going to be sanctioning, when they sanction that other companies are going to think, you know what? Maybe we don't need to invest in the Falcons or rather, I'm sorry. Maybe we don't need to invest in Argentina because there's plenty of oil elsewhere with far better greater contract and integrity and a far more, well, let's say a far less erratic president. So that entire field that he's opened up under what's called the RIGI, the RICI investment plan, could collapse simply because of this rather intransigent inflexible fight that he's picking on an oil rig and oil investment under Argentine law, which is not respected or understood or doesn't apply in the case of that. So look, this is going to hurt Argentina far more than it hurts the UK. And it really puts in doubt the primary plank and the engine of his entire economic recovery plan. So good luck with it, but I just don't see it happening.

15:15Javier Farre, the actual underlying dispute of sovereignty over the Falcons and who has sovereignty. Christopher Sabatini says as a matter of international law, this is resolved. That is not my understanding. I've looked at and read the UN documents and they have the UN officially recognizes that there is a dispute between the UK and Argentina and they have encouraged both sides to resolve their dispute through negotiation. This dates back to the 60s and since then, I see no resolution. In fact, documents from the UN as recent as last year, very carefully, layout the British point of view, layout the Argentinian legal law. Argentinian legal arguments, layouts and UN observations and come to no conclusion quite resoundingly, in fact. So my point here is that this dispute is not resolved. And my question to you is, can it ever be resolved?

16:18It looks very difficult. Neither, neither Argentina nor Britain will renounce their claim for the islands. By the way, following what Christopher said, Argentina, the UK, Britain, what I live by the way, has really clearly that they don't need permission from Argentina to do this project of oil project in the region. They only need permission of the federal and the government and they have that permission. I respect legally speaking, legally speaking, according to the to Britain, they don't need permission for Argentina because the federal and the Venus are not from Argentina, according to Britain. The other hand, the only way this can be solved is an negotiation, but we have to understand that neither Argentina nor the UK were prepared to make concessions in relation to sovereignty. There will have to be some concessions, they will have to meet half a way. And there's no way at the time, at the moment, anyway, that's going to happen. It would be politically suicide, not only for the British government, but also for the Argentinian government to make certain concessions that would enable them to work together. So in that respect, it's very difficult. It looks like a limbo.

17:25It's like a limbo. And especially in Argentina, they use this situation to make their own political games. It was mentioned the election next year, for example. The problem is that for the Argentina at the moment, as much as all Argentina believe that the program, the Venus, we learn to Argentina, they priority, they lay somewhere else. As Christopher said, Argentina needs a lot of investment. Food inflation has gone up. There's a lot of unemployment. The middle class is the traditional constitution, Mr. Millay, as suffering as a consequence of death. That is the priority of the Indians. They don't want to, on the other hand, we don't, they, in terms of war, they won't be a war. I mean, I don't believe that the Argentina and the Republic prepared to go and do what they did in 1982. And as we know in the United Kingdom in Britain, there's a lot of pressure to put more money into the military sort of a budget because of the threat from Russia. And also the need they have to increase a budget because they only build the military believe in Britain, that they are stretched to the limit and they need to put more money.

18:26And they wouldn't be any appetite in the United Kingdom to start a war somewhere else in the world. So in that respect, we're talking about a limit which is going to run for quite a while. And Argentina or, indeed, the United Kingdom will play the political game when he suits them. In this particular case, he's being Millay who's done that. And religion to Trump, what's the forget Trump? Trump as Christopher pointed out, he makes threats and nothing happens. He threatened to clear regime change in Iran. It hasn't happened. Regime change in Venezuela hasn't happened. Regime change in Cuba is not happening. He does this threat to put pressure on the Allies. It remains to be seen whether Andy Burns, the new prime minister, has been office only since July, will discuss with Trump a new approach to things and the threat will go away as it happened before Trump. Ambassador Diego Guelar. Something to what Javier said, which is, I agree that the UN has said that this is undisputed. It has argued that negotiations and indeed negotiations need to happen. And there was a good movement actually in the last couple of years of cooperation and number of issues, including illegal fishing and the like.

19:35According to the UN, too, is they, while they recommend they recognize the dispute, they also recognize popular sovereignty. And in a vote that was held in the Falcans in 2013, 99% of those residing in the Falcans wanted to remain with the UK. So there's an issue of national sovereignty. There's also an issue of popular sovereignty. And one country simply can't exercise its rights over a disputed claim when the people in that area identify and want to rely with the UK. And I think Christopher Stavittini, what you say is, we only have a few minutes left, but what you say here is actually so interesting for people who really want to understand the competing legal arguments between Argentina and Britain. You're absolutely right to say that there was a referendum just over 10 years ago. And here are the exact numbers. So, in 1517, Falkland Islanders voted to remain out of a possible, I beg your pardon, excuse me, let me get this right. 1513 out of a possible 1517, Falkland Islanders voted to remain a British territory. That means everyone on the island who can vote except for four people voted to remain British.

20:48But you know what the answer is from Argentina? The then Argentinian ambassador to London said, we don't want to deny, this is a direct quote, the island is their identity. They're British, we respect their identity and their way of life and that they want to continue to be British, but the territory they occupy is not British and quote. So the argument of self-determination, which is the argument that Britain makes, that the people actually want to be a British territory, it's not a conversation ender from a legal standpoint. And with that Christopher, I know you want to say something, but I have to take it back to the ambassador, Ambassador Gwellore. Do you think there can ever be a resolution? Because when the UN says the two sides should negotiate and compromise sovereignty is not usually something, is not commonly something that is shared, it tends to be a binary and an exclusive thing and one side has sovereignty and the other doesn't.

21:48I have to point out that what Mr. Sabatini said with all respect is not true, there is no recognition of the international recognition of the islanders or breeds as legally in charge of the islands, on the contrary, what they said. But what we consider in United Nations is that it's a dispute, a well-known dispute every year that is a vote in the United Nations that's supported by far majority, the position of Argentina that we have to negotiate and we propose that to break Britain, to sit and discuss this issue. They are the ones that don't accept this methodology or this approach. Gentlemen, this is all the time we have for today. We were never going to resolve 200 years of political and legal dispute over the status of the Falkland Islands, but it was important that we frame what has been happening recently in the context of that long-running dispute.

23:02Thank you very much, gentlemen, for allowing us to do that. Diego Guelar, Christopher Sabatini and Javier Farhane. This episode was produced by Muhammad El Aishi, Michael Apple, Melika Yoldush and Gemaharies. Studio Sound was by Thunis Knetzey. The program was edited by George Joseph, Yasmin Al-Tahan and Joseph Frias. You can catch every episode on the Inside Story podcast and don't forget to subscribe and review us on your favorite podcast app. Share the episode, leave a comment too. We'd love to hear from you. Thank you for listening and tuning in on Sunday for our next edition. Have you ever had the strange feeling we've been here before? I've always resisted this idea that history repeats itself, but the problem is it does. I think history is like a map. If you don't understand history, you're like someone stuck on a mountain without knowing which way to go. And history allows you to understand where you are and who you are. That's the way we should look at the past. What is the aim, the past that we can pluck out and plant again?

24:04I'm Muhammad Hassan and this is Deja Vu, a podcast that connects our turbulent times to history's most pivotal moments. It's a kind of an interesting dance that happens of all of these different figures. This is only a fraction of the great history that we lost, but we did not lose anything. Join me for real conversations with historians and public thinkers who unravel the past and challenge what we think we know about today. There is so much from the past that has still the capacity to tell us how to make our way through the modern world. And we must not reject that knowledge anymore. Deja Vu, coming to you soon from Al Jazeera, subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.