Where will the Kyle and Jackie audience go? Survey 2 ratings predictions.

Gain changes radio with Irene Hume and Craig Bruce.

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that define RCS.

A survey two radio ratings are out later this week.

All eyes on the Sydney marketers will be going to see what the Carl and Jackie O impact will

be.

Not only for KISS, 1065 but over two days smooth et al.

Joining us to discuss all of the possible permutations for Thursday is former triple

M ahead of content.

Mike Fitzpatrick, good day, FITSEE.

FITSEE?

Hello, thank you.

Big day coming up on Thursday FITSEE.

Where do we start?

What about some basic survey data?

You've got some numbers here in front of you.

Let's remember that it's a share of listening listeners that went through this last time.

And I talked about my bucket theory.

Do you remember that, Irene?

Yes, I do.

No, you don't.

You didn't listen to me.

There were four buckets and I only let you get through three and then you interrupted

me at some point and said, I still haven't done my fourth bucket.

Well, there are now the three buckets because Carl and Jack going off platform is now irrelevant.

So there are now three buckets.

The bucket to these.

One, the listeners leave radio entirely, right?

That'll show up as an absence in survey, so it doesn't really show up.

The second bucket is they get redistributed amongst the other FM stations, right?

Yes.

And the third bucket is that those listeners stay on KISS because they're habitual listeners

even though Carl and Jack aren't there.

There are three things we need to look at.

Bucket one is going to be the biggest, possibly, the people leave radio and the most

uncomfortable.

Bucket three versus bucket one, that's the real tension here is, is do they stay on KISS

or do they leave radio entirely?

Because this is the first real read we'll have without K and J in a market.

So we really need to watch total breakfast, Q and across all the stations.

Does that not present quite a significant, the possibility of quite a significant problem

for Sydney radio?

If we end up losing, let's say, 400,000 listeners from Sydney radio, that's pretty

disastrous, is it not?

Yeah, it demonstrates a massive structural problem that Sydney has in the radio market

because JFK doesn't measure the people that leave, they only measure the people that are there.

But they're still going out to the agencies and advertisers and going,

we're a 13-share, we're a 15-share, but they're not going out going.

We've lost 150,000 listeners from breakfast radio and they're just not on radio any.

Yeah, Spotify, podcasts, mix tapes are all coming up as options for carlin' Jackie P1s

and that's not going to be measured next Thursday.

And it's important to have all of this on the table because there's so much information,

can we call it misinformation, disinformation out there at the moment,

just people with no fucking clue.

So it's share of total listening, isn't it, FITTY?

Does that mean today if M may very well be an 8-share?

Potentially, I'm unrealistic, but there's not out of the question.

So remember, the number of listeners shares the amount of listening in the total pool of

listeners. So, for example, say a large chunk of carlin' Jackie P1 listeners leave radio

completely, but a station like 2GB's numbers stay roughly the same, which they likely will,

because it won't be affected by a K&J listeners.

2GB's percentage of that listening in a smaller pool automatically goes up.

So they could be a 20-share without getting any more listeners.

So the other key thing I think is just the timing of this survey.

So it is February 8th to April 4th is the timing of this survey.

And the fight happened on February 20th, and the show in some form was on the year until March 3.

And in that period, even from February 20 to March 3, there was massive interest in the show.

It was a stunt, as many people said.

Yes.

We've got four weeks of them not being on the radio, not on the air at all.

And I wonder whether there's a world where we might not see a lot of change at all

in this next survey.

Yeah, potentially.

A survey three will be the real read for me, if you reckon.

I mean, the real story here isn't going to be who gains.

It's whether Sydney Breakfast is smaller in survey two and then survey three than it was in

survey one.

Yep.

Because if it is, that means the industry's got a real structural problem,

that the numbers are just going to wallpaper over.

Because, you know, as you said, you share measures how you're going against other radio stations.

But it tells you nothing about how it's going against.

Everyone else is going for attention.

Yes.

Spotify and YouTube.

Do you think we might see an upbook for Chris considering some of that?

Oh, I think that's enormously.

I get it to hear what?

Kyle was there for three days.

And then it was a small seat going in.

And Brooklyn was still there and they were still working through it.

It's a ten week sample.

And they were on for two weeks of it.

And then he was on for an extra three day.

I think it's not our look.

It's our GFK.

You think it's possible, you know, because you're relying on someone to tick a diary.

It's not out of the realms of possibility.

I think it's highly unlikely.

Right.

Okay.

So we've been talking to the Colin Jack P1s over the last month or so.

And they didn't have a plan B.

And I still don't think they have one, to be honest.

So, you know, we're not going to see a mass

exodus to another station per se.

This is not today, FM 2014, where the Colin Jack took their audience to kiss.

And it was game over for two days.

But you would imagine that Nova two day and smooth

would be the three likely stations and shows that will increase share on Thursday.

Would I be correct in that assumption?

I would think smooth and Nova would be number one and two,

to take audience, to take cum.

Yes.

And then gold two day.

And I'd have triple am at the bottom of that

in terms of getting audience from kiss almost.

I would suggest there's almost no sharing.

Why not two day?

Well, it's very, it's really, it's focused under 30

from my knowledge of it up until the three days ago.

And they're better music and more of it.

But they're focused under 30.

And that's an audience I think that's not necessarily going to move quickly

away from kissed because they're there for music.

Yes.

They're not getting it on today, FM.

Hey, so here's the other thing to think about.

So we've talked before about whether, you know,

the market is ready for this, you know,

monumental change that Colin Jack have set in motion.

But it is happening on three fronts.

I mean, Nova have had their first change of breakfast in 15 years.

We haven't seen a full result because Tim and Ricky Lee started,

I think it was February 10.

Yes, they got my two, three weeks of the last year.

Yeah, yeah. Gold, you know, the first change in breakfast in 22 years.

And now kiss, so you've got a market that's,

we don't have, right now, we have five FM breakfast shows

without a significant percentage of P1s.

There is no fan of any breakfast show anywhere in Sydney right now.

Yeah, no, you're absolutely right.

There's no heritage show.

I think the big winner, how are the ratings in this?

I've mentioned it at the start, it's going to be too cheap.

Not because they're pulling listeners,

but because they're, their share of listening

could be 20, a 20 plus share in a shrinking pool.

In terms of where would the audience move to?

I think smooth is the most obvious.

They're, they're a passive default for 35 to 54 year old women.

They're already the breakfast leader in Sydney.

Forgive me if I'm incorrect on that or they have been.

And then Nova for anyone under 35,

who have got a known quantity in Tim and Ricky Lee.

And there's genuine upside there if it clicks.

The real question will be around gold.

Christian's doing a great job in that show.

He started Survey 1 and the 6.1.

Yeah, it's low, but it's his first survey.

If one's gone, it dropped.

It can drop.

He started at zero.

He's a brand new show.

Survey 3 will be the real read for Christian and gold, I think.

I think there's an argument to the idea that in the same way

that Sydney Breakfast Show is into Melbourne,

don't work that Melbourne Breakfast Show is into Sydney.

And this is not about Christian's talent because on, you know,

that will be, I'll get a lot of people up in arms.

But I'm not convinced.

And certainly not convinced given that I don't think

I am going to have any money to market him properly.

That the show has to change.

It can't be the community.

Um, I love Melbourne show that works so well.

It has to be a version of that, which I don't think is a potent

because it's going into multiple markets.

And I'm not convinced that it's that it's going to be an eight or nine or ten

share anytime soon.

We would have seen the same result.

Survey 1, if it was a new show out of Sydney.

It was a new show.

I don't think the issue is that it's a Melbourne show syndicated into Sydney.

I think that's one aspect of it, but it's a new show.

And theoretically, it could lose cum.

Craig, it could lose listeners and still growing share.

I think the point there is, okay, it's, you know,

if it's a Sydney show replacing Amanda and Jonesy

and it's in Sydney and it's a single market,

then when you're a six share,

you're having a very different conversation

about how you get to a nine share

than when you're dealing with a national show based on that one.

But we're one survey in.

I've been shows take three years to build now.

Like through and how they got the appetite for three years show.

But if I'm in marketing at ARN at the moment,

I'm sitting down and going,

every single spare marketing dollar goes on Christian show

and it goes in Sydney.

And I'm not talking just billboards and TVCs.

What are we doing to get him noticed?

What are we doing in the West?

What are we doing in the Hills District?

What are we doing to people know that this gold 1.7

is Christian O'Connell at breakfast and Amanda and Jonesy and Drive

and is your safe place to drive to work with every day?

What are they doing about that?

I'm hearing he is loving having Dave Cameron at ARN

and Melbourne.

Yeah, that's been really good for him.

Is that come from Dave?

No, that's not come from Dave, actually, no.

Is that misinformation?

No, it's not.

Did you read the article on that?

You put me on to create the article in Mumbarella.

Yes, the formats, Henry.

What do you think of that?

Was right about the format from the smooth perspectives

at the example he gave.

So for your listeners,

essentially the article says that radio should stop investing

in the expensive talent and focus on music formats

because talent are overpaid.

He's right about that.

Well, some of them might be overpaid,

but if you just invest in music formats,

let's think about this.

Smooth's more music format is a strategic choice.

In the same way, the triple M's sport and comedy format

is a strategic toy choice.

Or a national network program is a strategic choice.

But if every station was a music only format

with no real talent on the shows

and with all, you know,

do you respect to bog out in the team it's smooth,

that's a race to the bottom and the tent of radio.

Because Spotify does it for free.

Spotify does it on demand.

Spotify gives you choice.

Spotify gives you skippable ads,

not five, six minute ad breaks after each other.

And what keeps people coming back to radio

and breakfast radio is a relationship

with a voice and a person they trust.

The lesson that Henry has missed in this,

and I'm sure he's obviously a very clearly smart analyst.

And he brought a spreadsheet to life in beautiful prose.

And he's not a cool one.

But the lesson here is that from Kay and Jay

isn't just to stop investing in talent,

it's to stop writing contracts

that don't have any circuit breakers and yeah.

Yeah, I think his other point was that there's a bit of a disconnect

in terms of what we're paying talent

and where the industry is sitting and that is in decline.

Yes.

He was absolutely right about that.

And perhaps those big talent salaries need

to be re-adjusted with that in mind.

But really outside of our end,

are there any big talent salaries

any more in FM radio?

Well, I mean, I would like to earn what fee for you.

Yes.

But before we move on, just quickly,

so some predictions from both of you.

It's the best and worst case scenarios for KISS on Thursday.

Give me a range here.

What does a good day look like for KISS?

What does a bad day look like for KISS?

Fits a Ugo first.

It's a 13-chair now with a 630-cume.

Any talking breakfast?

Yeah.

Bad days are seven-chair.

Good days are nine.

Yeah.

Bad I agree, seven.

I think a good day is a 10, 11.

Yeah, I think that's the range.

I think it's somewhere between a seven and a 10.

I think there's every chance it'll be a 10-chair.

And I think it's...

TSL is the magic bullet, isn't it?

And it's a question of whether those P1s

are just going to use it a lot less.

And whether that happens quickly

or whether it happens slowly.

But we're going to find out on Thursday.

We're going to have you back on Thursday as well, Fitsy.

But before we go, you had a question for us.

Oh, yes.

So I was talking, because I'm reading all this stuff

everyone going, you know.

They're talking to this person,

they're talking to that person,

and it's Sophie Munk.

And...

Craig and Irene, have you heard that one?

What's that?

Craig and Irene taking over Canjo.

Oh, yeah.

You haven't heard that.

Well, worst cases are three-share.

I mean, you get more from a carrier signal.

Yeah, you sounded like you were scoffing

that suggestion there.

It's all Fitsy, aren't you?

Oh, yeah.

I am.

I think, look, I think you could have done a five

if you kept weighed, but you can't even lose it.

So I'm thinking, they're putting the carpet

before the horse, the press are talking about

who they're going to hide with no idea about radio

and programming.

And so I thought, what we should do

is a little role play.

So I love a little role play, Irene.

You know, this, we'll set in the war rooms

at our stereo and the old days

and role play scenarios.

Yes.

And we blew up a station in that lake.

Craig wasn't that fun and took it down

as far as we could take it.

So the question is this, right?

You have been hired as the strategist

to come in and fix 106.5 in the wake of Kyle and Jackie O'Leaving.

Mm-hmm, yep.

You can do whatever you want with it.

You have to find a hole in the market

and you have to find a revenue upside.

Okay.

What you're good at.

So far away, who wants to go first?

I'll go first.

Okay, so the way I look at it is

it's not about finding a gap in the market.

In fact, Fitsy, every brand, every station,

every breakfast shows how they,

their competitive landscape is transformed essentially.

So you've got three audiences

in play simultaneously, a disenfranchised, kiss audience,

an over audience still making up their mind

on Ricky Glen Tim and a fair to say

an inconsistent audience for today FM.

So I would be looking at it as you've got three brands

that have entered the market

and are on a level playing field.

The only brands that have fixed in Sydney

as far as I'm concerned, a gold and smooth,

everything else is there for the taking.

It's not about finding the gap in the market.

It's about claiming the position you think is going to be.

So how are you doing it?

How am I doing it?

Yep.

I'd be doing a lot of format studies, cluster studies,

talent studies against the market

and looking at the options that will give you

the largest commercial career.

Yeah, it's going to take too long.

I mean, at a format by Friday.

The obvious one would be a hits format

just because it's the natural position for kiss.

Having said that, I would blow up the entire brand

and I'd build it from the ground up.

I would look at it as it's all there to claim.

Okay, Craig, you've been hired.

I'd go to Steve O, what am I going to get judged on?

And if the answer from Steve O is,

let's build a brand-friendly show for women

without cannibalizing gold.

And I think that would be his answer.

Then your station is, it's targeting 2554 females

and then you're in a pack of three other stations

with two date, Nova and Smooth.

And without a strong brief show,

it's really hard to drive any format advantage.

What I will say is that, as we've said,

the market is up for grabs

and all the good shows have left the building.

For a market of this size, that's really unusual.

And I think the advantage for Dave Cameron,

and we're saying Dave, Kerry Elstub is the head of content

and it could be Kerry and Steve O,

making those phone calls to Channel Nine Talent.

God, help them if that's the case,

but that could be what is happening.

But if it is Dave, then if Colin Jack don't return,

then it's an open market

and there's no reason why,

if they find the right lineup

that they can't bounce back as a kiss,

let's not forget that they're part of a network

and they've done all of that work

at the end of last year to align Adelaide and Brisbane

and Melbourne's in play obviously as well.

So it is the kiss network.

They're gonna have a drive show

that is gonna be a pop format.

I don't think they have anywhere else to go.

And I know the point you're gonna make,

Fitsi, you do not wanna be the third.

There is no bronze medal in a three-horse CHR race.

You'd see the first, second or last, as today,

you can't be first.

You can be first.

Well, they could be first, but you don't wanna be third.

And so what today FM have done,

and I think they're having looked at the format

over the last couple of days,

their music is excellent.

So three 90s, four noughties, four from the 2010s.

And there's more of it, yeah.

One playlist hit, lots of recurrence,

it's tempo, it's familiar.

It looks like a really well-constructed

Hode AC, adult contemporary

for those of you playing along at home that don't know.

Radio, and so Hode AC is essentially

just a little older than a top 40 station might sound.

So two days is in the right position.

It just doesn't have a breakfast show

to drive home advantage.

It's gonna come down to breakfast.

Dave's just gonna go and find a good show.

That would be what I would be asking for.

But then, and then the questions around budgets, talent,

and marketing.

If Steve I says you've got a million dollars for talent

and you've got not much for marketing,

then my answer to him would be, good luck.

I wanna result by service.

That's it, know that voice.

All right, Fitsi, what are you gonna do?

Okay, well you both may know this

from our past experience.

I'm a bit of a contrarian,

and I like to make big moves.

The first thing I'd say is don't try and rebuild what you just lost.

So Kirst didn't stand anything before K&J came over,

and that's what it stands for now.

It's Carl and Jackie O. were the transmitter attached to it.

So the brand doesn't meet anything without them.

Add the idea of finding a new talent

to try and out CH over, and then two days.

It's hard when you're already third.

So here's what I'd actually do.

I'd blow the form of it up entirely.

Sydney's one of the only major cities in the world

with no personality led FM talk stations.

2GB owns AM talk, and it's brilliant at it, but it's AM.

It's older, it's conservative.

It has a massive audience in Sydney from 35 to 54

who are educated, engaged, time poor,

who wants something to think about in the car in the morning.

Nobody is serving them that on FM.

We did half of the job with Eddie in Melbourne.

So the model is LBC in London,

not conservative talk radio, a broad talk debate,

stations, strong opinions, brilliant callers,

real conversations about real things.

LBC is the dominant commercial talk brand.

Any music? No. No.

No, save on APRA.

Not even a million bucks, but you know,

Carl Stefanovic walks out of nine in December.

If apparently the CEO knows him,

Carl's already proven with his podcast.

He can do long form conversation.

I reckon he'd love to take on Ben Fordham.

He'd give him the frequency.

He'd build the format around him.

You create something you can see

that he's never heard on FM.

Is it a risk?

Yes, but so is being third and third

hall, a three-horse race.

You can't win.

Yeah.

And if you're going to say to me,

but Fitsy,

where are you going to get the advertising from?

Fitsy, where are you going to get advertising from?

Oh, it's interesting you asked that, Craig,

because talk radio attracts premium advertisers,

who don't currently buy FM.

You got financial services.

But isn't problem with AWS too long?

C, C, but yeah, but I,

because they're old and they're on AM

and they're targeting 65 plus.

But if you look at their streaming numbers,

they have through the roof,

and 2GB does really well 45 plus,

there's no alternative.

They've got it to themselves.

It literally just letting them have it to themselves.

High CPMs on talk radio,

the audience profiles more valuable.

But there's a podcast layer, there's a social layer.

And that just creates the inventory

that a music station cannot offer

in six minute ads twice an hour across the day.

It's a different revenue conversation and tightly.

Will they do it, Irene?

No, not a chance in hell.

Fitsy, you know that.

But I like your thinking.

I like your bold thinking.

Yeah.

I think Craig was the most conservative.

Yeah, well, that's true.

But I mean, the problem is that we don't have enough

FM licenses.

That's a whole separate conversation.

We need formats like the one you just described, Fitsy.

I mean, I think it's about budgets

and what they can afford to do realistically.

That is going to be the question.

I mean, how much money they're going to have

to go and get a cast,

even if it's, or

Yeah, it's expensive.

Yeah, because radio,

radio salaries aren't TV salaries.

Yeah, well, that's true.

All right, well, that's good.

So, Irene is going to take a time,

spend six months in market,

do all the research and do all the back.

That really is doing the smart approach,

which is to, you know, take some time and look around.

Fitsy's just throwing one right against the wall

at a hundred miles an hour.

And I'm just being the smallest target I can be.

I'm just, you know, being soft around the edges.

So, I don't know what you think of that.

Hey, back on Thursday, Fitsy,

we will have the results on Instagram at 930

as soon as they're available to us,

they will be available to you.

And then we will record directly after that.

And you'll have a podcast and you feed

by Thursday morning, late mid-morning,

midday at the latest.

Good to see you, mate. See you on Thursday.

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