Why the Falcons should start Michael Penix Jr.

0:00football is back and this is believed your home for NFL and college football news and analysis all season long. Now let's start the show. Hello, Falco. Alex. What is up? Welcome to another episode of the dirty birds of Bruce podcast presented by Fade. July. Your host Kevin night at Falco Hall, and Kevin and we are going to do a little bit of a lot of punch-others. The first show on this particular miracle photo, will I be called? Someone over there was just like, and they really heard me, meant, in terms of reaching the point of to get you yourself out on the walkthrough. There was a flow of sort of a I'm recording this on Wednesday evening and these the Falcons have still not announced their started quarterback.

1:03You guys know my thoughts on it. I know there are plenty of people that have different thoughts. That's fine This isn't gonna be about like what the Falcons are doing. It's gonna be about why they should do this And it's also not going to be about to a tongue of Iloa I think we've all kind of said our piece one way or the other about to a tongue of Iloa I have no problem with to a I Sincerely wish him well. I mean if I if he does get a chance to start then I hope that he does great So it's really not about to a this is more about why the Falcons should start panic And I talked about this a lot in the offseason on various shows with Trashon with other folks like from an objective standpoint Why should the Falcons start Michael panics junior? That's gonna be more what this is about kind of rehashing those Off field reasons as well as on field reasons, but why it makes so much sense for Atlanta to go with panics Assuming that he is ready to go right that the great equalizer here is Is panic's actually ready to play physically

2:07Psychologically whatever it is is he actually ready to play that is the question we can't answer yet So it's not really gonna dive into that either. It's sort of like all things being equal The Falcons should start Michael panics junior as soon as he is available for the reasons I'm going to cover today And just wanted to just take a second and inject some of this Objective stuff into what has become a pretty toxic discussion unfortunately And just make it clear. I'm not really Against to us so much as I am for panics. I have no problem with to like I've said many times on this program I don't know where people get the idea that I don't like to it. It's not true. I Don't like what we've seen from to a sense basically the preseason started But that's really the only thing I don't like is I don't like what we've seen on the field so far. This is gonna be about panics though So that's what we're gonna talk about today So we're gonna dive into that right away and the first thing I want to talk about is just sort of the most objective things for why right

3:08I'll get into more of the subjective things and my sort of thoughts on panics Like towards the end because that's the stuff that I think you could argue with and that's fine Everybody's got their own opinions about panics is like play that we've seen so far and stuff like that For me, I think it makes a lot of sense because first of all he is a top pick of this team Yes, this the staff did not draft him That's not really relevant at this point. I mean, yes, they didn't draft him, but he is still a big expenditure of resources that the team spent on Let's be honest a very high ceiling, you know, develop quasi-developmental, but like more of a high ceiling swing for the fences type of quarterback we know That panics is talent is outstanding It's just the consistency some of the small things that he's got to work on the footwork being able to play under center that sort of stuff That's really been the question But there was a high pick invested. He is a high ceiling quarterback who you know at this point the team really needs to see more of to get a more

4:18Full picture, right? I mean part of that is penics is fall quote-unquote. I mean him being hurt isn't really his fault But he did get hurt right when I thought he was really rounding into form last season really bad timing But the focus need to see penics because If they don't get a look at him now then they have to go They're basically going to have to just decide that we're they're not going to pick up the fifth year option, but they don't have enough data You know, they're just probably gonna say yeah, we can't pick it up And that's a shame because the fifth year option is a great tool to continue to evaluate panics if he shows something the season So part of it is that they really need to see panics even if he's not starting week one Which is not a guarantee that he he does even if they really want him to which I think that's pretty clear that they would like to see him start But he may not be ready I think he will be starting soon even if he's not starting week one Probably within a month or so Because the team needs to get a long look at panics and obviously a panics gets hurt again

5:19That is the answer that you need because that's not gonna you know if he gets another season in the injury then he's not Ever going to be trusted in this league. So Um They need to see him is kind of the first point just straight up They need to see panics we need to know if quarterback is gonna be our first pick or not That's gonna change a lot if if it's not if it is then they're gonna have to do everything they can To get in position to draft a quarterback in what at this time it looks like a pretty good class So that's that's not the worst thing in the world, but I will say you know You this team I think would really like to be able to spend that topic on something else Offensive tackle would be great that we know they need they need a right tackle as soon as possible But they could use a left tackle too would be Jake Matthews is getting up there I I think he will play sort of Longer about who knows exactly how long that you got to start preparing for Jake Matthews to to exit stage left at some point So you know any event if it's not a tackle, you know Wide receiver would be great another edge rusher a top defensive tackle

6:21There's so many other positions that this team could really use that top talent at This is a good draft class. They've got some good players here Not needing to spend it on quarterback or not trade up for a quarterback or whatever it is you're gonna have to do It's a big deal. It's gonna make a big difference for this team's offseason plans Um, the second part is also off field and it's just the fact that Penix is by far the cheapest option. They will have at quarterback at this stage other than like jacks trans starting Which look if jacks red wins the quarterback job? You're not gonna see me being upset about it Um, just that's still like a very remote possibility and I'm pulling for jacks trans I know we all love jacks trans. I'm super happy he's on this roster But I'm not planning on that being a thing so Penix is at this stage going to be the cheapest option that they can reasonably have for 2027 at minimum, but probably 2028 as well and we're talking in terms of cash um Penix is cap hit this season for instance is 6.2 million that is backup quarterback money

7:26next year 2027 It's 7.3 million essentially That's like high end backup money, right? Um, it's not a lot minimal contract very cheap still now the fifth year option We don't know exactly what that's gonna be yet. So going off of Last year and adding a little bit my guess is if if Penix does start this year He will probably qualify for like the playtime incentive level of the fifth year option This year it was 25.9 million for quarterbacks. I suspect next year it'll probably be like 28 or 29. I don't know exactly if Penix makes a pro bowl this year that number will skyrocket But wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he's that good that he makes the pro bowl, right? So It has to be on the original palette too. I know there's some shenanigans with alternates It's not that doesn't count has to be uh, you know a real full pro bowl selection So if he makes the pro bowl, I'll be happy to pay him the extra

8:27The extra money on that fifth year option, but I'm guessing it'll be about 28 to 29 million when it's all said and done And even that is like below You know, that is like less than average starter money at this point. I mean 30 million is kind of like the going rate for average quarterback um, and you know a lot of guys are getting 50 plus now so It sounds like a ton of money and it is it is a lot of money in you know all respects But in terms of NFL quarterbacks paying penics 30 million or 28 million or whatever it is Uh, on that fifth year option Way less than market rate for a top quarterback Um, and it's basically average starter sort of money um The other thing to keep in mind with that though is that when you pick up the fifth year option It becomes fully guaranteed And you can't get out of it unless the player gets like suspended or something like that that that does you know Potentially void it, but It is like a commitment so with penics is injury history that can be risky right but you know is it more risky to have an open market thing

9:33Where it's like well if we don't now we could have had him for 30 But now we're going to have to pay him 50 so You know that's why teams like to use the fifth year option if there's even like a 50% chance that this guy is your quarterback It's better to just have that team control and then you can always extend out of it or do whatever you want Um, if you decide to go that route so I think from a salary perspective from a team control perspective because they have the option to keep penics for up to two more seasons Without risking any sort of other stuff here without risking any franchise tags or swooping in and and you know teams trying to sign him away or or any sort of negotiations They can just have him under contract for two more years One of those will be extremely cheap the other one will be more like average quarterback money But still a good price quote-unquote and you get so the fuck it's gonna have two more years plus this season to evaluate penics if they so choose That is good um that is nice to have and again

10:34That's just talking about the salary like it's also the lowest cost in terms of draft capital because he's already on the roster You don't have to spend a top pick you don't have to trade up you don't have to do anything You've got a guy here, you know theoretically that you would like to start in this scenario So it's the cheapest from draft capital and salary standpoint to just keep Michael penics here on the roster Those are the two big things working in penics his favor from a purely objective off field standpoint I know everyone's like oh he's so old he's 26 this season You know he's an older quarterback prospect. There's no doubt about that But quarterbacks play so long now that you've got like a decade probably before you're really even thinking about Maybe looking at another quarterback if he's a franchise quarterback, which we don't know that yet But there's still plenty of time. There's still like Three more contracts maybe for penics, you know too at least so That's not really going to factor in I don't think the agent this point is a huge deal for Michael penics

11:34The other thing that we'll get to in just a moment is that I think penics was better than people remember last year And I want to talk about sort of what happened last season that I think For people that are just remembering the end of the games and not everything leading up to the end of the games might Think differently about penics and you know shout out to obviously avian and other people that have really gone back and like looked at a lot of the losses And seen what happened and you know there's there's reasons to really think that penics did everything he could to win those games Actually played really well at the end of those games and the the Falcons team Let let him down the team lost the game not Michael penics quarterback wins the terrible stat We know that but we're gonna get into that just a second real quick guys like I mean I've told the story before but you know Back when back when I was a new football Prognosticator, you know teenager basically

12:35I used to like you know lurk on the site right fan post you all kinds of stuff I was hoping that eventually you know the man himself Dave showed what would take notice and and be like oh like maybe You know maybe you want to write for the Falcons like that would be cool right Um, and it took a while you know and and I did have to go and write at some other sites I wrote for blog dirty for instance in some other places and then eventually Dave did notice me But when you're hiring it's helpful to know who really wants the job You don't necessarily need the unusual stunts you just need zippercrooter and on zippercrooter Qualify candidates can add a personal note to tell you why they're interested in your job So you can see the most motivated people right away right now you can try it for free at zippercrooter.com slash audio Pull up the little overlay they got from me here nice um So guys zippercrooter has a new feature that shows you the most interested and qualified candidates first So you can meet the right people for your job faster zippercrooter's powerful matching technology helps you find qualified candidates quickly

13:37And candidates can tell you in their own words why they're excited about your job So what are you waiting for folks zippercrooter makes it easy for amazing candidates to get your attention Four out of five employers who post on zippercrooter get a quality candidate within the first day You could try it for free at zipbrokrooter.com slash audio that's zipbrokrooter z ip recruiter.com slash audio Meet your match on zip recruiter. Thanks again to zippercrooter for sponsored today's episode all right Moving on to to the some of the more subjective stuff here, but you know, I think if folks go back and watch A number of penics is lost as last season. I want to say it was like four out of the six um Some of those were overtime losses some of those were losses due to missed Feel goals some of those were losses due to the defense giving up a drive after penics had gone down and taken the lead at the end of the fourth quarter I think if you were to go back and watch the film which which I did and and again shout out to some of the other

14:39content creators that have put together you know some of the Stuff that made me want to go back and watch his nine games a little bit more from last season And honestly in 2024 kind of the same stuff was happening as well We saw penics. I think you know start a little slow in some games and and again the consistency is sort of the issue with him or it was last year He really heated up towards the end of games especially in the fourth quarter in crunch time And that is a really valuable skill for a quarterback to have that sort of killer instinct at the end of games Because that is where you Become a champion or you become just a good quarterback, but couldn't get over the hump and um I think penics has shown a lot in that scenario um, you know, I he's not credited with any fourth quarter comebacks or game winning drives because they haven't won Any of these games due to stuff outside of his control um, I think he should have four Game winning drives are four fourth quarter comebacks on his resume at this point

15:43And he doesn't have any the stats don't really tell the story here and you know It's subjective right. It's hard to say. Oh, well, if maybe they've done this or if you had made this throw earlier Then they would have won instead that's all like true, but I think ultimately you look at the body of work of Michael Penics and you come away like I think watching a lot of these games and being like this guy is better than I remember I remember like I feel like we weren't necessarily sold on him when he got hurt. I think that was true But he had started to play better. I think that first half against The the panthers was looking like one of his best games I think it was at the point he was basically like at a near perfect quarterback rating like it was going really well Obviously doesn't work out. He gets hurt There are a lot of little nuggets in his profile that give you confidence that this this could be like a third year breakout guy And part of it obviously has to do with the system around him I think we all knew that Zach Robinson system was

16:44Not well constructed I don't know who it was built for but it looked awkward when both Penics and cousins were running it I know a lot of people think that cousins came in and played better than penics Wasn't true There are a lot of stats that actually show that the offense was better with penics even though again the Falcons won some games with cousins wins aren't indicative of quarterback play Necessarily obviously good quarterback play is correlated with winning more games but And such a small sample size. It's easy for things to be skewed and messed up So I would encourage people to go back watch the six games that penics lost and I think you'll come away feeling like four of them. He should have won like four of them he played well in I think two of them you know that there were some rough games in there like I'm not saying the penics had a perfect season or LaHead of Great season or anything like that But I think if he had finished the year we probably think a lot differently of him for many reasons Not being worried about the injury would be a huge one But I think we saw enough from penics last year that

17:47Like him being given the starting job this year or is not like a crazy thing I think if you watch that tape you'll you'll be like I think this guy's a lot more interesting than two at Tunga Veloah And again not meaning to slander to a Tunga Veloah but If you watch any game from two last year that wasn't the Falcons game You know that was two as best game with the season but He they were just picking on JD Bertrand all game essentially By the way JD get healthy soon. I saw JD Bertrand was put on IR sincerely hope that he is able to recover quickly And you know had congratulations to Bertrand for making the roster honestly You know, I thought he was playing better at this preseason so good for him um Trying not to make JD Bertrand the butt of every joke Glad he made the roster. Hopefully healthy soon You know, there's a tough out there it's tough out there for JD but um I think we've seen a enough from penics To feel like excited about the possibility of him starting and some of the the nox on his game

18:51We're completely ridiculous and I think we've seen those proven like he can't take under center snows because his knees are bad Like he can't bend over and take an under center snout. That was just proven immediately this off season I can't believe anyone actually thought that that's such a ridiculous Statement like there's nothing special about taking an under center snap guys like you don't have to contour your body Or do some weird stance to be able to get under center Like if you can run and bend over and take a knee You could take under center snaps like this such a ridiculous state when I can't believe it ever had any oxygen But yes to be clear panic skin take under center snaps and you know That's gonna be an adjustment for him. I imagine and I'm sure that's part of this 11-11 warmup I mean, I know they were practicing him taking snaps previously but doing it with full team and all that is is different thing But I think from an objective for like a subjective standpoint here I'm excited to see what pennies can do this year

19:52For for the objective reasons but also the subjective reasons of I just think the ceiling of this offense With penics playing well is is much higher than two I I you know and a lot of people would disagree with that And that's okay. That's your right, but um, I I think the the ceiling of the offense with Penics is significantly higher. We know he's a player who loves to push the ball down field even You know His yards per attempt have been pretty good, you know seven point two very respectable adjusted yards per attempt even better 7.3 I think he's done a good job at taking care of the football and part of that is the velocity he throws with makes it really tough to pick off That's a good thing You know, I think in in nine games pennies through nine touchdowns to just three interceptions He has a career TD to interception ratio of 12 to six So two to one that's what you're looking for you want two to one or better right so he's he's right on that mark um

20:52The sack rate last year was high It that part of that we know had to do with the offensive line, but part of that has to do with pennics too and um, you know He it's not a horrible sack rate, but it was fairly high. So um, you know, that's something he's gonna have to work on um I just think at the end of the day Penics and his ability to threaten down field is gonna be a lot more beneficial to this offense that really probably wants to run the football Then to uh who is probably going to be checking down the ball Constantly that's what we've seen from to uh That's probably what he's best at and most comfortable at right now I don't think to is going to be pushing the ball so I just feel like the setup of the offense with i think to a like Honestly would be a fine backup in this situation Someone that like if he has to come in it's gonna be a lot of short stuff It's gonna be efficient dink and dunk style stuff it can keep the offense on track Hopefully, you know, not too many issues, but I feel like going in that with your your season long thing

21:54Teams are just gonna start sitting on the short area of the field knowing that two of can't really threaten the rest of the field And it's going to eventually run out of gas it might work for a little while You know the focus might be able to catch some teams off balance that I think they do have some good skill position guys They can make the most of some of those yards after catch opportunities, but at the end of the day PENIX launching some deep bombs even if they only connect you know a third of the time right I think that threat That teams have to fear that is critical for this offense is ability to Force teams out of the box um because bjohn is gonna have to Carry the load. I think we know that I hope PENIX can again be be a better more efficient quarterback more consistent Threat in the passing game more so that bjohn doesn't have to take on quite as much play at the end of the day It's gonna be bjohn show and if he has to go against stack boxes every single play It's gonna be tough sledding. It's gonna be tough to build an offense out of that and and have that level of success on a consistent basis

22:55You could do it against bad run defenses, but against good run defenses if you're not pulling safeties out or or threatening the passing game It's just not gonna work. It's not gonna be good enough. So um Real quick guys want to get you word from our sponsor over at fandule before we continue on here week one is on the way we all know this and You know not much has changed with these odds the Falcons are going to Pittsburgh where they've never won for the record They're only three point underdogs. They get to the Steelers So that is an interesting number not a big number one of the more narrow spreads of week one But you know it's week one a lot of chaos can happen. So nobody's really going too crazy there, but Right now if you want the money line on the Falcons it's plus one 48 and the over under currently set at 42 and a half so Fascinating game coming up. It'll be a tough test obviously for this offense. I imagine it will be very run heavy if they can manage it But you know but we'll have to see the Pittsburgh still there's themselves are dealing with some offensive issues

23:58So could be sort of a low scoring slopfest, but uh, you know Falcons are kind of built to win that type of game this year so maybe maybe they'll finally get On the right side of one of those games for a change, but thanks to get to fatal for spots or the show But yeah beyond beyond that. I just um, I feel like I said I think there's a lot of objective reasons why it's just better for this Falcons team to To get Michael penics on the field as quickly as possible to get a full evaluation of him So we know what's going on going into 2027. Do we need a quarterback high Can we afford to are we in position to draft one you know if penics plays well probably not in position to draft one anyway But being able to spend that first round pick on offensive tackle or a while a top wide receiver prospect or another edge rusher or a defensive tackle or whatever whatever it might be That would be huge for this team because you've got quarterback figured out at least for a year or two Still evaluating likely, but again next year very cheap contract for Michael penics

25:02There's not really a long-term future here for to a tongue of iloa even if he plays well. I feel like I don't know who's going to be willing to invest into it if to a comes out and plays well Is the are the Falcons really gonna give him another contract? Is any team really going to do that with with his health the way it is being you know one concussion away essentially? I don't know I think that even if two of plays well, it's unlikely he's going to be the future here in Atlanta the Falcons of course Might try to do a one-year deal or or like something small But I don't think two of wants that So I think it's in the best interest of both teams honestly For penics to start and and for two would it go elsewhere and I I do wonder if that will ultimately happen That two will be traded this week. I think the four quarterbacks thing There might be something to that they're holding And they're just waiting basically for final confirmation that penics can start and if he can they will trade two if they if they can um and move on to

26:05The three quarterbacks that they have go go with Cooper rushes the back up if they can get anything for two Get him in a better situation, you know for him as well um I think they will probably do that but We'll see you know projecting trades always a dicey proposition But I think that's I don't think they're really going to carry four quarterbacks forever So we'll have to see how that plays out but You know by the time you read this may by the time you see this pod maybe they will have already named a starter Maybe it's penics maybe it's two. Maybe it's Jack's strand. I don't know who knows what this Falcons teams do in these days But you know either way this should still be informative for you and even if it is two Like to start or whatever. I still think this applies beyond week one because again I think penics is if penics doesn't start this week. It's because he's not ready to play yet for whatever reason the they for the coaching staff Decrease but I think he will probably be playing soon either way, but either way Thank you guys for joining me here I'm Kevin Ida Falcaw Kevin here on the dirty birds and brews podcast presented by fan duel

27:08Really appreciate everybody hanging out watching please like and subscribe Or trying to get to 10k subs here. We're working on it. So thanks to everyone who's already taken part and done that And if you want to support the show patreon.com slash falconc live for the podcast Enjoyers or the youtube channel memberships if you're more of a video enjoyer May get another small episode for Early next week, but if not we will be back for live on Wednesday With Trashon and possibly some other guests for the season kickoff show and of course we'll have a game preview for you With uh Steelers guest we're gonna have Jared Bailey joining us for behind the steel curtain So we'll get a Closer look at the Pittsburgh Steelers and then of course we'll be on to the game itself on Sunday at 1 p.m So looking forward to it guys week ones just around the corner And we're gonna have hopefully a better season this year that that's what I'm hoping for But in the meantime guys, thank you so much for hanging out. We'll see you next time on the dirty birds and brews podcast have great day folks If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review and subscribe

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