With Will Hill – NFL week 1 Best Bets – Sports Betting

0:00Hey, it's Kelly Rowland. You may not know this, but I have Exema. So I get how it can steal your time. But why let Exema take over when you can talk to your doctor about Epglyce? Epglyce, lubricism app LBKZ, a 250-mg per 2-mg leador injection, is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older, who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kg with moderate to severe Exema. Also called a topic dermatitis that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies. Epglyce can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you are allergic to Epglyce. A allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have newer, worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Epglyce. Before starting Epglyce, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Paid partnership with Lili Respect your time. Ask your doctor about Epglyce and visit Epglyce.com or call 1-800-LiliRX or 1-800-545. A colossal monster, a city in ruins, no way out, except inside of the all electric Toyota

1:06CHR. John show stars in, escape. Test drive Toyota's new all-electric family today. Toyota, let's go places. Music, food, art. These things define and unite us, and they come in colors that breathe culture. Colors that connect us with their variety and richness. We'll find that same variety in Valsvar Ultra paints. Great coverage and durability starting at $29.90 a per gallon. Enjoy everyday protection against scuffs and wear with a smooth, washable finish. We're made of colors. And with Valsvar Ultra, you can reflect that pride of culture you have inside on every wall of your home. Available at Lowe's Welcome back to podcast 80 of 2026. I'm your host, T.Evo. And you can follow me on next at OBK Falsett, the Osbriggers.

2:09Falsett Social Media Slash the Osbriggers. This episode is being brought to you by Fandall Sports, a proud partner with the NFL. If you like sport, the Osbriggers and benefit from our preamplaced, please visit the osbriggers.com, click shop, become a member of Pckiny. If you're only kept, just get the preamplaced before the line moves. You can also support us on patreon.com. If nothing else, please visit the Osbriggers and become free picks and telegrams subscriber. The NFL never sleeps, right? Well, it sure is how woke up this week because week one is here. And we had a terrible game to watch last night, which was, I don't know, I kind of was boring, but it is what it is. But anyways, we hope not all the games will be boring. And we certainly don't have a boring guest in Mr. Will Hill from Viesin to talk about these wonderful NFL slate of games coming up. Very exciting stuff for some people. I have some decent line value on some stuff. I'm waiting for some lines to move. I'm going to discuss all that with Will. Normally at this point of the podcast, I start talking about trends, but it's way too

3:10early for trends. Maybe week one trends, and I already told you that dog in the division, not even just home dogs, home dogs are better, but dogs in the division have been absolute fire when it comes to betting week one, where there's so much variance. So that's your focus this week. I mean, careful bet in the cowboys, careful bet in the Eagles, careful bet in the Rams. Any of these division games are very sus this week. So I'd be very, very, very careful to do that. There's a couple other ones though. I wanted to mention in division, we have Green Bay, Green Bay at Minnesota. So be careful. I mean, that one's almost a pick as it is, right? Then you have Denver against Kansas City. I think I gave that play out a long time ago.

4:12You know, I like Denver there. You almost feel like AZ LA Chargers is a division game, but it isn't. But now that line moved way past where we bet it. So we have some great line value on that. And obviously Cincinnati tends to suck in the very first game. So you gotta be very careful about that. But now that's all I really have to say about trends because this is week one. And who cares what's covering? There is nothing covering in the preseason. I mean, that has nothing to do with week one. As a matter of fact, some teams that went O and 16, O and 17, whatever, for the, they actually won all three preseason games or all four preseason games back when there was four. So I certainly don't look at the preseason as a predictor of regular season football. Some super bowl champions lost all their preseason games on the flip side. So you know, keep that in mind as well. But we have a wonderful guest. Will Hill, we're going to talk a little bit about the NFL week one slate and maybe a

5:14little half time when Will pops on. So make sure you tune in Thursday nights. It's going to be during the game or after the game, most likely half time. That's what we're going to target. It's a punter guest to go live on YouTube and talk a little NFL. So without further ado, let's bring in our wonderful guest, Will Hill from Bearbetspod and V-Syn. $30 million in guaranteed prizes. Cash in this football season in Las Vegas with three circus sports contest entries starting at $1,000 all with no break. Circa million, 18 weeks of point spread action, 128 ways to win. Circa survivor, pick one winner each week, last one standing wins and Circa Grand Isomo with $100,000 entry in over four million in guaranteed prizes. Enter a Nevada play from anywhere. $30 million guaranteed, visit circus sports.com for details.

6:20Now I am very excited to welcome back one of the best cappers that I know, Mr. Will Hill, from Bearbets, V-Syn, as well as the should of that more podcast. You can follow will on ex at not the Will Hill. Man, what a barn burner that last game was, wasn't it, Will, Holy Cowell, just a hell of an NFL start here. Yeah, it feels like it's great to be with you, thanks for having me. It feels like in the NFL, it's, I almost say it's WWE, but you almost get like a close game every time where anytime somebody starts to pull away, the other team gets the flags in their favor. They make a run, the defense gets soft, whatever it is. And very rarely to get just a dud. This was a dud and I was just saying this recorded my podcast and it's kind of a weird take. It was a weird feel, but it was just, it threw me off that the game was in the middle of the day. We're sitting here at, you know, 9, 10 o'clock at night here, prime time game, Rams 49ers, two of the best teams. And then it's just in the morning, middle of the day. For some reason, it almost reminds me of like, you know, a TV show.

7:22Like you're going to watch a rerun of the sopranos. You're not going to watch it at 10, 30 in the morning. That's a night show. This felt like a night game and we weren't watching a night game. I don't know why it threw me off, but it did for some reason take away my enjoyment of the game, yeah. Well, they prefer their sleep specialists over there. I don't know what the hell they're thinking. Every time I go on vacation when I arrive at the frickin' hotel, I'm a big pile, man. It doesn't matter how much sleep I got the night before. The 49ers did it right. They got there. They got acclimated. Got the thing in the game to smell the air for like days and days. That's just how you get acclimated to the game. You know, just think you can over think something that's been going on for years with traveling and people and things like that. But, we'll see if they pay the price. We'll see if the Rams, if this was a calculator risk, you know what? We'll co-there. We'll see what happens. And granted, they did the same thing against the Jags. I think it was last year and they absolutely buried the Jags. We'll see if there's just less of a hangover for the Rams. And you know what, maybe this is one off. Weird things happen in week one.

8:23The Vegas raiders beat the Patriots in New England. Maybe the Rams are just a little old. I'm not ready to go there yet. But Stafford did not look good. Again, who knows how much of it is rust? And that's one takeaway, yeah. From the first couple of games here. Be very aware. Be very cautious here of playing anything over. Because there's just not a lot of continuity. There's no Christmas with these offenses. They don't play together in the preseason. Not at all. You know, there's just no continuity, no organization, no timing. The first one was a dead nut under. Granted, the quarterback got hurt for Seattle. But both of these first two games, very sloppy in terms of the offenses. It's hard not to look at some of these unders. Yeah, I hit the under at least. That was the bigger bad at least. But I'm O and two for prop bets because the whole Darnel getting hurt messed up my AJ Barner tight end. They didn't even, it's not even like they had a tight end yesterday. We can get into that game in a second. But when I want to quick say here's, it's like Miles Garrett barely plays.

9:23You know, they say, oh, he's kind of picked up. It's like, is he a diva already? I don't even know. They did, they looked like they were just completely the thargic. And yeah, we give Drake May so much shit. And he probably, being that he's young, that's what they think. But Matt Stafford earned his way into this and looked pretty bad. And I mean, he missed to Vantean was wide open on the first counter. I'm wide freaking open. I mean, oh, yeah. There was some, there's certainly some ugly in his side. But you know what I think that preseason, I understand not playing your star. I don't want them hurt. But we have to just remember that preseason is for making the team. And the first two weeks of the NFL season is for getting your feet wet, right? And that's what makes survivors so dangerous. Now, I got my survivor hat. Yeah, I'm sure I'm, I was going to mess with you and say I lost on the Rams, but I, of course, uh, did not get in. Um, I, I did not get on the Rams. I'm going to pick somebody else, but I'm sure there's a lot of people that, you know,

10:25just because they know they can buy back in, probably pick the Ramses came will. Yeah. And, you know, it's, you talk about survivor strategy. It's almost like so many people now. There's so much survivor content out there that people get cute. They get clever. Let me take the Rams or the 49ers. Let me take the Jets Titans game where it used to be, you want to stay away from the big favorite because everyone's going to take them and you want to be contrarian. Now it's almost contrarian to take the big favorite because everyone kind of out thinks themselves. That's for sure. That's for sure. Um, they do until week three and then all of a sudden, uh, they are scared shitless to go out and then it's big favorites all the way through, man. That's just how the, the big ones are anyway. That's how I've remembered. I like road favorites personally in some of those situations, but that's, we can give you a chance to get in the survivor another time. Aaron Donald, I didn't see him do much either. This was a weird game for sure. And you know, I, I'm not going to downgrade the Rams much.

11:28Maybe it may be a touch, but I'm throwing this game away and we'll see what they do when they're back in the States. Nicely slept and, uh, back at the hometown. I think that's one last thing on this game. 17 to seven, 40, uh, and this is where the game turned. It looked like twice the Rams had a touchdown. I thought the past in the Kua. I thought he was in. It wasn't challenged. I know they kind of looked for this stuff from above. So maybe he wasn't in, you know, I had some issues with Netflix. So I had to go out to watch this. Maybe I didn't have the best angle. I thought Neku was in. Then I thought Stafford was in. Not that you could overturn it from that angle. If that's 17, 14, you know what? Who knows? It's anybody's game, momentum, all that stuff. And you know what? You did have the 49ers backed up at their own one. They went 99 yards for a touchdown. So maybe it wouldn't have mattered. But I was surprised. I thought the game really turned on that play. I thought Neku was in. And if it's 17, 14, who knows where it goes from there? Brock Purti started bad and then he went to hanging confidence. The plays really developed for him. You saw guys like Debo Samuel, uh,

12:31from back from the old days, make some big touches and we had a big injury to the rookie for the Niners as well, struggling. He went out on a cart. So I don't know if you saw that because I know you had a dry, that's tough because a lot of people had them in him and his as fantasy sleeper and other bets. It's a tough one. I got him 65, I got him 65 to one. You don't know. Yeah, that's not cheap. For not an insignificant amount of money. So I'm, you know, you get these good numbers. He closed like nine, 10 to one. You get these good numbers. You just hope for the best. I saw the recent report. She and him said it's an ankle injury. So I mean, I sit here, play doctor on your couch, whatever. I thought maybe in the killies, but not the way you want to start. For sure. I'll take angle over your killies any day. I hope he doesn't mean that, but obviously the MRI is going to develop more. It's could be one of those AJ Brown type high ankles brains that we saw going to the Patriots, Yox game. Everyone's given Drake May crap. I thought Drake May sucked. He did. He was way off. He was throwing little floaters up there that one touched on.

13:32They got was based upon one of those short throw PIs that we texted about a little bit. You know, I hate those, but that's just part of the game. They want more points. They're not taking it away. I'm not, you know, it's just the way it is. But it's just like he was bad. And I think that took some of the window of sales when AJ went out, but man, it was the interceptions. He literally lost the game for the Patriots. It wasn't so much Matt Stafford as much as it was the Rams defense. I think it was definitely Drake May throwing those picks. It's like you could have tied the game and you went for the end zone and threw it right to somebody. So I was very disappointed with their performance. Not from a betting standpoint or anything because I don't like the Patriots. I was disappointed in just what the expectations were when you play against Drew Locke. You know, I mean, you should have won the game by seven, 10 points. That's a horrible loss from New England. I mean, you get the break of all time. Donald is out the first drive. The second areas beat up. The quarterback is out. You're up 10 to nothing. And 10 to nothing in that game felt like, you know,

14:3324 to nothing. 10, nothing felt like an instrumentable lead to lose that game and lose it the way they did. That's a horrendous loss against week one. They lost week one last year. You don't want to sit here and completely overreact, but boy, you know, I just, I don't know. I wasn't high on the Patriots coming in, Super Bowl hangover, all the variable stuff. The schedule was so much harder this year than last year. And that was just, that was a horrible front all the way around. Not just May, I thought McDaniel's called a bad game, Vrable, the offensive line, I think still has some issues. That was a, boy, you can't lose that game if you're new in. Can't just can't. Well, let's talk a little bit about preseason over reactions now. It doesn't necessarily mean it's overreaction, but I have one. I'm going to ask you first though to go give you the shot of stealing mine or you're probably not because I might be wrong, but yet let me. Come on and get happy with happy gop.com. And just $99 a month. Happy GLP gives you one set prices every month. No tears, no tricks. Getting started with happy gop.com is fast, convenient,

15:36and happens virtually with a licensed provider. Check it out for yourself at happygop.com. That's happygop.com. A happy price for a happier you. Com count and medications are not FDA approved. Electrability required to determine why a licensed provider, individual results may vary. See website for details. Have you heard that McDonald's spicy chicken McNuggets made with spicy tempura and a blend of aged cayenne are back? Remember to grab a few extra napkins. Ba-da-ba-ba-ba for limited time at the Spending McDonald's. Tell me something that you think is just kind of brought up from the last few weeks of football that you're not necessarily agreeing with. Overreaction. You know, see, I mean, if it's something I'm not agreeing with, I was going to say the lineup because it learned us a team, I think. You liked, I kind of got, I bought into it. And I'm kind of off of them. So I may be agree with that. You go first and I'll play off of you. But I'm not sure I have one I don't agree with.

16:36You cleared, you led the witness. I don't think. I don't know. Here's the, I don't, not sure, but I don't think reacting the way the market is is proper. This is preseason, frickin' football. I've seen people go zero in four, zero in three, and win Super Bulls. You know, I mean, I'm not saying Atlanta might not be bad. But this reaction and this line here, just from frickin' preseason football, it doesn't make a ton of sense to me because this is preseason. I, people are gonna learn their frickin' lesson. They're not. This is the same shit I've seen every year. Now, maybe Atlanta is bad. But I mean, the reaction from what the line was before, passing the three, going to three and a half, I don't, I don't, up to five and a half. It is not a Jesus Christ. All right, I'm gonna have to bet and lie down for a frickin' spite now. You're on an Allen Iverson practice. We're talking about practice, man. We're talking about preseason. You're on your Iverson rant. I wrote, and I do this column for Fox Sports,

17:38where I give out a pick for every game, one, I won one so far, so at least I got that going for me. Okay. I wrote up it. I wrote up it, Lanna, under 19 and a half team total. But I thought two was playing, you know what? Cooper Rush looks like he's gonna be playing. I actually think that's a break. Just get the ball to your hand. Don't be a complete statue, Tua. I mean, for all, and I don't know if you know any Dolphins fans, I know a few and that's a passionate fan base. They swore he was gonna be great. They swore he was better than Tua. I don't know that he's better than Cooper Rush. I actually, you know what, life on the line, I think I'd prefer Cooper Rush at this point. So that might be an overreaction here. I'm with you. And I'd still bet Atlanta under team total, but I'm not sure that, I'm not sure that's a downgrade here going from two in a rush. Yeah, what's funny is my dumbass didn't even know that. So there you go. I was still thinking too. I was like, but still, he got hurt and practiced. I think that I'm seeing the replays now as you're talking. I'd be like, what the hell that I'm isn't. That's the thing about it. It's like you either locked into staring at your phone

18:40on Twitter or maybe you live a life and have to take your kids to the base. Well, that's just what happened to me this afternoon. I just got home, watched the game, didn't check Twitter. That's how it is. But you know what, Cooper Rush, you could be right. I mean, this hit six, you know, maybe a play on this. This could be a 17 to 13 game, 17 to 14. He's not awful. He's okay. I mean, he's one of the better. He's represented. I mean, he's not, I mean, not one to super well with him, but he's, he's not terrible. For a library. Yeah, he's not pathetic. So I'll, I'll watch this line and see where it goes. But you know, it's funny that this is going to be a big circuit play now for millions. So everyone's going to be jumping in on good old, good old Steelers. Stay the hell away from it. That's what I'm doing. Well, let's talk some NFL week one here. And I already know what you're going to say about Saints Lions, Lions minus seven total, 49 and a half. I'll give you a prop here, because I don't really have a field of side of the total. I'm not laying a touchdown in this league. I just, man, it's just so, there's just so much randomness

19:42here, especially with these teams not playing. I actually think it's a little, it's maybe a little light, but I'm not high on Detroit. I think they've got issues off into line. I think they got us. She's the secondary. And maybe their window is closed, but I think the Saints are little, I don't know, get a little too much love. Jameson Williams, over 56 and a half receiving yards. He's been a guy in the fantasy community. People have been waiting for him to break out. First round pick, big time player in college. A lot of talent, just some issues, kind of a head case. If you look at the last six games of his season last year, Kev, from Thanksgiving on, these are his receiving totals. 144, 134, 90, 76, 70. And then he had a stinker against Minnesota when golf turned the ball over 1,000 times. 57 and a half, 56 and a half. I think it's a little low. I don't think it's accounting for his emergence here. And I think he kind of picks up where he left off, especially playing indoors against the Saints. 56 and a half, a little too low. I like the over, probably lean towards the over in the game. Again, I'm not laying seven in this, so I passed the side.

20:44I know, I totally get why you're not laying seven. At least it's not a division game, but I totally understand that. I mean, from a power rating side, I'm at nine and a half. I mean, I still have the lines. Big sense. Lions is maybe the best team in the NFC North. Nice teaser leg on Detroit. You figured they probably wouldn't the game, but who the hell knows? And that's what I'm doing. I'm teasing them. So that is part of my teaser, definitely the Lions. I think they win the game. We'll see what kind of backdoors happen in this game. But I am all on Detroit from a teaser leg perspective. And my power rating really, really, really agrees with it. Let's move on to the next game then. I mean, that was easy. Bears Panthers, Panthers plus three, total 46 and a half. Dude, I'm a bear fan, but this is creeping the three and a half now. I'm not touching this freaking game. I can see Carolina playing like they did against the ramp. You know what you're going to get with this Carolina team? They're either really bad or really good. And being a dog in the first game at home and all this expectation on the bears, this scares me.

21:47A battle of division winners from last year, believe it or not, as crazy as that is, it's sound. My pick here and I had to give a pick for every game. Kelle Williams over 231 and half passing yards. Ben Johnson talking to a big game. Hey, we're going to score all these points. We're going to be the best offense ever. All this Carolina was in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed. 23rd in the league. You know what? Good weather, shaky past defense. Kelle Williams should have a good passing. You know what? If you get behind, you can throw it. They're going to throw the ball anyway. That's my play. I would only look towards Carolina. I'm not laying three on the road. Bears, there's all sorts of regression coming in terms of their close wins and turnovers. But you know, you probably say the same about Carolina. So I'd only look towards taking the points, but not not exactly cutting in line to bet it. No, I'm not touching this game. This wouldn't shock me if it going way over, way under. We learn a little bit about what Kelle is going to be all about instead of Mr. Comeback kid last year. They are losing some pretty bad teams throughout the first recorders and some of those games

22:48last year. Let's move on to the next game. We have the Browns at Jaguars. The Browns are minus 8.5 total, 39.5. What's funny is this was supposed to be like the second biggest favorite, but it was kind of creeping towards the biggest favorite as money came in on our Cardinals. When about two weeks ago as I'm your show will, it gave out Cardinals 10.5. That thing's good. Yeah, a little bit. Give me the Browns. I actually don't mind their two through 53. It seems like they hit on these rookie receivers and you know well from college. AJ Concepcion from A&M and Denzel Boston from Washington. Two explosive guys. You don't think of the Browns with offense, but maybe it's a car with no stealing wheel. Judkins at running back, the two rookie receivers fanning at tight end. They've always got some players on defense. I'm not sure about the Jags offensive line. The Jags last year on defense gave 31 force turnovers. You're basically getting two takeaways a game. That's not sustainable. Week one, weir stuff happens. 49.5 is a low total. Eight and a half is a whole lot of points for whatever it's worth.

23:51And maybe it's nothing to Sean Watson. Seven and one is career against the Jaguars. Is this one of those weird ones where you look up and wow, Cleveland's up 14 to three on Jackson. What the hell is going on there? Maybe this is an upset. I'll take the eight and a half. Of course, this could go woefully wrong. Maybe Watson's just a shot fighter, but I'll take the eight and a half for the Cleveland roster. I don't think it's terrible. I love our confidence in the NFL. It's talking about the stuff like this is a freaking NFL. It used to be a beatable game. It's a lot different these days, but hey, we love it. Let's move on to Ravens Colts, Colts plus three and a half total. 47 and a half. I'm taking the Colts. You know, I've discussed this before and shows the last month and a half two months. You know, Ravens, just new coach coming in on the road and you always fade new coaches week one. And when there's not a new coach, the number, this is a good trend. It's when I actually didn't bring up, bring up yet, but the new coach trend is big. How the other team definitely covers. I don't have the exact numbers. I'll look it up, but plus three and a half is what I got.

24:52Who the hell are the Ravens to be laying three, three and a half on the road? I mean, all these years, the Ravens continue to get all this respect from the market for a team. They're lined at 11 and a half wins. They missed the playoffs last year and people forget Indy was eight and two and just steam rolling people scored a million points. I'm sure there's a lot of certainty. You can see that for all these games in week one and maybe Jones is in 100% a quarterback. I'll take the home dog here, getting the points. I think it's a little too much respect for Baltimore. Yeah, I agree with you. We're on the same page. Buffalo Texans, Texans plus one and a half, total 44 and a half. This is really close to a pick. It's funny. It's been kind of back and forth a little bit. I agree with the line. You know, the bills have had troubles against Texans we got. Yeah. Texans are great teaser leg out and in his career, one and four against the Texans. Not ferocious pass deep pass rush gives down a hard time. James Cook over receiving yards, the bills running back because what's the best way to protect her quarterback, especially week one? Let's not get our guy killed here.

25:53The pass rush gives him a hard time. Let's get the ball out of his hands. Screen passes, swing passes, flares, just little dump offs. He's been bet up. I gave it out at 13 and a half in my column. He's up to 16, 17 and a half. Obviously shop around and get the best number. I could see this one. Maybe just play over receptions. I could see Cook being a little safety valve of, hey, Owens struggles with his pass rush. This is a ferocious pass rush. Let's get the ball out of his hands quickly and let's kind of slow this pass rush down by getting Cook the ball on his hands as a receiver. So Cook over receiving yards. Again, the line probably looks right. Texans good as a teaser leg. I probably look towards lean towards Texans to the side. I like the Brady higher. I thought the McDermott era had gotten stale and just, you know what, at some point you lose every year in the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion. Eventually it's time to put new sheets on the bed and I get that move when lean towards Texans not enough to bet it, but Cook over receiving yards. Texans and teaser leg. Geez, well as you forget my number, that's a great play, man. I would love to be on that 13 and a half with you now at 16 and a half.

26:56Read the column, bro. Read the column. Come on, what are you doing? I read a lot of columns by friend. I didn't know you had it out. So you let me know. You're not the first person, Fesik yelled at me too because I told them about it when it's, you know, it was late and he's like, you got to tell me about the sooner. So you're not the first person to scold me. All right, all right. Well, we give it back and forth to each other. Bucks, bangles, bangles, my three and a half, total 50 and a half. What about the Joe Burrow comeback special here? I know he came back a little bit last year when it was too late, but you got this Bucks team that finally paid Baker. They paid Vita Vea. Yeah. What do you think? Under 50 and a half. We've been watching all these games. These teams are rusty. There's no Christmas on offense. You're going to get to 51 and a league where these teams just don't play in the preseason. 51's a big total to get to. And I think since he could be improved, finally, it's like Dallas. Can you be at least average on defense? 50 and a half is a pretty high total here. I'll go under. I agree with the under. What the only pause I would say is I remember how bad that secondary was for the Bucks.

28:00Didn't they play each other last year? I thought there was like, yes, it did it go way over. It was one of those. I think so. Tampa had a weird season because Tampa was really good. Baker was an MVP candidate. And they stunk the second half of the year. I mean, he was probably banged up. And that's probably not a coincidence with his style of playing. He's always running around in these little and he's like, you know, it's like the little of sky at the bar trying to fight everyone with his style of play. And of course you're going to get hurt. I mean, you're running into people. You're, you know, he almost plays like Tim Teemo now with all the running and stuff. Under 15 and a half, I think is the best way to play this. Yeah, there's no, I'm not taking any overs this week, put it that way and laying chalk like you said, usually a losing proposition, you know, in that situation. But I guess I'm remembering wrong because I don't see them play any games against Cincinnati. Could have been that two years ago. I think two years ago they had a really like weird high scoring good game. Maybe it was two years ago. These these years we get older kids start to run together. So maybe it was definitely, if it wasn't last year, it was definitely. I want to say middle of the year in 2024, which it might have been.

29:02Yeah, I might have been back then off the reluc. Let's move on the next game. By the way, I will, I'm going to lean the bucks. I'll lean the dog here, why not? Because remember, Cincinnati has busted so many survivors and lost so many times as a favorite. It's a Zactaylor special. Now I will say he at least started players in the preseason more than other people. So maybe he's going to be ahead of the game for that. So I tread lightly with that one. Well, here it is. Your folk and Steelers, I mean, where I talked about a Cooper rush. I mean, I'm not, I think this number gets even bigger. Will I think this probably keeps going? Yeah, I mean, I'm not laying it with Pittsburgh Falcons team total under seems like a bet. And I'm at the point now or if it gets any higher, you just feel obligated to probably take Atlanta, would be a lean towards Atlanta team total under. And maybe this is a good under too, because Roger's probably gets the ball out of his hand quickly, you know, keeps the clock moving same thing with Cooper rush or two. And I think it does sound like it's going to be rushed. So we lean under Falcons team total under all seem like pretty good bets.

30:04But again, nothing I'm dying to bet here. Yeah, 100%. Let's move on to a much better game. The Jets versus the Titans. Tates, my smile and a half total 38 and a half. What a huge total. Jets have better players than them. Jets, I wanted to bet the Jets, but it was three, not that long ago. I didn't bet it. And you know how that goes. You're a point and half two points late to the number. I mean, yeah, you could still bet it, but that's not a great recipe for betting the NFL betting any of this stuff. We look at the Wednesday night game where it lands right on the number. Jets are just Jets have it's similar to the Browns. Give there's actually some players there. And now Aaron Glenn is a coach. We'll see they have to at some point get an interception. That's what that's my bet here. Camward over a half an interception. Mine is one on two. They're due the old gamblers foul. See, they went all 17 games without a pick. You figure there's probably a renewed, you know, emphasis on being more aggressive defensively ball-hawking things like that. And at some point, you know what?

31:05The ball's just going to get tipped and falling your lap. So I'm going to play this until it loses. I know it's not usually a great strategy. I think the Jets win. I think Camward throws a pick. Yeah, I I'll say this whoever turns the ball over with the least wins. I don't know what to do. I don't know what to do this game. I I can make arguments. So I do like the coaches more in Tennessee by a lot. I like solos. Good teaser leg on the Jets too. I mean, loads. Totally get a seven and a half. It's figure should be a 20 to 17 game somebody. They brought in Tony Debal for the offense for the Titans and, you know, Salas probably. And a little bit of a revenge mode against the Jets, maybe I don't know. And you know, that's kind of an interesting angle. There's actually a really good college angle this week. Temples quarterback was just N Penn State last year. Yeah, I saw that. Yeah, so I'm kind of I retweeted that one. But I already bet it. So I don't care. Let's move out of the Cardinals. Chargers, charges plus minus nine and a half. It's got to get back. It's kind of coming back a little bit. It was I saw it down to eight and a half in some books. The total is 47 and a half.

32:05We can shop that around here a little bit. We can check what our friends over at Fandall have on this one as well. So why don't you cap it and I'll pull it up. I'm not going to take a bad number now with Arizona. You and I both got ahead of this. It's some better numbers. I think Arizona plenty of backdoor potential. A lot of weapons on offense. If anything, I'd actually play an over here. This feels like it could be you know, a 30 to 20, 31, 21 type of game. So I don't want to be on the wrong side of a key number where this could easily land on 10. But I think we get some points here. I would lean Arizona will lean over, but you don't want to be on the wrong side here. A bad number and I don't want to be on any overs. So but I do lean over to this Cardinals defense. It could be terrible. But I'll take the dog is very backdoorable with the Cardinals. Concarnels as a dog will be what I'm choosing. It looks like the juice is just different. The plus nine and a half is the minus one 15 had fan dual. So if you do like the charge aside, a little bit better for you over that situation. Cowboys versus giants.

33:07You know what's nice to and a half again. Cowboys might soon have the Malik neighbors news kind of helped the giants out a little bit. He's looks like he's pretty healthy. He's playing not that they have anybody else to throw the ball to. But you know, they have scataboo who loves to hit the line and told us about 48 and a half. You know, it's I think I know what I'm going to do in this game, but I haven't done anything yet. Will I like the Cowboys, Daccon his career against the Giants 14 and three. One of those losses was week 18 last year. We threw 10 passes. Got them out of the game because it didn't matter. I feel like we've seen this game for the last decade pretty much. You know, every other year on Sunday night, the Cowboys and this is a, maybe a lazy or overly simplistic candy cap. The Cowboys kept just have better players than the Giants. They just had better weapons. Neighbors will see what version of we get him of him. What we get coming off the injury outside of that. Who do they have that really scares you? Dallas has weapon after weapon. I think the defense is going to be much improved. It'd be hard to be worse.

34:08I think Dallas wins the game. I'm OK laying the points here on the road. And that's not a great home field, especially Giants. It's an older crowd. You know, prime time game Sunday night. I don't think that's like some building you can't go on and win. I think Dallas is just a better team here and anything under a fuel. Well, I think is as perfectly fine to like good teaser leg here too, especially, you know, back to two and a half. I you can take a three and tease it though. But you know, obviously if you're a kid and nine, you lose anyway. I'm probably going to be in the Giants. Well, this is one of those. Yeah. Yeah. You know, we haven't agreed, disagreed yet and I actually jumped ahead here. So I apologize. This is the Sunday night game. But division dogs is what you're looking for. And I'll tell you right now I was with my son at the Cardinals game against the Panthers last year. And the Cardinals were kicking their ass. Now they did let the Panthers back in way lay the fourth quarter. But what ruined the game for me is that this was week two again. And I had the Cowboys in my survivor against the Giants. Russell Wilson was throwing touchdowns in this game kept being tied the whole

35:09freaking time and it goes that overtime. You think in both sides going to lead. That should have ended in a tie. I should have been a survivor. Russell Wilson made the stupidest mistake with like a minute left. It's like you could have just ran the ball, tried to kick a long field goal. Maybe get there throws a pick. Freaking, I forgot the name of the kicker on the Cowboys. Aubrey Aubrey freaking hits like a 60 freaking yard or something, something massive. And I and I pushed my survivor. But it just totally ruined my at the game experience being on strike. Cause I went out last year with the Ravens and I'm talking to the big survivor. Of course, but you know, you're not supposed to let your emotions get involved. What can you freaking do? I mean, this was a big spread. Cowboys couldn't cover it at home last year. I think the Giants have the better coach this year. I'm going to be on the Giants, but I'm not bending. Now I'm going to wait until Sunday night creeps along. Everybody on them boys will see how that goes. Now if you got a two and a half, well, I applaud you because that's, you know, there was plenty of that in the marketplace. So that's what I would definitely be on that side.

36:11If that was the case, teaser leg. If not, because you have the Broncos chiefs the next day. Let's go back to the commanders versus the Eagles. This thing's up to six now. Yeah. The total is 44 and a half, but it is another division situation. I I don't like either. I think the Eagles can win are happy with winning by three with their slow play. I what do you think? Commanders team total under the thing is 19 and a half. That offensive line. I don't think we'll travel out. I don't think it'll do well against the Phillies. The Philly front four and their defensive line. Philly, you know, they like to take the air out of the ball and just grind the clock and have these long drives, which hurts Washington's ability to go over their team total Washington team total under the place for me. I don't disagree with that at all. Washington team total under it makes total sense. I hate Dan Quinn. I think they screwed up their offense coordinator by getting rid of Kingsbury. I don't like blow.

37:11I do like Jaden Daniels, but this is a completely different team now. It's just it's just a lot of weirdness and the Eagles are going to want to put a stamp on this one. I did take a bad number a long time ago with this one, but I'm just going to let it play out. Packers, Vikings, Vikings minus one and a half total 46 and a half. I'm just going to let you know this is my other teaser lag. I'm teasing the Packers up to actually seven and a half. I got about to seven and a half. Yeah, certainly understand taking the teaser like should be a close game. I like Minnesota. Green Bay has all sorts of offensive line issues and that's not the place you want to go against Brian floor isn't that defense that's going to be coming off the bus. When you got offensive line issues, the Vikings went 98 last year with basically you and me playing quarterback Max Prozmer and when McCarthy who can't even win the backup job. Now what a bus that pick was what a disaster. They still went 98 Murray. I mean, you know, well, being in Arizona. Is he perfect knows he ma homes round. Of course not. He's had some moments though and this is by far by far the best situation he's

38:12been in coach, talent around him and you throw in the matchup of Flores versus a banged up offensive line. I think Minnesota wins the game, but I don't disagree with your teaser. I wish this game would just keep being postponed because it's just that much longer that the bears took the packers out of the play offs. My friend and you have just a wonder how much that's been on their heads for the whole year, man, the rival, the bears, the ones that they've been just beating the crap out of horrendous loss to missing kicks left and right. Blue big. I had green Bay that that game. Oh my God. What a horrible loss that was. It was wonderful. I was in Port of Ayarta. It was wonderful. Dolphins. I live at the Bears too. Definitely not nothing premium on that one, but he put us in Mexico. Dolphins versus the Raiders. Now the Raiders without Brock Bauer's Raiders. People talking like they want to play the Raiders in Survivor and it makes me laugh

39:16because I'm like, dude, you know, there's 10 teams you don't have to play in Survivor and the circle one. This is it. Now if you're talking double week survivor, okay, fine. I get it. But in the circle, you're by playing the Raiders. Good luck, dude. Yeah. I mean, I get it. I just people are trying to be, you know, get clever and try to get rid of teams. You don't want going forward and build a better path, better equity, things like that. I have no idea. I actually, my play here, Malik Willis over 38 and a half rushing yards. You look at his two starts last year 50, 60. There's not a lot of weapons there. You figure Willis can probably run for 40 plus yards here. So I'll go with us over rushing yards, have no interest otherwise. Want to become a better, better one again on a path to handicaping professionally. Start by tracking every pick with full transparency using the odds, breakers, partnered with Tally site. These platforms verify your record grade every play and showcase long term performance.

40:20So you can build real credibility, not just screenshots and hindsight claims. If you're serious about leveling up, proving your edge and establishing yourself as a professional handicap or this is where your reputation begins. Just go to the ozbreakers.com and click on live, I'd slash pick tracking to get started. Join us in your handicapping journey. That's not a bad play at all. I like that one. I'm writing that one down. Malik Willis over his rushing yards. Yeah, that's that he doesn't throw much. He's going to be running for his life the whole time. He'll get through some holes. Yeah, I like I was at 38 and a half. He said, yeah, 38 and a half was when I wrote it up shop around. He get a yard or two here or there, but right around that ballpark, 38 and a half is golden. So I love that could call Broncos chiefs. Two and a half, three ish. You know, I mean, let's see what Fandals got. It's probably two and a half.

41:21And yeah, it's two and a half. If you really shop that thing, you can get a three. I took three a long time ago. Will it's just, you know, one of those it's a division. I think the Broncos are better than the chiefs from a team perspective. I may be the quarterbacks better with the chiefs, but you know, I mean, I'll take a dog in this rivalry. Yeah, 43 and a half. I looked at the under these games have typically been pretty low scoring. It's adjusted because my home's rushing prop is usually in the 30s and him coming back off the injury. It's like 16 and a half. I'll still go under. I just don't think first game back. You know, they really now maybe the instincts take over and all it takes is one long scramble and he gets this. I'll take my chances. My home's I just think maybe a little gun shy. I forget hurt last year coming off the injury. First game of the season. Maybe it's just a little cautious. I'm sure there won't be very many. If any design runs, I'll go my homes under rushing yards. Lean under lean chiefs. You know what?

42:22It's still my homes. My home's getting under a field. Well, you know what? You you you can be getting a lot of trips to Port of Iarza. If you bet my home's under a field going home throughout career. My home's under a field going anywhere. That's usually a pretty good bet. And you could make the case. There's some Broncos regression coming with a lot of their stuff from last year, but not not strong enough for me to bet it. Why does he get to heal as a ACL so quick? You know, you know, Adrian Peterson was the only like other when I really think of that somehow came back. Maybe it's those peptides that everyone's taking these days. I don't know. You know, it's like I think these 1% of 1% of 1% athletes. Not only are they're better than everyone else like during the games. I think the heel faster than everyone else. Still their DNA and sell it. There you go. Black marker. I mean, LeBron James played all these years. LeBron never gets hurt. I mean, these elite athletes, I think there's something to that where, I mean, how many times have you seen like, you know, Yannis gets hurt and he pops right back up along, I guess he's missed time. Maybe that's a bad example, but I mean, you get the idea. No, I get the idea. We've seen it Brady and, you know, they might have one bad injury,

43:25but you think that'll be a repeat. No, they just kind of kept coming and coming and coming. Great stuff, man. I love those plays. You know, what's your favorite teaser leg? I should ask you probably. What are you going to do for a teaser? You mentioned a few. Shit. We'll go Jets Packers. Okay, Jets Packers. That's great. And you mentioned quite a few of them. Giants is good there. You know, there's a lot of home ones that are good. I like the Lions teaser leg a ton. You can even, you know, think about Jacksonville too. I don't know of as much as eight and a half, but, you know, now teams are, you know, down, down 11, they'll go for two sometimes. Down 14, they'll definitely go for two, which is the right call. But, you know, you're seeing a little bit more of that. So that worries me a little bit more than eight and a half and a half just want to throw that out there. Definitely not teasing the dolphins. I'll tell you that because like I said, that Raiders dolphins, I don't know. It wouldn't shock me if one team won by three. Look at what the Niners just did at the Rams. I mean, come on. This NFL week one is up in the air.

44:28Beer bet bangers, what do you think you have for a beer bet banger? Any long shots that you like, it doesn't have to be this week, any bet that you like. Maybe my home isn't the same coming off the ACL. It's possible. And the rest of the team around them will say, he's 17 to one for MVP at Fandall. My home should never be 17 to one for MVP. The enemy's back. They scored a million points when the enemy was the OCs and upgrade over Naggy. I get you can have questions about the offensive line and who's starting to tack on all that, all that stuff's fair. You know what, if my home wins MVP at 17 to one and I don't bet it, I'll hate myself. I don't want to hate myself ending more than usual. That will be my beer banger. This is perfect for mine because I have the comeback player of the year, Danny Jones for my beer bet banger 21. So go ahead, my home's take that one and then comeback player comes to Danny Dimes. And my home is this he really qualified for comeback on the word he missed the last two or three weeks. He's that I was like, come back player. That's the one where there's the most he's favored.

45:30No, I know I get it, but the spirit of the award, I don't know, that's the one where there's the most room for interpretation. We've all heard plenty of debates over the years of Hamlin and Flacco and there's plenty of these. What constitutes a comeback? What are you coming back from? And I think the only people I really care about that is the ones that like us are betting on it. I mean, my home's got hurt and what December he missed the last two or three games now. We all expect my home to come back. My home's gonna be fine. Is this really a comeback? I don't know. Shame on you, just us care about it. Yeah. That's true though. It's just us that cares about it. And then we get mad at voters and people are like, what the hell is your problem? And that makes sense. I mean, we've been on some good ones. We've been on some bad ones over the years. Flacco, baby. Flacco. You're those great. You also had Dave all close to the year. You got that one on me and I'll remember that one for a while, but I'll tell you that was a good one because you played into everything that happened and it was proper. It was proper. What's funny is like when you get three guys, you can't really argue. You can say make a case for any of them

46:32and can't argue against it. It's like that he deserved it. And this is the way it is with some of these, right? It's like, yeah. And you have to like not even almost worry about who should get it. It's just reading the room of, all right, who are they gonna vote for? What, you try to get inside the head of other people's, brains and how they work, which it's not easy, but I heard people say, you know what, I don't bet these awards because I can't bet on somebody else's opinion while, because there's too much variance. That variance leaves you open for some big numbers, nowhere you can really cash in. Well, you're the best. Where could our listeners get your wonderful information? Yeah, Foxports.com. Veecin should have been more podcast in bet US on Fridays. New, new, new, new, Eastern I'll be doing a show, talk about the NFL. So catch up there. All right, go to little bet US, little action, more action from Will. He's a busy man. Make sure you file Will at not the will. Thanks again for coming on Will, best luck this weekend. Appreciate it. Now it is time for...

47:34The short start of the phase. So the first is brought to you by Fandall Sports. Fandall, the best odds in the business. If you wanna get on those falcons, you got some pretty good numbers here. Getting up to plus six over here on Fandall and Atlanta. Right now is at plus 190 from the money line perspective. Make sure you check out Fandall Sports. All right, we're gonna do some sharp NFL here. Just some of the most prominent one. I got five sides and one total jaguars, minus seven and a half. To minus eight and a half hosting the rounds, 57% of the tickets and 77% of the money. Steelers, my assume half to minus four and a half hosting the falcons, 54% of the tickets, 71% of the money. Bears, my assume half to minus three, almost three and a half at the panthers, 69% of the tickets, 82% of the money, I don't wanna worry about you, please. Colts, four and a half to three and a half, hosting the Ravens, you got 35% of the tickets, and then 53% of the money on that one. What else we got here? Lost my page, Vikings, plus two to minus one and a half,

48:37hosting the packers, 58% of the tickets, 72% of the money. Sharp totals, I mean, the only one I really have is commanders versus Eagles under 47 and a half to 44 and a half, 82% of the tickets, 82% of the money, maybe some buyback now, but not too much prominence on the totals here. I find that interesting, maybe all the bets are, obviously, 80% of the bets are coming in on Saturday and Sunday, my friends. I'm gonna recap for you what we are taking, we are taking the Colts plus the three and a half. We have the Carnals plus nine and a half, and we've been giving away bets this whole year, but the Broncos, we gave it away multiple times, plus three, I don't care, buy it up to three if you have to, but those are the three plays I like. And now, it's time for our refuse to lose teaser, and I already gave it away, the Lions all the way down to minus one with the packers all the way up to seven and a half. And I actually had to do a six and a half point teaser

49:38because the books were being a little stingy on teaser protection where I got it, but either way, try not to pay anything more than minus one 30. I got minus one 20 myself. That is our refuse to lose teaser for the week. Thank you so much for listening to this podcast. I hope you guys crushed it this week. If you still have time, getting these wonderful contests, you know we have contests over at Splash Sports as well. So you can always get in to our Splash Sports contest and get in the circa the best contest in the world. Be safe this weekend and go get some winners.