2026 US Open Final Preview & Predictions: Ben Shelton vs. Alexander Zverev Odds, Bets, Props

0:00You're listening to Betting Weekly Game Bet Match on the Bet Rivers Network. Hello, everybody. Welcome on in. It's Betting Weekly Game Bet Match. It's the US Open Final preview that men's singles final tomorrow, 2pm Eastern time. It's the match between Alexander Zveref and Ben Shelton. Backhand Ben Shelton and a long, long wait for an American major winner on the men's side. We're going to look at that match, break it down in some detail with our ATP Tour handicap. Sean Kavak, we're going to go introduce the shoe on in a minute. But as I say at the top of every single show, please hit the subscribe button, hit the like, leave some comments here, let you know your thoughts. A lot of Americans are in the chat. Will you be betting Ben Shelton? Will you think Zveref could win his second major of the year? Is anyone had an easier route or major than Ben, than Alexander Zveref this year in two majors? Will it happen again here? I put all those comments into the section below. I've been most importantly ring that bell, subscribe to the channel.

1:00Lows of you subscribed over the last two weeks here for the US Open content. Big numbers as well. So thank you very much for that. But spend more of you having it. Subscribe button. Hit the subscribe button. Lots of stuff coming your way, including this preview of the men's singles final. Good morning. Sean, how are you? Good morning. I'm alright. Thank you. Yeah. Not too bad. It didn't go as planned as we did on the semi-finals show. We weren't for both of our starters, but it's gone to the final part. You know, it was how we planned it in terms of the start of the starter tour. But the general's a little bit too short in price. Yeah, he was. What is he? 10 to 1? Something like that. He's too short again in the final, to be honest. I say I'm alright. I'm obviously gutted about Koshan off yesterday. Absolutely ridiculous at three near losses. I'm actually he actually won. I was just saying to produce John a second ago that he would if you'd have said to me at the start of the tour, you got an 800 to one shot. He's in the semis and he wins the semi 101 to 99 in the service points. One of return points. One tells I'd have been very happy turns out he didn't win a set.

2:05Should have won set two should have won set three ended up losing both of them and Zerave's got through to the final in another easy draw. As you said, but yeah, not too happy about that. But yeah, it's it's it's it's a great chance for Shelton. Isn't it for Americans to finally get a winner first one since Roddy Cup, I leave 20 years ago, whatever it was. Just quickly talk about the conditions actually before I go into this because there is a bit of rain around. It's another one of those rainy New York days that we've had quite a few of this tournament. But it looks like it's going to stop just about before the final starts. So should be okay. Weather wise. As far as this match is concerned, I mean, it just comes down to how much the Shelton improvement this season can negate the the awful head to head that he's got against Zerave. And is lack of experience, you know, in major finals. I'm not I'm not seeing any value in plus one 25 here. I didn't see any value in him at 10 to one or whatever he was at the start of the tournament given that draw that he's had,

3:05which was ridiculous. No Greeks ball, her cast, Shapa Valoff, 60 pass, Al Carraz Tafo. And he's 10 to one. I mean, I've got to take it 33 to one. You've got to take it even bigger prices than that. Certainly not saying he can't win this fight. I'm just saying that plus one 25. Not for me. If you just quickly break down the head to head five and oh to Zerave on all surfaces that played on clay hard grass and indoor, they played on all surfaces and it's 114 to 86 in favor of Zerave. That's a pretty dominant head to head unlike the Koshan off one, which I think was 104 to 96. You know, it's massively in favor of Alexander Zerave dominant in every area. The main points to mention of the Shelton is only 122.5% of return points against Zerave. Zerave's held serve incredibly in five matches 98% of the time against Shelton. Zerave is over in 60% on second serve versus 42% for Shelton.

4:05Zerave is over in 37% of return points against the guy that serves unbelievable. So a very dominant career series for Zerave. And we'll see, won't we, if the return of serve improvements that Shelton has made over the course of this year, can cause a dent at least in Zerave, in Zerave's circle because he's done nothing on it in the past. I feel like the second serve points one should be closer this time. Shelton is a lot better from the back of the court. He defends better, particularly on the back-hand side than he did in the past. I don't feel like he's an improved, you could say Shelton 2.0. That's where a lot of people will be hanging their hat here on the improvements that he has shown this season. But the other matchup factor is it's very, also as a, it's not just against Shelton. He's got an unbelievable record against left-handers. I've mentioned it before in the show, he's now won 44 of his last 45 matches against left-handers. Which is incredible. The only loss was to learn a TN in Acapulco 2025.

5:07If we just say in majors only, he's won 17 of his last 18 completed matches against lefties. The only loss coming back in 2022 to Shapa Valov at the Australian Open four years ago. If we just break down his numbers, the data that he has against left-handers, last 50 matches he's played against lefties, 94% win rate, service points 1 and return points 1 and total of 111, winning 40% of return points. If we look at his numbers against all players, that includes lefties and righties, that falls to 82% win rate. The total is 109, 2 points less, and winning 38% of return points. He's arguably better against left-handers. Then he is against righties. You could certainly counter that by saying the very best players in the world are right-handers. That's true since obviously Nadal retired. The downside for Shelton is the match-up. It's been a poor one.

6:08Very poor one. That on its own puts me off plus 125. There's no way he should be plus 125 on the career series. On the plus side is in the form of his life. That's fair. And his hard-court stats for this season and his stats, this US opener, are comparable to his very ever. If we look at 2026 main level and outdoor hard, it's very ever 92% win rate, total of 108.5. Shelton 91% win rate, total of 107.4. On that you would make it reasonably close. Shelton winning 37% of return points this season, which highlights the improvements that he has made in that department. Because last season he won only 35% of return points on outdoor hard. So he certainly improves. It's not a seismic improvement, but it's a definite improvement. If we just look at this US open as a standalone. This very ever total is 109. Shelton's 107. He doesn't really argue and justifiably so that Shelton is that much tougher draw.

7:11The players that I've mentioned and Surrey has had what, Hallease, Sanago, Tabilo, Dardary and Exhaust, Invandes, Anskoop and Kishanov that he should never have beaten in straight sets. Another factor is that the matches played against the current top 10. Shelton only winning 28% of return points in his last 10 matches against the current top 10. And of course he faced an Alkarazir that wasn't fully fit and wasn't able to serve like he has in the past. But from a mental standpoint that's a massive boost for Shelton. The other positive for Shelton is he's playing his best tennis. I'm not totally sure that Zverev is. How did he win that semi-3 in Ilygets Kishanov? Well he won it by winning the big points better because he lost the match 101 to 99. In the service points, one in return, one in Tertles. Kishanov just managed to find a way to lose all three sets. One break point, I think he faced in the first set.

8:13Got broken. Five-three up in the second set. I break five-two up in the third set. I break didn't win any of them. The other factor to throw in here is that we don't know how Shelton's going to react to playing in a major final. First major final at home with a crowd that expects him to put on a show. They're going to fancy their chances of an American winner here. Not too many players win their first slam final in this day and age. Only Sinner and Alchra has done it since chillich back in 2014. He was playing Nishikuri that day. The only players actually that won their made in Grand Slam Final having been priced up as underdog in the last 20 years. Wirtch-elich, he was a tiny underdog against Nishikuri in that 2014 US Open. For Vrinka, big underdog, 2014 Australian. Before that, you've got to go back to Gaston Gaudio, which you'll probably remember in 2004. French Open Final. Prior to that, I don't have.

9:14Korea. Korea. It was Korea, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. It was a ridiculous match. It was about 200 breaks to serve, wasn't it? It was crazy. I don't know if Gaudio didn't do anything after that. That was him done. You know, he's so easy in title to be nervous. You know, his race in his sixth Grand Slam Final and he started very strongly in his two this year. Six-one opening set against Koboli at the French. When people were thinking, you know, is he going to include it myself? You know, is he going to really bottle this again? Didn't come out when the opening set strongly against Koboli who of course himself was nervous. When the opening set against Sinner at Wimbledon this summer. The bet I like here is the plus one 43 on the Zverev minus one and a half games to in set one with bet rivers here. On the basis that all right, Shelton exudes a lot of confidence, but this is this is a different scenario for him. You know, he can be as as brash as he likes, but it's a different thing stepping out in a Grand Slam Final, particularly the US Open on the home soil.

10:20He might take to it like a doctor water. I don't know, but history suggests that he's likely to be nervous. There's very few players that stroll onto a Grand Slam Final, particularly underdogs that come in and sort of start bossing it from the first point. So that's one better like also quite like the over 22 and a half player game. It was very, I've given the struggles that the Shelton has had dealing with this serve. If you fancy it being a long match and that's probably the way to go. Not all the side markets are up yet, but if AC's market's come up, I don't know whether they are yet. They weren't a little while ago. Shelton has out aced Zverev in this matchup. Certainly overall, possibly not on clay, but the rest of the services that he did out ace in my to that will be an interesting market. If that comes up on the bet rivers website pretty soon, as I'm sure it will, while it will certainly come up over the course of the next 18 hours or so. Another option here is Shelton in play. If he does lose set one, which I feel he probably might.

11:26Shelton to win set two, I feel like is a better option. When the nerves are gone, again, I think Koboli did that in the French Final, having struggled in the opening set. He shook himself up and won the second set. Once the nerves have gone, it's a different story. Shelton to win set two is a decent option as well. Plenty of options here. I've got a 33-1 ticket on Shelton. I hope he's going to win. I just don't see any value in him at plus 125. I might even be doing a bit of hedging to be completely honest. Let's have a look at the odds. I mean, that is on Zverev and the money on his minus 150. Shelton has plus 125. The spread of one, the total is high, 42.5. When you look at their head to head record, you said it's 5-0 in favour of Zverev. Four matches all last year. Everyone was a straight set for Zverev as well. I find it quite interesting. One of them was 6-2, 6-2 in Cincinnati. But Shelton still out-served in a 6-2, 6-2 win. Everyone was very heavy in the service stats there.

12:27Those aces have got to be the bet. Depends on the price. It's going to be the angle of attack. That certainly one option. Depends. If he's going to be favourable, that's a different matter. But if he's underdog on the aces, then yes, absolutely. That market hasn't arrived yet. You have to check the bet rivers website over the course of the next 12 hours or so. Have a look. Ultimately, Has Belchett got a chance to say yes. Absolutely. Is he value at plus 125? Not for me. Not on the matchup. I know he's improved over the last season. All those are the factors. First major final. The nerves, playing at home. The terrible matchup. It just doesn't scream value at plus 125. That's for sure. I'm going to take a little interest to start the point on this very minor 1-1-1-1-1-2 in the opening set.

13:31He's got all the experience now. What is his sixth major finals? He has started strongly generally. It's sheltings in title to be nervous. I know he's very confident and sort of a brilliant character. We'll see. I'll be impressed if he comes out here in his first set of his first major and starts bossing it. That would be very impressive indeed. I'm going to take a little bit of minus 1-1-1-1-1-2-1. That's the value here to win the opening set plus 143. But obviously, I'm hoping that... I don't mean to be rude here. What I hope you'll completely roll on this. I hope you're absolutely wrong. I'm looking for my play. I hope I'm wrong. The positive for Shelton. It's going to be daunting for Zverev. Who hasn't... I know he's one of major's here and he got to the final. But history, he made it tough work. Getting it over the line at Fentropon. History is seen in fold in these kind of positions. He's going to play an American.

14:32When they're hungry, they crowd the New York crowd a hungry for success. And it's a very, very emotional weekend in New York. Obviously, of the events of 25 years ago. That's got to be that kind of energy. Now, that could be a positive or that could be a huge negative for Ben Shelton. But for me, I look at Ben Shelton. What a confident guy he is. True. Some would say arrogance. Sort of bored on arrogance and confidence a little bit. I mean, he's not... He's a... Mar might kind of tarot in terms of the fan base. But I'm not quite sure... I'm not quite sure whether that will... Will he smile him? I'm thinking a bit more of the opposite. I'm thinking... And I think that's why the price is the price it is because it's... This is a US Open Final in New York. And if this was played anywhere else in the world, I think that Shelton would probably be about plus 185 through in this match. Yeah, possibly. It's a bit of a home advantage thrown in. But as you say, it could go either way. You would think... Given what we know about Shelton, the kind of character he is, that it would be an advantage. That being said, it can go awfully quiet in Ash.

15:33When things aren't going the right way, if he does lose the opening set, goes a breakdown. There's no energy in that crowd. Yes, they've got great energy at like 2am, 1am, when there's a big fifth set battle going on, and it's in the adrenaline's pumping and all that sort of stuff. But it's very... Well, no, what he's got to do here. He won't want any of that. He's going to come in and think, right, I'm now the Grand Slam Champion. The way that he's folded in the past is relevant. But the fact that I feel like he's... The fact that he is now a Grand Slam Champion doesn't have that pressure anymore. If he'd lost that French final, and then lost that Wimbledon final, that very different scenario. But he will feel probably a bit more relaxed now that he is a Grand Slam Champion. And then he's gone on to make the following two finals as well. He'll know that he can make this a favorable situation for him by coming in, knocking off the first set, keeping the pressure on, keeping that crowd into it.

16:33You know, they'll start sneaking out if it goes a couple of sets down and then it's all going to go a bit south. But for me, yeah, I'm kind of a torn a little bit here. I don't see any value in plus 125. That's for sure. I do like the 33 to 1 that I've got. And you've got the what? 66 to 18 to 1, whatever it was you're there. 66, 66. So, yeah, I think he's got a good chance. I just wouldn't bet him at plus 125. That's... It's going to be an inplay bet. You know, watch the first set. See how it goes. See what's like. You make. See how the crowd react. And I think it's going to be an in-imply betting event this rather than a pretty much betting event. Yes. Why you're on the bet, check out the bet, reverse banter. If you're looking for a betting angle, check out the top picks newsfeed in your bet, reverse app. The bet, reverse banter newsfeed is full with picks from bet, reverse network personalities and more handicappers to give you exploits. So, it's tap the top picks icon in your bet, reverse to get the latest tips. The bet, reverse app there. Tap the top picks icon. Just looking back to history. The last man to win a major obviously win a series on the news all the way through

17:34was an anti-rollic last person to win a major for an American player. And there's three people who look three Americans have tried since at the US Open got to the final and all three of them were beaten twice by Roger Federer and once by Yannick Sinner. So, this is the best opportunity American men's tennis has of winning a major since anti-rollic win it. We are hoping that he's going to win it for our future bets. And I know many people who watch the chat are involved in them as well. And they've got Ben Chelke tickets. But purely from the matt odds of this current time there is probably no value in him at plus one twenty five for all the statistics that Shauna said there. And all the reasoning he gave there very one side of head said, but in play that is where you want to be focused on here. And we'll have you covered on betting weekly tennis live in play. As soon as the match starts we'll be going live with an in play watch along for the first set. The men's final as well as an in play watch along tonight with Mitch and Tim Dennis tomorrow. And I think it's me and Mitch who are on going through all the in play action. We'll be with you for the whole of the first set. So join us for the men's singles final.

18:35A shelter against very for all the in play on betting weekly tennis live. Ben and weekly live is seven days a week now covering all the soccer actions. Premier League today we got the Champions League starting loads of content coming your way there. And also betting weekly live PM. The boys have been smashing out the part of their state side. And they have all the American sports covered for you on the weekend. A big weekend of NFL as the NFL returns. Make sure you subscribe as I said the top of the show. But that's been it for the US open. We're hoping that Ben Shell wins it for both of us. We, you know, we we've documented out our big anti post bets. My I bet mine on the 27th of January when he got to the quarterfiles of the Australian open and got beat by Yannick Sinner. I thought 66 to one was a big price. I'll hope in the cash the ticket. But it's all about value at this moment of time. And the value on this moment of time is on Alexander's very up the price. It's sure I wish you well for the weekend. Take care. Thank you. Thank you for joining us and give us give us sure the final bit of the US open. Yeah, I'm just going to take off a point on this very often in the open set minus one and a half games on the handicap. That is a plus one forty three chance for better rivers.

19:37Yeah, keep you covered hit the subscribe button. Lots you join us and we'll be back on Sunday tomorrow with two WTA 250 events. The dream lives on here on the Ben Wheatley Studios. What a great couple of events we have there. That's it for the US open. Good luck. We bet so many enjoyed the content. Hopefully you stick with us until the conclusion of the Tennessee's and all again next year as well as well as a soccer and the sports across the states. As well. This is the home of sports betting for you. Goodbye for now and see you all again tomorrow here on betting weekly game bit match. Thanks for listening to betting weekly game bet match on the bet rivers network.