AI Safety Timeline Takeover, Bending Spoons Acquires Miro, iPhone Duo Reactions | Diet TBPN

0:00105 days. 105 days till Christmas get ready. Should we do a little bit of a news roundup? We have a white commentator demiday going on today. We got Gary Tan coming on the show 11 25. Then we're going back to back with five different startups that are in this YC batch doing everything from humanoid robots to satellites to AI agents and credit cards. We're going all over the place giving you a tour of what's going on in the startup world, which I personally enjoy because it's a good way to sort of ground yourself in what's happening in the in the early stage. There's so much discussion about what's going on among the big labs and Apple, obviously, in the news yesterday. It can be all encompassing. But the big the big story time to talk to the future talk to the future. No, that's really what it gives you a little bit of insight into what things are going to look like in a decade. Some people don't think we're going to be here in a decade. Never black pill. I saw a good

1:03post this morning. Joe, she boxed. If you think AI will lead to human extinction by 2030, I will take that bet. If we are still alive by December 31, 2030, you pay me one million USD. If not, I will pay you 10 million USD. That's a good good good. Take it. There's a lot of people out there that should take the bad I think. Bye. This is no. I mean, that's the whole joke. No, I know. Yeah, I mean with a lot of these, the arguments break down. A lot of things break down. It's also just so difficult to to put a P doom over time because you have to time bound it because you know, general scientists will say humanity will go extinct eventually. The default number is 10 to the 100 years. That's a Google years from now. It's heat death of the universe, the stars collapse. Yeah. Even in a billion years, we're going to be in trouble because the sun will be larger than the earth will have expanded to become encompassing the earth. So you got to get off earth in the

2:08next billion years. We're working on that with SpaceX. Elon occasionally delayed. I think he's going to make it before the next billion years. The AI thing, obviously much more pressing, all sorts of hacks and agentic capabilities, lots of debate going on, and a wall-to-wall press tour from a lot of the safety community. Daniel from AI2027 was on Joe Rogan. It was an interesting lesson. He makes a lot of good points. He breaks things down for a broader audience and then Rogan will take them in these very funny directions just being like, yeah, these AI agents are crazy. Let's talk about UFOs. It's actually like the meme. Yeah. Like, oh yeah, like, have you heard about remote viewing? And he breaks down remote viewing for him and Daniel has to be like, a little more skeptical of that. But I'm a real believer in ex-risk. And so I think the net effect is going to be more awareness about the topic, more discussion about the topic. It might just wind up muddling it because people now put ex-risk in the aliens, UFOs, remote viewing camp. It's like,

3:10oh, it's like a fun thing that Joe Rogan talks about. It's like, becomes more abstract as opposed to being more concrete, but I don't really know. We'll see. What a day AI2027 predict for September of 2026? He said, this is the stage where AI becomes economically disruptive and starts accelerating AI research itself. We got the second part. The labs are all saying we have an automated AI research intern. Just an intern. Just an intern. Yeah, but that's accelerating, accelerating. And the models seem to be getting better at a faster clip. The economically disruptive is the capability. Jobs. Junior software engineering faces major disruption. People managing and checking AI teams prosper. So junior software engineering major disruption. We'll see. We'll see if that plays out this month. The job market has been pretty strong. We map that there's something like 17,000 monthly AI-related job losses, but that's less than 1% of the 1.7 million jobs that

4:10are lost every month. But then of course, there are more than 1.7 million new jobs and new higher is because people change jobs a lot. So that's often what's going on. Markets and politics. The scenario forecasts a 30% stock market rise during 2026 and a 10,000-person anti-AI protest and growing defense contracts. That seems to be fun. Yeah, it feels notable that we haven't we haven't had a protest. There's been a protest. There was a protest in San Francisco. A safety like a protest. It was not nearly 10,000 people. It was like more like under 100, but dozens. But yeah, I mean, it seems like the Joe Rogan experience, the the national news tour. If you're going to get 10,000 people in the streets, like, this is this is a key step in the chain. Well, Cheryl Crow was over on Instagram highlighting AI risk and someone was saying, Sherry O'Terry, is that the celebrity? It says, take to the streets like they did in Albania, all of us, so we can't be ignored. So there's I guess calls for protest.

5:13Yeah, and there was another there was another risk incident reported by the New York Times today. Anthropics says it blocked possible efforts to build biological weapons in a new report. Yeah, I started out of that it could not determine if the research was legitimate or nefarious, leaving the company shut down the work. So some scientists were using an anthropic model to work on biological research and the Anthropic team flagged it as, hey, this could be in the in the line of bio weapon. We don't know that that's what this person was trying to do, but we're going to shut it down because of course a lot of the research that goes into building a nuclear power plant is the same that goes into a nuclear bomb. And same thing, these are a lot of dual use technologies. Anyway, anything else to say about Jacob Coxen who I think will have much more news? He went on Fox and Anderson Cooper CNN. I'm sure there will be a much deeper dive at some point. It feels like there's going to be a, it is interesting that with the launch of the post and the Wall Street Journal article, there was not a one hour three hour podcast like we didn't get

6:15our situational awareness. Like I want the five hours sit down with somebody. Based on the based on the interviews, it doesn't really feel like he's got an hour of content. Okay, maybe he maybe he does. But it's the best because you can just tell the story of the Terminator for an hour and like take someone on that journey and that can actually be in service of updating people about X-Risk. You can tell the full story of how you think things might play out. There's so many different scenarios that are the bad ending worth avoiding. You can illustrate that. I don't know. Yeah, I thought it was, I think it's coming. We've brought your podcast player in a week. Let's pull up this clip. This is from Fox News last night. I think that industry needs to be regulated as soon as possible. Did you work with any third parties as far as this whistle blowing and coming out? Not at all. This is entirely my own personal concerns about safety and things that I've seen personally in conversations I've had. He's serious that they think that industry. A lot of people are keying on to the background here. They're like, wait, this guy

7:18just quit yesterday. He already has a podcast studio. People are like, is that someone else's podcast studio? And so I looked at the image, tried to figure out whose podcast studio is in. It's caller daddy. Boom. Yeah, this goes way deeper. Welcome to caller daddy. I have been so excited to meet. I can't believe we've never really met. Surprise. There's a chance we could all die. Like that is coming soon. Thank you for spending the time with me. I do expect it at some point as they dig in here based on how much yeah, sort of it seems like there's very much a significant push yeah from the overarching AI safety community. Yeah. To make this week all about. Yeah, he clarified this a little bit on on Anderson Cooper saying that he like worked with a bunch of friends and wears the line between like friends and professional like, you know, we're all a big family here. We're all friends. So the answer could be muddled. I don't know. I'm sure we'll find out more soon.

8:18Anyway, you think he's going to launch a NIO lab? I think he's going to drop a coin book movie. There's going to be something. You know, the story is not over. Story is not over. There's going to be something. Maybe he launches a software as a service company. It's crazy. And then his spoon gets back. Yeah. Trying to transition here. No, it's somebody just said Sebastian says he's a D cell with a crazy P-Dume. That's a quote from Mountain head. Oh, yeah. Remember, which is now out maybe a year. Remember you watched it, which is yeah, yeah, yeah, but that was sort of a niche film. It didn't go as big as I didn't think it was a good film. But it had some funny moments. And it was about like an AI apocalypse, right? They go to like a yeah, but it was around all about. You go to a bunk. Yeah, they're bunk. There's a bunk. Okay. Yeah. Maybe I got a it's all about the the doom scenario was around deepfakes. Oh, yeah, the humanity thinking that there was like some of the greatest conflicts happening, which would create actual work. I don't know that I'm super worried about that particular scenario, but you could take me on that journey

9:22for 20 minutes and a long winded answer on a podcast. And I would be I would be entertained. I think that I think that there is material there. And I did see genuinely a lot of like sort of AI safety skeptics just asking for more storytelling around how things go bad. It's so easy to condense a P-Dume down to a single number, but I think people like stories. They want something that actually illustrates the chain of events that lead to the bad scenario as opposed to these vague things where it's like I have a lot of authority. I have a lot of insight and 5% or 20%. That that obviously I mean it does go viral, but clearly there were people that had demand for more of a story that they could track and they could and they could falsify individual. Keith Roboi yesterday was was struggling with this where it was like it's hard to falsify someone saying 10% in the next 10 years, but it's it's easier to falsify about like well the the nuclear weapons will be fired at this time and this is what's going to happen and this is how they get to the job loss stuff.

10:23Totally, totally. Anyway, we'll do a quick round up of the rest of the news. Should we talk about Nvidia? Should we talk about bending spoons? What's interesting do you, Joy? Let's start with bending spoons. Bending spoons acquires Miro for 1.79 billion. Yes. Paul Bonnet over a GP over 20 BC says but who gets the money my usual breakdown. So this is 89% below the last round and at less than less than three times around. Whoa, Miro was valued at 17 and a half billion dollars. Yeah, that's really high. Wow. Yeah. So anyways, you know, we actually don't need to dive through all this stuff. You know, investors are getting. Yes, but but I am interested in the bending spoon strategy because Air Table Miro, Miro felt like felt like modern collaborative slides and like mood boards and then Air Table felt like the modern, you know, excel sheet and it feels like they're trying to maybe piece together a bundle but I don't know if

11:27that's actually how bending spoons thinks about this. It feels like in the past they've been very interested in just it's a known brand with a strong business that they can run efficiently and it stands alone. But for the first time I'm seeing glimpses of something that could be like a portfolio or a roll up where if you have Air Table you get Miro for free or vice versa and there's cross-selling options because if you like these more modern tools like a like a Miro, like an Air Table, I've seen both of these deployed in the same startup and the startup, there's always this tension between we're paying 20 bucks a seat for this, 20 bucks a seat for that or we could just do 15 bucks for Google and we get all of them. So you actually wind up with the portfolio and I don't know maybe the sum is greater than it's parts. What do you think? Potentially but yeah it was very it's just insane to me that this was a 17 billion dollar company just just a little bit ago and ultimately this is why I have a lot of fear around like some of these like later stage or even like later stage rounds that are happening right now because

12:30they're clearly there's certain teams that are fantastic great categories great on the path to being great businesses and yet many of them feel so far from being on that path to being priced at a hundred or trillion or whatever the number is and we're going to see this exact same thing play out right now where there's companies that are around this valuation now that that three years from now will sell at a 90% discount. Yeah I'd be interested to see if like have the metrics that Miro changed in the age of AI because you could imagine that people if they need a collaborative mood board or slide deck they can vibe code their own tool but it's still a little bit of a hassle they deploy that and maintain it even if you can clone it so the SaaS apocalypse is fully a fully averted by the sales forces of the world and the revenue decline never showed up in the SaaS companies and so the SaaS apocalypse was canceled but was there a micro SaaS apocalypse that

13:32did show up at this level and that's why we're seeing these deals. I don't know. Do you think this is all just like a promotion for David Centres new episode with Lucifer Ari? Because David Centres is perfect timing. I have an episode with Lucifer Ari coming out this Sunday. This is like thank you. Thank you for lining up this deal with you coming on my podcast. No Jason says 3X 3X AR are at 600 million of AR are over 750 customers paying over a hundred thousand dollars a year cash flow positive man but Jamie Quint says multiple years of 5% ARR growth will do that. Yeah if you're not if you're not excelling I mean the entire multiple is based on growth so there's not going to be a you know a significant acceleration. You got to be growing. Yeah it's true. So another acquisition news. Oh yeah. You got a card out of a tailwind got acquired by Shopify. That's very cool. Remember if you remember I think tailwind was accelerating AI software development

14:37but wasn't directly a beneficiary. And didn't they get like sort of a bunch of people in the industry I think Google right wasn't Logan. Yeah Logan was a big part of it. I am going to provide a grant to keep these guys going. I thought that was awesome. That was like such a cool community moment and interesting that they now like found a proper landing spot. Yeah which is cool. Yeah very optimistic. We had a little bit of iPhone duo coverage yesterday. We didn't see the crease. We had a key question in the chat for selling analysis they asked what do you guys think about the crease. I couldn't see it many of those Apple renders. Apple seemed to get really good with the lighting placement to not show up the crease. True my accurate take. I don't care about this. That is not enough of a crease. Do matter at all. Yeah especially if this is a mode where you're using two apps. You don't care about the middle at all. I have seen guys on football days up four TVs next to each other with full bezels. Like you can see the line going down the center of the

15:41and I just don't care. So like this is not a big deal. Now the interesting thing is like will it be an issue if you're like watching a movie on this thing on a plane. I think may be but I think the crease will probably completely disappear when you're actually locked in on a film. But I think the bigger thing is the aspect ratio is kind of weird for modern content because we have films which are widescreen and YouTube videos which are 16 by 9 and those will show black bars at the top and the bottom or you could zoom in and then you're cropping the sides. Not a great experience. Some of the demos some of the demo video that Apple showed was super cool because it was shot in this like four three. So maybe you go back and you get some four three content from like the 70s and 80s and that displays really well because you don't need to do the the the panel scan thing anymore. But and then the vertical content will also look like bars on the side like you're on an iPad. So I wonder if that will be annoying. It'll probably melt into the

16:41background. I think people will still like it. I'm very interested in the mix. Like what percent like will this be as popular as the iPhone pro has been relative to the iPhone. Will this be 10% of overall phone sales from this cycle? Will it be 1% or 30% it's the fact that it's different. The fact that it's a way to stand out. It's their most foldable phone ever. Yeah this was a this was a comment from the list of prolific Spotify. The Spotify. Comedian Dave could come in it yesterday. It's their most foldable iPhone yet. It is. And it really is. So really it's like when they introduced the iPhone Duo 2 which will. Quattro? I think they're going to have to to multiply them and get the iPhone Quattro. Yeah. Then they'll say it's our most foldable iPhone. Yet it has four. Until it's a full accordion like fan. It just fans out. It's screened. Yeah that the fan the iPhone fan. Yeah. It's just like this. Yeah 20 different folds. What was funny is I'm

17:48going to put you on blast your little bed as you come in and you're like yeah like this just makes me want an iPhone 18 Pro and you were laying it out and you were like it's the best iPhone at yet. They it's just a great phone. They they made it thinner, lighter, faster, better battery life. And I was like this is your joke. You fell for your own joke. But it is sort of like this. It could be for some people like an anti halo phone. For some people it's going to be the halo where they're like I wanted something different. I want something bigger. I want the best thing. I got that. For other people they're going to be like well thank god I don't have to deal with the with the foldable thing. Just give me the cheaper you know $2,000 iPhone Pro Max 18 floss you know all these crazy things. Yeah. Blake shoul jump in and said when Steve Jobs introduced the iPad he went to great care to explain why such a product category should exist to begin with. Apple seems to have made a pretty great version of a foldable phone without saying why foldable phones deserve to exist. I think it would be somewhat uncomfortable for them to explain why exactly you you need a bigger screen. It's like hey you know we know some of you guys are spending hours and hours and

18:50hours a day. This is such a big picture. Okay continue. Just finish your human side can rebut. No why don't you jump in John. I just think that there is there's cool stuff to do on your phone that is actually last brain rotti when you're on a bigger screen like games on your phone like which you would from times to times from times to times. I would never watch Lawrence from Arabia on this screen but you give me a screen with twice as much real estate. I'm going Lawrence of Arabia. I'm going citizen Kane. Yeah. I'm. No and and and and I agree that that is the use case. Yeah. But I think it's somewhat uncomfortable because of the overarching sort of discussion around phone addiction and screen time and all this stuff. Yeah. It's bad for kids. It's probably not great for adults and for Apple to come out is like you know we know that you're spending hours and hours every day you know getting mindless entertainment from our devices. And so we get we get we're giving you a bigger screen. I don't think Apple needs to touch that. I think that like the things that they promote on their phone are good. Like you can answer your

19:52emails. You can connect with your friends. You can text them. You can watch educational videos. There's a positive flip to everything that's like a negative example. Yeah. There's some game that's brain rotti but there's also some game that's really fun that you remember you talk about rust and halo like these are these are core memories for a lot of people. It's a positive thing. Yeah. So being able to do more of that plus it's just like you don't know when you're it's very hard to plan ahead for like oh I'm going to get caught with an extra hour waiting at the DMV or I'm going to wait a plane or I'm going to have some downtime and I'm going to want to actually like enjoy something more thoroughly. If you have the duo it's your daily driver. It's always on you you didn't need to think I should break an iPad because I'm going to be stuck waiting this line for 20 minutes so I want to watch something nicely on a really big screen. You got the duo in your pocket you're good to go. I'm not saying I'll job. I'm not told to get get this guy a job at the Apple store. I'm not as tennis tennis. There was a match that ended at 3.30 am

20:53and people are not happy about it. The the Wall Street Journal's headline is no no no no no no no no no there's nothing cool about a tennis match that finishes at 3.30.3 am it's ridiculous. Sorry but tennis at 3.33 am isn't cool it's ridiculous. What what happened Bill Akman loved it he said one of the greatest tennis matches ever and very few got to see it live this needs to be fixed now it's unfair to the players fans and sponsors and sports. What is the actual proposal? What do they want to change start the game earlier or cut it off entirely if it keeps going? Yeah so I'm trying to figure out why why this ever was is or was a thing. I I hopefully the journal article can can break it down but I watched a little bit of this game you did I went to bed it was yeah I went to bed it was actually later night I went to bed around 11 but the game was going well past three Ben Shelton who actually won the match it was an upset

21:59was hitting 146 mile an hour serves at at Carlos Carlos at one point was chewing off the the the camera crew because they were filming him and he was throwing like actively like going to throw out he did he was like pushing it so hard that he was going to throw up into into a towel so really really crazy Wall Street Journal so sometimes this glorious sport can't get out of its own way everyone is expected to pretend night tennis is a fabulous experience we're supposed to deploy the word epic and act like we didn't brush our teeth and hit the hay after Shelton took the second set I do actually have a family member that did exactly that like blow out second set they were like all right like we're good we're good and then end up being this incredible game. The US Open has long cultivated the idea that the Wii hours are part of its identity as much of as much a part of the formula as the $23 honeyduse cocktails and the plume of cannabis smoke wafting in from a nearby park even ESPN fain's enthusiasm for the operate midnight when it would never schedule a tent pole

23:03like the iron bowl for such an uncommon hour it's a city that never sleeps why should tennis okay how many 3 30 a.m. finishes have you attended Yankee Stadium I appreciate the romance New York remains a restless town where you can get a steak dinner and a tattoo on your back long after quitting time the subway is 24 7th theater you can crawl out of a bar at dawn there are amateur bike races that start in the dark at 5.45 a.m. it's Saini but Alcharez versus Shelton isn't a corn beef sandwich at an all night diner this sounds like a I saw it's a marquee showcase for I I ever read this I think I think it's just like fun turn no it's it's good it's a marquee showcase for a sport that needs every bit of US attention it can get and it got buried like a Tom Snyder sit down with buddy hack it even people in Hawaii were like this Alcharez Shelton matches running pretty late this isn't a routine to celebrate okay I'm sorry a lot of a lot of a lot of we're gonna have to

24:04run this through pangram this is yeah this isn't a routine to celebrate this is when someone needs to step in and scream what are we doing you know I found two new AI phrases I don't remember both them one of them is in our increasingly online world when someone's writing about online culture or something that happened on the internet or like with the boom of social media like there's two phrases that were popularized because journalists who needed to write about things that happened online kept using this phrase that got baked into the lllm and then now it's getting spit back at people and so a lot of people are turning away from the phrase in our increasingly online world so avoid that one too I guess as Saini says nighttime you wouldn't understand that it's a New York thing yeah it's funny because I feel like you can maintain the the mystique of the the US open by just having games wrap up around midnight it's still very much nighttime I could start out you know

25:08people of people are sleeping anyways definitely seems just incredibly rough and unfair to the to the players this is happening in UFC a few times where the the in order to hit a US time zone for the pay-per-view the actual fighters have to be fighting at the equivalent of like 6 a.m. oh yeah it's an action yeah which is just imagine waking imagine one going to sleep at like 10 knowing that you have to wake up and get in a death match at 6 a.m sounds pretty rough the alternative is just to stay up and like you know yeah just try to try to because it starts at 6 so you got to get your fight like the whole event is starting at probably midnight but then I guess the move would probably be just don't adjust for jet lag like get there on your schedule and just treat it like it's a 6 p.m. fight for whatever your local time zone is I suppose I don't know what do you think about this chairman berb Bernanke you can eat the same thing for breakfast every

26:12single day for like 20 years in a row and no one will say anything it's normal you eat the same thing for dinner for a month straight and people call you psychotic I think it's fine to eat the same dinner every night for a month what's wrong with being a psycho I used to I used to do chicken and rice chicken rice every night yeah for months for years leave us five stars and apple podcasts and Spotify sign up for our newsletter tvpn.com and we will see you tomorrow at 11 a.m. Pacific sharp we love goodbye have a great rest of your day at the best Thursday afternoon of your entire life goodbye