BONUS: Red Sox CONCERNS after Opening Weekend - Breaking Balls with Tony Mazz

Welcome back to Breaking Balls. First full week of the Major League season coming up. Red Sox lost two out of three

to the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend. Couple things happen this series that I think are worthy of

exploring and frankly, a busting balls. So let's start with Caleb Durbin. Now, if you listen to

Felger and Mouse after opening day, I had some fun at Durbin's expense. Okay. Felger asked me on

Friday. The Red Sox opened on Thursday. Mike Felger asked me on Friday about a number of things

in the game. One of the things he asked me about was Caleb Durbin. This is the first time I'd ever

really seen him play in a big league game or noticed him in a big league game and paid attention.

So here's the exchange we had on Durbin. Sucks. I watched one game and I'm out. I'm out. He's got

nothing. Okay. Little harsh. One game. They obviously played 162. But I'll tell you what stuck out to

me with Caleb Durbin in the first game of the year. His batspeed. The first couple of bats I watched him.

In fact, I can remember vividly. He was a foul ball and I thought, boy, that swing took a long time

to get there. That was slow. And so I did a little research. I started wondering, okay, how did this guy

hit 11 home runs last year for the Milwaukee Brewers and emerges a candidate for rookie of the year?

So here's what I found out. I did a spray chart. I looked up a spray chart courtesy of fan

graphs on Durbin to see what the home runs are. The home runs are the black dots in this photo.

The blue ones are flyouts, which in retrospect, I probably shouldn't have put there at all. But I

wanted to see where the home runs went because they all went to left field. Lots of guys have

pulled power. Secondly, I wanted to see the depth of the fly balls, whether or not Caleb Durbin had

quote unquote warning track power. I don't think this really tells you that because it includes pop-ups.

But I included them there just for the sake of doing it. So the bottom line is this. If you click on

every one of those black dots and I did what you will get is a home run distance. So courtesy of some

of the databases out there, I then went out and started to look up where Caleb Durbin's ranked

and or Durbin ranked in some of these areas. What I found was that there were 203 players,

203 players in the major leagues last year who hit at least 10 home runs and averaged at least

385 feet on home runs. 385 feet is not very far. I don't need to tell you that. So that is

barely hitting one over the wall. If at all, in fact, in many ball parks, depending on whether you

hit down the line or to the alleys, 385 is not going to get out of the ballpark at all. But I put

that up as a number and there's a reason. Because if you see here on the first ranking at the top of the

list, Caleb Durbin's average home run traveled 388.6 feet. I would argue that's a deep flyout,

but whatever work with me, that's 168 out of the 203. The exit velocity of those home runs

on average, 85.2 miles per hour at bats per home run over 40, which is basically one home run

every 10 games. If he played the full 162, which nobody does anymore, you would get somewhere in the

range of 16 homeers and his bat speed. And this is the one that worries me the most. Sixth percent

towel, which means he's in the bottom six percent, not the top, the bottom six percent of major league

baseball. So here's what I'm getting at. I think Caleb Durbin is basically a full array player.

And the early numbers prove it. He had a good spring training hit 356.

Yeah, man. Well, how come he hit 356 in the spring or something like 356? And I will tell you

because there are a lot of guys who play in spring training that aren't in the major leagues,

4A players, minor leagueers. And in fact, the more I think about it, I think Caleb Durbin

is sort of the classic 4A player in the big leagues. And when I say that, I mean,

he played last year for the brewers. The National League Central might as well be a 4A division.

The America League Central is kind of the same. The Central's are central divisions are typically

the worst divisions in baseball in terms of sheer talent. That's just the way it is. There are more

mid markets and smaller markets in the central divisions. And so those teams can take players

or have players who might be borderline major leagueers and actually get something out of them.

Quick aside, I remember years ago, there was a guy in the Red Sox Organization.

I will leave out of this conversation just for the sake of discussion. And of those players

or about that player at that time, I asked someone in the organization, where does he fit in?

And they said to me, well, he probably can't play for us, but he can play for maybe Oakland,

or Milwaukee, or Kansas City, and you get the idea. Now, Oakland's in the West, but nonetheless,

small market team. So you get the drift. That's what it was for a player. This guy's the same thing

if you asked me. The scary part is the Red Sox right now have him batting fifth. Fifth, at least

against left-handed pitchers, an opening day. Through the first three games of the season,

German is over 12. He has struck out only a few times, which brings me to this. One of the

major selling points for the Red Sox, at least to the fan base, was that Durbin didn't strike out

a lot, which is great. But it's not great if what you're getting is just ground balls and singles

from your number five hitter, which is where they have put him in the lineup, given the departure

of Alex Bergman. So what you see is what you get sometimes. Bergman, who signed with the Cubs,

and ended up with a nice chunky contract of, I think it was 35 million a year, 175 million

over five seasons. The Red Sox blew that negotiation somehow some way, and they did not have a suitable

replacement lined up for Alex Bergman. So I would like you to take a minute and think about how

different the team might be. Offensively, at least, if the Red Sox had given Peter Lanzo

the 30 million he wanted, and him batting fifth, and say Wilson Contreras was batting sixth,

or Abreu was batting sixth, and then Abreu was batting something. You get the idea. If you had

a Lanzo Contreras and Abreu at four, five, and six in that area, you'd be much better off than

you are right now. Contreras could hit sixth, Abreu fifth, a four would be a Lanzo, a three would

be Duran. Now you see how that lineup fills out. And then all of a sudden, 7, 8, 9 gets more tolerable

because the middle of your lineup has some serious thunder. This team doesn't have it. And if the

Red Sox are going to win games, like they did on opening day by scores of three nothing,

they have to play fundamental baseball. They can't get picked off like Jaren Duran did on Sunday.

They can't make errors like they did in two games over the weekend. They can't make or they can't

miss location on pitches the way Greg Weissert did on Sunday. Those are all very, very important things.

So that is my two cents on Caleb Durbin. I'll just add one more thing that Tyler Milliken,

who was with us on the baseball hour on Fridays, Milliken made the comment that part of the reason

or something the Red Sox think they can do with Durbin is to increase his bat speed a little bit.

Once I hear that, I say, now you basically bought a used car that has all kinds of issues.

And now you're going to pour money into it and try to fix it when the fact of the matter is

that car never had the right engine in the first place. So consider that they went for a used car

when the fact is that they needed something bigger. Now, I want to get to the rotation too because

Garrick or Shay obviously pitched well in the opener and Connolly early pitch well on Sunday.

However, in between Sonny Gray spit the bit. And if he asked me, the Red Sox had two major needs

entering the off season. One was that right-handed bat to go in the middle of the lineup with Alex

Breggman and Roman Anthony. Now again, Roman Anthony is hitting lead off, but to me he's

the middle of the order bat. As it turned out, they lost Breggman, brought in Wilson Contreras,

and Durbin was their solution on opening day at least against lefties as the number five hitter.

And to me Durbin doesn't even come close to cutting it. In fact, I think it's an embarrassingly

bad reflection on Red Sox management. As it relates to the number two starter,

Cora was asked about the starting rotation early in the year. Actually, I should say after

opening day, Sean McAddom asked him about the low scoring game behind Garrick or Shay. The Red Sox

won the game three to nothing. And McAddom asked Alex Cora whether or not this was an indication

of things to come. The Red Sox winning low scoring games by keeping the opponent from scoring.

Here is what Cora said. There's going to be a lot of games like this more of low scoring where

you get good. I believe we have a good offense. We're going to score more, but we will pitch.

I think our bullpen is in a good spot. We got some quality arms. And obviously,

the rotation is deeper. I don't want to say it's better because I think the guys that were here

last year, they did an amazing job. Gio was amazing for us the whole season. So we still have to

go out there and perform, but we feel really good about the pitch and staff. We feel good about

the defense. We put the one play today. We got a lot of hits. It was good to see the lefties

get some hits against the lefty. He was really good. And I think offensively, we're going to be

a lot better. Now, in Cora's defense, there's one line in there that struck a chord with me.

He got me thinking. Cora said, I don't know if we're better, but we're deeper. He said, I don't

want to say better because the guys last year did a good job. And I understand what he was trying

to do. So I'm not saying that Cora suggested something. I'm just telling you, I understand what

he was trying to do. He was trying to say we still have to go out and pitch. Now, I do have the

question as to whether or not they are better. It's a good point by Cora. And I do wonder if maybe

there's a little bit of him saying, Hey, I'm not sure. Sonny Gray is a number two starter.

I'm not sure about Ranger Suarez. He had a bad spring. Doesn't throw the ball hard. And now he

has a contract to let's see. Remember, Suarez was planned beat. So Sonny Gray pitched on Saturday.

It did not pitch well. In fact, he didn't look anything like a number two starter. And I would

say historically Gray has been a middle of the rotation guy at best. There has been some durability

there. He can take the ball every five days. That's typically what you want to see in a number three

kind of pitcher. But I would also tell you that the performance wasn't that of a number two starter.

The Red Sox did not have a guy to go behind Garrett crochet in the playoffs. They still don't.

So to me, Cora or rather, Sonny Gray is not. Cora has to outstair. And I don't think Sonny Gray

is that guy. And it made me think of something that Cora said, Gray's performance on Saturday,

but something Cora said right at the beginning of the winter meetings on the M.O.B network.

He was asked about the addition of Sonny Gray. And when a manager feels really good about it,

he might say something like, okay, look, this guy's been in the game a long time. He's a horse. He's

a front-end pitcher. We put him behind crochet. We feel pretty good about the one two. With Gray,

he didn't say that. In fact, here is what he did say to Matt Faskersion and Harold Reynolds.

How about him against Rides? They hit the ball to right center. You know, the right is against him.

Do that old day at Fenway Park. We don't care. Hit fly ball to right center. We got sit down. We got

Willie. They're going to catch it and we're going to be in good shape. Okay. They hit fly balls to

right center. Well, that's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And then beyond that, right center

field of Fenway Park. So obviously, one of the biggest right center fields in baseball. It's 420

to the triangle. The bullpen's are 380. And that's cultured of the line that it is to the gap

in right center field. And this got my wheel spinning like, okay, well, wait a minute.

He's only going to play half his games there in theory. If Gray makes 32 starts, 16 of them

will be on the road. A low and behold, the season opener for Sonny Gray was on the road in Cincinnati,

where he pitched, incidentally, albeit in the 4a nationally central. But nonetheless, he

pitched in Cincinnati. And you know what happened over the weekend in his first start? He gave up a

fly ball to right center to South Stewart, a young right handed hitter first round pick of the reds.

And you know what that ball ended up in the field in the seats in right center field. It

cleared the wall. Ended up as a home run. Sedan Raffiella might have been able to run it down

in another ballpark. He's obviously in a lead defender when it comes to covering ground.

Excellent outfielder. Make some foolish mistakes sometimes. But nonetheless, a terrific outfielder.

You're not going to catch the ones up in the seats. So what I'm telling you is the two biggest

needs for the Red Sox during the off season, the things that would have separated them

from the other teams in the American League were separated them from the team of a year ago. Let's

keep it Red Sox to Red Sox in terms of comparisons. The thing that would have separated them was an

additional bat in the middle of the lineup that could hit the ball out of the ballpark and

threaten opposing pitchers. Caleb Durbin is not that guy. It's unfair to Caleb Durbin frankly,

they put him in position to fail. And Sonny Gray is not that guy. What he is is a middle of the

road starting pitcher in the major leagues who let's see at Fenway Park might be effective and

on the road might not. Let's examine that as the season goes and watch what Gray's home in road

numbers are. Excuse me, what they are. In any case, three games in the books. Again, we'll do a

national version of this a little bit later in the week. But thanks you for joining Breaking Balls

and we'll catch you next time.