Dan & Macken Survive the NFL: Week 2

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1:01but in the official Dan and Mac and Survive the NFL pick, the Jaguars made it look ridiculously easy and made me far too confident about my two team personal parlay on the Jags and the chargers and the way this NFL schedule works in the Philippines is you have a chance of watching the early games if you're up late, which I was. I went to sleep before AM when the chargers and Cardinals were tied 7-7. I got to say I don't know if there was something in the moon or the stars, but I dreamt of whatever I dreamed of. I don't remember, but I woke up on like there's no way. There's just no way the chargers won. They did not win that game. I hope I'm wrong. I looked at my phone. I was not. So they are out, but there's a reason why we like the Jaguars as our main pick. Browns are just that bad. We have an opportunity potentially to pick the Browns again. Dan, how was your NFL week 1 overall and how are you feeling about our survivor portfolio? Week 1 was not good for me. I had a lot of unders and well. We saw all the points this week. So it

2:04was just one of those weeks. I had to take the uh wasn't happy about it, but I did have a bounce back on the 4 o'clock game. So it wasn't an utter disaster. We did survive. Indeed, Jaguars is the official pick. I don't know if you watched any of that game, Mack. I hope you didn't waste your time with that game. I turned it on and three minutes into the game just showing them watching through the ugliest pick. I'm like, yeah, we'll be fine. Steelers are sharp alternative because we recorded before the two injury was announced. That was a winner for us. The chargers though. I was watching that game. They were not ready. They just didn't look good. Maybe the cardins are better than we thought. Maybe they were just more prepared at this game, but Mack and that game, the chargers just struggled all game. They struggled with the block up front. They really struggled just in general to move the ball in the running game. Now the defense did largely keep them in the game just enough, but when your offense is doing nothing all game, it's just not going to happen. And you could just see watching. I'm like, the chargers are going to lose this game. Once the lead,

3:06Mackanke got hurt, they're often to really fall for Cliff. So unfortunately, Mack, we lost a few of our entries, but we've got a few others through. I am happy. We do not have to deal with the Steelers and two of our entries and we have Jaguars in the other three we've used. So good survival week, bad betting week, but Mack, we are on to week two survivor. Yeah, the only thing I was thinking about I might have suggested differently is putting three on the Steelers. Just more you talked me into it, but that I mean, we would have gotten a better result, obviously, instead of having two on the Steelers, but that was a nip and tuck affair, even with Cooper Rush. Really the pick six turned it around. Jim Harbaugh falls to six and one straight up ATS in week one. We didn't even mention that. That was one in our in our quiver. And I don't know, Mike, my, my, my Yale graduate, Milato, brother, Mike McDaniel did not cover himself in glory in his first week with Mr. Herbert

4:06and but Herbert did not cover himself in glory. He's kind of done the Steve Francis, which is great to start your career, good second year, and been slightly worst ever since, statistically anyway. Mike McDaniel so far has not turned that around. This week, we got some of the same opponents. We might be going against. We advised you not to pick against Miami week one, but that was only because they're facing the Raiders. They are definitely a bad team and they have the biggest spread on the board plus 13 and a half. I'll run through the other big favorites, Buck and Nears hosting the Cleveland Browns. They are in need of a bounce back. The Eagles are at Tennessee. If you lose to the Jets, you're going to be on the board most weeks. The Ravens are hosting New Orleans and the Chargers, again, if you haven't used them, definitely need a bounce back and they'll be hosting Las Vegas. So Dan, dealer's choice. What were your thoughts? What's the first game you want to talk about and consider for potentially our survivor official pick in week two? To all the OG listeners out there,

5:11Mac, this is the earliest United have ever been able to discuss the 49ers. I took them and the Rams off the board this week off the Australia trip. You do have a ounce for the 49ers in week six first Washington week seven at Atlanta week eight by and week nine verse Raiders. So I am fine with kicking that can down the road. Do I think they're going to lose this week? Probably not. Do I think there's maybe a little bit of jet lag, maybe the tire, maybe they're laxed days going the first half and it gets a little bit sweeter than we want to? Maybe. And last but not least, Mac, you're the one who told me this. You want the Niners later in the year versus earlier in the year, correct? Yeah, if you look at Kyle Shanahan on a per month basis, it's kind of flat to start the year and then up into the left, where December has his best winning percentage of 63%. In September, only 55%. And that's with some very good teams. I agree. There's just zero sample size coming back from Australia. Also beating the Super Bowl favorites. I haven't been able to I didn't query that

6:16exactly, but there's just always a sense of, okay, we've made it. Maybe you to take your foot off the gas just a little bit. I don't like the 49ers at home generally. That's that I hate them at home, but it's never been a great home field advantage in the wine and cheese crowd of northern California. So I agree, although they will be the most popular pick, I think there's enough reason, especially you talk about that four week and you tell me this pre-production that four week stretch in the middle of the year. When we will still be alive, because you know, we plan for success, we can choose them any one of those weeks at Washington hosting the Raiders a bunch of different games. So I say we punt on that one. What was that stretch you were telling me about for the Niners? Week 7, 8, 9, 6. First Washington, that is a Monday Night Game Week 7 at Falcons, week 8, by week 9 verse Raiders. So let's say the Niners get more injuries and I'm hoping they're done with injuries for this year. But Mac, they keep getting hurt. You'd have a buy before the Raiders, and I don't think the Raiders are beginning much better. I don't like their defense.

7:18It did beat the crappy Dolphin, but I just think they're not as bad as Dolphin. So I think week 6, 7, 8, 9, that more in that range will be totally fine. Week 9 is November and week 6 and 7 is October. I agree with that. So the next biggest favorite on the board currently, the Seahawks were in the line at minus 10. They will not be with Sam Darnold. So we fall to, it's kind of a tie here. The Ravens and the Buckeneers are both 8 and a half. One of these because I don't necessarily love the team. I think we might want to scoop now, but which game did you consider first for this week's card? Buckeneers. I am. That game last week, if you are back in the books plus three and a half, that was infuriating and watched because the Bengals offense really didn't do anything on game. It was the Buck turnovers that killed him when he turned the ball over like that. It's just you're never going to win the game like that, but the Buck somewhat looked okay.

8:20It looked solid on offense. It looked solid on defense. It's just for the turnovers. The Bengals defense also looked a lot better than what we remember from last year. So good for you Baker. He was just doing too much and it wasn't working. The Buckes do not have another out. I can't really find a strong argument from the Mac. Maybe week six versus dealers, but up and down, you're not survivable level confident. A lot of these games are closer to 50-50, maybe 60-40 territory for the Buckeneers. Todd Bulls does pretty well to start the year. De-Sjorn Watson is going to play this game last night. Even though nobody wants him to play, he's just awful. And do you really think the Browns are really going to be max motivated here with De-Sjorn Watson in the game? I think they're done. Defender fully done. But Mac, this was high in my card. This is just because we have no opportunity after this. We do use them. So I think we should consider the Buckeneers for at least one of our entries. I agree. They were my favorite pick on the board for a couple of reasons. They're not staying in Florida. It's not uncommon when you have

9:25two road games far from home to do a little mini road, mini training camp and stay in the area. But Todd Bunken says, it's not that far of a trip. It's not like we're going to the West Coast. Although I think if you looked at a map, I'm not sure if Cleveland's closer to the West Coast or closer to Southern Florida. But they're not staying. They're going back to Cleveland and then back to Florida. So four plain trips for them in short order. And I think you're right. I think motivational wise, a lot of maybe secret Sanders backers may just not have the same gumption and stick to it of this in practice and coming up into this game. And Todd Bowles did not work in week one, but an excellent early of the season coach. He is now dropped from six and two to six and three in week one. And he is six and two straight up in a T.S. in week two. Hasn't dropped one as a favorite. So I think nothing from the Buccaneers dissuade me to think they are a middling team.

10:26And I think the Browns did plenty to convince me they are a bad team, especially with their current quarterback situation. So we'll put a pin in that one. That was my favorite one, just at first blush to get us through to survive in advance. The Ravens got to be impressed with them. But are we also impressed with the Saints? What do you think of that game? Ravens, they dominated my crappy Colts. I was watching that game back. I'm like, yeah, Chris Boud, you still can't draft the defense. You guys still can't cover and you still don't have a pass rush up and down all day. And Zay Flour was probably going to drop 200 yards on the Colts before he pulled his aim string as we record this unknown. He's going to play or not. So that's kind of a big loss to them. Jacobi Lane is also out for the next four weeks. So they did lose two wide receivers. Derek Henry and Coe should be fine. But maybe we kicked this came down the road a couple more weeks just because they are a miss and Zay Flour. The Saints last week, I don't know what happened back because I was

11:26watching that first half. They looked awful. And in the second half, they just remembered how to play football. So they did come back and over time. And I don't know if you have this trend or not, but you do not want to be backing road teams off OT games. They've not done very well. Do you have that trend? That's a great one. I'll pull that up while you're talking. Okay. So Lions last week, everyone know they came back. Maybe could have won. Maybe not could have won. But that was just a that was a very pathetic lines defense missing some guys. You probably won't get the same same type of defense this week for Sarayman. They looked awesome. They will be able to cover. You have another game of Tyler Schuck under the belt. And after last week, Crystal Lobby went in and out a lot of he came. I thought he was going to get hurt in that game. But just look at the Saints and all of them. So in general last week compared to what we thought they might do. I still don't know if that was actually a good game for them or them just playing the line. I need more samples. So I don't think they're going to win this week. Ravens probably win. But

12:31just when you're missing two wide receivers here, I think it's just a good time to pass. So yes, your memory serves you well. 43% ATS over hundreds of games when you are a road team that lost an overtime on the road last week. And by the way, it gets worse if you lost that overtime game. 39.5% straight up, which is what we care about. Let me throw in if you're a dog. I'm curious. All right, not good 25% ATS. And if you were a dog last week, I'm sorry, that was straight up. Yeah, you're not winning these games very often. Only 27% when if you're a dog in both weeks. I'm not sure if the Lions just kind of fell asleep. It was very comfortable for them. But then again, if Jared Goff gets called for a backward pass, which was a backward pass, which was a backward pass, this might be a different game when all things are said and done. I think the Saints are good enough to keep an eye on. And there will be other times where we can take advantage of the Ravens.

13:33Also, I also kind of like them on the road for whatever reason. Maybe it was just the dome that makes it so easy, the fast track for them to make their offense that much more impressive. The Eagles here are seven point road favorites, speaking of road teams. Are the Titans that bad Dan? What do you think? Yes, but that's confirmation bias by me. I was on a big fan of Kim Warren coming out. I absolutely despise the team and the organization. They went to, they don't have a head coach, they don't have a GM, they have a terrible owner, they don't draft well. And now people are like, oh, Kim Warren's not very good. I'm like, oh, who would have thought you need to build a real team around them? But then again, I, I, I don't know, I don't know that. No, but the Titans were that then they have no hope. They did nothing well last week. They, that was a phony final score. I thought the Jets probably should have put up more points and they were lucky to be somewhat close in that game. I just don't know what the Titans do well. The Eagles last week. That was very,

14:35I'm concerned about keeping that team going forward and they do play Thanksgiving, bursting Cowboys. So I'm not that thrilled with them playing burst Cowboys. Thanks, Kevin Week. So I wouldn't mind using them here, but that offensive line last week was not very good. Landon Dickerson with the IR admitted he was just terrible because he was terrible last week. So Mac, I am very concerned with holding the Eagles. They already lost an offensive line then. We know this team falls apart without Lane Johnson. We know Jalen Hertz is not the greatest throwing QB. We know that Vick Fangeo is off and is, or my apologies, defense is awesome. So they should be able to hold the Titans here. Let's say that Eagles often struggles again. Do we truly trust the Titans to be able to do anything? I don't. I just don't have much faith the Titans can do anything. I think people are finally putting together the Titans are truly that bad. They are on the dolphins level bad. They are on the browns level bad. They're probably in the conversation now, Mac here. Very quickly, if they not already accepted this reality, they probably need

15:38a new quarterback. But then again, Rebecca Square won Mac that they've still not built their real team, with a real GM, the real coach. So well, it matter probably not. But this is a maybe problem, Mac. We should probably consider them for at least one entry. And I am fine with not using them for Thanksgiving for my apologies at the Cowboys. That week is just one of those probably 50-50 games. I'm not thrilled with them. Maybe the analysis on is good, but I could see Eagles losing this game. And I could see the Eagles often in general this year being very reminented up last year where they really struggled all year and just didn't do anything well. So Mac, I know I just threw a lot out there for you for the Eagles Titans, but what do you feel about using them now instead of saving them for Thanksgiving? Hey, forget something? Relax. You're taking grocery outlet home with you. It's right there in your phone. Shop Instacart or DoorDash with the same grade item prices as in store. So if you forgot the milk, you didn't really forget the milk. Grocery outlet, Deals Delivered. This January, Bear Nuckle Fighting Championship takes over the ocean.

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17:47Visit fandall.com slash believe to get started. That's BLEAV. Make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandall. 21 plus select states for Kansas in affiliation with the Kansas star casino 18 plus DC Wyoming first online real money wager only minimum $5 wager for seven consecutive days. $5 first deposit required bonus issued as a nonwood drawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply. Seed terms at sportsbook dot fandall.com gambling problem called 1 800 gambler 1 800 my reset call 1 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut visit md gambling help.org in Maryland visit gambling help line ma.org call 1 800 3 2 750 50 and Massachusetts call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why text hope and why in New York call 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 7 8 6 7 to Louisiana. I kind of like it for an entry or two. A couple things. One is like let's say they have five three and 30

18:50and outs three and I was like they did last week. Okay. Well they scored 24 points against a better defense last week with five three and outs are kind of low variance because we're not expecting the offense to really carry the day. They're just kind of a talented team that's going to lean on you until they get the better of you by the end of the game. The total by the way the market isn't impressed by their offense. This is dropped from 41 and a half to 39 and a half. So again that kind of lends itself to lower variance. I like using them here. I think it's a little bit off meta from what a lot of people are going to do if they're picking the 49ers and some of the bigger favorites. So I like I like putting a couple of chips in that basket. Yeah. Don't mind that at all. And we we're going to need a team Thanksgiving week, but at Dallas. I don't think any team maybe in the league would be favored. Maybe the Rams would be one or one and a half point favorite. Maybe the bills or the if the chief start start getting putting things together. But at Dallas. I know they disappointed week one. But I'm not sure it was all Dallas. That made that

19:53game such a disappointment for Cobboy's fans. I think this next team we're going to talk about maybe has a little bit of an identity. Maybe you can do some stuff. So some people will be considering Rams minus seven seven point one right here on my screen. You know some juice on the seven. So happy seven hosting the giants again. You get the 15 hour plane flight coming all the way back to 15 hour plane flights within a 45 hour period, which seems insane. I don't know if there's much of a sample size in any sport to ever especially something as physical as that. Maybe a tennis player has done it, which is pretty physical. But you know what I'm saying. I just don't think we're certain. Both the Rams in the 49ers have terrible showing. Don't cover by 14 points. I don't think we should be shocked. I think it is in play as something that could happen. We've seen trips back from Europe, but not exactly this. And the giants. EPA wise had one of their better games in like a decade. They scored 28 points because it was very low possessions. They only had three possessions in the second half. I think that might

20:59go to their advantage here because if the Rams offense gets going, but you only give them eight possessions in a game, you hold them to a couple field goals and you're in this game late. So I predicted on the show with Scott on Monday that it would drop from seven and a half all the way to seven to a point and a half move from the opener at eight and a half for the look ahead line, I should say. And I'm not sure there's not more giants money coming. I'm not sure it's not deserving. What do you what do you make of this game for survivor purposes. I think we should just pass because the Packers go to the Rams for Thanksgiving week and that's probably the game we're going to use the Rams. They do have a by week before that. So they would play a game by and then they're playing that Wednesday game and it would count for us. And the Thanksgiving slate is very tough. It is Packers at Rams bears out lions. And then he goes at Cowboys. Yes, my apologies. I was looking it up right now. Taking a member and then there was a late game and then the Friday game, the Black Friday game does count for us that week, but that is the Denver Broncos going to Pittsburgh Steelers and I'm going to

22:04back. I don't want to use a Broncos there and let's really have to see them lose that game because going next. So I mean, it's in Pittsburgh. So even if the three points better, that's a pick on Broncos by one type line. And I'm not sure they're three points better at this point. The way we saw them perform in week one. Yeah, looking at that like right now, gun to my head, I wouldn't even blink. Rams would be the pick for me of all any of those four games bears look monstrous, monstrous of midway. And the Cowboys might be better than the Eagles as good as the Eagles. Good enough to make that game a real game. So yeah, Rams hosting the Packers, Matt LaFlor lost six games in a row. I looked to somebody at a 66% winning percentage. Only like Nick Seriani and Jim Harbohn only a couple people in the league have a better winning percentage, but you lose six straight. There is going to be just a little bit of heat coming up on your seat there and Would love it if they completely implode for survivor purposes. Nothing gets the guy personally, but would love it if they are just not the team that we think they're going to be haven't won a game since Mike Parsa.

23:10Like a Parsons went down and they would be I think close to six point underdogs right now going to the Rams, especially if the Rams are healthy at that point. So that is the touchdown and bigger favorites. We've scanned through them. There are some us alternatives. You know, kind of in the same range chargers. We mentioned six and a half point hosting the Raiders. That's moved from eight and a half in the look headlines. So major downgrade on Mike McDaniel's Chargers. I'm going to start calling them that. And really that's the only that's the only other one in the in the bigger favorite range. There's Thursday night football where bills are minus five and a half hosting the Lions. For those that are trying to diversify their bond, so to speak, what would be a sharp alternative or just a game that you've considered that might be a little off meta. Cowboys was considered this week just to be a little bit different, but again, in ties and Thanksgiving. So if you listeners, I'm going to assume a lot of you have to use a Thanksgiving game versus a standard just two games that week.

24:12I don't mind the Cowboys. I think the bounce back. I'm not a big man. I think last week they just looked a lot better because the Eagles offence was that bad. So I want to mind them this week. I don't mind Kansas City either. I thought the Colts might be able to bounce back. I'm like, I don't know with their defense right now. Maybe the Colts offence might be a lot better this week. And I could see that situation. Maybe just Patrick my homes in Kenneth Walker just had a really good game in Denver had the game from hell to start the year. So I don't mind that one, but you can kick that came down the road. And if you're in the circuit contest, you have to use Christmas week. And I believe they are playing Christmas week and or week days, depending on how they phrase that contest. So you might want to skip that game. And that's a brutal, brutal three game slate Mac. I am so happy you and I do not have to deal with that. The one other team that did cross my mind, you mentioned the chargers. It's kind of now or never for them because the next six to eight weeks are beyond brutal. And there's probably a 0% chance or at least 1% chance we would use them in that stretch.

25:19The one other team that kind of stood out and I I'm not thrilled saying this out loud. Bryce Chung in the Caroline and Panthers. So Mac, I went looked up and down the schedule. They have two survivor s games this week at Atlanta because it sounds like two or Cooper Russia playing. We still don't know them status of Michael Patex. He hasn't taken real snap and so long. He'll be rusty. I know that Panthers offense just moved the ball on the bad Bears defense. That Falcons defense is probably a little bit better than the Bears defense. But that's not really saying much. And that Falcons defense last week looked a lot better because they're still as often as was that pedestrian. So Mac could I talk you into at least one Panther survivor because week two at Falcons versus a backup or rusty Michael Patex and then week three at Cleveland. And I could see them losing that game. Honestly, which should do us the Anders probably finally coming in. But it's just kind of now or never for the Panthers. And this would be a big edge for us because they probably are not in that top 18 is top 20s range.

26:27The teams are probably closer to 24 or 25 for most of the year. So I don't mind that one as you want to be contrarian. That would be my sharp alternative and my buyer beware because I don't like Bryce Chung. It's just one of those is just like it is gross. If you need to use a gross team, this would be a bad time to use them. Let's get a little messy. I like the Panthers here for one of our six entries because they're so off meta. If it's a complete turmoil week with a bunch of I mean a lot of favorites came in last week. If there's a bunch of upsets and the market gets a little too sure of himself and some of these teams bounce back like oh and one teams tend to do. Maybe the Panthers being on that plane if you guys will do as well. So hmm the chargers I feel like they also they just can't lose but I also don't like them at home and I was kind of kicking myself for playing them at home. Never been a good home team in San Diego or LA really throughout their history. So six entries. Let you have the final say but I think we put at least three on our official pick of the Buccaneers. I think we put one on the Panthers and

27:37maybe two on the Eagles. What do you think? I gave you bad information pre-production. We are actually five entries. My bad. I was looking at the wrong one. We have five. We have three chargers. Let me correct you. So we do have five total left. We use three Jags two Steelers. So one Bucks one Eagles would like one Panthers and then we have two more left. So two Bucks two Eagles one Panthers. I like it. We'll mix the math. These in laughter. We get off. But I don't mind that because if we use a Jaguars and one we could use the Panthers and the other that would offset it. That'd give us at least one Bucks and one other team with the Jays and Steelers to help your first five time of the risk in the teams. And I think that covers everything Mac. Nothing else really stood out this week. If you listeners don't want to go down the board this week. Maybe you went down the board last week with the Jets or Raiders. I wouldn't mind skipping the Panthers. But if you're in that splash contest.

28:39Well, it's now or never for the Panthers and you're going to use 24 total selections in the way that conscious is set up Mac in the double weeks. It's just two teams for the week for the whole week. First what you and I have to do where we have to have a Thanksgiving week. And then we have to know the week after that. There's just two full week. So buyer beware. I think we've kind of done a double buyer beware with the Australia teams. The 49ers. I think they're going to win. I think it's 875% they're going to win. It's not that I think they're going to lose. It's that I wouldn't be shocked. Again, this is a zero sample size thing we're dealing with the Rams. I just looked this up. They are in a good trend spot. But there's zero trends for coming back from Australia. But being a favorite versus a team that one last week as a dog. When you lost as a favorite last week in week two is 15 and two straight up in the database here. So a lot of these teams bounce back. But then again, if they're 0 and 2. They were only two last year. There were one in three last year and they were super bowl favorites are close to it by the end of the year. They know how much of a marathon. It is they are not going to be.

29:49Two disillusioned if they lose this game. I think they could. So my buyer beware is the 49ers and the Rams are sharp alternative. It's razor sharp. I think it's the Panthers. You're not going to have a lot of other weeks to use them. They just put up 37 points on the bears. They put up 31 points in their last time out against the Rams. So those two playoff teams that they're putting up numbers against the Falcons are not that. Panthers are if they put up 30. They have a 99.9% chance to win. I think we are in a good shape. Our official pick is the Buccaneers. Any other thoughts, plays, parlays that you're thinking about for the people before we head into the week. Yes, before we go, Mac, if if Tula is good to go, I don't know if he's going to be good to go. They don't sound very committed to him. I really like the Panthers. If it's Cooper Rush, he was having backspasm today and being his back treated and the coach came out and said he's not 100%. Wow, you guys might be down to your fourth string quarterback. If it's a fourth string or Michael Penex, does that give you any hesitation for this Panthers pick at all or would be like, I really have the other two guys.

30:57I had to look this up. I can't say I knew it. Jack Strand, the undrafted rookie from MSU Morehead, is their quarterback and no, it would not bother me. I know sometimes people come in, you got no tape on them. They surprise some people. If it's Michael Penex, I think they're rushing them back. And I don't think it was that great anyway. So it'd be, it'd be their best case scenario if you're a Falcons fan. But either way, I am, I'm very optimistic that we get to the finish line with this Panthers pick on the road. And that we'll do it for NFL for Dan and Macon survive the NFL week two. Thanks for hanging with us. We gave you an official winner. Sorry about our second pick not coming through. That's pretty much what happened to the market. Those were the two top two picks. This week we are going a little off meta with the buck and nears. And I think we're going to get there. We're going to start stacking these together. Thank you, Dan. Thank you to Fan Dual, which I should have mentioned at the beginning of the bottom. Pretty sure don't yell at me. Scott. And thank you to Scott Steinberg, the man with the plan and the better day community put it all together for all those that are still alive. Keep on surviving.