TNF Preview & Same Game Parlay

0:00This is Angus Maximus. This bomber has one pound of a pound of hot. Suzy cooked to honor Angus Speed. It's more fish than a quarter pounder. The battle is closed. And for only 599, even regular juice can afford it. Like that guy. You can get that big of that. Yeah. He holds Angus Maximus. Only 599 is cold senior. A bill for a limited time in participating restaurants. Taxi not included. Not valid for use within a combo or in combination with any other offer or discount. Saturday, September 26th, two of combat sports most dangerous strikers collide. Bear knuckle. Liver pulls on down the gorilla tail goes to war with Cuban powerhouse. Yoel soldier of Da Vramero. Plus the bear knuckle middleweight championship of the world is on the line when the rating champ Dave the redneck Mandel defense against undefeated British challenger. Jack the meat cleaver colon BKFC 94 till verse Ramero. Watch it live only on the zone. Sign up now at the zone dot com.

1:00Kitchen and bathroom professionals know what goes behind the tile matters. That's why trade pros trust fiber cement party backer board to keep tile firmly in place, resist cracking and held block moisture. Chosen in over 40 million kitchens and bathrooms party backer board. What the best build on shop now at participating home depot, lows and floor into core stores. For more information, visit James Hardy dot com slash hardy backer. Look for these better days. It is Thursday, September 17th. Thumbs got said in Berk. Here's what you need to know to make today a better day week two of the NFL season kicks off tonight to the Troy lines at the Buffalo bills. It is the regular season debut of the new high mark stadium. We will build a same game parlay go over some trends as well as recap an article that published yesterday up on better day dot com on week two betting strategies. Brandon Cravitz joins me on this episode of better day presented by Fandall Brandon welcome to the better day podcast.

2:05You major debut up on better day dot com last week with a great prop shop article, which will be featured weekly and some premium picks as well as free picks. So welcome to the better day podcast glad to have you on board. Well, it's good to be here once I saw this better day website slash app great apparatus for us sports betters out there pop up, especially run by someone like yourself. I knew I had to be involved in it and I'm glad that we were able to make that happen and even split in week one, which with all the unknown that we have as far as the prop shop goes. I am pleasantly I'll take it. I'll just say that I'll take it and we'll see if we can build on it from here. Well, with you doing the prop shop article every week, it's great to have you on board on the Thursday mornings because we're going to cook up a same game parlay for these Thursday night football games courtesy of our friends over at Fandall. We got the lines and the bills tonight. I mentioned it's the regular season debut of the new high mark stadium. Now we're not going to see some weather because it is September 17th.

3:09Right. So we're not going to be impacted by any weather here, but one of the things that I'm very interested in with this new stadium is the effect that the wind is going to have. Now, I know that some people debated this during the preseason when they had the the game there, but from all reports that we heard when they were building the stadium and this goes back to the hard knocks episode with the bills on it when Josh Allen was taking a store tour of the stadium. The engineers explained how the way that it was designed was to mitigate the effects of wind at field level where it could be swirling outside heavy winds gusts, but at field level, it would not impact you wouldn't feel it. And Josh Allen was like, wow, that's really cool. And they were like, yeah, the way that we designed it, the shape and all that stuff. So I said when that came out and I talked about it in the preseason this year leading up to the stadium opening. I said when we have a windy game in Buffalo or orchard park, right. And everyone is rushing to bet the under because windy unders, right. That's the way to go.

4:18We're going to pivot and bet the over on a reduced number because we know, or at least we are being told that the stadium construction eliminates the wind factor at field level. As far as tonight goes, I'm not really worried about the wind. It looks like that's not going to cause us much trouble. Three mile an hour winds, seven mile an hour wind gusts. That's not enough to impact the way that we're betting into this football game. I also think stylistically of the teams that we're talking about never worried about Josh Allen. I mean, that's one concern that we do not have if the wind were to become a factor. But as you mentioned, those wind gusts going to be less of an issue at high mark as it is, it would impact Jared golf more. Also the kicking game. And that is one area where I am looking at taking some unders tonight under one and a half field goals on Jake baits specifically Dan Campbell is not kicking field goals in this game. I mean, he'd have to be like fourth and 10 from the 30 down by two.

5:20Otherwise, he's going for it throughout the course of this game. I do think points will be scored. Will the over be hit that that's for you to decide. I mean, it'll certainly be in range, but they are not going to hit overs in this game because of field goal attempts. So I would look the way of the Lions kicker and a really aggressive Dan Campbell. Jake baits under one and a half field goals is one of the ways that I would look here. All right, so shop around for that Jake baits field goal under one and a half leg also maybe for bass as well. Maybe this is just a game that is not determined by the kickers. I want to start building our same game parlay, but I also want to talk about the spread here real quick, Brandon up on Fandall right now. The bill is four and a half point favorites with the total of 54 and a half. And everyone's talking about the idea of the Lions coming off an overtime game, which historically this has been. A very profitable fade going back to the 2012 season teams that are coming off of overtime and then play on the road on a Thursday night for and 13 straight up five and 12 against the spread.

6:29However, if you look for a shortened sample just in the last couple of years since the start of the 2021 season, while these teams are two and five straight up, they're four and three against the spread. So I wonder if that's telling us that the market has caught up to how bad of a spot this is and over recent years, it's being priced in accordingly. So maybe the Buffalo bill should only be a three point favorite and not a four and a half point favorite here in week number two. Does that make sense? It makes a lot of sense. I mean, I kind of look, I try and enter into sports betting as non-egotistically as I can. The moment that I start using a game factor into the point spreads that I project, I assume the folks that are operating these sports books already have me beat by a couple of years. So I'm I'm factoring this in there's no reason why draft Kings, Fandall, Bed MGM wouldn't as well, which means it's part of the spread and once but when something becomes part of the spread, you're going to see those trends start to

7:36regress towards the median more than anything else. So it's not a surprise at all. It is a factor. It's something to add to your analysis. I would never say throw it away, but it gets added to the line. It's not a reason to bet on anything. Well, the other thing that I noticed about these games, starting with the 2021 season team coming off of overtime and then playing on the road on a Thursday. Six and one to the under. Six and one to the under. And if we go back to the 2020 season, it's 97 and one to the under. So the stronger under trends are recent as well. What do you feel about 54 and a half is that number two high we've seen so far the prime time games go under here in week number one. Yeah, I just, I think trend wise, this is where I'm not playing the total in this game because trend wise, it points you directly to the under. It's, it's over reaction week in the NFL. You had two games that scored over 60 points with both of them in week one. So naturally, everyone that casually bets on the NFL is going to be on the over. That's a great time to go the other way, but I can't bet the under in this game.

8:49Not when you have the lines just got torched by Tyler Schuck and the bills got torched by CJ Stroud. So in a game that has Jemeer Gibbs and James Cook and DJ Moore and James and William. This is a fantasy paradise. I'm not taking the under, but, but the, but the over is just way too casual for me. So I'm going to just set this one out from a total perspective. So there are some trends that have to do with the Buffalo Bill is here, an article up on better day dot com. It is free for everybody can go check that out. I tweeted it out as well. It has to do with week two betting strategies and I looked since the start of the 2021 season as I always do. And the Buffalo Bill is fall into two fade categories here in week number two. The one and O over valued favorites. So if you won your game in week number one and then your favorite in week number two, you are 18 25 and three against the spread.

9:49When you're at home in week number two as the favorite again, you're one and O seven 18 and one against the spread, failing to cover by four points per game. Now the reason why I did this study is because I wanted to see how the recency bias plays in here after week number one. And perhaps these teams are a little bit over valued. Now it's hard to say the Buffalo bills are over valued because we know how good the Buffalo bills are. But in general, I think the market over reacts or the public over reacts to one week performance. Again, I like the Buffalo bills just because they are the Buffalo bills and they're at home and it's a great spot situational wise with with with the lines coming off the overtime game and being on the road here early in the season. But it is very interesting when you think about the fact that a lot of these one and O favorites have been over valued since the 2021 season and do not cover the spread. I mean, that's not a surprise. I mean, that's what that's what week two is all about. It's about not over rating teams. It's about not under rating teams based on them, crapping the bed in week one. If you just simply follow that path in week two, which is so much easier said that done and I understand that.

11:05I mean, I'm betting the jets this weekend. So not everything I say is gospel people. Well, sometimes you do buy in. But if you were to just follow the path of I'm not going to overrate the teams that performed well, I'm not going to underrate the teams that didn't perform well based on how I felt about them before the season. I think you would come out quite profitable. It's just hard to do that in in practice. The other side of this Scott is that not only do you have the bills that are slightly overvalued based on their performance last week, you have the lions who come in undervalued teams that failed to cover the spread in week one that enter week two as under dogs, which the lions fit that trend. In fact, I think they're the only good team this week that fits that trend 70% against the spread since 2014. The other teams this week that fit that Titans, Falcons, dolphins, Colts, that's disgusting. If you want a nice sexy dog that didn't cover in week one, you've got one option. And it's on Thursday night football. This is Angus Maximus. This partner has one pound of hot. She'll see cooked to water and just speak. It's more face to the quarter pounder. The battle of clothes. And for only 599, even regular dudes can afford it. Like that guy. You need that big old man. Yes. The whole Angus Maximus only 599 is cold senior.

12:30A bill for a limited time of participating restaurants tax on included not valid for use within a combo or in combination with any other offer or discount. I don't know if I have it in me. I mean, I think it's the short play to take the 4 1 half. I just I really like the bills in this matchup with them coming off over time. But you know something. Let's build the same game parlay here courtesy of our friends over at the fandom of sportsbook. And let's go ahead and let's do it. Let's do leg number one. Lions plus 4 1 1 2. I'm doing it. Feel goal game. Let's go lions plus 4 1 1 1. Leg number one all the trends are pointing us in that direction. Leg number two. I'm actually going to go with a Buffalo bills player. And let's go DJ more with his receiving yardage numbers. Now week number one was great against the Houston Texans. Five catches on eight targets for a hundred yards and a touchdown. His line right now. If we look at the receiving yards for DJ more up on Fandall 62 and a half is his over under.

13:35You could have gotten a better number. Maybe shop around to see if you can get a better number. But what do you think about leg number two over 62 and a half receiving yards for DJ more. DJ more was heavily involved first half of the game. He was in on 80% of the snaps. The only problem with DJ more is that when they play 13 personnel. He which a lot of these teams are doing in the bills included in that. When you have those three tight ends on the field. He was taken off. And then in the second half it looked like he got banged up a little bit. But that's also when he had his biggest play of the game. I like it. I mean, it going up against a team that just let Chris Alave look like Jerry Rice. I mean, I like Alave and I like Alave better than I like DJ more. But you know, the matchup plays into the factor here. The Lions defense and their secondary specifically is going to get tested throughout the course of the year. This should be a good DJ more game. I also like Dalton King Kate too, but I think I'd rather go on the line side with our third leg. All right. So let's go. What do you think give us a third leg here for the same game, Parley from a Lions perspective.

14:36Okay. I'm actually I'm going to give you three and then you tell me which one you want to slam in there. Because I've got two unders and it over the over is a lot more fun than the two unders. I think because this is a Thursday night game because this is now just week two on a short week. You've got two teams that played a lot of snaps. A lot of the conversation is about the Lions playing into overtime. The bills played 77 snaps on defense to both of these teams are going to be dog tired. Both of these coaches are likely to try and shorten this game as much as they can. I like the under on both pass attempts for the quarterbacks under 35 and a half for Jared golf under 30 and a half for Josh Allen. Those are two that I'm going to throw your way. The third, which is a lot sexier is that if you like those two, you kind of have to like one of these running backs to go over their total. If we're going to ground and pound a little more, Jameer Gibbs over 88 and a half rushing yards. He had 92% of the running back opportunities for the Detroit Lions.

15:41This gave up a monster day to David Montgomery just wait till they run into the modern day, Ladinian, Tom Linson. So those will be my three nominations. You tell me which one you want to slam in there. Well, the passing attempts we can't build in the same game parlay up on Fandole, but I do like those as standalone bets. So let's go with one of the running backs and you like Gibbs over his line is 90 and a half up on Fandole right now. James Cook is at 78 and a half. I kind of want to go towards Cook just because I feel like we're paying attacks maybe on Gibbs and for Cook because he didn't have a good performance in week number one. Maybe there's an idea of the bounce back and we're buying low on James Cook. What do you think of pivoting and doing cook over 78 and a half instead of Gibbs over 90 and a half, which I think both can hit by the way. Very much so I think if we're going to go cook though, I think that we should probably look at slamming his receiving number in there as well because of the way that Joe Brady is always in those games where James Cook has been at his best. He gets James Cook involved in the past game as well. So I wouldn't want to leave the receiving yards on the table.

16:50If we're going to look at James Cook, that would be my only provision, but I'm fine buying low on Cook. He was one of the guys I had in the first the first ever prop shop I had his under last week. So that was one that we cashed on. So I love that. So we pivot to go the over this week James Cook over 100 and a half rushing plus receiving yards. So our three leg build right now up on Fandole lions plus four and a half DJ more over 62 and a half James Cook over 100 and a half. 100 and a half rushing plus receiving yards plus 669, but you know we can't be done there. We need to add one more leg to jack this baby up. And because it's a primetime game because of those under trends, because we want the negative correlation with the overs on the receiving yards and the overs on James Cook rushing and receiving. I know dog and under is somewhat correlated because we're taking the points to dog. I'm throwing in under 54 and a half as our final leg are four legs. Same game parlay pays out up on Fandole plus 1841.

17:59Alright, this is going to be quite the sweat on Thursday night to get home on on all of this and hopefully we can thread that needle. I look forward to it. So leg number one lions plus four and a half leg number two DJ more over 62 and a half receiving yards leg number three James Cook over 100 rushing and receiving yards that by itself pays out plus 669. We throw in the under 54 and a half and we are at plus 1841. I like that by adding that final leg for our same game parlay for Thursday night football between the Detroit lines and the Buffalo bills before we wrap up here Brandon any feel for the Thursday night college football game tonight Syracuse at pit where pit up on Fandole 9 and a half point favorite total of 51 and a half. Yeah, last week you had the monsoon of all monsoons with pit taking on my UCF nights. And so I think people might be a little bit down on that pit offense, but so much of that was weather related. The game was delayed.

19:04And then it was just an absolute slop fast. Do you see us defense is sneaky good this year, but Mason Heinschle is a stud seven touchdowns in week one. I would look the way of the over in this one. I think pit puts up a number on Syracuse. I like it. I like it. I can get behind that as well over 51 and a half Syracuse at pit tonight are loan FBS college football game here on this Thursday night. I Brandon wants to tell everybody what you have coming up on on your pods where they could find you and of course your prop shop article becoming up this weekend here on better day dot com. Yes, for sure. I do two weekly podcasts with the with action network and catch me on the favorites. We lock in our five contest plays against the spread on Thursday's episodes. So that's coming up tomorrow. Just search the favorites. Remember you download your favorite podcasts. And then if you are in the state of Florida like me and you like betting on the teams inside of this peninsula.

20:04I also do a podcast that just simply isolates those teams to retake in Gators UCF FSU Jags Bucks dolphins preview pod available right now. It's called the Florida line with a pregame show first thing in the morning on Saturdays. So the moment you wake up that thing will be ready for you right out of the oven. Love it. And I think I'm holding my nose with the dolphins here this weekend more on that can be found in our week two betting strategies article up on better day dot com. As always you guys can download the better day mobile app you can find the article there as well. And so we take it with the green assault but trench report is updated both NFL and college football on better day dot com and the better day mobile app for brand and the Kravitsom Scott side and Merck here's hoping you make today and every day a better day.