Football Friday: NFL Week 3 & CFB Week 4

0:00Welcome to the newest grocery outlet location. Your couch! No parking lot, no shoes required. And the commute is approximately 0 feet. Because now you can shop Instacart or DoorDash and get your grocery outlet favorites delivered right to your door, with the same great item prices as in-store. Your couch has never been this productive. Grocery outlet. Big deals. Now delivered. Saturday, September 26th, two of combat sports' most dangerous strikers collide. Bear Knuckle. Liverpool's own down in the gorilla tail goes to war with Cuban Powerhouse, LL Soldier of God Romero. Plus the Bear Knuckle Midowit Championship of the world is on the line. When the raining champ Dave Veredneck Mundell defends against undefeated British challenger, Jack Demeek Cleaver-Colin, BKFC 94, Till vs Romero. Watch it live only on the zone. Sign up now at thezone.com.

1:00Kitchen and bathroom professionals know what goes behind the tile matters. That's why trade pros trust Fiber-Sement party backer board to keep tile firmly in place, resist cracking, and help block moisture. Chosen in over 40 million Kitchen's and bathrooms, party backer board, what the best build on. Shop now at participating Home Depot, Lowe's, and floor into core stores. For more information, visit JamesHearty.com slash hearty backer. Look at what he's better day. It is football Friday, September 25th. I'm Scott Zeddenberg. Here's what you need to know to make today a better day. The Falcons beat the Packers on Thursday night football 35 to 14, as we had several best bets cash up on betterday.com. We'll react to last night's performance by the Falcons and Michael Penix. Take a look at the weekend in football and hear from Steve Fesik and Michael Fiddle from our better day football show. It's all coming up on this episode of Better Day presented by Fandall.

2:02We start with Thursday night football. We're last night. We gave out a best bet on the Falcons plus three and a half in the first half. Should have took them on the money line, but Falcons plus four and a half for the game, plus five and a half for the game, wherever you got it, never in doubt as they blow out the Packers 35 to four. Michael Penix making his season debut through an interception on the very first drive for the Atlanta Falcons. But then the Packers did what they have done all season. And that is not get a first down on a drive. They lead the league in possessions this year without getting a first down. So they go three and out. They then get the football back. They drive down the field to score a touchdown. And then the Falcons answer thanks to a drive that was aided by a roughing the passer penalty. But Michael Penix settled in very nicely after that opening possession and even the opening two possession started the game. It was like one for five or one for six. And when it was all said and done, he got into a rhythm at one point connected on like 11 of 13.

3:04He finished 18 of 25 passing for 256 yards, one touchdown and an interception. The night though, belonged to Bijon Robinson. 29 carries for a 194 yards and two touchdowns, including a 55 yard run. He also added two catches for 19 yards. Drake London nine catches for a 194 yards, including 168 yard bomb and or catching run, not a bomb was a catching run. And as somebody who had Drake London to go over five and a half receptions, happy about the performance. But as someone who also needed Drake London anytime touchdown for a same game, parlay. We really wanted him to not run out of gas there and get into the end zone speaking of our same game, parlay that we gave out with Brandon Cravitz on yesterday's episode of Better Day. We said Falcons money line was the leg to play Drake London over five and a half receptions was the leg to play and Christian Watson over 68 and a half yards.

4:06Christian Watson finished seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. That is a winner on a same game parlay handed out up on better day dot com in the newsletter. And on the podcast yesterday with myself and Brandon Cravitz plus eight 80 up on Fandall we gave out the three legs, same game parlay yesterday Christian Watson over 68 and a half receiving yards, Drake London over five and a half receptions and the Atlanta Falcons to win the game outright our four leg version, which didn't stand a chance in the first half was we took the anti correlation with the Bijon Robinson under rushing yards. And yeah, dude had a hundred and 94 rushing yards, but a plus eight 80 cash on the three leg baseline, same game parlay that we gave out up on Fandall on yesterday show so happy about that performance as for Jordan love he finishes 28 of 53 passing for three hundred and 12 yards to touchdowns and an interception and once again the Packers had absolutely no running game.

5:07Marsha on Lloyd for carries for 11 yards Caleb Johnson who they recently acquired for carries for six yards just an embarrassing performance. I know that they have injuries on the offensive line they're missing a tackle they're missing the guard and this team already graded out terribly in the trenches. If we look at our trench report from last night we had the Atlanta Falcons with a edge over the green Bay Packers in the trenches overall and it showed last night as obviously Bijon Robinson ran all over the Atlanta at the Green Bay Packers and one of our top rushing mismatches I wish it was as easy as saying Bijon Robinson, but it was that the Atlanta defense was going to stop the Packers running game. And it happened because the Packers had absolutely no running game whatsoever just embarrassing absolutely embarrassing and it starts it's if it wasn't time already to have the conversation it's time to have the conversation about Matt LaFlaur being on the hot seat like let's let's call for what it is.

6:12Disappointing end to last season right they had to lead in the playoffs they blew it and now you look at the Packers going back to last season and then o and three ATS to start this season they have lost now eight straight games against the spread eight straight games against the spread for the green Bay Packers. It's time to start to have the conversation about Matt LaFlaur and whether or not he is on the hot seat which I think he might be and for Jordan love as well like where do we rank him as a quarter back in this league it's been an embarrassing start to the season for the green Bay Packers now one and two and as you would say it's getting late early next week the green Bay Packers will try and bounce back as they take on the tip Bay Buccaneers who could very well be o and three. We'll see what happens after this weekend against the Minnesota Vikings meanwhile the Atlanta Falcons now they have their starting quarterback will take on a tough divisional rival at the New Orleans Saints that one being Monday night football next week and all of a sudden with the pack with the Falcons performing last night and performing as well as they did maybe we shouldn't be embarrassed that we have to watch this team on three consecutive prime time games I'll watch vision Robinson on prime time for the next couple of weeks they got Monday night football next week against the Saints and there and Sunday night football the week after that against the race.

7:41I'm cool I'm cool with watching this version of the Atlanta Falcons I'm also cool with caching as we did last night up on better day dot com and of course our same game parlay that we gave out yesterday on the better day podcast speaking of yesterday we had our livestream the better day football show myself and Steve asic a jay Hoffman was out sick so Michael fiddle joined us to fill in and we went through the board of the NFL sleight right for this Sunday and Monday and I asked fiddle which line jumped out to him the most on this week three slate in the NFL. The one I disagree with the most or the one that I find most actionable because it's very rare that I would outright disagree with the market consensus and an NFL on a Thursday so I'll change the word choice to say most actionable right now. Would be Minnesota Vikings minus one and a half against Tampa Bay this line if as we talk about the quarterback ratings for different teams this was the one spot this week that when Kyler Murray was announced that he's going to take back this starters job.

8:45The first line move was towards Tampa Bay and that is a very rare to see because you normally get. You know the mouth free there's the screen clickers the one who see the alert come in and immediately just go smash Vikings because they're getting their starting quarterback. And they you know the line might move out and ultimately get resisted by the market but it's very rare to see the first move come Tampa off that news. And so I actually think this Vikings defense veteran heavy incredibly well coached is performing way better than we expected we expected them not to be as good as previous years they are still an absolute unit. I do think Kyler Murray is still an upgrade over Carson Wentz even though Wentz's success rate has actually been pretty good. I do think Murray's mobility and I don't really you know the Murray's interception on his first passes of Viking was just a misread of the defensive coverage and the thought he was going against a cover zero so he threw the ball up and it was actually a drop zone.

9:45So I'm not going to take too much off him for for throwing one bad pass and I feel like people are over reacting to that saying he looked terrible in that immediate start. He's had two weeks he's got a great quarterback coach and so ultimately I'm still with the faith the Tampa Bay box buy in on the Minnesota Vikings I think Vikings should probably be a little bit higher than their power rate and then fell. Tampa Bay should probably be a little bit lower than they are and then also getting Kyler back as an adjustment up for the Vikings so Vikings minus one and a half has to be the cheapest this will get between now and Sunday kickoff. I'm going to disagree. OK, I already played Vikings money line I gave that out earlier in the week it is one of our top five mismatches in the trench report the Minnesota Vikings over the Tampa Bay box Tampa has not been able to protect Baker Rayfield and the Vikings pass rush has been very very good so far to start the season. If that was the only handy cap of this game I feel confident about it but the fact that now the offense should improve with Kyler Murray makes me even more confident about the Vikings against the box plus I also think Todd Bolts is getting fired in a couple of weeks.

10:51Go ahead, Fez, what are you going to say? Boy Todd Bolts first gave dude to get fired sure looks good to me. Well, the odds, the odds have completely changed on that because he is the favorite to be the first head coach fired in the NFL. So there's a trend that I don't believe in trends, but I like this trend. If you're own two in the NFL and you're an underdog week three you cover, you know, it's just been very good. And so four teams apply Atlanta Miami. Tampa Bay and the chargers and it makes sense to me and people say all it's because the odds makers over react and they adjust their lines wrong bullshit that's not correct. It's because I mean how much of the odds makers over reacted the Vikings are pick them against Tampa does that look like an overreaction to you. What what really is going on is the desperation the team that's o and two knows their seasons about to go. You know, like down the drain. So everyone is all in week three to try to save the season. So Tampa certainly qualifies. But I also think although I agree with Mr. Fiddle that Murray is better at quarterback.

11:59I don't want a quarterback that just got to concussed on the second like his third play with this new team. I don't think Murray's going to run. I don't think there's going to be any arpeos. I don't think there's going to be any scrambles. He is going to be super careful. The coaching staff is going to be careful with them. Given that I'd rather have once this week not down the road, but this week. Okay, I mean that's fair. That's a fair assessment. And I understand what you're saying with the o and two desperation like we call this the kitchen sink game. I'm curious. Let's see since the start of 2021. How do o and two teams do so. You got to be getting points plus points. You got to be getting points. So if you are o and two in week number three and you're a dog since the start of the 2021 season. 15 and 15 straight up 18 11 and one against the spread. So, but this is a one point line. So I mean, if the line is what do we want to say? Like less than one or less than one?

13:02So I guess we bet Vikings money line and we're fine. That's what and that's what I did is bet Vikings money line here. Okay. If the line is if the lines less than two, it's only happened three times in since 2021 with a one and a half. Yeah, we get Vikings minus one 10. I think Michael, do we get Vikings minus one 10 for our best bet for the best price we see this week. I don't think it'll get there. Let me see what it is. Best in market right now. Yeah, there's a there's a minus one 10 available right now. But most things are are closer to minus 120. So I would want to take the minus 110. I'm thinking this closes a universal minus 120 and it's devagged is like minus 112 and that's a small edge. So I'll be on the Vikings pretty soon here and that'll that'll be my that'll be my first week three play of the show. Plenty more NFL conversation on the better day football show. You guys can catch the replays up on YouTube on the better day YouTube page. You can check us out on Twitter as well.

14:04The whole show is podcasted. So it is on this better day podcast feed. You can go and listen to that pod coming up this weekend. We will have Brandon Travis's prop shop article for all your prop bets free plays for your NFL Sunday. And Macon survived the NFL with a survivor pod being released tomorrow morning. I'm sure they had several entries out with the Tampa Bay Bucks as I was eliminated from circa with the Tampa Bay Bucks last week. We'll see what Dan and Macon have cooked up for their survivor entry for week number three or whatever survivor entries they have left here in whatever pools there in for this week three schedule of the NFL. And then our college football free play article for more guy Jake Novikovic will be out this weekend as well. We'll send out the Saturday morning newsletter tease the college football free plays as well. Speaking of college football Steve Fesick and I talked about the interesting slate of games coming up tomorrow in which we see ranked opponents against each other where we talked about the college football system.

15:09Saturday September 26th to have combat sports most dangerous strikers collide bear knuckle liver pulls on down the gorilla tail goes to war with Cuban powerhouse. Yoel soldier of God Romero plus the bear knuckle middleweight championship of the world is on the line when the rating champ Dave the redneck Mundell defense against undefeated British challenger. Jack the meat liver colon BKFC 94 till verse Romero watch it live only on the zone. Sign up now at the zone dot com. Today's episode is brought to you by Apple ads ads on Apple maps are changing the way local businesses get discovered. Reach customers when it counts right when they turn I'm looking into I'm going there in decision making mode actively searching for businesses like yours and deciding where to go. Customers can easily call you visit and more from the same place they're viewing your ad and all of this happens on Apple maps a privacy first environment that respects customers and helps them discover new places.

16:14Get started with ads on Apple maps today and for a limited time receive 15% credit back on your monthly ads been for a year up to $1,000 per month terms apply. Head to ads dot apple dot com slash maps to get started try business like never before with ads on Apple maps. Kitchen and bathroom professionals know what goes behind the tile matters that's why trade pros trust fiber cement party backer board to keep tile firmly in place resist cracking and help block more. And help block moisture chosen over 40 million kitchens and bathrooms party backer board what the best build on shop now at participating home depot lows and floor into core stores for more information visit James Hardy dot com slash party backer. At QVC fall shopping is more than just checking out it's discovering the brands you love across beauty fashion home and culinary all in one place whether you're getting ready for crisp mornings cozy nights or everyday moments QVC has what you need for the season ahead with brands like Laura Geller philosophy ninja and so many more shop now at QVC dot com.

17:42Alright friends let's transition here let's get into college football because we have some really interesting games on this schedule and a couple of system trends now I always talk about the system in college basketball and in college football and I want to know your take on the four games that qualify here for this Saturday so for those who have not listened over the years we talk about the system and it's simple guys it's fading what the public thinks means something is. This shows his notes here that little number next to the teams name means very little in the betting markets but what it means is the public gets influenced by that little number next to the teams name i'm not talking about the rotation number i'm talking about the AP poll number and so the system in college basketball and in college football is simple whenever you see a lower ranked team which has the larger number.

18:42Next to their name as a favorite over the higher rank team the team that has that smaller lower number next to their name you back the favorite since 2021 if you just took that bigger number the high the lower rank team with the larger number favorite over the higher rank team with the lower number you are 52 29 and one against the spread that is 64.2% ATS your 59 and 23.3. So right up that 72% these teams are winning their games by an average of 7.3 points per game they're covering by an average of three points per game. Scott what is Florida ranked as we have four qualifying games here this week number 21 Florida currently a three and a half point favorite over number four Ole Miss we also have to a little bit of a lesser extent we have number 18.3. Number 18 Michigan as a five and a half point favorite over number 17 Iowa we have number 20 Oregon as a three point favorite over number 12 USC and we have number 24 Mississippi state as a six point favorite over number 19 Missouri.

20:03So as a five point favorite over number 19 Michigan as a five point favorite over number 19 Michigan as a five point favorite over number 19.3. Game 342 Florida I don't like laying my three and a half set up Florida minus 160 go go we are petting Florida on the money line I think Florida is going to kill Ole Miss so I follow endorsement one more no lock but I think it's more likely Oregon's going to get the ball to start the second half than the first half. So I think Oregon third quarter would probably be the investment I would make Oregon's the better team they'll you see might take the lead but Oregon third quarter. I think Oregon having that kind of like. Scrimmage game last week as like a get right scenario for them definitely helps them out because a lot of people had talked about how the offense looks a little discombobulated you know because Stein left and they have a new offensive coordinator and I think having that game to kind of get right against Portland state definitely helped out the Oregon.

21:11So they have sucked the first two weeks versus expectation yeah speaking of that Florida game against Ole Miss people want to know is the let down spot real for Ole Miss and the answer is yes. Says since 2021 top 25 team that wins outright as an underdog against another top 25 team and then the following week is an underdog again in a top 25 matchup. 4 and 21 straight up 6 and 19 against the spread failing to cover by 11.3 points per game when those teams are in a way dog like Ole Miss is 1 and 8 straight up 2 and 7 against the spread failing to cover by 12.1 points per game the numbers tell us the let down situation is absolutely real. Especially on the road so think about this it makes a lot of sense if you're back home yeah you're hung over in your blue blood alcohol point 0 to you know on on Monday morning by by the way the refrigerator used to play for the bears when he was a clums and they interviewed him and they said is a true William that you drank 32 beers after a victory against South Carolina and his response was well that's not the right thing to do.

22:38That was a big win for our team. No denial whatsoever. But at least when you're home you're in a home underdog situation the crowd is all juiced up and crazed when you go on the road the hangover is real somebody get me an IV absolutely. What do you think about also how much the market has changed from the early preseason game of the year lines to where we are here now like how much stock do you put into the where the market originally thought these teams were going to be versus where the market thinks they are right now and I'll give credit. Jared Smith posted this on Twitter looking at the South points game of the year lines that they put up and Texas was a six and a half point favorite over Tennessee on the game of the year lines now Texas is a five and a half point favorite Oregon conversely was a six point favorite against USC now there are three point favorite Georgia was a nine and a half point favorite over Oklahoma now they're laying 13 and a half to 14 and LSU was a two and a half point favorite over Texas A&M now they're laying eight and a half.

23:48What you're take on game of the year lines in the summer versus where we are now in market. I think it all depends right I think A&M you could downgrade 11 points they're they're no good and we thought they would be good versus you know there's just over reactions like the Michigan bad game week one there was an over reaction like before they played Oklahoma but forget those games of the year let's go to the high profile game this what I'm going to bet this one 373 374 what would you do. What would you mass have been at Sacramento State if the South point had put a line up on that game before the season started I would think sex state maybe minus nine something like that right and now that's not the right state who isn't any good at all is catching for against for an half against you mass and they're not any good either I refuse to believe you mass is good are you sure because let listen I've watched I've watched some of you mass okay first off I did watch the embarrassment that you know my

24:51Rutgers caught nights suffered in week number one but then I saw some highlights of what you mass is doing offensively and what they did in the next couple of games. This quarterback is legit feds I mean this kid can play and I think that when you look at pop Watson and what he brings to this team it's kind of like they found the diamond in the rough like they recruited a kid that they got that you know they stole away from other people and I definitely think we have to erase our priors on you mass that's how you go from a win list team to a three and O team is you get a quarterback that can run and that could make guys miss and that makes your offense looks so much better because of the skill set that he has. So I'm going to do Alan Boston 101 so Alan says there's certain programs just can't improve and go to a certain level alright like they'll say that though this team can't be a top 10 team you mass can't be laying four and a half and a late start time on the West coast and Sacramento I don't care how bad Sacramento state is and they're bad so maybe I'll be right maybe I'll be wrong

25:56Sacramento state is going to win this game out right there was my college football conversation with Steve Fesick again from the better day football show yesterday you can go listen to the entire show right here on this better day podcast feed make sure you catch us live every Thursday 2pm eastern time streaming on YouTube and on Twitter AJ Hoffman will hopefully be on the mend and will rejoin us next Thursday as he is our third man and we definitely miss them even though we appreciate Michael fiddle filling in this past week AJ was definitely missed. Wanted to make some announcements of what's coming to better day dot com and the better day mobile app up live right now our brand new NHL HQ that's right our NHL headquarters is live now up on better day dot com and the mobile app just like our NFL HQ and our college football HQ the NHL HQ is your one stop shop for NHL handicapping we have a matchup view with the schedule where you can click on a game you get the full matchup card which includes goals for per game goals against per game power play percentage penalty kill percentage 5v5 shot attempt share 5v5 shots on goal share shots on goal per game shots allowed on goal per game we have a tab for shots on goal props where you can look at the players and their hit rates compared to what they're opponent allows during the course of a season as well as our first period database which includes all of your relevant information to bet on the first day

27:25in the NHL straight up records over on the records bulk teams to score records goal in first 10 your gift bets goal in first 10 records and goalie records you can track every goalie's performance in the first period we have it split by home and away you can see the goals against average in the first period their percentage in the first period every info you need to bet on the NHL first periods is in our NHL first period database inside the better day NHL HQ season starts next week no better time to jump on board and become a better day insider get full access to all of our databases and HQs and you could get all of our picks by becoming a better day premium member as well we did give out a 50% promo coupon during the football show yesterday I will include it in the newsletter here this morning so anybody that wants half off their first month of better day premium you can use the promo code football show so better day dot com slash football show and that'll give you that 50% off coupon for new members only once again you can listen to the better day football show yesterday with myself Steve Fesick and Michael fiddle be on the lookout for our weekend newsletter our survivor pod and free place posted for both college football and the NFL

28:43prop shop I'm Scott side and Burke here's hoping you make today and every day a better day Saturday September 26th to have combat sports most dangerous strikers collide bear knuckle liver pulls on down the gorilla tail goes to war with Cuban powerhouse you'll soldier of God Romero plus the bear knuckle middleweight championship of the world is on the line when the rating champ Dave the redneck Mundell defense against undefeated British challenger jack the meat cleaver colon BKFC 94 till verse Romero watch it live only on the zone sign up now at the zone dot com if you like the show please take a moment to rate review and subscribe it really does help the show to grow thank you for listening