Fade Recency Bias

0:00I started or not in 2013 and we make bike apparel. The best part of Shopify for me is our ability to run the business as essentially non-technical people. We're able to admin everything on the back end, front end, and sell things online easily. If Shopify were a bike accessory, I think it would actually be the bicycle. It's the thing that you do the thing on. We run the business on Shopify. Start your free trial on Shopify.com. Hey, it's Kelly Rowland. You may not know this, but I have eczema. So I get how it can steal your time. But why let eczema take over when you can talk to your doctor about ebglyce? Ebglyce, lubricism app, LBKZ. A 250-mg per 2-mg leader injection is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older, who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kg with moderate to severe eczema. Also called a topic dermatitis that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin, or topicals, or who cannot use topical therapies.

1:01Ebglyce can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you are allergic to ebglyce. A allergic reaction can occur that can be severe. Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have newer, worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with ebglyce. Before starting ebglyce, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Paid partnership with Lili. Respect your time. Ask your doctor about ebglyce and visit ebglyce.com or call 1-800-LiliRx or 1-800-545. 5-9-79. 6-9-13. 7-8-18. Look for these better days. It is Wednesday.

2:01September 16th. I'm Scott Seidenberg. Here's what you need to know to make today a better day. Market is on the move as we approach NFL Week No. 2. In college football, Week No. 3, how about some overreactions and some recent-see-bias fates? David Bairman joins me on this episode of Better Day, presented by Fando and David Bairman. I would love to. It was awesome. It all came together. Sometimes you just have those weeks where every ball bounces your way. I was telling you off air. It started Saturday night. I had a great start to the season with the Wednesday under the NFL, the Thursday under the

3:06NFL. We get the Saturday. I hit a couple Saturday morning. I had the Oregon loss where I had an Oregon team total over that loss. I'm like, I had still up money. Then Texas looked like they were going to throw it all out the window with I was all in on Texas. I had to come back. Not only was I in on Texas Scott, but I told everybody, don't lay the one and a half. Take the money line. Don't throw yourself. They go ahead and win like that. That put me in an eight and one Saturday. Put the ice gun on the cake. Then Sunday started out hot. What foreign won in my props early on? Hit another under early in the action. It was all going to come down to the late afternoon on Sunday. I had dolphins raiders under and I had the Vikings. If you look at how those two games played out, it looked like I was dead in the water. I'm both of them. Dolphins and raiders didn't score. It'll last 23 minutes of the game and behold the minutes of the Vikings came back. Then I capped it off last night with an under in the chiefs game like Patrick Mahomes kneeling there and field gold territory. It was just an awesome weekend. I'm glad I could help the better day people went out there nine and one on the site, 17,

4:10two over all. It's all in the news. They're all documented. It's not just made up numbers. The Arle in there was a fun weekend. And people have seen it. A whole bunch of subs this week at baremanbets.com. So it's good to see. Absolutely. Love it. David Bareman's official record up on better day.com 11 and five since he began with us. Seven and one in the NFL. So you can get David Bareman's select picks up on better day.com. Of course, subscribe to the newsletter at baremanbets.com. I want to talk about some over reactions to week number one. I want to talk about maybe fading some recency bias. Not just in the NFL, but in college football as well. You mentioned the chiefs game. And I mean, I had the Broncos multiple ways. I've never seen tackling that bad. I gave out all the numbers in yesterday's newsletter about how historically bad the tackling was for the Denver Broncos. I mean, we're talking about all time records that they set with the amount of mistakled and the amount of yardage that they gave up after the mistakles.

5:12But let's move forward. You know, the NFL, we always say, David, is a week. Two week sport. And oftentimes, and this is where I have found my best betting success is fading the recency bias that people carry from one week to the other because the NFL truly is a week to week sport and things change from one Sunday to the next Sunday. Denver right now upon Fandall, two and a half point home favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, at home up on Fandall, Sunday night football, six and a half point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. What do you think about where the market has both of those teams after what we saw on Monday night football? I'll start with the Chiefs. I think it is a little bit of a reaction, but there are public teams to begin with. I actually was not impressed by the Chiefs last night. I know the narrative is going to be new look offense, can of Walker, 200 yards rushing. The passing game looked gross. All right. The passing game was awful last night across the board.

6:13There was a point where Patrick Mahomes was two of 12 passing in the first half before he completed a few later. He had zero completions over the 10 yard mark. The touchdown that he had to Rashid Rice was, you had mentioned the Broncos tackling. It looked like my seventh grade sons team out there trying to tackle Rice. 31 to 10 looked bad. Keep in mind that was a 14, seven game and half time. And it looked for a while at the only offense the Chiefs were going to have was either Walker off the left side or Mahomes scrambling around. That's not sustainable. So whereas I came into the season somewhat high on the Chiefs because I thought the acquisition of Kenneth Walker was going to get them back to where they needed to go. They've never had a guy like Ken Walker back there. It's been a long time since they've had someone who actually rushed for 175 yards. That said, I actually came at it at game less confident in the Chiefs because their passing it was so brutal. Now the Broncos have a good defense when they tackle that pass rush got to Mahomes,

7:15force Mahomes, the scramble a bunch. I just think you're going to see a whole lot of teams start stacking that box against Walker and saying, listen, we're not going to let you beat us. Let's actually see if your receivers can get open. Let's see if the 97 yard, 97 year old Travis Kelsey can actually get open because if you look at that game, that game came down to really bad tackling on the Rice touchdown. The other touchdown was when Travis Kelsey somehow had a 60 yard catch with more bad tackling. The 60 yard touchdown from Walker. It all happened in one game and that's three of your four touchdowns. The fourth one was the first one which was often interception at the beginning of the game. What did the Chiefs actually show? I wasn't that impressed. The six and a half is a big number for a Colts team that can score. Now the Colts didn't play very well. Call it what it was. They didn't play well with the Ravens. They did score 23 points though. The other problem was they couldn't stop what seems to be the world's greatest offense in the world in the Baltimore Ravens. That said, I like the six and a half there.

8:17I think that's an overreaction. I'm going to be playing the Colts, hopefully, and it gets the seven. It probably won't as far as the Broncos. I'm not sure the Broncos can play any worse than they did and it was still a 14-7 game into the third quarter. They play a really good Jaguar. Now, I think people are sleeping on the Jaguars. I think Trevor Lawrence is finally showing the Trevor Lawrence that we expected when he was the number one pick. It took a while. Some of the highlights I saw, I thought he didn't accept the game that said they're playing the Browns. That's a tough line. It's two and a half. It's probably lower than it should be based on the overreaction. It's still tough to fade the Jaguars right now. That's my thought process is that this line is suppressed because of how bad the Denver Broncos looked. I don't know if it's this week that Sean Payton retakes overplay calling responsibilities or next week, but I would imagine that the public wants nothing to do with Denver Broncos and everything to do with Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Broncos

9:20are the short play. That's where I am here on this game. Any other reactions from week one Sunday that you want to either fade or you want to get behind going into week number two. I think in week two, Scott, you had hit off the bat. It's a week to week thing. Week two historically has been my favorite week to bet because of the week one over reactions. Whereas I think the line is where it should be. I'm looking at what the public is going to deem a overrated Rams team based on a one game sample size over in Australia where they screw up the whole time thing versus a tough 49ers team hosting after a long layoff, a giants team that now everybody after one night against an awful Dallas defense. Everybody thinks John Harbaugh and the New York Giants have won the Super Bowl. Trust me, I know I was there. I was at the game. I drove home and it's the rare time you drive home and you hear positive things being said on the radio about the Giants. We'll see to Giants post game shows leading that parking lot.

10:21I do it at least twice a year and it's usually a funeral on listening to. Harbaugh is different for once, especially against Dallas listening to the optimism but slow down a little bit with the New York football Giants. Do I think they're better than teams maybe have given them credit for it? Sure, Harbaugh instills a new philosophy they ran the hell out of the ball. That was one of the worst defensive performances we've seen in a long time from Dallas. And Dallas already had a big bad defense. I read a stat this morning that said and I quote, if I can find it, sorry, give me one second. It was worse based on EPA per drive. The Cowboys had the worst defensive performance by any team in week one. It was worse than all but one of their defensive performances last year and last year they had one of the worst defenses in the world. So Cowboys were awful. But Rams numbers also sitting at six and a half.

11:23If you had told me seven days ago that I would be able to get the Rams at home laying six and a half first in New York Giants, I would have said thank you very, very much. Where's the red ribbon? Not saying the lines off. I'm saying that if week one games were not played, I don't think that's a six and a half point spread. And I think the Rams can easily come home with 10 days off, realize what they screwed up out in San Francisco. Giants lay in on Sunday and that can easily be a 24 10 type game. Yeah. Yeah. I think let's check the market because I believe we are at sevens now pretty much across the board. So make sense, David. And this I would jump on the sevens before you're they're gone on the sevens and the seven and a halfs show up. I do think that you're on to something with the the Rams and a bounce back spot against everybody's biggest overreaction on the positive side, the New York football Giants. What about the overreactions maybe on the negative side?

12:24You know, the Cleveland grounds looked as bad as anybody can look in week number one and everyone's ready to say that they made a mistake. Todd Munkin is one and done as a head coach. The Sean Watson should not be the quarterback. Of course, Shadour Sanders should be the quarterback. They're facing a Tampa Bay Bucks team that gave the football away essentially every possession. So I don't know how to evaluate Tampa either because if you look at, you know, what happened in that game, they were still within one score. Despite the fact that they turned the football over all the time. But should they be eight and a half point favorites here over the Cleveland Browns? That's the same line as the Jacksonville Jaguars were over the Browns. And I don't think anybody's arguing that the Jaguars are better than the Tampa Bay Bucks. Yeah, I don't think you can lay the eight and a half there, but no one's going to be surprised if the Bucks do cover that one. The Browns are that bad. But the Bucks turn over the ball way too many times to be eight and a half point favorites. And if that's the same line as the Jags, the Jags went out there and crushed the Browns, then the Browns are bad.

13:25I think they're going to do a study 10 years from now, maybe a 30 for 30 on how the Sean Watson was the starting quarterback of the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, other than the simply simple fact that you and I hit this on the head over the summer, we said there's 250 million reasons why because he's getting paid. Nope. If they answer butts, you heard some of the post game stuff that he's like, listen, you're going to fire Watts and you got to fire me. We all played bad. They're not even considering a quarterback change. Monkin has said this is not a week to week thing. He is our starting quarterback. The Sean Watson is awful. Now I don't know if Shadour Sanders is any better. I don't think we're going to find out. The ownership is just not going to allow the Sean Watson to get paid $200 million and not be the starting quarterback. I don't know if they got to be 0 and 9 or 0 and 10 or if he's got a fake an injury. That is a bad football team. I didn't like the munk and higher from the beginning. I didn't think that was the right man for the job. Probably will be a one and done. That said, I can't cautiously give out minus eight and a half with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14:27the way they're defense play and the way they turn over the ball. Now if you said, hey, final score was 31, 10 bucks. I'd be like, yeah, that makes sense. I would lay it before I took it. What I am going to do is I'm going to play them in survivor pools, what I'm going to do. For all those who have survivors left, I'll be taking the Tampa Bay Bucks because you either take Tampa, you take San Francisco because the Bucks and the dolphins are as bad as advertised. Sorry, the Browns and the dolphins are as bad as advertised. Duffins, I mean, that roster is so, so bad. Hey, it's Kelly Rowland. You may not know this, but I have Exema. So I get how it can steal your time. But why let Exema take over when you can talk to your doctor about Epglyce? Epglyce, lubricism app, LBKZ, a 250 milligram per 2 milliliter injection is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older, who weigh at least 88 pounds or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe Exema. Also called a topic dermatitis that is not well controlled with prescription therapies

15:27used on the skin or topicals or who cannot use topical therapies. Epglyce can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you are allergic to Epglyce. A allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. I problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have newer, worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with Epglyce. Before starting Epglyce, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Paid partnership with Lili. Respect your time. Ask your doctor about Epglyce and visit Epglyce.com or call 1-800-LiliRX or 1-800-545. 5-9-7-9.

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18:337 to Louisiana. Let's move into college football David as we talk about some over reactions and some interesting games. I was looking at Friday schedule because it's a really good schedule. First off, you have that Houston Texas Tech game that's going to be awesome. We can talk about a over reaction to the last couple of weeks here, but let's talk about Miami going to wake forest. All right, for a Friday night game in Winston Salem, where we know that crowd is going to be pretty electric. Last season, Darian Mensa through for 268 yards and two touchdowns against wake forest. Do you think there's something to wake having seen Mensa before and maybe that gives them an advantage at home here on a Friday night? I think it does. And obviously you want to be careful fading a team like Miami who has that explosive offense that they do and they're talented as talented as anybody in the country. That said, they have a head coach that is known to lose games like this.

19:34Now, I'm not calling for the loss, but Mario Crystal ball has lost games exactly like this where you're on the road as a big favor and everybody thinks you're the best things in sliced bread. And you go play a team that that is good enough to beat you and then you play right into their hands. I'm not calling for the wake forest upset. Yeah. But I do think with them having been familiar with Mensa who obviously played last year with Duke that there is the element of it's a rare team that has seen him who has a coach that's coming back to the scene him. And you are at home at night on a Friday night on ESPN. I don't wake up every day thinking, boy, I want to fade to Miami Hurricanes. I think they can score 21 points before you blink. But if you're going to, this is a spot. This is I would have taken wake forest before I would have taken Stanford. I know a lot of people like Stanford. They went cross country and beat the hell out of Stanford. It was also the first game of the season. They had all season that prepared for it. What have they done since they played in FCS school and beat him 77 to seven. Miami should win this game and they should win this game comfortably.

20:37But I don't mind the play, especially if he can get a 21 out there somewhere or pay for a 21 because this could be a game that wake forest hangs around late on a Friday night and winds up losing by 13 or 14 that wouldn't surprise me at all. Certainly would want to storm the field on a Friday night there and win some Salem. What do you think about number 22 Houston at number 13 Texas Tech. Texas Tech up on Fandall seven and a half point road favorite. Tech has not covered in either their first two games. They barely, barely got by Oregon State last week before and week one, they should have blown out Abelene Christian and only beat them by 23. So it's an interesting start to the season. I was on Oregon State last week. I had them because I thought it was a look ahead spot and plus going to Corvallis is a tough thing to do, especially when you have a short week with a team like Houston coming up. Houston, meanwhile, an easy game last week, 77 to six. And in the week before that, they handled Oregon State the same opponent, 33 to 20.

21:41You taking the points here with Houston or are you back in the home favorite? I'm taking Houston. This one is going to be one of my plays. I'll give it out with the bedding with their newsletters. I'll have it on better day. I've been on Houston since the summer. I took them as a long shot to make the playoff and win the big 12. I have a long ticket on the do so simply because they have really good returning players. They returned. I believe three fits of their offensive line. I was on them week one against Oregon State, which they didn't cover, but they didn't discover because they threw a pick in the end zone. They jumped off sides on a punt when it was fourth and three, which allowed Oregon State to go score. So they did things that in a 13 point win, when you're laying 18 and a half, you should have covered that if if Wegman doesn't throw a pick in the end zone and no jump off sides on fourth down. Connor Wegman is really, really good. He looked awesome last week. I like this Houston team. I don't know if they're going to win the big 12. Even if they have any hopes of winning the big 12, they have to compete versus Texas

22:42Tech this week. Seven and a half is a big number for a really good Houston offense under Wegman, which they made mistakes versus Oregon State. It was also a game, Scott, that people forget was delayed at halftime due to weather. So you come out from the half and it's a little different when you have a one hour halftime that's supposed to a 20 hour or 20 minute halftime. I ended up getting it done versus Oregon State and then absolutely rolled last week in a walkthrough. I think they keep it close. I think they can pull the upset. I like Houston plus the points. It will be one of my plays. Texas Tech has not looked impressive at all in either game. As you mentioned, they have not covered in either game. If you look at the one common opponent, the Oregon State beavers, Houston played much better against them than Texas Tech did. Houston should have covered in that game. Should have could have what is. It was a loss I had. Again, when you throw picks in the end zone and you miss field goals and you jump off sides on 4,000 that hurts you. They still won the game by 13 points. So I'm going to be taking Houston plus the 7 and a half here.

23:43I like it. I like it a lot. One final question in college football. What's your level of concern for the Oregon ducks and where do they finish this season? I think the, obviously with this being a 12 team playoff, nobody is out of it. It's why I rooted against the 12 team playoff. That's why I don't want 24 36 or 110, whatever they want to put in the playoff. I want these games to matter. I think Oregon will bounce back and win some games and potentially make the playoff. But what they showed through the first two weeks was absolutely atrocious. And if they don't get it right and I know this week they're playing Portland State of the blind, you got a tough match up in LA next week at USC on NBC. That's a tough match up. So whatever they got to figure out this week at home versus Portland State, they better figure out because the season goes south if you lose in LA to USC. You still got to have a state in Michigan on the schedule. I think they figured out and I think they'll go into Southern California and put up a fight

24:46versus USC. But that's not a game that I think people circled a few weeks ago. No, for sure. I don't know what to make of this team right now, but I still think it's too early. Like we've seen teams slip up early in the season and then all of a sudden, you know, 10 straight wins later and we're like, oh, yeah, they're in the conference championship game. It makes sense. Right? We saw Notre Dame lose to Northern Illinois. It, right? It really happens. It happens, right? Like, bed starts happen to a season. We'll see if the Oregon ducks can bounce back. What do you have this week coming up on the betting with Barron podcast? Baby Baron podcast. We will have Yahoo Sports writer and on air talent Frank Schwab on tomorrow to break down the NFL week two slate. We're going to talk Sunday night football Monday night football and of course the rest of the week two NFL slate will have the newsletter out shortly for Wednesday, which will have a futures portfolio update as well as some updates on some line moves. Then on Friday at BaronBets.com, you will get my full full NFL and college football slate

25:50on Friday. That's the same slate that you said earlier today went 17 and two. It was 15 and two on Saturday and Sunday and then I hit the Wednesday and Thursday games. 17 and two go to BaronBets.com. It's only $99 to the year, $99.99 a month. Scott, it's well worth your time. It would have already paid the season. I love it. Check them out. BaronBets.com, the betting with bareman newsletter. Oh, before I let you go, since you had such a monster week, I assume you went five and oh in the betting with bareman splash contest. Four and one in the betting with bareman splash contest because I decided for some reason that will haunt me till the end of time I decided to take the Tennessee Titans over the Jets. Remember, it's sides and totals and I would have loved to have thrown one of my props in there, but my nine and one record for the NFL included four props, which means that number five games and instead of taking Wednesdays, New England Seattle game, I threw the

26:50Tennessee one in there. Yes, that is the loss that we're talking about and I had it in the betting with bareman splash contest or I would have gone five and oh, but four and one's a good start. It's a very good start to contest. It's a very good start because I'm looking at the contestants right now, 94 total contest entries and only two people went five and oh. So yeah, one of them was someone I convinced to get in. I convinced them to get in last minute and he went five and oh. There you go. Congratulations. Remember, the side bet is still on betting with bareman members versus better day members. The highest finisher that is not a member of the other site will get a full year complimentary subscription. So let's earn those bragging rights and earn those subscriptions for David bareman. I'm Scott Saddenberg. Here's hoping to make today and every day a better day. Hey, forget something. Relax. You're taking grocery outlet home with you.

27:51It's right there in your phone. Shop Instacart or DoorDash with the same grade item prices as in store. So if you forgot the milk, you didn't really forget the milk. Grocery outlet. Deals delivered Saturday, September 26th, two of combat sports most dangerous strikers collide. Bare knuckle. Liverpool's own down in the gorilla till goes to war with Cuban powerhouse. Yoel soldier of God Romero plus the bare knuckle middleweight championship of the world is on the line when the rating champ Dave the redneck Mundell defends against undefeated British challenger Jack the meat pleaver colon BKFC 94 till verse Romero. Watch it live only on the zone. Sign up now at the zone dot com. Hey, it's Kelly rolling. You may not know this, but I have XM. So I get how it can steal your time. But why let XM take over when you can talk to your doctor about epglyce? Epglyce, lubricism ab LBKZ, a 250 milligram per 2 milliliter injection is a prescription medicine used to treat adults and children 12 years of age and older, who weigh at least 88 pounds

28:55or 40 kilograms with moderate to severe axima. Also called a topic dermatitis that is not well controlled with prescription therapies used on the skin or topicals or who cannot use topical therapies. Epglyce can be used with or without topical corticosteroids. Don't use if you are allergic to epglyce. A allergic reactions can occur that can be severe. I problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have newer, worsening eye problems. You should not receive a live vaccine when treated with epglyce. Before starting epglyce, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Paid partnership with Lily. Respect your time. Ask your doctor about epglyce and visit epglyce.com or call 1-800-LilyRX or 1-800-545-5979. If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening.