Fantasy Football Week 1: Key Questions for Every Matchup | Rankings, Breakouts & Concerns (Ep. 2187)

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana. Jeremy Cole, Hank Paschek McDonald. And we're the hosts of the artist on artist on artist podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast, where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you get the almost here. The eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artist on artist on artist every Thursday on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello everybody, welcome into the fantasy pro's football podcast. I'm Ryan Warmoor and I joined as I will be every Friday morning. I am so excited we are here in season. My path fits Morris and Derek Brown. Guys we did sort of our season long key questions episodes. They get us ready to go for this episode.

1:01We're going to do every weekend season. But this is really the fun stuff I love talking through all the games with you guys every single week. We have two fewer games. I guess one fewer game than usual because we usually do have a Thursday game. Because we have gotten a couple of games already this week. A Wednesday and a Thursday game to kick things off. Fits. We're going to dive right in just because we have a lot of games to get to and not that much time to get through them. But for those games we have seen, do you have like any sort of early takeaways? It can be from the injury riddled game one. I guess there was injuries in game two. But really only one team has shown up for fantasy managers so far. How are you feeling after those first two games? Yeah, I guess not totally shocked. The defenses are ahead of the offenses at this early stage in week ones with a pre-three week pre-season. Well, at least defenses ahead of the offenses in three out of four cases. The 49ers look pretty sharp for the most part. Yeah, and just usage was a little wonky in week one in some cases, especially in the Australian game.

2:03I don't think people, CMC investors should be panicking that Kaelin Black had more carries than Christian McCaffrey. Like Christian McCaffrey was dealing with some lower body tightness in the pre-season. And I just don't think even though Kyle Shanahan is usually happy to give CMC 25 touches. I don't think he wanted to do that in Australia with the unusual circumstances of that game. Yeah, D-Broken. Can you really take anything away from this game? I mean, even negative or positive. To me, it feels like it's just we're going to look back on this regardless of what happens the rest of the season and say, Hey, just chalk it up to like travel weirdness. But having said that, I do think there is a chance that the Niners are just like the team that we were all over looking this summer because everybody likes Seattle and Los Angeles so much. And they actually are. This was an announcement that they're really good. What do you think is more likely that we're taking nothing away from this game or that the Niners are actually going to be pretty good darn good this season? I think the biggest takeaway that we had all off season is still the biggest takeaway for the 49ers.

3:05Their health is going to determine their season. Can they stay healthy if they could stay healthy? They're still one of the talented most talented rosters in the NFL. And for everybody's off season shade boys Mike Evans doesn't look washed at all. And now he's with it off. It's a play collar that's going to move him around the freaking formation and not asking to just win versus on the perimeter. That was fantastic to see. But to Fitsie's point also about Christian McCaffrey. I mean, guys like yeah, like he didn't play the 90% plus snaps dude still got freaking eight targets 15 opportunities. And unless people were watching a different game than I was watching, he looked really explosive in that game. So a lot of really good takeaways for Christian McCaffrey and I also give a shout out to Devo Samuel looking slim trim and explosive back with the 49ers jersey on his back. Man, looking good. I was going to say he had almost an identical stat line to Mike Evans Evan six for 49 and a touchdown. Devo six for 48 and a touchdown. So a couple of L.D. and a 12 year old.

4:05Very tough in there. Yes in the carry as well. Just very quickly like 20 seconds on Drake May. What is your guys' concern level from that game? Just for fantasy purposes. I'm not saying it's like a bad quarterback or whatever. But if you know AJ Brown missing at least a month, him throwing three interceptions. It was against a really, really good defense. Debro at any concern level whatsoever. No, I'm not concerned. It felt like very much where most of the game he was taken with the defense was given him. He went yolo mode at the very end of it. It felt like he had to try to win it by himself. Same thing he was doing in the Super Bowl. If they put Romeo dobs into the Stefan digs light roll. I think the Patriots can keep this ship afloat until AJ Brown is back. Fits any just quick reaction to Drake May is down game. Seattle's got a great defense and a great defensive mastermind in Mike McDonald's. And Drake made it and play well, but he will have better games. Yep. All right. So we're going to go into the rest of our Friday show. We're going to go through game by game here sort of in schedule order.

5:05And we're going to talk about one key question from every matchup. So it won't hit every single team, but it will hit every single matchup. And a lot of the questions will hit both teams. We'll get through as much as we can here on this show every week. Reminder for everybody all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tears throughout every week in terms of your start to decisions can be found at fantasy pros. Slash rankings game number one guys bears at panthers key question here. I know we have question marks about the Carolina offense, but is Teteromic milling a bit under ranks by week one consensus at wide receiver 17 when he has a matchup against what we expect to be one of the worst defenses in football fits. You have talked a lot about this bears defense on shows the summer. So I'll start with you is Teteromic milling a little bit under ranked at wide receiver 17 by consensus. Yeah, the bears defense is going to be really bad. And I think even bears fans here in Chicago. I'm of course not among them. I'm a packers fans, but bears bears fans have no illusions about their defense like it's going to be open season on the Chicago bears.

6:09They're going to play in a ton of shootouts because their offense is really good. Their defense is really bad and one of their bright spots on defenses, Jalen Johnson, really good cornerback. Although, you know, he hasn't been fully healthy recently when he's in the game. He hasn't always been a tip top cornerback, but I think he's going to get some FaceTime with Teteromic milling in this game. But still it's really hard for any cornerback to hold up in coverage and for zone coverage is to keep their shape when the pass rush can't get home. And lack of pass rush is just this glaring problem for the bears. So I think this is a really favorable matchup for Macmillan who I think is a chance to like ascend into the. You know, if not the top tier with the Jamar chase, Pukin, Akua category, at least like the CD lamb George Pickens category of wide receivers. I mean, the guy had a thousand yards as a rookie catching passes from a below average quarterback. And he did it as an early declare rookie. So yeah, I'm I'm pro tat and I've got him.

7:13I think you be or a wide receiver 12 this week. What's going to say that the consensus has updated since I put together the sheet. He has moved up only by one spot. So he's no longer wide receiver 17. His wide receiver 16 still feels a little low, especially compared to Fizz's ranking. But I wanted to mention for transparency there that he is he has moved up a little bit already just earlier this week. Debrot, where you add on Teteromic milling again, really good player questionable environment, but a great matchup to have going up against his defense. So with all those factors combined, where's your ranked for you? I think it's a fantastic player. My problem with Ted has not been a tech problem. It's been the question of a quarterback play is the matchup fantastic. Yes. The problem is I still have questions about what is the passing volume going to be now. Now maybe the Chicago Bears force the Carolina Panthers and they get out to an early lead to force Bryce Jung to chuck it. It's a fantastic matchup as we've all kind of alluded to here for Teteromic milling. Also on a coverage perspective because but week 17 on Chicago leaned into single high 58% of their snaps on the defensive side.

8:15Ted versus single high 26 target for run rate 2.06 yards per out run last year against single high. So that's awesome. I just don't know what the target ceiling looks like for Ted week one. So if the game script goes favorable for Carolina to throw the ball more than maybe I'm expecting. Can he be a wider see for one this week? Yeah, it's definitely possible. I do have Ted right now. I'm in with consensus. I've got him at wider see for 17. So I think the rankings appropriate based off the target volume. I'm expecting but can he outplay it? Absolutely. But I also to the positive Ted side. This is also a fantastic matchup for Jalen coaker. I don't want that to get lost either because Kyla Gordon's not playing in this game. He's facing the same garbage secondary and week one. And if you look at when both these guys were healthy and weeks 13 through 19 including the playoffs. Target shares weren't that different boys. So I think that both these guys can eat. Where's coaker ranks for you, Deepa? Oh, coaker, coaker, coaker. Where are you at?

9:16I will have him comfortably probably inside my top like 40 wider seevers. I'm still looking for him in my ranks right now. I've got my wider see for 42 but honestly, I've still got to go through ranks and stuff like that. Probably he's going to be like a back in like low in wider see for three high and four for me probably like wider see for high third like low 30s. It fits wider see for 45 for coaker and consensus to high two loaches, right? I've got 49 no major. She's with that ranking. I'm kind of in line. I just I don't think we're going to see anything like Teteromic Millen and Jalen coaker and not going to have anything close to the same target volume this year though that I would push back on that in a big way last year. No, they did late last year but like that's not that's a small sample size. We are not going to see that over the long haul. They're just not in the same class of player deep, bro. Okay. All right. We'll see how it works out. Fancy by the way, Teteromic Millen plus 1100 plus 1200, depending when you look for a first touchdown score.

10:20If you like him to have a big game and if I kind of think Caroline might come out and say like, Hey, he didn't get enough touchdowns last year. Let's really prioritize this early this year. I think I might be worth a sprinkle. Let's go to the next game here. Bucks at Bengals. This game has the highest total on the week's slate the only game over 50 with high scoring expectations. Give me one player each that you are actually lower than consensus on. We think this is going to be a high scoring game. Let's see who we're maybe fading a little bit in this one. Debro, I'll start with you. If DJ Turner plays in this game, I am lower on a mecca Buka and right now it is up in the air if he plays or not. He popped up with a hamstring injury in the middle of the week. Still managed to limited practice. We got to see what the practice reports look like for the rest of the week and what his game designation is. But if DJ Turner is active in this game, I am extremely worried about a mecca Buka because if you look at DJ Turner, maybe he was one of the best shadow corners of the entire freaking NFL last year. He shadow DK mecca twice, Justin Jefferson once Romeo dobs, a flowers twice. Yeah, you could throw Gabe Davis in there. He followed each one of those guys on 60% of the routes in those matchups only allowed one receiving touchdown and only Justin Jefferson surpass 70 receiving arts in his coverage.

11:32Even if you zoom out from 100 foot view, this is not a good coverage match up for a mecca Buka when he was at the height of his powers last year weeks one through five. And this goes back to again single high coverage since now to use this at 57% of the defensive snaps last year. Weeks one through five mecca Buka while he was crushing opposing defenses versus single high in that stretch 1.36 yards per route run. So if Turner is active since he rolls back the single high of last year, I am very worried about a mecca Buka and I would be very consistent and being a tad below consensus walking into this game this week. But if to the flip side of this, if Turner is out, I will be at least at consensus with that Buka despite the coverage matchup. Okay, Debra, I just want to ask because we got a lot of questions on the livestream we did yesterday about Christian Watson and Parker Washington. Those three guys like Buka Washington and Watson are all within four spots of each other in consensus. Do you like a Buka better than those guys are worse or is it just entirely dependent on DJ Turner?

12:34What Watson and Washington over them over a Buka even a turner is out. Okay, Fitz, what is a player in this matchup that you are fading? Who is a guy that you're looking at that you maybe are a little lower than consensus on Chris Godwin. I'm two spots below ECR on him. I've got him at wide receiver 34. It's not so much about the matchup because like DJ Turner does factor into this. I'm kind of propping up Godwin because I think if Turner plays that could funnel a few extra targets Godwin's way. That's where Godwin isn't the same player he was before that grew some ankle injury midway through the 2024 season. Last year they had to shut down Godwin early in the year because the lingering issues averaged a career low 7.1 yards per target last season. But you know, it is a good scoring environment in this game with the high Vegas total as you mentioned warm. And maybe if Turner isn't playing, like I'm probably going to drop Godwin another spot or two just because that would kind of elevate a Buka.

13:40I feel the same way that deep road I was about Turner. I mean, he is one of the unheralded stars of the NFL. Yeah, he's going to get paid. So fits then are if you're lower on Godwin, are you higher on a Buka than DeBro is because the you know, with the gun with things going to be a high score game. The passes are going to have to go somewhere or wide receiver 22. Okay. So just one spot ahead of consensus. I think I'm out. I think I'm a little ahead of consensus on Jalen McMillan for whatever that's worth. Sure. I don't think many people in week one with fully healthy starting lineups are starting Jalen McMillan, but you never know. He's like a wide receiver five or something like that. So I just over 64 in consensus. DeBro are sort of the reverse question. Are you higher on Godwin since you're lower on a Buka. I am higher on Godwin. I have my wide receiver 29. I think it's a good coverage matchup for him. I do share if it's his concerns about like, what has he got left in the tank? I'm a little bit higher on him only because if you look at just weeks 13 through 18 when he came back last year, only a 16% target share, but he was producing 1.88 yards per out run 0.107 first downs per out run.

14:54Those are really solid numbers. So I we got to see it though. I have concerns about which version of Chris Godwin we see this year, but I do really like him. Like I've already bet is over receiving artich market or excuse me is prop for a week one. And I will be above consensus on him because of Turner plays. I'm very worried about it Buka. Next game Saints at lions. This game has the second highest total on the slate. It's just under 50 at 49 and a half on betting pros consensus odds. That's betting pros calm. Unlike the last question. Let's lean into the fun of the high number. Give me a player ranked highly in this matchup who you expect to have an even better game than his high ranking would suggest. DeBro. I'll start with you. Chris Alave. I don't care that he's a top 10 wide receiver already like he could be a top three wide receiver this week. Like for going against this secondary if Tyler Shuck is is slinging the ball. There's so many different paths for Chris Alave to crush. I mean if you look at last year weeks 12 through 18 Detroit Lions give it the fourth most fantasy points per target perimeter wide receivers 10th most yards per target.

16:00Terrible against guarding against the deep ball give it the second most deep passing arts per game in that stretch as well. They have both their starting safeties out. I'm not worried about any of their starting corners that they're going to run out there. Here are an Arnold's not on this roster anymore. We know that the total is high. We know there's going to be points. We know Tyler Shuck is going to have to freaking throw the ball. This is also more of a pass funnel. Then I don't think the Saints are going to have a lot of success running the ball in this matchup against the Lions defensive line. All signs for this game point me back to Chris Alave. The consensus odds six and a half receptions 76 and a half receiving yards are small numbers but he'll really attainable in this matchup. Yeah, I mean he could go for 100 and like 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns in this game. He's well, you're seven in consensus. You mentioned that you like you could see him being water see for three. You can't really rank him that high just given some of the names and obviously guys like Jason and Puka have already played and we're ranked higher more highly.

17:01So so the ranking isn't going to reflect that but obviously just somebody that you are very very high on for this week. Fits who stands out to you a player that's ranked highly that you are even higher on that consensus. I'm thinking along the same lines. Debrou is like without Brian branch and Kirby Joseph those lion safeties Detroit is a past defense. We're going to want to attack early in the year because branch and Joseph are both like star caliber guys and when they played full seasons in 2023. The safety is are largely responsible for tight end coverage. They played full seasons in 2023. The lines a lot of the second few as fantasy points to tight ends. And then last year branch missed five games. Joseph missed 11 games and the Lions were middle of the pack against tight ends 15th. So I want to lean into that with Juwan Johnson. I've got him tight and eight this this week.

18:03Hi this is highly breakman. Angel Jaretana Jeremy Colhane past McDonald and we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know if you guys heard of foe journaling. Yeah it's reading it's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay a panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's peloton class? No! I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sudako in the thousand paper cranes by Auderman Donald at the Wonderland bookstore 14. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland bookstore yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of zero dark 30. No way! We'll have to come to the last bookstore though. Kim Kertroll is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween.

19:05It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you get the elbows here the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen it least so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on the I heard radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. College football will hijack your weekend ruin your sleep and break your heart. And that's why we make the Sullivan verbal college football show. I'm Ty Hildenbrand. He's Dan Rubenstein. We've been playing basketball. Every week we preview the games that matter sort through the biggest storylines and tell you what to watch before kickoff. There's a lot to keep track of. Who's for real? Which upset is hiding in plain sight? And which storyline is about to take over your group chat? And when the games are over join us in the aftermath too. We're going to react to what happened. Talk about the biggest results. Of course we'll cover the playoff picture. And all the little details you might have missed while flipping between like 12 games at once.

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21:09that every fan can understand and enjoy. So whether you're a casual fan learning more about football or a hardcore fan who can't get enough analysis, our goal is to help you see the game in a whole new way. If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork, how a matchup was won, or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL Pro delivers the insights you simply can't get anywhere else. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Debra IS fits this already on the Thursday show, so I want to ask you, because I think a lot of us are really excited about Sean Johnson this week. There is a very consensus top eight tight ends in draft season, one of those with powers, so set him aside for now that leaves a consensus top seven from draft season that are ranked as the top seven in consensus for week one, McBride, Loveland, Warren, Pitz, the Port of Craft fan. And don't worry about the order of those of the seven. Do you think Chihuah-Jahnsen deserves to be ranked eighth right behind them, or even

22:10within that top seven ahead of those guys who were going well ahead in draft season, given the matchup and the opportunity here, or do you still have them outside of that range? Why does Kyle Pitz why should it be ranked above John Johnson? I just I just realized I have Johnson ahead of pit, so he's actually tight end seven. Okay. I've got Johnson tight end seven right ahead of the logs ahead of one of those guys. The pit is tied at four, by the way, in consensus. That's does everybody realize Cooper Rush could be starting that game? Right. I mean, just saying, well, I said I wouldn't a week ago, I was feeling pretty good that my two tight ends in the dynasty league that we're all in were Bowers and Pitz. And now I'm like, not so much. No, I'm ready. Debra, you were talking of Kate Aten on the stream yesterday. Should I start him over Pitz and I mean, still the quarterback. I don't know that I can actually do that, but I don't know if I can actually do that. But I mean, dude, like, Kyle, whatever way, you know, we'll get to, we'll get to that. But you know, I'm with you. Johnson, you guys do have inside your top seven.

23:11Okay. So like very, very much a guy you're trying to look at. Would you consider starting him in the flex? I mean, it's not really likely that you guys would need to this early in the season. Again, people are still pretty full rosters. But if you like to match up that much, would either of you consider him. Tide and premium. Tide and premium regular scoring and no. I mean, I just don't think there's enough injuries and there's not enough like buy, there's no buy weeks and stuff like that. So I don't think you have to go there. Okay. Yeah. All right. If you want to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams jersey, then this is your shot. All you have to do is subscribe to the tailgate YouTube channel. Right now, drop a comment below on any video. And that is it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. All right. Bills at Texans. Key question here across the last two seasons, two of Josh Allen's three lowest quarterback ratings in any individual games have come in his two matchups against the Texans defense. He's finished as QB 22 and QB 19 in those two games. Now the Texans look better on defense than ever.

24:14What are your expectations for the bills offense in this one fits? Yeah. Boy, Josh Allen does not like the city of Houston. Does he last year, 253 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions in a bills loss in 2024. Allen was nine of 30 for 131 yards in a road loss to the Texans. Much earlier in his career, rookie year through for 84 yards and no touchdowns and one of his starts and then Josh Allen's first ever playoff game, a loss in overtime to Houston 22 19 after he completed 52.2% of his throws and didn't have any touchdowns. I've got Alan rank QB five this week. I can never completely fade a guy who runs the way he does and could give you two rushing touchdowns in any game. And against what might be the toughest defense in the NFL, but man, it does kind of stink for the people who spent an early round draft pick on Josh Allen to get this match up right out of the gate. It's one of those things where it's like I can't in good conscious as somebody who does

25:19is professionally tells somebody to not start the consensus to be one. Yeah. And I also don't like I think typically fantasy managers overreact to tough matchups. This is to me as tough as a match up can get because again, I do think this is a it's a defense that has already given him fits and B is going to be even better this season. I think this really will be like the 2000 Ravens, you know, O2 box 2013 Seattle, like I think this year's Texas team can be if they say healthy in that category like a they are that good. But like if you draft a Josh Allen, who else did you draft that you're going to start instead right? Like that becomes where the start really actionable for the rest of the offense, D. Bro, like even if we say, okay, even if we don't like it, we're starting Josh Allen, are you fading DJ more? I mean, again, James Cook is another guy that you like pretty much have to be starting. Like what are you doing with the rest of the guys in this offense? You're starting James Cook. You're not playing DJ more unless you have to depending on your options. You're not playing.

26:19Obviously, Cleal, Shakira and deeper leagues. I do think that don't concave depending on your tight end options because Houston, yes, they added reblanca chip in the off season. But last year, weeks 12 through 18, this is mostly, I mean, pretty much this exact same freaking defense that rolling back, Donkey Kade is the X factor in this game because during those weeks, 12 through 18 last year, Houston gave the seventh most receiving fantasy points per game, opposing tight ends, 11 most fantasy points per opportunity. So can Kade is the only bills option outside of Josh Allen and James Cook? I'm probably willing to start this game. The bills or the Texans defense is kind of a tight end funnel, but like, I don't know, I don't feel great about being funneled into reblanca chip and Jalen Petri and those guys like really good personnel, man. And you guys have to pick who do you think will be the better defense this year, Seattle or Houston? To me, those are like the two that are even ahead of them. And Dan Verhrui thinks really good. Like those two, I think stand apart for me. Do you guys think like you have a sense of when you like that?

27:22That's really tough. But I think Houston is number one right now. I think Houston's number one or three of them like McDonald defense. So I'm like really curious what that's going to look like and Seattle, but man, Houston's good. I think if you look in there, they're just, they're very different defenses based off of like because Seattle, you get all the coverage to see disguises, you get the safety rotations and stuff. Houston, they're just like straight up like that. They don't do a lot of the same kind of bells and whistles in McDonald. Like Domingo Ryan's like our dudes are better than your dudes. Try to beat us. Good luck. I'm going to tell you that you walked for sure. Yeah. With Houston, it's got to feel like, you know, being chased by the zombies in 28 days later who are just like fast and unrelenting. Yes. I have seen that movie, by the way. I knew you were going to ask. All right. Let's go to a second question, actually, in this one because I do think this is sort of the biggest game of the day. And I think it's worth looking at the other side of the ball in the matchup too. If the bill's offense versus Texans defense is strength on strength, the other side of the ball is closer to weakness on weakness.

28:23So, you know, we'll see what this Houston offense looks like. And we'll see what the bills defense looks like under Jim Leonard. But it looks like more of the weakness on weakness here. So who wins the day between that new Buffalo defense under Jim Leonard versus CJ Stroud in his first game since his disastrous postseason performance fits? Well, being a fan of the University of Wisconsin football team where Jim Leonard used to be the defensive coordinator, I know a little bit about him. He's a sharp cat. I'll say the bills hold the Texans under 20 points this way. But Debra, you feel the same. Yeah, I don't look at the bills defense as being weak. I do can definitely say that about the Houston offense. Like, I think it's going to be a lot of running the ball, a lot leaning on David Montgomery. I mean, bills because even like we could talk about like if they weren't like a top tier defense, they were really freaking good down the stretch last year. Like weeks 12 through 18, give the fewest charts per 10th, six lowest pass rating. They're good against defending against the deep ball. Question Benford might shadow. Nico Collins. He did that a few times last year.

29:24So they take him away. What is Houston going to do? I think this is going to be a rock fight type of game. I don't really want to invest again, like going back to this. Like, I'm worried about Nico Collins in the matchup. CJ Stroud, no, thank you. Dalton Schultz versus a defense that's been elite versus tight ends over the last few years. Yeah, the only guy like I really want to start from the Houston offense is probably David Montgomery and that's about it. Benford's good, but you think he's taking Nico away. Broke under 50 yards. Benford is, is that dude? He's really freaking good, man. Fitz, do you like to under in this one? 44 and a half. I do. Yeah, I do too. All right, next game Ravens at Colts. Let's look at the stars in this one with two guys ranked inside the top five at their respective positions. Who will have a higher positional finish in week one? Lamar Jackson in his first game with the new play collar or Jonathan Taylor against a defensive play collar who has historically been weaker against the run fits. I'll start with you here. Well, I guess it's Lamar since I've earned QB one this week and it's not necessarily

30:30an easy matchup for him. The Colts have an excellent quarterback duo in SawSkarner and Sherveryous Ward. Ward isn't always healthy, but he's healthy right now. But the Colts might not have much of a pass rush, which could be a problem. But I know. Yeah, I just, I know the Baltimore run defense was shockingly soft last season. Worm as you remember, but things should be better with non-dimetabweak A back from his neck injury. Although it's not totally clear whether he's going to play this week. Like he's been getting unlimited practice. I think they're more circling week two, but week one is still not really out as sort of my interpretation. All right. Plus the Colts running game fell off last season after Daniel Jones got hurt. Jones is back, but I don't know if the Colts running game immediately goes back to what it was before the injury when Jonathan Taylor was scoring touchdowns like LeDany and Tom Linson. I just, I don't know about that. I think Lamar is a slightly better bet to finish at the top of his position this week.

31:34For what it's worth, Jonathan Taylor in a matchup against Jesse Minter's Chargers defense a year ago, 16 carries 94 yards and three touchdowns. The Chargers scored 38 points in that game against him. It is definitely different, but I just wanted to throw it out because he has faced Jesse Minter defense relatively recently. Debra, where are you at on this one? Do you like Lamar better amongst QBs or Jonathan Taylor better amongst running backs? Lamar better and it's not close to me. I think you're not giving your Ravens run defense enough credit to be honest, man. If Metabwe play plays, then they get a bump there, but your Ravens were really freaking good against the run down the stretch last year. Like again, week 12 through 18, fourth lowest explosive run rate, ninth lowest rushing success rate, fourth highest stuff rate. I don't think you're giving Ravens enough credit here, worm. I'm actually kind of worried about Taylor in this game. Interesting. Well, do you guys have any concerns about Lamar? I know he's been really good in like first games with new play collars in the past, but

32:34this is like a brand new play collar who's never done it before. I've got a very young like to me. I'm not even saying that like I'm nervous about losing the game. I mean, of course it could happen. The Colts aren't terrible, but like it's more just like I wonder how Lamar will actually look and the offense in general will actually look in game one with a very detailed oriented Declan Doyle offense who like maybe it takes some time. You know, Lamar is a lot more established in Caleb Williams, but it did take a little bit last year for this offense to start clicking like under Ben Johnson and Declan Doyle. Now it's just Declan Doyle. It doesn't have Ben Johnson there to help. And you know, again, Lamar is more of a veteran there, but you know, the offensive line isn't perfect, right? Big question marks at center. Pass catching group isn't perfect. There's question marks beyond Z flowers. Like I wonder if this end up will end up being an under game again, which we're picking a lot of and B if Lamar maybe the problem here as I see it, Debro is like there's not really an obvious QB one on the week with Josh Allen facing Houston. If you are nervous about Lamar in his first game with the new play collar, it's like Joe

33:38Burrow usually starts off slow. Jalen herds has a new play collar as well. Right? Like there's not like, you know, Justin Herbert, we're all excited, but again, a new play collar. So there's not like an obvious QB one to slot in there as far as I can tell, but yeah, those are some of some of my nervousness, Debro. Yeah. I mean, I think you could poke holes in all the top quarterbacks this week. I mean, I think like we could see like Dak Prescott BKB one or Jared golf BKB one this week. Again, like you go down the laundry list of guys, Joe Burrow Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hertz, new play collars where they typically start slow, Justin Herbert has a smash matchup, but then Amarie and Hampton's going to go for like three touchdowns. Herbert tosses none and then we're all like, Oh, Justin Herbert had a really efficient game. Didn't lead to any fantasy points, but getting back to Lamar Jackson. Yeah, I've got some concerns, man. Like a new brand new offense. It's going to ask new things out of Lamar Jackson to play on play on time, play in structure and things like that. But the reason why I do have I'm with it's like, or you got to make QB one, I do it in my QB two is just the rushing.

34:40So I think this will be an undergame, but I think that the cults are kind of bringing the total down. I think that this total is only so high because of last year's cults with Daniel Jones and a lot of that carrying this total. Like I think this total should be more of like the 45 and a half type of variety than 48. I know that that obviously is very different than the betting markets, but I like the under in this game. I think Lamar can still get it done with his legs. I love Mark Andrews matchup. We've talked about that on previous shows. I think Zay flowers can get it done versus toss Gardner. We'll see if Trevor is for plays in this game, but I'm worried about Lamar, but I think the rushing will definitely can raise the ceiling and floor like it always does for Lamar. I think this is sneaky one of the most fascinating games of the entire slate, just like what does Lamar look like with that clandoil? What does the Jesse Menter defense look like with him now just his first game as head coach? What does Daniel Jones look like coming off of the injury? I mean, some of the soccer camps pretty positive. Luana Rumo has been like pretty good against Lamar in the past when he was a senti like as

35:43a defensive play car like this is just a really fascinating chess match to me. So I'm even aside from being a Ravens fan. What does Alan really like? What does Ramashan Marks in this one? So I'm really, really intrigued by that game. This one here, a little less intrigued by this one, Browns at Jaguars. I don't really want to spend too much time on this one. So I'll just give this very simple. Parker Washington was every fantasy analyst favorite draft, darling this season, predicts his week one stat line, Debra. I will give you seven catches for 80 and a touchdown and it could be more than that. I think that James Gladstone is trying to get this Parker Washington contract done before week one for very good reason, because I think Parker Washington could eat a week one. So I'm going more of a median and not like the true high and high end projection for Parker Washington. Miles Harden, the slot corner for Cleveland was got awful last year. Give up a 71.9% catch rate, 119 pass rating is coverage amongst 34 qualifying swat corners last year. That was the fifth highest pass rating and coverage ninth most fantasy points for target.

36:46And the ninth highest rate of step or separation last year. And I think if you look at just you zoom out and you look at just the sample of wind in the award and Tyson Campbell were healthy last year. This Browns defense was an elite unit versus perimeter wide receivers. They gave up in those eight games, the third lowest marks and fantasy points per target in yards per target to perimeter wide receivers. I think you look at this matchup. It funnels targets to Parker Washington. I think Britain strange can have low key a really good game quieter games for Brian Thomas Jr. and Jacobi Myers on the outside, but Parker Washington, I think he's going to justify the big contract that I think is coming for him. Fitz give me Parker Washington's stat line. Nine targets, six catches, 81 yards. Just want to give you something commensurate with my wide receiver, 26 rating. Nice. I got him top 24 and already bet the over four and a half receptions right now. You get it plus money out there in the market. Enjoy people. But by the way, Fitz is very quickly because Debra and I got this question a billion times

37:47in the stream. I would have seen what Fitz says. Maybe you like between question lots in and Parker Washington this week. We got this question. I'm not kidding. Probably three dozen times on the stream yesterday over 20 over 20 times. I've got Watson ranked a little higher. I just think he's a little more integral to his team's offense than Washington is to his. But I mean, I really like both guys. That's a tough one for me. Debra's answer was consistently starting both if you can. Yeah, start it. That was like it. Start both. Yeah. But I've got Watson at water. Super 18. I've got Parker Washington and water. See for 21. Okay. Yeah. Folks, football is back and it's time to level up your approach to the NFL and college football this season because polymarket is here. Polymarket is a legal prediction market now available in all 50 states and unlike traditional sportsbooks on polymarket. You can trade on all things football from the Saturday and Sunday Slates. So who wins the Heisman to who performs the halftime show?

38:48Polymarket gives you the freedom to cash out instantly. If the momentum swings, you sell it off in real time, you are in control. No one can lock you out. You can also buy in any time. So when the market dips, like if a team starts slow and drops to say 40%, that's not a loss. That's when you buy in at polymarket. You can buy cheap and ride the momentum back up. Polymarket is so confident. You'll never go back to the old way. They're issuing a challenge. They are giving you a $50 bonus when you deposit just $10. Find up right now with promo code FPPOD. That's polymarket.us and use promo code FPPOD to get a $50 bonus when you deposit just $10. All right, guys, Falcons at Steelers. I originally asked this question when I made the sheet about two at Tunga, Veloah. It pretty much still applies if that ends up being Cooper Rush or Jack Strand or whoever. How far down the ranks are you dropping Falcons skill players with insert whoever the quarterback is here playing at quarterback, especially against the defense with such a strong front 70, bro. I'm not dropping Bajon Robinson.

39:48I think regardless, he's going to get checked down. He's going to get rushing volume. Not worried about him at all. But Drake London, I've adjusted down to wide receiver 12 and I could go, I mean, I'm probably going to nudge him a little bit lower depending on who's going to be under center and we already kind of covered Kyle Pits. I've bumped him down to tight in eight. I'm going to update both those guys in the primer by Friday night and stuff and regardless of whoever the quarterback is, I'm worried about them. So yeah. I mean, we're bumping down Kyle Pits a lot. It's already sounded like compared to consensus when we talked about him earlier. I think Fitz Drake London should definitely get bumped down like a pretty significantly to me. Yeah. Right now, I've got him a wide receiver 11 and that is with the, I've still got the two of ranks. And this is the guy who, if it were Michael Penix Jr., even against the Steelers, I would have London inside the top 10. But yes, if it's going to be Cooper Rush and maybe even if it's going to be a compromise to I do have to look at moving the London down a little bit.

40:50I've got B. John running back three ahead him behind McCaffrey this week and I've got Pits as we talked about it at tight end eight. I mean, it's sad to say I'm not trying to be snarky here genuinely. Like there's no such thing as an uncompromised to anymore. Like every game he plays, you're watching him. He's not the quarterback he was coming out of college and he said Alabama and it's like like even if it was to and this like latest tweak to his oblique didn't happen this week, I would still be terrified of starting London in the matchup at Pittsburgh. I, I, I, we've been talking about this a lot. I really think the Steelers are just going to put the clamps on this offense. Like regardless of the court, Penix is the only quarterback that I would be, you know, more excited about for Atlanta. The any other option. I really think it's going to put really ugly. I was just going to point out the spreads only what three and a half which right now, which kind of wild. Yeah. Every, but every time you think the Steelers are going to smash someone they lay an egg. That's right. And every time you think the Steelers are overmatched, they somehow win the game. But we talked about it.

41:50But is that for my Tom and I'm right? Yes. Right. Yeah. Are we doing with a different Mike and Pittsburgh now? I don't know. That's right. But I'm with, I was going to be John, like, right, you can't drop him because he's, he's B. John Robinson. But like everybody else, even though I think they're really good players like Jake London particularly, I just, I can't. Debra. Before we move on quick PSA, I've said it before and I'll say it again. This team should be starting Jack Strand. I don't care about pinnocks. I don't care about you. I don't. I just come on. Do pinnocks is not good. 2026 Max Brozmer. He do. Dude, they're so different. They're, they're not even comparable. Michael pinnocks, like he runs. We have too many games to get through to have a Brozmer versus Strand. Yeah. So we'll drive to the next. That's fair. Now, let's go to the matchup. That is the Brozmer versus Strand of matchups this week. Jen Titans. The total on this game, consensus of betting pros 39 and a half, the lowest of the week by a wide margin. If I force you to pick one player in this matchup to be significantly above consensus

42:52on sort of the opposite of those high totals and questions we were asking, who would it be? Fits, is there anybody that you are above consensus on in this poor matchup? Yeah. Both the backup running backs and especially Taijai Spears. I have Spears at running back 39 and I think even that might be too low. I just think the Titans backfield is going to be more of a time share than most people realize. And in the preseason when Cam Ward was on the field, Spears and Tony Pollard's split snaps pretty evenly. Think Spears might have even had like one or two more snaps on Cam Ward snaps in the preseason than Pollard did. So I think that's going to be a tighter division of labor than people realize. Also Braille and Allen, I just, Breeze Hall coming off this groin injury. I don't think the Jets want to beat him into the ground. They have talked pretty openly about wanting to use a multi-pronged backfield.

43:53So I think Braille and Allen's going to get a little more work than maybe people realize. So both Friday backs here for Fizzes called zero. Who are you above consensus on? I'd make the case for Cornell Tate and I know how bad Cam Ward looked in the preseason. I'm very worried about Cam Ward, but playing the other side of the coin here, the Jets secondary is not good, man. Like Brandon Stevens is not good. Last year give of one 26.4 pass rating. Nayshawn Wright is not anybody that I am worried about in coverage. If Cam Ward can just run the Daniel Jones version of this freaking offense from Brian Day of All Cam, I mean, Cornell Tate can have a really good game here. So, you know, it bucking all the preseason worries and not coming out with a catch and stuff which really wasn't a, uh, Cornell Tate thing. That was a cut Cam Ward problem. If Cam Ward can, can put it together in this game, Cornell Tate can have a really good one. I think you guys picked the player that I was sort of circling in my head, which is Wanda L. Robinson, just, you know, familiarity with Brian Day of All, of course, obviously they

44:53paid him to bring him in this off season. And he's, he's not a water super 42. I think in any sort of league where you're getting, you know, points, even a half point PPR, but any sort of league where you're getting anything for catching passes, I think you might catch a lot of passes in this game. And it won't be like a superstar performance, but it'll be like you look up and in PPR, oh, he had like 14 points of PPR because he caught so many balls. I think that's on the table for Wanda. Yeah. So I like him above consensus too. I'm starting him in a league this week. I'm a both consensus on him. So I'm with you, man. A lot of names to be above consensus on apparently in this one. So I don't, I don't feel great about that. But if you're not sure who to start, get fast, free starter, sit advice with the fantasy pros. Who should I start to will compare your players and get instant recommendations powered by more than 150 fantasy experts. So your best lineup today at fantasy pros.com slash start. We're through the early slate guys. Let's go to the late afternoon slate. Cardinals at Chargers, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Quentin Johnston are just two spots apart in week one, ECR at the wide receiver position. Who do you guys like to have a better stat line in this game between the two?

45:57Debra, I'll start with you. Quentin Johnston, I think that he was the wide receiver one for the Chargers when he was healthy last year. I think he's the wide receiver one for the Chargers this year. I think he's going to have a big game in this one. I mean, again, going to a secondary that I'm not worried about at all cardinal secondary give the ninth most yards per target to perimeter wide receivers last year. So I think you Jake and have a big game. Whereas I mean, the Chargers secondary is still kind of underrated. I know they lost Jesse mentor in the offseason. Marvin Harrison, Jr. still has to catch passes from Jacobi percent. So we'll see how that goes. By the way, I said there were two spots apart. It has updated since I put together show sheet there. Now one spot apart, they are literally neck and neck in ECR. It is wide receiver 33 from Marvin Harrison, Jr. wide receiver 34 for Quentin Johnston. That's in half a PR rankings fits. Who do you like better? I've got Harrison wide receiver 30. So I guess I'm a little ahead of consensus on him. And I've got QJ wide receiver 36. So just behind consensus, I think it's more about game flow for me.

46:57And I don't like to make sweeping assumptions about game scripts and how things are going to go. But look, the the Chargers are favored by what 10 points. Like they're the biggest favorites on the slate. I don't expect the Cardinals to lead the NFL and pass attempts. Again, this season, but I do expect them to skew somewhat pass heavy in week one as big underdogs with Jeremiah love probably not ready to handle 20 carries. Coming off the high ankle sprains. I think they're going to be pass heavy in. I don't know. A lot of people think this is going to be kind of a close split between Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison, Jr. But last year when Marvin Harrison, Jr. was on the field, Michael Wilson was invisible. You know, he did all his damage when Marvin Harrison, Jr. was hurt. So I've got MHA ranks, you know, top 30. I kind of agree with you. Fitz just since the sense of like the game script, this is nine and a half is the spread, by the way, is the consensus on betting pros.com. And I, I like, I know that we spent all off season saying like, listen,

47:58they're not going to pass as much as they did last year. But in this one, I think they might have to to try to keep up. And this might be one where even if it's garbage time, like I do think he will get some catches. I also like, and we talked a lot about this in the dynasty show Fitz. I need another year before I'm willing to totally put the nail in the coffin on Marvin Harrison, Jr. career. I'm not saying he's going to be the superstar that was, that we thought was promised, you know, when he came in, but I'm, I'm not ready to rule out like a legitimate step forward this year. If Michael, if Michael for can do something more with this offense, even with the quarterback question marks. So yeah, you hit it on the head, the new play collar. And I just think we have to lower expectations that he's probably not going to achieve the superstar level without he was capable of coming into the league. But I think he could still be a really good receiver. Yeah. And I definitely think that he's higher in the pecking more than Michael Wilson. I agree with both y'all because this splits with Wilson, just kind of tell the tale. And everybody's going to the contract and stuff. And I'm like, that's just, that's just the, the franchise saying, look, you're really good. Number two wide receiver in our offense were dropping a quarterback in this. We don't want to lose you.

48:58That's all that is. For the record, I, I probably have both these guys ahead of consensus, not, not just Marvin Harrison Jr. And I like him slightly better. I, I, I like both of these guys relatives. And Michael Wilson. No, no, no, no, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Clint Johnston. Oh, okay. I was like, yes, I was like, man, you're really high on Jacobi percent. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Marvin Harrison Jr. Ed and my Johnston. All right, let's go to the next game here at Dolphin's at Raiders. Just a couple of days ago, we found out that Brock Bauer has had a procedure done on his knee, shaving off some of that meniscus. And he is expected to miss one to two games or more. Those last I saw it. And if there's been an update on the timetable there, where are you guys ranking Michael Mayor against the Dolphins in Bauer's absence, Steve, bro? I've got mayor a Titan 13. I think high in Titan, too, is kind of like the range. Now, you know, we could quibble on like Titan 13 versus Titan 17 or 18. I think there's a long like laundry list of guys like whether we want to talk about King Cade Ferguson, Strange, Otton, Dullsitch, all these different guys that were

50:01whoever scores a freaking touchdown this week, like we can quibble upon like where we have them ranked. But I think Michael Mayor is going to get a lot of targets in this game. Is he going to be Brock Bauer's Esk in this game? No, they're different players. But the matchups really good. Miami gave up the ninth most charts per target and fantasy points for opportunity to tie it in this defense did not improve in the off season. So yeah, I mean, I'm not like crazy high on Michael Mayor, but like if you got Bauer's and now you're like, okay, who the heck do I play? You should have picked up Michael Mayor and you're probably starting him. So just looking at this matchup, I think it's pretty good. But I the other thing I'll add here, I think the readers are being extremely positive about the time possible miss for Brock Bauer's. I think it's going to be longer than two games. I hope I'm wrong, but I that feels like very positive. By the way, I should have mentioned Titan 15 in consensus right now from Michael Mayor. That's obviously gone up in the last couple of days. The three names ahead of him, Jake Ferguson, Dalton, Kincaid, Mark Andrews.

51:03Like I know we like the matchup for Andrews. Kincaid, we talked about a little during that Buffalo Houston preview. We haven't gotten to Dallas yet, but some interesting. Like I almost think Mayor is more interesting if you waited on Titan and then picked him up now as opposed to like if you had Bauer's, you just pick him up and start him. And that's kind of an easy call. If you didn't draft Bauer's and you had one of these like guys who was ranked in this 11 to 15 16 range, that to me fits is where it gets a little more interesting. But if you're going to start mayor or not, where's he ranked for you? Titan 11. Nice. So last year when the Raiders shut down Bauer's for three games early in the year after he's sprained his PCL in week one. Was it himself the next couple of games? So they shut him down. Michael Mayor missed the first of those three games that Bauer's missed. But then mayor came back in the second of those games had five catches for 50 yards in a touchdown on seven targets. Then in the third game that Bauer's missed, mayor only one catch for 10 yards. But that was a game where the Raiders got demolished by the chiefs 31 and nothing and ran fewer than 40 offensive plays.

52:05That was just a complete washout offensively for them. The Raiders of a real coaching staff this year, they've improved their offensive line. Kirk Cousins historically has been a very tight and friendly quarterback. And perhaps most important of all, if you're looking for reasons to play Michael Mayor this week, the Miami defensive backfield could be the worst in the league. Like really young and inexperienced Chris Johnson, their, their late first round rookie, probably the best guy in their defensive backfield hasn't played NFL snap yet. And at safety, again, safety is very responsible for tight end coverage. They've got two fifth round draft picks, one, a rookie, one, a second, your guy. I think Dante, trader and Michael Taft are the guys. Like I think mayor kind of a good week. I've got him. Yeah. Inside tight end one range. Yeah. I could seem being taught 12. Our colleague Mike mayor, we're expecting to have a big game this week, but it just in case people don't know, we have a friend and coworker whose name is Michael mayor. I'm not saying we work with the Raiders tight end.

53:06Next game, who by the way, I don't know if he wears Michael mayor jerseys 24 seven. I think that might be a thing. I think he does love to have to Michael mayor in every league for the reason his last name, which I respect. He definitely embraces the bit. Packers at Vikings. I could have gone with more of a narrative question here, like a Kyler Murray's first game. I feel like we talked about that a lot all summer long. Like just what this offense is going to look like under Kyler and you kind of want to see it rather than try to guess what exactly it'll look like. So I want to do kind of a strict rankings question here. There are two running backs in this game who are very close in ECR. Marshawn Lloyd for the Packers, Jordan Mason for the Vikings. When I put this together, they were five spots apart. I'll double check to see how close they are now because obviously a couple of times early today that has changed. They are, they are still five spots apart. Okay. I'm sorry they're four spots apart. Marshawn Lloyd is RB 28. Jordan Mason is RB 32. Fitz, who do you prefer for week one? So I also have Marshawn Lloyd RB 28. But I've got Jordan Mason RB 26.

54:08And I think people are maybe sleeping on the likelihood that Mason is the lead back for the Vikings and they have a redesign run scheme that apparently is a great fit for him. I don't know. Just like I've heard beat riders, smart people observing the lot, the Vikings in training camp say they think like Mason is the guy this year and that Aaron Jones is going to be more of a change of pace guy. So Packers did have a lot of trouble defending the run late last year, although they had some injuries, Michael Parsons, Devante Wyatt. Still, I think a pretty favorable matchup for Mason. And with Lloyd, I just, I don't think they're giving him that many carries this week. Like they're not giving him 20 carries with his injury history. I think Chris Brooks is going to get a good number of running back snaps for the Packers. And yeah, I'm not seeing a Derek Henry ask workload for Marshawn Lloyd this week. So Mason just a smidge higher.

55:09So Debro fits is exactly in line with consensus on Lloyd. He's just well ahead of consensus on Jordan Mason. Where are you at on these two guys? I have got Jordan Mason at RB 30 and I've got Lloyd right outside the top 24. I think Lloyd's going to get more of the backfield than Chris Brooks because of the past game utility. I'm not saying anything to get 20 carries, but I think like 15 to 17 opportunities, like with also like three or four catches in this game, I think it can definitely be had. And 50 like, I got more respect on the Packers run defense man. Like, I know they struggled a little bit down the back half of the last year, but in totality, they give it the sixth lowest explosive run rate, the fifth fewest yards of to contact for a tent last year. Like, I think Kyler struggles in this game and I think it's going to have a downward effect on Jordan Mason. I think he is, I'm totally with you on that. He is going to be the lead back this year. And I'm very excited to see what Minnesota can do on the ground with him. But I'm also excited to see like what Lloyd can do against this Minnesota run defense.

56:12Like, they've got new parts and pieces. Kato Banks is brand new, big citrus is brand new. Does this Vikings run defense look much improved from last year because they were a middle of the road unit last year. They were 16th and explosive run rate 15th and yards of to contact for a tent. They give the sixth highest rushing success rate. So I'm pro Lloyd on this one. By the way, very quickly, don't even give me an explanation. Just give me a name who is ranked higher after two quarterbacks for you guys in this game. Kyler or Jordan love this week fits. Yeah, debatable whether it's a really good match up for Jordan Mason in the running game. Less debatable, I think that Kyler is a great match up. He's actually 11 for me this week. Oh, okay. Packers, I don't know what the past rush is going to look like without Mike Parsons. And their cornerbacks are not good. Like, I think their best cornerback is their second round rookie Brandon Cise. It's good analysis, but it makes me laugh that I was like, just give me a name. No deep dive. If it's give up on it's okay. Okay, Deva, who's ranked higher for you?

57:12Of those two. Jordan love. Easy, Jordan love. He's been awesome versus the Blitz and we know Brian Flores is going to blitz him. How many how many touched on passes did the Vikings give up over the second half of last season? It was like one in their last seven or eight games. I was going to say it's interesting because Jordan love has had really big games against Brian Flores Vikings defenses before, but his last two have not been good at all. So it's like he has it on his resume, but not recently. So I'm curious. I know we're supposed to go short with this, but the flip side of the Kyler coin. If there is any coach in the entire freaking NFL that knows both Kyler's strengths and his obvious weaknesses, you have to believe it's Jonathan Ganon. That's a good point. And Kyler is not good versus too high. And not to push back against fits here. The Parsons thing is an issue, but here's the other side of that coin. I don't really care about the past rush. If you're forcing Kyler to play from the pocket, he can't see over the offensive line. He doesn't throw to the middle of the field. He's playing against too high coverage.

58:13This all seems like a kind of a letdown spot for Kyler for me. But T-Burl, if the Packers earn too high all day, doesn't that mean light boxes and that Jordan Mason should smash against that defense? Oh, depends. We'll see if your Packers run defense comes to play if it's he. All right, that was a much longer detour that I meant us to take apologies there. No apologies. I will not apologize for it. Let's go to commanders at Eagles. Another game where I'm really surprised by the the spread here. We'll get to that in a second. Two new young offensive coordinators in this one. David Blow is Sean Manian. We talked about this actually in our season preview key questions episode, which offense is going to hit the ground running in week one with a new play collar. Or will it be neither or both? Debron. I think the Eagles had the better chance to do that. I don't know if either one of them do that out the gate. But I think the Eagles had the better chance to do that. What I got to see in this game is the commander's offensive line functional enough to allow the commanders and David Blow to do the things that he wants to do because I'm really worried about

59:14that it's offensive line, especially attacking the Eagles in week one. Given how that tweet went around, you might ask if it's going to be operable, the offensive line, because the word keyword was inoperable during a training camp. Fits what do you think? Who is going to hit the ground running? commanders, Eagles, neither or both. I'll make up for lost time with the short answer here. Sean Manian, the Eagles defense is nasty. I think it's almost in the Texans Seahawks category. And we know about the washing and offensive line problems. Yeah, if those teams are tier one defense, I think Eagles, Denver, those are like the tier two defenses. I'm looking at they're still really, really good. I have a second question on this game, which is kind of along those lines. Every Eagle is actually ranked higher in their week one. ECR than the area they were drafted this summer. And every commander is ranked lower in week one. ECR than where they were drafted this summer. So based on these fantasy rankings, we seem to very much think that the Eagles are heavy favorites in this one. I would agree with that ranking sentiment personally. And yet the line on polymarket is just four and a half points. So might this game end up being closer than expected fits?

1:00:16Or do you think this, you know, we talk about what Falcon Steelers is, this is an example of like this line might be smaller than you would expect for a reason? Well, I bet the Eagles side tend to think not and that the line is too tight. I agree. I think the line is, I think the simple answer here is the line is wrong. Okay. Let's go to Sunday night football. Cowboys at Giants sticking in the same division. Of course, with both guys healthy, predict the respective stat lines for CD Lamb and George Pickens in week one, including number of targets. I'm curious what you guys think the target share is going to look like. Fits will start with you. I'm going to make it a very close split of the workload. I'm going to say 11 targets for CD Lamb, seven catches for 93 yards in a touchdown, 10 targets for George Pickens, six catches, 90 yards and a touchdown. Do you think most games this season fits your expectations? These stat lines look very similar or do you think one of these guys will be ranked higher? It's going to be all over the place all season. Yeah. Okay. At the end of the year, do you think it'll be like very close to each other?

1:01:18Close to the rankings or do you think any guy will have separated? I think if they're healthy, they probably finish within four spots of each other in fantasy. Points scored. Okay. Debra. I went really nerdy with this. So on fantasy pros, we have a Dak Prescott projected for 35 passing attempts. If you look at the 12 games with CD and Pickens versus two high coverage, which the Giants have to Nard Wilson calling plays now, Tennessee, where he was previously over the last two years, ninth highest and two high rate. When CD and Pickens were on the field together last year, Lamb had a 23% target share versus two high. Pickens was at 19%. Moving this over back to Dak Prescott's 35 passing attempts. I think Lamb has eight targets, pickens seven, put them both in the range of 80 to 90 receiving yards and maybe both them get in the end zone here. When you said you were going to go nerdy, I was expecting to get like, all right. So I think CD's yards per out run is going to be I mean, I could give you yards per out run against too high. I could give you free shares, but for time, I was not going to. But I can. No, no, you're good. I do. Just quickly like on this

1:02:23receiving room, like, does any part of you think that like CD might become the clear number one again now that he's not dealing with the ankle injury stuff that he had last year or do you like, do you think the fact that this is looks like it might be close is because he was limited last year and he might elevate into a clear number one. Number two, or do you think it'll be a true one A1 B this season when both are healthy, Debra. I think that much to what Fitz was talking about now that the pickens previous years had massive DK Metcalf level splits versus single high and two high those splits closed the gap massively last year with the way Dallas used him. And again, back to the two high coverage to this point CD lamb 2.2 yards per out run in those 12 games versus two high George Pickens 1.9. I think that they are going to be very coverage specific single high matchups. You're going to see more pickens downfield shots too high. You're going to see more of CD lamb eating. So it's going to be very back and forth depending on the week. Every Sunday night football matchup, we're going to talk about our favorite bets from the prop bet cheat sheet of betting pros.com fits what's your favorite three or four star bet from the cheat sheet. It's a four

1:03:27star bet. It's David Montgomery over 54 and a half rushing yards. I just think Monty is going to be a big part of the Texans offensive game plan in what should be kind of a low scoring rock fight. And the bills give up the six most most rushing yards to running backs last season. They give up five yards per carry to running backs. Texans have upgraded their offensive line. I think Monty clears this bar. Debra, what's your favorite prop bet this week? I'm going to go with Isaiah likely. I'm going to stay in the Sunday night game on the prop bet cheat sheet. We're projecting the over for Isaiah likely as receiving yards. The line is 35 and a half. I'm taking the over there. I know that Dallas improved their defense a lot. Neighbors, is he 100% out the gate? You look at this matchup and I know they had a Caleb Downs and they had a lot over other plays pieces and parts on this defense. Isaiah likely could be the clear number two in this passing attack. And just if any of this crosses over this year, the Dallas Cowboys and weeks 12 through 18 last year give the fourth most yards per target to opposing tight ends. Those were our top prop bets for Sunday night

1:04:29football and for the rest of the week courtesy of the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. Find the best NFL player prop bets with a betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros.com slash props. One last game here guys Broncos at chiefs Monday night football. This is an obvious question to ask. Debra, how is Patrick Mahomes going to look in his first game back from injury up against a strong defense like Denver's? Dink and dunk very like just short area throws like he's looked for the last few years. Again, I think the ball is going to get out of his hands very, very quickly. A lot of underneath stuff, a lot of drag routes like usual for a fishy rice. I think we're to see some screens for Kenneth Walker. Really the impetus is going to be get the ball out of his hands. And I don't think we're going to see a ton of rushing from homes in this game. Where's Mahomes ranked for you, Debra? He's QB 20 in consensus. QB 20. Yeah, I got a minute to do. Yep. Okay. Fets, what do you think we're going to see out of

1:05:31Mahomes here in week one? I'm not wildly optimistic. I think he threw for what like 245 yards in his one game against Denver last week, but needed like 45 pass attempts to do it. One touchdown. Yeah, average like 6.1 yards per attempt. I just think it's kind of more of the same with your passing attempts. They're not going to let him drop back 45 times coming off that injury. So I've got him ranked QB 22. Fits, are you down on like all the chiefs players? Walker is, you know, I think are be 12. I want to say, you know, Rishi Rice is why are she 18? I'm a little below. I think I'm pretty consistently below consensus on every. Not way below consensus, but like basically one or two on just about every guy. I got Rishi Rice at White receiver 22. I've got Walker at RB or RB 12. Where's Kelsey at? Tightened 11. So yeah. Chiefs are favored by two and a half. And this one it is at arrowhead. I kind of like the Broncos plus the points. Yeah, that's the basic favor.

1:06:37Yeah, no Broncos. Yeah, I mean, I know it's the home is back in there at home, but like I kind of like that. It's given way too much favor to the chiefs in this game. Last question. The episode consensus total here is 43 and a half. I like the under. Do you guys agree or do you guys prefer the over? I like the under. I mean, I just, I'm going to go, you know, underson with a lot of this. I'm channeling my best injury. It's a week one. It's a good defense. It's my home's back from injury. Like, yeah, I mean, both lines, too. I mean, different type of injury, right? So yeah, I like the under here. Fits also under. I mean, you can most seasons, few just bet 16 under and week one. You're going to come out making a profit. I've already got two under my belt. So far, Erickson, I talked a lot about they don't call it the land down over. They call it the land down under. You have to take the under and last. That's okay. So we're off to a hot start there. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. I know we kind of spread it through the end. That we had a hard out today. Normally, we'll give a little more time to breathe in those later games. So hopefully everybody enjoys the show and as a good week one, best of luck in all your

1:07:40leagues here. And we are finally just a couple of days away from a full NFL Sunday. I absolutely can't wait for fits and Debro. I'm Ryan Warimley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok at fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros. Hi, this is highly breakman. Angel Jaretana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the artist on artists on artists on artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft.

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