NFL Week 1 Player Props: 10 Best Bets + Anytime & First TD Picks (Ep. 2184)

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human Welcome to Bedding Pros. This is the week one prop show. I'm Chris Welsch. That is Andrew Erickson. We are back for our believe us together is our third straight year. And we are going to be going through our top 10 favorite prop bets for week one. And then we're not going to even be done there. We got a little bit more. We're going to get back into the touchdown streets. We're going to be tracking them again this year. Little extra wrinkle on the touchdowns and because Andrew Erickson at and if Andrew Erickson asks you, you make it happen. First

1:06touchdowns. We are going to be putting a first our favorite first touchdown for the week at the bottom of the list. So if you guys want to play a guessing game, here is where it is. Every single week guess what second tight end on a team will be Erickson's big play. And you know, he's going to hit one or two and it's going to be big money. That's what we got in store for you here on the bedding pros prop show. I'm super stoked to be back with you, Erickson. I'm excited to dig into all these. I will say not feeling so great after I felt so good on wins and I football about about Rashid Shaheed. Thurson and football I felt so good about to join Stribbling. None of those are worked out. So I'm a little bit timid about the props we're going to release today. But we are coming right off of a Wednesday and a Thursday. And I game were both of our teams played. So I'm glad to be back in the streets with you brother. Yeah. I mean, there's so much NFL action happening right now. My mind can go in so many different ways. It's actually Friday here while we're recording. So I am on Australia time. You are still in the depths of September 10th on Thursday. So it must be nice. But we are here on Friday and I'm just reflecting

2:07on all the stuff that's happened. My two sleeper picks have totally bombed in back-to-back weeks with Rashid Shaheed. Bomb. Stribbling's already injured. So it's probably not going to be the sleeper this year. So the fantasy pro sleeper rankings not doing so hot. But on the betting pros card primer this week. Sweat the board on Thursday night football. A perfect five four five. The under of course that I was pounding table four since May essentially. It did cash despite the fact that before and hours look like they might cover it on their own because they just kept scoring so many points. I get the Rams defense that Miles Garrett was barely even playing in this game. So that's a bit of a shocker. But under 48 and a half points by Corm over 35 and a half rushing arts. He looked explosive. Caramelins under 13 and a half carries. Debo Samuel over two and a half catches. And of course the Mike Evans anytime touchdown on the beautiful fade. Oh, just absolutely gorgeous chefs. Kiss. So good Thursday night. Let's keep it rolling into the Sunday

3:09slate. Yeah. I mean, let's take those good vibes into this show. This is one of my favorite shows we do every single year every single week. I look forward to it. And I think it's one of the higher performing betting pro shows we do because we're talking props and we have a ton of fun with it. We'll get into ladders, Eric and I are super invested in it. And we want you guys to be as well. So please feel free in the comments. Drop some of your favorite props. You guys can talk about art. However you want to do it, we love to have your interaction and we'll take a look, especially if I can look in the comments and it's a safe space. I'll look and we can see if there's some fun props. You guys make it a not safe space and good order here. But if it's fun, we'll take a look. We'll see if you guys hit some killer props. But another way that you can do that is by downloading the betting pros app, we're not only is it going to give you so much great access to whether you're looking for smart money plays. You want to do some of the stuff we're talking about here where you can do the prop cheat sheet, the prop analyzer. You want to get into game picks. You want to have customized information, but you can also track everything when you sync your sports books with the betting pros app. You can track your progress. There's so many, so many

4:10great tools with it. Make sure you download the betting pros app. You can check out all the stuff we're talking about and have the entire slate at your fingertips. So without further ado, let's jump into this. We, as I mentioned before, we will be having a board, rather than not going to have a board right now, we're going to have a board tracking what our bets are. If we are, you know, rocking or if we're buns, we will have the touchdown marker where we'll be marking. This is the change this year. The correct touchdown calls, but we are also going to track the ROI on it just because, you know, Eric's in my drop us a 12 to one tight end and he deserves extra credit for that. So we'll be tracking those as well, trying to keep ourselves honest and, you know, whatever depression or excitement that's going to lead to. But we'll be tracking the board. We'll have that for you here. But let's jump into this. It's time for the top 10 prop bets and let's jump into number one with you, Mr. Andrew Erickson. Why don't you kick us off? I'm going with Jonathan Taylor over 76 and a half rushing yards at home against the

5:10Baltimore Ravens. It's weird. Usually what I do a lot of these player props, it's usually not the most marquee guys that I grabbed towards him. I was looking for these scrubby players with these really low under over or totals that I'm trying to, okay, he can just surpass this type of number. Usually I stay away from some of these bigger numbers. Yeah, we see to heed to Jean Striblin. Yeah, but I just, you know, for week one, I'm just going to start your studs, man. So I'm going to Jonathan Taylor here. Jonathan Taylor in his career playing at home in Indianapolis has average over 100 rushing yards per game. So this is where he's at his best. I look at this particular matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defensive front that I think is going to give up some decent rushing production. If you look at the Ravens last year, they gave up a lot of stuff on the ground, especially because they were dealing with a ton of injuries because of Mediboukai being hurt. He is still not even locked to play in week one because he's coming off that season ending neck

6:11injury and Clay's Campbell can only do so much as a four-year-old defensive tackle. That is the interior that's trying to stop arguably one of the best running backs in the NFL. We saw the Colts last year rely on Jonathan Taylor to start the season and given all the question marks we have about how's Dan Jones going to look coming off as a kill. What is the state of this wide receiver room with Alex Pierce, Michigan so much time? Keenan Allen, a little bit older, Josh Downs dealing with some injuries. I think that simple as maybe just give Jonathan Taylor a 30 touches and just let him run wild against this beatable Ravens defense when the Colts face Jesse Minter's defense last year when he was the defense coordinator for the Chargers Jesse Minter now the Baltimore Ravens head coach. They scored 38 points against them. It was the most points the Chargers had allowed all season. Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries for 94 yards and not one, not two, but three touchdowns for JT against the Chargers Jesse Minter's defense. So I think that he

7:11goes for 100 rushing yards here and the fact that his prop is at 76 and a half rushing yards seem kind of low to me. Usually JT I'm expecting to be in the 80s if not higher especially playing at home. So I want to take advantage of it. Give me JT. They're real in a sin. They want to say they want us to see those numbers and I completely agree with you. Also, if you take a look at like, trying to play it easy with Daniel Jones, like, are they going to want a lot of script? They're going to want to run the ball as much as possible. Control the clock, temper the injury stuff early on. Probably short line passes. I'm not sure this is like the best spot for Alex Pierce. I like it for Josh Downs and I like this for Jonathan Taylor. I want to say his reception prop is also something that the cheat sheet likes are the analyzer. So something we can kind of come back to. My first prop of the year and it's one kind of been talking about on lots of shows on the tailgate and a bunch of different places that I am very much into what the Chargers are going to do this year. I have taken on my inner D-bro without shaving my head yet and I fall in in love with Quentin Johnston

8:16and I really think as I've said, just a Gajillion times, like I think Mike Rick Daniel has this new toy that he's just like, wow, Mike, you know, he had a toy before but you know those toys that like their arms don't move and they're just like a still and then all this and you get an action figure and the arms move and then you can adjust the the elbows and you can make them do that's what he has now in Herbert from Tua. He had this broken just piece that stuck together and never did anything and now he can let this fly and who's the guy who's the perfect piece for them to let it fly? It's Quentin Johnston and I really like this spot. He's actually hit this marker in two of his last three games of the Chargers. I think they're going to like I said, big fly overall but also if you're looking from a matchup perspective, I respect what PFF does when you look at some of the matchup stuff. Cardinals, I mean obviously we're going to see the defense as go ranked 32 of 32. It's not the best quarterback matchups in general. So I think the Chargers are going to stop down on the cards. I think the Chargers are going to be able to establish a run in a play action and I think early on Quentin Johnston is going to be able to get one of those big long

9:19ones. Those 40 pluses. So his prop, I said all of that without saying his prop is 42.5. I love the 42.5. If you take a look over on betting pros, this is over projections. It's not in love with this like I am. It's not a five star better, anything like that. But his projections on betting pros are at 45. And I think there's a few other spots for projections are in favor of that. If you can find the line even a little bit lower in the 39s, that was a really good spot. But 42.5, I'm still with it because I think Quentin Johnson could do this in a one shot. So I am heavy in the streets on him. That one is sitting at, you know, like a standard like one minus one 14. Speaking of the cheat cheat, as mentioned before, you can find the best NFL prop bets with betting pros prop bet cheat cheat. If you don't want to go in and dig and do all that type of stuff, they are going to show you with a lot of analysis as well. Some of the best plays that is backed by so much great information and analysis. You can quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily projections to cover the props offering the most value makes smarter prop betting decisions. All

10:21season long at betting pros dot com slash props that's betting pros dot com slash props. Don't let me try to sell you want to go check it out for yourself and you decide highly suggest it. Number two in the props sheet. So obviously this is going to be three and four, but this is our second favorite props. Erickson, are you going to go with another over as the undertaker not jumped into, you know, and taken over you, you're jekyll and hide, you're jekyll and under taking the unders on the game totals this week, but not on all these player props because especially when we're talking about the lines and saints playing at Fordfield, the chorus field of the NFL, not every under is going to hit this week because the lines are having a home game and there's going to be points scored galore. John Johnson, tied in for the noron saints, is going to go over 42 and a half receiving arts playing at Detroit. He is a clear cut number two receiver on the Saints offense without Jordan Tyson in the lineup. Chris Alabe is the number one, but I think that you want Johnson just kind of being heavily underrated. This player last year was fifth and catches and third and receiving arts

11:26along all tight ends every single one and he was a complete afterthought and fantasy drafts until Jordan Tyson got injured. I think that this is a spot where Tyler Schuck, if he's going to be dropping back to throw 40 or 45 times while the lines are putting up a 30 burger on the Saints defense, we know, Kellan Moore likes to play fast in domes settings. They're going to run so many plays. There's going to be so many pass attempts that I think this is an easy number for Johnson to go over. For me, you look at he went over this number in five of his last eight games played and we saw him having much bigger role in terms of a target chair when the team moved on from Rashid Jihad when he was the clear cut number two, which is what I'm expecting in this particular matchup. So given the injuries to all of the line secondary pieces, they're still missing their two studs, safety's Kirby Joseph Brian branch those guys run the pup. They're not going to play and they're deploying some of the oldest cornerbacks in the NFL, Rockets and DJ Reed. I just think this is a great spot for Joanne Johnson to continue his chemistry with Tyler Schuck again. Remember, guys, remember, they played Oregon together. However many years ago that was. So they got the chemistry to on Johnson have faith

12:30in him this week. All right. This has been you talk about just kind of locking into our dudes. I'm going to lock into one of the dudes that you and I have been steadfast on. I think we were doing, what was it? We were doing our show, the extra point, which is kind of a podcast exclusive that we also doing discord and someone was asking us a Parker Washington question and they were just like, by the way, you two were so much higher than ECR and we're like, yeah, because we love the matchup. And I think Debrose and a really great breakdown. Make sure to check out the primer in that Parker Washington is set up for a really good matchup, specifically if he's going to have Miles Harden on him. PFF Grace Miles Harden who's covering out of the slot 106 out of 109 in cornerbacks. And obviously that's where Parker Washington is going to be. They're going to lock down the outside. That's why we don't like Brian Thomas. And this is a spot for Parker Washington to dominate to dominate. So what is the bet here? Well, check this out. We can get plus money on Parker Washington at five catches over 4.5 with a line of around plus 118. That's a consensus line. I saw on betting

13:31pros and this is a four star rated bet. Obviously not five, but a four star rated bet on the betting pros app. So there's some market EV percentage pluses. There's a projection EV plus on this. I'm all for this because you and I have been pretty locked in that we think Parker Washington is going to be the dominant player. The matchup says that the slot corner coverage. I'm obviously they can make some adjustments, but Harden is the slot cover guy. Parker Washington should be in this one. And they're going to slaying the ball a little bit. So you're getting plus money on five catches to a player that we think is a top 24 fantasy wide receiver. And if he's really going to dominate, this should be an easy number. And though the Browns defense carries a little bit more juice, it's not. You know, obviously Garrett is back. And as mentioned, there's a hole at the cornerbacks bot. And it is later the way he plays. So 4.5 receptions over at plus money for Parker Washington. That is my second and one of my favorites on this card. We've got three more each that are coming up, but I want to talk to you guys about polymarket.

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16:35Pops three. So we're four and five, four and five for us. But our third on the list is we're each going to be giving you five. And we are going to stick with some overs. So we're going to jump back into you. This is the most arixin of arixin dudes all season long. I would have been disappointed in you. There's a long standing player that is ours. Our mascot of the show is who? Don't say this guy. You know who the mascot is. Jalen Waddle. Thank you. I wasn't rhetorical. I wanted you to say it. Jalen Waddle is the mascot. And Jalen Waddle leaves this team to I think what is like your mascot for tight end drafting this year. So you've got a tight end in the prop market that you really like. Greg Dahlsich, tight end for the Miami Dolphins, potentially the last man standing of the past catchers over 24 and a half receiving arts. A very low number because we're not exactly sure how the targets the pecking order is going to shake out in this dolphins receiver room. They're going to

17:36be starting two rookie wide receivers between Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell along with Malik Washington. That's probably going to be the starting three set. Greg Dahlsich is the most accomplished out of all those guys, considering two of them are rookies and I never played in the NFL. So he went over this number his last five games played with the Miami Dolphins last season. Remember Bobby Slavic, the new officer coordinator for the Miami Dolphins. He was with the team last year. So he saw Greg Dahlsich be productive when they featured him a little bit more in the passing game. He also went over 21 and a half receiving arts and all but one of his last nine games played. So he's been consistently hitting around this number and just given the fact that there are no dominant target earners in this Miami Dolphins offense. I think this is a good opportunity for him to step up, create some yards out of the catch and a game that I know that losing Brock Bauer is definitely poor. Some cold water on Fizz's take that this game would go over 15 and a half points but I still think that just based on how bad both defenses are. This could be one of those like gross vomit,

18:36stack type of games where it actually is kind of fun because no one in defense can stop anybody on offense, even if it's Kirk cousins. So I like Dahlsich to go over this number specifically looking at the matchup looking at the Raiders linebackers in safety room. Isaiah Polomovu, PFF's fourth worst grade coverage safety last season. He's going to be starting Jeremy Chin allowed the eighth highest pass rating when targeted last season for the Raiders and Kuei Walker, their new acquisition at linebacker allowed the fifth most yards as a coverage linebacker in his last season with the Green Bay Packers. Jeff Hathley is from Green Bay. He knows how to attack a guy like Kuei Walker. I think he's going to do that with somebody like Greg Dahlsich. You're going to see the hair flowing as those is running down a leeching stadium to yeah, it's going to be a lot of fun. Cache and by the way on betting pros, this is a four star bet. So, you know, anytime you can try to track and get that four or five star, there's a lot of backing, EV plus on this line might move a little bit as well. But it has moved. It was at like 16 when it first opened up. It's like 26 right now. The consensus line on betting pros is we're recording this

19:40and you got a 24. So I got a like 16 and a half. I got a Chris Bell guy and I don't see a lot of Chris Bell stuff out there. So that's going to be one of those late ones. I'm in but I'm totally down with this and you know, let's see if there's actually points being scored. We'd be tough to watch this one. Thank God. The red zone is built for games like this and then the Jets and Titans because that's the only way that they're getting any numbies. All right. My third one, this is one I put on the fantasy side. I did kind of a start and sit short. I talked about this guy, but I'm pretty pro Rico Doudel and I think this is one of the bigger projection versus line numbers that we have out here. I'm betting pros is the four star bet and I'm looking at the rushing yards and I'm going over 42.5 on Rico Doudel's over that line 42.5 is the consensus. Maybe there's even some others flowing down there a little bit lower, but the projections have got them at 52 are fantasy pros projection. So there's a nice cushion that's sitting out there. Also, if you're looking defensively, the defensive line, if you're again looking at kind of coverages, they're a bottom 10 defense, not

20:45even probably countering just all of the issues with injuries and misplayers. I don't think on paper, it shows the problem that this defense really might end up being, but defensive line rating is bad. Like I said, bottom 10, ish, bottom 10, 12 in the league. I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to try to play the ball on the ground as much as they possibly can and they got a new toy in Rico Doudel. Jaylen Warren is going to get his, but I feel relatively confident you're going to see a heavy dose of doubt. By the way, if you look at the rushing attempt number, it's a kind of heavy juiced at 11.5. So if they're projecting that we're going to go over 12 here, 12 to 13, I just got to get 42 from Rico Doudel. He is going to run on these Falcon. So this is again, this is one of my favorite ones. It's kind of a lower number. This actually, what, oh, you know what, I think I think I actually, this actually moved. It was a five-star bet. It was one of the top ones at one point. I think it might have changed, but it was the number two in running back EV on the betting pros cheat sheet. If you go and check that out, still pretty high up in the streets. There's still a

21:46five four star, but it just moved down a little tiny bit, but I love me some Rico Doudel. Number four, four on the list here. Will the Undertaker rise? Yes, he will. Jaylen Hartz is going to finish under 29.5 Pascantemps. This is one, this is a market that I've been pretty good on using the prop bet cheat sheet. The unders on Pascantemps, the unders on Russian attempts. I feel like this is a good sweet spot for the prop bet cheat sheet, specifically with the ones that I look at. Hartz in this matchup against the Washington commanders, I don't think that the commanders have much of a chance in this particular game. I think that the Eagles defense is going to swarm and overwhelm Jayden Daniels in this bad offensive line. They're playing at home. Eagles home games tend to lean towards the under and given that it is a new offense for Jaylen Hartz with Sean Manion. Again, Sean May, it's coming from the Green Bay Packers coaching tree where what's the biggest

22:48complaint we have with these Green Bay coaching staff is let your love cook man. No, it's like we've got to run the ball. We got to run the ball. I think that's what you're going to see in this game. It's going to be a lot of safe one, Barclay. He's healthy and ready to go. The offensive line is healthy and ready to go. I think it's interesting when you look at the game splits, what you can do on betting pros. If you take Lane Johnson, make sure that he's in the lineup. Hartz has gone under 29 and a half fasking ups in seven of his last 10 starts when Lane Johnson is healthy because they'd like to run the football when they have their stud right tackle in there. I think in this particular matchup again, this is a five star bet of the prop bet cheat sheet based on the projected game on the community something really crazy and force the Eagles to be pass heavy. I just don't think that's going to be the case here. I think it's going to be a run heavy approach. So the projections also great. They've heard for 27 pass attempts. So I'm taking the under. Did you happen to use the with or without tool on fantasy pros when you did that? Was that part of your process that you just

23:49said? So I didn't use the with or without you tool on fantasy pros because I use the betting pros one, which is similar in a couple different ways, but specifically to because I was looking at like fantasy points, I was looking at attempts and I wasn't able to to pull that there, but I'm sure that's also accessible on the fantasy pros tools. Well, and I have a little reason I also I'm talking about that because the next one I'm going to go I'm going to go with another over. Remember, is it the over the undertaker and is it the over here? Is I'm going to go with Michael Mayer and I'm going to go with his receiving yards over 39.5. Obviously, there's no Brock Bower's here. juice is kind of normal, but specifically this tool we have, which if I don't remember what the short link is, but if you type in like with or without splits fantasy pros with or without split, that tool instantly come up. And I did as the news came down a Michael Mayer without Brock Bower's. And when you know it, take away fantasy points for a second. He averages when Bower's is not in the lineup. And this isn't, you know, even to this new offense around six targets and averages are

24:51on 49 yards. It's like four point something catches and 49 yards. Well, guess what? His receiving total in this game is 39.5. So I think this is a good spot where they got no receivers. I mean, I don't mind trade Tucker in this, but this is not a good defense from the dolphins whatsoever. Bonds, as you would say, there's not a whole lot of offense weapons, especially of astringentious out there. And Michael Mayer is proven to be a really solid tied in so much so that a lot of fantasy people's consensus is a top 10 tied in this week. So I can also present to you the tool without Brock Bower's he smashes this line. So regardless of where, you know, projections are on obviously like the Betty Pros projection isn't in there. But guess what? It actually likes the over is a five star bet this week for Michael Mayer over receiving yards. So that's one that I am going to be stabbing here 39.5 over Michael Mayer on the receiving yards for my fourth prop that and that is going to take us to our final one here. And you're going to jump into the tight end

25:52market and I just as a tease have my first under of the year as well. So why don't you kick us off with your final prop. You got to have an under at least one on the show. There's no way any of us are ever going to hit five overs. Well, I've I've definitely done five overs on it. I don't think I hit all of them. Exactly. Exactly. That's why you got to throw in under just for good measure. You got to please the prop gods. Jake Ferguson under three and a half receptions. This is a Sunday night football prop going to New York to take on big blue. This one's pretty simple where it goes down to the splits when Jake Ferguson has played. I didn't use the fantasy pros with or without you tool for this particular one. When Jake Ferguson has played with CD land George pickets and Ryan Florentine in lineup. He averages under this number. And it's a pretty large sample size of when he has played with those particular players. So Ferguson is an afterthought. I think when those other guys are healthy in the lineup. I also expected Dallas Cowboys can be able to run the football pretty effectively against a Dexter Lawrence less giant defense. I think

26:54Javonte Williams is going to have a monster game top five fantasy option this week. So I think Jake Ferguson just kind of be me this week. So under three and a half catches. All right. My final one. I am going to go to the Monday night game. And I will be backed by I'm you know heavy into betting pros here on the cheat sheet this week. This is a five star bet. And this had the highest EV return. You can sort by EV here. And Xavier worthy under receiving yards was the top play. It is under 38.5 with a betting pros projection of 31.5. So absolutely all about this one. And kind of with it. There's I think there's a lot of questions around Patrick Mahomes and what the offense looks like. You're adding bat. You got where she writes. You got Travis Kelsey. You're adding in Cyrus Allen who I don't think is not nothing. And you got Ken Walker. And I think you're obviously going to they're going to see a heavy dose of Ken Walker. Now the one caveat could be is if Denver starts to put this game away in some capacity and they're throwing a whole lot more. We know worthy can definitely get to this marker. But I am going to play this under the I think two of his last three. He has not been

27:58able to go over this. He's not a feature piece of this offense. At least anymore. At least I'm going to learn otherwise and you know, end around to what not. But I like this. I like the five star bet. So I'm going to play the under 38.5 receiving yards with a nice cushion on the betting pros projection. And that are our 10 five a piece prop bets for week one. Now can Xavier worthy hit this number or will he hit this over that is the question to ask. And the answer is no. So no. Oh, you're with me. Do you like this one? Yes. Yes. I think with a lot of these boomer bus receivers. It's proven man. Prove that you can go over 38.5 receiving yards because I know we hold it in the back from mine. I like he's a deep threat. Like he's going to come down with a catcher. Like when I was staring at one of the props. I was looking at Xavier LeGat. I'm like, this guy really going to catch two passes. Yeah. Were these not going to get me with volume by the way? I don't think he's going to kill me with volume. You're going to kill me with one big plug. I just I just stared at the Xavier LeGat one and a half receptions probably probably for like two minutes thinking this guy can't catch cold man.

29:02Like so. I can't get that. I was thinking about. I was like, but it's the bear's even it's the bear's deep. It's just a matter who he's playing. Just these subpar wide receivers keep it in the runners. Prove make them prove it to you that they're going to beat you. So I think that this is a good process. But hey, it is week one. It's a lot of proving ground stuff. We have to we're citing kind of like last year things. We've got to see what these off inches are going to look like. I mean, hell, I've never talked to Bogman before the Thursday night football game and we share a big league we do with DVR from athletic and it's I've told you about it. It's like you got to do a DFS lineup and you got to do picks and you got to do survivor and all this and the picks were in. I had put the Patriots in the wins in that game. He was against me, but I took it. He did not want to take my night. He told me he's like, the Rams are going to annihilate the Niners. And I'm like, all right, man, I'm like three and a half of the Niners as a play. So, you know, I thought the Niners deep into be buns and we just have got to we've got to see these playouts. So in that is sometimes you're going to have to be proven wrong in this and I'm using that story to kind of agree with you on

30:03the Xavier worthy. And that takes us to touchdowns. We are going to be making two touchdown calls a piece and a first touchdown. That's a new added edition. But we want to tell you guys we've got a really, really great thing for you to check out when you were setting in your touchdowns. It's betting pros.com slash touchdown. That's the touchdown score report. If you're looking for an edge in touchdown bets, this is your place. Our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets. Head to betting pros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis. Do it today. And that is going to take us to our two touchdowns. Our kind of theme that we are going to be going with this year is we're going to have kind of one lock-ish type of guy. I don't want to say lock-ish because I got to be honest with you. The two guys we picked that are under plus 150 or not exactly locks are not big names. But essentially it's an under plus 200 and then an over 200. That over 200 might get wild. In this case, they're both around two and a half to one. So that's

31:06going to be kind of the theme in the vibe of how we do our touchdowns. So Erickson, your two touchdown calls for week one are who? John Johnson at plus 240. I talked about how much I like him in this particular matchup going up against the Detroit Lions with their injured secondary taking the over on his receiving yards. It's interesting when you look at the total amount of yards and catches that John Johnson had last year. The reason he hasn't had as much publicity when it comes to his tight end ranking offense because he only scored three touchdowns last year. Like that's kind of what held him from actually cracking the top 12 despite having really strong yardage and reception numbers. Basically, only Justin Jefferson was worse in terms of scoring touchdowns last year based on the amount of volume that they saw. You look at the way that the Saints offense is constructed. Travis HN is not a great red zone runner. Alvin Camera is an aging asset to this team. Jason Hill is no longer part of this team. So I think it was an actual big red zone opportunity for John Johnson to step up without Jordan Tyson in the lineup. So I think that he is prime for

32:10some positive touchdown regression. And when you're playing at four field, that's where you're going to score a lot touchdown. So I think John Johnson's going to score this week. And I think he's going to score a lot this season to be honest. So he's my number one. And then Rico Dattle, a player that you like, I think of all your props that you listed out the Rico Dattle one that stood out to me the most as an absolute layup at 42 and a half rushing yards when he is set up so well in a perfect type of game script where they're playing at home against the Falcons team that to a gut hurt on Thursday. There's a chance that it's Cooper Rush or Jack Strand out there playing on the road in Pittsburgh. Mike McCarthy knows Cooper Rush because he coached him in Dallas. So he knows his weaknesses. And I think that they're not going to overthink it. And there's going to feed Uncle Rico to his heart's desire. I don't know if you can pull it up. But did he face the Falcons last year in a bellcal role? Did we get to see that last year for Rico? Because obviously he was with the Panthers. But I know that he didn't get unleashed until the second half of the season will be curious to see how he played in those games. But regardless. So wait, what do you want? You want when he did he go against the Falcons?

33:11The Falcons, yeah. Because he I do have it up here. He did. Oh, he did go against the Falcons. He was. Yeah, it was week three where he had 10 attempts for only 30 yards. So that wasn't special. And he did have 19, but it was for only 45 against the Falcons. So they were kind of underwhelming. But the defense that the Falcons are now putting out there is much worse. And I would agree much worse. And it would have been super cool, by the way, if it was one of those like 200 yards, like that would have been such a good correlation. I just don't remember which games that that happened in. But we know that once you get Rico going, he is a freight train. So I think that he is a good bet to score. I think process wise, I always find it interesting when a running back that I think it's probably the safer bet to see the majority of red zone attempts for the Pittsburgh Steers. I think that's more of Rico Dallas. Prof another say that Jaylin Lawrence never going to score a touchdown. But I think that's probably where we go doubt it will get the nod over Jalen Warren. Stealers, home favorites,

34:16starting running back in the red zone at plus mighty score touchdown, right? Like that shouldn't be. Those types of bets are ones that I think are really good value because if you look at every other home team favorite, they're starting running back. It's all minus. It's all in minus. Jamira games minus 370. So I think that this is a good process. Play with Rico. All right. I have made a change on what of mine. And I'm disgusted with myself because the number is actually just so good and to think that I can get this at a better number. I'll meet this transparency. I had Quentin Johnston on this list. I still love it. I still believe in him. It was plus 140. But I am making the adjustment because Jamis and Williams is plus 180. I'm getting better odds on that. By the way, Jared Goff for two touchdowns is like minus 200. So like we're in the lock to touchdown market. This is such a good spot for Jamis and Williams. And we know how he plays. Catch it at his ankles, run 50 yards, bam touchdown score and win. I just think

35:18these are really almost two to one on Jamis and Williams in this matchup going up against the Saints. I'm all for it. And then my long shot one is kind of gross with myself. A trade talker. I mentioned like, yes, I think Michael Mayer is going to get volume. But this dolphins defense is bad. If there is before this injury of Bowers, you had amazingly smart people like Fitz talking about how we might have a ton of scoring because of these defenses. Well, that one thing isn't going to change everything. Trade Tucker is still going to be going up against those cornerbacks. And he's got big breakaway speed. And I think he's the guy that is going to single himself out as their main wide receiver. So points being scored. I'm getting around two and a half to one. I'm picking trade Tucker. That's a deep name. Jamis and Williams and trade Tucker on the anytime touchdown for me. Rico Dattle and John Johnson for you. And then our newest addition to in this out is our first touchdown. This is Erickson's probably favorite market. I have definitely had some fun because I've hit some big smash. As nothing feels better than when you get it. But they're big giant odds. So you got to be careful with it. We are each going to pick one. And I will say

36:21the prime time games as you you've said a million times. It's the best thing to bet a first touchdown is in the prime time games because you're hyper focused. But because we're doing the entire slate, you're going to get one player. They got us score first. So which backup tight end is it? And how bigger the odds? Well, I don't know if this is a backup tight end. Charlie Colar plus 2000 to score the first touchdown for the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals game expecting the charges to score a boatload of points in this particular matchup. So I think Charlie Colar is going to see red zone opportunities. And I think that just based on what we saw during the preseason that he's going to probably play the most snaps out of the tight ends in that room ahead of David and Joe. Ahead of a Ronda Gatson. And they like him from a blocking perspective. So yeah, I think that play action. You're going to see him running the back of the end zone. And Charlie Colar is going to come down with the first touchdown and gets the Arizona Cardinals. So that's my bet here. Arizona was also really bad against tight ends last year. They're at the bottom five unit across the board. No, Jim, Jonathan, Jonathan again is no longer the

37:25Deves Accoordinary there. But the guy that they promoted to Deves Accoordinary was with Arizona the last couple of years under Jonathan again. And Michael Ford kind of retained him. So I wouldn't expect them to be a judder not against tight ends in any way. She had performing Charlie Colar. They paid. They liked him a lot. And he's an underrated receiver. So a 20 to one, especially two, because when I think back to the first time I got into these first touchdown bets, it was Donald Palm, Jr. Catching the first touchdown from Justin Herbert. Like that was the first time I was like, this is unhooked. I had a prime time one. It was one of the two Monday ones. And I hit both game ones. I hit Isaiah likely. And I'm forgetting who it was like Keenan Allen, I think. I think it was like Keenan Allen. And Isaiah likely I hit it. And I think I like immediately text you. And it was like some absurd. It was one of those where you're disgusted with yourself. You're like, why didn't I put $2,000 on this? I'd be rich. I put it $2. I did. I put my mortgage on. Yeah. I rared in first touchdown on Wednesday. I football. You get so excited. Then you're like, oh, I got it. Put $8 on this. What an idiot. But it's like, you know, the odds. I like yours.

38:30Mine, I fall in love with, I gotta be honest with you. There's two guys in this game. If I could play both of these and you get great odds for it. If I were going on the Viking side, I think Dernadasen is really fun. But my official pick is going to be Matthew Golden. And Matthew Golden is at 19 to one. I mean, just barely under your Collar one. And you know, Golden steps into like a much bigger spot from a cornerback matchup perspective. It is as a little bit tougher. But if you got Pierre Locking down Watson, that's going to leave opportunities. And you know, Golden can play the bigger route tree. And he can go and he can play the deep ball. So I think Golden isn't a really good spot here. Let Jordan love cook. We see that here. 19 to one first touchdown for Matthew Golden. So Charlie Collar Golden for the first touchdowns, Tucker, James of Williams, John Johnson, Errico Dotto for the touchdowns. Who are yours? Drop them in the comments below for your favorite touchdown calls. Love to see. We got to see some first touchdowns. We will celebrate you. If you got time stamp it before the games, if you hit one, Erickson will look in the comments. And then we will pull I'm not going to do it. And then we'll

39:34pull out if anybody hits it and we'll celebrate them and give you some kudos and we'll check out how we did next week. That's going to do it, man. That's it. Week one is here. Make sure to download the betting pros app. Prop Bet cheat sheet is going to be your friend, prop bet analyzer for any that you want to check out as far as like the star ratings we've talked about any of the data. Download the betting pros app. And I really highly suggest you get premium on it. Go and you know whether it's just sinking in for sportsbook and making your life easier there or checking out all the great tools. Like I said, don't let me try to sell you on it. Go and check it out for yourself. Highly highly suggest you do it. And make sure you come back with us here. We'll be back next week. That is it. That is all that we did you have another thing? You want to finger one last thing. One last thing to send the people off on. Remember how much money you would have made if you bet on Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown every single week. Okay. So this is the famous rollover idea where if Christian McCaffrey, what was it like 12 straight weeks? You'd be like a millionaire if you bet. And then you took your money and you rolled it over and you did it again. Okay.

40:35So what's what's the theme here? I want to do that with Jemere Gibbs this year. I think that's the play. I think that without Dave Montgomery, the fact that they have the easy schedule in the NFL, Jemere Gibbs is going to be having a second home in the end zone to see how many weeks do you going to do this? What do you want to make a commitment? I mean, I'm going to take. Well, you're these just scores 17 straight. I honestly would not surprise me if he scores 30 touchdowns. You have to cash out a 10. If it gets to 10, you got to cash out 10 weeks in a row. Yeah. I might do that with Mike Evans, by the way, because Mike Evans is on his way. So just he's way scarier with that because you know, he's going to miss some games in the hamstring. All right. All right. So okay, we're going to do that. Let's have a official ticker if we can. We'll tell people on here bet on Gibbs. I will tell you we'll do. We'll have production this by the way, this segment might die next week if he doesn't score this weekend, but we'll have the Jemere Gibbs roll over maybe like right here. There'll be like a little Jemere Gibbs. I graph them. I think you bank every time the money goes a piggy bank with Jemere Gibbs is face on it. Like as long as that's like I think

41:38that's the play. All right. Well, we'll let the production figure it out. We'll play the roll over. Let's see what that looks like. There's a fun way to end it. Have some fun with us this year. We want to make some money. We also want to have some fun with it. And hopefully you guys are getting some stuff out of it. So make sure you're subscribed to betting pros. Make sure you guys are here next week. And we will talk to you with all of the early lines and everything else right here on betting pros for Andrew Erickson. I'm Chris Wells. Good luck going to money. We'll talk to you next time. Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok at betting pros and Instagram at betting pros and FL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash betting pros. This is the story of the one as a shipping manager. He's running the dock, stocking supplies, and making sure every order goes out on time. And Granger helps him stay prepared.

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