GUTS: Nolan McLean Keeps NL ROY Hopes ALIVE with Gritty Start | Can Really CATCH Sal Stewart?!

0:00This is the Lockdown Podcast Network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. Now I'm McLean, Captain's NL Rookie of the Year hopes to live with a gutsy quality start on Friday night. The question now can South Stewart really be caught? You are locked on, Max. You're daily New York Metz Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello to all you amazing Metz fans. You're listening to Lockdown. Matt, I'm your host Ryan Ficklestein and on today's show, we're talking about a gritty start by Noel McLean and offensive onslaught by the Metz. We're going to break down the gaming in the first segment. In the second segment, I want to talk about the historical precedent of South Stewart's Rookie of the Year campaign and is it too much for McLean to overcome?

1:01That in the final segment, we'll talk about the road ahead for the New York Metz in particular. The fact that Jonah Tongue is officially coming back and joining this rotation, what does that mean for the Metz over these final few weeks of the season? Before we get to any of that though, today's episode is brought to you by a fan and do a little college football Saturdays, are already packed with reasons to get excited in this season. Bandos, gaming fans, even more ways to get in on every matchup, join all the action at bandwool.com. Now, the New York Metz started off this game with just an offensive onslaught against the giants. Bottom of the first inning, Mark Vientos, had a three run homer driving in Francisco Lendor who had singled in Boba Shet who had drawn a walk. In the second end, the Metz would tack on four more runs as Francisco Alvarez left the yard. Nick Morabito drew a walk Francisco Lendor reached on an error that put runners at the corners for Juan Soto as Morabito had previously advanced on a bulk. Soto grounded out, a trade of place with Lendor so it was not a double play and Morabito

2:06came around to score on the ground out and then Boba Shet capped off the four run rally with a two run homer driving in Soto. Now, the Metz would tack on two runs in the bottom of the sixth inning on a home run by Francisco Lendor that another run in the eighth inning on a home run by Francisco Alvarez, his second of the day, 15th of the season. Francisco Alvarez now has seven multi-home run games in his career which matches Gary Carter for a second all time before catch return 25. He was Johnny Bench, who has the record with eight multi-home run games. Thanks to those five home runs, the Metz scored 10 runs on nine hits and they gave no McLean plenty of run support. It was not a walk in the park for the Metz rookie Ace. The first two innings largely were. He issued a walk in the first but retired. The other six batters that he faced. The third inning started to get hit around a little bit. He issues a lead off, actress me. There's a one out walk. Then Drew Gilbert gets a base hit to put runners at the corner of Seroffield, Devers, and

3:07Devers doubled in both. Now, McLean picked up a strikeout. Then he issued a walk before finally getting out of the jam, stranding a runner in scoring position. The fourth inning gives up back-to-back single-sleeve things off. He then gets a big strikeout, a ground out, and then Drew Gilbert hits the ball very hard on a rope. But it was right on Nick Morabito and McLean gets through the fourth. The fifth inning, Rafael Devers doubles yet again. McLean issues a walk and then a base hit. Devers, if he was a little faster, maybe scores on that base hit. Also, he had Carson Bench fielding that ball and he's got a cannon. That kept all the runners in place there. Base is loaded. Nobody out. John Hoolie coming up. I said this after he gets through the inning, not to be hyperbolic, but in that inning, the rookie of the race could have ended. Because if Noel McLean gives up a base clearing double to John Hoolie, it's over. His chances of getting his E.R.R.

4:09are under three by the end of the season end up dropping significantly. It's going to be very hard at that point for him to overcome this. And really, for Noel McLean to win this award, we'll talk about more in the next segment, he has to be perfect. He has to leave a lasting impression on voters with this final month of the season. And if he has one start mixed in where he gives up five run runs, it's done. It's done. What does he do? He goes right after John Hoolie throws a sinker, honest, and right down Broadway. But Lee is taking so he gets strike one. He throws a curveball, lowing in, Lee fows it off. He's a head-o-two. And instead of trying to waste a pitch, he goes right after him. He throws that front hip sinker that he loves. Although this one was more like a front shoulder sinker on John Hoolie. So it starts at the top of the zone. It's up and in on him. And starts probably a little bit outside the zone high. But that sinker just breaks right into the zone, honestly, right down the middle.

5:12Up a really tough pitch to believe at 96 miles per hour. And he just completely buckles John Hoolie gets the strike out. And then throws another sinker to the next batter that ends up turning into two outs. A double play ball. Marcus Simmy and Mixer are really nice sliding stop. And then a backhanded flitzel in door who completes the double play. Stranding the bases loaded for no one to play. Unbelievable. You know, outing just off of that. Just fourth inning you give up two hits to lead things off. You navigate the traffic fifth inning. You load the bases with nobody out and find your way through it. And that would have been the time you would think to end the day for Noelle McClain. He was already over 90 pitches. You could have given a handshake said it's over. But McClain asked for the sixth inning. He said that's after the game. He asked his manager Andy Green for the sixth inning. And Andy told him, I'll give you three batters. And Noelle McClain confidently said back, that's all I need. And that was all he needed.

6:13And 11 pitch final inning a one two three frame picked up a strikeout to end his night. His seventh strikeout. And he came off the mound roaring with just all of that energy that he put into this start. If you think Noelle McClain doesn't know where he's at in the season of what he's gunning for, he didn't watch that start because he knows what's in sight. And it's not going to be an easy award for him to win. He said after the game, everybody wants to win awards. All I'm trying to do is help them. That's wind based bug games. It's the right answer. I don't think it's accurate. Noelle McClain has his site set on the rookie of the year. And he's got a chance for it. We've already laid out the case in this show many times. For those of you who haven't heard that case that he needs to get to, the way Noelle McClain wins this rookie of the year, he strikes out 200. And with seven strikeouts, he made a lot of work up in that regard. He didn't again improve his ERA. That's one thing where he could almost say he held serve with this start.

7:15But the strikeouts was big. So now he's 21 strikeouts away with four starts remaining. He's 23 and a third innings away from 185. That's another benchmark that you'd like him to get to. And then he needs to get that ERA under three. It can't be, I mean, it's like a 297. I think Noelle McClain needs to get that ERA in the two eights, maybe even the two sevens, which would require him to have a couple scoreless outings coming up here where he gives up nothing. And we can see that ERA drop by 0.15 with each start, which is kind of what we saw prior to this outing. His last two, his ERA went from 3.34 down to 3.06. Now it maintained there. He's going to need even better over these next four starts. And again, it could have gotten away from him with one of those innings going sideways. And he was able to hold on to it, complete the quality start and lied to find another day in this rookie of the ERAs. I thought it was a really, again, gutty performance from Noelle McClain. I'm excited to see what the next one looks like.

8:15The bullpen did not pitch great. Jeffrey Young gave a run on a couple of hits in a walk. Austin Warren bailed him out. Then Warren gave up a throw in Homer and Rafael Devers in the eighth inning. Robert Stock came in, got the final out of the eighth. He did give it a double before getting them final out. And then Kodai sang a pitch of scoreless ninth. He did issue a two out walk, but otherwise a clean inning for saying to finish off the game. The fact that Robert Stock pitched that told us that Jonah Tongue would make a start this week. Indigree confirmed that. So again, we're going to go through that in the final segment. What I want to talk about next is South Stewart. I've never seen a lot of articles come out right now. Send it South Stewart has this award locked up because historical precedent would suggest if you hit 30-year runs and you drive in 100, you win the rookie of the year. I'm going to talk about that history next and why it makes some sense, but South Stewart's 30 and 100 doesn't quite measure up to some of the other members in MLB history.

9:17College football fans is trying to put your knowledge of the test with College football pick them from Fandall. Each week you can make 10 free against the spread picks and finish with one of the week's top pick totals. And if you do, you can win a share of $500,000 in bonus bets. There's no entry free and no wage required. Just make your picks based on your College football knowledge and see how you stack up and the competition doesn't stop there. Make your picks before kick off, follow the live leaderboard throughout Saturday and see if you can out pick names like Wilcombe, Tailouin and Josh Pate. If you do, if you beat any of them, you'll unlock a profit boost to use on Fandall, down the Fandall app and play College football pick them for free only on Fandall is a Fandall.com to get started. Today's episode is brought to you by the Dell XPS. I'm Wes Goldberg from Locked On NBA Daily and Locked On Heat. So what does it feel like to have a better laptop like the Dell XPS powered by Intel Core? With a premium design that's thin and light, it feels smooth.

10:20With a responsive touch screen, it feels fast and precise. And with long lasting battery life, it feels like non-stop energy with a laptop that can keep up. Built for those who want better, the Dell XPS. Built for you. So, watching on YouTube today, do me a favor, hit that subscribe button. I'll post a closer to your next goal of 18,000 subscribers. I'd love to get there by the end of the season. I appreciate all of you who continue to subscribe. Now, there has been nine rookies in MLB history who have hit 30 home runs and have driven in 100. All nine of those rookies have won rookie of the year. This is an award that predominantly goes to hitters. It believes 65% of the time it has gone to hitters.

11:21And it's an award that really values the traditional statistics. Home runs, RBIs, in the past, wins were really valued. This is how the award has always been determined. And again, nine times in MLB history, a hitter has got to 30 in 100. They've all won rookie of the year. So, does that mean that this is over? I took a deep dive into those nine cases. And I was just curious, which year was most similar to South Stewards campaign? And was there a runner up that was close? What I found is you look at these nine cases and some of them really are not comparable to South Steward. You have Walt Dropo, who hit 34 home runs and drove in an MLB leading 144 runs in 1950. I will say one other caveat. I think it was Dropo and Mark McGuire that led to league and RBIs as rookies and both those guys obviously won.

12:22The South Steward leads the league and RBIs and last I check he still is, he's going to win. Slam Dung, no doubt about it. If he leads Major League Baseball, RBIs as rookie, his got the award in the bag. And as we'll kind of get into more, he really needs to have a bad September and McLean needs to have an awesome September for McLean to actually win this thing. But again, that was Dropo, that was 1950. That year, Whitey Ford was a rookie. He came in second, Pistula 2, 8, 1, ERA and 112 winnings, not that much volume. 1987, Mark McGuire hit 49 and drove in 118. Actually, I don't know if he did lead league in RBIs, it was 118, but regardless, he was a unanimous rookie of the year, no pitch or finished top five hit a 987 OPS. And Walt Dropo had a 961 OPS for context. South Steward, as we'll talk about it a bit to kind of show you where I'm leading this thing. South Steward's OPS, let me see what it is after tonight's game. He's down to 819 after a one for four game where he did pick up another RBI.

13:24So 819 OPS for South Steward. So keep that in mind as you go through the rest of these names. 1993, a name that met fans like a lot and I believe it was his birthday on Friday. Mike Piazza, he won as a Dodger, a seven win season based on war, 35 home runs, 112 RBIs, another unanimous winner, a 932 OPS. 2001, Albert Pouls hit 37 home runs, drove in 130 at a 6.6 war according to baseball reference, and his OPS was over 1000. Roy Oswald was second that year, he had a 273 ERI, went 14 and three, struck out 144, but was not close to bullholes who again had the OPS over 1000 was unbelievable. Jose Braieu for the White Sox in 2014, 36 home runs, 107 RBIs, another unanimous MVP, he had a 964 OPS. Aaron Judge in 2017 set the rookie home run record with 52, drove in 114 runs, had an OPS over 1000, unanimous winner, Peter Lonzo should have been unanimous, 53 home runs

14:30to set the record a year after two years after Judge did, 129 RBIs, 941 OPS, got 29 of 30 votes, Mike Soroka got the other vote, a 268 ERI and 174 into 30, pitched. The two cases that are really comparable to South Stooner, guys that had rookie of the year seasons that were predicated on home runs and RBIs, but the OPS was not at the level of these other seven cases where all those other guys had OPS's over 900 and a lot of them, well over 900. Again, 819 OPS for South Stooner, it does not stack up the judge or Lonzo or Braieu or pools or piaz or McGuire or Walt Droppo who I learned about tonight. You go to the two cases that do, you know, stack up and do, you know, make some sense to compare Ron Kiddell in 1983 and 35 home runs drove in 188 OPS. Now he won that award, Julio Franco came in second, Franco had a 693 OPS, this is back

15:32where we were looking at batting average and RBIs, that's why Julio ended up being a case that got some votes, but 693 OPS, eight home runs ADRBIs, he finished Julio Franco, ahead the guy that probably should have won the award, Mike Bottaker who pitched to a 277 ERA 179 innings. If you look at wins above replacing, which is the only stat that we can use that can compare pictures to headers, Kiddell's 4.1 war was more than double better than Ron Kiddell at 1.9 and was like Quijruple Julio Franco who didn't even accumulate a single win above replacement, 0.9. So Kiddell wins that award, but Bottaker probably should have, the fact that he finished third doesn't bode well for how voters view pictures in these races. That same year in the national league said, y'all remember to 1.19 and he 3, that's Dale Strawberry 26 home runs 74 RBIs wins the award, that same season, Craig McCurdy pitched

16:33to a 3.08 ERA in 224 innings and didn't win the award. Now I'm not trying to take it away from Dale Strawberry, but McCurdy would have had a case if not for how we value position players. 1986 is the other one, Jose Cancaco wins for the A's 33 home runs 117 RBIs in a 775 OPS. Wally Joyner, hit 22 home runs, had 100 RBIs, he took second. The guy who should have won the award, Mark Icon pitched to a 172 ERA over 157 innings pitch with 166 strikeouts. If you look at war, hit a 7.3 war season compared to a 3 war season for Cancaco and again, Icon finished third. So with that said, history would suggest that no one McLean does not have a chance to win this award. But the position player that hits the home runs, that drives in the runs, is going to

17:37get the job done. What I would say to that is if JJ Weatherhold had stayed healthy, there would still be people making the war argument that JJ Weatherhold, because of his second base defense, should be the arrow of the year. Until JJ Weatherhold went down with that injury, he was still the favorite. Now South Stewart was making up a ton of ground because he had a monster July and a monster August. But it was close. Now no McLean is not going to out war South Stewart by considerable margin. At least you don't think so. Right now, South Stewart has a 2.6 F war. No McLean is sitting at 3, but that's not including his start tonight. So obviously that could have changed some things. Let me see what baseball reference has to say about works. I do think that modern voters will pay attention to war to at least dive deeper. No McLean was at a 2.8 F war, excuse me, 2.8 B war that's baseball reference war going

18:38into the start. South Stewart was sitting at 2.2. So McLean does have the edge in war for both metrics, but it's going to take no McLean hitting those benchmarks that we've described, the 200 strikeouts, the 185 innings, the ERI under 3. And it's going to take South Stewart falling back a little bit. If he goes out and has a similar month to what he did back in May, which is interesting because I think that's the exact same month that no McLean struggled. That month he only hit 3 homeruns and he drove in 8 runs. Now so far in September, he has yet to homer. He already has 1 RBI. So it would require South Stewart to kind of lose this award a little bit to have a really bad finish that is fresher on everyone's mind. And no McLean needs to go out against the Marlins' upcoming start here and go like 7 scoreless and get that ERI under 3. He needs to continue to hold the serve against the Orioles and have another quality start.

19:39And then that final week of the season, he's got to do something special. No McLean needs to put an exclamation point on his rookie's year case. Something like the final game of the season, him going 8. 8 shut out or pitching a complete game or something along those lines where it really resonates with voters. It's not over. He still has a shot. And this is playing out the way I was talking about this race three weeks ago. When Carson Bench had his moment in the sun and we were all talking, I was Ben Druckier the year. And you could go back and listen to those shows. I thought he had a chance. I thought the chance was to get to a point where his WRC plus was higher than Stewart's and he could get close to Weatherhole in terms of war and kind of trounce him on offensive metrics. But even then, as I was making that case, you can go back and listen to the thing that I said was it would be a lot easier for No McLean to sprint through the tape of this season than Carson Bench. And now we're seeing Bench fall back a little bit and here's No McLean rising to the

20:42moment and no potentially getting to that point where he will have a lot of conversations surrounding him about this award. He just has to sprint through that finish. He's made 28 starts this season at the end of the day. What No McLean has done this year is pretty remarkable. Okay. He's got a 306 ERA in 28 starts in his rookie season. He's made 36 starts in his big lead career. He's got a 283 ERA to start his big lead career. When you look at this month by month for No McLean, every month but May, he was brilliant, every month but May and April, he had a 237 in junior to 279. July had a 178 ERA and obviously had a 210 and May had a 6.10 ERA and that ultimately could be what cost him his rookie of the year. But it's been a really remarkable season for McLean and he's got a chance. He is not out of it. I do not think this race is over. He needs to have an unbelievable finish this month in these final four starts and Stuart

21:46needs to let the race go a little bit. But that can happen. So we'll see how it all shakes out. What I want to talk about to close up the show though is Jonah Tongue is officially coming up to the New York Metz. Has that set up the rotation for the rest of the season? We're going to go through that to close up the show here in just a minute. Thank you for making Lactone meds. You are first listen to your first watch every day and thank you for making Lactone the number one sports podcast network. Now Andy Green confirmed after the game again that Jonah Tongue will be joining the meds rotation on Monday in Miami. So here is how things line up over the next couple of days. You got Zach Thorne going today. Christian Scott's going to pitch on Sunday. Then on Monday day game, Labor Day, Jonah Tongue will take the amount against the Marlins. On Tuesday, Sean Monai is listed and you would assume that Noel McLean, assuming he recovers

22:51well after this start, will take the mound on Wednesday. Robert Stock pitching out of the bullpen is for shadowing things to come. He's going to pitch out of the bullpen, I think, for the rest of this season, give them at some length and there is going to be one opportunity for him to make a spot start potentially. That's going to come on the final home state of the season for the meds. So you have that series in Miami, Tom and I am acclaimed. Off day on Thursday, that allows Zach Thorne and Christian Scott to get that extra day rest. So Thorne will be going next Friday against the Yankees and Yankees stadium on five days rest and then you'll have Christian Scott go on Saturday. Then on Sunday, it would be right back around the Jonah Tongue. So on five days rest, then you have the series against the Orioles at home. No off days. Monai would pitch, then Noel McLean would pitch and then you have a bullpen game because you would need to get another day rest for Thorne and Scott. So that's where I think there'd be a bullpen game, a Robert Stock or Justin Hagenman.

23:54One of those guys would get that start. You then have a four game set against the Phillies where it'd be Thorne, Scott, Jonah Tongue and Shawmaniah and then this sets up what could be a big final week of the season for Noel McLean as he would get two starts in the final week of the season. It'd be McLean, Thorne, Scott versus the Rangers, then Tongue and I am acclaimed against the Nationals. There's 21 games left in this season for the New York Mets. Four starts of peace for this new five-minute rotation of Noel McLean, Zach, Thorne, Christian, Scott, Jonah Tongue and Shawmaniah. And then one game mixed in there where it have to be a spot start or just a bullpen game to allow all the kids outside of McLean to start on five days rest with each of these final four outings. So it sets things up really well. Noel McLean would make two starts on regular rest, two starts on extra rest. So it's not like you are running him into the ground to win this award, but setting up your rotation in this way.

24:57So allow Noel McLean to make one final impression in that last week of the season where he will get two starts where he can be the best pitcher in the National League that week and really showcase why he deserves the award. And then it's just going to come down to what to voters decide. But I think the best part about what's left in this season for the New York Mets, it's not that it's going to be over. But it's not a push for fourth place. You know, we've talked about that, right? The notion of, hey, don't finish and last. And look, there are two games back in the Nationals. You know, that might happen. But I think what you look at with this season, what's left to play for, it's just seeing the future unfold. Seeing these young guys get their opportunities and seeing what they do with them. We will see for these final 21 games, 16 of them are going to be started by I was going to say a rookie starter, but Christian Scott's not a rookie. It still feels like he is in a lot of respects.

25:59So most of these games, you got something to tune into. Now if you want to sit out the Sean Menai starts, I don't blame you. But for these other games, it's going to be fun because every single other start outside of for for Menai and maybe one bullpen game will be started by a young learn that we want to watch. It's going to have a big thing to say about the Mets future. These are all guys who can be part of a core for a very long time. We talked about yesterday's show. And that's something that I think is encouraging. And that's what I'm going to be watching for down the stretch here, which is why I'm fired up to watch the game on Saturday, not because I care that the Mets are going to put the giants who are a bad baseball team at home. I don't really care about that aspect of it. Sure, it's awesome watching the Mets pile on 10 runs. I hope that happens again. But when I'm excited about I was watching Zach Dorton make another start and seeing how he finishes his rookie season, which has been really good and overshadowed by McLean and Benj and Ewing at times.

27:00I'm excited to see what Christian Scott looks like after getting all this rest in between starts. How did he come out of this and and Kenny refreshed, she'll be sure to gather a really good start. And on Monday, of course, I'm going to be sitting there with my popcorn waiting to see what it looks like when Jonah Tongue finally gets back up to the big leagues. And on Wednesday, I don't know, I might have to drive down to Miami and check out that game with Nolan McClan on the mound. That's something I was planning on doing, but now there's something that I might have to tune in for that. That might be something that gets me in the car driving down the highway for a couple of hours to watch a Mets game at a ballpark that I hate going to in Miami. But Nolan McClan, rookie, the year bid, that might bring you down. So there's still some excitement left for this season. McClan's rookie, the year push is probably going to be the biggest storyline, but we'll see how this team finishes. There's still some seasons not over, obviously it is. But I'll see how much closer they can creep to 75 wins.

28:04Even I have to go 11 and 10 down the stretch to 75 win season. The bad year, but it's not as embarrassing as we thought it was going to be. And that's a credit to how this team has played over the last couple of weeks, where it's been a lot more fun to watch this team to cover this team. But tomorrow, Mets Giants 4 o'clock start for 10 start, I believe. I don't think I'll be live after that one, but I'm definitely going to go live after the game on Sunday. I don't have a full show for you all tomorrow morning as well. I appreciate you all for tuning in. Make sure you follow rate review every extra podcast, subscribe if you're watching on YouTube. Thank you for making a lot to me at your first list and your first watch every day. And thank you for making a lot to on the number one sports podcast network. Thank you for making locked on your first listen every day. For your second listen, find the all night locked on MLB game night. Every game, every night until a World Series champion is crowned. Get local analysis on a national scale. Find MLB game night on locked on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts.