Jays Futures + NFL Lookahead with Tom Pelissero

0:00game. the Orioles six five do the blue J's a favor, but the Rangers blank the raise six nothing. So it's the blue J's and Rangers tied a half game back of the garden guardians and the Rangers do have the tiebreaker over the blue J's because they swept a four game series. Three games upcoming in Texas, but the blue J's have already lost the season series. They cannot have the tiebreaker against the Rangers, but both team 1771, Guardian 70 and 70. So a half game back are the blue J's headed into this three game series against the royals. Yes, at last check the blue J's were losing two out of three to a red hot royals team back

1:05at Roger Center a couple of weeks ago as the series starts tonight eight o'clock sports net sports net five 90 defend. So no doubt Brett Bayman's going to be a top the lineup today again for the blue J's three hit game for Brett Bayman. Yes, today here are the numbers for Brett Bayman so far this season three 30 average three 80 on base three 96 slug. Yeah, no home runs yet. Bunch of walks though some stolen bases and some great defense. Although yesterday weirdly went off his glove. The very catchable ball, especially for Brett Bayman that he didn't catch, but that's the first time in the brief blue J's career. Brett Bayman, there's been a applied defensively that led you scratching your head. So yeah, it comes over in the Kevin Gossman trade and by the way, Kevin Gossman a great start yesterday for the Cubs and in their victory. And of course, Pete Crow Armstrong hit another home run. He said 39. Yeah. If ever you you think that the player is what he is. And I thought, Hey, Pete Crow Armstrong's a good player last year, but too many strikeouts and not enough walks like, I don't know how sustainable that is forever.

2:09He's just totally changed his offensive profile this year and he will be deserving and all MVP. Anyways, Brett Bayman's run on that. I don't think there's 39 home runs in front of his bat. Yeah. I think the Cubs probably were on to something when they were like, Hey, kind of blocked at the major league level is Brett Bayman. So yeah. And if somebody sees value in him, willing to to let him go, especially for a starter that can can give you what Kevin Gossman can give you at times and did yesterday. Anyways. So Brett Bayman love it. He doesn't do everything, right? Now we're limited if not nonexistent, like nonexistent. If you get double digit home runs, that's way exceeding what he's ever done in his professional baseball career. But the hitting for high average and the getting on base of time, that's right there. So I know every conversation I've had with a blue J's reporter, somebody close to the

3:12team about where Brett Bayman fits into the center field puzzle for 2027. It's yeah, maybe he's part of it. But man, you know, look elsewhere and it's you're not ecstatic about it. And it is kind of, I know he's doing this, but like, come on, that's good real. You can do better than Brett Bayman. And then day after day after day after day, it's getting on base of time. It's playing great defense. It's it's having it bats that look totally professional. It's it's looking not overwhelmed against all commerce, including lefties. And I know there's been some years in his professional career where lefties have been a problem. But this year he was doing, he was hanging in against lefties and everything I've seen against lefties in the major leagues. I'll see a major issue there against all commerce and him playing every single day. I am ready to stop the conversation about Brett Bayman being in the mix for 2027, like no, and I don't think it's a terrible idea for him to be right where he is at the

4:14top of the order and play in center field. The blue jays on opening day in 2027. I am now at a point that I'm having a conversation as to how high the ceiling is with this fella. So right now his on base percentage is very high with the blue jays and obviously strengthened by the batting average 330, 380 on base percentage. I know him. Joey Otani's not having the best year of his career. He's got 381 on base, right? He also matches baseball. His slug is gazillion understood. Brett Bayman's career minor league on base percentage. This is a lot of games. Hi. Big sample. 396. So in baseball, I know we want everything. We want the player to have it all, right? It's five tools. You play defense. You have speed. You have the high batting average. You have the high on base. You just and you slug.

5:14You do it all and so few players can do that. And the guy that's doing it for the team that traded away. Brett Bayman is going to win the nationally MVP and he's on a track now. If he's figured it out and this is him. So like this is not hyperbally. If Pete Coral Armstrong does this for another five to 10 years, it's like one of the greatest centerfielders in the history of the sport. That's outrageous. Correct. All the things that he can do. But if you can do some of those things at a high level and it takes a lot, right? If you have almost no power, which Brett Bayman has, you have to do the other things exceedingly well. You know what? Brett Bayman has done in his professional career. Those other things exceedingly well. And I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to be, to be able to carry over the 396 career minor league on base to the, the major leagues. But if and nothing about his 380 on base looks fluky or weird.

6:15If you're talking about a guy with, with a high 300 on base percentage, playing great defense with the great speed. Yeah, man, that's and especially how much this market loves that type of player that gives you everything got the vote of confidence from Buck Martinez. I think the possibility exists the Brett Bayman's a star. Well, he, you know what, he can be a star in this market. That's for sure. He's already on track towards being exceptionally beloved by this fan base. There's that blue collar element that seems like in this city, we really, really value when it comes to our athletes, our Toronto athletes. Okay. So the ceiling is a really, it's an interesting question because I, I struggle with that a little bit. I wonder, I, it feels like, you know, Steven Quantamy feels like somebody, you're kind of looking in the mirror when it comes to Brett Bayman a little bit. There are a lot of striking similarities in their skill sets. The key is I feel like then, you know, Brett Bayman doesn't need to be a guy

7:18that is going to even threaten close to double digit homers at any point in his career. The, the, what, what makes the margin for error though is not, it's, it's a lot more narrow for him because he does have to continue to deliver professional appats and, and improve that. You have to be, hey, it's like Luis Arise. When you do nothing else, like if you're, it's noticeable. Yeah, you, you better hit 350 is like, got it. No problem. Until this year, he decided to win like a gold glove. I don't know how he did that. He became a really good defender. But yeah, it's like each year, O Suzuki, he didn't take walks either. It for limited power, but you know, he did had 260 hits in a season, right? Like, yeah, you better do the other things really, really well to my eye and to the, the evidence of 317 games and 1,383 minor league played appearances to the tune of a 396 on base percentages, right? Maybe I can do those things exceedingly well. I'm perfectly content with the idea of this guy.

8:20Now, never mind just being a part of the mix, but saying we want, we want Brett Bagan to be our primary center field or whatever that time share looks like in the sense that he's getting the majority of starts and reps out in center field, totally comfortable and content with that being the plan for 2027 and potentially be on that. What you're going to have to do is now properly insulate the rest of your line up to count for any more power. Hey, you need the, and you're, it's going to have to come probably in your corner L field spots. That's what you're looking at. You're going to need at least something there. But I feel like the ceiling for this player, if all goes right is one of those, he's, he does, he does remind me a lot of the, the Stephen Kwan's, the Chandler Simpson's, the, those are winning scores. That's the key winning and winning is a wonderful. Stephen Kwan was almost a six win player in 2022. He hits six home runs. He had a 373 on base percentage and he hit 298. There you go. Like, is that within the realm of possibility for Brett Bagan?

9:22People are talking too much about the lack of power for him. Yeah, the lack of power as a team, like, yeah, it's the most important thing you can do in the sport offensively. Any more power, Brett Bagan does not provide that. But I think people are also missing the point on what Brett Bagan does well that not everybody on this team does well. In fact, he's the best at it. Getting on base, that's not making out is actually the most important thing in the sport. Home run definitely secures you at least one run every single time you do it, but making, not making out is actually the most important thing you can do in the sport. And that is on base percentage and throughout his entire professional career, Brett Bagan has shown the ability to do that. If you have nine Brett Bagan's, like, you're not the best offense in the league, but if your team on base percentage is like 400, I know, yeah, you got a sequence, the hits, but like, you're, that's like almost half the time your entire lineup is getting on base. I'm telling you, you're one of the best offensive teams in the sport, even without the home runs.

10:24I know, I know Chandler Simpson has only played for one team in his career, but I, and Stephen Kwan likewise, but there is something I feel to be said about these type of players, the profile of this player, high on base guy with, you know, no power virtually, no power in his game, but maybe there's some speed and you feel good about the gloves certainly defensively. These guys are, they're undervalued in the sport. They, you know, but even Chandler Simpson. So Chandler Simpson has the elite speed, ridiculous speed. His career on base is 332, which is like, eh, yeah, yeah. Like, this is talking about 50 points of on base that that that Brett Batman has over Chandler Simpson now Chandler Simpson also has a higher speed like he's going to man and so many of those base hits are because anything on the ground is a base hit for him on the infield, but there's part of Brett Bateman's offensive profile that is like not a little bit a lot better than Chandler

11:25Simpson. So you're going to lean into the minor league statistics. And the shorter, smaller sample size that we've seen from the mind from saying it's possible. I'm saying the eye, the eye test is matching what we've seen his entire professional career, the eye test and what impressive and, and also the raw numbers of what he's produced at the major, which, so you feel comfortable enough. So I mean, I feel comfortable enough if you said, this, this guy is your lead off hitter, ideally for how long he has that role. I just think the discourse has been too much about how it's like, this is your guy and I get it. It's like it's great. And especially in this team, he stands out. People are discounting what he's done is entire professional career and continues to do with the major league level. Yes. And, and how valuable on base is and that he provides that. And there's not a ton of reason to believe he can't continue to, to provide that. And yet, would you in a perfect world, maybe translate some of that on base to a, to some slug, I suppose, but that, that is really good. I get it on base. 38% of the time is outrageous, really. And, and that it's, it's, I guess,

12:32a little more difficult. It is just factually to score runs with a bunch of guys that get on base and, and don't slug at all. But you can, that, that is an extremely, extremely important skill. You have to do it at a high level if you have no power. But all indications are, and I'm looking at his entire professional track record. And now the, the, the increasing track record we have at the major league level, and he's not playing tomato cans in his granite brief foray into the major leagues. But when you have a minor league sample and a track record, that is very good. You show up at the major leagues and you just do the same thing. And I know it's a smaller sample than your minor league track record. How do you not come to the conclusion that this is a possibility at the major leagues that he's some reasonable facsimile of what he's been for 400 minor league games? When I, when I see a guy like this to me, he, he, he feels like a bit of a throwback, a throwback to 15, 20 years ago, even maybe even before that where every, every spot in your lineup had a very distinct profile and personality to it. And Brett Bateman

13:39checks boxes of old school lead off hitter, right? Now what, what also benefits your offense? We've talked about, yeah, we all know this. Jay's having slogged. Jay's don't have enough power in their lineup. And maybe, maybe there's some, we'll see in a couple weeks if Anthony Santander can be a factor. Who knows? Maybe. But regardless, we understand that's a priority for the blue Jay's in the off season. They're going to have to figure out a way to make their lineup more menacing with some real bonafide offensive threats, power threats. Well, you know what else is going to help benefit those work in favor of those power threats? How about if you have a guy at the top of your lineup that is just doing a really good job of consistently setting the table? And then those guys are coming up with men on base or at least one dude on base. And how about some early offense, Ben? Daniela, if you lead the major leagues in home runs, but you have an on base team on base percentage of like two 90. That's no good. No good. It doesn't mean anything. The is the irrelevant. The the the team of the highest on base in baseball is the Chicago Cubs

14:41339, right? Like we're talking about a guy who's an elite. He has shown in his professional career and it continues at the major league level to be elite at getting on base, which again is the most important skill offensively in baseball, not making it out. Right. Bateman does that extremely well. And I'm just maybe I'm I'm yelling at a straw man, but I don't feel like that's the case because every time I bring his name up, people like, yeah, I guess like I don't know like they kind of humming ha as if like they're not even sure he's a major leagueer where yeah, if you can't get on base at a 380 clip. And it's like even 330. That's not good enough because he's not as fast as Chandler Simpson, right? Yeah. But if it's 380. And again, the minor league track record suggested could be even higher than that. I don't think you can do an apples to apples when you're minor league what your minor league stats are to the major leagues. Obviously, but yeah, it does seem what he's doing at the major leagues. It tracks that that he's got the skills to get on base and has an idea

15:42at the plate and has the speed to leg out some infield singles and can take a walk. And that's super valuable. And I'm just I understand he has no power in this team needs more power. Got it. But I I think people are under valuing or kind of like waving away. Sure. How good at getting on base this guy is. Yeah, they're minimizing it a little minimizing it and and we shouldn't minimize it. Also, the trade itself, you know, to get a player like this who's floor, I would argue the floor to me when I see Brett Bayman, Milestra type, that's the floor like worst case scenario based on his skill set. Yeah, fourth outfielder type. Yeah, good defender. Yeah, you know, adequate a slightly above average speed. So therefore now he's your, you know, pinch runner in certain situations. That's the absolute worst case scenario of this proves to be an outlier stretch rest of season. Totally. But the ceiling is a guy that can prove to be one. Yeah, an everyday major leader. And for a good one, like an all star, like start that's when we're talking about like four and five

16:45win players talking about star. Yeah, you're talking you're talking you're absolutely talking about a difference maker, a real X factor in your lineup. And and and if you can have a dude that is hitting lead off specifically and feels really comfortable in that role, it's not an easy, that's not an easy role to fill. Teams search all season. They they cycle through guys atop a line at the figure out what is the best outfit look like and who is most best suited to fulfill that role. But the blue jays are in a position where if this is real, then they've kind of solved that and they did it all for three months, four months of Kevin Gosman. Yeah, that's quite impressive. With another prospect in the system that was considered to be the actual premier ad in that trade, not not Brett Bayman, which is fascinating to that guy's a little guy though, right? Yeah, Thai side of the sea. He's like four foot two or something. A little tiny. Yeah, I'm just I'm tired of talking about the lack of home run ability with Brett Bayman. Yeah, I'm sorry. You might not hit a home run. But hey, Vlad's only got eight more than him. Right. You should probably look

17:51at the career on base and you should look at the ability he's shown to get on base at the major league level. And by the way, Howard could be coming. You mentioned his name Anthony Santond air could start a rehab assignment in AAA as early as next week and who knows how many games he needs there, but is it possible? It's only like two or three like his is a rival on the scene at the major league level. And you got to be careful because at every at every stop along the way, something's happened to a shoulder, whatever, the injuries or the performance hasn't been there. But you will remember how important he felt like he was as an ad to the blue chase last year because this is a guy who's just so locked at to hit 30 to 40 home runs a season. And boy, with this team like a guy who was a power threat every time he stepped to the plate. Also, try a savage going to throw a bullpen today. Next steps determined after that, but maybe another bullpen and maybe an option like in the near term as a bulk reliever or starter like one of those days

18:53where yeah, you maybe you get your bread and Fisher or your Mason flew hardy starting and then he throws 30, 40, 50 pitches. It's a bullpen day, which one of those two's could two Santander and just assuming that they're going to produce to their career norms, not the norm that we've seen with Santander in his brief time when he's been a blue jage, which is quite bad. Well, it's just assume Anthony Santander is Anthony Santander and Treyas Havitches, Treyas Savage, who is a more important down the stretch. I love this question. I'm Anthony Santander. Yeah, 100% and it's because that is the biggest area of need that exists on a team that is offensive, offensively challenged. The lack of slug, the lack of power. Anthony Santander, Ben, if he came back, I don't know, if he hit four home runs, you'd say, holy smokes. Yeah. What a win. What a victory for the Toronto, Blue Jays in the final two weeks, three weeks of the season, whatever it might entail if there's

19:57playoffs, that would be massive, massive for this baseball team. And I, and I also have to answer it in that manner as well, because you did include the average. There you go. Yeah, I mean, if he's normal self, that's the qualifier. Is it hard to imagine him being his normal self when it's been like, now we're two years removed from that? Maybe. He's not 100 years old. He's 31. Yeah. And you Savage, like allow me to amend this if Spencer, Eric Getty and James the tie-on are absolute a dogwater. Yeah, because you just need those guys to be adequate enough, right? Not even average. I'd like like, don't sink you. Yes. If they start sinking you then, okay, I'll change my opinion, but I think there's enough expectation, reasonable expectation of those guys in the brief times that we've seen them as Blue Jays that they can get the job done adequately well. And obviously, like a fully stretched out and best version of trace average. Yeah, that's awesome. Like a fourth

20:59starter on this team. But yeah, I think Anthony Santana are at a normal Anthony Santana era, right? Playing defense that's not good, but better than we've seen, Hazus Sanchez play left field at times, switch it. Again, though, that is the more valuable, but I'm not banking on it because at every turn again, it's blown up in your face. But if he is able to return to this lineup, that's a huge ad. And there's reasonable, it's a reasonable thought to imagine him in the lineup, like as early as next week, if he goes down to Buffalo and matches in a couple of games, why wouldn't the Blue Jays cause pretty wild to think about? You know, I actually, and I want to task Barker this too, but he's still under contract. You and I talked about this earlier in the week. He's still under contract for three more years beyond this. You would have to imagine because of that, he's going to be factored in in some capacity. But if you're the Blue Jays overall, and as you prepare for an offense in 2027, however you want to remake it and sort of, you know, configure your roster and your lineup, don't you have to kind of just look at him as

22:04more of a lottery ticket? Yeah, totally. Right? Like you have to, you can't treat him as a dude that you're saying in a perfect world, we are hitting him fourth or fifth and he's hidden 40 homers. Now you, you have to have a backup plan out of the gates for next season. And let's see, she shows up into himself for a couple of weeks, then you feel a little more comfortable and into the postseason. Hey, what's all right? We'll get back to the Blue Jays later on after eight o'clock. But when we come back and we are zoning in on week one of the NFL season, it starts on Wednesday with Super Bowl rematch. And then there's a Thursday game in Melbourne, where Tom Pell, a Pellis arrow, our new NFL insider will be for Netflix. He joins us next as the fan morning show continues. Ben Ns Danielle, Francesque sports net five 90, the fan. Hey, it's Aelage for a far and I'm just in comfort. Join us as we discuss the most important sports stories of the day and tee up the biggest games of the night. It's the fan pregame six PM weekdays on sports that sports at 590 to fan and wherever you get your podcasts.

23:07Fan morning show sports net five 90 to fan Ben Ns Danielle, Francesque. So we are less than a week away from the start of the NFL season, Super Bowl rematch Wednesday next week Patriots and Seahawks. And then we get Thursday night football live from Melbourne. These San Francisco 49ers taking on the Super Bowl favorites, the Rams. All right, let's talk to today's insider brought to you by Don Valley, North Lexus. It is a new NFL insider on this program. Tom Pellis arrow of the ringer and Netflix going to be in Australia. Tom, thanks for doing this and welcome to the show. Thank you very much for having me. I'm mostly impressed that you correctly pronounced melden. Melden because I needed to tire like hour long zoom to understand. It's not melbourne. It's melden which I hope to not mess up in front of 25 million people next week. That's smart. So yeah, have you gotten the Australia crash course? Like what do you know about Australia and when do you leave?

24:08I leave on Sunday to get there on Tuesday. So that's the main thing I know is that the 44 hour travel time and a 15 hour time change from where I am in Minneapolis. I may not know where I am for a couple of days. But yeah, I mean, it's it's cool because you know, the main thing we've learned is that there is a, you know, NFL fan base in Australia and in melden. It's being played at the melbourne cricket grounds, which is like 170 year old place that holds over 100,000 people. So kickoff is at 10.35 a.m. local time next Friday, which is 8.35 where you guys are PM on Thursday night. Two hour pregames show before that. And I am pulled sourcing say alcohol sales begin at 6.30 a.m. Friday at the stadium. So a hundred thousand people with four hours of lead time. I am expecting a scene at the at the G. Oh, that's going to be it's going to be quite the scene.

25:12It's going to be very, very awesome, very cool to see the national football league. Now in another country where they're going to play obviously this this football game. It's an important football game too. Obviously the San Francisco 49ers and the LA Rams. I am interested. So if it's going to take you a 24 hour voyage and then you got to account for time difference as well. Is it is it very smart for the LA Rams to decide, Hey, we're going to go the day before this game. Like the the the nighters have already shown up. The Rams are going to try and make this this voyage over the course of one day. And then obviously turn around and prepare to play a football game immediately after that. We're going to find out in the first quarter and the fourth quarter. How exactly this entire thing played out. It's it's fascinating to me that in the year 2026 when NFL teams have spent so much money on sports science and they have data. You know, they they do sleep studies, all these different things. And granted, there's never been this is the longest,

26:15you know, flight that any team has ever had to take for a game. It is, I believe, the earliest game ever in NFL history, local time. And it's the first game that's been across the international date line. You have a bunch of factors where there is no data, right? This is the first time for everyone. It's just fascinating to me that two sports science staffs and coaching staffs and whoever else has involved a collaboration on this came to totally different conclusions on how to handle it. You know, Kyle is the one who back in March when he found out about the game. You know, wasn't really thrilled about it. Just didn't like the idea of starting it and everything to win into it. But he decided to go in a week early for Sean McVay, you know, they played last year in London. They also did that one is basically an overnight trip of thinking being, well, this game is being played like any other prime time game. It's 8 30 Eastern 5 30 on the West Coast PM. So why would we treat it differently than any other prime time game? They're going to get there. They're going to basically be there for the day. They're going to play the game and they're going to go home. I don't

27:18know what the right way is. You can make a case for either. But again, there's a lot of people who are going to draw conclusions based on how the team start and what how much gas they got left at the end. Yeah, it's really, really interesting to think about what the the correct move could be there. So obviously the Rams overwhelming Super Bowl favorites going into the season there like plus 500 to win the whole damn thing. The next closest favorite I believe they're the the bills and the Ravens at plus a thousand. And they get Aaron Donald back after a couple of years of retirement. How convinced are you we're going to get some reasonable facsimile of the best version of Aaron Donald? He is 35 and hasn't played football in two years. There's only one player in the pro football hall of fame since World War II who set out multiple seasons and came back and played again. That was Deon Sanders who set out three years and came back as basically a part-time player involved more. He's still I mean made plays, but he wasn't 1995 Deon Sanders. There's just again, this is a situation with no precedent. There just hasn't been a defensive lineman attempting to pull this off.

28:21I think that the key is to temper your expectations for how much we're going to see Aaron Donald. I do not anticipate we'll see if he plays not really at all, but I do not anticipate we're going to see game certainly not before the playoffs where Aaron Donald is playing 50 60 70 snaps. So I think it's going to be a couple dozen snaps. It's going to be high-liberate situations. Put them out there third down, past rush, two minute, let them affect the game and impact matchups, but do it in ways that allow him to pace himself over what the Rams certainly hold and going to be 20 or 21 games this season. So how good is he? I don't know, maybe in 20 snaps again, he can still be effective, but I'll tell you this. It's the first time ever that if I'm an offensive coordinator and I'm looking and going, okay, I got Miles Garrett over there. I got Byron Young, I got Coby Turner, Braden Fisk, and Aaron Donald. I might single Aaron Donald at least until he proves that shoot, we got a double team this guy like the old bitch. Yeah, totally. On the other side of things,

29:23obviously the Niners have high expectations as well, despite their flame out in the postseason and them not moving away from the substation. Apparently it's fine. It's fine. You know, have to worry about the substation we've done the research. That's not the reason why they're always injured, but they are always injured and maybe Nick Boses going to be healthy enough for this game and George Kittle. How do you view this 49ers team because it's always, well, if they stay healthy, but they're never healthy. The substation's still there. You can see it in the background of every shot. It's not the ideal look. That's when you're watching those guys practice. The good news for the 49ers right now. Grant, they haven't even played regular season game yet, but outside of Ricky Peersol, they don't have like major injuries. Yeah, Christian McCaffrey didn't practice all a lot. He said that was part of the plan. Christian, he's so private about his health details that, even if he had something minor, they don't have to issue an injury report. So we wouldn't know. You know, Boses coming back from major injury, Fred Warners coming back from major injury. Everybody seems like they're in a pretty good place going into the season and we'll see how it plays out. I do think the 49ers are a really good football team. They're also in a really

30:26cuff division. I mean, in the Rams too, we have everybody forgets about the Seahawks, back the way over there in the Northwest part of the country. They should be better. The team that just won the Super Bowl and it wasn't like a flute team that got it as the 7 seed, the loud card, it made a plucky run. No, the Seahawks dominated last year. They played a couple close games with the Rams, yes, but they were the number one seed. They rolled everybody. They'd beat up on the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They lost Kenneth Walker, the running back, but they drafted one in the first round. They lost a couple other parts. Kobe Bryant went to Chicago, but like the Corp is still there. Sam Darnold, who was beat up at the end of the year, will be healthy again. I just think that the Seahawks are being massively underrated in this thing. I understand, you know, the, the Benny Lines are set by where the money is going, right? Which is why the, the Rams end up plus 500. I also fight it funny, by the way, that if you look, and you just listen it off. So the top three teams on the odds you're looking at are the Rams, the Ravens, and the Bills.

31:27One of those teams fired their head coaches after last seeded. And another one didn't even win their division. The chiefs are up there too. They went six and 11 last year. And I'm not saying the odds are wrong. I just think that that's one of the storylines of this season, which is a lot of the teams that we're talking about have various reasons to go back to the end of last year. Go, gosh, that wasn't as good as you would, you would hope that it could have been, you know, one of the Ravens going to be with the new head coach. What are the bills going to look like with the new head coach? I'll be the one who was already there at the office of coordinator. Do the chief bounce back in this thing? The AFC, for most of us we talked about the AFC for a long time, being all these teams. It's the same names being there at the end. The AFC seems really wide open. Going to that this season, I think that's great for those of us who are excited to watch and cover it. I find a fascinating, Tom. And I'm glad you brought up Seattle. How this team went from winning a Super Bowl to now it almost feels like there are some of the same questions and some of the same

32:29criticisms about this football team that you would have said a year ago at this time. It's, I'm amazed by that. Like this team just won a championship and they're not necessarily, I don't feel getting the respect that they deserve. There's some turnover. I understand the defense. They've lost some pieces, injuries, a piece of it as well. But yeah, I think you rightly point out this is a team that's kind of being slept on somehow as a defending Super Bowl champions. Actually, sort of along those lines, is there an offseason narrative, something that we've heard, discuss that nauseam throughout the course of the summer that you just think has been overstated going into this football season? That's a good question. I think that this is a year that's very much defined by, there's a handful of teams that appear on paper to have no shot whatsoever. Everybody else is kind of in the mix. I think there's some teams that we've just kind of put in that in that former bucket of like, well, they're not going to be in the mix. And every playoff

33:30projects you see, you look at the win loss, you know, totals, and they're not there. I mean, the commanders aren't an interesting team to me. They were in the NSU Championship game two years ago. Last year was just a disaster of injuries and they doubled down on old players. They had guys who ended up descending. They kind of refreshed and got some younger players. They're still, I don't know what they were in totalism, it's like five and a half or something. I think with Jayden Daniels, assuming that he is healthy, they should be a better football team. Now, they're flipping their offense completely. They're not running the Cliff Kingsbury area derivative offense anymore. So we'll see on Jayden fits in. But I mean, Jayden Daniels being, you know, working in the year, MVP candidate like, I mean, he was the dude in today, what, not five years ago was 20, 24. So that's a team. I'm going to show this another team that like, I think they're there win loss over under like eight and a half. They went 98 last year with like a total disaster at quarterback. For certain, Max Brozeman, Chris Misday, for 52 yards and they not the lions out of a playoff

34:32that day because the defense is so good. I think there's just some teams that because, you know, we don't, there's nothing new or really super exciting about them or because of where they play. I mean, the Cocks are a perfect example of like the geographical, I don't know if I want to say biases, but just like the teams that get overlooked. I mean, John Schneider, the Cocks GM, not the Blue Jays manager, not the guy from Duce Adred, but the John Schneider runs the Cocks, he, you know, always jokes and like, you know, bus are obviously about like, oh, you guys don't talk about us. We're in the Pacific Northwest. You don't know any of the players. It's like, he's not wrong. They just won the Super Bowl. Like, tell me the ads you've seen on TV with a Cocks player. There's nothing who were the household names on the Seattle Cocks. It's just, it's a little bit different. And the here's the thing they love it. The Cocks love that nobody's talking about. And all they talk about is the Rams. Nick even wore the safety had some tweet after the Aaron Donald announced it with the Rams. And it was something along the lines of all this for us.

35:37They just love that everybody's kind of playing ketchup that try to get after the Cocks. I just don't see a Cocks team that's not going to be better this season. They've got a really young core. Again, they got a healthy Sam Darnel. We'll see how quickly Jadarian Price can get rolling at the running back position. But it's not like Kenneth Walker before the playoff run last year was like, you know, a world beater. You know, that's the team that I think that, you know, it's kind of been, I don't want to say the Rams have been oversold in terms of a storyline. I mean, they're the ultimate LAT. All they do is huge flashy moves. But the Cocks are still in that same division. They're still really, really good. And I think they're going to be there at the end again. Yeah, it used to be eye-roly when the chiefs would before the season or before the postseason talk about how nobody believes in us because everybody believed in the chiefs. But I think the Cocks can actually do it. They can say nobody believes in us because, yeah, Vegas is indicating not a ton of people believing in their repeat possibilities. So, yeah, we don't have games to talk about yet. I don't want to skip too far ahead, but let's do it.

36:37A year from now, what are the odds that won or both of Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow are not on their current teams? I mean, that's one of the biggest storylines of this entire season. They're both under contract beyond this season. So, start there. Anything would have to come down to decisions made, a trade, a player wanting to be traded. Those are core. Those are the face of the franchise type guys. And so, yes, I'd say it's early, but the circumstances certainly put us in that position, which, Joe Burrow, he said again and again, and he feels like this is a maker break type of year that it's all about winning right now. He's been frustrated. He's been hurt a ton. One of the things since now, he's done by beefing up the defense is they hope. Stop some people. So, Joe Burrow's not in the shootout and dropping back 50 times and having to hold the football, which is not how he suffered the turtto injury last year. If things don't go well, then inevitably there's going to be changes there. The Bengals are doing things differently,

37:38trading the top 10 pick for Dexter Lawrence. Among other things, does that involve Zach Taylor? He's got two years left on his contract. Joe Burrow has been a big Zach Taylor supporter. And the Bengals never fire coaches. So, we'll see exactly how that plays out, but it's a big year in Cincinnati. In Baltimore, they've got a little bit of cover in terms of it's a new staff. Jesse Mentor's a young head coach. The new offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle is a first-time play caller who is the same age as Lamar Jackson. They've got a pretty soft schedule. If you look at the first six weeks and say, that's advantageous, they're asking Lamar to do some different things. You just in terms of like the timing mechanisms and the where you're trying to like hit receivers on their specific landmarks, connect his eyes to his feet. But Lamar is still Lamar and he's going to be able to play you would think in any system. It's just a matter of how quickly is he able to go up to speed in this one. With Lamar, the brave has been trying for two years to get a contract done. He's due 52 million this year, 52 million next year. And because he's making so

38:39much money, he doesn't really have a reason to like rush in and just take any deal. That's a lot of cash flow. Next off season, there's the entire quarterback class of 2024, which is, you know, Caleb William, Shane Daniels, Drake May, Bonix. They'll all be extension eligible, meaning that quarterback market as much as it's exploded in the past five years, it can explode more. And the $60 million benchmark could be 70 easily. If you're Lamar and you're making 52 this year, you might be just be like, you know what? I'm just going to wait this thing out. You just never know it's Lamar because he doesn't have an agent. His advisor is his mother. They negotiate him directly with Eric Acosta. Not a lot of people are really clued into what's going on there. Lamar could wake up the day before the opener and go, yeah, I'll just take the most recent offer, which is kind of what happened before the draft a couple of years ago when he signed his last extension. Or he can ride the thing out. I'm of the mind right now logically. He'll ride the thing out, but Lamar is surprised this before and we'll see exactly what that direction goes. If he doesn't have a contract in place

39:39by the end of this season, you know, or by March, this is going to be a lot of discussion about what's the right thing to do because the ribbons have already burned a franchise tag on them. And, you know, at that point, did they let him play out the contract? I don't see them wanting to trade the guy away, but there's just a lot of different scenarios that could play out. Yeah. The absence of an agent definitely makes things all the more fascinating and unpredictable when it comes to Lamar Jackson because you're right. You just kind of don't, you don't know. And it's more of a private thing. And you don't have that intermediary and the messaging isn't, there's just nothing that's really public. It's it's a very private sort of operation when it comes to Lamar and obviously his dealings with the Baltimore Ravens sticking at quarterback, Tom. Another guy who's looking for a deal is CJ Stroud of the Houston Texans. And and year one Stroud was unbelievable. He was awesome. As a rookie. Years two and three regression, certainly. And I think a lot of people in that market are probably questioning whether he is indeed the guy to be the face of that team. And if he is a super

40:43capable caliber, super bowl winning quarterback for the Houston Texans. I mean, you could argue that Texas team last year was was well equipped to make a really, really deep run. And it was probably on on their quarterback for perhaps not capitalizing on that opportunity. But am I right? And is it is it our understanding that he has turned down a deal that could have paid him upwards of 50 plus million dollars per season. And he's essentially betting on himself going into this 2026 campaign. And it's a phrase turned down because that makes it feel like that was the end. They're nowhere near the end. They have had negotiations. They've had contract talks. They're just not on the same page right now. What the what the market value is. And again, I just mentioned how the market could move next year. As much as yes, 50 million dollars a year is a lot to everybody. And I don't know that that's the exact number. There's different ways you can slice these things. But if you're sitting there going if I have a better year, because if that's what they're paying me coming off of, I mean, it was a bumpy start to last season in a new office.

41:45They kind of found their way. And then yeah, what happened in the last playoff game was a complete mess. If the Texans are willing to extend him on that type of a deal and commit that money now, imagine if he plays like the old CJ Stroud. Imagine if he finishes on a high note, he'll make that much more. You know, these these things are all about, you know, your degrees of risk tolerance, knowing your downside, knowing your upside. CT Stroud, I know this, you know, going all the way back to February and March like he was willing to play this out. If it wasn't the right deal, he was willing to play the thing out. He's technically got two years left because he's got going into year four. He's still got a 50 year option as well. Then they got two franchise tags. So the Texans have leverage. They have under team control for another four years. They don't have to do anything. They're trying to get something done. It sounds like at their number and they have throughout the course of the summer, it's still possible that they make a move or CJ, you know, make some move and they can find a, you know, find a common ground here over the next eight days before the opener. I don't know if that's going to happen. Right now, I would guess that he's going

42:46to play this this year out. Then he got a big number sitting there in 2027. There's no question, he needs to play better than he did at the end. But I would disagree that the whole thing was bad last year. It was a different style of offense. They started all in three. They changed some things on defense. They have the best defense in the NFL. And and Stroud played fine. We really want to talk about CJ Stroud for a good chunk of the season. What happened at the end? I mean, when you're struggling just to even feel the snap, there's something going on. You would just hope that when he comes back out that he's in a way better place. And let's hear the team this plan of week one. Tom, it is great to have you a part of this program. You drive a hard bargain. We had to act. We asked you when it comes to your intro music. What did we listen to? What, what, what did you choose as your intro music? I had a few, few, few, few mid 20 skateboarder today. I've become good friends with those guys over the years. Turned me on to a lot of other Toronto bands. So I'll surprise you guys week to week and make sure the producer knows what, what I'm feeling that day. And I

43:47definitely, I don't actually feel mid 20s today. I feel very much mid 40s, which is what I am. But trying to try to get myself in the mindset. And you haven't even been on a 20 hour flight. We'll see you feel next week. Fingers crossed for you, Tom. Again, great to have you as a part of the show. Thanks for doing this. You got a catch. Tom Pellisero NFL reporter for the ringer and Netflix. He will be in Melbourne next week. He is today's insider brought to you by Don Valley, North Lexus. He'll be our NFL insider all season long. The sea octopus and the best place you can be in in sports as far as like a narrative is concerned. You really damn good. You continue to be really good. You've already done a thing and still you're an underdog going into the season. Awesome. Is that a wonderful position to be in the best thing to happen to the Seattle sea hawks as Aaron Donald coming out of retirement and the LA Rams also kind of pushing even more chips in prior to the Donald re acquisition him, him making the decision to return and rejoin that group because

44:50everybody's being seduced by the headlines that are being generated through LA. The 49ers have their substation and that always gets a lot of talk. But Seattle, I am honestly quite stunned that we're talking about a super bowl champ, a reigning champ that in such an unassuming fashion. And you'd have to also figure Ben. I know they were awesome. They were unbelievable. They could be just as good because there's more there's continuity. Yeah, of course. And Mike McDonald is only getting better as a coach like he's he's still adjusting and learning as he goes through and Sam Darnold in year two in the system in the chemistry with JSN like there are just so many reasons to feel optimistic and good about Seattle. And I'm sure if your sea ox fan it's probably frustrating to a degree that your team is no, you know what? I think I would imagine people the Pacific Northwest are saying they're saying really like nobody's going to give us our flowers. And everybody's just going to kind of overlook them. But it is actually better I think for their

45:52football totally. Yeah. And I can't wait for those two games against the Rams because they were the best games of the season last year. Correct. And of the post season last year. And I imagine it's going to be more of the same this year. And yeah, maybe they'll be meeting the Broncos in the Super Bowl which could have been the Super Bowl matchup last year if Bonyx hadn't destroyed his ankle in the last snap before you know having to hand the Patriots their Super Bowl appearance and then giving us a horrifying Super Bowl. You know who remembers that well Kevin Barker. Broncos he also of Blair Barker joins us next. He's been morning Joe continues Ben Ns Daniel Francis. He support in 5'9", new team.