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Prof. John Mearsheimer explains why Iran holds all the cards and could devastate the US and the global economy by going up the escalation ladder. A U.S. defeat in Iran, which appears inevitably, will also result in a much wider strategic defeat of the US position in the international system. John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982. Follow Prof. Glenn Diesen: Substack: https://glenndiesen.substack.com/ X/Twitter: https://x.com/Glenn_DiesenPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/glenndiesen Support the research by Prof. Glenn Diesen: PayPal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/glenndiesenBuy me a Coffee: buymeacoffee.com/gdiesengGo Fund Me: https://gofund.me/09ea012fBooks by Prof. Glenn Diesen: https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B09FPQ4MDL
Welcome back. We are joined again by Professor John Merchheimer, so thank you very much for coming on the program. I am
I was hoping today we can yeah, maybe first take a step back and look at the her wider strategy of the United States on their Trump because
I was quite optimistic about his reelection that is he seemed to be
capable of breaking from you know narratives and ideologies which I think the political West followed
blind love the past decades and this seemed to be a requirement to navigate
Or adjust at least to the new realities of the world which was that the unipolar distribution of power was gone
So he recognized us couldn't be everywhere. So it's more or less suggested
You know, we have to go to the Western Hemisphere and East Asia, which means we have to pivot out of the Middle East and Europe and
That meant ending the war with Russia. This trapped US resource in Europe and it pushed Russia towards China and also in the Middle East
He was quite consistent on ending the forever war. So
Overall what I'm trying to say is
although, you know, he's you know
A man who's not very civilized in his demeanor. What he said was a lot more rational than what I heard from other politicians
So that's why I wanted to hear from you. What do you make of his direction his direction now?
What's gonna happen to the pivot to Asia and this wider
strategy which we saw outlined in the
National security strategy of December 25th. I think Glenn
The best evidence of what you're talking about regarding how people like us thought about Trump
initially in terms of foreign policy
And what people think now is
reflected in the lineup of people
On judging freedom judge Napolitano show and of course both you and I are regulars on the judges
I think if you go back to the first
Maybe six seven months after President Trump was elected
Virtually everybody who appeared on that show
Was quite optimistic that Trump would represent
positive movement in terms of American foreign policy
That there would be no more forever wars
He wouldn't start any new wars period
Uh, and there would be much lamp much less emphasis on a militarized foreign policy
And I think most importantly at the time I think we all thought that there was a reasonable chance
He would shut down the Ukraine Russia war
So there was a lot of optimism about him and of course a lot of the people on the show
The Americans didn't vote for Trump some did but everybody I think was generally pretty enthusiastic about the direction that he was gonna
Take the United States. I think now if you watch
Judging freedom almost everybody on that show
Is and I'm choosing my words carefully here very critical of President Trump
That he is seen to have blown it
To miss a terrific opportunity
To change the direction that American foreign policy was going in
And if anything he's on the old path
Uh, I think the key issue today
Uh, is the Iran war and
All I can say is it's truly remarkable that he allowed himself to fall into this trap
Uh, this is much worse than Afghanistan much worse than Iraq
Uh, I mean if you think about the Iraq war in 2003 at least in the initial stages
uh
George W. Bush could land on the aircraft carrier and effectively declare a mission accomplished
Which is another way of saying we won
Trump can't do that. It's been clear almost from the beginning
That this is the lost cause
Uh, but more importantly
Uh, the potential for really
Serious damage here
Uh, is enormous
Uh, and here we're talking mainly about the international economy
But not only the international economy
So he's entered a war that he can't win and could have
And one could argue is likely to have catastrophic consequences
Uh, for the world uh, not just for him and his presidency
So it's really quite remarkable when you think about it
Where he has ended up in a in a in a quite short period of time
Uh, you know, he was
Put in office January 20th of 2025
And the war started against Iran on February 28th, 2026
That's effectively 13 months after he's in office
So he starts off looking like he has a winning strategy
Uh, but 13 months later uh, he's jumped into a huge quagmire that he can't get out of
Uh, truly amazing
Well, we're going to optimism though
It's uh, I wouldn't say that it was uh, rooted in being naive
Because if you look, he did have a first term
And unlike all his predecessors uh, you know, going back to World War II
He didn't start any new war so he seemed to follow through on his uh, rhetoric
So that that's why this has come as a bit of a surprise
How many you know, he's his foreign policy in the second time around
Why he went down this path
But how do you make sense of the demands he's making now
Because you said he can't really get out of this
But if you listen to his language, he suggests that the Iranians are now begging for a deal
They're offering him all these ships full of oil
If they just uh, you know, he will be so kind to give them a deal
And the Iranians are simply saying they're not even talking to the US at the moment
So how do you make sense of it?
Because the demands he put for the Iranians, it was essentially full capitulation
It was uh, no nuclear enrichment
Uh, it's no ballistic missiles
Uh, no partnership with regional allies
It's uh, capitulation I think would be a good description
Well, I think the words that he used that always stick in my head, Glenn
are unconditional surrender
Right
And by the way, if you look at the 15 point plan
That he's now putting forward to the Iranians
As the bases for working out a deal
It looks like unconditional surrender
And when I first saw the 15 point plan
I thought it was a joke, I thought that, you know, uh, this was disinformation
That the Iranians or the Israelis had put out
I couldn't believe this was a serious plan
Uh, but as you know some some days
President Trump thinks uh, that we've won a great victory
That the war is over with and we just have to uh, sign the documents of surrender
Uh, other days you can tell he's quite desperate
Uh, and uh, he understands that he has made a huge mistake
And that he's got to find an exit strategy
And he really can't
So he goes back and forth
His rhetoric just changes all the time
It's quite remarkable
But the fact is Glenn, he is and we are in profound trouble
Now what's going on here?
We started this war thinking that we would win
A quick and decisive victory
When I say we, I'm talking about the Trump administration
Because people like us of course understood
That this was a cock-a-mainly strategy from the get-go
But the West, the United States and Israel started this war
Thinking that they could employ a shock and awe strategy
Uh, built around decapitation
We decapitate the regime with shock and all the uh,
Iranians and people would rise up in the streets
They'd overthrow the regime
And we would live happily ever after
This was the basic strategy
We had to win a quick and decisive victory for this to work
And it failed
Uh, and by the way, uh, anybody who has a basic understanding
Of international relations
Should have understood that this would fail from the get-go
It was just not going to work
And it didn't work
But then we found ourselves in a protracted war
Here we are
And I don't think most people fully realize it
But the Iranians hold almost all the cards
In a protracted war
Uh, first of all there's no real good exit strategy for Trump
And if he goes up the escalation ladder
Which is the other alternative
The Iranians beat him at almost every step of the ladder
I think it's very hard for most Americans to understand this
Especially people who watch Fox News
And are loyal supporters of the president
They think that we're winning
They listen to him
They say that, you know, we've already won
Why haven't the Iranians signed the surrender papers
But if you look carefully at what's going on here
And you have a basic understanding of military history and military strategy
You see very quickly that we are in terrible shape
As you go up the escalation ladder
So again, the point I'm making to you is
He has no exit strategy
He can't find the exit ramp now
And if he thinks about going up the escalation ladder
He gets stymied on every run
Now, why do I say that?
First of all, Iran can wreck the international economy
It can wreck the international economy
And one could argue that we're sort of heading in that direction
I like to say there's an iceberg out there in the water
And we're heading towards that iceberg
We are the Titanic
And I think President Trump basically understands that
And I think his advisors understand that
And they're trying to turn the ship so that we don't hit the iceberg
But anyway, my point is, my first point is
That Iran can wreck the international economy
Furthermore, it can destroy
Literally destroy most of the Gulf states
Because those states depend on desalination plants
And they depend on oil infrastructure
And those targets are easy for the Iranians to hit
And if the Iranians decided that they were going to go after a country like Saudi Arabia
And take out all their desalination plants
And take out their oil or energy infrastructure
They basically wreck Saudi Arabia
As a functioning society
Uh, then there's the whole question of the Israelis
The Israelis are running out of defensive missiles
The Iranians obviously have lots of missiles
They can do enormous damage to Israel
I don't think they can do to Israel what they could do to countries
Like Saudi Arabia or the UAE
But there's no question that they can do enormous damage
Uh, to, uh, to Israel
Uh, then there's the whole question of ground forces
We should talk more about this
We don't have any serious ground forces option
This is, this is a joke
Right, there's just no ground forces option there
And in fact, if we go down that road, uh, we're just going to make a bad situation
Even worse
Then to take it a step further
What we have to do, what President Trump has to do
To avoid a catastrophe in the international economy
Is he's going to make sure there's a lot of oil
Out there in the global market
There's got to be a lot of oil
This is why he took economic sanctions off of the Russians
Just think about that
We have taken sanctions off the Russians
So that their oil can get out into the market
More importantly for what we're talking about here
We've taken sanctions off the Iranians
And we're allowing
Just think about this
We're allowing Iranian ships to go through the strait of Hormuz
Because we want that Iranian oil out there
In the market
Uh, the global market
So what's happening here is
Although we are bombing Iranians
And doing significant damage to their country
And murdering innocent people
Uh, at the same time
The Iranians are not suffering economically
Uh, so
What this tells you is that
President Trump has to be extremely careful
That he doesn't go up the escalation ladder
Because if he goes up the escalation ladder
The end result is that the Iranians will win
And we will lose in a truly serious way
So we're in deep, deep trouble
It's a good point with the escalation ladder
Like the Iranians have a lot of cards to play here
That is not just to have a shot down the strait of Hormuz
But if they use Yemen to shut down the Red Sea
As you mentioned with Saudi Arabia
Now they're cut off from all access
If you destroy their desalination plants easy
No water
Hit their energy fields
No energy
And in places like Qatar
Where 85% to 90% of the population are foreigners
They would begin to leave
It would only be a desert lift
Which is how they found it
So it is
It's probably one of the most vulnerable countries of the world
Uh, this uh, this state
So it is uh
But you would have thought
They would have considered this before
Going into this war
Because the Iranians were quite open about
What they could do
And what they would likely do
I know Trump said
You know who would have ever have thought
That they would strike US bases around the region
You know, they kept saying
Though this is what we're going to do
We're going to shot down the strait of Hormuz
We're going to attack your bases
And uh, even now in Iraq
Uh, I'm not sure if there's Americans left
But Europeans are pretty much all out
So, uh, after 23 years
So they, they seem to be able to
At least so far achieve
Some of the objectives they set out
Um, but you often made the point
That in Ukraine
A political settlement is unlikely
Because the different sides
They're, you know, the too far part
There's nothing to agree on
But in this instance though
Um, you know
Even if this will only be Trump's opening position
You know, them handing full
Unconditional surrender
Uh, the Iranians also have
Their own conditions
Which makes it very difficult
Even for
You know, Trump to declare victory and go home
So, how do you see this playing out
And is, is there any
Solution to this war at all
I mean, can Trump go home
Uh, here's the problem
I think Glenn
It's twofold
First of all, as you noted
The two sides are miles apart
Uh, uh, on, in terms of their demands
Right, that there's no bargaining space here
And of course, you and I have made this same argument
Regarding the Ukrainians
And the West on one side
And the Russians on the other side
There's just no bargaining space
The demands of each side
Are so
In uh, in
So, at odds with the demands of the other side
You just kind of can't see how you get a deal
That's point number one
Uh, the second point I'd make
Is that
If you're playing a ranz hand
You have no interest in cutting a deal now
You have huge leverage now
Uh, for the reasons I described before
And the longer the war goes on
The more leverage you have
The longer the war goes on
The more desperate President Trump is going to get
Uh, he has to
You know, the Titanic is heading toward the iceberg
And you have got to start changing course now
By the way, you're going to hit the iceberg
That's where we are
Uh, well, you have to look
At, is the yields on 10-year treasury bonds
In the United States
Uh, which many people
View as being in a danger zone
And uh, in a situation where it's only going to get worse
Right
This is really
Potentially disastrous
Right
We have to do something to fix this problem
Uh, this is why President Trump
Said on Monday
Uh, that he was not going
To attack
Iran that evening
Remember he had promised that he was going to attack
Monday evening
I think that was the 23rd March 23rd
And the day of March 23rd in the morning
He called it off
And he said, I'll give him five days
And he's just said, now I'll give them 10 days
What's going on here?
It would be suicidal for President Trump
To launch an all-out attack
On Iranian
Energy infrastructure
This would be nuts
Again, as I said before
We have a deep-seated interest
In making sure there's as much Iranian oil
Out in global markets
As possible
By the way, just
parenthetically
You know, there's all this talk about us
Conquering carg island
And uh, people say
You want to understand that 90% of Iranian oil
Goes through carg island and we can conquer it
I don't think we can conquer it
But let's assume we conquer it
What are we going to do?
Conquer carg island and cut off the flow of oil
Into global markets
We're not going to do that
You remember when President Trump
Said that we bombed carg island
He emphasized very clearly
That he only hit military targets
Why did he do that?
Because he understands again
That you have to get
You have to get that Iranian oil
And you have to get that Russian oil
You have to get all the oil you can
Out into global markets
Because if you look at what's happening in the strait
Right, remember
About 20% of the world's oil comes through the strait
I would argue that today
It's been reduced
What comes through the strait
Has been reduced to about 5%
Of what it was before February 28th
Just think about that
20% of the world's oil comes through the strait
And we're not even talking about fertilizers here
Which is another huge problem
But just oil
20% comes through the strait
And at this point in time
Only 5% of what was going through the strait
On February 27th
Is now going through the strait
This is a huge problem
So this tells you
That we cannot go after
Iranian oil
And wreck their energy infrastructure
And that means the Iranians have huge leverage over us
And the longer this goes on
When you think about the consequences
For the world's food supply
Of all these fertilizers
Not making it through the strait
And then you think about the consequences
Of only 5%
Of the pre-war
Flow of tankers
Through the
strait is now taking place
You see that the potential for disaster is huge
And the Iranians have invested interest in stringing this out
Because the more they string it out
The more desperate President Trump gets
And the more desperate President Trump gets
The more leverage they have
Which really got to cause President Trump to cave
In a major way
Is when he comes to understand
That if he doesn't shift course
The Titanic is going to hit the iceberg
And the pressure is already there
Again, that is why I believe
He did not attack this past Monday
Gave them 5 more days
And has now given them 10 more days
And what happens at the end of the 10 days
If the Iranians don't cave
To his preposterous
15 point plan
Is he going to bomb Iran
Is he going to bomb their energy infrastructure
I don't think so
He has no option here
You know, just getting back your original
Point about 5 minutes ago
To how we got into this situation
How we could have allowed ourselves
To be put in such a vulnerable position
The fact is again, Glenn
They thought they were going to win a quick and decisive victory
I've studied a lot of military history
You see this in so many cases
Countries go to war
And they go to war because they're optimistic about their chances
It makes perfect sense
You don't go to war if you think you're going to lose
President Trump didn't go to war
Thinking he was going to end up in the situation
That he is in now
He went to war
Thinking he was going to do another event as well
Operation
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee
Bring the Iranians down
Be able to proclaim victory
Have a parade in New York or something like that
That's what he thought
But once that doesn't happen
And you're in a war of attrition
Oh, you are in deep trouble
And you are especially in deep trouble in this case
Because the Iranians hold so many of the cards
And again, the point I'm making to you is
We want to deal now
Trump wants to deal
But he wants to deal on his terms
But he can't get a deal on his terms
And in fact, again, just to repeat myself
Because I think it's such an important point
The Iranians have a vested interest in just letting this one go
And at some point down the road
When they have much more leverage than they do now
Then trying to work at a deal on
That's favorable to them
I think that's an important point
Which, a important people also understand
That the idea that time is on the Iran inside
Because if you look at the military component
The Iranians can continue to just pump out these very cheap drones
You know, it's easy to manufacture
They're cheap
The industrial potential can remain
And this, you know, $5,000 drones are sent
And the US have to use this million-dollar interceptive
Missile
So they can continue to pump them drones
While the US diminishes its potential
So again, time is on their side
And also as you suggest
As I suggested
In the economic era
They're actually making more money now
That the prices are going up
So while the US is
Going somewhere very dark and dangerous
So it does
I can see
If you were advising the Iranians
You would say
You know, you're not in a rush to wrap this one up
Especially when these are the deals
Or the terms they're putting on the table
But
But I was wondering
When he started this countdown
First 48 hours and 5 days and 10 days
It reminded me a little bit about
What he did with the Russians
He was also putting, I think, 50 days
Then he went down to 12 days
You know, when the countdown was over
The Russia was going to be hit by the toughest sanctions ever
And when the clock finally ran out
Instead, you know, he's called Putin
And they agreed to meet in Alaska
So, you know, he just pushed the whole thing aside
But
Is this something similar that can happen here
Because
I guess the difference is that the Russians
Really wanted a deal
But for the Iranians
It's unclear what Trump can actually deliver
Because if they hold on to Hormuz
They can
They can
You know, essentially put up a toll booth
They can get reparations from the Gulf states
For this attack
They can demand that they
Expelled the US bases
Which have already been
Many of them blown up
And they can even
Compel them to ditch the dollar in their energy trade
So
Which links the US
Financially to the region
So they can get everything they want
With military means
Which means Trump really has to have something else to offer
If he wants to get them to the table
I'm just wondering what is it?
If
Again, if Trump calls you
How do he
You know, avoid the iceberg
How do we get out of here
What can he do at this point in time?
The truth is
He is going to have to make
Major concessions
To the Iranians
And it will be clear
When he makes those major concessions
That the Iranians
Won a clear victory
It will be a humiliating defeat for the United States
If he wants to end this
Given what you and I have been saying
About what happens is
You go up the escalation ladder
And the fact that there is no easy exit strategy here
He really has no choice in the final analysis
But to cave in to most of Iran's demands
And accept a humiliating defeat
And that will be extremely hard to do
And it will be extremely hard to do in part
Because of Israel
The Israelis will not want us to make any concessions
The Israelis will want us to continue the war
But I think this will be a case
Where we will be so desperate
To avoid a global catastrophe
The Trump will ignore the Israelis
And do what he has to do
Now he may not do that
Right
He may feel that he just can't
Make the necessary concessions
That the Iranian demands are just too outrageous
And those Iranian demands would be hard for anyone to swallow
Anybody in the White House
Whether it's President Trump, President George H.W. Bush
Ronald Reagan, Franklin D. Roosevelt
The demands that the Iranians are making are really quite amazing
So even if you accept only 75% of them
Or even 50% of them
That would be very difficult to do
And this is the enormous problem that he faces
And one can easily imagine
Let me take away the word easily
One can imagine him not accepting a deal
And just thinking that he can stick it out
And the end result is
Well, basically go off a cliff
Economically
You know, I think a lot of people don't see that
As a serious possibility at this point in time
But I think if you look
At you know, newspapers like the financial times
In the Wall Street Journal
Carefully you look at the business section
The articles that are written about the economy
And about fertilizers
And food and so forth and so on
You see that we could very easily go off a cliff here
We're talking about a serious situation
And it's not clear what President Trump will do
As I like to say Glenn
I think that when you study international history
There are these handful of cases that stand out
Where policymakers get into desperate situations
And when policymakers get into desperate situations
They sometimes roll the dice
They do things that lead to catastrophe
And my favorite example here
Is the Japanese decision making process that led to Pearl Harbor
The United States was squeezing Japan economically
Between actually between the summer of 1940
And Pearl Harbor which was December 7th, 1941
And we really began to squeeze
Starting July 25th, 1941
This is shortly after the
Verumacht invaded the Soviet Union
And we were really putting pressure on Japan after that
And the Japanese were desperate
Because they were heavily dependent on the United States
They were remarkably dependent on the United States
For oil, scrap iron, and scrap steel
And we had basically
Made it impossible for them to import
Those things from the United States
We had frozen their assets
Their economic assets
And they were just desperate
And they understood full well
That attacking the United States at Pearl Harbor
Was likely to end in catastrophe
It's very important to understand this
The Japanese understood
That they were attacking Godzilla
And that it was likely to end in disaster
But they did it anyway
Because they were desperate
And when the level of desperation reaches a certain point
States, countries, leaders
Sometimes do
Remarkably foolish things
That end up with
Catastrophic consequences
And this of course is what happened with the Japanese
So the question you have to ask yourself
Is what is President Trump going to do
As his level of desperation increases
And by the way
You catch glimpses of how desperate he is
On occasion
When you sort of watch his body language
And you watch what he's saying
About the war against Iran
He understands
Full well
That he's in deep trouble
And I'm sure his advisors are telling him
That if we don't shut this one down
We could go off a cliff
His advisors, especially his economic advisors
Are not fools
They understand what's going on here
And they're looking for an exit ramp
And they can't find one
And they understand full well
That the Iranians are playing hardball with them
And I'm sure they understand
Full well that the Iranians have powerful cards to play
And what's happening
I'm sure behind closed doors
I'm sure that behind closed doors
The level of desperation
Is increasing every day
And they're searching
You know, they're looking for a solution here
But as you and I were saying before
Where is the solution?
Where is the exit strategy?
You know, a number of my friends
Who I talked to about this say
What President Trump should do
Is declare victory and get out
He can't do that
Who's going to believe that
That he achieved a victory
Furthermore, the other side gets a vote in this one
And the other side's not going to quit
Right
They're going to continue to put pressure on the United States
And they're going to continue to put pressure on Israel
Even if we say we won
They won us completely out of the Middle East
This is truly remarkable
One of their demands is they just want us to go home
Is President Trump going to declare victory and go home?
I don't think so
He made the clear victory
But he's going to stay there militarily
Maybe not employ military force against Iran
But we'll be there
And the Iranians will continue to attack us
So declaring victory and getting out
So to speak
Where does that leave?
You know where
So he's got to figure out a way to shut this one down
And that means reaching some sort of
Notice the then die with Iran
How does that happen?
You know
Again, this goes back to our earlier discussion
Of those that 15 point plan
That Trump put forward
And then the various demands
That the Iranians are putting forward
How do you find some bargaining space there?
And again, I don't see how you do it
You know, the Iranians have no incentive
Well, they run in the demands
They seem excessive
However, they're also achievable
It appears because
Not only can distract the bases
But as I mentioned, as long as they control the straightover moves
They can squeeze the gold states to decouple
In terms of either, you know, not rebuilding the bases
Or hosting the troops
They can decouple from the petrol
There's a lot of things they can do
Which, you know, they continue to do
Even if Trump goes home and declares victory
So it is a difficult position
But in terms of the pressure, though
I think this is also a problem with all the pressure
Which has been put on Iran
Because not only do they have a lot of cards to play
If they decide to go up the escalation ladder
But also, they can't really afford to go back to this status quo either
I mean, they've been living decades under this crippling sanctions
They had two surprise attacks on their country
On the few months in between
They don't want another one
And also, even if they get an agreement saying
Oh, we promised not to attack you
You know, it was just
These surprise attacks happened during negotiations
There's no trust anymore
So I think they are in a position where
Not they only have a lot of cards to play
But they're willing to absorb an immense amount of pain
In order to put a final end to this
Which, as you said, would be to expel the U.S. bases
And again, it sounds excessive
But they're already pulling out of Iraq
And this is after 23 years
So it's not inconceivable
Again, as you said
They can shut down the gold states as well
If they don't fall in line
So it's just hard to see
Except, you know, if he's reaching for a nuclear weapon
What else he can possibly do to
Push this one back
But sorry, you were
Yeah, I just want to make two points
Just to piggyback on what you said
One thing we haven't talked about
Which is enormously important
Is the Houthis and the Saudis
I mean, the Houthis and the Iranians together
Can shut down the Red Sea
And about 20% of the world's oil and gas comes through
The Persian Gulf and through the Strait Oramuz
But another 12% comes through the Red Sea
And if the Houthis join in with the Iranians
Which is a serious possibility
And they shut down the Red Sea as well
That will further exacerbate
The situation
So we don't want to lose sight of that
But also Glenn, just building on what you said a minute ago
And of course I agree completely with what you said
It is important to emphasize
That Iran is dealing with an existential threat here
The Israelis especially
But also the Americans want to wreck their state
They talk about regime change
But the Israelis are interested in more than regime change
They want to destroy Iran
They want to do to Iran what happened to Syria
They want to break it into pieces
They want to make Iran
A number of states
Or one single state that is remarkably weak
This is an existential threat
And when you face an existential threat
And as you pointed out
They've faced this existential threat
For a long period of time
They know they can't trust the Americans in the Israelis
Given that
Given that dimension of the equation
They have a deep-seated interest in continuing this war
And pushing the Americans and the Israelis
To make huge concessions to them
So if you look at their incentives
And you marry that to their capabilities
Going up the escalation ladder
Which we've talked about
And which you were just talking about
Again, you just say to yourself
How do you end this one quickly
It just it doesn't make sense
From an Iranian point of view
And given that they get a vote
You can't get a deal
This is why it's so
Dangerous when a strategic situation
Boils down to all or nothing
This is when countries are willing
To do a lot of crazy things
But it's this
If there was a possibility though
For example
If the U.S. realized it can't dislodge Iran from Hormuz
If it realizes the difficult position
If there was a situation where
Trump could offer the Iranians
You know, you can co-manage the
Strait of Hormuz with the Gulf states in return
We remove the sanctions
Trump can say
This
Are bringing our home troops
Our troops home from the Middle East
According to our grand strategy
You know, the Iranians
And now have peace with the Gulf states
You know, he sold the Shias in the problem
I mean, it could come as a victory
But it seems hard to achieve
Now that he keeps doubling down
On this
It's very
Dangerous rhetoric
That, you know, even what Sean Hannity
On Fox News
Are doing that
The Iranians should also pay for
The war
You know, for all the bombs
We had to drop on them
It's just
I think it's rhetoric is becoming
A key problem though
By overselling this victory
He proclaimed
I
If I can just say something very quickly here in Glenn
I think what happens in situations like this
Is that when
When the war goes south
The people who got you into the war
Don't want to retreat
They don't want to say
We were wrong
Let's pull back
That
That's not their response
Almost always
The response is instead
Let's double down
So the Wall Street Journal
Sean Hannity
Lindsey Graham
General Jack Keane
That whole crowd that helped
Produce this disaster
fully understand what's happened
And they don't want to retreat now
And concede defeat
What they want to do is double down
And they are putting pressure on President Trump
To up the ante
And they are making arguments
That we can win
We have cards to play
We can go up the escalation ladder
So the problem that Trump faces
Is that
He and his advisors
Surely understand that
There is a great deal of truth
And what people in what people like you
Glenn Deeson
And me John Mirsheimer think
They understand that
But at the same time
They have all these people on the other side
And these are their close supporters
These are their compatriots
Who helped get them into this mess
Who were telling them
That we can get out of it
And they're of course spinning all sorts of stories
About how we do it
And this will go
This means that the war will probably go on
For, you know, a couple more weeks
Before
We're on the verge of falling off the cliff
And at that point it may just be too late
So this is why
We shouldn't be too optimistic
About President Trump
Figuring out
That he's in a desperate situation
And in that case
What he ought to do
Is back off and try to work out a deal
Well an important component of this war though
Is of course Israel
They're the ones who launched the first strike care
And you often make the point
That, you know, if US and Israeli interests
And security was, you know, completely aligned
Then there wouldn't be a need for the lobby
But again, there is a lobby
Which suggests that these differences have to be, you know, ironed out
How do you see this being impacted by
When the US has to get out of this war
Because, you know, the Israelis have been loving for this war now
For what, 30 plus years
For an attack on Iran
They finally got it
If the US leaves now, Iran's going to probably end up in a much, much more favorable position
So do you see a
Break or further break at least in US-Israeli relations
As a consequence of this war
I know it's not over yet
You know, we can still
Some unknown directions this war can take
But well, what are the risks, you think of the US and Israel
I guess parting ways to some extent
Well, as you know, I think that in almost all cases
Certainly in the past when
Israel's interests and America's interests pointed in opposite directions
The United States always did what was in Israel's interests
In large part because of the power of the lobby
And I've argued, or I should say Steve Walton, I have argued for long
For a long time
That this is not in America's national interest obviously
But it's also not in Israel's interest
Either
But this could be a very different case
Because if we're in a situation where it looks like
The global economy is going to crash
I think that would lead President Trump
To just tell the Israelis and to tell the lobby
He doesn't care what they think
He's going to do everything he can to avoid going off the cliff
This sort of thing
So this could be a different case
This could be a case that in a sense contradicts the basic argument
That Steve Walton and I lay out in our work on the lobby
There's another dimension to this that bears mentioning
It's a very sensitive subject
But
Almost everybody I know
Believes that Israel and the lobby
Let us into this war
And if it's a catastrophe
There is a great danger
That people will say that the Jews are responsible for causing this war
Which is simply not true
Because huge numbers of Jews oppose this war
And the Israel lobby is comprised of Christian Zionists
As well as Jews
And by no means to all Jews
Belong to the lobby
So it's very important to understand that
But nevertheless there is a real danger here
That if this war goes south
In a serious way
We go off a cliff
We hit the iceberg
Whatever
Frazier want to use
And people see it as a war
That Israel and the lobby
Is principally responsible for
That would cause a wave of anti-Semitism
Not just in the United States
But outside the United States as well
And I actually think that a lot of people inside of the lobby
And a lot of Israelis
And certainly a lot of American Jews
Understand this danger here
So I think if it looks like we're going off the cliff
I think the lobby would not put much pressure on Trump
To cut a deal with the Iranians
Because of the potential
Threat of massive
A massive increase in anti-Semitism
As a result of a lost war
A catastrophic war
That's blamed on Israel and the lobby
I think you're probably correct in this
And what it also has to be said
That a lot of the leading critics
Within the US of Israel
Are American Jews
So it's not as if
And a lot of the hardcore scientists are actually Christian
So to just say
Everything Israel's to compare to Judaism
I think would be the wrong direction to take
And but of course the racist are
Rarely, you know, purely rational, of course, in their rhetoric
But no, I see that danger as well
How do you see the Europeans in this
Because they play the very strange role
They, you know, they initially
They, well, they weren't invited
And then they suggested that they would send weapons
Trump didn't want their weapons
Because he already won
Now he wants them to open up the street of our moves
They don't want to
Because, you know, it's too late
It's, you know, it's all
I think it's easy to use the iceberg
And the Titanic metaphor
I think it was a French general who said that
You know, the Titanic already hit the iceberg
And now Trump invites us to join
You know, like he says
He should have invited us before at least
This is more or less the argument
But how do you explain the European position on this
And how I guess to widen it further
Do you think this would affect the NATO
Because Trump already
On more than one occasion
argued, you know, NATO now is a paper tiger
Or mark my words
Because you'll remember this in a few months time
We will remember you betrayed us
You know, you didn't come to help us
We do everything for NATO
Marco Rubio said
You know, Ukraine is not America's war
It's a European war
And we helped you
And you don't help us
So it looks like they're building up a case
Against the Europeans and against NATO
I was just wondering how do you see this dimension of the war
Because it is an important
You know, it would have further ripple effects
Is my point
You know, a lot of points to be made here
One thing that, you know, gets lost
In the discourse today
Because the focus is laser-like on Iran
Is the Ukraine war
And if the Ukraine war were to go south this summer
The Ukrainian military were to start losing in a serious way
On the battlefield
This would have disastrous consequences
For Trump, for NATO
And for transatlantic relations
So we want to keep in the back of our mind
That there is this other
I would say impending disaster out there
That could make a bad situation worse
But just focusing on the Iran situation
You know, here we are again
With the Americans doing something
Not consulting the Europeans
Getting into trouble
And then asking the Europeans for help
And the Europeans, of course, understand
Full well that this is a lost cause
And they don't want to get involved
I mean, the idea is hit
You know, European countries should send their navies
To join the American Navy as they try and push through the strait of Hormuz
With naval power alone
This is, you know, crazy
The American Navy, the most powerful navy in the world
Won't even go near the strait of Hormuz
Right? For fear that
Iranian cruise missiles will sink those American naval vessels
The idea that the French Navy or the British Navy is going to
Be this huge force multiplier
That allows our Navy
Plus their navies
To forge through the strait
It's kind of crazy
Who believes that
You know, we're talking about
1915 all over again
When the British Navy tried to push its way through the dark nails
And ran into mines and had to turn around
I mean, it's just not going to happen
And, you know, there's all this talk about
Maybe using ground forces
This is not a serious argument
Ground forces
And the European ground forces
You, you, you a few in number
You really think the European armies are ready to invade Iran
Or conquer, you know, Carg Island or any other island
I mean, this is just not in the cards
And of course, what's happening here is Trump is desperate
And now he's blaming the Europeans
Right
He understands is he's going to lose
And he's got to blame somebody else
It can't be him
After all, he's a genius
Right, he's one of the great strategists of all time
So this disaster can't be his fault
So whose fault is it?
Well, it has to be the Europeans fault
All we needed was for them to come into the fight
And we would have won
But they didn't come into the fight
Because they're useless
They're just free riders
And that's why we lost
It wasn't my fault
So that's what's going on here
And the Europeans play right into his hands
Because the Europeans hardly ever stand up to him
And as the Iranians, the North Koreans
The Chinese and the Russians have demonstrated
There's only one way you deal with President Trump
And that is you stand up to him
If you behave like Mark Ruda
He's going to walk all over you
He's a classic bully
Everybody should have figured that out by now
If you show weakness
As the Europeans consistently do
With the exception of the Spanish Prime Minister
If you show weakness
If you behave like Mark Ruda
President Trump is just going to slap you around
And continue to slap you around
Because again, he's a bully
So I guess the US will blame
Europeans for Iran
The Europeans seemingly are planning to blame
The US for Ukraine
So there will be a big blame game going around
But it's an interesting dynamic
As you suggest, there's
You know, if the Iran war
Which can't be contained
Spreading everywhere
If that was the only thing
It would be one thing
But there's so many other variables that play
Which won't stay constant
At any point we could have an
Underriveling global economy
The Ukraine war can go
Spiraling into a collapse
So it's very difficult to
I guess to bet on a wider strategic stability
As things in Iran
Goes terribly wrong
But at this point
Do you see any final
If Trump decides to go up the escalation ladder
Is there any
Possible final solution
He can go to
You were dismissive of the
Ground the ground operation
Sending in boots on the ground
Because this appears to be
No matter how foolish it is
And leaders often double down on
You know foolishness
But
But the troops are on their way
Thousands of US soldiers
It's unclear how they're going to use them
I thought
The way they would
The most
What would make most sense
I guess would be to invade Yemen
Or something to make sure
That the Red Sea wouldn't be closed off
But anything else
And that as well, by the way
Sounds like a disaster
I'm not sure
What do you see the possibility
Of using these troops for
I would just point out too
That when we did desert storm
Back in 1991
Remember we invaded
Or we attacked with ground forces on February 24th
1991
The attacking forces
Comprised about 700,000 troops
And of that 700,000 troops
540,000 were American
540,000
And a lot of those forces were
Mechanized infantry divisions, armored divisions
Then in 2003 when we invaded Iraq
The total force was about 300,000
I would estimate about 190,000 were US troops
And probably about 45,000
So were British troops
And again
Many of those units that went into Iraq in 2003
Like in 1991
Were mechanized infantry and armored divisions
And as you know, Iraq is a much smaller country
Than Iran
Geographically
And it has a much smaller population
What are we talking about here
We're talking about sending a couple thousand troops
Maybe 10,000 at the most
I don't think the numbers 10,000
I think, you know, all total
At this point were more or less committed
To sending probably about five or six thousand
When you look at, you know, what we're actually doing
And just don't listen to the rhetoric
But even if it's 10,000
They're light infantry
10,000
Just think about those numbers that I was giving you
For desert storm in 1991
And for the Second Gulf War in 2003
What are you going to do with light infantry
Then the question is were you going to put them
You know, we have about 13 bases in the Middle East
Almost all those bases have been evacuated
Because the Iranians have slammed those bases
They've done great destruction to American military bases in the region
This tells you that our bases are vulnerable
So where are we going to put these troops
So that they don't get hit
Like the bases got hit
What bases are we going to put them on
And what kind of equipment are they going to use
To go into places like Carg Island
Or the Iranian mainland
Or what have you
And what's going to happen when they get there
Are the Iranians just going to say
This is a
A fate of complete
There's nothing we can do about it
Or do you think the Iranians are going to fight back
I mean we know the Iranians are going to fight back
So what are you going to do with a handful of troops
And they talk about taking these small islands
In the straight of Hormuz
There are three of them
One is bigger than the other two
I don't think that that's going to work out very well
The Iranians will go to Great Lakes to defend those islands
And if we take the islands
They'll pummel the troops on the islands
And furthermore they've told the UAE
That if that happens and they cooperate
With the Americans and the UAE
Is bent on cooperating with the Americans
They're going to basically wreck the UAE
So what are we going to gain by taking those small islands
Well people might say we can open the straight of Hormuz
I don't think that's true at all
First of all if you're on the verge
You the Americans are on the verge of opening the straight
They'll mind the straight
And minds are deadly effective ways
Of preventing ships from coming through the straight
But let's assume that I'm wrong
And the ships come in
To the Persian Gulf
They can make their way into the Persian Gulf
It'll be like a shooting gallery
Right?
Those ships are being a narrow body of water
The Iranians will be on one side of the Gulf
Facing this target rich environment
They have huge numbers of cruise missiles
They have all these fast boats
They have additional mines
They can lay in the Persian Gulf
They can wreak havoc
But let's assume I'm wrong
Then we go to Carg Island
Right?
We have an amphibious assault
On Carg Island
To put it in Lindsey Graham's terms
We have E.O.G. Matoo
What are we going to do then?
As I said before
Are we going to cut off the flow of oil at a Carg Island?
No, we're not
Not if we're smart
Because we're letting all of this
Iranian oil out on the market now
Because we need it
So invading Carg Island
And cutting off 90% of the flow of
Iranian oil into global markets
Makes no sense at all
And furthermore
Once you take Carg Island
Let's say you take it
Do you think the Iranians are going to sit there
And just leave you alone?
They're not going to do that
They're going to bomb the island
They're going to bomb your troops
With ballistic missiles
With drones
And make life miserable for you
And
Furthermore
What's the story as to how taking Carg Island
Or taking those three islands in the strait
Actually produces
Alastin settlement here
Again the Iranians
You don't want to forget
Or facing an existential threat
And when you're facing an existential threat
You have to fight to the death
You have to fight to the death
That's the way this works
You're dealing with an existential threat
And they have lots of cards to play
Again, we were prepared to win a quick and decisive victory
We have this cock-a-mainly strategy
That didn't work out
We ended up in a war of attrition
And once you're in a war of attrition
They hold
I would argue almost all the cards
And if you don't think they hold
Almost all the cards
They hold many cards
And they have the ability
To cause enormous trouble
As we've talked about on the show here
So you know
The ground force is option
I don't know what people are talking about
And by the way Glenn
Just to
You know beat a dead horse here
You remember how long we prepared the troops
For desert storm
When did Saddam invade Iraq?
I think it was August 2nd of 1990
August 2nd of 1990
And when did we launch those ground troops
Against the Iraqi army
It was February 24th 1991
So you went from August of 1990
Early August of 1990
To late February of 1991
That was the time it took
To build up the forests
Train the forests
And then launch the offensive
That's a long time
And as I said before
It was a huge army
540,000 troops
And the same thing is true
With the 2003 offensive
We just didn't do that overnight
President Trump made no preparations
For a ground war
For February 28th
This is something that
He and his
Advisors have
Recently invented
As a way to deal with this problem
They just sort of pulled that out of their back pocket
Oh, we'll
Do ground forces
That let's see what we can do
To invade Iranian health territory
So that's what they're talking about doing now
It was no planning for this
There's no strategy there
We're basically screwed
And as you said
The
Iran is about four times as large as
Iraq
It's
Mountness
It's facing down
On the other Gulf states
Which are essentially flat deserts
They have the whole coastline
I mean it's a fortress
And populated by more than 90 million people
And they've been preparing for this
Ever since the bush
Called them
They put them in the axis of evil
So
It is
So you're right to put together a few thousand troops
And you know
Ship them down there
With a make up the plan
As you sail down there
It
It does sound very
Cartoonish
Not the way
One one fights a war
So
Yeah, it's it's not reassuring though
When you have this kind of
Desperation
This much at stake
And
Yeah
It seems like someone's going to do something very rash
When things start to go very wrong
I don't know, I'm just very
Yeah, pray that no one's reaching for the nuclear weapons for a quick fix
But
Yeah, but that's another chapter
We can look at a different time
Do you have any final thoughts before we wrap up?
Just one final thought
You know people like us are frequently
critical of the deep state
And people on both sides of the political spectrum are critical of the deep state
But the reason that you have a powerful state
The reason you have powerful institutions like the CIA and the Pentagon
And analogous institutions in Russia, China, and so forth and so on
Is because you need a lot of expertise
You need a lot of people who can help you staff problems
In other words, if you decide that you're going to invade
Iraq in 2003
You just can't do it by yourself
If you're the president and with a handful of advisors
You have to have lots of experts
You have to have lots of help
Thinking about how to deal with the problem
And how to execute the right strategy
And so forth and so on
And the problem with President Trump
Is he doesn't have any respect
What's so ever for institutions
And certainly for the deep state
Which he views as a mortal enemy
Because he thinks the deep state
Opposed him in all sorts of ways during his first term
So you have this actually very interesting situation
Where he does not rely on experts at all
He relies on Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner
And Lindsey Graham
These people are not
Serious strategists
These are not people who are capable
Of thinking through how to deal
With major foreign policy issues
Or questions of war and peace
They can't do that
And again, the reason that you have a deep state
Is because inside that deep state
Is all sorts of expertise
I don't want to paint two posts
Rosie a picture of the deep state here
But there is an upside to having a deep state
And Glenn, it is very important to understand
That all of the evidence that's in the public record now
Says that the deep state was
It was at least
Very doubtful as to whether this would work
This war
And maybe was even opposed to it
If you listen to what General Kane
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Was saying before the war
And what he's been saying since the war started
And you listen to what the Pentagon was saying
Absent Pete Hegseth, of course
And you look at what the intelligence community was saying
Especially the National Intelligence Council
It's quite clear that the deep state
Was highly skeptical
Of this operation
And for good reason
Because as you and I know
Anybody who understands basic military history
Knows that the idea that you're going to get regime change
With air power alone
Is a delusional perspective
Right
So the deep state in this case
Was not consulted
Did not provide any expertise
Right
And instead what President Trump did
Was he relied on himself
Because of course he thinks he's a genius
And he
To the extent he relied on anybody
He relied on people like Jared Kushner
And Steve Whitkoff
And Lindsay Graham
And Rupert Murdoch
Who was calling him all the time
And so forth and so on
And you know people on Fox News
And you name it
But you don't go to war
Relying on people like that
You need experts
You have to really think these things through
Is we know very well
You and I
When you go to war
The potential for disaster is great
It is the realm of unintended consequences
Right
This is one of the central messages and closements
For anybody who's read closements
You understand very quickly
What going to war is in many ways a giant crapshoot
And you want to do everything you can
To maximize the chances that you'll be successful
And the way you do that
Is you rely on smart people
You tell smart people to turn their critical faculties on
And to think about what's the best strategy
For pursuing a particular goal
And ask people at the same time
Is this goal worth while pursuing
You know can we come up with a strategy
That will allow us to achieve the goal
And so forth and so on
But you just had none of that
With President Trump
In his decision making
That led up to
The
War that's now ongoing
And on top of all that
Not to get too carried away here
But he relied on the Israelis
Who were selling him a bill of goods
Really quite remarkable
He was bamboozled by
Prime Minister Netanyahu
So here we are
And
And again
I just want to say one more time
What happened here was foreseeable
It was foreseeable
You did not have to be a strategic genius
To understand what was going to happen
And again the deep state
I believe understood this
Well understand
Why Trump would have been
Distrustful though
Of the intelligence agencies
And the permanent bureaucracy
Due to the whole Russia gate of fear
In his first presidential term
But
Again I couldn't agree with you
More than being said
You still need those guys
And the fact that the idea that you can replace them
With a crew of people you trust
Which consists of your friends
From the real estate
Business, your family members
Some people from the media
From Fox News
And
Yet that this will be the replacement
I mean that sets up a whole
New category of problems
So no
I
It's a
Yeah, no it's a real mess
Anyways
It's
Whenever we talk about the Ukraine war ends
On a very dark note
I don't think
Well
It's a
Any positive spin one can put on this war
It's
Gonna be a real mess
So
Thank you very much for taking the time
Welcome Glenn
All I will say is
I hope that before I die
You and I have a conversation
Where we can have an optimistic conclusion
To what we say over the course of the show
It does seem like we're a long way
From that point however
And I look forward to that
Hopefully that opportunity
So thanks
You're welcome

Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast

Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast

Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast
