John Mearsheimer: "Iran Holds All the Cards" - The Strategic Defeat of the U.S.

Welcome back. We are joined again by Professor John Merchheimer, so thank you very much for coming on the program. I am

I was hoping today we can yeah, maybe first take a step back and look at the her wider strategy of the United States on their Trump because

I was quite optimistic about his reelection that is he seemed to be

capable of breaking from you know narratives and ideologies which I think the political West followed

blind love the past decades and this seemed to be a requirement to navigate

Or adjust at least to the new realities of the world which was that the unipolar distribution of power was gone

So he recognized us couldn't be everywhere. So it's more or less suggested

You know, we have to go to the Western Hemisphere and East Asia, which means we have to pivot out of the Middle East and Europe and

That meant ending the war with Russia. This trapped US resource in Europe and it pushed Russia towards China and also in the Middle East

He was quite consistent on ending the forever war. So

Overall what I'm trying to say is

although, you know, he's you know

A man who's not very civilized in his demeanor. What he said was a lot more rational than what I heard from other politicians

So that's why I wanted to hear from you. What do you make of his direction his direction now?

What's gonna happen to the pivot to Asia and this wider

strategy which we saw outlined in the

National security strategy of December 25th. I think Glenn

The best evidence of what you're talking about regarding how people like us thought about Trump

initially in terms of foreign policy

And what people think now is

reflected in the lineup of people

On judging freedom judge Napolitano show and of course both you and I are regulars on the judges

I think if you go back to the first

Maybe six seven months after President Trump was elected

Virtually everybody who appeared on that show

Was quite optimistic that Trump would represent

positive movement in terms of American foreign policy

That there would be no more forever wars

He wouldn't start any new wars period

Uh, and there would be much lamp much less emphasis on a militarized foreign policy

And I think most importantly at the time I think we all thought that there was a reasonable chance

He would shut down the Ukraine Russia war

So there was a lot of optimism about him and of course a lot of the people on the show

The Americans didn't vote for Trump some did but everybody I think was generally pretty enthusiastic about the direction that he was gonna

Take the United States. I think now if you watch

Judging freedom almost everybody on that show

Is and I'm choosing my words carefully here very critical of President Trump

That he is seen to have blown it

To miss a terrific opportunity

To change the direction that American foreign policy was going in

And if anything he's on the old path

Uh, I think the key issue today

Uh, is the Iran war and

All I can say is it's truly remarkable that he allowed himself to fall into this trap

Uh, this is much worse than Afghanistan much worse than Iraq

Uh, I mean if you think about the Iraq war in 2003 at least in the initial stages

uh

George W. Bush could land on the aircraft carrier and effectively declare a mission accomplished

Which is another way of saying we won

Trump can't do that. It's been clear almost from the beginning

That this is the lost cause

Uh, but more importantly

Uh, the potential for really

Serious damage here

Uh, is enormous

Uh, and here we're talking mainly about the international economy

But not only the international economy

So he's entered a war that he can't win and could have

And one could argue is likely to have catastrophic consequences

Uh, for the world uh, not just for him and his presidency

So it's really quite remarkable when you think about it

Where he has ended up in a in a in a quite short period of time

Uh, you know, he was

Put in office January 20th of 2025

And the war started against Iran on February 28th, 2026

That's effectively 13 months after he's in office

So he starts off looking like he has a winning strategy

Uh, but 13 months later uh, he's jumped into a huge quagmire that he can't get out of

Uh, truly amazing

Well, we're going to optimism though

It's uh, I wouldn't say that it was uh, rooted in being naive

Because if you look, he did have a first term

And unlike all his predecessors uh, you know, going back to World War II

He didn't start any new war so he seemed to follow through on his uh, rhetoric

So that that's why this has come as a bit of a surprise

How many you know, he's his foreign policy in the second time around

Why he went down this path

But how do you make sense of the demands he's making now

Because you said he can't really get out of this

But if you listen to his language, he suggests that the Iranians are now begging for a deal

They're offering him all these ships full of oil

If they just uh, you know, he will be so kind to give them a deal

And the Iranians are simply saying they're not even talking to the US at the moment

So how do you make sense of it?

Because the demands he put for the Iranians, it was essentially full capitulation

It was uh, no nuclear enrichment

Uh, it's no ballistic missiles

Uh, no partnership with regional allies

It's uh, capitulation I think would be a good description

Well, I think the words that he used that always stick in my head, Glenn

are unconditional surrender

Right

And by the way, if you look at the 15 point plan

That he's now putting forward to the Iranians

As the bases for working out a deal

It looks like unconditional surrender

And when I first saw the 15 point plan

I thought it was a joke, I thought that, you know, uh, this was disinformation

That the Iranians or the Israelis had put out

I couldn't believe this was a serious plan

Uh, but as you know some some days

President Trump thinks uh, that we've won a great victory

That the war is over with and we just have to uh, sign the documents of surrender

Uh, other days you can tell he's quite desperate

Uh, and uh, he understands that he has made a huge mistake

And that he's got to find an exit strategy

And he really can't

So he goes back and forth

His rhetoric just changes all the time

It's quite remarkable

But the fact is Glenn, he is and we are in profound trouble

Now what's going on here?

We started this war thinking that we would win

A quick and decisive victory

When I say we, I'm talking about the Trump administration

Because people like us of course understood

That this was a cock-a-mainly strategy from the get-go

But the West, the United States and Israel started this war

Thinking that they could employ a shock and awe strategy

Uh, built around decapitation

We decapitate the regime with shock and all the uh,

Iranians and people would rise up in the streets

They'd overthrow the regime

And we would live happily ever after

This was the basic strategy

We had to win a quick and decisive victory for this to work

And it failed

Uh, and by the way, uh, anybody who has a basic understanding

Of international relations

Should have understood that this would fail from the get-go

It was just not going to work

And it didn't work

But then we found ourselves in a protracted war

Here we are

And I don't think most people fully realize it

But the Iranians hold almost all the cards

In a protracted war

Uh, first of all there's no real good exit strategy for Trump

And if he goes up the escalation ladder

Which is the other alternative

The Iranians beat him at almost every step of the ladder

I think it's very hard for most Americans to understand this

Especially people who watch Fox News

And are loyal supporters of the president

They think that we're winning

They listen to him

They say that, you know, we've already won

Why haven't the Iranians signed the surrender papers

But if you look carefully at what's going on here

And you have a basic understanding of military history and military strategy

You see very quickly that we are in terrible shape

As you go up the escalation ladder

So again, the point I'm making to you is

He has no exit strategy

He can't find the exit ramp now

And if he thinks about going up the escalation ladder

He gets stymied on every run

Now, why do I say that?

First of all, Iran can wreck the international economy

It can wreck the international economy

And one could argue that we're sort of heading in that direction

I like to say there's an iceberg out there in the water

And we're heading towards that iceberg

We are the Titanic

And I think President Trump basically understands that

And I think his advisors understand that

And they're trying to turn the ship so that we don't hit the iceberg

But anyway, my point is, my first point is

That Iran can wreck the international economy

Furthermore, it can destroy

Literally destroy most of the Gulf states

Because those states depend on desalination plants

And they depend on oil infrastructure

And those targets are easy for the Iranians to hit

And if the Iranians decided that they were going to go after a country like Saudi Arabia

And take out all their desalination plants

And take out their oil or energy infrastructure

They basically wreck Saudi Arabia

As a functioning society

Uh, then there's the whole question of the Israelis

The Israelis are running out of defensive missiles

The Iranians obviously have lots of missiles

They can do enormous damage to Israel

I don't think they can do to Israel what they could do to countries

Like Saudi Arabia or the UAE

But there's no question that they can do enormous damage

Uh, to, uh, to Israel

Uh, then there's the whole question of ground forces

We should talk more about this

We don't have any serious ground forces option

This is, this is a joke

Right, there's just no ground forces option there

And in fact, if we go down that road, uh, we're just going to make a bad situation

Even worse

Then to take it a step further

What we have to do, what President Trump has to do

To avoid a catastrophe in the international economy

Is he's going to make sure there's a lot of oil

Out there in the global market

There's got to be a lot of oil

This is why he took economic sanctions off of the Russians

Just think about that

We have taken sanctions off the Russians

So that their oil can get out into the market

More importantly for what we're talking about here

We've taken sanctions off the Iranians

And we're allowing

Just think about this

We're allowing Iranian ships to go through the strait of Hormuz

Because we want that Iranian oil out there

In the market

Uh, the global market

So what's happening here is

Although we are bombing Iranians

And doing significant damage to their country

And murdering innocent people

Uh, at the same time

The Iranians are not suffering economically

Uh, so

What this tells you is that

President Trump has to be extremely careful

That he doesn't go up the escalation ladder

Because if he goes up the escalation ladder

The end result is that the Iranians will win

And we will lose in a truly serious way

So we're in deep, deep trouble

It's a good point with the escalation ladder

Like the Iranians have a lot of cards to play here

That is not just to have a shot down the strait of Hormuz

But if they use Yemen to shut down the Red Sea

As you mentioned with Saudi Arabia

Now they're cut off from all access

If you destroy their desalination plants easy

No water

Hit their energy fields

No energy

And in places like Qatar

Where 85% to 90% of the population are foreigners

They would begin to leave

It would only be a desert lift

Which is how they found it

So it is

It's probably one of the most vulnerable countries of the world

Uh, this uh, this state

So it is uh

But you would have thought

They would have considered this before

Going into this war

Because the Iranians were quite open about

What they could do

And what they would likely do

I know Trump said

You know who would have ever have thought

That they would strike US bases around the region

You know, they kept saying

Though this is what we're going to do

We're going to shot down the strait of Hormuz

We're going to attack your bases

And uh, even now in Iraq

Uh, I'm not sure if there's Americans left

But Europeans are pretty much all out

So, uh, after 23 years

So they, they seem to be able to

At least so far achieve

Some of the objectives they set out

Um, but you often made the point

That in Ukraine

A political settlement is unlikely

Because the different sides

They're, you know, the too far part

There's nothing to agree on

But in this instance though

Um, you know

Even if this will only be Trump's opening position

You know, them handing full

Unconditional surrender

Uh, the Iranians also have

Their own conditions

Which makes it very difficult

Even for

You know, Trump to declare victory and go home

So, how do you see this playing out

And is, is there any

Solution to this war at all

I mean, can Trump go home

Uh, here's the problem

I think Glenn

It's twofold

First of all, as you noted

The two sides are miles apart

Uh, uh, on, in terms of their demands

Right, that there's no bargaining space here

And of course, you and I have made this same argument

Regarding the Ukrainians

And the West on one side

And the Russians on the other side

There's just no bargaining space

The demands of each side

Are so

In uh, in

So, at odds with the demands of the other side

You just kind of can't see how you get a deal

That's point number one

Uh, the second point I'd make

Is that

If you're playing a ranz hand

You have no interest in cutting a deal now

You have huge leverage now

Uh, for the reasons I described before

And the longer the war goes on

The more leverage you have

The longer the war goes on

The more desperate President Trump is going to get

Uh, he has to

You know, the Titanic is heading toward the iceberg

And you have got to start changing course now

By the way, you're going to hit the iceberg

That's where we are

Uh, well, you have to look

At, is the yields on 10-year treasury bonds

In the United States

Uh, which many people

View as being in a danger zone

And uh, in a situation where it's only going to get worse

Right

This is really

Potentially disastrous

Right

We have to do something to fix this problem

Uh, this is why President Trump

Said on Monday

Uh, that he was not going

To attack

Iran that evening

Remember he had promised that he was going to attack

Monday evening

I think that was the 23rd March 23rd

And the day of March 23rd in the morning

He called it off

And he said, I'll give him five days

And he's just said, now I'll give them 10 days

What's going on here?

It would be suicidal for President Trump

To launch an all-out attack

On Iranian

Energy infrastructure

This would be nuts

Again, as I said before

We have a deep-seated interest

In making sure there's as much Iranian oil

Out in global markets

As possible

By the way, just

parenthetically

You know, there's all this talk about us

Conquering carg island

And uh, people say

You want to understand that 90% of Iranian oil

Goes through carg island and we can conquer it

I don't think we can conquer it

But let's assume we conquer it

What are we going to do?

Conquer carg island and cut off the flow of oil

Into global markets

We're not going to do that

You remember when President Trump

Said that we bombed carg island

He emphasized very clearly

That he only hit military targets

Why did he do that?

Because he understands again

That you have to get

You have to get that Iranian oil

And you have to get that Russian oil

You have to get all the oil you can

Out into global markets

Because if you look at what's happening in the strait

Right, remember

About 20% of the world's oil comes through the strait

I would argue that today

It's been reduced

What comes through the strait

Has been reduced to about 5%

Of what it was before February 28th

Just think about that

20% of the world's oil comes through the strait

And we're not even talking about fertilizers here

Which is another huge problem

But just oil

20% comes through the strait

And at this point in time

Only 5% of what was going through the strait

On February 27th

Is now going through the strait

This is a huge problem

So this tells you

That we cannot go after

Iranian oil

And wreck their energy infrastructure

And that means the Iranians have huge leverage over us

And the longer this goes on

When you think about the consequences

For the world's food supply

Of all these fertilizers

Not making it through the strait

And then you think about the consequences

Of only 5%

Of the pre-war

Flow of tankers

Through the

strait is now taking place

You see that the potential for disaster is huge

And the Iranians have invested interest in stringing this out

Because the more they string it out

The more desperate President Trump gets

And the more desperate President Trump gets

The more leverage they have

Which really got to cause President Trump to cave

In a major way

Is when he comes to understand

That if he doesn't shift course

The Titanic is going to hit the iceberg

And the pressure is already there

Again, that is why I believe

He did not attack this past Monday

Gave them 5 more days

And has now given them 10 more days

And what happens at the end of the 10 days

If the Iranians don't cave

To his preposterous

15 point plan

Is he going to bomb Iran

Is he going to bomb their energy infrastructure

I don't think so

He has no option here

You know, just getting back your original

Point about 5 minutes ago

To how we got into this situation

How we could have allowed ourselves

To be put in such a vulnerable position

The fact is again, Glenn

They thought they were going to win a quick and decisive victory

I've studied a lot of military history

You see this in so many cases

Countries go to war

And they go to war because they're optimistic about their chances

It makes perfect sense

You don't go to war if you think you're going to lose

President Trump didn't go to war

Thinking he was going to end up in the situation

That he is in now

He went to war

Thinking he was going to do another event as well

Operation

Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee

Bring the Iranians down

Be able to proclaim victory

Have a parade in New York or something like that

That's what he thought

But once that doesn't happen

And you're in a war of attrition

Oh, you are in deep trouble

And you are especially in deep trouble in this case

Because the Iranians hold so many of the cards

And again, the point I'm making to you is

We want to deal now

Trump wants to deal

But he wants to deal on his terms

But he can't get a deal on his terms

And in fact, again, just to repeat myself

Because I think it's such an important point

The Iranians have a vested interest in just letting this one go

And at some point down the road

When they have much more leverage than they do now

Then trying to work at a deal on

That's favorable to them

I think that's an important point

Which, a important people also understand

That the idea that time is on the Iran inside

Because if you look at the military component

The Iranians can continue to just pump out these very cheap drones

You know, it's easy to manufacture

They're cheap

The industrial potential can remain

And this, you know, $5,000 drones are sent

And the US have to use this million-dollar interceptive

Missile

So they can continue to pump them drones

While the US diminishes its potential

So again, time is on their side

And also as you suggest

As I suggested

In the economic era

They're actually making more money now

That the prices are going up

So while the US is

Going somewhere very dark and dangerous

So it does

I can see

If you were advising the Iranians

You would say

You know, you're not in a rush to wrap this one up

Especially when these are the deals

Or the terms they're putting on the table

But

But I was wondering

When he started this countdown

First 48 hours and 5 days and 10 days

It reminded me a little bit about

What he did with the Russians

He was also putting, I think, 50 days

Then he went down to 12 days

You know, when the countdown was over

The Russia was going to be hit by the toughest sanctions ever

And when the clock finally ran out

Instead, you know, he's called Putin

And they agreed to meet in Alaska

So, you know, he just pushed the whole thing aside

But

Is this something similar that can happen here

Because

I guess the difference is that the Russians

Really wanted a deal

But for the Iranians

It's unclear what Trump can actually deliver

Because if they hold on to Hormuz

They can

They can

You know, essentially put up a toll booth

They can get reparations from the Gulf states

For this attack

They can demand that they

Expelled the US bases

Which have already been

Many of them blown up

And they can even

Compel them to ditch the dollar in their energy trade

So

Which links the US

Financially to the region

So they can get everything they want

With military means

Which means Trump really has to have something else to offer

If he wants to get them to the table

I'm just wondering what is it?

If

Again, if Trump calls you

How do he

You know, avoid the iceberg

How do we get out of here

What can he do at this point in time?

The truth is

He is going to have to make

Major concessions

To the Iranians

And it will be clear

When he makes those major concessions

That the Iranians

Won a clear victory

It will be a humiliating defeat for the United States

If he wants to end this

Given what you and I have been saying

About what happens is

You go up the escalation ladder

And the fact that there is no easy exit strategy here

He really has no choice in the final analysis

But to cave in to most of Iran's demands

And accept a humiliating defeat

And that will be extremely hard to do

And it will be extremely hard to do in part

Because of Israel

The Israelis will not want us to make any concessions

The Israelis will want us to continue the war

But I think this will be a case

Where we will be so desperate

To avoid a global catastrophe

The Trump will ignore the Israelis

And do what he has to do

Now he may not do that

Right

He may feel that he just can't

Make the necessary concessions

That the Iranian demands are just too outrageous

And those Iranian demands would be hard for anyone to swallow

Anybody in the White House

Whether it's President Trump, President George H.W. Bush

Ronald Reagan, Franklin D. Roosevelt

The demands that the Iranians are making are really quite amazing

So even if you accept only 75% of them

Or even 50% of them

That would be very difficult to do

And this is the enormous problem that he faces

And one can easily imagine

Let me take away the word easily

One can imagine him not accepting a deal

And just thinking that he can stick it out

And the end result is

Well, basically go off a cliff

Economically

You know, I think a lot of people don't see that

As a serious possibility at this point in time

But I think if you look

At you know, newspapers like the financial times

In the Wall Street Journal

Carefully you look at the business section

The articles that are written about the economy

And about fertilizers

And food and so forth and so on

You see that we could very easily go off a cliff here

We're talking about a serious situation

And it's not clear what President Trump will do

As I like to say Glenn

I think that when you study international history

There are these handful of cases that stand out

Where policymakers get into desperate situations

And when policymakers get into desperate situations

They sometimes roll the dice

They do things that lead to catastrophe

And my favorite example here

Is the Japanese decision making process that led to Pearl Harbor

The United States was squeezing Japan economically

Between actually between the summer of 1940

And Pearl Harbor which was December 7th, 1941

And we really began to squeeze

Starting July 25th, 1941

This is shortly after the

Verumacht invaded the Soviet Union

And we were really putting pressure on Japan after that

And the Japanese were desperate

Because they were heavily dependent on the United States

They were remarkably dependent on the United States

For oil, scrap iron, and scrap steel

And we had basically

Made it impossible for them to import

Those things from the United States

We had frozen their assets

Their economic assets

And they were just desperate

And they understood full well

That attacking the United States at Pearl Harbor

Was likely to end in catastrophe

It's very important to understand this

The Japanese understood

That they were attacking Godzilla

And that it was likely to end in disaster

But they did it anyway

Because they were desperate

And when the level of desperation reaches a certain point

States, countries, leaders

Sometimes do

Remarkably foolish things

That end up with

Catastrophic consequences

And this of course is what happened with the Japanese

So the question you have to ask yourself

Is what is President Trump going to do

As his level of desperation increases

And by the way

You catch glimpses of how desperate he is

On occasion

When you sort of watch his body language

And you watch what he's saying

About the war against Iran

He understands

Full well

That he's in deep trouble

And I'm sure his advisors are telling him

That if we don't shut this one down

We could go off a cliff

His advisors, especially his economic advisors

Are not fools

They understand what's going on here

And they're looking for an exit ramp

And they can't find one

And they understand full well

That the Iranians are playing hardball with them

And I'm sure they understand

Full well that the Iranians have powerful cards to play

And what's happening

I'm sure behind closed doors

I'm sure that behind closed doors

The level of desperation

Is increasing every day

And they're searching

You know, they're looking for a solution here

But as you and I were saying before

Where is the solution?

Where is the exit strategy?

You know, a number of my friends

Who I talked to about this say

What President Trump should do

Is declare victory and get out

He can't do that

Who's going to believe that

That he achieved a victory

Furthermore, the other side gets a vote in this one

And the other side's not going to quit

Right

They're going to continue to put pressure on the United States

And they're going to continue to put pressure on Israel

Even if we say we won

They won us completely out of the Middle East

This is truly remarkable

One of their demands is they just want us to go home

Is President Trump going to declare victory and go home?

I don't think so

He made the clear victory

But he's going to stay there militarily

Maybe not employ military force against Iran

But we'll be there

And the Iranians will continue to attack us

So declaring victory and getting out

So to speak

Where does that leave?

You know where

So he's got to figure out a way to shut this one down

And that means reaching some sort of

Notice the then die with Iran

How does that happen?

You know

Again, this goes back to our earlier discussion

Of those that 15 point plan

That Trump put forward

And then the various demands

That the Iranians are putting forward

How do you find some bargaining space there?

And again, I don't see how you do it

You know, the Iranians have no incentive

Well, they run in the demands

They seem excessive

However, they're also achievable

It appears because

Not only can distract the bases

But as I mentioned, as long as they control the straightover moves

They can squeeze the gold states to decouple

In terms of either, you know, not rebuilding the bases

Or hosting the troops

They can decouple from the petrol

There's a lot of things they can do

Which, you know, they continue to do

Even if Trump goes home and declares victory

So it is a difficult position

But in terms of the pressure, though

I think this is also a problem with all the pressure

Which has been put on Iran

Because not only do they have a lot of cards to play

If they decide to go up the escalation ladder

But also, they can't really afford to go back to this status quo either

I mean, they've been living decades under this crippling sanctions

They had two surprise attacks on their country

On the few months in between

They don't want another one

And also, even if they get an agreement saying

Oh, we promised not to attack you

You know, it was just

These surprise attacks happened during negotiations

There's no trust anymore

So I think they are in a position where

Not they only have a lot of cards to play

But they're willing to absorb an immense amount of pain

In order to put a final end to this

Which, as you said, would be to expel the U.S. bases

And again, it sounds excessive

But they're already pulling out of Iraq

And this is after 23 years

So it's not inconceivable

Again, as you said

They can shut down the gold states as well

If they don't fall in line

So it's just hard to see

Except, you know, if he's reaching for a nuclear weapon

What else he can possibly do to

Push this one back

But sorry, you were

Yeah, I just want to make two points

Just to piggyback on what you said

One thing we haven't talked about

Which is enormously important

Is the Houthis and the Saudis

I mean, the Houthis and the Iranians together

Can shut down the Red Sea

And about 20% of the world's oil and gas comes through

The Persian Gulf and through the Strait Oramuz

But another 12% comes through the Red Sea

And if the Houthis join in with the Iranians

Which is a serious possibility

And they shut down the Red Sea as well

That will further exacerbate

The situation

So we don't want to lose sight of that

But also Glenn, just building on what you said a minute ago

And of course I agree completely with what you said

It is important to emphasize

That Iran is dealing with an existential threat here

The Israelis especially

But also the Americans want to wreck their state

They talk about regime change

But the Israelis are interested in more than regime change

They want to destroy Iran

They want to do to Iran what happened to Syria

They want to break it into pieces

They want to make Iran

A number of states

Or one single state that is remarkably weak

This is an existential threat

And when you face an existential threat

And as you pointed out

They've faced this existential threat

For a long period of time

They know they can't trust the Americans in the Israelis

Given that

Given that dimension of the equation

They have a deep-seated interest in continuing this war

And pushing the Americans and the Israelis

To make huge concessions to them

So if you look at their incentives

And you marry that to their capabilities

Going up the escalation ladder

Which we've talked about

And which you were just talking about

Again, you just say to yourself

How do you end this one quickly

It just it doesn't make sense

From an Iranian point of view

And given that they get a vote

You can't get a deal

This is why it's so

Dangerous when a strategic situation

Boils down to all or nothing

This is when countries are willing

To do a lot of crazy things

But it's this

If there was a possibility though

For example

If the U.S. realized it can't dislodge Iran from Hormuz

If it realizes the difficult position

If there was a situation where

Trump could offer the Iranians

You know, you can co-manage the

Strait of Hormuz with the Gulf states in return

We remove the sanctions

Trump can say

This

Are bringing our home troops

Our troops home from the Middle East

According to our grand strategy

You know, the Iranians

And now have peace with the Gulf states

You know, he sold the Shias in the problem

I mean, it could come as a victory

But it seems hard to achieve

Now that he keeps doubling down

On this

It's very

Dangerous rhetoric

That, you know, even what Sean Hannity

On Fox News

Are doing that

The Iranians should also pay for

The war

You know, for all the bombs

We had to drop on them

It's just

I think it's rhetoric is becoming

A key problem though

By overselling this victory

He proclaimed

I

If I can just say something very quickly here in Glenn

I think what happens in situations like this

Is that when

When the war goes south

The people who got you into the war

Don't want to retreat

They don't want to say

We were wrong

Let's pull back

That

That's not their response

Almost always

The response is instead

Let's double down

So the Wall Street Journal

Sean Hannity

Lindsey Graham

General Jack Keane

That whole crowd that helped

Produce this disaster

fully understand what's happened

And they don't want to retreat now

And concede defeat

What they want to do is double down

And they are putting pressure on President Trump

To up the ante

And they are making arguments

That we can win

We have cards to play

We can go up the escalation ladder

So the problem that Trump faces

Is that

He and his advisors

Surely understand that

There is a great deal of truth

And what people in what people like you

Glenn Deeson

And me John Mirsheimer think

They understand that

But at the same time

They have all these people on the other side

And these are their close supporters

These are their compatriots

Who helped get them into this mess

Who were telling them

That we can get out of it

And they're of course spinning all sorts of stories

About how we do it

And this will go

This means that the war will probably go on

For, you know, a couple more weeks

Before

We're on the verge of falling off the cliff

And at that point it may just be too late

So this is why

We shouldn't be too optimistic

About President Trump

Figuring out

That he's in a desperate situation

And in that case

What he ought to do

Is back off and try to work out a deal

Well an important component of this war though

Is of course Israel

They're the ones who launched the first strike care

And you often make the point

That, you know, if US and Israeli interests

And security was, you know, completely aligned

Then there wouldn't be a need for the lobby

But again, there is a lobby

Which suggests that these differences have to be, you know, ironed out

How do you see this being impacted by

When the US has to get out of this war

Because, you know, the Israelis have been loving for this war now

For what, 30 plus years

For an attack on Iran

They finally got it

If the US leaves now, Iran's going to probably end up in a much, much more favorable position

So do you see a

Break or further break at least in US-Israeli relations

As a consequence of this war

I know it's not over yet

You know, we can still

Some unknown directions this war can take

But well, what are the risks, you think of the US and Israel

I guess parting ways to some extent

Well, as you know, I think that in almost all cases

Certainly in the past when

Israel's interests and America's interests pointed in opposite directions

The United States always did what was in Israel's interests

In large part because of the power of the lobby

And I've argued, or I should say Steve Walton, I have argued for long

For a long time

That this is not in America's national interest obviously

But it's also not in Israel's interest

Either

But this could be a very different case

Because if we're in a situation where it looks like

The global economy is going to crash

I think that would lead President Trump

To just tell the Israelis and to tell the lobby

He doesn't care what they think

He's going to do everything he can to avoid going off the cliff

This sort of thing

So this could be a different case

This could be a case that in a sense contradicts the basic argument

That Steve Walton and I lay out in our work on the lobby

There's another dimension to this that bears mentioning

It's a very sensitive subject

But

Almost everybody I know

Believes that Israel and the lobby

Let us into this war

And if it's a catastrophe

There is a great danger

That people will say that the Jews are responsible for causing this war

Which is simply not true

Because huge numbers of Jews oppose this war

And the Israel lobby is comprised of Christian Zionists

As well as Jews

And by no means to all Jews

Belong to the lobby

So it's very important to understand that

But nevertheless there is a real danger here

That if this war goes south

In a serious way

We go off a cliff

We hit the iceberg

Whatever

Frazier want to use

And people see it as a war

That Israel and the lobby

Is principally responsible for

That would cause a wave of anti-Semitism

Not just in the United States

But outside the United States as well

And I actually think that a lot of people inside of the lobby

And a lot of Israelis

And certainly a lot of American Jews

Understand this danger here

So I think if it looks like we're going off the cliff

I think the lobby would not put much pressure on Trump

To cut a deal with the Iranians

Because of the potential

Threat of massive

A massive increase in anti-Semitism

As a result of a lost war

A catastrophic war

That's blamed on Israel and the lobby

I think you're probably correct in this

And what it also has to be said

That a lot of the leading critics

Within the US of Israel

Are American Jews

So it's not as if

And a lot of the hardcore scientists are actually Christian

So to just say

Everything Israel's to compare to Judaism

I think would be the wrong direction to take

And but of course the racist are

Rarely, you know, purely rational, of course, in their rhetoric

But no, I see that danger as well

How do you see the Europeans in this

Because they play the very strange role

They, you know, they initially

They, well, they weren't invited

And then they suggested that they would send weapons

Trump didn't want their weapons

Because he already won

Now he wants them to open up the street of our moves

They don't want to

Because, you know, it's too late

It's, you know, it's all

I think it's easy to use the iceberg

And the Titanic metaphor

I think it was a French general who said that

You know, the Titanic already hit the iceberg

And now Trump invites us to join

You know, like he says

He should have invited us before at least

This is more or less the argument

But how do you explain the European position on this

And how I guess to widen it further

Do you think this would affect the NATO

Because Trump already

On more than one occasion

argued, you know, NATO now is a paper tiger

Or mark my words

Because you'll remember this in a few months time

We will remember you betrayed us

You know, you didn't come to help us

We do everything for NATO

Marco Rubio said

You know, Ukraine is not America's war

It's a European war

And we helped you

And you don't help us

So it looks like they're building up a case

Against the Europeans and against NATO

I was just wondering how do you see this dimension of the war

Because it is an important

You know, it would have further ripple effects

Is my point

You know, a lot of points to be made here

One thing that, you know, gets lost

In the discourse today

Because the focus is laser-like on Iran

Is the Ukraine war

And if the Ukraine war were to go south this summer

The Ukrainian military were to start losing in a serious way

On the battlefield

This would have disastrous consequences

For Trump, for NATO

And for transatlantic relations

So we want to keep in the back of our mind

That there is this other

I would say impending disaster out there

That could make a bad situation worse

But just focusing on the Iran situation

You know, here we are again

With the Americans doing something

Not consulting the Europeans

Getting into trouble

And then asking the Europeans for help

And the Europeans, of course, understand

Full well that this is a lost cause

And they don't want to get involved

I mean, the idea is hit

You know, European countries should send their navies

To join the American Navy as they try and push through the strait of Hormuz

With naval power alone

This is, you know, crazy

The American Navy, the most powerful navy in the world

Won't even go near the strait of Hormuz

Right? For fear that

Iranian cruise missiles will sink those American naval vessels

The idea that the French Navy or the British Navy is going to

Be this huge force multiplier

That allows our Navy

Plus their navies

To forge through the strait

It's kind of crazy

Who believes that

You know, we're talking about

1915 all over again

When the British Navy tried to push its way through the dark nails

And ran into mines and had to turn around

I mean, it's just not going to happen

And, you know, there's all this talk about

Maybe using ground forces

This is not a serious argument

Ground forces

And the European ground forces

You, you, you a few in number

You really think the European armies are ready to invade Iran

Or conquer, you know, Carg Island or any other island

I mean, this is just not in the cards

And of course, what's happening here is Trump is desperate

And now he's blaming the Europeans

Right

He understands is he's going to lose

And he's got to blame somebody else

It can't be him

After all, he's a genius

Right, he's one of the great strategists of all time

So this disaster can't be his fault

So whose fault is it?

Well, it has to be the Europeans fault

All we needed was for them to come into the fight

And we would have won

But they didn't come into the fight

Because they're useless

They're just free riders

And that's why we lost

It wasn't my fault

So that's what's going on here

And the Europeans play right into his hands

Because the Europeans hardly ever stand up to him

And as the Iranians, the North Koreans

The Chinese and the Russians have demonstrated

There's only one way you deal with President Trump

And that is you stand up to him

If you behave like Mark Ruda

He's going to walk all over you

He's a classic bully

Everybody should have figured that out by now

If you show weakness

As the Europeans consistently do

With the exception of the Spanish Prime Minister

If you show weakness

If you behave like Mark Ruda

President Trump is just going to slap you around

And continue to slap you around

Because again, he's a bully

So I guess the US will blame

Europeans for Iran

The Europeans seemingly are planning to blame

The US for Ukraine

So there will be a big blame game going around

But it's an interesting dynamic

As you suggest, there's

You know, if the Iran war

Which can't be contained

Spreading everywhere

If that was the only thing

It would be one thing

But there's so many other variables that play

Which won't stay constant

At any point we could have an

Underriveling global economy

The Ukraine war can go

Spiraling into a collapse

So it's very difficult to

I guess to bet on a wider strategic stability

As things in Iran

Goes terribly wrong

But at this point

Do you see any final

If Trump decides to go up the escalation ladder

Is there any

Possible final solution

He can go to

You were dismissive of the

Ground the ground operation

Sending in boots on the ground

Because this appears to be

No matter how foolish it is

And leaders often double down on

You know foolishness

But

But the troops are on their way

Thousands of US soldiers

It's unclear how they're going to use them

I thought

The way they would

The most

What would make most sense

I guess would be to invade Yemen

Or something to make sure

That the Red Sea wouldn't be closed off

But anything else

And that as well, by the way

Sounds like a disaster

I'm not sure

What do you see the possibility

Of using these troops for

I would just point out too

That when we did desert storm

Back in 1991

Remember we invaded

Or we attacked with ground forces on February 24th

1991

The attacking forces

Comprised about 700,000 troops

And of that 700,000 troops

540,000 were American

540,000

And a lot of those forces were

Mechanized infantry divisions, armored divisions

Then in 2003 when we invaded Iraq

The total force was about 300,000

I would estimate about 190,000 were US troops

And probably about 45,000

So were British troops

And again

Many of those units that went into Iraq in 2003

Like in 1991

Were mechanized infantry and armored divisions

And as you know, Iraq is a much smaller country

Than Iran

Geographically

And it has a much smaller population

What are we talking about here

We're talking about sending a couple thousand troops

Maybe 10,000 at the most

I don't think the numbers 10,000

I think, you know, all total

At this point were more or less committed

To sending probably about five or six thousand

When you look at, you know, what we're actually doing

And just don't listen to the rhetoric

But even if it's 10,000

They're light infantry

10,000

Just think about those numbers that I was giving you

For desert storm in 1991

And for the Second Gulf War in 2003

What are you going to do with light infantry

Then the question is were you going to put them

You know, we have about 13 bases in the Middle East

Almost all those bases have been evacuated

Because the Iranians have slammed those bases

They've done great destruction to American military bases in the region

This tells you that our bases are vulnerable

So where are we going to put these troops

So that they don't get hit

Like the bases got hit

What bases are we going to put them on

And what kind of equipment are they going to use

To go into places like Carg Island

Or the Iranian mainland

Or what have you

And what's going to happen when they get there

Are the Iranians just going to say

This is a

A fate of complete

There's nothing we can do about it

Or do you think the Iranians are going to fight back

I mean we know the Iranians are going to fight back

So what are you going to do with a handful of troops

And they talk about taking these small islands

In the straight of Hormuz

There are three of them

One is bigger than the other two

I don't think that that's going to work out very well

The Iranians will go to Great Lakes to defend those islands

And if we take the islands

They'll pummel the troops on the islands

And furthermore they've told the UAE

That if that happens and they cooperate

With the Americans and the UAE

Is bent on cooperating with the Americans

They're going to basically wreck the UAE

So what are we going to gain by taking those small islands

Well people might say we can open the straight of Hormuz

I don't think that's true at all

First of all if you're on the verge

You the Americans are on the verge of opening the straight

They'll mind the straight

And minds are deadly effective ways

Of preventing ships from coming through the straight

But let's assume that I'm wrong

And the ships come in

To the Persian Gulf

They can make their way into the Persian Gulf

It'll be like a shooting gallery

Right?

Those ships are being a narrow body of water

The Iranians will be on one side of the Gulf

Facing this target rich environment

They have huge numbers of cruise missiles

They have all these fast boats

They have additional mines

They can lay in the Persian Gulf

They can wreak havoc

But let's assume I'm wrong

Then we go to Carg Island

Right?

We have an amphibious assault

On Carg Island

To put it in Lindsey Graham's terms

We have E.O.G. Matoo

What are we going to do then?

As I said before

Are we going to cut off the flow of oil at a Carg Island?

No, we're not

Not if we're smart

Because we're letting all of this

Iranian oil out on the market now

Because we need it

So invading Carg Island

And cutting off 90% of the flow of

Iranian oil into global markets

Makes no sense at all

And furthermore

Once you take Carg Island

Let's say you take it

Do you think the Iranians are going to sit there

And just leave you alone?

They're not going to do that

They're going to bomb the island

They're going to bomb your troops

With ballistic missiles

With drones

And make life miserable for you

And

Furthermore

What's the story as to how taking Carg Island

Or taking those three islands in the strait

Actually produces

Alastin settlement here

Again the Iranians

You don't want to forget

Or facing an existential threat

And when you're facing an existential threat

You have to fight to the death

You have to fight to the death

That's the way this works

You're dealing with an existential threat

And they have lots of cards to play

Again, we were prepared to win a quick and decisive victory

We have this cock-a-mainly strategy

That didn't work out

We ended up in a war of attrition

And once you're in a war of attrition

They hold

I would argue almost all the cards

And if you don't think they hold

Almost all the cards

They hold many cards

And they have the ability

To cause enormous trouble

As we've talked about on the show here

So you know

The ground force is option

I don't know what people are talking about

And by the way Glenn

Just to

You know beat a dead horse here

You remember how long we prepared the troops

For desert storm

When did Saddam invade Iraq?

I think it was August 2nd of 1990

August 2nd of 1990

And when did we launch those ground troops

Against the Iraqi army

It was February 24th 1991

So you went from August of 1990

Early August of 1990

To late February of 1991

That was the time it took

To build up the forests

Train the forests

And then launch the offensive

That's a long time

And as I said before

It was a huge army

540,000 troops

And the same thing is true

With the 2003 offensive

We just didn't do that overnight

President Trump made no preparations

For a ground war

For February 28th

This is something that

He and his

Advisors have

Recently invented

As a way to deal with this problem

They just sort of pulled that out of their back pocket

Oh, we'll

Do ground forces

That let's see what we can do

To invade Iranian health territory

So that's what they're talking about doing now

It was no planning for this

There's no strategy there

We're basically screwed

And as you said

The

Iran is about four times as large as

Iraq

It's

Mountness

It's facing down

On the other Gulf states

Which are essentially flat deserts

They have the whole coastline

I mean it's a fortress

And populated by more than 90 million people

And they've been preparing for this

Ever since the bush

Called them

They put them in the axis of evil

So

It is

So you're right to put together a few thousand troops

And you know

Ship them down there

With a make up the plan

As you sail down there

It

It does sound very

Cartoonish

Not the way

One one fights a war

So

Yeah, it's it's not reassuring though

When you have this kind of

Desperation

This much at stake

And

Yeah

It seems like someone's going to do something very rash

When things start to go very wrong

I don't know, I'm just very

Yeah, pray that no one's reaching for the nuclear weapons for a quick fix

But

Yeah, but that's another chapter

We can look at a different time

Do you have any final thoughts before we wrap up?

Just one final thought

You know people like us are frequently

critical of the deep state

And people on both sides of the political spectrum are critical of the deep state

But the reason that you have a powerful state

The reason you have powerful institutions like the CIA and the Pentagon

And analogous institutions in Russia, China, and so forth and so on

Is because you need a lot of expertise

You need a lot of people who can help you staff problems

In other words, if you decide that you're going to invade

Iraq in 2003

You just can't do it by yourself

If you're the president and with a handful of advisors

You have to have lots of experts

You have to have lots of help

Thinking about how to deal with the problem

And how to execute the right strategy

And so forth and so on

And the problem with President Trump

Is he doesn't have any respect

What's so ever for institutions

And certainly for the deep state

Which he views as a mortal enemy

Because he thinks the deep state

Opposed him in all sorts of ways during his first term

So you have this actually very interesting situation

Where he does not rely on experts at all

He relies on Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner

And Lindsey Graham

These people are not

Serious strategists

These are not people who are capable

Of thinking through how to deal

With major foreign policy issues

Or questions of war and peace

They can't do that

And again, the reason that you have a deep state

Is because inside that deep state

Is all sorts of expertise

I don't want to paint two posts

Rosie a picture of the deep state here

But there is an upside to having a deep state

And Glenn, it is very important to understand

That all of the evidence that's in the public record now

Says that the deep state was

It was at least

Very doubtful as to whether this would work

This war

And maybe was even opposed to it

If you listen to what General Kane

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Was saying before the war

And what he's been saying since the war started

And you listen to what the Pentagon was saying

Absent Pete Hegseth, of course

And you look at what the intelligence community was saying

Especially the National Intelligence Council

It's quite clear that the deep state

Was highly skeptical

Of this operation

And for good reason

Because as you and I know

Anybody who understands basic military history

Knows that the idea that you're going to get regime change

With air power alone

Is a delusional perspective

Right

So the deep state in this case

Was not consulted

Did not provide any expertise

Right

And instead what President Trump did

Was he relied on himself

Because of course he thinks he's a genius

And he

To the extent he relied on anybody

He relied on people like Jared Kushner

And Steve Whitkoff

And Lindsay Graham

And Rupert Murdoch

Who was calling him all the time

And so forth and so on

And you know people on Fox News

And you name it

But you don't go to war

Relying on people like that

You need experts

You have to really think these things through

Is we know very well

You and I

When you go to war

The potential for disaster is great

It is the realm of unintended consequences

Right

This is one of the central messages and closements

For anybody who's read closements

You understand very quickly

What going to war is in many ways a giant crapshoot

And you want to do everything you can

To maximize the chances that you'll be successful

And the way you do that

Is you rely on smart people

You tell smart people to turn their critical faculties on

And to think about what's the best strategy

For pursuing a particular goal

And ask people at the same time

Is this goal worth while pursuing

You know can we come up with a strategy

That will allow us to achieve the goal

And so forth and so on

But you just had none of that

With President Trump

In his decision making

That led up to

The

War that's now ongoing

And on top of all that

Not to get too carried away here

But he relied on the Israelis

Who were selling him a bill of goods

Really quite remarkable

He was bamboozled by

Prime Minister Netanyahu

So here we are

And

And again

I just want to say one more time

What happened here was foreseeable

It was foreseeable

You did not have to be a strategic genius

To understand what was going to happen

And again the deep state

I believe understood this

Well understand

Why Trump would have been

Distrustful though

Of the intelligence agencies

And the permanent bureaucracy

Due to the whole Russia gate of fear

In his first presidential term

But

Again I couldn't agree with you

More than being said

You still need those guys

And the fact that the idea that you can replace them

With a crew of people you trust

Which consists of your friends

From the real estate

Business, your family members

Some people from the media

From Fox News

And

Yet that this will be the replacement

I mean that sets up a whole

New category of problems

So no

I

It's a

Yeah, no it's a real mess

Anyways

It's

Whenever we talk about the Ukraine war ends

On a very dark note

I don't think

Well

It's a

Any positive spin one can put on this war

It's

Gonna be a real mess

So

Thank you very much for taking the time

Welcome Glenn

All I will say is

I hope that before I die

You and I have a conversation

Where we can have an optimistic conclusion

To what we say over the course of the show

It does seem like we're a long way

From that point however

And I look forward to that

Hopefully that opportunity

So thanks

You're welcome