March 18th, 2026: Who’s Actually In Charge Of Iran Right Now? & Trump Delays China Trip

It's Wednesday, the 18th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed.

First up, new reports from the US side say there's been back channel communication between the US and Iran. However, the Iranian regime is denying that there are any discussions taking place.

But it does raise a bigger question. Even if messages are being exchanged, is there anyone left to take Iran who could actually make a deal? I'll have the details.

Later in the show, President Trump hits pause on a high stakes summit in China, delaying the visit by weeks as the White House shifts its full attention to the war with Iran. Plus, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan deteriorate even further after a deadly air striking Kabul kills dozens.

And in today's back of the brief, an update on President Trump's efforts to build a Hormuz coalition. As many nations say, thanks, but no thanks. But first, our PDB spotlight.

We'll start today with reports suggesting that the US and Iran may have quietly reopened lines of communication with messages allegedly passed through back channels in recent days as the war continues into its third week.

At the same time, Iranian officials are publicly denying that any such talks are taking place. And President Trump, when asked about it, he said Iranian officials are in fact reaching out but added that the US has no clear idea who those individuals are or whether they actually have the authority to speak on behalf of the regime.

And that gets to the real story here. Because the question is not simply whether messages are being exchanged between Washington and Tehran.

The more important question is who inside Iran still has the authority to make those conversations mean anything.

Now, according to reporting from Axios, the contact, if it is happening, appears to involve US envoy Steve Whitkopf and Iran's foreign minister Abbas Aragchi.

The outreach reportedly came from the Iranian side and was focused on finding a way to end the conflict.

If accurate, that would mark the first significant communication between the two sides since the war began.

But Aragchi has publicly denied it, insisting that his last contact with Whitkopf came before the conflict and dismissing the reports as misleading.

It's entirely possible that both sides are telling a version of the truth.

Quiet back-channel communication is not unusual in a conflict like this, and public denials can serve their own strategic purpose.

Neither side wants to appear as though it's seeking negotiations from a position of weakness.

But even if messages are being exchanged, there's a more fundamental issue at play.

One that raises serious questions about whether any of this communication could actually lead to an agreement.

And that issue is authority inside the regime.

Despite his role as foreign minister, Aragchi was never considered one of the regime's primary decision-makers.

US officials don't believe he has the power to negotiate or commit Iran to any meaningful deal.

At most, he appears to be serving as an intermediary, someone who can pass messages along, but not necessarily someone who can make decisions.

So, who exactly within the regime would he be speaking for?

Prior to recent developments, US officials believed that role was being filled by Ali Laurenjani, who had emerged as a central figure inside Iran's leadership structure following the death of the previous Supreme Leader.

Laurenjani appeared to be acting as a kind of coordinator, bridging the gap between the country's political leadership, its security apparatus and other centers of power within the regime.

In other words, if there was someone capable of negotiating on Iran's behalf, it was likely him.

But with reports now indicating that Laurenjani, by the way, the architect behind the murder of thousands of Iranians during the recent protests has been killed in an airstrike, well, that structure may no longer exist.

And that leaves a significant gap.

The current Supreme Leader, Mustafa Khamenei, has not been seen or heard in public. The only contact he's had with the world has been through several written statements that were attributed to him, but nothing beyond that.

Beyond the absentee Supreme Leader, much of the regime's senior leadership has also been degraded, and it's increasingly unclear how decisions are being made inside Tehran, or whether there is a single unified chain of command at all.

The kind of fragmentation makes meaningful diplomacy extremely difficult, because negotiations are not just about opening a line of communication.

They require someone on the other side who has the authority to make commitments, the ability to enforce those commitments, and the backing of the broader system to ensure that any agreement holds.

So while there may be messages being passed back and forth, that doesn't necessarily bring the two sides closer to a resolution.

If anything, it may reflect uncertainty within the regime itself, different figures reaching out, exploring options, or attempting to create space without the ability to fully control the outcome.

Alright, up next, President Trump delays a major trip to China as the White House focuses on Iran.

While a deadly Pakistani airstrike in Kabul, Afghanistan, leaves dozens dead as tensions between the two countries continue to escalate.

I'll be right back.

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The war with Iran is reshaping the President's agenda.

President Trump is now delaying his planned summit in China with President Xi Jinping by five to six weeks, as he prioritizes staying in Washington.

Now, according to the President, this isn't about canceling the trip altogether. It simply comes down to timing.

Trump told reporters to visit, which was originally scheduled for the 31st of March through the 2nd of April, is being pushed back so his administration can recalibrate urgencies

while the conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate the headlines.

Trump said, quote, we're resetting the meeting, adding that the US is, quote, working with China, and that Beijing was, quote, fine with it.

He also said, quote, we've requested that we delay it a month or so.

Speaking to an event at the Oval Office, the President said he's been in contact with Chinese officials, but when he comes to leaving Washington right now, the answer is no.

He said, quote, I'd love to go, but because of the war, I want to be here. I have to be here, end quote.

As operations in tandem with Israel against Iran continue, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levit said Trump's quote, utmost responsibility right now as Commander-in-Chief,

is ensuring the continued success of Operation Epic Fury, something she says he hasn't taken his eyes off of in nearly three weeks.

The Trump and Xi Summit was expected to focus heavily on trade, coming a year after the tit-for-tat escalation on tariffs between Washington and Beijing that eventually settled into a fragile truce.

Then just last month, you may remember the Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs, reshaping the economic landscape yet again, and setting the stage for what could have been a high-stake round of negotiations with Xi.

But the summit has now become more complicated, because this isn't solely about trade policies anymore.

As we've been tracking, the war with Iran is bleeding into global economic and security concerns, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most vital shipping arteries that heavily services China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Besant pushed back this week on a financial times report, suggesting that Trump's delay in visiting China was tied to the President pressing Beijing to help police the Strait of Hormuz.

Saying any change in timing was not driven by that demand. Still, the pressure is there.

Trump has called on other countries, including China, to help reopen the critical waterway, arguing global energy markets depend on restoring safe passage.

He said last week that American forces have destroyed dozens of Iranian ships capable of laying naval mines, demonstrating the scale of the threat in the ongoing US response.

So, where does that leave US-China relations? Despite the delay, Trump as an optimistic tone, he continues to describe the relationship as, quote, very good, a signal that, at least publicly, both sides are keeping the door open to cooperation.

Still, even before this postponement, expectations for an expansive deal or breakthrough were already tempered.

Economic analysts warned that deep financial and trade tensions between the two powers made any major signings during the summit unlikely.

Okay, I want to shift to the ongoing conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

This week, some of the deadliest attack thus far take place, as a Pakistani air strike on a drug rehabilitation center in Kabul killed dozens.

Now, the strike took place late Monday night. The New York Times reports the death toll at about 75, but officials on the ground, with the red crescent, warned that number could steadily climb.

So, what do we know about the target of this strike? According to Afghan officials, Pakistan's focus was a Taliban-run drug rehabilitation center, with roughly 200 people inside at the time.

A UN assessment found that part of the facility was destroyed, including a section housing about 180 adolescents. In that area, there are expected to be no survivors as recovery efforts intensify.

But Pakistan's account of the strike looks very different. Islamabad acknowledged carrying out the air strike, which was one of at least six, launched across Afghanistan that day, but insists the intended target was an ammunition depot, not a civilian facility.

Pakistan's information minister says the operation was carried out with precision intelligence targeting infrastructure allegedly used by the Taliban government's military wing.

So, as is typical in the midst of a conflict, we have two competing narratives. Afghanistan says this was a civilian facility, while Pakistan calls it a legitimate security target.

Now, I want to point out that this was the third time in recent weeks that Pakistan has hit targets inside Kabul, and that alone tells you how quickly this conflict is intensifying.

A Taliban spokesman warned Afghanistan will retaliate, and to better understand how we got here, well, it helps to briefly zoom out.

As we've been monitoring here on the PDB, the escalation has been building for months, but it also reflects a deeper shift in a relationship that not long ago looked very different.

For one, Pakistan was once one of the Taliban's primary backers, but that relationship fractured, as cross-border violence has surged.

Islamabad now accuses Afghanistan's Taliban leadership of harboring terror groups responsible for hundreds of attacks inside Pakistan, particularly along their shared 1,600-mile border, where armed groups operate on both sides.

And until recently, there were still attempts to manage those tensions. Back in October, officials from both countries were meeting regularly.

After a series of clashes along the border, those talks collapsed, and that's what set the stage for what we're seeing now.

Regular listeners of the President's Daily Brief remember that last month, our coverage of this conflict centered on Pakistan, formally declaring what it described as, quote, open war against the Taliban government.

Since then, Pakistani armed forces have carried out dozens of airstrikes, targeting Afghanistan's largest cities, military positions, and broader regions.

It's a campaign that has hit Taliban infrastructure, but increasingly impacted civilian areas.

Now this latest strike stands out for another reason. It marks a deadly single attack since late February, when Pakistan launched airstrikes on more than 20 locations across Afghanistan, killing at least a reported 270.

That round of fighting triggered direct retaliation, with Afghanistan forces attacking more than 50 Pakistani border positions, and Kabul claiming it killed 55 Pakistani troops.

On a less than positive note, both sides, say they're prepared to keep fighting.

Okay, coming up next in the back of the brief, western nations pushed back on President Trump's Hormuz coalition. Have you heard about this? More on that when we come back.

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In today's back of the brief, just one day after the White House laid out plans for a so-called Hormuz Coalition, sort of a coalition of the willing,

that effort is now facing significant and, frankly, somewhat predictable resistance from U.S. allies.

As we told you on Monday, the Trump administration is working to assemble a multinational force to escort commercial shipping through the strait of Hormuz, after the conflict disrupted global oil flows through the critical waterway and sent prices skyward.

But new reporting suggests that effort is struggling to gain traction.

According to Axios, most NATO members in several partner countries have already informed the U.S. that they do not want to participate in the coalition.

In some cases, responses from foreign governments have ranged from skepticism to what one source described bluntly as, quote, hell no.

The U.S. has approached a wide group of countries about joining the effort, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and several Gulf states.

But so far, none have publicly committed naval forces, and several have explicitly ruled it out.

Germany's defense minister made that position clear, saying, quote, this is not our war, we have not started it, end quote.

And European Union foreign policy chief Kayakalis echoed that sentiment, stating there is, quote, no appetite within the EU to join the mission, adding, quote, this is not Europe's war, end quote.

Even among Washington's closest allies, the response appears mixed at best.

President Trump claimed this week that the UK would participate and described French President Emmanuel Macron as, quote, eight out of ten, in terms of willingness to help.

But behind the scenes, well, officials say that assessment may be overly optimistic.

One source told Axios that while London is forward leaning, France has not committed and, quote, at the moment, it's a no.

Contrary to Asia are holding back as well.

Japan and South Korea, both major importers of Gulf energy, have not signed on, despite being directly affected by disruptions in the straight.

And China, for its part, remains notably and predictably quiet.

As we mentioned Monday, Beijing has little incentive to get involved.

Chinese oil shipments are still moving through the straight with relatively little disruption.

And China remains one of the largest buyers of Iranian crude, making it highly unlikely, and I would emphasize highly unlikely, that President Xi Jinping would be interested in sending naval forces into a potential confrontation with Tehran.

At the same time, President Trump has responded with growing frustration.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump said he was, quote, greatly disappointed in countries that have declined to participate, and warned that NATO's refusal to step up could have long term consequences.

In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, he called the alliance a, quote, one-way street, adding that the US spends heavily to protect its allies while receiving little support in return.

He later went even further, lashing out and declaring, in all caps, quote, we do not need the help of anyone.

So on the one hand, the White House is still reportedly trying to build a coalition to help reopen the straight.

But on the other, the President is now publicly downplaying the need for allied support, and signaling that the US may be prepared to move forward without it.

Officials say discussions are continuing behind the scenes, and the US is also conducting strikes on Iranian anti-ship positions along the straight, in an effort to weaken Tehran's ability to enforce the blockade.

But the early pushback from allies and the increasingly sharp rhetoric from the White House suggests that assembling a broad international coalition may prove difficult.

Although, and here's the caveat, if the Iranian regime is able to continue disrupting shipping through the straight, well, the growing economic pain in the global energy market and the consequential rising prices may eventually convince many of the nations that it's in their best interest to provide support to the US.

To secure the straight.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, the 18th of March.

Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com.

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I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin.

Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.