NFL Week 1 Predictions: Game Picks, X-Factors & Bold Fantasy Football Calls (Ep. 2181)

0:00This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Some people use chatGPT to answer questions. Others use it to get real work done. With chatGPT work, you bring the goal. Plus real inputs like briefs, notes, files, feedback, data, and project plans. It can help turn them into an analysis, tracker, deck outline, prototype, or workflow you can review and keep shaping. You stay in control, giving direction and choosing the final output. Put chatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro Plants. Welcome to the tailgate, I'm Alfredo Brown, joined by Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson. Boys, we are previewing, giving our predictions for week one of NFL action. It just feels good. Deeper, I feel kind of like your shirt right now, you know, like when Ironman lands in Ironman 2. It's good to be back. That's exactly how I feel right now. Come on. Should you just make an Ironman reference?

1:00You don't know what this shirt is. What is this shirt that is that not the arc reactor for Ironman? No! What the heck is it? It's the Autobot Matrix of Leadership from Transformers. Oh, dog, I'm not, okay, I'm not that locked in to transform into my bad. Oh, man. My bad. We just derailed the show right here from the beginning. Well, Erickson, you had no idea what it was either. No, Erickson, I know, Clue. I knew Erickson didn't know. No, I know I did. No, it was Ironman to know it was Transformers. No idea. Not a clue. We got up to an awesome start. Good Lord. I feel like when we stumbled at the blocks, boys. That's fine. That's fine. That's what we're here to do. We were here just to keep talking about the fun. It's been a long time. This is a weird week. Monday was Labor Day. There was football on Wednesday. And it wasn't because of some holiday or COVID implication that it was actually supposed to be scheduled for. Wednesday night football game, which we were courting. When you listen to this after that game. So hopefully my Patriots pulled it through. Got the dub. But. Yeah. The first game of the NFL season is in a foreign country on a Wednesday.

2:01Everything feels wrong. I don't even have words. I mean, eventually we're going to get to the point of the NFL schedule where there's a game every single day of the week. International. I just kind of feel like the picture. I'm crazy. I'm going to be crazy. I don't want to play in a moon. Oh, don't be a team in Antarctica. It's going to be. It's going to be fantastic. We can make a big deal with that team. A plays in Antarctica. You see that. Is there a candy factory that are building there too? I believe that there is like a civilization like this city in Antarctica. He's been. No, I was. Rogers a lot. Is that a real. Yeah. Is he a flat or two? I don't know. I don't know. What is Roger stance on that? Because I think that is just been. Where do the flat earthers even think Antarctica is? Where is it? I'm guessing that it's not real. Okay. We have got way too far. Oh, this is real. Yes. Yes. Believes in Antarctica. Another world hiding a secret civilization beneath.

3:03Stop you. This is the trending news. And now we get back at Antarctica. Let us know in the comments. Do you think Antarctica is high? Yeah. Is hiding a secret civilization below ground. How does that affect the. That's the. That's the. It's candy bro. Fine. Stay tuned. That's horrible. That's actually where all the skittles come from. Oh my gosh. Oh. All right. Let's. Let's think of a look at some of the, you know, somewhat more meaningful NFL news here. Boys. Right now the headline that keeps coming out of Kansas City is I'm passionate homes most likely to start week one. And it will just take that as yes he is. Is there any concern here for you guys with the injuries that he's been, you know, recovering from and are we expecting a slow start in Kansas City. Is this headline mean anything to you, D bro? No. He's going to play. And I think that we could see like, you know, if people want to be attacking like the rushing

4:04unders for his props, I think that's definitely a good look on this for the first few weeks of the season. I don't think he's going to be running a ton. But outside of that, what is the chief's offense been over the last few years, dink and dunk, Patrick Maholms, like runs around in a circle for like five minutes and then throws a three yard drag route to Rishi Rice. I mean, outside of the running, I think the offense is probably just going to stay very similar. We're probably going to get the same thing. They're not going to have this starting left tackle in this game. Exactly. So it's going to be a lot of dink and dunk like it has been the last like three years. Speaking of dink and dunk, Erickson, two of us like a Veloah. The name, the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons. It's kind of like getting a perfect attendance for something that you're required to go to. Like he's just the only quarterback that's there right now really. And Michael Pentax has been inactive throughout the entire preseason. He's still currently inactive to a chunk of my low up being starting quarterback Falcons. How are you feeling?

5:04I was listening that two of my not be on this roster. If Michael Pentax wasn't injured. So that's where that with how the Falcons feel confidence wise about to how he played during the preseason. The fact that his blindside blocker is a guy who's already off sides and has already fall started twice. And that's going to be problematic against Pittsburgh Steelers. TJ Watt and that pass rush, hostile environment. This is a bad look for the Atlanta Falcons. I'm all over these Steelers winning this game at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Despite all the talent they have on the opposite side of the football be ja Robinson is going to be peppered peppered with targets. Alt those reception lines six and a half seven and a half eight and a half. I want the overs on all of the be ja because it's going to be to your point off right now. Check down. Cison. Check down. Cison. That is how they pronounce it. Yes. Going to Denver. I know we already talked about Kansas City versus Denver game this week. You've mentioned it's going to be a long story.

6:04And it's really a good one. I'm going to say it's like I've been still reportedly the R.B. One in Denver deep row. Is that sort of a for now or is this just kind of a a. Little bit of pomp and circumstance putting him at the head of the depth chart, but really it's just a big split. I mean I think it's probably going to be a big split, but like I think Jonah Coleman and its going to take himself. Time to work into this split I feel a still think JK Dawpens is going to be the preferred early down guy. Until he's hurt. you know, but staying healthy and stuff. I'd love to see it. I would love to see it. But at this point, I mean, we have questions if it can actually happen. But I think Dobbins will stay the early down guy. I think Archie Harvey is going to be the preferred passing down back. When Coleman gets in LaField and I do think that happens, he's going to have to eat into the early down stuff for Dobbins. I don't think he's going to be the passing down option. Last little bit of news here, Mason Taylor, a name that we barely ever talked about in the fantasy side, has been labeled the Jets Titan one over top 15 pick Kenyon Sedeek from the NFL Drafts this year and round one.

7:06Now, like, this isn't all that surprising because Mason Taylor is just a guy who's ready to play, he blocks well. And can you speak? Missed a lot of time in camp with injury. So, Erickson, do you see this as something again, death chart wise where there's kind of like, uh, the rookie will earn his spot and eventually we'll just see him there more. Or is this one of these things where we're also just looking at the death chart and saying like, it doesn't really matter who's number one, they're both going to play plenty. I think they're both probably play plenty, but I think it's going to be more of a slow burn for Sedeek. I compare it to last year with Colson Loveland and Colcomett where it took a long time for Loveland to really get the reps with the starters, playing a full-time role in the offense. It wasn't until about midway through the season, they commit missed a game and then Colson looked at a monster performance again since the Nadi Bengals and then he was off to the races and Loveland also was dealing with an injury last year as well, entering in the season. So his preparation to the year was kind of truncated similar to Sedeek. So I would follow, or we could see a similar path, I think, for the Jets tight end.

8:10I'm going to do a little more pessimistic here. I kind of worry Sedeek is going to go the route of Terrance Ferguson and the Jets tight end room could just become a rotating cat. Like, I think Jeremy Rucker probably also gets in the mix here. So I think he's getting a laser royote here. Could be. Yeah, I definitely think he's a big, he's a first round pick though. Like those guys get more opportunities to take early on. And he missed all of Rookie Camp and he missed all of training camp. Okay, under over 11 catches for Kenyans to deac this year, because that's was Terrance Ferguson's. That's how many catches Terrance Ferguson had. I was like, that's a hell of a line to drill Terrance Ferguson. I think it's well over. I think the over. So that's not saying anything. Erickson just proved his point deep, bro. And you look foolish now. Ag on your face. All right, we're going to hop into all the games that matter most this week for week one. But before we do that, guys, football's back. And it's time to level up your approach to the NFL and college football this season, because Polly market is here. Polly market is a legal prediction

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10:11really set the tone for the season. So let's start off with the first one here that I think is so interesting since 90 bangles versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What we want to do here is look at a player or a facet of the game that's going to be the biggest X factor and then just give a general prediction of how we think this game is going to go. So, Eric, so why don't you lead us off here with the Tampa Bay since you I'm going to go with my X factor being Chris Godwin who might be the healthiest wide receiver on the Buccaneers currently. Like Bucke has been dealing with some turf toe injury. If you ask Todd Boles, he might as well not have a foot because Todd Boles has no idea what's going on with any of his sweeps next year. Who knows in terms of how healthy they're he's just hoping that they show up on game day and he's like, all right, sweet. We could play this guy this week. So I think Godwin has mostly been healthy this off season. He's going back to a full-time role in the slot, which is where he's been his most productive throughout his NFL career and people forget. But the last game that we saw Chris Godwin play, he balled out. He looked

11:15really healthy, looked good. So I think that given DJ Turner the lockdown quarter of the since-and-a-bengles probably not going to cover Godwin much if he's operating from the slot. So I think that Baker Mayfield's going to feature Godwin a ton in this matchup, which should be pretty high scoring. I like, I don't want to bet the over, but I think that this will probably be near 50 points total. It's just the Bengals are always a wild car when it comes to how fast they start on offense. They've been playing their guys more in the preseason, but they've traditionally been the week one turd every single year with Joe Borough where they come out, don't do anything on offense and they complained about, well, we should have played our guys more in the preseason. So we'll see what things shake out. Usually it's because the week one they play the Browns and the Browns just always have the Bengals number in week one at Cleveland. A couple years ago the Bengals lost to mind knowing the Patriots in a big upset. So they can't be trusted in week one most years. So I think there's going to be points though and I think Chris Godwin is going to have a very productive fantasy outing. Dero, who's your ex-factor in this game and who do you think

12:20when's it? I love the Godwin call of Erickson and then go that direction. I was going to go that direction, but I'll go with Kenneth Gainwell for all the improvements since the 90 Bengals made this off season with their D line with the back end, their safety's, their linebackers are still horrible. They still suck. They're still improving. And I think that Kenneth Gainwell, like, and I'm going to loot to more ameka Buka talk later in this show, but I think ameka is heading for a tough day. I think Godwin is going to eat, but also you got to have somebody else step up in the passing game and I think that's going to be Kenneth Gainwell because they didn't improve the linebackers and this is a Cincinnati defense that quietly give the six most yards per target, second most yac per reception, and third most yards per wrap run to running backs last year. So I think Kenneth Gainwell is a player that's going to factor in early and often. Well, boys, who did you say he's going to win here? Bucks or I give a, I do I have to give a winner. I can give a winner. Let's wait, let's wait, let's wait one second. I'll do my ex-factor and then we'll all pick our win. We're going to cross the ball and this is the end everyone. Yeah, yeah, we'll tack them on it.

13:23Yeah, my ex-factor for this one's going to be Chase Brown. This is going up against a tough Bucks run defense, fifth US rushing arts last season, third US in 2024, and Erickson, like you mentioned, man, the Bengals just get off to a slow start every single year and the Bucks secondary has been improving over the years, but obviously, I mean, the offense is still going to run through Joe Burrow and that passing attack. But if we see the same kind of slow start that Chase Brown had last year for the Bengals, it stunts the offense just enough where it's like, okay, defense is no, there's really nothing else you can do except for, you know, keep playing like you're a 14 year old kid playing Madden and just throw the ball every single play. So that's going to be my ex-factor on the Bengals side. Let's do predictions here. Who ends up winning this Sinsi or Tampa Bay, Erickson will start with you. Bucks cover, but the Cincinnati Bengals win it. I would have actually gone Bucks with the full upset had bigger may feel not signed a brand new contract because he's not as pissed off if he has the contract. He got

14:24the back. You think he's so petty. He's still going. He's still pissed. He's not the same. Now he's petty. I want maximum. He's Richard Teddy feel. I want him without a contract. I want him disrespected by every NFL team. Why didn't anybody sign me, but he signed the deal. So don't feel as good about him. So I'll say they cover though, but the Bengals pull. So hold up. You don't think that he's not here in some of the chatter about people saying that he's overpaid right now. He's spinning. Now he's over. I mean, come on, dude. Professional athletes have to look at it somewhere. There has to be some kind of old to board. Not have nothing new contract gets a new contract. Now people are mad that I feel money. Baker may feel does that meme of the guy pointing in the mirror. This is entire career. That's valid. Bucks cover. Yeah. Plus three and a half lock. Baker may feel does that meme of the dude pointing in the mirror. You get it there. You make this about you. It's average. It's a gold time. Deep. Who wins this one? What's your prediction? I'll go Bengals. I think I think it's going to be a high scoring affair, but I do think the

15:26improvements that the Bengals have made on defense make Baker's life tough enough and a mecca Buka having a down game to where I think it's the difference. I'm going the exact opposite of you guys on everything here. I'm going Bucks win and the game itself hits the under. Oh, this I know this is projected to be the big shoot out. Since he has lost a few. There's a few. Yeah, yeah, I know, but obviously I can have got New Orleans and Detroit, but like since he's lost three of their last four openers here, their only win was by one point to Cleveland last year. And they hit the under in all four of their last week one opening games as a total. I know this is a better matchup and it looks good on a paper. I just don't know that since he gets the monkey off their back in this one, man, like the Bengals just continue to struggle week one. There's no rhyme or reason to it. I'm just going with the continuous trend of the Bengals don't know how to start off their season. That's fair. All right, let's go to the other one. The other

16:27shoot out or potential shoot out here. New Orleans Saints versus the Detroit Lions. Deep, let's start with you this time. Who's your ex-factor in this game? Tava Shock, dude. He's got to come ball out. He's got to be willing to sit here and grip and rip and he's got to be willing to put up points on the board and play with some of the out of structure playmaking that we saw to close last season. If he's going, if the Saints have any realistic chance of winning this game and I'll just go ahead and spoil this, I think the Lions do in this game, then Shock is going to have to play one hell of a game because the Lions are going to come out. They're going to put up points, man. I fully believe that. So I think Tava Shock walking away with having like he's going to have to play extremely well. If Jordan Tyson was healthy and playing this game, I might actually take the Saints to upset, but I'm not going to go there. Erickson, all the points that you could possibly imagine in Detroit or field, the chorus field of the NFL. I love taking unders, but never in Detroit. You'll never catch me betting a player prop under or a game total under the fact that it's under

17:3015 and a half points is all the reason I need to slam the over. Last 23 home games for the Lions, 16 have gone over the total. 16. Last 34 home games for the Lions have averaged over 55 points total. 71% of those games have gone for at least 51 points. So the trends are strong. This field, especially when you look at the Lions secondary and how it's so eviscerated from injuries from last year where Kirby Joseph, he's not going to play Brian Branche. He's not going to play Rocky. A sin DJ read older cornerbacks are going to be starting for the Detroit Lions. And I think that means Chris Alabe is going to just absolutely feast. And my X factor for this matchup is Juan Johnson, the most underrated fantasy tight end in all the land could have got him with your last pick. And I was always really mad when I didn't get him someone else would always pick him in round 14. I had him because I was great for round 15. I'd be like, man, that's a really good pick. Good on you.

18:32Pick and Juan Johnson. So he was third in receiving arts among all tight ends last season. And he was going like outside the top 20 tight ends for a lot of draft season. So he's going to be the number two guy here, given the injuries to all the safeties. I think that he's going to also see a ton of volume and be a big reason why this game goes over the total. Bro, I was also going to I was about to challenge you and say like that. No, the total is 50. But apparently it was at 50 and 50.5. And it's been bet down to 49.5. I'm like, what are people doing? People are over. Yeah. They're money. Amazing. Erickson, do you took my guy? I was going to Juan Johnson here as well. Lion's secondary decimated with injuries. Man, no Jordan Tyson. It's just someone's got to step up. I know we have the possibility of Devon Valle, Bryce Lance, someone else stepping up. Juan Johnson seems like the easiest number two target team to step up, especially in this game where I mean, I think we're all taking the over here. I'm still going to try it in this one, but I think it's going to be a fun one. Is everyone Detroit across the board? Yep. Detroit W. I will shout out not like a true X factor, but I do think Bryce Lance

19:37could catch a long touchdown in this one. So bet the over and as long as receiving or longest reception this week. He said it. He said it with his chest. It's just that has the matrix of leadership. Yes. What is it? What did he get heard of it once? Is it like Ron Burgundy? Is this from the the Transformers movie with Shilobuff? Is that the one that you're referring to? No. No, this is from the Transformers movie in the 80s. I just doesn't the is it Optus Prime that tells Shilobuff's character to be like put it in my chest? That's the all spark. Yeah, totally different things. Erickson, don't act like you were too cool to watch Transformers. I didn't watch it. I didn't watch it. I was watching because you weren't alive. I have Transformers tattoos on me. So there's no way I can run from this. It just doesn't sound cool. The matrix of leadership. No, it doesn't sound like the car like that. How else would Optus Prime say it? I have the conscious RIP by the way. RIP Peter Cohen by the way. That's right. Let's go to our next game here.

20:40Baltimore versus Indy. Ravens versus Colts here, guys. Erickson, start with you this time. Who is your X Factor for this game? My X Factor is the trenches. Looking at the offensive defensive line matchup for the Ravens offensive line against the Colts defensive line. Now I know Pat Fitzmore is through some cold water on the dynamic duo of Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner. But I know they are a little bit older. So his Derek Henry. He's also not some spring check and he's a little bit older too. But those guys are healthy and they significantly improve the Colts run defense when they are out on the field and they both should be good to go here. So I think that them against a interior offensive line for the Baltimore Ravens has three new starters. No more tire winder bomb. Big eye ONA. Very excited about him, but it's still his first game in the NFL as a rookie. And it's going to be a tough matchup, I think, for this interior blocking unit for the Baltimore Ravens versus this cold defense of front, especially on the road.

21:42Bad offensive lines don't travel. I think it remains to be seen when you look at the Ravens, losing tire linder bomb. What and how well will they protect Lamar Jackson? How much push they'll get up front from a run blocking perspective for Derek Henry to get gone because Derek Henry needs his carries. Like he's a guy that I wish I could go back in time and just bet the under on all of his first half rushing and I bet the over in the second half because he always seems to explode in the second half after he has 10 carries for 20 yards and everyone's complaining like, why do they give them all Derek Henry? The run's not working and they just ripped off an 80 yard touchdown. Like that's exactly how the Derek Henry recipe works. So I'll be interested to see if Declan Doyle will stick with that or if he'll abandon the run. If it's not working as a new alpha to play caller and think I got Lamar Jackson MVP quarterback. Let's let it sling. Was a flowers. So that's what I'm kind of looking for here from an X factor. I like the Ravens to win, but I don't really feel good about them covering lane three and a half points on the road for a rookie head coach. That is a little suspect to me. I actually like the under of all the plays here. It's another really high total. Think around 48 and a half 49 and a half betting against Daniel

22:46Jones in his first game back from the Achilles. The only thing that scares me the most about the under overall is just and this is going to be my player predictions is Jonathan Taylor is going to have a day. Oh, oh my. All right. Well, you took my X factor because I was going to do the same thing called to the line versus Ravens. Oh, line here. So I also love it. I'll switch around because I'm also feeling the same way with the prediction. I'll switch around Declan Doyle being the X factor here. First game as the play caller. You're going to have to give us something special, something unique, something that the opposing defense will not be ready for because everyone knows Derek Henry's getting his touches. Right. Like what else can you do? How well can you move Z flowers around this offense to keep Sasgardner off him? Like how well can you implement this new offense where everyone goes, damn the Ravens might be legit Super Bowl contenders this year. So Declan Doyle is going to be the X factor for me. Deepro, who's your X factor? I'm going Mark Andrews in this one and I'm not high on Mark Andrews from a season long perspective, but versus the cults. The cults were terrible, horrible against tight ends defending. And this isn't really just a

23:50cults thing. This is a Lou and a room O thing. If you look back through years and years and years of NFL seasons, the Bengals were always got awful at covering tight ends. The cults last year, quietly gave up the fourth most yards per target and the 12th most fantasy points per opportunity to the position. I think Mark Andrews has a good day here. I can't, I will not speak on or hype him up for a season long bet or anything like that, but I do think he scores a touchdown. And as far as X factors go, you talked about Zay flowers, you're talking about concerns with Derek Canary, Mark Andrews is going to get some targets in this game. They did add can buy them. That's the only thing that I would push back on them being so horrible against that. I mean, he's going to be the green dot play caller for their defense this year. So I think that he's a pretty big upgrade. Their linebackers are not good. So I think Andrews can probably beat like CJ Allen and a Kim Davis-Gaethers on some routes. But I'm pretty high on the can buy them sign, especially how important he was to the Vikings defense the last couple of years.

24:50ChatGPT can do more than answer questions. It can help you get real work done. ChatGPT work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps. You bring the goal along with the information it needs, like briefs, notes, files, feedback, calendars, data sets, or project plans. Then ChatGPT can help turn all of that into something useful, an analysis, a tracker, a deck outline, a prototype, or a workflow you can keep shaping. It can also use approved apps, connected tools, files, and browser contexts to help move the work forward. And you stay in control. You give direction, review drafts, approve actions, redirect the work, and choose the final output. So you spend less time sorting through busy work, and more time making progress on the work that matters. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting WorkMove, available on plus and pro plans. Think about selling your car. Get a real offer worth real money from CarMax. Then take seven days

26:11to think it over. That's it. No haggling, no hassles, no pressure. Get all the details in a real offer today at carmax.com. Want to drive? CarMax. He could help just for some context, but again, going back to the Enerumo stuff and the just defensive design stuff. 2024 with Enerumo, Bengals gave up the third most receiving arts to tight ends. The previous year, they give the second most. The year prior to that, and I can keep going down this well as far as we want to. They were top 12 and receiving arts to tight ends. 2021, they were, they gave up the fifth most. So it's, I mean, that's a four or five year sample right there. Like, Lue Enerumo's defense is, you got to give production up somewhere is consistently allowing tight ends to have big days. I think the least for like when you look at the Ravens team too, it's who are you willing to let beat you? The guy who's probably not going to gas your team for a ton of yards after the catch. You're going to try to shut down Derek Henry and Z. Flowers as best you can and be like,

27:12okay, we'll give up a couple singles and doubles to Mark Andrews, but we're not giving up the home runs to Derek Henry and Z. Flowers is the Mark Andrews like. It's a catch is for like 15 yards and a touchdown is that the same. I mean, like the Mark Andrews PPR scam could be here. Five for 25 and a touchdown. That's probably still a tight end of one in fantasy, but I'm with you guys on the under. I think this game, like I was actually kind of surprised. This feels like a lot last year's hope and Raven's hope for this total maybe at 48. I'm not feeling that. I'll take the under and I do think the Ravens win this game. Yeah, I think what Ravens want to close when here with the under. Let's go a little quicker to these games. We're running behind. We talked a lot of Transformers today. Bills versus Texans, Debro, kick us off, X Factor for this game. Donkey K. Baby, where are you going to attack the Houston Texans defense? It's a good question. I'm really good linebackers. Really good corners. D line is arguably the best

28:13in the NFL. I think Donkey K. It's going to have to play big this game. He really is. And if I know the Houston Texans at every blanket ship in the off season. So that probably helps here and stuff. But again, we're discussing a Texans defense that really is returning most if not everybody outside of blanket ship like back to this defense. And a week's 12 through 18 last year they give the seventh most receiving fancy points per game and the 11th most points per opportunity to tie it in. So I think can Kade. And again, I really want to see what is his route. She look like. Is he a 60 70% route here at the gate when maybe he's as healthy as possibly the entire season. So I think King Kade's going to have to play up for this one. That's a guy originally had as my X factor for this one. I decided to go the opposite direction though. I went David Montgomery here. The bills have struggled against the run for a minute here. They've not gummeries the new. I mean, I don't want to say new shiny piece for the Houston Texans, but they they repaired the old car and they're going to they're going to give it one last ride here. It's

29:14like fast and furious 11. They're just going to do it one more time. And I think this could actually be a good game for Dave Montgomery, especially. I mean, Texans defense. It got Derek Stainley going up against DJ Moore. Like you said, like the bills are going to need don't can Kade to do something. They're going to need James Cook to do something. There's a chance that this Texans defense looks awesome. And they can run out the clock pretty well and kind of play a little keepaway here against the bills. Also, I'm just going to I'm going to go with the Texans. Is this like fast and furious 11? Is this game set on the moon? Kind of where we're talking about earlier? I mean, like, we're we're they want to get back to basics. They need it to be about racing. Okay. Okay. So on the tough streets of Houston got it. Yes. Actually, I don't know. I don't know how tough the streets of Houston. It seems lovely. It seems like a great city. No idea. But Josh Allen owed four against the Texans on the road in his career. Yeah. That's usually go for him. It's not good. So my name is say, Ericson, Ericson, you look like I'm about to make a trade meme the way you put

30:17the hands like this. Are you you do like a luminati symbols for me? Well, he's debating on whether he wants to say what he wants to say or he doesn't want to say. I was going to go with all of those players. He lists as X factors. So I'm kind of I'm in. No, he's just like it's just like it's just shot. I was just going to list off the obvious where it's the Houston Texas defense against Josh Allen. Josh Allen turns into Superman. Like we know, no, he's capable of doing just taking over games and the bills will win. But if it's more of the same recipe where the Houston Texans defense has dominated Josh Allen, I'm not going to say it because I don't know if that's allowed on these radio waves. Rines with loan to known the Houston Texans. I think they're just going to win this game. I don't see why the addition of DJ Moore is going to dramatically change the odds that the Buffalo bills go on the road in a hostile environment and beat the Houston Texans when this Texans defense has had Josh Allen's number in multiple stops. They lost last year against Davis Mills. They're back up quarterback. They were six point dogs at home in the Texans one. I'm so I think that the

31:24Texans are going to win this game. And I think that's kind of being disrespected again going back to all that these lines care about is the quarterback. If Josh Allen wasn't a quarterback, it would be the Texans as favorites. But because it's Josh Allen because as we get into some of the other matchups because it's my homes like those guys just get more points. And I think that's being disrespectful to how elite honestly, the best way to describe the Houston Texans defense in my opinion is suffocating. It just makes offenses not be able to move. So give me the Texans. Yeah, I mean, when you lose to Captain Turtle neck, it's not a good thing. Who's Captain Turtle neck? Davis Mills. Davis Mills. I can't even I have to sit by that for. I have not. No. I mean, I know he's got a long neck of a like I wasn't walking around calling him Captain Turtle neck. You've not seen. No, you have never seen like the graphics and stuff of Davis Mills and his neck. I mean, it's my I've seen it. I've seen it. I've just never called him Captain Turtle neck. You had me you had me here guessing first.

32:24I guess I guess a real expect would actually be CJ Stroud not just playing like total garbage. Now that he had a minute to look up some stuff. I would add CJ Stroud. I think that the I mean, the bill's defense is just much worse than the just say, Kanye, fair bearer, and you coward. Honestly, it's not a bad call. It's probably going to be kicker one. I got to adjust my kicker ring. This is all to say the Texans do win. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Upside. All right. Last game on here. Green Bay Packers versus the Minnesota Vikings. This one, I actually think it may not be the sexiest one of the week, but I think it's the most interesting because these are two teams that kind of need to figure out what their identity is. Green Bay with running the football now without Josh Jacobs and the Vikings throwing the football with Kyler Murray technically under center, but in shotgun. So let's talk about our expectors here. Eric's and kick us off for this one. It's got to be Martian Lloyd. We're going to finally get to see this guy play in a real NFL game. And he may more than double his career NFL snaps, which is 10. Two seasons into his NFL career.

33:30So we get 20 snaps out of Martian Lloyd. That is a big W for the Martian Lloyd stance. And dude, if he gets 20 snaps, the streets are going to ride. Why would you not get to? Okay. I'm saying at least we're riding on. I just say we ride a dog. Okay. But because if he just gets just 20 snaps, like this is a mean the packers are known for being a very efficient offense. So maybe they only have 25. Lloyd's bands. We ride it on it. Yeah. It's going to have all the opportunity to showcase his expulsiveness, drawing Minnesota Vikings as never a easy matchup. But I think that their personnel overall is weaker than it's been in years past. But Brian floor is always knows how to throw a curveball and making stuff on opposing offenses. And obviously these teams are familiar with each other playing in the NFC North twice a year. I do like the Vikings to win though. I think that they're playing at home. And when you look at the packers, they did not win a single game last year after Micah Parsons went down. And I think that matters so significantly because when you invest so much

34:32into one player and he misses time, especially a player with an impact like a Micah Parsons, again, it was twofold last year. How good was Green Bay with Micah Parsons? How bad was Dallas without Micah Parsons? Like that matters so significantly. So even though they've made some additions and moves this off season, knowing that they would be without Parsons. I got to see it first before I'm going to be betting on the packers in any way, shape or form to win games without Parsons in line up. All right, Deepro, X Factor. I'll leave this off with I think the packers win and I think the X Factor is Kyla Murray. And I think he's going to struggle here. And I understand the reasons why with Micah Parsons, but the counterpoint to that is I don't want to rush Kyla Murray. I want the to play contain like I want to force Kyla Murray to win from the pocket, which he can't do. And if you're going to, I could also have thrown the X Factor here to be Jonathan Ganon. If there is any coach in the entire freaking NFL that has an innate knowledge of what Kyla

35:33Murray does well and what he sucks at, it's Jonathan Ganon. And if you look at Kyla Murray, one Jonathan Ganon over the last three years has had the third highest two high rate in the NFL, almost 58% of his snaps. Kyla Murray over the last two years amongst 31 qualifying passers against two high 14th lowest yards per attempt, 12 lowest EPA per dropback and 13th lowest highly accurate throw rate. Kyla cannot access the middle of the field. Would you face too high? It's funneling everything down underneath. He cannot see the middle of the field. If they're going to contain him and not try to get him on as far as Blitzam and Rusham and stuff like that, they're going to force him to win from the freaking pocket. Kyla Murray cannot do that. I think the packers win. When I charted him and wrote up the profile for Kyla Murray for reception perception, I was just grossed out. It's not good. It's not good. I don't see the fit there in Minnesota. That's why he was my factor as well. I think that's what everyone wants to see. Can he be a starting quarterback? I think a lot of, we get these rose colored fantasy football glasses with

36:38Kyla Murray. He runs. And then we'll not ask, but I'm saying the industry as a whole, he runs. He can be good for fantasy and he can help this person and that person. And that kind of distorts our view as to whether or not he's actually a good quarterback. And this system, too, where he's going to be asked to go under center a lot more. He's going to be asked to hit throws outside the numbers that he doesn't normally hit and hit in breakers and stuff that he doesn't typically do well. Kyla has actually become a check down king over the last few years. Like Jordan Mason might be looking at a career high and catches this year on this Vikings offense. So I'm deep. I'm with you, Kyla is my X factor in this one. And I think in a bad way, I think the Packers sneak this one out this week. I don't want to put us too long on this one, but real fast, just zooming out 100 foot view. I do think the Vikings offense is going to be massively different. I think it's not going to be what we've seen in previous KOC offenses. They have been shrouded. They don't want anybody like videoing or letting any kind of news out. I think we're going to see a run heavy offense. And this is going to

37:39look very akin to the final years of Russell Wilson's career. I think it's going to be very run heavy. I think it's going to be boot action. I think it's going to be play action drops and deep heaves down the field. So I think the passing volume is going to drop from Minnesota this year. Alfredo, do you disagree, Erickson? I mean, I can see that happening. Yeah, one. It's a function of Kyler can't run KOC's offense. The way it's been designed. I can't also suggest if they're running them all effectively, then you can do more play action, get them out in space where he doesn't have to worry about like, oh, I got to see all the offensive linemen and he's on the move. I think to your points, like don't stick him back there, make him be a pocket pat, like get him out in space. And maybe that's where you're going to see a better version of Kyle Murray where he can use his athleticism a little bit more. He can run if he wants to. If some, yeah, I agree with that. All right, we're going to give you guys some player specific predictions. But before we do that, you all watching and listening have a chance to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams jersey. All you've got to do if you want to win this,

38:44okay? Subscribe to the tailgate YouTube channel right now. If you're already watching, it's easy. Just click subscribe. If you're listening head on over to the YouTube, you can do it on your phone. It's really fast. Just go over there, subscribe, and then drop a comment below on any video. If you want to do it on this one, super easy. And that's it. And then you just hit the notification bell to make sure you know what all of the next episodes are coming out. We're going to be announcing the winner right here on the channel. So make sure that you are checking agent every one of those episodes to see if you win the Todd Gurley signed Rams. Give away. Boys, let's do this. Let's take a look at some player predictions here. Initially, we were going to team in players, but we're kind of running behind. So let's just do like specific players and what kind of prediction we might see, because we did a lot of team talk here. Do you bro kick us off with a player that you think might surprise everyone or some sort of a bolt prediction the every week one. I think of mecha, because it's going to massively struggle this week. And I think everybody that there's going to be an overreaction by the masses and saying, okay, now he's cooked or he's going to have a bad season, a lot of the toe and all those kind of the kind of stuff. I think it simply

39:46comes down to DJ Turner is going to take him out of this game. Man, DJ Turner is proving himself to be one of the best shadow corners in the NFL. And mecha ran 63.5% of his routes from the perimeter. I think that number goes up this year. DJ Turner was freaking awesome last year. All of these wide receivers from last season, he followed and at least 60% of their routes. DK Mechak, Justin Jefferson, he followed DK twice, Justin Jefferson, Romeo Dobbs, Safe Flowers twice, and yes, Gabriel Davis is throwing in there just for S&Gs. All of those wide receivers in that sample, he allowed one receiving touchdown and only Justin Jefferson, whenever 70 receiving arts in his coverage, even if you zoom out, Cincinnati went more single high last year, 57% of their snaps. When Mecha was at the height of his powers, weeks one through five last year, 1.36 yards per route run against single high. So whether you want to talk about coverage, DJ Turner, all of it together, Mecha Bukas, not going to have a good game in week one. I like that one. Well, I mean, I don't like it because I've got him on a lot of my famous teams. So I kind of hate you. And if he has a bad set, I'm on the

40:48bench, I'm going to be back in cursing your bench. And Secos, man, I got the foot bad matchup. Bench. I'm allowed to do that. I'm allowed to do it. Erickson, player prediction for this week. Jonathan Taylor is going to go nuclear against the Baltimore Ravens, 150 plus yards and two touchdowns last year when the Colts faced Jesse Menor's defense when he was defense accordion of the Chargers. They gave up a season high 38 points. It was the most points allowed by the Chargers all season long and came against this Colts offense led by Daniel Jones, the Shane Stuykin. Given all the question marks about Daniel Jones coming off of his killings, I know the reports have been pretty positive about him, but we'll see at full speed and live game action. How is a killer actually is doing anywhere his mobility is at. And then with the wide receivers who seem like, out of peers, is he going to be 100% how effective he's going to be? I know Josh Gadsman in outline up with some injury stuff, Keenan Allen, older wide receiver. So I think the Colts keep the simple. It's like, let's just feed Jonathan Taylor, 30 touches and just steamroll this Baltimore

41:52Ravens into your defensive line that they're hoping they get Madiboukay back. He's still not even a lot to play in this game coming off season ending neck surgery last year. So I think that this is something where Stuykin makes the game plan really simple and that matchup against Jesse Meters defense last year. Jonathan Taylor had 16 carries 94 yards and not one not two, but three touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers. So I think that he is in for a big game. It's why the under does scare me a little bit, but if it is Jonathan Taylor ball control, maybe that speeds up the clock keeps the bar jacks and off the field. And that's how this game disappoints in the total score. But I think that Jonathan Taylor is going to have a monster game. That's the only thing that scares me there is that he is so game script dependent that if they get behind, we may not see as many carries for him. Because if the Ravens offense comes out shooting from the hip like early on, we'll see. We'll see, man, I like the insight you give us to

42:54Taylor versus Jesse Meters defense is in the past. So I guess we some hope there. Everyone is listening watching. If you've been enjoying this show, please make sure you subscribe to the channel here on YouTube or Apple or Spotify or wherever you're enjoying us. Okay, because the tailgate channel is going to be bringing you episodes all the time. It's not just our faces and voices that are on here, but a whole crew of great analysts that are going to bring you all of the NFL action. If you're also listening to an Apple or Spotify, please take a second to leave a review. And if you're just like, where do I find you on YouTube? It's really simple search at tailgate NFL and you'll be able to find us there. Jen, so let's close this one out here with one thing to watch. For week one in the NFL, Erickson, you're the only one that didn't put something on the show sheet here yet. So go for it. You get to go first. I want to see this. What are you talking about? You don't have anything. I have an old copy. Yes, I do. Oh, well, that's because I make a copy. So I can Oh, interest. Oh, it's just, hey, Alfredo is technically the only person listening in the scene.

43:54That's a long. I'm about what's on the show. No, no, no, sir, sir, I made this copy an hour before the show. What were you doing? I was putting my one thing to watch together. That's exactly what I was doing. I want to watch the, I mean, I want to watch the Patriots, but they're already played. So I can't watch them. Okay. So let's go to deeper. All right, you're watching the old Jack little jaguars offense against the Cleveland Browns because I think that this is going to be a total blowout. I don't think this is even going to be close. I would be happy to lay 14 points with the Jackson of Jaguars at home because when you look at how well they played at home last year, they have the highest average margin of victory by two touchdowns last season. You're facing DeShon Watson behind a banged up offensive line against a top tier run defense. The Browns are going to be super one dimensional. It's going to be Sean Watson dropping back 40, 45 times and just praying that he can complete a ball down the field to one of his wide receivers. So I think that Jaguar's defense is

44:56going to feast on DeShon Watson and the Sprouts offense, Quinch on Juddkins. It can be a total zero in the run game. And we saw last year, Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence not afraid to run up the score on bad teams. They threw all over the jets. They killed the Titans twice because they overmatched those two teams. And we'll get a chance to kind of see how the hierarchy of the receivers and tight ends is in this offense. And then with the backfield as well, who is seeing the majority of touches? Who's seeing the red zone usage between Bayes, I'll do it in Chris Rodriguez. I think it's going to be interesting because they're going to be able to do whatever they want. And it will be interesting to see what Liam Cohen actually decides in the first half of the game. Okay, who are we going to feature the most on this offense? So I think Trevor Lawrence is going to ball out. I think he's going to combine four touchdowns and they're just going to smoke the brown. So I'm looking forward to watching this Jaguar's offense. I'm very invested in them. Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence for MVP. So if he starts out on fire, I think I'll be feeling really good after watching them on Sunday. Can I give you a crystal ball prediction of which one of these guys just actually balls off of you? No, that's no, it's all Parker watching him. Baby, he's going to go

46:03nuke. Call him. He's gonna go off. Why do you think James Gladstone is trying to get this contract done for? Because the price is the brick after we caught his car. It's going up. It's going up. It's boy. It's got to get paid. Debro, let's hear what's your one thing to watch and we go on. The commander's offense and more specific, they're offensive line. I'm so concerned about this going against the Eagles. Like, is this offensive line going to be like, can this team mitigate all of the injuries and the worries about this offensive line? Can't it or is it going to capsize this team from the jump? And if it's going to be a problem, then that early season schedule for the commanders is going to rear its head. It's going to be ugly after the Eagles. They get the cowboys, improved defensive line. They get the sea hawks. They get the cults. They get the giants. Oh, my lord. Then they get the 49ers. Maybe a small reprieve. And then the Eagles again, then the Rams and the Giants again, then the Bengals reap. I mean, it's bad boys at the offensive line.

47:04It cannot hold up. Jane Daniels. Good luck, sir. I just love that's the the commander's offensive line turns you into a southern bell. It starts fanning yourself. Daniels. Oh, hot and bothered. Easy, easy. Family show. See, why don't we get to the person who didn't? That's it. Bye, everyone. Enjoy. We won. Is that what we're doing? That that that how you thought it would. Yeah. I want you to just stop. Right. That's okay. No. My one thing to watch for a week one is going to be the Bears offense. There has been so much talk from Ben Johnson about how he wants to break records. Caleb Williams is now no longer goofy. He's taking things more serious. And we've seen mustache Caleb. We've seen Caleb not painting his fingernails. We've seen Caleb at Cubs games where he's fully embracing Chicago. He's also the

48:04madman cover athlete. And I know there's just everything has been surrounding Chicago. And now as we're approaching the season, Roma Dunezays having complications, health issues. Is he going to be ready to go? Is he not? If he does go, how good and how productive is he going to be in week one? And then you've got two players that everyone is expecting or hoping for a big breakout with Colston Lovelin at Luther Burton. I am so curious to see what this offense looks like in week one. I can't wait. I can't wait to watch this team and see how good it ends up being. But guys, I know after week one, there's going to be a ton of overreaction, especially in like the fantasy football area. I tweeted this out a couple days ago. It's like you go back and look at all the players who were at the top of fantasy production in week one and then like towards the bottom. And a bunch of them were guys that either they were at the top and ended up being terrible later on throughout the year or they were near the bottom and ended up being great. So like,

49:05can we please just not overreact the week one? I think it's the Travis Fulcum tweeted. I think the way that you're describing enough, Fredo, is to just zig while others ag. So whoever gets buried after week one, you buy. And whoever we go way too far out on one side of the ledge on, you sell. That's the moment. You want to hear it? I tweeted this out yesterday. Please last year after week one, Drake May was the quarterback 18 in fantasy. Jameer Gibbs was running back to 36. George Pickens was wide receiver 65. And Tramick Bride was the tight end 17. Anyone who was able to like make some sort of move after a week one, the guys just don't panic. Don't panic. I know what talk is on. Well, who are the good guys that we should have sold though? Do you have that? You have that list? Don't. All right. For next. For next. I was too busy. I was too busy. I was too busy writing bears offense on my side of the show sheet. Yeah. Yeah. That took him a long time. So all right guys. Before we head out here, please, if you have not already, make sure you check out

50:09the betting pros podcast for the best NFL bets during each of those weeks here in the season for, I mean, for all the top bets. Guys, do you think you guys put your NFL bets there? Well, the betting pros podcast. Yeah. And every deeper one head ahead of certain rookie running back prop in the Patriots, C-Ox game. And only one of us was right. We'll say sick. We'll say. I mean, that's kind of how it goes right. One of you's typically going to be right if you use it. Sometimes you can get a push or the guy gets injured or scratched or that. Yeah. I'll get so much more out of this by being taking your accent down. All right. I think that's going to do it for us here. As always, I want to thank everybody for watching to listen all the way through to the tailgate for myself for D-Bow for Ericsson. We'll see you next time. Adios.

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52:13Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the boost unlimited plan. Wait, I came in for two things. How is this $47? All right, we're going to need a plan here. Just start simple. With Bank of America Advantage Safe Balance Banking, no overdraft item fees, no monthly maintenance fee if you're under $25. Plus, as a new checking customer, you can earn $100 when you open an account and make qualifying Zeller debit transactions. Oh, that's actually really simple. Safe Balance Banking, one less thing to figure out. Learn more at bfay.com slash earn 100, Terms in Condition to Applied Bank of America and Name Member FDIC. This is an I Heart Podcast.