OpenAI Cracks Navier-Stokes, Tech Trailers, AI Jobs Apocalypse on Hold | Diet TBPN

0:00Does math matter? That's a big question. I was debating this entirely today. Lots of tension on the timeline over Navier Stokes, the Millennium Prize math problem. There has been a Millennium Prize math problem that was solved before the point care conjecture in the pre-AI era. These are very, very difficult math problems that all PhD mathematicians, all sorts of elite, the upper echelon of math has been grappling with for years, and AI is starting to knock these down. Remember, last year was the year of the IMO Gold Metals from both Google Deep Mind and Open AI. We talked to Scott Wu about this, who's coming on the show later today, huge race for cognition. Scott made the prediction on TBPN early in 2025 that he believed that artificial intelligence would be able to achieve gold at the IMO, the International Math Olympiad in 2025, and he was right. He nailed it. Progress continued, but debate remained

1:08around cool calculator. Basically, is the critique. I mean, people just don't feel empowered by a system that's really good at math. People already, a TI-83 can do more complex math than most people can do. There's another level of math that you don't know about and you don't care about, and computers are good at it. A lot of people, their eyes glaze over. The bigger question here for me is all about the public perception. What actually matters here? I think they're cool benchmarks. I think they're interesting stories. Obviously, there's a lot of drama over this race. It feels like it was neck and neck. Now, there's a bunch of debates going back and forth with a mathematician who works at Google and a mathematician who's independent, who worked alongside an anthropic researcher, who were both working on it, and they were apparently texting back and forth and going back and forth on, did they steal the data? Did they copy each other? Did they have different approaches?

2:08So lots of different back and forth. I think someone summed it up well by saying that these math models have discovered the hardest problem of advanced mathematics, which is authorship and contribution, who actually did the work, who gets lead left on the paper. But yeah, there was a drama last year, 2025, during the IMO. Open AI in Google D mind, and I believe harmonic the math AI lab that we had on the show last week. We're all working on solving the international math limpy. Remember, there's six questions. Question six, no AI model could solve. It was more complex. But both teams got a 35 out of 42. There was a bunch of back and forth because Open AI validated with former IMO gold medalists, while Google's result was graded by the official rubric that year, which is internal to the organization. We called it at the time. It's like they ran the fastest 100 meter sprint in the parking lot. Well, the actual Olympics is going out on the stadium. And so a lot of these are

3:09just, you know, by wars, races, who does what? Does it even matter? The interesting thing about Navier Stokes is does it matter? Tyler, you think it does? I'll debate you on this a little bit. It seems like it doesn't because the equations themselves are known. They're just not fully proven engineers and physicists already solve them numerically all the time for a particular situation. So air flow around a wing, you might have to use some of these equations, weather models, water through a pipe. These are critical things. They are boring. But you can imagine that there would be cause for optimism, you know, better weather models save lives during hurricane season, increased air flow across an airplane wing that could lead to more efficiency, longer ranges, cheaper flights, lower carbon emissions. There's a bunch of reasons why you could solve all that and be excited. But that's not actually what happened. One of the reasons I'm excited, I believe we agreed last week that if anyone

4:11solves Navier Stokes, Tyler would shave his head. Oh, it's right. Didn't we do that? We said something. That was about the years. Oh, that was a disaster. But the details are coming up. But yeah, this is a big moment. Yeah, I think it was actually more, it was if any, if any AI progress happens at all, Tyler, shave this head. Yeah. Yeah. But do you have a steel man for why this matters? So I think I agree that like, I don't think that the breakthrough, you know, this new stuff that's going on is like practically super useful. I don't like you're going to feel it when you're on an airplane. You're not going to feel like less turbulence now because of this. But I think these are like the most important open math problems. I think like these are more close to like, you know, a beautiful painting or something, then like some like protocol engineering. Yeah. Like this is like pure math. This is like the, you know, this is the peak of the mountain of like, same month math, same month that AI solved this incredibly difficult math problem. I saw someone used to add to put you to book a haircut. So the equivalent, no, I mean, in terms of the

5:13actual economy, the actual impact of these things, like practically using these tools for something that people enjoy that's not just spinning their wheels, it's not just optimizing endless things that's actually generative and moving things forward, not just defending against cyber attacks, doing something. When some says, if you get some millennium prize, you all have to get bowl cuts. Oh, bowl cuts. Boats are interesting. That's really, really jiky. So you do get a million bucks. So, you know, there's that. That's not nothing. But in the AGI race where trillions are being deployed, it is very minimal. It sounds like cause for optimism that Navier Stokes would improve air flow over a wing, something like that. But that's not really how it will work. Proving this, this, these equations is unlikely to actually have any measurable impact. And that's sort of agreed upon and physicists have sort of chimed in with this take that this doesn't, this won't actually move the discipline of engineering forward at all. But it is a cool demo. So clearly,

6:18it matters for hype and vibes, solving how math problems is good, heuristic to show how quickly models are progressing. But to me, it just comes down to humans are able to use machines that humans built to further humanity's general knowledge. Yeah, yeah, it's good. But I feel like benchmarks. And if you're just trying to measure AI progress, benchmarks and raw inputs and raw metrics of the model, sort of do the same thing. Like the number of people who will be convinced that AI is progressing exponentially because they see this result. And then you look at the number of people that are that would be equally convinced of AI progress just by hearing, oh, there's, you know, 10 gigawatts coming online or the new model has 10 trillion parameters or it was trained with a billion dollars of computer, something like that. And I think it is that average person is probably more impressed by Sora. Yes, totally, totally. It's way more visceral to actually see something. And that's why the weekend was very much blender and people showing 3D renders and remodeling their houses and building

7:22small games and web games. And that feels much more like a, okay, breakthrough. People are having fun. They're vibe coding stuff. But they're also doing 3D modeling, which is like a new skill we've had image generation, video generation. But there's something much more, I don't know, like grounded in watching a, from just a few images, watching a blender model come to life. You can walk around inside of it and it can be something that you know the model doesn't exist. I saw a few demos that were like a train and it was like, oh, wow, model, this amazing train. But there are perfectly modeled trains out there that you can just go grab from the internet. That's not that impressive when you actually see your, your specific house or your car or something that doesn't already exist out there, perfectly modeled really well. Sorry to interrupt. John Anderson says, why are we only seeing the calendar days for road to Christmas? Can we please get a week days and work days break down for diards? Yeah, we need it. We need a full, full screen graphic. So let's

8:23work on that. Thank you. Thank you, John. Yeah, so in terms of field, the AGI computer use, definitely one of these, Astra, particularly faster at computer use for like really, really mundane things. Also just interesting to just have a very different interface to your computer, like configurations, all the things we use, you have to dig through a bunch of settings, maybe set something on the command line, maybe find a control panel, you can just ask codecs or any AI agent to go and do it and it'll just do it and come back to you. One of the use cases that I'm excited about is getting, you know, when you get a parking ticket and then you're like, I got this parking ticket, I want to deal with it. And it's like, well, the ticket is not in the portal yet. Sure. Being able to go into the chat, say, hey, once this ticket is live in the system, please pay it. Parking. And so you can just forget about it. Parking ticket super intelligence. It feels like we're close. So yeah, I think that the Millennium

9:24Prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week. It feels like all of the different labs are like, put a million dollars of inference on this, put a million dollars of inference on this. There is going to be a back and forth and the labs are going to very quickly solve basically all of these problems. And then there'll be a search for new problems, but the conversation will move back to Curing Cancer, almost certainly, because that's the one that's so grounded. That's the one that's, you know, supposed to be tractable. It's been messaged from various labs for so long that people will want that, but there will be a longer flywheel from actually designing a cure for a specific cancer, running tests, seeing that it was effective. You can't do it with a million dollars of inference over a weekend, I think. But that's my prediction is like the conversation will go back to biotech after we basically solve math, which is a crazy thing to say, but it feels like we're there. What do you think? Yeah, all the conversation. Yeah, people say it loudly.

10:28Well, stop. Yeah, yeah. So one, the pharmaceutical industry has been carrying big, big, foreign forms of cancer or making progress against various forms of cancer for a very long time. Yeah, it's your first reputation of any category of businesses on the planet. Yeah. And so I don't think that that's like this, like, you know, I don't think that's a solution to sentiment around the technology industry. Yeah, I know. And I think we can have someone in setting up this idea, like imagine how underwhelming it will be if any AI lab comes out and makes like 20% progress towards one specific type of cancer, right? That's not going to come across as like, oh, wow, cured cancer. It's like, okay, they sort of advanced understanding and maybe the treatment process. And this type of thing is happening all the time. Anybody who's had a family member that's suffered from cancer has heard

11:31about, hey, there's this thing in trials that's showing promising results, trying to get you into it or whatever. So that's happening all the time, right? And it's not going to suddenly change how people feel about the technology industry broadly. No, it'll diffuse slowly and people will be back in like the, what have you done for me lately? I don't know. It's going to be, it's going to be back and forth forever. But anyway, in the meantime, somebody gave Astra a paintbrush, a robot, and a camera and asked it to paint the Golden Gate Bridge in real life. It figured out how to control the robot and progressively got better throughout its attempts. The time lapse is sick. Here's a one minute time lapse of code. I don't know how to pronounce this, but his account painting the Golden Gate Bridge. How would you rate this, Jordy? It appears better than I could do. Better than you could do. How long are you giving yourself? I'm saying at least by the, by the, the later attempts. Okay, the later attempts because it gets better. Yeah. The first one was not quite,

12:33not quite there in my opinion. Still pretty impressive. Yeah, somebody was talking about potential for a 3D printer boom with all the 3D modeling, the idea that you could, you can design. I saw someone else designed a system where you can, from a prompt, go from prompt to Lego kit basically in one go. So it takes your prompt, whatever you gave it. Like look at this, John. That looks pretty solid. That's pretty solid. I think you could do better with enough time. I don't know how long that took, but it is impressive. It's a fun, fun demo. And again, it like lives in the real world. It's not abstract at all. So you can just watch it work, watch it do the thing. One of the best reactions to Astro's release last week was Josh, who's over at a century. His company was acquired by Century. He said after Astro's release yesterday scoring 99% on Arc AGI 3, I think it's become clear that AGI is no longer some distant hypothetical. About 15 minutes after the benchmarks came out,

13:34I booked the first flight I could find to Jackson Hole. And he goes on to say, he's also looking into purchasing a horse. At this point, horses remain one of the only major transportation platforms with no API, no OTA updates, and no realistic path to MCP support. So glad to see more people getting into the horse game. Another good demo from some where Z Astro, he says Astro and I are working on making my contact form as difficult as possible. So you actually have to fight a dark battle in order to contact them. That's amazing. This looks like a, I might try and contact some where Z Astro is. This is pretty fun. Yeah, the the the defeat of all of the cap shows is somewhat linked to the instinct news. Did you see that this weekend, Jordy? Oh yeah, the Rezzy bands. Yeah, so instinct is a personal assistant AI focused on consumer. You link it with

14:35your email, your text messages, and we've seen a lot of investors sharing posts about how they're producing for what a twerth, I would be surprised if anyone in the audience hasn't already heard of instinct. Yeah, and we talked about it before. Thank you for reintroducing. But I think it's worth explaining how it works because it does seem like it triggered some bands. There was one report of an individual who got banned from Rezzy because they were absolutely spamming to get reservations to restaurants. And there was another example of somebody who was at the US Open was on the fan cam and then on it was footage. And as the user experience would have been absolutely incredible, right? You're sitting there and you're like, Hey, I appeared on the screen for a moment. Can you can you go and find that? I've had that idea so many times. Like, Oh, go find someone on the on the fan cam. But I think what instinct was doing in the background was being absolutely relentless. And it seems like it was reaching out to hundreds of people aggressively, you know, following up. Like emailing the media

15:40contact, but they did wind up getting the video. Yeah, it works. And it was mutually beneficial. And you could imagine if the other side has agent intermediation and filtering and can process things that are spam like, but there's actually a reasonable action to take that could make it through a filter and not actually annoy anyone on the other side. So that was a very that was probably a glimpse into the future and like a cost for optimism. I could see I could see that being popular. But people are doing all sorts of stuff. The classic example is like, go save money, get refunds, do that to sort of stuff. But people are having fun with that. So many demos. This 3D website that pulls apart the mail and add to me into 200, 2,234 modeled pieces. I share this with a friend who was trying to like explain in one video what to get like their wheels turning. I think this is a good example. I wonder how much of this was like individually modeled versus pulled from an existing model and then just animated, but certainly works well. It's trailer time. Okay, it's trailer time. We got two

16:42trailers that did the timeline. Let's start with Nathan Fielder and his new film featuring none other than Elizabeth Holmes. I stopped. I filmed before she went to prison. I can promise you that. I don't have any hair to see if you want. Of course, I'm not deceiving you. I'm engaging with you as a human being. Why would I deceive you? There's no reason for me to do that. Okay. Yeah, I think it's okay. Okay, good shot. How long is this being real right now? It's always being real. Yeah.

17:51That was a team of stout. Looks beautiful. Saw a post. Somebody saying it feels like I'm living in a simulation because this media product is like perfectly with it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You would think that you would you would think that a movie like this wouldn't get made by, I don't know, a 24 specifically because it feels like the Tam is just like 20,000 people. But in the... The Theranos store was really big. She was in the cover of Time Magazine, I believe, in cover of major magazines. It was all over the news when it happened. No, it's a lot bigger than you would. The John Kerry Rue book is just a fascinating read. It's a real page turner. And so I think a lot of people read the book. The adaptation of the actual play by play story, not the documentary, but the what do they call biopic, I guess. That I think did not break through in the same way. But it certainly like continued to elevate her persona. And then the posting has been like kept her relevant. Like there's... Yeah, there was some speculation that maybe it was Nathan

18:53that got access to the account. Completely disagree with it. Yeah. I do not think that's it. All I think that would violate some tenet of what it means to do with documentary. I mean, Nathan blurs lines all the time in terms of how he interacts with his subjects. So it's certainly possible, but I just don't think that's reasonable at all. I think they're her... How much do we know outside of the trailer? Like we don't know... Well, this was leaked something like a year ago from a journalist who got the story and it was widely denied that it was happening and he was very upset that he wasn't getting enough credit for being correct here. He ultimately was, but yeah, all we know is that they filmed the documentary in the lead up to her actually going to prison after sentencing. There was a pretty large gap before when she had to report to the prison. She gets out in 2030. So coming up three years, four years away. And so I believe even in a week, you can get a

19:55lot of footage if you're spending the full, you know, every day with someone. And then there were a number of visits to the facility by Nathan that were recorded, probably talking through glass or talking at a table, something like that. So we don't know what I'm thinking. What? SBF Nathan Fielder. Sequel to this one. Yeah. This just becomes like a... The problem is that he's already in jail. So the question is just what else does Nathan for Nathan Fielder have in the can? Who knows? There's a rumor that he's secretly running a boy band right now. There's this rumor that that there's a boy band that's popular on tick... This is real. That's popular in Tiktok. That's entirely invented by him. Boy, boy, boy, boy, are you familiar with this? Really? I thought you were going to say he's Nathan Fielder's SD kid. Stay with us in the trailer zone. Trailer dropped just this morning.

21:01What is the image of the future that you see? Wait, pause. Was that a valkyrie? Yeah. Okay. Continue. So the visuals are already incredible. They really are. I'm pretty sure it's a valkyrie. It might be a little hollow. We've created a machine that will solve the world's problems. We don't do check. Gate check. Gate check. Did you nail them? Gate check? Oh, the gate. So she opened Pandora's box together. The future's inevitable. Countries will fall. The voices are still at Wartow's savering, but the styling and the craze thing is I have that exact backpacks. It can get to be the one. I think I got it recommended by MkBHD. To shepherd people in to this new world.

22:08Lots of camios. Not camios, but I'm so excited to see it. Traumatic. Traumatic. What are you interested in? I'm interested in seeing the takeaway. People in the chat are back and forth. Is it too soon? Is it unnecessary? Is it going to be something that like the social network is divisive, but also like it's oddly inspiring to a certain cohort of entrepreneurs? We'll see. We'll see what the reactions are. Yeah. Do you think that was? Do you think Hollywood took away any lesson from the social network in that they were trying to frame Mark Zuckerberg as generally troubled person and then a lot of people came away feeling like, wow, I want to be like, yeah, sort of an unintended consequence of it. I don't know. I mean, they're going

23:09back for a second scoop of the ice cream with the social network, the social reckoning. Is there a trailer out or just images? I think we saw that too. It'll be interesting to see what happens there. But get your tuxes ready. Going back to back, artificial social reckoning and then capping it off with everything. You see everything. Yes. And then also the the to catch predator movie. That's going to be a good one. Yeah, outside of tech. Yeah, I guess. Yeah, but still it's a triple feature. Yeah, it just feels like it's a it's a year of like niche movies that I expect to be breakouts, I guess, like, along with like back rooms and obsession and then these two movies and then the documentaries. There's a lot of things that are like oddly specific, but I would expect they do well, but I don't know. We'll see. And while we're at it, let's stay in the trailer zone and let's pull up the social reckoning, the official teaser. But I am here to help Facebook,

24:12not hurt it. Okay. You said me a message. What would you like to talk about it? But I'm in Gavill's a session to order. You'll read your opening statement, which will skip pass for now. That's a separate session. And which one is about? I don't I don't think this is based on the politics. Not Cambridge in a way. It's the Francis Hogan and your occupation. Teenage girl with a blower thing, which honestly looks a lot different in the backdrop of the addiction trials. I wonder if they were trying to get this out before the trials. I don't understand what you're saying. Are you a tap reporter? Ish. Ish? These guys are counting on the next round of congressional testimony to make you like a bullmark. I'm happy to lend a hand, but I think you doomed. This company and that guy are playing unprecedented role in our lives.

25:13Be firehose of bad information. You are injecting it to the air supply is becoming jet power. I'm a free speech absolutist. I'm not the one who's lying and I'm not stopping them from seeing someone who is. Anxiety, depression, a teenage girl's got worse as a result of time spent on the platform. Senior leadership knows and is doing nothing. I know they're easier enemies to make. The mafia would be an easier enemy to make. So what would you need? To stand up the story, the internal documents. This is a material violation of my NDA. Which was as big as the biggest country on earth. We're not fighting the Congress. We're post government around here. Please, who is that supposed to please? Let me poke that. We have 102 hours to get everything. She's going to get sued. It's a small piece. I don't want to be made an example of a guy with unlimited resources. I promise you. Yeah, so Chad is calling it out, but I don't think that I think this one, I think this one's going to flop for sure. Because the lack of superstars. Well, lack of supercars. And this is just not top. This story is no longer top of mind.

26:17Sure. Yeah, people want to hear about like the talent wars. They don't want to hear about like this kind of stuff. They do. The talent wars. If there's no Alex Wang character, I'm not paying good money. Sashane says, oh, technology is so scary. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, they should do more tech movies. Maybe maybe Sess pop up. S.E says it will flop because no Brazilian jujitsu. Yeah, this was in the pre. That's true. Jetsu. If there's the social network three and all the scenes where Zach is talking, how is it 2026 and we don't have a sales force movie? Seriously. Like the comeback, the sass pocket or at least a documentary on the relationship that he has with the dolphins. How would we find that would be crazy? And the wildlife generally. Here's a concept dolphin force. How one man tamed wild dolphin. It's maybe the best origin story of a

27:19tech company ever. Benioff famously conceived a vision for sales force in 1999 while swimming with a pod of roughly 100 dolphins off the coast of Hawaii during a sabbatical. Feeling one with the pod, he envisioned cloud delivered enterprise software leading him to quit Oracle and secure two million and seed funding from his mentor Larry Allison. Yeah. Incredible. Anyway, in other news, lots of craziness in the AI world, lots of new models. But the jobs apocalypse has been officially postponed by the economist. An AI jobs boom is here and people have a wide range of takes on this is it just postponed? Is it permanently postponed? Kevin Bryan summed it up. Well, he said, I am shocked. Shocked. So he's being sarcastic, of course. Shocked to find out that a productivity enhancing investment supporting technology is good for workers. Knowing nothing else, this should be your prior because this is how productivity and competitive markets almost always works.

28:23A new technology comes out. It supports investment. It enhances productivity. Everyone hires to go after all the all the different battles. But the economist breaks it down in a lot more detail with a bunch of charts and a bunch of data. So they say, perhaps AI will eventually make many humans unemployable, but there's no sign of it yet. On September 4th, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the American economy added 162,000 jobs in August are above expectations. The unemployment rate just 4.1% lower than almost 90% of months over the past 50 years. Young workers often cast as AI's first victims are holding up remarkably well. The gap between unemployment among 20 to 24 year olds and the overall rate is close to a multi-decade low. Some companies and workers are being severely disrupted by AI, hiring professional and business services is running 10% below the average from 2015 to 2019. Tech giants like Microsoft and Meta are trimming headcounts as they reorganize their businesses around the technology.

29:25Smaller firms such as Block, which is sort of a crazy, smaller firms, but it is smaller than Microsoft and Meta. Block the owner of Square and Cash App and into it, the maker of Turbo Taxing QuickBooks are replacing people with bots, American companies have announced. So 16,000 AI-related job cuts a month on average so far this year, according to Challenger Graham, Christmas, unemployment consultancy. But AI-related layoffs get lost in the churning job markets where, so remember that number? So 16,000 AI-related job cuts a month. In a typical month, the US workforce just churns 1.7 million jobs. And then they add 1.8 million jobs. So there's net gains, but you're looking at less than 1% of the layoffs that happen in the economy or job losses or firings. Less than 1% is AI-related, which is what the economist is pointing out here. And the evidence so far is that AI is already creating a lot of jobs to replace

30:30those as to replace those as it has destroyed. The vast sums pouring into data centers and power generation have set off a race for construction and infrastructure workers. AI startups are hiring, like there's no tomorrow. Incomments are racing to keep up with new AI roles and making some workers more productive. AI may be increasing the demand for their services, add it all up, and the economist estimates that AI so far has created around 1 million new jobs in America that easily exceeds the roughly 200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-2023. We're back. It's September. We're going in the fourth hour. Get ready. 108 days. I got a text from a body who saw, or sorry, a hundred and seven days. He said he already got his tree out. I can't tell if he's messing with me. Anyway, thank you for tuning into TPP and we will be back tomorrow at 11 a.m. sharp. Rolling flashbang. We love you guys. We love you guys.