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It's Wednesday the 25th of March, welcome to the PDB afternoon Bolton.
I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.
Alright, let's get briefed.
First up, the thousands of additional US troops are now moving into the Middle East.
As the White House expands its military options against Iran, while at the same time,
implying that negotiations are taking place, and that there may be a possible diplomatic
off-ramp.
I'll have the details.
Later in the show, Israel strikes a key smuggling route in the Caspian Sea, targeting
a weapons pipeline between Russia and Iran.
But first, today's afternoon spotlight.
The Pentagon is now moving to expand its military options in the Middle East, ordering
around 2,000 troops from the Army's 82nd Airborne Division to begin deploying toward the
region.
Specifically, they're deploying the Division's immediate response force, rapid reaction
unit, designed to deploy anywhere in the world within 18 hours.
In practical terms, this gives the White House a highly flexible tool, capable of responding
quickly if the situation with Iran continues to deteriorate.
Those Paris will be joining thousands of Marines who are currently moving toward the
Persian Gulf, including two Marine Expeditionary Units that are set to arrive in the coming
days.
Taken together, that could soon put somewhere between 6 and 8,000 U.S. ground troops within
close proximity to Iran, and some significant concentration of power that implies Washington
is preparing for a range of possible scenarios.
Now we still don't know exactly where these forces will ultimately be positioned, but what
matters here is not their precise location, it's what they enable.
The Pentagon now has the ability to rapidly deploy troops into contested areas, reinforce
existing positions or support more complex operations if ordered.
And while officials aren't publicly laying out specific plans, of course, the likely
missions are fairly clear.
These forces could be used to support efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which remains
effectively shut down to commercial shipping, or to seize and secure key terrain if the
conflict expands.
What's also notable is the composition of the force being assembled.
The 82nd Airborne is built for speed and surprise.
They can get boots on the ground quickly, again within hours, but they arrive relatively
light without the heavy armored vehicles that would be needed for prolonged high-intensity
combat.
On the other side, the Marine Expeditionary Units are essentially self-contained assault
elements.
They bring more sustained combat capability, including engineering and medical units,
air support and heavier equipment.
Find all told you're putting assets in place that are specifically designed to seize
and occupy hostile territory.
Now in the mixed messages department, at the same time as this force build up is happening,
the White House is publicly talking about a diplomatic off-ramp.
According to multiple reports, the Trump administration has delivered a 15-point proposal
to Iran through intermediaries, outlining terms for a possible ceasefire or broader agreement.
The president has said publicly that negotiations are already underway, suggesting that the regime,
or at least somebody or persons within the regime, are showing a willingness to engage.
But the Iranian officials are telling a very different story than the White House.
Publicly they are denying that any negotiations are taking place at all and warning the U.S.
not to test their resolve.
So on the surface, we're obviously left with a clear disconnect.
Washington is projecting cautious optimism about diplomacy while building up an assault force,
while Tehran is denying the existence of any discussions with Washington
and signaling continued defiance.
Yes, those would be mixed messages.
And that gets to the heart of what the U.S. is actually doing here.
The military buildup we're seeing is not slowing down.
It's not being paused while talks, if there are talks, play out.
If anything, it's accelerating with additional forces moving into position,
even as the administration talks about potential agreements,
which suggests that this is not a pivot away from conflict,
but rather a dual track strategy, one that uses military pressure
to try to create leverage at the negotiating table.
The idea, at least it seems, from Washington's perspective, is straightforward.
Build credible ready to execute military options
and use that pressure to force concessions
without having to carry out those operations.
The question, of course, is whether that approach works,
when the other side isn't even acknowledging that negotiations are happening.
And based on the public messaging coming out of Tehran,
there's still a very real possibility that this diplomatic track
either isn't as far along as suggested
or isn't gaining traction at all.
It's become a bit of a parlor game to be honest at this point within the media
to try to figure out if the White House is engaged in any conversations
and, if so, of course, with whom.
The regime also hasn't showed any signs that they might reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
It seems clear that the deployment of the Marine Expeditionary Units
and the 82nd Airborne is tied to concerns over the Strait
and suggests that ground operations designed to reopen that key waterway
are, at a minimum, under serious consideration.
Coming up next, Israel strikes a key smuggling route in the Caspian Sea,
targeting a weapons pipeline between Russia and Iran.
I'll be right back.
Hey, Mike Baker here.
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Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
We've been watching this war expand across the Middle East,
of course, but now for the first time,
it's reached the world's largest inland sea
where Israel carried out its first ever strikes
in the Caspian Sea targeting a Russian Iranian
weapons pipeline.
Now this strike didn't happen overnight.
It actually took place last week,
but we're only now learning the full scope
after military analysts geolocated the footage
and verified damage through satellite imagery.
The strike focused on the Iranian port of Bandar and Zali,
which is a critical hub and supply route
that Moscow and Tehran have used to move drones
and ammunition and other military hardware.
According to the Wall Street Journal,
Israeli officials say this wasn't a limited hit.
The strike targeted dozens of sites,
including naval vessels and shipyard infrastructure,
used to maintain maritime operations.
The imagery now coming in appears to show significant damage
to Iran's naval headquarters at the port,
even as the full extent of damage is still being assessed.
The Caspian Sea has quietly functioned
as a protected corridor for Russia and Iran for years,
largely beyond the reach of Western naval forces.
It's allowed both regimes to move weapons and ammunition
and goods with minimal interference
at times, disabling transponders
to make those clandestine movements harder to track.
And that's what Israel is now targeting.
The Wall Street Journal confirms that the Caspian Sea
has been used to transfer Iranian-made drones,
which are of course systems Russia's long relied on
to bombard Ukrainian cities.
While Iran has used the same drones
to target American forces, energy infrastructure
and U.S. allies across the Gulf
during this current conflict.
At the same time, Moscow has moved large quantities
of ammunition along that same pipeline.
In 2023 alone, more than 300,000 artillery shells
and roughly one million rounds of ammunition
were shipped from Iran to Russia via the Caspian.
This is the kind of cooperation that Washington has been trying
to disrupt for years, sanctioning vessels and companies
and individuals tied to these transfers.
But until now, the route itself remained largely out of reach.
So that's what makes this strike different.
By hitting Bandar and Zali port,
Israel is going after the infrastructure
that allows Russia and Iran to essentially
sustain two separate conflicts at once.
But that's also where the risks of a strike like this
begin to rise.
Because as mentioned, this corridor
doesn't just serve Iran.
It's a critical supply line for Moscow's war in Ukraine.
I want to point out that while solely Iranian assets
were targeted, the strike could have easily hit
Russian ships or personnel, possibly,
saying possibly forcing Moscow's hand
to directly enter the war in the Middle East,
so you can see that sort of scenario developing.
Now, Russia has condemned the Israeli attack,
warning against expanding the war into the Caspian,
emphasizing that the port also functions
as a major hub for civilian trade, including food shipments.
Although, frankly, after spending the past four years,
targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure,
the Kremlin's apparent concern over the safety of civilian
trade at the port they use for moving drones
and weapons and ammunition, well,
seems a little disingenuous.
And that, my friends, is the PDB
afternoon bulletin for Wednesday the 25th of March.
Now, if you have any questions or comments,
and I hope you do, please reach out to me at PDB
at thefirsttv.com.
And to listen to the show Add Free,
that is a very simple thing to do,
just become a premium member of the president's daily brief
by visiting PDB premium.com.
I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow.
Until then, stay informed, say, safe, stay cool.
Hey, Mike Baker here.
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The President's Daily Brief
