The 49ers Crush the Jet-Lag Bowl, Rams Overreactions, Bills-Texans, and Week 1 NFL Picks With Joe House

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1:10We are live on Netflix Thursday night, fourth podcast of the week. If you missed the other three, go check out my archives. That's Joe House who seems awake. Joe Coffee Joe House? I don't need coffee when we have the NFL, even if it's on the other side of the world. That was consuming everything. The good social media of Australia had to give us. Noah Eagle got off every single Australian. He got it all in. We call it Melbourne. Everybody calls it Melbourne. It's not Melbourne, Australia. It's just Melbourne. Well, a lot of people don't know. We knew we were going about 25 minutes after Netflix's The Game Ended. They were doing a post game show. We simulated this with House in 20 different ways to see if he not before, if he ate before, if he didn't have food. We tried 15 different ways. We landed on this one to get the most awake house. Unfortunately, the Rams, who we found out today from Peter Schreger, who's banned from this podcast, banned.

2:12Well, I don't know. He went on part of my take, didn't come on here. We found out from him. He reported that the Rams tried 15 different staffers last two years. Try to figure out the right sleep science for this. And guess what? It came up snake eyes because they got their asses kicked. 27, 7 in Australia. I don't know where to begin. I'd like to thank the following people, though, House. Thank you to the Los Angeles Rams for taking Drake May off the hook. It was a day long beating for him in the national media. Now that shifts to the Rams. Drake, enjoy the next eight days. Thank you to Sean McVeigh for teaching us about 50 hour travel. Thank you to the Rams for, I didn't really give you a kind of NFL villain a little bit here. Oh, fun. Yeah. The protracted favorite. The, you know, the all star team on both sides of the ball. You know what? It's the best defense ever. They traded three first rounders for Miles Garrett and Jared verse.

3:14They had the 13th pick in the draft and they said, we're so good. We're going to take Matthew Stafford's successor. They were five to one. The one in the Super Bowl. Guess what? It's six to one now. It's already dropping. Yeah. Kyle Shannon. Kyle Shannon has said, if them, if them boys, if them boys, you know what he did? He put a shrimp on the Barbie. Oh, God. Damn it. Don't do that. That's what he did. No, that's what he did. He took, he, he put a big koala nap on them. They, they got their asses kicked. And what's funny is this actually could have been a close game. And it all came down to 17, seven, third down. It looked like Puka scored. Tackled it like the half yard line, whatever it was, fourth down. They run a QB sneak with the, the Krepit back to Stafford, who moves like we do. Why did they do that back? Does he have a bad knee? What, like, what's his number one injury now? He's terrible. It's thanks to begin with. And they decide to do that. It gets stuff. The Niners go all the way down the field and end the game.

4:15I thought that was an inexplicable decision house. Yes. And that was the sequence of the game. The beginning of the fourth quarter, that stopped followed by a 99 yard master class, truly by Shanahan. And Shanahan was, was truly firing on all cylinders in terms of the offensive game plan. This is, and how he ships it during the game, right? It's really magical. All the set in the full back and the tight ends are doing these little in motion, like black and chip and people. It's really fun to watch. This is what we get when you get Shanahan and McVeigh though. There is this chess match kind of thing. I'm surprised we didn't hear more folks getting on the 49ers side in terms of moving the number. There was a little bit of action that seemed like right at the end. Folks coming in. It was like three and a half three. It was threatening to go to three. It never did. We had them at three and a half and all day I was going to hedge it because I parlayed

5:17the the Niners with the rent with a patch yesterday to four and a half each on fandal. And I was going to hedge that in some way today. Oh. And I didn't because the more I thought about it, the sleep stuff, you know, I'm not so sure though. Really it was about the sleep. I mean, you know, reminder, are you going to do talking head thing? Oh, I like to go. When when Fred Warner plays football, when you put Fred Warner and linebacker in the middle of this playing defensive quarterback, when you have Nick Boas, the Russian Russian, the passer, when you know that are on the football field, reminder that man, that's, that's a hell of a defense right there. Bill Simmons. Yeah. I'm not saying that's a good thing. It's insulting to the 49ers. This is a good football team. They didn't win because the Rams made the idiotic decision to fly in for the fucking game the night before. Now, if we're going to talk about the sleep, somebody should ask Miles Garrett how he rested because that was kind of literally rested.

6:21There were shocking numbers, shocking numbers. It wasn't just so he ends the game with zero tackles and zero pressures, which was the first time in a while. It was more than that. It was one of those, wait, is he playing? And they would mention him every so often. And then I know Trent Williams was out there and I know they were shifting stuff away from him and et cetera, et cetera. But he was also not present in the game. And usually like when you would watch Miles Garrett and the Browns, you'd feel him in the game no matter what was happening, right? He was always around. He was pushing his side of the line back. It was not happening. It made me wonder, you know, we talked about this Rams super team. And then the Niners, all their guys played today. They lost two. We'll talk about that later. But you know, Trent Williams, really good at football. Mike Evans has been one of the most consistent, really good receivers for a long time. Brock Purdy, always has been an underrated quarterback. McCaffrey, always has been one of, you know, Fred Warner, both said it's like, these this team's good too. Did you, did you have regrets with the Niners and how we approach them in the off season?

7:27Where did you have them? I didn't even have them as a playoff team. I took them to win this division. If you look at their schedule, yeah, you did. Yeah, because you know, the way you're going to line up for them, you know, the part of the assessment was if they could win this first game. And if, you know, their approach to this rest plays out successfully for them, what they have over the next seven or eight games, eminently winnable, including the toughest matchup they have still in those first eight games is Seattle, which is in a handful of weeks. And they might face true lock. They might get true lock because we, we have an update on the San Bernardal situation, just that he's definitely going to miss at least one game. And the question is whether it's going to be multiple. It seems likely my guy is missing four to six. Yeah. And if that's the case, then it might be the case that the Niners catch Seattle with him out. But if sit down and look at the Niners record and part of why I grabbed the division number

8:31for San Francisco was because if indeed they go on this run, you're not going to get a better price for them to win the division until, you know, much later in the season if they fall off. Well, right now we have Rams are now plus one fifty five for the division. That was basically even, right, for the season. Seattle's plus 180, they're one and oh, and San Francisco's one and oh, they're plus two 10. They're bunched together. Rams six to one in the Super Bowl. They're 11 and a half over under, which had some juice on it for the overs. Now the under for 11 and a half is minus one thirty of the whole. They are to miss the playoffs now only plus two seventy. And that before the season, I think was plus four twenty plus four thirty seven like that. Yeah, but definitely north of four four four four four four four four four four four. When things are seeing as all of us were a little suspicious of this first game and how they're playing it. And I talked about this with the fantasy guys yesterday about where they basically like rolling the dice with this game, but they didn't want to screw up the rest of the season. Whereas the Niners are like, we're going in early. We have to win the game.

9:32And if there's ramifications after we're fine with that. So we'll see what happened. I thought all the travel stuff was fast then. I saw some tweet online. Somebody tweeted like, if everyone cared about the Steve Balmer Clipper's story for the last year, like we cared about the Niners Rams travel. This Clipper Stingwood had been settled a while ago. It's like, no, that's not why. I think everyone with the Clipper Sting was like, just tell us when we know what happened. When the decision happens, we'll be really interested. This travel thing I talked about with everybody in my life. I thought it was fascinating. Like how do you play it? Who's going to be right or wrong? So are you convinced now we learn the answer? Is this just a small sample says? Yeah, it's impossible to say the one thing that was apparent from watching the game is that San Francisco really ingratiated itself with the community was part of the community engaged with the Melbourne. And what do you call the people who live in Melbourne?

10:32Are they Melbourneites? Whatever. There's Barbie Shrimpers. There was enormous support for San Francisco. There was. It was supposed to be on the calendar a Rams home game. It definitely was not that. It was a 49ers home game. Big pops for the 49ers each time they made a successful play. And I think that did have an impact on the energy. It felt like it did. You mentioned the whole bunch of players. The stadium was weird too though. The field was, it felt like the seats were really far away from the field. Right. It's a stadium that's not built for football games. Sure. But the Niners had been there for five, six days. So maybe they won over some people when they were there. Right. Demonstrated a commitment to the whole thing. I'm going to give you four possible overreactions because it is. Usually we have overreaction Monday after week one, but now we have Wednesday and Thursday games. So we get more overreactions. Four overreactions. Pick one. If you had to put your hat on one, give him. Matthew Stafford looks washed.

11:34Mouse Garrett is actually overrated. Rams Super Team momentum is already dead. Or the 49ers are the best NFC West team. And those four possible overreactions, which one do you like? The Super Team being dead one. That's the one. That's the one that feels closest to the truth. We were skeptical from the get go about this. I mean, you know, the Super Team for the Rams, we're not going to see it until it gets to be playoff time and we'll know by then how healthy they are. The Rams are going to be a team. Yeah, this is like what we have in the NBA. It's like judge them in mid May. We'll see how that goes. The NFL is judge them in round one. Judge them in January. That's right. Yeah, they left our own Aaron Donald home. I will say out of those four, Matthew Stafford looks washed. Mouse Garrett overrated. Rams Super Team momentum already dead. Same friends the best NFC West team. I thought Stafford was terrible. I thought he missed a bunch of throws. I thought he looked old.

12:36I didn't like the way he was moving around. He had nine completions through three quarters. Is that good? He missed a couple wide open guys on some big throws. I thought he put Puka in danger a couple of times and just in general, you know, it's weak one. He'll probably be fine. I remember last year, the beginning of this season, he also looked a little shaky. But that was one of the many things to worry about with this Rams team. The 38 year old quarterback and the, you know, who's had some injury and some wear and tear. Things are against him. Okay, a couple more things. I underestimated Mike Evans and Debo. I was going glass half empty on those two. Mike Evans who get plays 11 of 13 games a year and you catch him at the right points of the season. It looks awesome. You had Debo last year in Washington. It looked like he was semi washed. Maybe it's just one of those things where he has to be on this team to look like Debo. Yeah. He said that Debo looked washed here in Washington. He just, the role that they imagined for him, they, he couldn't fulfill and they couldn't

13:39really put into place because they had injuries right away. Austin nuclear got hurt at the very beginning of the season and that completely changed how Washington wanted to attack the ball on offense. So we never really got to see the version of Debo that Washington had in mind. I will say this, he was smaller and he looked more spy tonight than at any point during his time with Washington. He was much bigger in size and playing a role that, you know, he's doing hot water and lemon. But among other things for sure. Yes. And Mike Evans looked great. Somehow the 49ers electric substation, even though they're across the world, it still claimed to victims today. They lost, struggling hurt his ankle and it looked like Tonja's got hurt, but Tom Palasero from the ringer who did the Netflix game tonight. He was saying, didn't look like either of those are season enders. So people were worried that struggling thing was in Achilles injury, Twitter was in

14:40rare form with slow mose of non-contact, but it seems like it was an ankle. So let's knock on wood for that. Let's take them on your fitness team. I thought McCaffrey's backup. Oh, electric. His name is just black. Yeah, because that is named. Yeah, they just keep finding these guys. You're like, who's this guy? It's like, this guy's good. It was like when they got most of that time and they jorted Mason like over and over and they just finally, the manual Wilson, right? Yeah, right. Exactly. That's what they do. So this guy came in. He had a big, I think he played like 16 snaps in the first half. The Kemplin, Caffrey, Fresh, they unleashed him at the top of the third quarter. When Debo has a big kick return, McCaffrey breaks off two run all of a sudden at 17-7, and we feel like we have a game. Yeah, just to put a quick side note reminder, Ram Special Teams still suck. Like, you know, another game altering play from the Ram Special Teams.

15:41They're coming out of the halftime tunnel. They kicked the ball off and Debo has a huge return to keep the momentum for San Francisco. I wonder if the Ram Special Teams staff also did the travel preparation for, no, no, we'll go right before. It'll be great. The 49ers D with Warner back was, I wanted to see it. I wasn't against him. Like I was like, oh no, he's not going to, but I just wanted to see him look like Fred Warner again. He did. Both of them. Yeah. Both of them. Yeah. The big, the big revelation from today, they ran and had it. My wife joined for a little bit because I had the tennis on the, on the small left TV, Coco Gough. Honestly, like, left it on the table there. The third set, tough one. But they ran and had for the Wednesday night Netflix game before Thanksgiving. Okay. Did not go over well in my house.

16:41Oh no. She didn't know that there was a Wednesday night game. I literally wasn't going to tell her. I was going to hide it. I was just going to hide it the whole time. So she was like, wait a second. Didn't they had a Friday game a couple of years ago after Thanksgiving? After Thanksgiving? I was like, yeah, they did. And she was like, so now there's a game on Wednesday? I was like, apparently, I didn't know. I tried to pretend I didn't know. And then she's like, but then there's also the Thanksgiving games. And I was like, yeah. And then she's like, but then they're also going to have Sunday and Monday. And I'm like, yeah. And she was, she was like, you know, fuck this. Fuck football. Football can fuck off. Save this at your podcast. Football can fuck off. Furious. That Wednesday night is one of the great nights in America. I mean, it's one of the all time, but it's where everybody has arrived from out of town. Everybody can together. It's joyous because of what's on tap for the next day. So now we need a football game playing on the TV during all this.

17:43That's what I said to her. It's really for the people in bars. It's kind of true. And the bars are happy day. Yeah, very happy day. She didn't like it. Yet another reason she doesn't like Roger Goodell. Other than that, I don't know. San Francisco looked like they were in mid season form already. And the Rams looked like they were still in the preseason. So I don't know what to make of these games. And the season is now 18 weeks and takes forever to play. There's going to be a million injuries. I think the one thing that today did for real was it threw some water on whatever this super team people had in their heads with the Rams. I thought it was at a control the whole off season. Yeah. They need a lot of things to go right from a health standpoint. They're a top heavy team. And there's other really good teams. And two of them are in their division. So that's those were my big takeaways. Do you have anything else? Just money. I did win money because I had teased the Patriots and under 50 and a half yesterday with

18:47the San Francisco 49ers plus nine and a half today. So that was a big fat winner. That was a good one. I like that one. Yes. So I did win money on now. What's the winning is putting the Rams in anything. I didn't do it. I literally anything. Any sort of points thing and he sort of teased yet ended their fantasy guys. I'm sorry. It was just across the board. Not great. It was too many points for what we've seen out of this matchup over the years. And I understand the question marks surrounding the San Francisco defense. But man Kyle Shanahan, whatever injuries he suffered from his car accident, he is over them because that man cooked tonight. I parlayed the Niners plus three and a half with Shreger not coming on the podcast this week, but going on a different one. My friend Shreggs. I he shouldn't text us for a while. I'll just say that. No, I want him to.

19:48No, he wouldn't go far this week. He tagged me this week. He went off on the shit list. No, shit list now. It's got it. Really make it up. He's got to be. If he takes us out to a great Italian meal, we'll be back. I'll be back. That's all it takes for me. I'm so I'm so easily upsetting. Hit it. I'm not even going to promote it now. You know what? Whatever. Shreggers up to Steph. Good luck to him. Uh, we are going to take a break. We're going to come back. We have ringer one of seven. Yeah. Let's go. By the way, we so we're two games in and week one, two underdogs and two unders. So what does that mean? It's an all time under week. Yeah, because there's no preseason anywhere. It's like, it's learning how to play football. Almost 70% to the under. So beware. Uh, as you look at at the Sunday slate, beware of jumping in on overs. Yeah. Proceeds. Okay. Well, I'll give that that that uh, that Australian game I'm going to give a C-

20:52only one team showed up. Oh, I mean, it's still. It was you know, the entertaining, but it was the Niners were prepared and the rims were not. I give it a plus because I don't know if the referees when they arrived, six total penalties in the whole game. Do you like very quietly in my head? I was really enjoying no goddamn yellow flags anywhere to be seen. Just let them play two very good teams, no penalties. The Seattle, New England fall start here. Illegal shift there. Come on, man. This, this play football. We got that tonight. I know. We know what the other thing with the Netflix. For some reason, there were, I felt like there were less ads. I thought the first half moved fast. Yes. Did you notice that? Yes. They were like scoring or like somebody who kicked a field goal, kick off. We just stayed on the field. We're in place again. Yes. That's pretty good. Okay. All right. We're going to come back with Harlan Cobens, week one NFL picks.

21:53I just said that to help with the Netflix algorithm. Okay. Now, we're going to take a break and come back. And how's the night? I'm going to bang out some picks on Pumplity. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fandall. You know how NFL Sundays go. Start with the early games, roll into the late ones before you know it. Sunday football is kicking off. And then you're watching me and Sal do guests the lines that night. You know the drill at this point. Fandall is something for you every step of the way with the Sunday spectacular. We're talking rewards throughout the day from the first games kicking off all the way through Sunday night. And if you're listening to our Thursday night podcast every week, House and I are going back and forth. Our four favorite bets of the week for Ring of one of seven are big contests that we're having heading toward that Sunday. And then we're going to post one extra last minute Saturday. We're going to post on social as we get closer to the kickoff. Feel free to ride us. We're feeling really good this year wherever the NFL Sunday takes you. Keep an eye on the Fandall app to see what's waiting for you. Maybe take the steers this week that I think that's my favorite bet.

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23:58PNC Bank National Association member, FDIC. Today's ringer 1-07 picks are brought to you by Fandall. Make this your most rewarding season ever. That's what we're going to try to do. Download the Fandall app, check out all of our 1-07 picks and our boosted teaser every week this season. All right, House, we've been waiting for this all spring all summer. We've been waiting for redemption. We are doing ringer 1-07 again. We're changing the rules in general but also for this podcast. You're getting your own five picks. I'm getting my own five picks. We're doing four today. One has to be a teaser. And then on top of that, we get to do a social media pick on Sunday. That's our fifth pick, which is hilarious because we told Raheem this today and Raheem who is the reason we added this rule because all he did all weekend would be complaining about how the lines moved and it changed and he hates locking in these picks on Thursday and two people on Twitter said something to him and he's upset.

25:01And then we tell him we're doing this and then he asks on our text read today, can I put in all my picks on Friday morning? And it was like, we created the rule for you. So Raheem rule. The Raheem rule and he didn't want to use it. So Raheem was teasing himself through the zero. Anyway, shout out to Raheem. Shout out to the dream. Love the dream. So we added the teasers because we brought the teaser back on Fando this year. They're going to do the whole teaser promotion. Six point minus one 10 juice. There we go. After 50-hour bets and we're doing it. Oh, no, baby. So that's going to be one of the things. The teaser. God damn, let's go. So for us, we were talking about going back and forth and if somebody makes a pick, the other person can't use it. But we also want to win this ringer one of seven. There's going to be prizes. So what we're going to do, even if you take a pick and I decided I like it, I'm going to say I'm going to piggyback on yours and we're going to keep track of the piggybacks all year. And that's just going to be a code of honor. Yeah. Who piggyback the other guy's picks?

26:02Oh, okay. Good. Good. That's a piggyback, you're a picks. We want to give the people lots of things to consider, lots of ways of looking at the world. We as we've advanced into our AARP stage of life, we see the world the same way quite a bit, quite often. So we'll probably have to be the world the same way. That's what I just said. You and I see the world the same way. Yeah, I didn't know where you were going. I got nervous for a second. We're more aligned than not these days. Yeah, like we see a story like Aaron Rogers complaining on a podcast that he proposed to Shaily and Woodley, but she has to have sex with somebody one more time. And you and I are probably going to have the same reaction to that, which we don't need to share the podcast. That's right. But I think you and Aaron the same wavelength on that whole story. All things a little suspicious. That's all. So every week we're going to alternate this week because it's week one, you're going

27:03to go first with your first pick that I would mind and we'll keep going. We should mention I really liked this season. I liked the week one slate. I remember last year being just like trying to talk myself in a certain matchups. This one, it's an embarrassment of riches. I had multiple things for the teas. The lines line up to like teams. I really like heading into the season going against teams. I didn't like that much heading into the season. And we had on Wednesday, I thought was a good example of the path line seemed a little high. They covered this Australia game to start it out. I think with the travel and stuff where we've learned nothing from that, we are going to learn stuff from these Sunday games. How's your the first pick? What are you going to do? Let's go. So this will be you, you just hit on this. I want to bet immediately on teams that I have a favorable opinion of for the entire season. I just want to get right into not a lot of four play. We're going right to the meat of the matter.

28:04And that's why the first pick here is the Houston Texans at home catching points from the Buffalo Bills, which is really just a wonderful opportunity. Couple ways of looking at this. In the first place, Josh Allen has had a problem with the Buffalo Bills and especially the Buffalo, no, Josh Allen has a problem with. The Houston Texans, yes, that's what I meant to say. Was it one in four lifetime? One in four and oh and four when they play in Houston. I think that this Houston defense is absolutely magnificent coming into the season. They're the best defense in my opinion, even with the outstanding performance that we saw last night from the Seattle sea hawks. That's pretty good defense. Even with your wise guys showing on this podcast, we were all in on the Texans across the board. That's 100% correct. And part of that is on the offensive side of the board for me. And I think that this Texans offense has an enormous space to improve into.

29:09You have to remember that they had new offensive coordinator Nick Kayley last year and he had in mind a rush attack that never materialized. It could not come together because Joe Mixin got hurt at the beginning of the season and it didn't play a single down. I think that the guy they replaced it with is no longer playing football. Nick Chubb, he is retired. And Woody Austin's a fine third down. Woody marks, yeah. Yeah, Austin marks. I'll get it. Hey, we're up to it. It's a week one start. Yeah. But now they have David Montgomery who you and I both love who is kind of a sneaky fantasy guy and he's a move the chains. Four yards of carry good around the end zone. He's serviceable. Yes, exactly. So I mean, making the case for Houston, the one unit that I trust in this game is the defense and they've done a really nice job. They have exactly the right personnel to cabin up. Josh Allen and we've seen it with our own eyes.

30:11And I think that there's tons of potential for this Houston offense. I think that I wouldn't mess with this game if Houston was favored and I think they should be favored, but there's just two good of an opportunity here. It's in the tick-packs zone. It's buffalo by one and a half. I think Houston should be favored by one and a half. So I'm with you. There's also the Kishan booty where the Pats trade him. AJ Brown gets hurt. They don't have Kishan booty to put in for AJ Brown. And I just know he's going to do something in this Texas game. Yeah, there's a giant question marks surrounding this Bill's defense. New defensive coordinator Leonard coming over from the Broncos. There's a personnel question at all three levels with his Bill's defense. And if the Texans, they suck last year, they did whenever people wanted to go down the field on them, they did. And what's going to be better about it this year? One of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season. I kind of expect to see the same. So if Houston comes out and establishes the run that I really like, what they can do,

31:13obviously the Houston offensive line, you're not going to go crazy for that. The only pushback for this is, you know, you're betting a shot at the job. Shot at the job. Yeah, the numbers are incredible. And interestingly, CJ Stroud, three seasons, Owen six against the spread in the first two weeks of the season. So, but that, you know, that's, that's the counterbalance to, you know, this, this, this Houston angle. It's just some trend stuff. There's some good, there's some good football nerd stuff with this matchup too. Like the kind of defense the Texans have or they can spy out on and they can, they can basically just make him for the DJ moral, be the big X factor that they didn't have last year. Can he open? But I don't know. I just, I think Texan, I think they have the best defense in the league. And this is the perfect defense to go against Josh Allen. It's Petri at the super nickel. He's like, not just nickel. He's super nickel. So I look at that. That's what you're getting at. And I, and the fear would be CJ Stroud would be the, would be the fear that he just basically

32:14does would hit in the playoffs last year. I, I had them down as a straight up as well, but I moved them into the teaser section. Oh, which, which I meant as well, just do now as my first pick. Great. Nothing more fun in a teaser than taking a home team you like to possibly win anyway and bringing them over the seven. Yes. So with the six point teaser, you can bring them the plus seven and a half, which is just wonderful because this is, I think this is, I think this is the, I think this is the one score game where he's didn't kick their ass, but though I think they'll hang around. I think they're going to win, but I'm happy to take the plus seven and a half. Um, I wonder, I think they're the best they have seen team. I want to pat you on the back for this Houston T's leg, especially because these games are always super low scoring between these teams. They don't combine for many points when they play. So that plus seven and a half is very valuable in that context. And they have a top five field goal kicker their home. I just, I'd like getting that many points. And I'm going to put that with the Jaguar as minus two and a half with the caveat.

33:16I know this is an obvious pick. They're home. They're eight and a half point favorites against the Browns. It's the Sean Watson. I have a bunch of reasons I like this one. I don't really like the Jaguars that much this year. Um, I, they'll be somewhere nine and eight, nine, whatever, but this is a nice spot for them. Two things. One, we have two more chances in our lives to bet against the Sean Watson. This week, this is one of them. And next week. And we'll never have the chance again, unless it's a situation where he's like the third string quarterback on a team that has a situation like what the Falcons had this week. We're the top two guys are out. So I just want to enjoy this and enjoy our last stretcher with having money against him and watching him throw grounders to guys across in the middle and fumble and scramble at the wrong times and throw in a triple coverage. That will be fun. It's so sad because the Browns actually have some weapons and talent on offense. Right. And I week three though unleashed them. The other thing and we talked about this, um, maybe sound I talked about it Sunday.

34:20It the weather is going to be hot and humid and jacuzzi. They're saying low 90s with the humidity way higher than that. It might be a little drizzle. It's just going to suck. It's going to be like, uh, you know, like a Miami vice episode basically. So you have a road team that normally is, you know, playing outdoors and Cleveland, dealing with the humidity. DeShawn Watson, who's already got enough obstacles against him. Give a brand new coach. You have no gym shorts for the Browns defense who always seemed like he was worth a couple wins. Yeah. And this is one of those if the Jags can't win by three. Punt the season with them like that. Then that that tells me they're going to be like a seven and 10 team. So my teaser is Texans plus seven and a half Jaguars minus two and a half. Um, Jaguars keep it a one score game and the and the Jags just have to win by by three. I'm pretty good about that one as my first. So this is an incredible segue because shocker. I also have the Jaguars as one of the legs in my teaser for all the reasons you just laid out.

35:21But most prominently, one of our last cherished opportunities to bet against the Sean Watson. That's the number one thing here for sure. They should have a ceremony before the game. Well, we keep us watch all the, all the different people who run the online sports books. The CEO should come out. Christian could come out from Fandall. He could give the Sean a watch. Thank you for your service. You've made so many better money over the years. We know you have two weeks left. Here you go. Um, I just said it's somewhat emotional. Three weeks from now, we'll never have this chance again. It's emotional to our pocketbooks for sure. Um, other leg for me of the of the teas and there are many, many good candidates. I love your Houston leg. Um, I'm putting it with the lions with a lion. I listened to from seven and a half down to six and a half. So not getting the benefit of moving through. But the lions down to a half point from six and a half down to a half. So lions winning outright at home against the Noreal and Saints as a teaser leg.

36:27It's a kind of a must play. I mean, for sure, the Saints have a lot of pundits blowing smoke up. They're skirt for this upcoming season. I understand all the reasons that Kellan Moore seems like he's a pretty damn good coach. Wait, do you understand the reasons? Well, because I don't really understand the reasons. It's the shock in Kellan Moore when they went on their little mini run over the last portion of last year. When she could pick up hard teams. Yeah, you could pick up hard easily with the schedule they played. Bad teams and bad quarterbacks and and but no, the lions did beat them. They did and they did beat the Buccaneers, which really had a big role in keeping the Buccaneers out of the playoffs and kept them from winning. The stinky NFC South. I still have questions about the Saints defense. And I think this Detroit team is absolutely loaded on offense. There is some moving parts on the offensive line that are tiny bit concerning. And it's fine to point at the holes in the secondary for Detroit,

37:30you know, with with Branch and Joseph both out and well, there's going to be an terrible gone. Yeah, there's going to be a week and a broad. There's going to be a week in these first four weeks when they get absolutely torched by a QB. I don't think this is the week. And even if this is, you know, kind ends up a shootout kind of thing. I'll just take the half point. That'll be fine. All I ask them to do is win the football game in this T's context. And the Dan Campbell record is wonderful. I mean, he's great against the spread. He's great in the opening part of season. He has one of the strongest against the spread records and season openers. This Lions team has something to prove. They're forecast to get to 11 wins. This better be one of the wins. So I'm playing them as the other leg of my teaser. I thought it was curious that the line dropped. Uh-huh. And I think it dropped under a touchdown because of the cheap touchdown potential. Was shocked who we watched doing the second half last year against a Lions team

38:31that the secondaire shaky where this is like, Lions are up 14 with three minutes left and Shuck does the drive and all the sudden. And I think that's why it went down. I think the way you played it, this was my backup choice for a team. Okay. So there's three teams that can really f you on a big Asties. One is the Lions who you took. One is the Jaguar, who I took. And then the third one would be the Chargers. If you wanted to bring them down to three and a half. Mm-hmm. I gotta be honest, I looked at that Chargers game. The Cardinals were the other team I was looking at for a tease. And I backed off because they're the Cardinals. But that line is minus nine and a half. Mm-hmm. I know, are we sure the Chargers defense is, I kind of like the Chargers, but are we sure their defense is even going to be that good this year? And getting that up to 15 and a half with the way the Cardinals had some of the garbage times shit they did last time. It's kind of appetizing.

39:32They might be the kings of the back door, the upcoming season with little floor. I mean, this is why I've been cautious with my Arizona exposure this season. They have talent on offense. I mean, they still have weapons across the board. And they still have, you know, running back. They can block a little bit too. They can, yeah, I know that. I know that. I know that. I don't know. Lot of running backs, like they have big play potential with two receivers plus three of my receiver room plus three of ride. Like, I don't want to be on the wrong side of the back door with that one. I thought plus 15 and a half was enticing, but ultimately I didn't want to do it. All right. So you have two picks. I, I gotta do this one next. I just love the bucks this week. And I like the bucks in general this season. They're plus three and a half in Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been a very sexy preseason team. We've talked about it for the last couple weeks of pods. I like the spot for a couple of reasons. One, this line is basically saying they think Cincinnati is two points better than the

40:35bucks because the minus one and a half is a neutral field. I just completely disagreed with that. I think these two teams are, I would, I would have them even. And I think the bucks might actually be a slight, slight more talent, um, proficient. What's the absolute deficient? Proficient. Sure. Pro. Loaded. I'm still telling the firm. I'm looking at talent affirmative. I don't know. I just like their team more. This feels like a back and forth game. There's some unbelievable stats with the Bengals and week one, which we just forget every year was Zach Taylor. Yeah. Every year they, they look awful in week one. Last week they almost lost to the Browns was that 17 16 game, which I think they fucked everybody over on the T's if I remember correctly. I think they were favorite by like eight or eight and a half and somehow they won but didn't cover the T's. Um, I don't trust Zach Taylor at all. This whole Joe burrow is going to be under center a lot more this year when he's the, all the stats say he's bad when he's under center.

41:37That worries me. And I like the box. I just, I think this team's pretty good that they had a great draft and I think they can go in there and throw some punches. It feels to me like an either or three point game. Somebody's going to have the ball at the end of the chance to win. And I think the bucks could win. I like the money line too in this game house. But for the purposes of our contest, I would go bucks plus three and a half. That's interesting. You know, part of the thing also that I like, you know, the bucking ears are coming in off of a failure to cover streak. Yeah. And covered nine straight game. So I like this one coming in, you know, sort of angle wise. The real compelling thing is these, these home openers to the burrow has a tower. Yeah. And he's he's foreign eight against the spread in terms of the first two games of the season. Right. Right. So bucks, they're plus one 68.

42:39For the money line. If you wanted to potentially put them with another dog. We'll talk about some of the dogs. All right. You have the third pick. What is it? I am going with, and this is against one of your rules. But I don't know if it applies in week one. I'm going to a shit game. And it is the New York Jets at the Tennessee Titans. Listen, you think I'm surprised that you're doing this. You have nine jet spets. I think you might have ten jets. How many jets bets have you been having? I have three months. I have said. So the jets is a, I have the jets a million ways on, on teaser legs as well. So yes. I have the jets all over the place. Many of those bets that I'm referring to when I'm making the references in our threads about having jets exposure. It's in this, the T's context. I have them T's with Houston. I have them T's with the Jags. I have them. You see, I just can't put bad teams in the T's. I mean, I really try not to do that this year. I like to straight up the, the salary revenge game is funny because I don't, does he even

43:44have revenge in him? I don't know. No, no. They looked he has, he has semen in him. I mean, he does have. He has, he has nine kids. Right. But they had probably the worst buzz of any AFC team in the preseason. Right. Like they, at the beginning of August, people were seriously looking at them as like, could that be a worst of first? Right. Could that be the Patriots this year? They fit a lot of the profile by the end of the preseason. People were wondering if they could win four games. So, I like this a lot. It scares me. It's a stay away from me because of what we saw from Geno last year, which is now, it's funny. We get amnesia with all this stuff. But Geno was really reprehensibly awful last year. And now it is because in September of the New Year, it's like, well, his offensive line was terrible and he had many weapons and powers got hurt half the year. And it's like, all those things are true or he was awful. I know, or maybe it's both.

44:45Maybe those things were true. And he was awful. Both things could be true. But he might be completely washed up. He might be, but they have a vastly superior offensive line with the New York Jets than what he experienced with the Raiders. This might even be, and you know, folks can look it up and see this offensive line for the Jets might be better than the offensive line that Geno played with in Seattle before he jumped over to the Raiders. You can go back and look, that Seattle team was decent, but that offensive line could not establish the run. I think that this offensive line against the Titans and the Titans front seven is good. And that's the strength of the team. But I think they're going to be able to establish the run very quietly. The Jets did something that was curious. They gave us the indication they were going to be in rebuilding mode. And then they went out in the off season and got a bunch of talent. They got talent on both sides of the football. We all liked them, especially the Overt. Yeah, we did. Like seven, eight wins possibly for them. Yeah. So I look at this offense and you know, they establish a run with Breeze Hall.

45:53They have 80 Mitchell joining opposite Garrett Wilson. Looks like Cooper. It didn't seem like Cooper had a good preseason. That was one where they thought because it was like the Jets had three first runners and it's unclear if Cooper's going to play. So counters to the Jets buzz here. They're the Jets. That would be my biggest counter. It's a good counter. You just have to keep your guard up at all times. I like that you're playing them straight up and that you're not putting them in a tease. I'm with you. I think they should be favored in this game. I think when Sal and I did guests the line someday, I think I was off by four points on this because I just assumed the jet. Why are the Titans favored against anyone other than my anyone? Yeah. They get my amy's the only team, right? That's the point here. And it was, there was a time, I think this line opened at two and a half and it's, you know, bet down to one and a half, which tells you a little bit of something directly about the market. But the Titans over the last three seasons haven't been favored very often. They're one and eight against the spread as a favorite. So I'll go ahead and take that.

46:54I like this Jets team. If we are going to get to a Jets over, then this is one of the wins. Right. And that's part of the priors. I'm going seven and 10 or eight nine if they don't win this game. I think that's fair. All right. We're going to take a break and then we're going to do the rest of the picks. And now it's time for a special part of today's episode brought to you by our buddies at NFL Sunday ticket. Then if I'll send a ticket in YouTube TV, you get every game every Sunday, all in one place. And I cannot recommend it highly enough. YouTube, as you know, has crowned me their CMO, their chief multi view officer. It's my job to tell you which four games deserve a spot in your multi view this week. Well, obviously Tampa Cincinnati, fantasy guys galore. I love Tampa just in general this season. And I don't like Cincinnati that much. So you can guess where I'm standing on that one. Buffalo Houston is the best game of the week. Cleveland Jacksonville just from what's going to happen with the Cleveland quarterback situation plus Jacksonville scores a lot of points.

47:55I have my eye on that one. And then my last pick would be Baltimore at Indianapolis, Baltimore as road favorites, Indianapolis, all the signs pointing toward them being frisky at least for this one. So those would be my four. Also keeping an eye on Atlanta Pittsburgh as well for financial reasons for myself. I guess what I'm talking about there. That is the beauty of multi view. You don't just have to watch Houston Buffalo, which is going to be awesome. Fit three other games in there as well. You can get a flipping channels every two minutes. You just build your own Sunday slate. New users can get NFL Sunday ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. Get every game every Sunday on one place with NFL Sunday ticket and YouTube TV. New users pay $204 or eight eight non-cancemble payments of $30 a month. First charts at purchase availability varies with NFL Sunday ticket for out of market games and YouTube TV for local national games. YouTube TV required terms or restrictions and embargoes apply commercial use excluded at no refunds. All right. Coming back. Next left you have one pick.

48:57This one is easy. I can't believe it's still on the board. It might be our first piggyback. Cowboys Sunday night minus two and a half against the giants. I think this line's inexplicable. It's been between two and a half and three all week. By the time when we locked down the lines on Thursday, it was Cowboys minus two and a half. I'm grabbing it. Back has had a lot of success against the giants and in general, this whole division. This isn't the giants team that I think we're going to see probably in week eight when they have all their dudes back. We're not getting 70 plays from neighbors in this game. They don't have one Dale Robinson this year, which I think people forget. He had a thousand yards for them last year. He's on the Titans now. Look, this is a classic. I was high in the Cowboys. I was low in the giants and it's a borderline miracle that they're playing each other in that. This is the line. I honestly do not understand the line.

49:57I think the line should be Cowboys minus four and a half. This is a case of people are like, ah, suspicious of this Cowboys thing. It's like, I think they're going to be really good. I don't love that they lost their all pro guard right before the season. That's my only fear, especially against this Cowboys defensive line. But man, if you think the Cowboys are going to be good this year, you have to take them in this game. Well, Cowboys minus two and a half. I'm taking them. It's the first piggyback. This is a piggyback. Oh, right. Look at my notes. I had them right here. I could not agree more vigorously with the proposition that this is underpriced. And it's a market that is reflecting sentiment that is not in alignment with reality. This is a harbour driven. He's going to come right the ship. Look at the offensive coordinator. This is the thing that really pushes it up. I know. Let's go ahead. Let's do it.

50:58You're going to put Jackson Dart in the hands of Matt Epping. Naggy. Show me the last time that we saw Matt Naggy give us anything that look like innovation that looked like modern football. I mean, this is a wonderful opportunity. So if this Dallas defense has any of the potential that we've come into this season, anticipate, we better see it because their offensive line remains to my way of looking at it. Shakey. It is not a top half of the league offensive line. Neighbors. Who the hell knows? It's a receiver room. So Wando going abroad is not helpful to Dart. He was Dart's safety blanket. Go take a look. Scalibo coming off of that bad injury. This is not a team that is built to hang in with the Dallas Cowboys within a field goal

51:59unless Dallas's defense looks like last year. And that's the big open question. The other element of this that were- They've spent trades. They've spent money. They've spent draft picks. And as the Bundo pointed out and Ringer Wise, guys, 17 to the 26 guys from last year's defense no longer play professional football. That seems relevant. That's interesting. But look, they're defense. I mean, you could say the same about Cincinnati. And you could honestly say the same about the Lions. Their defense just needs to be somewhere between 14 and 17 for them to be a 10-win team. I think that's going to happen, especially with the schedule they have. I joined secondary. It's super-gettable. You're going to let that cook with the weapons that he has. I mean, this is they better get the pass rush. No Dexter Lawrence. Okay, let's see what this- When Dexter Lawrence isn't occupying two linemen, let's go ahead and see what these other guys have in them. Yes, the brain and an obry factor. That's where three points. You have a giant's home game, but you know there's going to be Cowboy fans there.

53:01You know it. I don't know how many Cowboy fans, but they're going to be there and they're going to be loud. So the one thing that we'll just confess up front, we are putting ourselves in harm's way with one of the most compelling week one trends. God, talk about this. Divisional home dogs. You go back 20 years when two teams inside the same division are playing each other. And one of them is at home as an underdog. They are 27 and 16 against the spread. This is from the good people of Action Network. 21 and 4 against the spread since 2018, 19 and 6 against the spread since 2012, 25 and 9 against the spread since 2000. So all of the more recent vintage reflects that that home dog is valuable, that home individually- Yeah, but I think the line reflects that. And the Seattle and the England line on Wednesday, it was the same thing because it was three and a half. And I think it was as high as it was because of the Super Bowl and the loser and all

54:04that it was basically an extra point toward the Pats, which ended up helping them cover. So in this case, the other way. Well, all through the way. Drew Luckett's quarterback helped them cover. Yeah, that did help us cover. We lost him anyway. Because he did quarterback through three interceptions. That did happen. He became the first quarterback since quarterhouse to 2001 and throw three picks in the fourth quarter of a game he had eleted. Are you feeling half full or half empty? Glass half full, glass half empty about the Patriots again after 24 hours to kind of process it. First of all, thank you for asking. I've landed here. Drake had no preseason. AJ Brown got hurt halfway through the game. The game plan was awful and the Seahawks have an awesome defense somewhere at home. And we started the podcast last night. I felt like we were going to be our six and 11. Now I'm like, you know what? There was a Pats Super Bowl, O3 team maybe, O4, one of those ones where they got killed

55:04by Buffalo 31, nothing in week one and they ended up rolling off into it. So I'm just trying to, trying to calm down. But Drake was really bad and I don't really have an explanation for it. He was just really awful. Well, I have an explanation for it. The Patriots couldn't establish the run. So you let that try and we kept running it on every first and get stuff. And Seattle was like, thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much. I mean, there is a tiny bit of a mismatch there that that offensive line for the Patriots isn't quite up to that elite level to take on a front seven like like Seattle and the innovation of Seattle. What McDonald brings to the table and stuff and simulated pressure and all that stuff. You saw out of Byron Murphy all game long moving side to side. They couldn't be an awesome. Yeah. And he was awesome. Yes. I think it was an awful, awful, awful game plan and it really, it honestly concerned me because it was just the opposite.

56:05Like Danny Kelly was on the pod. He was like, everything the Pats did. He was like relieved and excited. That shouldn't be the case. It's like, please, please don't throw deep on our on our precocious corner backs with AJ Brown. They never did it. They never went home once. Here's the surprising thing to me, the single best weapon and the thing that keeps that Seattle defense off, uh, kilter off of being able to just load up is is Drake running. And he's so good at it. Yeah. Yeah. Drake May running, not scrambling. Scramble. He's very good at it. So my design runs. Yes. Almost like we were doing video games. You sent everyone deep and roll them out. If you can't establish the run, then let the quarterback run. They can't account for it. That's the one position that makes it a challenge. I'm sure Josh McDannos is in the lab cooking up some stuff to resume. It was, it was a, it was a horrible, horrible, horrible, horrible game plan and they were not aggressive enough and they lost the game in the first two hours of the game before Drake may end up actually losing the game.

57:07I agree with all of that. They played like 10 points. It was good enough to win. We did the same thing in Denver last year. And it actually worked because they played the odds right with their backup quarterback. But the Seattle defense is a different animal at home than Denver was. It is so. Also, remember the weather in Denver went from like, you know, perfectly solid. And then all of a sudden we're playing in a blizzard like the weather produced that outcome as much as the backup quarterback as much as Jared said them. The Super Bowl making the Super Bowl really threw off all of the expectations and everything about this past team, which was a young team that last year that probably shouldn't mend the Super Bowl. And now it feels like they should be a contender on par with some, I think they have as much town as Buffalo. But I don't, I don't defensively like Seattle and Houston possibly Philly. Like I want to see this Philly defense, especially this weekend. But for sure. There's a defensive class at teams. That's just a whole level of the past. Anyway, I don't like that. It's 10 days till the next game too.

58:08It's in Boston. Everyone's going. Oh, everyone's going crazy. But it's a home game against who somebody decent Pittsburgh that they have a good front seven. Yeah. And speaking of Pittsburgh. I thought about holding this pick because we get one extra pick on Sunday and holding this pick, hoping that two O was going to be clear to play and that the line was going to go down because this was three and a half. This was three, three beginning of the week, got to three and a half. It was still too low because two was the quarterback in Pittsburgh against a team that has a really good pass rush and two is not a starting quarterback anymore. He gets hurt. Now it's Cooper Rush. Line goes to four and a half, which is in the Vegas zone. And you have this weird Steelers team with Aaron Rogers that inexplicably doing this super candid podcast right for the season. I don't know what he was thinking. inexplicable podcast. Although I did enjoy the shots at Dana, Patrick.

59:12It worries me to lay this many points with them. But I think before the year I had the Steelers of 10 wins. I actually like McCarthy. I think they're going to be a playoff team. And I think the Falcons have a chance to be the worst team in the league or at least the worst team in the NFC. And this is minus four and a half. And I wonder in five weeks is this line minus eight minus eight and a half. So I'm going to hold my nose and I'm going to lay the four and a half. I think in real life, we don't have a parlay option for this. But to me, this is a natural money line parlay with something else. Just take Steelers money line, put it with another game like if you like the Ravens. Maybe you like the the Bengals money line, but I like that Steelers money line with something else. And I thought about teasing them through the zero and putting them in the tees. Just to lay the smack down with Rahim. Just right away to show how to smack down. That's a dumb down. Don't do it. Yeah, that was a dumb down. That's why I didn't do any good ones out here.

1:00:12So I'm going to hold my nose and I'm going to do Steelers minus four and a half against a Falcons team that looks like it's starting Cooper Rush. Well, I'm putting together a parlay. I'm going to lay in line parlay. Oh, boy, do I love this one. What is it? It came dressed in my team's garb today to show my respect, to show my enthusiasm. No games have been played. Hope springs eternal. It's a divisional game. Washington has demonstrated an ability to be feisty with the Eagles. They've also gotten slaughtered by the Eagles. But they look it's it's week one. Nobody knows anything about this Washington. Oh, so you like their money line for this? I sure do not know sir. Why are you bringing a Washington? You already made your four picks. I'm I'm not I'm just saying you you raised the idea of a little money line parlay. Why wouldn't we just go ahead and give the people a way of looking at some other games? This Philadelphia Eagles team is so good in the trenches.

1:01:14Yeah. And on paper right now on paper, the Washington team is very bad in the trenches, especially with the absence of Larry. I know where you're going. See this. I'm not playing. I've already let this any numbers. I'm not playing the numbers. But look, the Eagles on the money line parlayed with the Steelers on the money line is dead even money plus 100. Yeah, I am betting that I'm telling you right now. Philadelphia Eagles at home beating Washington on the money line Pittsburgh Steelers at home, beating Atlanta Falcons at home, even money, money line parlay. Let's go. That's one that I'm getting down right now. Okay. I really like it. And I wanted to talk about some possible options for the fifth pick. And one of these was the Eagles, which is five and a half right now. And I think the way to play them is the money line with the Steelers and Holder knows a bet against two bad teams on the road, basically. My fear with the Eagles and why I didn't put them in a tease other than it would

1:02:16have teased them through the zero. How many times have we been fucked over by an Eagles washing game? One way or the other. It's once a year. Yes. It's once a year. Something where it happens, right? And I don't understand for the life of me why this line is in seven and a half. Right. Other than these divisional matchup on all that shit. That's really the only reason. But the Eagles have way more talent. They're dominant in the trenches. Washington is going to be the opposite, especially because you don't have tonsil. And I just, I'm dumbfounded by this line. Is it because the Eagles, the line is telling you? Well, it's an unknown quantity with the offense in its entirety. Right. Which is the number two receiver for them now, because lemon, I guess wasn't good in the preseason. Oh, you can see it has a hamstring problem. Well, yeah, but I think he's playing week one. I understand, but I'm just saying we barely saw him because he was, he missed a big chunk. A preseason with fantasy drafts because I had two. I'd one on Monday and one on Tuesday. And lemon. I don't even think Wix got drafted.

1:03:18Lemon was like $1 at the end of the draft. Like this is not nothing. So, yeah, you know, if the Vante Smith is, oh, he was a number two all along. Right. It's the basketball analogy for this. Well, not Bradley Biel, not Bay of Biel. Bradley Biel took Chris Paul's number. The clippers are like, they had a staff meeting. It gets a number. Chris Paul's number three. I know, but so what? Bradley Biel was number three for the Wizards. I know, but Chris Paul, I mean, Paul's legacy isn't the clippers. Well, who's legacy is he then? What team is this legacy? The New Orleans Hornets? But for the clippers, the longest, like, he had most of his good years there. All right. I just think if the clippers were ever going to retire a number, it would be Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. They have no retired numbers. They showed us what they think of Chris Paul. I know. I know. They took them to the curb.

1:04:19I know. They are, honestly. So on top of that, they gave his jersey number to Bay of Biel. What a fuck you that is. They should have given it to Uncle Dennis. We've given it to Uncle Dennis number three. Well, yeah, that, I mean, that three is one worse than two. And he took a giant number two all over that organization. They should have a collage number. The clippers, they have staff meetings, trying to figure out how their fans can possibly hate them more. They haven't apologized to their fans. They've said nothing. What about the lawsuit? Oh, we're going to sue. What happened? This whole thing was nine days ago. What are you guys going to do? The season's starting in a month and five weeks. What are you going to tell your season ticket holders? Look at the other teams that cheat, cheat this alloy cap. Circumstance. I look at, look at the, I'm not going to name teams, but word players. But I mean, I guess that's it. I, I, anyway, Devonte Smith might be just a number two. You're right.

1:05:20The problem is we have no idea what the hell's going on with the clippers are. Definitely a number two. Okay. You see. So yeah. So here's some possible for my fifth pick on, on Sunday. Right now leaning toward Broncos, plus two and a half against the chiefs. I didn't do it in the ringer one or seven now, because I'm really hoping that goes to three. I want to take the Broncos. Three. It's a super cheap two and a half. It's minus 105. So the three is right around the corner at a fair, like minus one, 18 minus 120 to get the three. That's super fair. That's a very good price. We're one of seven. It's midnight Saturday night at night. Oh, I, I got it. I'm not, I'm not going to circumvent. I'm going to play by the number that is the number. Do we have a piggyback rule for the fifth pick or no? You have nobody in the back row. Okay. So it doesn't matter. Yeah. So that's who I already, I mean, that's who I'm 96% there already with Denver. I thought about that long and hard for the teas too.

1:06:22That was the other one. They were one of the runners up amazing. I don't understand how this isn't a one-score game when we're the other. I think Denver, both of us think Denver is just better than Kansas City. So that was one. I'm still looking at that Panthers Bears line. There's a lot of good things toward the Panthers than that, especially the weather. It's going to be really bad. It's going to be hot and humid. I think that's going to be advantage for them. The Bears. The Panthers are are a very live teaser leg also. Yeah. But they did have the bad Juju preseason, which worries me. I'm going to stare at that a little longer. I'm staying away from Raven's Colts, except for the over. I thought it was enticing. The over 47 and a half right now indoors. And I don't really trust either defense. And I wonder if that is going to be a point, but Nancy. So we're allowed to take overs for the fifth one, right?

1:07:24I don't know. No, it's just for teaser. Oh, yeah, it's for teaser, Sarah. Oh, yeah, right, right. Yeah. I mean, I like that over quite a bit also. That game is fascinating. I decided to stay out of it. Just like you. But I like that hook. It's Raven's three and a half. I don't like it. Ravens have cooked. Lamar has absolutely cooked against and rumo defenses. He's easy annihilated them. But I can't get into a game with a guy coming off in a kill at at record speed. I just, you know, the, oh, he's, he looks fine. He's been fine in practice. Says we haven't seen him under center. We haven't seen him try and play proper football against it. I'm, I'm very skeptical about Danny Dimes coming out and just whom slotting right in and stiking in that offense being, you know, but maybe modern miracle medicine, maybe so. I just need to see it before I'm going to bet on any of it. There are 14 13 point teaser candidate that over under two.

1:08:27I can bring that down to 34 and a half. So 35 points covers. They'll have that a half. Yeah. When it's back, are you putting out something? Fando, not give us juice on the, yeah, no, I'm going to send it to you guys. Fando would not give us the juice on the 13 point teaser. Maybe we can talk to Christian. I don't know. But yeah, getting that down to 34 and a half, I think there's going to be plus it's in a dome. Yeah. I just think there's going to be points in that game. And then the, the other one I was looking at was that Titans Jets game that you already took. The two stayaways for me. Raiders doffins, especially with Bowers out. It's what really annoys me about this is it's one of the late games. There's only like four late games. And I know we're going to all end up betting on this game. I don't want to bet on this game. I'll bet I'm betting on it. I don't want to bet on it. I want to stay away from it. It's stupid to bet on it.

1:09:28And I know it's going to suck us in. But Raiders minus three. Now without Bowers, I don't think they have a single receiver or Titan on their roster that would get like a 70 in Madden. Right? That's true. Right? Yes. They have two running backs. But right, not a receiver or Titan. Right. And then the doffins who the F-nose. But then the other stay away to me. Vikings Packers, I really wanted to talk myself into the Packers. I just can't. There's bad matchups everywhere. You've Kyler and his first start going against Jonathan Ganon who coached him last year. That's a red flag for me. You have the shitty Packers offensive line against Brian Flores. Even though I can't name five guys in their defense anymore. I'm staying away from that. I don't want to bet on Kyler. I don't want to bet on Greenback with the bad offensive line in minutes. I'm just out. I'm out. I came like not this close, but this close to taking Minnesota. Because it kind of fits my narrative coming into the season, which is I think Minnesota is going to be a slight tick better than their forecast at Winchester.

1:10:32Yeah. And I have green. I'm very pessimistic about Greenback this season. The only other one I was looking at from a parlay standpoint was something trying to keep something in the same game with the chargers and the Cardinals and doing some alt stuff like getting the chargers down the minus two and a half. Trying to get the over under as far down as possible with the over so that it could get to like plus 100. But because I just feel that that game has cheap touchdown potential to me. I think the chargers are going to be pulling it out. They're their freestyle. Yeah, I agree. They're going to be slapping it on the table and flapping it around and doing every and it just feels like they're up 15 in the fourth quarter and percent. Oh, Michael Wilson, the Cardinals aren't that other going for two. And now it's like, oh my god, the chargers, it just has all the makings. Chargers under Harbaugh early season. They come out and they look ready. They look ready to run the last couple of seasons. Like they're like, there have been an early season.

1:11:32They've impressed us even with the offensive line situation of last year. I like the chargers, but I see what you're doing. I don't mind it. They're saying Harbaugh is like a young Bob Chesney. Wait, no, the other way around Chesney is much younger than Harbaugh. I know, I'm kidding. I'm a dummy. That's the other one for Parles. You sell as minus 12 and a half and minus 480 this weekend at home against San Diego State. Coach, the San Diego State made a mistake. Took a couple like light shots at a UCLA about Polos and tried to make it seem like they were the rich kids in San Diego State were the gritty. Yeah, it was pop the collar. Felt sour grape sea. He was also up for the UCLA job and didn't get it. Interesting. I do not think there's any chance you say we'll lose this game. I would put that in a flat.

1:12:33I'm saying. Yeah, I think on the money line. Yeah, on the money line. Okay, hold on, I'm going to put them in. I'm going to put them in. Put them in. At their minus 480 and new. What time do they play on Saturday? Do you know? They're playing at it's a night game. It's 715. Okay, so let me get there. I was debating about going since I'm an unofficial UCLA booster, but I didn't want to go to the Rose Bowl. It's putting my entire day going back and forth to Pasadena. Okay, I mean, that's understandable. Today's ringer 107 picks were brought to you by Fandall. Download the app now to find all of our 107 picks and make this your most rewarding season. We're trying for you. Fandall, play your game. Odds subject to change. I didn't get a chance to talk about the US open and how stupid it was that the best match of the entire tournament started at 11 o'clock. And then people defend it. What? Who's defending it? People were like, well, you got to understand people in the night. No, you don't. No, no, no, no. There's too much. There's too much is people pay.

1:13:33It's got to be a dash. No, don't have to understand any of it. Can you imagine if they started the Eastern Conference NBA finals game seven at like 11 at night and it just ended at two in the morning. Have fucking stupid. That would be. It was like, hey, or when when's first under game seven? Oh, the other games ran late. It's not going to start to 1130 tonight. What are you guys doing? You have Alcharez again, Shelton. This is like the best possible matchup you can have in the whole tournament. You're trying to establish Shelton as American superstar. You get Trinity Rodman in the stands. You have this awesome, incredible five set matchup, which by the way, took four and a half hours as usual. And the games that the match is ending at 330 in the morning. Right. 330 in the morning. It was great for me. I had nothing to do at 1230 at night on the West Coast. I came home from my fantasy draft and watched the fourth and fifth sets. I loved it. But get to it and see it.

1:14:35Everyone I know in the East Coast, including you. Most of fucking America. Like it is stunning. It's beyond stunning. How can you be so disrespectful to your own product? Like this is a moment in American tennis that we haven't had in a couple generations. We haven't won since 03, Rodic won in 2003. That was the last American US Open winner for men. And the three greats have cleared the space. Nadal, Federer and Joe Gleisch are all out. And so it's wide open for Americans to take the stage. And Big Fowl was doing his part and Shelton was doing his part. And Fritz was doing his part. Like, you know, this is an amazing moment in American men's tennis. And they have come up with an arrangement where they have marquee matches going off after fucking 11 o'clock at night on the East Coast. The marquee match. This is the best match you could have. Shelton, the goods alcharez.

1:15:36Do you want people to watch? Do you care about like how is the fucking shit? How does ESPN tolerate this? The ESPN pays a fuckload of money to have this tournament on its station. And then ultimately on ABC, how can you go along with the number one player in the world playing one of the very best American prospects going off after 11 o'clock at night because they had to accommodate two very talented American women, Navarro and Pagula playing in prime time. We can't have that match happen simultaneously with Shelton and Akira's playing in prime time. They can't be on ESPN and ESPN too. That's impossible. How about, how about do a poll? What do people would, where they rather watch in prime time? The Varan and Pagula or Shelton against. It's that shit crazy. It's other world crazy. They tell me as a sports fan who tunes in because it's our national championship.

1:16:38What they're telling me is the fuck off. We don't care what you think. We don't give a shit about you. The matches are too long anyway. And I said this last week, I planted my flag on it. And I knew, you know, I, the tennis people, they get mad when the outsiders come in. But the reality is, nothing before like the quarterfinals should go for 4.5 hours. And I think it's arguable that the quarterfinals should go for four. Like in basketball, when we had the best of fives, the best of fives are great. Sometimes you'd have an upset, but it would shorten the series. Then there was too much money at stake and they didn't want to do that anymore. And the tennis, these guys are, these rallies are just longer. The sports harder to play than it was 20 years ago. The equipment's better, the conditioning's better, everything's better. And the game and the match are just longer. There are like heading toward an average of three hours now. And they have to figure out some sort of fix and they just won't. Well, I don't mind long dramatic matches. It does heighten like the Michelson Big Foe match.

1:17:42That way I ended up going five sets and was. Yeah, but that was the reason that the Alcarez match didn't start to 11 o'clock. Well, no, the reason. The bundle said he was like, well, you had four matches on Ash and they played the maximum 16 sets. And it's like, well, this is dumb. If you didn't have that variable that, oh, if there's 16 sets, everyone's going to be here till 3.30 in the fucking morning. No. Without waiting at home, by the way. The Pagula Navarro was the reason. That's why that was got to shame on at 11 o'clock. Also, like if you have Alcarez Shelton, that match has to start on Ash. I would say like 9.30 at the latest. At the latest. Because it needs to be on television for everybody like you on the East Coast to watch it. To stop me in. This is like fucking get him get invested. Sports 101. Like are you trying to build your sport or not dumbasses? It was a Tuesday fucking night. There was nothing else on. I would have watched it. I would have been all the way in from not and by the way, you know what the schedule said that match was supposed to start. 9.30 at night.

1:18:42It didn't because the other matches went long and then you had to and the Pagula Navarro would just go long. Have the ability to take that other match with Pagula and move it to the stadium that what is 14,000 people push it over. That's fine. That would have been fine. We could have lived with that. I mean, whatever. It's up to to tennis can do whatever they want. I do really love Big Foe. Big Foe. Because it's like rooting for one of those teams that you know, you know, they're going to, the tires just going to blow at some point. You know what it is. It could be right around the corner at any moment. It's just, and it's almost like he needs to go down so that he can have the comeback and go to the crowd and do fist pumps. Like he just can't have it easy. He can't cruise. Well, he's my guy. He's from PG County. He's from DMV. I mean, we go thick. We're very thick with Big Foe love here. Yeah. So, and then Shelton. I think we're going to have a big fight. I can't believe how good shape these guys are in as the other thing.

1:19:45Shelton's doing like the hardest possible serve to do. Like he's jumping up in the air and fucking hitting 140 mile an hour serves for four and a half hours. These guys, I don't think anyone's maybe soccer put who's in better condition than some of these tennis players. Well, that's also part of what really adds to the drama of it. They're incredible athletes. Yeah. These marathon contests, if they were playing at the appropriate time of day, that we could enjoy it. I think I would have mined if it was like three sets, two or three sets, and then maybe the third, fourth, and fifth sets just have less games or something. Like it's like you have to get the four of that. I like best of three up to quarterfinals. And when you're in quarterfinals, or do that play the whole final. That's the three of the quarterfinals is great. Yeah. That sounds awesome. Let's get through it. I also like, I think there could be a mercy rule where if you're up more than if you're up three games in a set, you won the set.

1:20:48I don't know. One of the five sets, but if it's like you're up four, one, you've won. Now let's look at the next set. All these innovations you're talking about in terms of shortening up, that makes sense for less returnaments. When we're playing in the majors, then let's have a rule where we can have five set, you know, competitions for the majors. Or the best two or three until we get to the quarters. Yeah, because there are these, these, the 500 series tournaments that only play best two out of three sets. Anyways, but tightening that up so that we get our best players not coming in injured, right? Like, you know, there has been a lot of scuttle, but in that tennis world about the guys, the schedules to compress the guys are, you know, and gals are not coming in healthy. It's sing it is somewhere the basketball. Yeah, I just, they need to learn to play than it used to be. And the, and what's happening is not sustainable to me. Right, right. Unless you use PDs and sheet in various ways. Okay, with that. By the way, do you see the pictures of Sabatini? No, send those to you? She looks great.

1:21:48What did they hear us of the 80s for us? Woo, I'm relieved. Yeah, no, she looked awesome. Right, I hear that. Okay, very important. Very important person for us in the 80s. Very important person for us. Yeah, I don't even think we knew each other, but my buddy, Bash and from high school, we just, just completely in love with Sabatini. For you or a big tennis guy back then too. Still a big guy. I was. All right, anything else? Where we go? Just this four leg parlay that I want to make sure America hears. We're going to take the Eagles, the Steelers. We already put those two together. Yeah, if you add the chargers and your, your UCLA Bruins plus 192 on a Fandals course book, almost two to one. Will they put that on the leg? I'm going to, I'm going to ask, I'm going to ask Jack to put that on the Fandals for us. Plus one 92 plus one eight to four 10. That's four leg. Four leg. Four leg. I'm parlay. We want to be playing some fucking football season. Four leg. Moneyline. Parlay. Must be football season. What happens if we take Philly out of that?

1:22:49Just out of curious. No, we can do that for sure. Yeah, because I don't know if I trust Philly. Okay, fine. How many times with Philly? Like, Jaylen Hurts, slow to get going. And it's like, I have a parlay on him. Plus 108 plus 108 if you take Philly out. Still less money. That's the other chargers you see. You see a lay. Yep. Oh, man. Plus charge. No, wait. Steelers charges Bruins plus 108. House, you're an American treasure. It's great to see you. I will see you next week for week two of Ringer 107. Don't forget, we have our bets coming. Our fifth bets will be online. We'll tweet them out on Sunday morning. And here's to a whole year of winning. Thank you, House. Thanks to Eduardo and Jack and Chris and Gahau as well. Our guys, we're going to be back on Sunday. And it's going to be live, unneflakes with the dastardly cousin, Sout. I'm really starting not to like coming up.

1:23:52Where did it go? This giant's game. I'm going to be coming off of Cowboys Giants. Right. So I might put as much money on the Cowboys as I can put on a game and feel good about it. Well, House, how's Hank's feel about that on the Cowboys? Yeah, I'll talk to Hank. Yeah, talk to Hank. Hank's doing great. Hank says so, by the way. Thanks everybody. Have a great weekend and we will see you on Sunday night here. Yeah. Must be 21 plus in president's select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 plus in president DC Kentucky or Wyoming. Game problem caught 100 gamble or 1-800-My Reset. Call 888-787-777 or visit ccpg.org-slashchat-comanticat

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