The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

0:00The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by the Ringer podcast network where you can find a new episode of the rewatchables coming tomorrow Monday. We're going to put up a little earlier tomorrow, probably early mid-afternoon ET. It's a good movie. You've heard of it. That's all I'm going to say. We didn't ask the movie this week. Sometimes you don't have to. So that's coming. If you missed the Ringer fantasy football shows live draft that we did on Friday, it was one of the funniest three hour runs that we've had at the Ringer. There's people screaming at each other. There's people ganging up on each other. Sound made about 25 off the cuff jokes. People were eating as they were trying to draft. People were ripping stickers off the little sticker thing. Ripping, it was just, everything was in play. Headquartered nation, temper tantrums, you name it. It all peaked when all of us colluded to completely squirre with Danny Heifetz who thought

1:04he was going to get cute near the end and get a good cubie late. Then we just took all the cubies. Now his cubies, I think are Bryce Young, Kim Ward and Michael Penix Jr. Those are his three cubies for the Ringer fantasy football draft. It was amazing. It was about as fun as I've ever had during a fantasy draft. Great job by everybody. Great job by the Ringer fantasy guys as well. That happened. I was going to do a big topper for this episode about the Red Sox Yankee series. It basically came down to two plays because they split the double header yesterday. The Red Sox lose one nothing on Friday because Raphaela doesn't list a third base coach. Tags anyway, I think Belinger can't throw them out. Throwes them out, Red Sox lose one nothing. That was a great old school Yankee stadium, Red Sox Yankee's pennant race game. I love that one. I didn't like the one as much today where it felt like it was going to be another one nothing to one type game. Raphaela ends up making this great catch with a guy in first base and somehow the first

2:09base umpire who is just atrocious all weekend, just really atrocious. He tells it as a bounce catch. So then there's not enough on the insorie play to a rural cause Raphaela is basically bending his glove over and that opened the floodgates in the Yankees. One this series three to one and now the Red Sox aren't a lot of trouble for the playoffs because they really need to get to the foreseed. I love this Red Sox season. Little weird today. They brought in Roman Anthony and Trevor story from Worcester and sent down Anthony Saguer and Mickey Gasper who was the hottest left handed hitter on the team and the hottest hitter maybe in the league and sent him down he comes back in 10 days but I hope it didn't mess with the juju. Very fun Red Sox season regardless but always hate losing the Yankees. Can only take solace in the fact that the Yankees have won one world series in the last 26 years. I looked it up 2009 Obama's first term year one of Obama's first term.

3:14Last time they won 17 years ago so congrats on your win in August. We'll see you in the playoffs guys. Football, cousin Salon, I did AFC, NFC, overrunners. We taped them all once. We ran the NFC on this feed on Thursday. We were about to run the AFC feed. So if you notice we're in the exact same close and Joe House is still going to be there as our third person and I had five locks that I loved for the NFC and I think I have two for this one you're about to listen to for the AFC. I like the NFC more but Fandall is still giving everyone five 50% PBTs that you can put basically on anything up until the end of August. So if you like any of the locks you're about to hit or if you liked anything from the last podcast like Atlanta under seven and a half or Tampa over eight and a half I think we had five that I really liked. Dallas over Seattle over and then what was the other under I had Washington under. If you like any of those throw those into the little Fandall thing because that was very nice of them to do that for us.

4:15All right without further ado the AFC overunders for win totals with me and the causes next we're going to take a break and then bring in project. This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life NFL Sunday ticket. Man, I missed it. Kickoffs coming. Yeah, we're getting close. We're within a month with NFL Sunday taking YouTube TV. You get every game every Sunday all in one place and it's magnificent and there's no other way to follow the NFL season. I'm something that I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple of years ago because it's the best new users that might include you can get NFL Sunday ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. You heard me correctly. New users pay $204 or eight eight non-cancelled payments of $30 a month. Which charged at purchase availability varies with NFL Sunday ticket for out of market games and YouTube TV for local national games. YouTube TV required terms or restrictions that embargoes apply commercial use excluded

5:16no refunds. The American football conference. Curious why do we do this not on Netflix? This is your conference. We did mine. The national football conference. The American football conference. It's more patriotic. Oh, I see. Okay. National sounds a little more sinister. The national football conference. You made the right decision. Good took over. Okay. AFC Old Guard, New Guard, Old Guard, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Burrow. They're kind of here. New Guard, Drake May, Herbert, Bonex, and Good Trevor Lawrence.

6:18We've only known for three months. Old Guard coaches, Andy Reed, Harba, Tomlin, McDermott, two of them are gone. Post-Bell check. He's gone too. New Guard coaches. Older football, even though he's a little older, Tameco Ryan's and Cohen and maybe Coobee active. Plus, you have Peyton and Jim Harba, somewhere in there. Do you feel like this is like a transition year or this is the Old Guard reclaims everything year? Interesting. I was thinking about it in terms of quarterbacks and who we knock out of our top four. And it's been the top four for a half a decade, right? I'm not ready to move on from the Old Guard. So you're Old Guard? I'm thinking Mahomes specifically and that's sort of the part of the bracket. I am where you. I still believe in, I'm like a half and half. Like half from the Old Guard. I think especially Lamar this year, if he's just not going to run in the same way anymore,

7:22Burrow is an all-time, proven year where he said three good ones and three. But we'll see what happens. I had a question from Joe from Charlotte. How many quarterbacks would you put on Marino Watch by my account? Maybe three. Burrow for early success, durability, probably rules them out. Lamar, in season dominance, like a playoff production and then Josh Allen. So I guess Marino Watch is like the pressure of, oh shit, I might not actually win a Superbowl in my entire career. I guess would be Marino Watch. I kind of like that. What about your guy? My guy's like 23. Yeah, but he made it in the second half. In the second year. Well, he repeated the Marino thing. Do you feel like Josh Allen is officially in Marino Watch? I like the premise of this. I feel like we've gone too far with the Josh Allen hatred. I really do. Not from me. I think he's the best quarterback in the league. Well, you tried to say he's the best regular season quarterback. And I got checked made it. I got, but it's true. It's like, and he's put up big points in playoff games too.

8:24Yeah, it was put up big points. Whatever team he's playing. Yeah. So in a couple of playoff games, the defense has allowed 32 points per game. And the visual is of Josh Allen failing in the last drive or whatever it is, which sucks. Because that's how you're going to end your season. But this guy says consistent as it gets. And we'll get to the bills and stuff. Shades of going Collins were there for a second. We got an asshole. You guys can't believe that. You guys can't believe that. Good. Josh Allen is. I can't believe it. Have so you pro or anti-Jash Allen superstar? Oh, super pro. I love Josh Allen. I like him too. I don't like this situation is in this season. And we're going to the AFCs first. Buffalo. Ten and a half is the over under minus 135 for the division. The Patriots were 14 and three last year. Someone out the favorites. Super ball 10 to one for the bills. Minus 340 playoff. Spive to one. One seed. 13 plus wins. You go plus 250. Under eight and a half is plus 320.

9:25Where are you standing on this one? Do you believe Joe Brady? My what if for this one? We do what ifs for every team. Losing McDermott for Joe Brady. What if it makes an already super shaky defense much worse? Interesting. Because McDermott was allegedly a defensive coach. Right. We're not good defensively. It might screw things up. I don't know if it could be much worse. I don't know as far as clutch situations go. But my money's always on them to outscore the other team. Like I just don't like when we do these over on there's first of all the AFCs used to be a breeze. We used to just take your Patriots to one it. And then for years we take some of the old and now we have to think about it and it sucks. But you have to think in terms of consistency, right? And this guy hasn't missed a game since 2018. He has they have six straight seasons with 11 plus wins. So why am I going to take two wins away from them? And that's all because you like pulls off like David Blaine type magic tricks in the red zone.

10:25Like they're phenomenal down low. They will always score. So you'd have them in the 10 win club, which I talked about in part one. Yeah. Where it's just like McVeigh, 10 wins. I think Ben Johnson is now a 10 win club guy. Right. So Alan, you would say I really tried this aggregate against it last year too. I thought long and hard about how to do it this year. If you're ever going to do it, this is the year, right? New coach, we have no idea if he's good. The best thing you could say about them is they got DJ Moore, who as we talked about in part one, all the Bears fans were ready to try the airport offensive line is good. Although McGoverns already hurt. I don't know. They overhauled a really crappy D, but I'm not it's it's kind of like they painted a crappy house a different crappy color. And they're like, look, I painted the house. Bradley Chubs and Deeson pick up. I know they got the second round. It was a good last year, though. Clemson kid actually DJ markers, so they're helping good things with that. They'll have Deeson pass rush, which we're so and and chub, but I don't I don't know.

11:27They're favorite in 13 games. The paths are favorite in 10. I gave them 11 wins. They won 12 last year. I don't think one player does more work for the overunders for a team than him year after year than Alan. If you just put pick anyone right who's who's a slightly above average quarterback. What's the bow next on the bills? Right. Like are they a six win team? So if you did wins above replacement for football, we have it. We have it with the spreads. He has the highest if you replace it with the backup. Yeah. I had the roster. I had 21 points, which puts them French playoff territory. I only had two guys that got points on defense. So we've been in one of them is Benford who I don't even right. Not even positive. Big strengths are Alan James Cook who was incredible last year and then the offensive line. Yeah. I would say that below average receivers top to bottom. Right. Even the Patriots have better receivers than them now. They're playing the AFC West and the NFC North, which is rough.

12:30Their first five games are reprehensibly hard. He used to start Detroit on Thursday night. So four days later after Houston kicks the shit out of them. Chargers week three, Pats week four at home and then at the Rams Monday day football week five. So what is their record? Have to be for you coming out of that out of five. Texans Lions Chargers Pats Rams. Three and two. It feels like three and three and ten. It gets a little easier. It's weird with this 11 plus win teams. What was it two years ago? It was two or three years ago. They had to win their last six to make the playoffs. They always just seem to find the way. It's ridiculous how they do it. Yeah. I don't know. The schedule they almost always have a first place schedule. It's weird about that. I want to make fun of the Pat schedule last year. Look at the extra games. I think I would rather have the Patriots extra games even with the first place schedule.

13:30Matt Houston at Rams Baltimore or at Seattle at Jacksonville Pittsburgh. I'd rather have the Pat Screens. Yeah. It's one of the big things people are discrediting. The Pat's with us. I always see the schedule last year. Yeah. It's not that hard this year either. Right. There's some people have it. It's really tough to rank the schedule before the season when we haven't seen everybody. But some people think it's like a top five easy schedule again. They have five really hard road games. They only play three games indoors the bills. I was like when they're indoors. But the quarterback say go against Drake May twice, Goff, Herbert, Stafford, Lamar Mahomes, Jordan Love, Caleb and Nick's. Good tough. The best thing that for the Moschedule standpoint is the plus 14 net rest, which is second this year. Right. Which I still, how's you believe in the net rest? You let me always enjoyed it. Yeah. No, I think it matters for sure. Yeah. I wonder if we're overthinking some of this stuff now with net rest and regression. And it's like all the metrics I put net rest like third or four.

14:33I know there's supposed to be at the top, but turn over to differential. That's way more important to me, like the plus minus on that. I don't know. You know what I like? You know what my advanced stats are? Can you run the ball? Can you stop the run? Can you throw the ball? Can you stop the other team from throwing the ball? And it's really those four things. Really? I'm not convinced the bills can the change? Stop a team from running the ball or throwing the ball. And the schedule is harder. You're going to wonder. I am. I'm going to slide under. I'm 10. It's not a lock. I don't love it. But I think their schedule is awful. And they really can't afford an injury to Alan or cook. No doubt. And I have real questions about DJ Moore, you know, because people are like DJ Moore. It's way, why is everybody so anxious to get rid of DJ Moore? So two teams now that have been delighted to move off of. He doesn't stretch the field for sure. That was the problem with the bills. It didn't have like a burner, right? To get like, they're very low percentage. The only thing to worry about with the bills is we talked about these quarterbacks

15:35who just stopped running when they turned 28. He turned 30. They got just on May. What if that stops? Like dad. You dad too. That's it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You dad turning 30. There's some not running anymore sense. The counter would be he's superhuman and unlike Jake May where I'm terrified. He's going to get hurt. Right. Alan, you're terrified. The other guys are going to get hurt. I'm a slight under. I don't love it. I wouldn't bet it. But I think he has to be in the 10 win club. I have 11. New England Patriots, 10 and a half is the over under division plus 135. Steupe find to me that they have the same that that Buffalo is just much better for a division out bet than the Pats. I don't get it. Super ball 17 to 1. Number one, see the eight to one, 12 plus wins plus 220. If you want to short them under 7.5 is plus 380. My what if talked about it on Tuesday? What if AJ Brown is a 2007 Moss like super boost for this team?

16:39We're not asking for five awesome seasons for him. Just give us one fuck you season and it seems like he wants to do it. There's a world word. Yeah, where maybe throws for 41 touchdowns and 13 go to AJ Brown. What was his over under? I mean, if you get the escalator on the 12 plus, it's ridiculous odds. But their deep threat last year was booty who I really liked and I thought he used to made a smart deal with them. We traded him for a seventh round pick and a backup safety. That was our deep threat last year. Digs was the other guy who might get open. He played 35, 40 plays a game. And then I would entrust one other guy in the team. So I wanted to come on here and be like, this is it. The ultimate regression team, they played Alcorn State 14 times last year. They're going to go three and 14. And I can't do it because I think they could arguably be better on paper at least and they were last year. They're definitely better at talent wise. Well, the record with fewer wins like with four fewer wins. I think that's definitely possible.

17:40Well, they went 14 and three. So if they have three less wins, they're still 11 and six and hitting this over. Right. Things just to, I don't think get mentioned enough when everyone talks about the schedule. They still have Drake Man or rookie deal. Just the biggest advantage you can have in football, right? Now, if they're not going to use the money to then give Christian Gonzalez a top five corner back, you know, for somebody's in the low volume, crafts, history of, I don't want to say cheapness. So I'll just say cheapness. His history of cheapness. Very long legacy of trying to cut corners here and they always seem to have 50, 60 million of open money and money that they can push, but they never actually seem to spend it. These owners are hurting. You don't understand. And some of them were spending only $140 on it. Right. Oh, my goodness. Go sell 5% of the team for $1 billion, right? The team's probably worth 10. But so the Gonzalez thing makes me nervous, but they have Drake Man or rookie deal. They are one of only eight teams that have the same head coach, OC and DC from last year.

18:46So they actually have continuity. My fears are because they, they, the O'Line is going to be better. Will Campbell's healthy now. We got the kid from Utah, right? Yeah, they have a little depth. They brought him by from the Bears with a little safety, better and guy in the back is good. So the reasons to short them, you mentioned the regression, the Bravel scandal, what happened, is that going to have any sort of carry over to how he performs this season? I have no idea. And then the Gonzalez contract makes me nervous. But how about this? I have two words for you. Maybe you're not familiar with these. Cover six. Have you heard about cover six? What's cover six? Cover six is a defense that all three playoff teams last year, doubled up. Some of them play like 30%. They doubled it up to 60% against Drake, maybe. And it was effective. It's essentially taking away. It's doing a cover two and then four on the other side of the field. And under call, read about cover six because you could be in trouble. Those three playoff teams did it against, they did the thing they're rushing three or four but dropping everyone back and they started in their second regular season game against

19:50them. And it was effective. I don't know why every team doesn't do this. I didn't know it was called cover six. I just knew it was called the defense that works against J. Bay and last year's Patriots. Yeah, one of them anyone else picked up on that. Well, you know what's going to happen this year. AJ Brown will just run down the field and get open and then throw it out. He's going to take a bite of the six. I think I got the dobs too. I mean, AJ Brown and dobs versus what they had last year. It's fucking bonkers. It's a night and day compared to the receiver. They also drafted this tight end in the either second or third round, Eli Raredin, who's this like just beast blocker and they have just more options than they did last year with. I know today. Yeah, big guy. I have them at 27 points in my roster rankings and they play the following Shikybees. Rodgers, cousins, Murray, Geno twice, Willis twice. So you figured with Buffalo and the Pats, that's four wins against the Jets and Softens. It's just that was the hard part with the bills. Anyway, I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots, not a lock though.

20:55Over to have enough pressure on the top 10. Over 10 and a half. Yeah, I'm going under 10 to half to 10. I think the bills have 11. The Patriots have 10. Okay. And I am not. I have the Pats at 11 and the bills at 10. I'm not acknowledging their Super Bowl appearance. I'm not doing it. That's fine. I mean, you and Hanz, did you make money from the Seahawks at least? I did. That all acknowledged. Okay. But I mean, you guys tore it. You like, he made it in the third, last time and Dak pressed guys like, you didn't make it to the, he didn't make it to the Super Bowl. I likened it to go into six flags and waiting in line for two hours, getting to the very top and then you're on the whatever free fall and you see the drop and you shit your pants and you come back down to the bottom. You play, you play, who's in front of you? I don't ever remember people doing this with other football teams. But he got scared. He got very, very scared. He was, I don't think he was healthy. I know he keeps saying that. I think if they lose to the chargers and round one, and round one. Yeah, last year. Oh, last, most recently come back.

21:56They go 14, three, they lose to the chargers and everybody say, oh, they're young. Oh, they added. Oh, look out for this team. But the further they went and actually makes people, I like them as much for this year. Yeah, well, I feel the same way about them as they did to root the Bears. I don't think they were a football team last year. I don't think the Bears were a 12-win team or whatever they had in the past year. But I think this year was supposed to be the year for both of the teams. And especially when you have Caleb and May and these rookie deals and, you know, it's the biggest advantage you can have. So I hope they take advantage of it. I mean, we're completely going to discount. We're going to get to the Texans later, but two pitiful quarterback performances in the playoffs. I'm not discounting it. I really 95% sure he was hurt. And that's where I landed. I watched him all year and he didn't look for a lot of things. You said it wasn't hurt. I don't know if you saw he said an interview. I was like, don't let anyone try to make excuses for me. I was awful. It wasn't hurt. I'm going to make excuses. Also, our left tackle was playing on one leg. Yeah.

22:56That's bad. New York Jets over five and a half division 18 to one playoff seven to one, 10 plus one's eight to one. Last year, they're three and 14. There's six to one at the worst record this year. So they made two straight conference finals in 2009 and 2010. What? Yeah. Way back one with Rex. I mean, two straight. I think there's been in the last 30 years, 120 teams that could have potentially gone back to back dating back to 96. And I think it's either 29 or 30 have ever done it. And half of those teams are like when the Patriots did it for eight years in a row. And the chiefs did it for seven years in a row. The Jets did this two years in a row. They were in the final four. And then they've not made the playoff since. That would have been not even a wild card. Surely they've come close. It's a 14 team playoffs every year in a 32 team league. It's basically 45% chance.

23:58Never did it. New York small market. How are they supposed to buy? What if for you? What if the Jets aren't dumb enough to tank this season? What if they're just competitive enough that they go seven and 10? Yeah. And now get knocked out of the top five and win a couple games, get their fans excited. And then all of a sudden the America around stops and there's four quarterbacks available. They get none of them. Do you think keeping Aaron Glenn means they're not, it's fine. They're okay with tanking. But to me, it's like I cannot believe that guy is back. And look, I was rooting for him and I thought he took a lot of shit for celebrating on the sideline when they went to overtime against Tampa only to lose. But this is a defensive specialist that they brought in. And they did not have one interception over 17 games. And it seemed like they quit as the last month of the season. That was one of, how many teams just felt like that last month, like they were just like I'm ready to go home. You can't have the defense quit on you if you're Aaron Glenn. It's like that 92 years no one's had no intercept.

25:00He's a specialist and they brought him back. It's like a new hiring a painter and the guy comes out the first day and paint your dog and the hedges. And you're like, all right, we'll just come back tomorrow. You'll hit some walls. So it'll be fine. I don't understand. Well, apparently you had 22 assistants on last year's staff and replaced 12 of them, including the OC and the DC hired Joe House's guy Frank Rake. That's not my guy. Your guy you said he was the best coach in conference three years ago and never said you 100% said it. And he definitely said it. We joked about it and then text rate and he got fired in like week 11 in this first season. Not as Frank, right? Yeah, yeah. Now how some us arrived. The goodness for the Jets, they loaded up in the draft. Pre first round picks the only team, right? And they had a 50th pick. So they had four of the top 50. The bad news is the reason they had two of those three first rounders is because they

26:01traded their two best players and defense for the first rounders. Got a factor that in. But they are, they're going to be better and their offensive lines going to be better. It might actually be like a top 12 offensive line, maybe. So I have them as a slight over. Yeah, they do. You have six wins? Yeah, right now I have them at seven and ten just because I had trouble finding AFC wins anywhere at six and 11. The schedules kind to them for their first eight or against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins and Raiders. So they could be four and four at the halfway point. That could be the exciting story. What's funny, Titans is week one. Yeah. And then they go Packers, at lines at the top of the salivate. And if the Titans were good, yeah, you'd be like, oh, that could be owned for and now what do you do? Defire and Glenn, D.C. Fuck it. Now let's go for the number one pick. But all the buzz on the Titans has been so bad in the preseason. I actually think they'll probably beat the Titans. We're going to be overwhelmed in a stupid way by the winner of that Titans, Jets game,

27:05I think. What we talked about ourselves do that. We talked about this. Try to remember it midway through the year. We were like, let's remember this for next year, the dumbest week one result. Yeah. And the next year was the Raiders beating the Patriots, which just led to all these different dumb outcomes in our heads that then the opposite happened. That Titans, Jets game is a candidate for what could be the dumbest result? I looked through them. But, you know, if you look at the rest of the schedule, there are a lot of games where they should win if they score like 21 or 22 points. I just know with Gino, so Gino went from Seattle, good to the Raiders, just pathetic, Jets offensive lines, probably somewhere in between there. And probably enough. Gino is an outright atrocity last year, but they couldn't block from it as running for his life. So he's either washed up or the Raiders thing was really bad. They play Malikwala's twice, Cleveland, Kim Ward, Cousins, Percent, Kyler. Yeah. Maybe he can win 6, 7 and that's.

28:07I have them at 7 and 10. I don't feel great about it. I wouldn't have the Jets over. Oh my God. I just think it's too loud. I mean, what were they last year? They're 3 and 14, but they traded their two best guys midway through the season. And also had, you know, we were trying not to talk about regression too much, but that was one of the craziest things ever, not having an interception. Okay. Miami Dolphins is the last one. They have a new coach. Let's pour one out for DJ Mikey Mack. That's it. He's done spinning the desks in Miami. The clubs are quiet today. He landed on his feet. Yeah. He's clubbing it out here. Clubbing it out in San Diego. Miami was 7 and 10 last year. They're over under his 3 and a half. I don't double check that. I'm like, oh, yeah, you're right. 15 and 1 to make the playoffs. Worst record, they're plus 220. Good. You want to zag and bet on them to go 8 and 9. It's 7 plus 700.

29:09I'm going to list their highest paid players for you this year. Mm-hmm. Have you seen this graphic? They're somewhere else. Yeah. Two of 55.4 million. Yeah. Not on the team. Tyreeke 28.2. Not on the team. Waddle 23.2. Doesn't play for them. Jadalyn Ramsey 20.9. Not on the team. Fitzpatrick 13. Nope. Zach Sealer. 11.4. On the team. We got one. Welcome. Bradley Chab 11. Nope. And arms that 10.7. So they're eight most expensive guys that they're still paying. You said Waddle too? Waddle, yeah. Seven of the eight are not on the team. They're paying seven of those guys not to play for them. Six players, $162 million. The guys are not playing. Malik will it. They're paying Malik something. I just gave you eight guys. Malik is what was he 20, but they could spread it out. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Oh, man. So the only case for them is if you feel like they actually had the worst quarterback situation

30:13on one of the top three Cleveland, Minnesota, Miami and Willis will actually be pretty good. They're bringing in halfway for the defense. And then could there be some sort of could they just be this funky run team that five times a year, they just rush for 280 yards on somebody that has a bad front seven and sneak to five wins. I don't think they want to. It was a problem. They did the bare minimum. They extended the Von HN, right? Super star player. Who they could trade in October. And they signed Malik Willis just to have someone back there. Malik Willis, who did he walk out on practice yesterday? Is that a story like, you know, and he takes sacks this guy. So that was the story. He got so frustrated with the offense that he left. The wide receivers are just going to hit this. Go ahead. Well, the initial list of who the wide receivers were to those guys. I don't think are the wide receivers anymore. Who is it? Chris Bell. Yes, he is out. Yeah. Well, who are the receivers? Malik Washington, Jayow and Tolbert and two two at well.

31:14I think two of those guys have been nudged out. I don't even, I think they're dead. I checked the depth. I want to say the word. Well, regardless. It's Jayow, Tolbert, Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Texas, tack. Okay. Yeah. Two to four for spells. Yeah. Yeah. It's garbage. It's rough. You know, again, you don't want to give anyone two wins, but very surprised that this team had more than three offensive line is actually weirdly competent. I wouldn't say it's great, but it's solid. Yeah. Secondary is all time. Like they traded Wato basically for that Chris Johnson, the quarterback. And if he's not good, I don't even know who's covering receivers with them. It's, and it's not like the pass rush is going to be very. You're under the Jets futility about 2009 time. 25 years since the dolphins want to play off game. And on the season ticket this year, it actually says 20 across the LV. It says 26. Like, don't even expect anything this year. That's how it is. House loves Bobby. Slow, though. Lot of chop Robinson that they have to push.

32:15That's a brick out here for chop. Yeah. Bobby. So here's the other weird thing about them. And this is why I think there's a real case for the under. They play a lot of good quarterbacks. They have the Drake May, Josh Alon Combo four times. Purdy, Mahomes, Burrow, Goff, Caleb, Love and Herbert. This is with the worst secondary in the league. Oh my God. So this is going to be one of the situations where it's like, oh, my QB is playing the dolphins this weekend. Right. Six of the first nine against playoff. With all that said, I'm ready to be talked into going over and saying that I'm going to go four and 13. Now, I want to talk it out. Oh, I thought we just did. They're three or four. They're favorite in one game against the Jets. Could they do like a funky running thing three times? We get yes. And then it's still an under three and 14 is under three and a half wins. I think it's a battle to the grave with the car. Nils for that first pick.

33:15Thank you, right. And I think if you're going to go over with the Jets, you're not allowed to also go over with the dolphins. Right. There's a good way to think about this. 13 draft picks, though. So maybe in a couple of years, it'll figure out at Raiders, at nine. Winners, home chiefs, at Vikings, home Bengals. Basically, the Raiders is a must win game if you're going over. I think if they lose that game, it's a wrap. You're not getting the over and that. House, give us your FCE thoughts. So I'm in lockstep with the cousin Sal. The Buffalo Bills haven't lost. Well, I'll say it the other way around have won at least 11 games since 2018. So if Josh Allen's the quarterback any place, then the Buffalo Bills are going to win 11 games. I really am intrigued by this New England situation because I think that they're a 10 or 11 win team, but I'm going to sit tight. I want them to start the season off one and three. They are at Seattle, they're home against Pittsburgh, they're at Jacksonville, they're at Buffalo.

34:19If the Patriots come out one and three, I am the win totals that will be available at that point of the season, four weeks in, market calendar right now, get in there and jump on Patriots 10 wins at that. He's still injured, you could see he can't, he can't throw a camera back. That's all I'm going to hear. One, three. That feels like two and two. Okay, I don't disagree. I'm rooting for one and three. The greatest thing about that, if you had the Pats over, if they somehow won the Seattle game, you'd be like, oh my God. That was the guaranteed loss of all of these. Your best price is going to come from them being a little bit where people have questions about the division too. I do. Yeah. Jets over. Jets over. Yeah. They could just have eight new starters on defense. The Jets win out and got Mika Fitzpatrick in and David Onyata and all these guys. Crazy. I kind of liked what they did. There's, I won't name names, but there's a couple of Jets fans of my life, not fantasy. Is that the world? Like, we're the optimistic about this Jets team. I think it's kind of hit the, you know, if we can just get Gino back to the Gino from

35:23two years ago, I do like the tight ends to the, I think he's going to be good. Yeah. Or good kid. Yeah. But we'll see. All right. So NFC, I'm sorry, AFC, no locks for us in this. Nah. You have Buffalo, Nguyengrin. I have Nguyengrin Buffalo. And if you do either of those with Jets three, Miami four, I mean, the higher money thing would be to do the Pats, go Pats, Bills, Jets, Miami is probably at least like five to one. Yeah, it's probably five to one six to one. We'll do this next week, but Jets third place, I think is even odds. Really? Yeah. Isn't that good? That's pretty good. You have, if the roof from just enough. All right. That's it for the AFC's coming back with the AFC North after this. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by a fan duel for the football season begins. Every team is undefeated. That's right. Even the Jets. Every fan believes this could be the year that the team makes the playoffs.

36:24Maybe even lifts the trophy. Fandall, they're right in there with it. You can better know of it. You can use your NFL futures were Ward stack for an even bigger payout. Fandall giving everyone five, 50% PBTs. That's right. Five can only be used from Thursday, 827 until end of the day. Monday, 831. So unlock and use them before it's too late. Take some advice from me and the Cuzz. Check out our favorite futures picks. Get your bets in today on Fandall. Visit fandall.com slash BS to get started. Twenty one plus select states are 18 plus DC. Kentucky Wyoming restrictions. Pi C terms at sportsbook.fandall.com. Game problem cut 100 game board call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut. AFC North Baltimore Ravens. They're over under as 10 and a half. Some juice on the over division plus 105 Super Bowl 11 to 1. Playoffs minus 300. Number one seed plus 410.

37:2612 plus wins plus 125. Under 9 and a half wins plus 200. They were eight nine last year. My question for you. What if Jesse mentor is a massive upgrade over zombie John Harbor? What do we do then? Oh, that's a good one. Zombie John. Zombie John. He's just like, I'm not still coaching. New York Giants. Zombie John. Zombie John gave that New York Giants speech. Oh, man. You play for the New York Giants. Why did they clip that out? I don't know. They put that on their social media. It's like, really? Our wives have friends that they'll send the Instagram photo. They're thinking about posting to make sure that they look okay. And they get like, get the approval. They should be that way for the football teams of these social clips. There should have been somebody in the Giants. Like, no, we're not post that. If you gave a pep talk to the ringer staff and like everyone was just like, looking at their phone, you would fire the social media person.

38:27Like, this is the ringer. We work for the ringer. It was like a Will Ferrell speech. Very weird. I drive a dumb stratus. Never gave away. You play for the Giants. Now he's gone. I have thoughts on this, but I'll throw it to you in the Ravens. What if JC Minters good? Yeah, that would help, right? So and they have like a 29 year old offensive coordinator. So it all helps their Declan Doyle. Declan Doyle. Great name. That sounds like a showtime show. Yeah. New from showtime. Declan Doyle. Did you, uh, is a cop in the edge? Yeah. Declan Doyle. Get that badge. They signed Trey Hendrickson. I you say there's no Carmen in football, but that Max Crosby, how they took advantage of the disabled Raiders and the Ravens. She's a shit every year. Yeah. This year at her, they got Trey Hendrickson. But maybe the car is, they lose title in the bound to free agency and now they have a center

39:31out. Yeah. You always talk about it. Right. I'm the second. Right. So, um, the funniest move they did was extending and I know you like this, the Zay flowers. And they gave him just a ton of money. And like, to me, uh, I think the litmus test is, they're treating this guy like a superstar. But if NBC was like promoting next week's game, like Baltimore against, you know, the chargers, it would be Herbert. And if they put Zay flowers up, would you chuckle? If you chuckle, then it's a terrible sign in giving all this money. I think we're on that chocolate point. So I don't know. It's like an NBA with the last guy introduced him the starting lineup. So I'm like, oh, right. Yikes. There's a reason who's going to be the last guy for the Wiz this year has Trey. Anthony Davis, AJ DeBanza. What are you talking about? He's going to be the last guy. Well, I'm Trey young. He's the most exciting player. It's the number one draft pick. That's what I would do. That's something you guys.

40:32Lamar, since his calf injury, what was it? Right? He 25 yards per game rushing. And that's big. We talk about this guy's all going from 28 to 29 years old, whatever that. Really shocking when you look at the pro reference, pro football reference, the career and watching the attempts in the yards. Right. And I hate to harp on it, but it's big. I mean, on third and four, that was really a lot of times there only outlet like to continue to drive. Trenches were bad. 26 in past blocking. 28 in sacks on the other side. Offensive land is the thing that probably worries me the most. Yeah. I don't think it's going to be bad, but I don't think it's going to be good either. They just need to be mediocre. Two things that jump out. Maybe top three easiest schedule in the league. First seven early early. First seven, it's like, how are you not six and one after these first seven? I talked to Malar last night because for help for the F.C. North. That called Saints at Cowboys Titans at Falcons at Brown's Bengals.

41:33Cowboys isn't real, but yeah. Should be five and two minimum. Yeah. Those are some of the worst teams in the league. And they were two and five of star last year, right? So good. Good. They play, which is another thing I love to look at. This was a huge for the past last year because they played no good. Cubes. Borough twice. Dac. Josh Allen Lawrence Herbert. That's it. Basically seven out of the 17 games. I'm all in on Jesse Menter. And my favorite thing to do, I talked about this in part one, is the coach that can come in and do Mike Vrable, especially if they're following the shitty coach. Mike Vrable following Mayo or Dan Quinn following. Who's the crappy guy? Run Rivera. Run Rivera, yeah, riverboat run. And it's just so easy. It's like, oh, that's where six wins. Right. I had that situation this year with the new co-chairs. But I think the two new co-chairs that were the significant ones, this is one of them.

42:33Because it's like, oh, John Harbor was good. He won all those games. I actually think he's going to be a massive upgrade. I thought he was unbelievable at the charges last year. That was like one of the best coordinator coaching jobs anyone did. Their defense was kind of old. They had injuries and it just didn't seem to matter. They were fine around. And I was one over. As you know, I overreacted social media videos in August and quotes from teammates about players on their team that are young players or rookies. That video of him singing M&M as the whole locker room is going nuts. I was like, I've seen enough the juries in. Should I go have tried that with the Giants? You have the Harpa thing on one where he's doing wheel feral. And then you have Jesse Mentor singing for his team and they're all fucking losing their minds. 12 and five. I'm way over. Way over. So is this a lock? This is a lock. Wow. Can I say this is, I'm jealous of this take now. If I could change it, take it right now. I'm locked into 10.

43:33We're all friends. No, no, not after this. So you're going under. I'm going 10. Well, it's a good year. It's 10 to play off. I have to. And then 12 plus wins. There's been some juice on the Ravens, but 12 plus wins is plus 125. I mean, AFC South and NFC South are their visions. The quarterbacks I mentioned. I guess that I'm jealous. And honestly, if you read between the Lions, you talk to like Mallorna and I were talking about it last night, the Ravens fans was the Harbaugh was driving to the airport status for everybody. It seems like it was the case for Lamar too. There's a little fuck you with Lamar I think this season. Really? Like, oh, you're counting me out. Oh, you think this was a big loss that we lost this fucking clown Harbaugh? Not saying he said this, but I think he's going to have a little, little umptu him. Derek Henry, oh, you're counting me out. You think I'm old. You think I can't do this again. Just the fucking, this is a chip on the shoulder team. Interesting. Jesse Minner proving that he belongs with the big boys. We have a new coach every year that crushes it. Just it's a lock.

44:33I think he's the coach. All right. I mean, honestly, the counting us out, that's the only thing you would go against. Like, what if the running game is not existing with Lamar getting older and choosing not to run? Derek Henry, finally, the touch is carrying catching up with him. Other than that, you're probably right. Week five at Atlanta and their shitty defense. Yeah. Collins worth. I think they're going to have to hose them down. That's an NBC game. Yeah. Oh, Mike. Oh, Mike, I need the Lamar. We, anyone who thinks Lamar isn't back. Come on. Come on. I mean, all the blank could assign this guy. What? You can't get away from that. That's the camera and all the blank in the luxury box. Just beat himself. So when that game, 52 to 10, the next week, lose to the Browns, it quickly, because that happens every year. I'm really hard, aggressive over Ravens. Seven to 12 is tough. Sinsi Buffalo Jacksonville Chargers.

45:34Yep. Panthers Texans. So five playoff teams in a row, plus Sinsi. Sinsi, the sexy team Dujor in the AFC East. Sorry to say Dujor and make you hungry, House. House here's Dujor, I think it's pretty. He thinks of I do like specials. Yes. What special house? Oh. When you're when the waiter comes over, what's the number one thing where you're like, oh, you mean like it's not on the menu? Yeah. What's night special is when he's talking about steaks, fish, we've covered this territory because it is special. The Ville Chop. Oh, we have a Ville Chop tonight. We're going to do it with a little more solace, a little bit more. Wouldn't they give you the pounded Ville Millenet, Ville Chop Billion Ace? I'm phenomenal. That's a blind order for me. Yeah. Ville Chop Billion Ace at a nice restaurant. It's like, great. That sounds awesome. I tune on, I almost always tune the specials out. You never mind. You've already decided. You're like the Ravens. Well, I've already decided on 10 and 7. I don't want to hear your opinions. What's your track record with specials? Like mine's like 10%.

46:35So with that in mind, special to the restaurant, the chefs like that. I was excited to make this. You got to pretend, you know, but you know, I didn't even, what do I care? What do you, he almost definitely has different tastes than I do. Well, since he is the sexy team, do you sure? Yep. There are over as up to 10 and a half inexplicably. They were 6 and 11 last year. Minus 190 for the playoffs. Plus 165 for the division. 21 for the Super Bowl. You can super short them and go under 7 and a half for them at plus 420. Which guy and ringer wise guys is going to do that. What? It feels the bundle-ish. Yeah, they, we've already covered this. The hard, all the short. Yeah, I can't remember. Yeah. No, we're in for 20. Really? Four 20s. That's under 7 and 10. So that's a five week borough injury. They could do that. They could do that. My what if for you never mentioned in all the, we love the Bengals regression schedule

47:35so much easier, Joe Barrow. What if the Bengals can't block for Joe Barrow again? Because I don't think they're going to be able to. Then into a, first of all, it sucks that their defense was maybe worse in their offensive line, which can never protect Joe Barrow. Yeah. And they decided to put all their assets into defense, all the picks. But with part of the logic being, if we improve our defense, that makes it easier for Joe. He won't have to be on the field. It's like, right. Does that make it easier for Joe? He's still running for his life when you run plays for him. How is that easier? I would rather have an offensive line. It's bad, but they did score 37 back to back games and lost both. So I think that has to be the concern. But then again, you're right. Yeah, he's played six years. He's made it to the finish line three of those six or whatever as it wasn't playing that well last year before he went down. Yeah. He gave us 492 points last year. Super bowl year, he wasn't that wasn't his best year. I want to talk about Zach Taylor because this is the hottest of hot seats.

48:38Like, he's number one hot. If this is hot ones, what flavor of hot is this house? Is this like Armageddon? Yeah, whatever the atomic one and one of the last two or three. Yeah, totally. The only reason I don't think it's the hottest is because they're so fucking cheap, they would have to do the calculus of paying two coaches. Yeah. Like, how much is it extra is this going to cost? Well, what happens every five or an a thousand in the middle of the year? The inter-emission system and they just promote the assistant. Now, he had excuses. I don't think he has them this year. If Farrow makes it or not, I think this is it. I wrote funny. He said, hot seat, I wrote make or break coaches here. Just like, this is it. There's no way he comes back if they don't make it. Also, Burrow has not made the playoffs since 2022. And I do wonder if there's a world where my homes doesn't get concussed in that playoff game, which he clearly got concussed and then they left them in to cost the three of us a lot of money and also led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. And Joe Burrow has never been in a Super Bowl. My home just makes it again. Do we talk about him more differently?

49:40Right. He just become deck press got at that point. Maybe way better pass rush, easy schedule and easy Patriots as schedule. That's about it. Extra games at Miami, at Washington, home for KC, no short week games. Right. They finally took a center in the fourth round, but otherwise it was all defense. They signed decks to law, decks to law, and they get him from the giants. They're signing traded them basically. They give up the 10th pick in the draft form. Right. That was it. So the first pick was a second round pick. This guy has historically short arms, they say, cashless howl, the edge, but he's supposed to also help. Third easiest strength is good. I have their roster at 17 points. Burrow is eight of those points. He has an eight. Josh Almsen and I and Burrow is an eight. Chase was a five. I received her points you can get in my system five. Higgins was two. So just 15 points for those three guys at the offensive line as a minus one.

50:44You could talk me into a minus two for them. And Lauren says three points and no other guys got points. And this is like, I take the player ranking thing seriously. I don't know if it always works, but I read all the less like ESPN is a great list. PFF. Sure. They have four good players. I don't understand how we're penciling them in for 11 wins. I don't care how easy the schedule is. I don't see what's different about them the last year. I don't really get the case. I don't normally buy it on Cincinnati. I'm always like, yeah, this is a sexy thing. I don't know why I'm going over. I probably wish I could reverse what I did. But you know, you did with the Ravens and Bengals, but I'm going, I'd go over 10 and a half at plus 105. Well, is that their number? Yeah, 10 and a half. Yeah. They play the only good QBs they play are Lamar twice, my homes, Lawrence and Daniels. And then they move into the Stroud Rogers two times Baker, Shuck, Bryce and Daniel Jones and his one like, and then they play Watson twice, Willis, came over and two a slash Pennix.

51:45I think what I'm looking at given a more than 10 wins, even though I don't even like the team. I just feel like they're going to score 30 points 10 times against the shitty team, right? Yeah. You know, take it for what it's worth. Favourite and 15 games. Yeah, 15. I think that matters. Yeah. I just 11 wins seems rich for me considering a they can't block B burrow injury potential. C how many times how many games did chase and Higgins play together? Right. I was feeling like one of them is banged up or Higgins goes out for three, four weeks. I don't know. 10 wins seems the underseam safe because if there's an injury to chase or an injury to burrow or an injury to Lawrence, like any of those three guys, you can say this about a lot of things, but especially this team, like they have no room for error with their star players. So under for me, you don't like flackle coming in relief. No. Pittsburgh Steelers, there are over under eight and a half. Five to one for the division.

52:46A couple of ringer wise guys kicked the tires on that one a little bit. Playoffs plus 160. 10 plus wins is plus 180. I would do that over playoffs because I think I think it's going to be 10 in the F.C. Under five and a half wins is plus 380. Couple what if sir? What if Rogers cannot make it through the season at age 42? Whoa. Whoa. Bomb shell. Well, what if is there any chance with Drew Aller that they could still hit the over the preseason was pretty impressive for for our guy. Yeah. And I don't. Yeah, I don't I don't feel I feel like they could go nine and eight, even if Rogers doesn't finish the season. What are your thoughts on that? That's interesting. I do have been playing over three and a half games line I made up in my head. I don't know that this recarnation of, you know, Mike McCarthy and I don't know if this isn't the offense he signed up for. The sky throws 30% of his passes beyond behind or at the line of scrimmage.

53:50I mean, they're trying to stretch it out. Yeah, we could cry. I mean, everything was as good as it could be for the Steelers last year, right? Like they were 10 and seven to say they're going to regress two games and break that streak. And by the way, I wish they had a camera on Mike Tomman when they officially go eight nine because that's where I have them here. But yeah, it's, it's all Rogers. Thanks for coming back. But I will not take the fifth as I review his putrid, putrid stats here. 30 second and success rate, 33rd and air yards, 28th, third and three and outs dead last completion on their pressure. There you go. I said it. I think I hit you out of rooted for the team that he had the good game against or bet on the team that he had the good game against all the times that happened. Yeah. I felt like I was over six. How lucky could they get borrow is out. The Raven started one and five two and five. The Browns with the Browns. There's some injuries on the defense. There's a week 13 game. They go Broncos Black Friday at home.

54:51And then the next week's Sunday night football against the Texans. And Tomman's going to be there obviously or it's a time and game. And that is the worst possible defense for 42 rolls. Oh yeah. Aaron Rogers. I just felt they'll be cutting the time and trying to be like. All right. So I mentioned the coaches thing when we were talking about a mentor about how this year it's weird with the coaching changes because they're the ones that I think are going to be significant aren't necessarily the ones you think. Kind of feel that way about Pittsburgh. I think my other what if would be what if Tomman was kind of washed the last couple years. Their offense was an abomination. They have good players in their defense. Like I had in my play rankings. Five guys have points in that defense. Everybody loves their front seven. Right. Especially if they can revive TJ. What like special teams pretty good. Demelding. Their front seven is going to be awesome. Yeah. And look at him and they got it.

55:53Pitman which I think was important. They got doubt of who I've always liked. I feel like they've set Rogers up better than they did last year. Yeah. This seems good. I actually think they're pretty talented. You're going to go nine, 10 wins. What are you doing? Well, here's the thing with McCarthy. He has basically the exact same credentials with the records as Harbond Peyton. That one is super ball. They've all around the same with the wins. Like if you if you hit the names and just looked at the thing you wouldn't know who is who. Right. I just feel like this is 10 and seven. And maybe even a little bit higher. I think their offense is going to be way better. He's good at offense. You had him in Dallas. I know. They're offense. They're offense. They're off and shit. Our quarterback throws beyond the line of scrimmage though. True. So I have to take you through those numbers again. I get it. And I know they get a wide receiver Alabama. They're excited about and all that. But I just I don't like to schedule at all. I feel like they have to go six and three before that mid stretch of Cincinnati, Philly,

56:53Denver on Black Friday at Jacksonville in Baltimore. That is crushing. We tend to 15 to 10 to 15. That's it. Twice Atlanta Jones, Chuck, Bryson Ward. So they have seven bad QB games basically, which is okay. I think they're collapsed proof though, pretty much, because they knuckleballed their way to wins. They win these clownish games. So that's why I have them at eight and nine. But zero indoor games for the Steelers. Outdoors for four plus months. Yeah. I think that's fine. I think that's good for them though. They beat the Falcons week one. At Patriots, Bengals, at Browns, home cults. I genuinely think that's four and one. They're going to have that's what they're going to have to be with those other games we mentioned. The problem for them is they lose to the Browns or have a weird game against the Browns every year. They have week eight, November 1st, Browns, Thursday night football. I'm already predicting that's one of the five words games of the year.

57:54Yeah. I think that's what I did by something bizarre. I like this team though. I think this is the 10 win team, not the Bengals. Wow. You think the outdoor games, though? Although I had the Bengals 10 wins too. I think it'll come down to the matchups. I think they're going to get the playoff spot, not the Bengals. No kid. I have the Bengals at either nine or 10, but I think that Steelers get the 10. I mean, they face the number three past defense right now this year in their schedules. I don't know. I don't know how he does it. I like the vibes. I like everything I'm seeing from the training camp. But I think Tom and I think that just got weird. I think, you know, you're the coach to the team and everybody kind of knows it's ending and he almost didn't come back the previous year. I just, you say all that, but remember, go back and look year over year over year. Their record in one score games. They're, and the record of the Steelers is underdogs. I get it. Nobody matches Tom and for that. And they, they ran that playbook to a T last year.

58:55Seven and three last year one score plus 12 turnover margin. You know, I just think that DNA from that with also having a better offense. Yeah, they could get the funny thing is they're going to get as far as they did that's absolutely the furthest. Well, who they play Houston, the first round and got smoked. You play the outdoor game and now you got a 47 year old quarterback who has to get ball rid of the ball. Yeah, I don't think they're winning a playoff round. I just think they, there's a path for 10 or seven. And most of it has to do with Cincinnati, who I kind of wish I'd picked for nine and eight. But I just, I couldn't, I really had trouble finding AFC wins. It was really low on everybody. Like I added it up and I was like, ah, fuck, like seven wins lower than I need to do. Don't tip your hand here. You had it seven wins. You gave five of the first, we've done two divisions in the AFC and you have five of those teams at at least 10 wins. Yeah, he found the place. He has to get the ball. He's a good ball for more sensey. Yeah, I'm in a blow. I'll attend that's 50 wins. And I know he has used it at 15 wins.

59:56So I don't think maybe I need to move since the added a nine and eight. Move them to the NFC. All right, last one is Cleveland. Cleveland was my favorite sleeper for about two weeks during the part of the summer when you start talking to yourself and the teams. Yeah. However, under five and a half playoffs plus 640, worst record, 6 to one. Last year there were five and 12. They had a harder schedule, a worse roster in the same terrible QB situation. They're in now. They also had Miles Garrett and they had Jim Schwartz and Stephansky. What if the Browns Brank gets to get like a C minus from the QB position? What if Watson has a little bit of a turnaround or Sanders comes in like just a C minus, not even a C plus. Could this team win like eight games? No, C minus still gets in the seven games. I think I think I mean, this is a laughable situation and a mutual friend of ours.

1:00:58Yeah. Who hates the Browns? Yeah, said as just to Sean Watson, signing handcuffed them more than any other player and any franchise ever for as long as it has. Now the counter to that is they always make mistakes anyway. The Browns ownership. They weren't going to win anyway. They were just going to fuck up with somebody else. Yeah. But in terms of like morally corrupt going in and then signing them and giving them the big money and then for him to go out there and say, why am I getting booed? How dare they? It's like, who's going to get booed if you don't get booed? You played 19 games in three years. You've been horrific and they can't move on because of you. And now you're the starter. Pretty rare. You see teams or players, they bum out their fan base, suck the life out of them. You rarely see the fan base enraged. Yeah. It's the hardest thing to do. When they red-sox traded Moody Betts, we were enraged. We really made us mad. This is a whole other level. I don't even know. There's no one, right? This is somebody walking in on their wife or husband just having sex with the door man.

1:02:02Yeah. And not even normal sex. Like a crazy position house. Right. Yeah. I thought house told you not to say anything about this. Sorry, house. No, but just like you walk in on something pretty crazy. Right. What was the movie The Hangover when the people are showing up for the, for the orgy? I mean, that thing over at old school. Luke Wilson comes home and his girlfriend is the people are coming for the orgy. It's like that. Right. The Browns fans are like that level. Like not only is their life collapsing. For five years. It's been a five-year orgy. Oh, four years. Well, some stuff in their favor. Miles Garrett turns out he is eligible for the Ewing theory. They won Jack's shit with them. Got great player. They had another monster. They have had two awesome drafts in a row. Really good. This one was like, they got a new left tackle. Concepts you on embossed and everybody loves these guys at receiver. They got McNeil Warren at safety. All those guys were top 60 picks. The last draft was Fanon, uh, Judkins and uh. Swayche and Jer.

1:03:02The defensive rookie of the year. There was one more and Judkins. They're running back. Yeah. Um, they have young talent anywhere. And I, again, I thought Stephansky was terrible last year. Like to the point, it seemed like he was throwing games, but he might have just been bad. Um, there are offensive lines if you're. And no gym shorts who, um, sadly, they couldn't keep or figure out how to have coach. Yeah. Here's why I think you're C minus quarterback thing. Well, and hold up. I don't think the defense will be narrowly as good. They both like having 45 straight games without allowing a 300 yard passer. Guess why? Because Miles Garrett is getting double teamed. Jared versus a nice player. But yeah, it's not going to be the same thing. So you're not by any way. They're going to have to score 27 and win a lot of games, I think. One case for them is how awful their schedule is. I mean, how awfully good it is for them. Rogers twice, Bryce, Gino, Kim Ward, Cousins, Straub, Shuck, Tua, Dart, Jones, or all quarterbacks they play. Mm-hmm.

1:04:02So if their defense is good, they really, there is a path. It's for them to get to 7 and 10, even if they're just handing the ball off every, you know, for four quarters. I have them as a slight under at five and 12, and you could even talk me in a 4 and 13. And the reason is, now it would be the most brown thing ever for them to fuck up their chance to finally get a quarterback by having a bad pick. But I just, how are the incentives aligned to do this? Like, we just saw Hasamones the Bucks. We could have traded Yannis for Jaylen and picks, right, and tried to be good. And instead they tanked and they're going to rebuild. I don't understand that. He's used to being wrong, but they did ask Hasamore, he offered it. I think they asked him. They told him it was five and a half with his old run. They're I'm serious. And he said he would go over. Right. So that's just something else he's going to be wrong about. That's probably what the only thing we needed to discuss in terms of picking this. So they have Watson for two games at Jack's At Bucks. Yeah. I do. It does a good job with that athletic rotor piece about they're telling, they're telling

1:05:04you all what they think of shoulder Sanders by how they've handled this. Like they obviously just don't think he's good. Right. And there's no other, unless they trade for, I don't know, Stetson Bennett or Tyson Beijing Jimmy G's a free agent. Yeah. Talk to me. Jimmy G. Do you want to go play for the Browns and get the shaker out of you? I'm a slight under. I'm five and twelve. Five and twelve is where I have it too. Can't I couldn't go over on this? Yep. So I am drinking the Cincinnati Coolade. I knew you would. You have to believe that the offensive line that the idea of continuity, even though they were substandard in execution, that the guy's returning, that there's a upside to it. That's the only way this makes any sense because you have appropriately criticized that offensive line. And it has been the thing that's helped them back because they can't keep Joe Burrow upright. But when he's upright with all those weapons, now I have a view, you and I talked about this before taping today, I think that defense is potentially sneaky good. It took them a while to get used to Al Golden who came over from Notre Dame.

1:06:07I'm going to have this too. Half of the season, we talked about this. And the splits for them, the latter half of the season, he did some things that that that uncomplicated assignments, he altered the scheme and they all got on the same page. Now you pointed out, look at who they played. I was in on this area until I look who they played. He won me over for 10 seconds with this theory. Then we went and actually looked at they played. What about you can only play who's on your schedule? No, but I think there were reasons to defense. And it was a very good defense against those shit teams and those shit quarterbacks. And this schedule that the Bengals have in front of them, that's what really bolsters the case. I love what you're doing with Baltimore. And I don't really disagree. I just, to me as a brand new coach, I have Jesse Minter in this Baltimore team in the exact same place as Seattle with Mike McDonald. They won 10 games as soon as Mike McDonald arrived and then Super Bowl the second year. I think it's going to take them one year to kind of get their legs. That defense was so bad last year that Baltimore defense. That's what let them down more than any other thing. Jim Harbock coach and the defense.

1:07:10So 10 wins for Baltimore is good. It's crazy to me that they arrived at 11 and a half. They were the top win total in the AFC for most of the summer. It just dropped down as we're, you know, everybody's starting to pay attention to 10 and a half. So I have since an ad he had like 11 wins Baltimore at 10. And then I think Pittsburgh's taking a big step back. You have to like really give credence to what Tomlin did in one score games. It's not just last year when 70% of their wins were one score games. It's Tomlin year after year after year. I'm not in on that. I get it. And then Browns and last. I get it. I wonder how much of it is just the franchise and the identity of the city and just we're shit happening year after year with them. We're going to find out for that. But we're going to find out now that he's not there. If it was Tomlin or if it was something deeper. The Trey Hendrix and I know we touched on it, but it's a, it's a key piece to this division. It whether or not the right makes it's better. There's a, you know, there's the belief that he's 31 years old. He missed what nine or 10 games last year. Like you're not getting the best version of Trey Hendrix and if that's the case, kudos to

1:08:13the guy that you played. Yeah. I mentioned quickly, Fando's NFL futures reward stack where it's basically, it's a five pack house unrestricted two unrestricted. It's a maker miss playoffs regular season wins player milestones. You can do any of those and you get the 50% profit boost token, a K the ppt pbt. Pbt. I was. Profit peace of is token party. No, no, no. Fando has just covered. You have until Monday, August 31st, the last day of August says it turns out to hop in on this. A bunch of encouraging. That's giving you a bunch of picks. Yeah. Yeah. Give me a bunch of great picks and what's your favorite? Do we have a player one for the AFC or if we knock on to it? Are you like if you had to do your own. Yours is AJ Brown, right? Yeah, we do any AJ Brown touchdowns.

1:09:17I'd probably do the touchdowns for AJ Brown. Yeah. Because I think there's going to be some fuck you touchdowns in there. Be my guess. This Fando list fuck you touchdowns. I mean, I search for fuck you and I go six and a half or something for Henry. All right. The most boring part of the podcast and every ring or podcast is the AFC South and the Houston Texans. It's rare. We're all aligned on. I had to make some moves to be able to get these Houston bets in a month ago that I don't want to talk about. Please talk about it. He made some moves. I'm going to talk about it. My daughter's and then think about it. My daughter's boyfriend Hank who's a great kid. Both turned 21 this summer as did my my daughter and Fando is in Massachusetts obviously and there was a couple of bets I really wanted to get in. I wanted there was UCLA overs. The Houston, the market had not shifted appropriately yet.

1:10:19I can't have my daughter do it. My dad would have no idea how to do it, but Hank, I really trust Hank. I let Hank log into my Fando as me. I get the code to make sure it's me to my phone. I give him the code. He logs in and I have all this money that I had from last year because I actually hit a bunch of futures last year. And he's putting in bets for me. And I don't think it was the closest I've ever felt to Hank. It's a real bonding moment for us. A week later called about it. It's ready to back. We did some more. You know what's great about this for Hank? Like, you know, the groom is traditionally supposed to ask the father of the bride if you could have her hand. Do I have your blessing? And he's like, I don't know. I have his fandal password. I definitely have his blessing to think it's gone. Zoe Cosm was like, Dad, I broke up with Hank. I'm like, hold on. I changed my password. That's the greatest. Anyway, Hank, have you told her she needs to give you a heads up if they're going to break up so you can change the password.

1:11:20Inside information. Yeah, you need that. She's going to give the Adam Schefter. Adam Schefter, what did you say? What did you say? I don't know. Deadfish. You deadfished house. He met houseman Adam Schefter a couple years ago, like a pretty, not that big country club. Gold thing. Very nice charity, but very nice. Yeah. And I went up to him knowing that he'd been an Adam Schefter, been on my podcast. I'd say houses and introduced himself and I'm at the ringer. I just want to express my admiration. I wasn't like I'm not here to talk for a ten minutes. It wasn't an earbender. I didn't show up with with intentions. And I made it clear that I would move right on. I was near the bar. And he just deadfished house. He was on two phones at the time. House that in the house is for two years. Yeah, what the hell? That's why you're holding this in. I've been saving it. He really was. He didn't need to be so mean to Jed York. So I had to share the story now. Okay. It was really upset about Jed York.

1:12:21I've known house since 1988. This is less than three stories of people who have deadfished house. Everybody loves house. You don't deadfish house. I couldn't believe it. But there are anyone's mean to house. Houston Texans over nine and a half. Yeah, yes. Yeah. Division's plus 120. Side me up for that. Playoffs minus 176. Throw that in any parlay. Number one seed plus 950. 12 plus wins plus 220. You love this. Best record 12 to one. I long story case. I'm why I love this. But I'll give you the what if. They can send my salvage strad this year. C plus strap. Oh, yeah. C plus. Yeah. Well, listen, he was fine except for those playoff and those playoff games is what cost him an extension, right? Like he really should have been. Reese anybody else would have. But then what did he do? Five interceptions, six acts, no touchdowns, maybe showing up to training camp with the awkward backpack and like he's about to present to social studies project.

1:13:23I'm admit that might have heard too. But other than that, it doesn't really matter. It really doesn't. He gets so much pressure from Denow Hunter and Will Anderson, who they extended. And that's all they kind of need. Defensively, they're the scariest team in the league. And that's why as long as they're healthy, they're bulletproof the rest of the way. I felt like I was taking crazy pills the entire opposite. The best defense in the league. Yeah. It's the best. Nobody would argue it. They didn't lose anybody from the defense and added blank and ship, right? So everybody's back. I thought they were probably the best team last year and Strau just fucked them in that game. Why did he fuck them? Bad offensive line. They had the worst running backs in the league and they had wide receiver injuries. And I just think he lost his confidence as the year went along. Monk Amory, not being told my grandkids that I saw David Montgomery run the ball in the NFL. Your grandkids are going to have your password to get my grandkids. You're like, grandpa on your fan tool.

1:14:26But Montgomery's really solid. They had Nick Chubb last year who just retired. Yeah. And they had Woody marks and it was just a rotating, you know, and now they're competent there. They have red zone woes definitely. And Montgomery should solve a few of those really frustrating if you bet on them last year. Had them netis to watch them. Collins, the two rookies from last year, they're back. They're back. But no else back. And then tank Dallas and the Hagen spot and they showed for booty who I really liked. And then the offensive line is the question. Yeah. It's not great. And it's the one red flag. To me, the offensive line I'm much more worried about than Strau. The problem is, I mean, the problem for the rest of the conference in the league. Their defense is so fucking good. I'm not really sure it's going to matter that much. Like they're going to have leads. They're going to just absolutely smoke teams in my rankings. I had them at 27 points. I had seven guys that got points on their defense.

1:15:28Anderson, Hunter, Al Shayer, Stingley, Lassler, Bullock and Petre. And that's not that bankership didn't even get it. Fairbare is one of the best kickers in the league. Ryan's I think is like one of the seven best coaches. And I think their defense and the coaching and the special teams can carry this. Seventh easiest strength to schedule. First three out of four home. That's all looking good. I would put this one. Were you that all of us are all in on this? Yeah. And it's my only thing that skaters. Of course. I felt like as everybody was getting behind them, Hagen's blew out his ACL like the next day almost. That wasn't great. But I also feel there's a lot of Strau talk. I think they could be 10 wins plus with Davis Mills. And he shows he could win games only because you only have to score like 17 points to win some of these games. It's a good point. I like Davis Mills. If I was Cleveland, I would trade my third round pick for him. And yet they had 404 points last year, which was the second most in franchise history. So they didn't miss out. So at least Strau had done it. Yeah.

1:16:29At least we know he was good at one point, which was only two, three years ago. And at least we know there were real reasons he wasn't good last year. They couldn't block. They couldn't run the ball. He had nobody to throw the ball to. Lost his confidence. That's fine. Bills bangles to start the season both at home. We know a lot more after week two. But they owned the bills. I think this defense, I think they thought they were the best team last year. Right? They're going in this year. They're like, we're the best team in the AFC. We're going to go show it. So I have them. It's an over. It's a lock for me. 12 and five. 12 and five is the same. They have this Georgia Tech guard who I think allowed two sacks in 43 games. They're sure enough that offensive line as much as they can. They got a Michigan tight end. So I don't know. And that's that schedule. What did we say four prime time? They play the Jags and London for night road games. Yes. Jags and London. So that's not awesome.

1:17:30No teams coming off the buy. They face no teams coming off the buy. AFC South goes AFC North and NFC East. So not awesome. They play Alan Burrow, Dak Herbert, Lamar love, Daniels and Hertz. And I'm not sure that's going to matter. They end the season with the Titans, which could be dangerous for the 12 plus wins bet. If they have whatever quenched and they don't know how I should have you had. You got that far. All in. I really like the coach too. I think he's good. I think they probably should have beaten the past last year. They just grab just single hand and they screwed the game up. But we can do anything against their defense. And that eventually the defense realized like, oh, we're just screwed. Jacksonville eight and a half plus two 10 for the division 27 to one for Super Bowl minus one oh six for the playoffs. Really the most dead even about the playoffs. Full plus wins plus 360 under seven half wins plus 190. This is yet another turnover regression team. Everybody's been regressing.

1:18:30We need a word for this. It's a regress regression orgy. Yeah, just these regression teams. But what if there's a crazy turnover regression coming for them? And then you pick apart the streak at the end that eight games. They're averaging 32 a game and you actually go back and look at some of those games. The only really super impressive one was Denver. Right. And there's some other ones like they played Indy twice during that stretch after Jones had already gotten hurt. And yeah, I can't get there with this team. I don't know. This is the one where my reasoning doesn't match up with my pick at all. And I have them at 10 wins. And last year we sat here and I picked them the win the division because Travis Hunters and we were great and Brian Thomas Gehringer is going to have a great, what a sophomore year either neither one didn't play and one barely played and it was terrible and it was all Jacobi Myers coming in and Lawrence like stepping up like we know no one's business. At the end's gone again, I don't know why I'm ignoring the regression here. They had what six one score games and top three and takeaways.

1:19:33But I do think this is just one of my gut feelings. I'm going under because I think Indianapolis takes a tumble. And I think Lawrence has the confidence to get them the double digit wins at this point. So you're under on the jacks? No, well, is it 10 to half? I'm going 10 to half. Yeah, I'm going 10 wins. Yeah, so you're over. Yeah. Yeah. I'm on to choose to the over. Yeah. I have them at eight nine. You could talk me in a nine and eight. You cannot talk me in the 10. My biggest thing with them, you know, this hunter trade they did, which cost them a lot of draft capital. Like their draft sucked. I think they had the worst draft in the league. And all the people I know who like the draft also thought it was the worst draft anyone had. The tight end. No first round 19 catches. Yeah, it was just weird. Yeah, it was not good. They lost ETN. They lost Lloyd. They were playing I guess Tutan, hopefully, keep your fingers crossed. We talked about him on Tuesday's spot. Low average offensive line. It's another thing I don't like. And then the Brian Thomas Jr. where it's like, no, no, he's doing great.

1:20:35So I had him last year. I've never taken that guy again. I had a red flags. From a roster standpoint, I had them at 15. And that's what giving Parker Washington a two. I only had three guys on defense that I thought were impactful. And I don't like the schedule at all. They have nine road games plus two in London. So they have six home games in Jacksonville. And then 11 games at all other locations. And defenses they go against this year. Cleveland, Denver, New England, Philly, Houston, twice, Baltimore, Giants, if they're good and a shootout with the Bears. But I couldn't get there. Yeah, again, I don't have a lot to that. They have to get to December. Like that's what they have kind of easier. They have with Dallas, Washington, Indianapolis. I think they have 35 days between home games because they're doing renovations on their stadium. But I have them winning both London games. So that's what I'm going to tell you. So that includes beating the Texans.

1:21:35Yeah. So I had them getting swept by the Texans, which then puts them eight and seven for everybody else. Sure. And I think there are 500 teams. I don't feel great about it. I certainly would have made it a lock or anything. I just don't understand. So letting it go. And then you get Tutan and Chris Rodriguez, House's guy. Do you watch him last year thinking? He's fine. He's a third string run in the middle, third stringer. He's a problem for this team. They're run game was so important for them. They have a doofus GM. James Gladstone. We can call him out by name. He's a goofball. He's on the wrong side. He's like all of the draft analysts. He's picking guys, you know, 30 spots earlier than where consensus has guys. And he's done it for two years. He grossly overpaid for Travis Hunter. He's the single biggest impediment to this team's advancement. Because Column is good. He's a good head coach. Did he dead fish you? Is that why you're upset?

1:22:35I don't know. He dead fish. I'm not a James. Wow. Passers like, hey, you know what I'm doing? He's like, hey, no, sir. Indianapolis coats over eight and a half. I tailed two seasons last year. Yeah. Number one C 25 to one. I'm going to rule that out under six and a half wins plus two 10 division plus three 40. What if Daniel Jones, who blew as a kill is out halfway through last season, is not 100% this season? No doubt. How can you pick this team for any for a winning record if it's Daniel Jones, not 100%. Yeah. I don't see the case. This is my lock under six and 11. Sorry, Tony Tokens, Tony and all the token, token family, everybody. Yeah. I'm going under here. I think you're right. I think we'd have to do exactly what he did last year, which means use his legs to extend plays. And I don't think it's happening. And Pierce just came off the PUP as far as that part may be nervous to big contract

1:23:37for Pierce hasn't got the surgery after the contract or whatever the timeline was. And now it doesn't seem like he's 100%. I don't know why I'm taking them. And they can't pin them. They lost pitman. I'm digging them for what Jacksonville did too. They had turnovers in 15 games. They forced turnovers. So I don't think that's happening again. I think this is a six and 11 team. Ravens week one at Chiefs week two Texans week three. Yeah. That's o and three with Daniel Jones on one leg basically. I think you can keep going. I think it's worse and worse. It's crazy. I really was thinking about a lot. Should we lock this down together? The other part of it is Luana Ramos. The second version of his defense. I like it less and less. The bendo break. Yeah, the bendo break. I think it breaks. Yeah. I mean, eight, nine and eight. I'm not going to lock it. Top three tacklers gone. Franklin cross Pratt. I might lock it. I'm going to keep thinking about it. All right. Their first day to add or not enjoy.

1:24:39Good offensive line though. I'm not going to lock it. Tyler Warren. Sure. Taylor was great last year. They get a full sauce gardener season. We'll see if Ward can avoid the concussions. All right. Titans over five and a half. Under four and a half is plus two 20. We're records plus seven, 15. I can be the other ones. They did bring in big shot Bob, Sala, and Dave all. What if K-A-Mord doesn't have it? It just doesn't have it. It's not good. The advanced stats against him were horrific last year. But they also had the worst coach probably this decade. He's got to show a little more than once a month doing that thing where he rolls right and he's almost stepping out of bounds. But then he's at a cross the field. Yeah. The video's like play. Yeah, it's a little bit of a hell marry and did that like twice and everyone's like, oh, maybe there's something there. But yeah, you're right. The EPA, everything. It's way under. Really?

1:25:40Really bad. You can't even compare it to, I don't know, Drake Mays rookie year. Like if you watch Drake May that year, like man, this guy, I was really bullish on him after the years running for his life, but he was making plays and seemed like a winning quarterback and Ward, I want him to be good. We need more good quarterbacks. I just don't know if he's good. And again, there's a pressure on us to go from a four to a one, the fourth place to the first place. I did put them at eight wins. I do think Wondell Robinson is going to help and Carl Tate. That'll be as good a wide-racing return. Eight wins this year? Yeah, this year, 2020 is eight and nine. Yeah. It's okay. What's wrong? You hear this house? How's he needs help? What? You've Tennessee at eight and nine? Yeah. Gus Bradley defensive coordinator. You got salad and there's a terrible. That's fine. It's going to be good. Well, the eight and nine. They were at six and a half nearly all summer in terms of the wind total. And then here we are and it's down to five and a half. Locked me in.

1:26:40But juice to the over. Franklin Myers, that Denver player is really good. They locked him in. I think the defense will be better. It's been over almost $300 million on free agent. Right. So it's six wins is minus 135. It's caused the saying that you see there's a possibility for two more. And the schedule is including that week 18 game that you talked about. Right. They drafted Tate and they signed Wondell Robinson. So he's got two weapons. That's a Jets and Giants two out of the first three weeks. That's going to tell the story of the season. That's salad and table. That'll be fun for sure. I don't mean to be a dick because he seems like a great guy and shaker like some. Even if shaker won't come on my podcast anymore. What? Nah, he won't. That's more that's like TV SPN. Oh, yeah. Okay. So friends with them friendly, friendly, but just won't come on. Meena is on a SPN. She comes on. Shrinks. I know multiple competitions. Really? No kidding. No make excuse. Fine. You play golf. You're here.

1:27:41I know. I had for their roster. I had offensive line to Simmons three points, Stone House one. And that was sort of the all the guys that got points on this defense. Even Frank on Myers. I wouldn't put points for it. All right. Here's the thing though. Big shot Bob Salah, mentioned friend of Shriger. He was terrible on the Jets. We were like, we called him a kid Salah. We talked about what a fucking train wreck that team was. They didn't have a lot of help. Their defense was always pretty good with him, but you know, and then Dave Hall was a maniac in the giant sideline. So I don't know. I can't get this. Well, we're forced to take a fourth place team and I won't put one in the playoffs like this, but they can go a win and a half over their expectation right now. Why not? Yeah. That's all. They have to beat the Jets week one in the Salah revenge game. Because after that, if I'm looking for wins at giants, maybe at Colts, home Browns, one of the Jags games, home commanders at Raiders.

1:28:45Yeah. Now you're in that six. But I you have to win the 80% of those. Yeah. I'm going five and 12 under. I don't feel great about it. House, the AFC South, talked us. Yeah, I mean, we're so bullish on Houston and we all bet them. I'm all the way up at like, you know, 12 wins. The all win total for Houston. The most important thing for them to me is giving that their offensive coordinator Kaylee, the opportunity to run strad out of under center. And that's going to translate into a bunch of opportunities with motion and all kinds of stuff. You can't see their offense because they thought Joe Mixen was going to play running back for them until the goddamn season started. They didn't have a plan B. So this is the version of the offense. And I think it really helps settle down the offensive line as well. So that's why that's part of the case for being bullish on on Houston. The Jacksonville thing is so fucking weird. They were 13 wins.

1:29:46And the market said congratulations. We think you're at eight and a half win T 13 last year. And now here's your win. Why don't you have this about this or the Patriots you didn't like that this respect? I've no I've no counter. And yet I think it's the right number. And it's the right number because of the GM stinks. They're not replenishing. They're letting us walk and they're not replenishing. That's from the Patriots actually got better. Oh, okay. The Jaguar's got worse by any way you want to look at it. They have worse parts than they did last year. It's just a fact. I'm mystified by the cults. I think Stikin is incredible. And what he showed us over the first seven games last year, it was like what a revelation that nobody had the cults coming out and leading the league in efficiency and scoring and all the rest of it. But I cannot I will not and cannot and under any circumstances endorse a guy coming off in a kill is this in this short period of time. And think that that oh, that's a their quarterback room with impaired Daniel Jones and Riley

1:30:49Leonard and Anthony Richardson. That's as bad as it gets. It's just to move down the third by the way on the down chart. Yeah, probably one of the. So I'm under on the Jaguars, the Titans and the cults. Yeah, it over on the Texans. I think this is a one one horse division. Right. His house was worried I was taking too many 10 plus one. 10 plus one. Yeah, kind of running. You're going to have a couple here. You worked it out, but there should be a couple more. I think there's there's a way this division might actually be in the running against NFC South for at least when it's when's huh. I would favor them. Speak good fandall. 36. But gave you aFC South. One and a half wins more than the NFC South. Who do you take? Well, I have seven and tens all over. So I have to take I may have 28 for a half. What would be the number of three and a half 36 for. Yeah, that's probably not. You can do this. It's available on field. You can take divisions. And they there are odds available right now division matchups. But not spreads, but not spreads. That's right. You can get an implied probability out of it.

1:31:50I love it. I had Hank to. I had Hank to what a scandal. The Browns plus 200 gets that later. You did the head. Yeah, for more. Yeah. Oh, interesting. Yeah. I just like to add two to one. That's fun. They probably push. Yeah. All right. And a this our last one, I think if you asked Hank is let away in cuffs. Thanks. This is a rest of life. AFC, AFC West Denver Broncos. Over nine and a half. They won 11 games last year. Nine and a half this year. Division two to one. Playoffs minus 148. 12 plus one's plus 250. What if this was actually the best AFC team last year? You have two teams that are probably spent the whole off season going. We should have been in the Super Bowl. I think this one. Maybe Buffalo. I don't know if Buffalo, Buffalo fired their coach immediately, but I definitely Houston and Denver were both like how the fuck did we not make the Super Bowl?

1:32:51I still don't know what happened to Bonix. Was it the last play of the game? In the locker room? It really was nice. Didn't we even say anything? Really was nuts. So what are your thoughts this year? Denver was very kind to us last year. There were futures was one of the big hits last year. But it was a down year for the division in terms of, you know, my homes out there. They had two score, one score wins against the chiefs. Chargers got decimated. Yeah, Chargers decimated the Raiders with the Raiders. This team, I don't know really what to do with them because I think they're very good. I kind of liking them to the Bears. I know you love, but it's the same sort of one score lock, you know, turn over lock 11 and two in one score games, one in six in 2024. They trailed in 15 games. They won 14 games and trailed in 15. Now, I don't want to kill Bonix for being a club having that clutch gene because that's all that means he trailed and they brought him back. We watched a giant game together. That was insane. I would normally sign up for a five game decrease.

1:33:53I mean, I wouldn't sign up, but their first six laughably difficult. KC, Jacksonville, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, Seahawks. I won't say which is home, which is a way. I think that's three and three at best. But they're playing the chiefs on a Monday night in KC. Yeah. When first of all is my homes is like, no, I'm feeling good. Like it's his first game. It's be weird emotion there. I don't know. If I'm playing at Canciddy, that's the game I want to play week one. Really? I want to come right at them before my homes is settled and he's back to himself. I don't even know who their receivers are. Yeah. The defense, I think, is a shade below Houston. And that's what's going to keep them in games. Like Vance Joseph, they have 68 and 63 sacks over the last two years. I have more stuff for you than everything you laid out. I mean, their defense is really good. It's that top three, but it's probably top six. They had the best offensive line in either conference. Yeah. I got them seven points for the offensive line. A little give up sucks. Traded for Waddle. They have two receivers that I gave two points each to Waddle and Sutton.

1:34:56And Waddle, I think, will really help Bo Nex. And then they have Sean Payton who's one of the six best coaches in the week. So I can block. I can defend and I have a really good coaching staff. I'm not scared about the schedule. Week 10 through 15 are pretty easy. Buy week Raiders, Ed Steelers, Dolphins, Ed Jets at Raiders. And then they get the chargers the last week. I'm, I'm, you're going over. I mean, that's what I'm not only going over. I'm 11 and six and an overlock. This is one of my locks. I'm in on Denver. Wow. I don't understand why there's just too much of a foundation here. Like we talk about like Cincinnati, like one injury that think can fall apart. This team has like things can happen and they'll still be okay. And things happen last year and they were okay, but they'd really happen. I mean, it's a little bit of a window team too. They're in a little bit of a somewhere spot with the Pats, where it's Nick's on a rookie deal. Right. Where you were able to spend this money all these different ways. I really like RJ Harvey. I thought he had real moments last year.

1:35:58I want to see more from him. Waddle's a good pick up. He throws short. Anything like at the line of scrimmage stuff. He's going to make a big play out of our fantasy guys. We're really bullish on Waddle. Like they were just like this guy talk about bad quarterbacks. You know, he's put a big stat slash chair with just absolute crap. So I mean, I, this is my favorite team in the division. And I like the division two to one odds. I already bet that I have the over like a man on this team. All right. I have nine and eight. I think that's a tough, tough for always stretch. Three and three out of six. Okay. Next team is the Kansas City Chiefs over is nine and a half division plus 175. They better division odds than the Denver Broncos. Go fucking figure that one minus 174 for the playoffs plus 146 not to make the playoffs. Under eight and half wins is plus 190 13 plus is plus 440. They were six and 11 last year. They basically flipped their secondary.

1:36:58They lost McGuffee. They drafted Delaan as, as, uh, what was he like the six pick in the draft? They moved up to get them. They drafted him in a defensive tack on an edge on the top 40 people like Sarah Sound as a Wad receiver sleeper. My homes is allegedly healthy. So when this happened to Brady, after the ACO, the O8 season, they still went 10 and six without him. Then he came back the next year and there's like this little dark run air of a 0 9 and 2010 before they rebooted and ran off the next thing. They were still good. They were like 10 and 6 1 year or the 13 to 3 the other year. They had the number one offense. I just don't see the talent with Kansas City. Like I don't feel like there's a foundation and it's weird to hear people talk about Andy Reed like, well, and they have homes and read and it's like, Reed was terrible last year. Their coaching staff was terrible.

1:38:00All the stories that came out from Kansas City was that the team was unfocused. That guys were lazy coming out of meetings and like that. It was kind of like, you know, the classic, the players were running the team and. Yeah. I don't see it. Like they sound kind of walker. Okay. Rishi Rice might not be in jail for most of the fine. Were these healthy or were sure he's good? It's a lot of like glass half full with them because they're the chiefs. I would argue this is like the rebuilding year to lead to next year. Like Kelsey, I just feel like I don't I didn't even give him points. I think it's over for him as an impact guy. And then Chris Jones is but 32 33 just feels like they're going to move into this different era. And I think they know it from the way they treated trading guys and the draft and trying to get picks. I think this is a transition year for them. I'm under. I'm under. I shouldn't say anything. I don't want to get in your way here. But no, and maybe I just have this old man approach to romanticizing the chiefs.

1:39:05I don't blame you. Oh my God. You could get them to win 10 games and you'll get that's the over. You're good with that. And I think when we give our top three or four quarterbacks, it's always still going to be my homes in there. Right. So I'm going to take the over until it gives me a reason not to put over here. Ten and seven. Yeah. For him 10 and seven. And you said what you said is true. Like he thrives when Travis Kelsey's good and fast and not lumbering and anyone who has a Travis Travis Kelsey on your fantasy team or is waiting for the towers with cut away. He knows he doesn't get that 14 yard pass until like the late. Like he's in a dollar and our league this year. Yeah. I think like my wife took him in her draft. Yes. I'm like, Oh, what is that? Then she yelled at me. She's like, Oh, we have to root for it. I'm like, yeah, I don't know. Take God out there. You screwed up. But they the NFL has a way of doing mohomes of favor. And they did it this year in their rehab bowl against phonics. It's the very last game of week one. So they gave you enough time. They gave him an easy early schedule.

1:40:06First of all, he has a buy in week five. And then what is the, what are the first three? I forgot. Now I forget. Broncos cold stuff and Raiders by. Right. So trying to buy him as much time as he needs. So maybe they're three and water or four. Now I'm not, I'm just not ready to close the book on him. I see getting the enemy back as a positive. I know people laugh at that because we're talking about the old guard and everything. And I think the Kenneth Walker signings like solid. We talk about like these. It's overbloded. If you take a Super Bowl MVP, Cowboys had one Larry Brown, right? When he was in the right place, the right time against Newell Donnell. Larry Brown was where my brand was going. I think this is like with the, you know, lacking the tight end outlet pass, I think Kenneth Walker on the screen is going to be the outlet. And it's going to help my homes. And I think it's going to make the offense good enough. It's a defense who did okay through the draft. The second year, I don't know. That's really young. That's a thing. They're going to have to. Week 12 through 17 at bills at Rams, both on Thursdays at Bengals home patriots

1:41:10on a Monday night, 49ers at chargers on a row. Right. I can't get there with it. And it's a reminder me of the early 2020s, Pats, when we were given Bella check all that respect and rope because he was Bella check. Maybe. And it's like at some point, this is you don't know any of the older coach that you answered your own question. I think the old car to lunch last year. And I think he's the most media protected QB in either conference, especially with all the shit that happens to that team off the field. That's a lot of shenanigans. The most media for the channel. The law law enforcement and yeah, but the read is like everybody's looking the other way is this it's he's going to be 70 soon. Like this is, I don't know. Now there were six and 11 at a plus 34 point differential that that thing is important. And they're. And now some stupid gains. The Jaguars game is the dumbest loss probably the year. They went from nine one score wins to one. Yeah, they're never in the middle. It's it's either like 10 10. That's the concerning thing to your point.

1:42:11You're going to ride with my homes until he proves that he shouldn't do that. Well, he did have five fifth quarter touchdown, a fourth quarter interceptions. He was six and eight. He did. And by the way, he got hurt at the closer to the end of the season. When it was already done six and eight, like they he should get a little more crap. Has feels more strongly than I do. Yeah, I'm way out on this Kansas City team. I don't, I mean, this, this is we, you have to do what you're doing, which is say priors. And that's the case for this Kansas City team. Priors aren't playing in the secondary for this team. Priors aren't this, this pass rush for the, for the chiefs has been worse year over year and they haven't done anything to improve the pass rush. So you have one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL with a pass rush. Their defense was the reason that they lost games last year. The offense was the homes had a pretty good year efficiency wise. And he was offensive land was awful. And it's, and it's not much better this year coming in below averages here. It's, it's not spags on defense pulling off, you know, it's not, it's not. I get it. But it's like my homes with coming back with an ACO and like anytime they're in a big

1:43:14game fourth quarter, he takes off, he runs, uses his legs. I'm going to do that again. If he doesn't, it's not, is he going to be more stationary? Like Brady, I didn't feel even though the stats were relatively the same. I felt like it took him two years to get the guys falling around your knees. I just don't think they go one and five in the, in the division again. So give them, if they go three and three, now they're back up to eight. I think they can get to 10. I think this is all reputation. And if we, we just argue until one of us, now we're going to go to the next team. They play a lot of good QBs to drink, may burrow, Herbert twice, Alan, staff, for the next twice, Darnell, party. Yeah. Chargers, nine and a half. I went back and forth on this one. The most of all 32 teams did it. Division plus 195. I think that's a good bet. I think Chargers and Broncos are good bets. Like you could argue bet both of those and just try to hit one and hope nobody else beats. He play half minus one 58.

1:44:15Number one seed plus 800 under seven and a half is plus three 10. Best record, 14 and one. They were 11 and six last year. Year three of Harbaugh. He wins 11 games every year. Yep. I think he's in the 10 win club, which is ultimately why I put him at 10 wins. Mikey, Mikey Mack is new DJ coming in. He's going to use some salsa and some disco. He's going to play some omarian. People like the rookie pass rusher. The bad side, they lost Jesse Menter. They already lost their center, their guards suck too. And schedule rest is all time. Weren't sharp, like had a stroke about their schedule rest. It was minus 24. It was like the highest, the worst they've ever measured for schedule rest. Yeah. I saw a lot of travel, but this team doesn't have home games. So I think they'll like, yeah, get us to the road. I don't think that's 17 road games. So the them and the Sean Watson just playing on the road all year. I, I landed at 10 and that's a slate over.

1:45:16I just couldn't pick Harbaugh for nine wins. I really worried about the middle of the airline though. Like you lose the center and their guards are both terrible and their tackles are elite. But everything in the middle is awful. And our team's just going to push through the middle out on. Where do you have? I have them at 11 and I know they're starting with this bullshit with the B. Adaz being out in the offensive line and they're like, they had the 27th best injury luck in the league. But Slater and all being back, it's all the difference when those guys are in games without those guys. It's fucking crazy. Exactly. It really is nuts. And I have to think Mike McDaniel, I really, this could be the biggest over reaction in terms of a assistant coming over a coordinator coming over. But well, that's how bad their offense was before. Yeah. Right. I like it. I like them one in 11 and I have them winning. I really want to do 11. I talked myself out of it because of the schedule rest and the center really threw me that threw me off. They're starting a rookie at center.

1:46:17Yeah, it's not strange. Is one of their starting guards. Right. It's so bad. The Pats were the Pats who didn't even have a good offensive line last year. It's like, we're going to get this guy out of here because we might be dumb enough to play him. Just wave them. Um, losing mentor worries me as well. And they have a schedule. So they go cardinals, Raiders first two weeks. Well, two and a, there you go. And then they have the next seven are just all time at bills at Seahawks, Broncos, at Chiefs, by week at Rams, Texans at Ravens. It's a fucking gauntlet. And then you got to keep your quarterback. Yeah. You know, upright that Texans game, you think the Texans are going to be going up the middle and the Chargers. 54 sacks last year, third most, very quarterback. So I just think if they could just pertain to that's the case for everything. It hampton only played in nine games. That could help them out a little bit, you know, to get a little bit of run game. I do think Herbert and May suffered from a little bit of the same problem as we got the January last year. It was like the accumulation of just getting fucking popped.

1:47:20You know, and the fact that the, the Chargers offensive line was worse than the Pats. But at some point, when you're just going back, just assuming I only have 2.3 seconds to throw. I'm about to take a giant hit. At some point as the stakes get higher and more stuff is going on and the teams get better. And you're not helping. Not only were the red zone a lot and couldn't score. And that's supposed to be where Mike McDonald's going to turn it around. I don't like camping as much as some others, but I do think having him the whole year will probably help. Mm hmm. Receivers, I don't love. They're fine. Yeah. That's a very sexy MVP pick. It's Lad McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Trey Harrison already a couple of those guys are questionable. All right. So we're both over for them. And then the last team is the Las Vegas Raiders over under five and a half wins. Five to one to make the playoffs. Fifteen one for the division. They were three and 14 last year. Eight to one if you want to go for them for worse record.

1:48:21They improved their offensive line and improved the run game and they have Mendoza lurking. Plus they have Kunkubiak. Why wouldn't we go over on this? Oh, I was going to say this is my most embarrassing pick of all picking that over. I won't do what I've done in prior years. Take them to one, get a wild card or anything that. But I do think they're going to go seven and ten I have for this team. And it doesn't have a lot to do with Mendoza. My dumb reasoning like Kubiak. There's a few years ago, but Kubiak and cousins. That was his most productive year. You had 31 touchdown passes that year. Now I can only say this with so much confidence. For a team that boasts a wide receiver room of tray Tucker Jack Beck and Malik Benson, which I think only next to the dolphins is that might be worse than the dolphins. But little Max Crosby, karma in there. They spent $308 million in free agency. That's the second most. They got Taua, Linda Brown, they got some Colton Miller, they have some good lineman in

1:49:24there. I think they're going to be competitive. Yeah. I won. I won under. I won under after all that. Yeah. I just had them in five and 12. I couldn't get there. It's safe. You know, Kubiak sure. He's going to be way better than the ghost of P Carol. Right. The franchise just seems like a mess. I don't know what's going on with them. Like the P Carol hiring was weird. They spent money, but then they also brought in the worst receivers of all time to play with Mendoza. And then they brought in cousins as a Mendoza stopgap. But Mendoza is clearly going to play by week four and have nobody to throw to and Gentie, the six pick last year was bizarre. I just think the roster is too weird for me. Can I give you my Tom Brady take care? I feel like people have to be reminded that he's part owner of this team. Right.

1:50:24It's so low on the list. And I think it's purposely. It's by design that no one remembers because he's involved in all this other crazy shit. You know, he's doing roasts. He's doing subway commercials when he hasn't had a piece of bread in 16 years. He's, you know, he's calling, he's going after whatever the fuck Paul brother. Everything's ever tight leather pant photo shoots. It's all to distract the fact that he owns the Raiders. And that's what he's staying away from. So I guess I'm saying good job by him. He's like the goat of distractions too. I can't believe he's the best defense I've heard of Brady's behavior yet. Yeah. Go throw it all out there and the broadcasting, which is his thing. Well, that was the controversy of the first part of the season, right? The broadcasting and him being the owner and, you know, was he in on Pete Carroll and pretty quickly became a parent. He was out on him. That was a big storyline. Does he ever step up and make this offense somehow respectable like him himself? Does he ever get that involved somehow?

1:51:26Does he like he cares so much? It's crazy. How old is he now? 45? You think he's late to 40? He's been there. I mean, he's asking a question about the over-under because they play the AFCs than the NFC and the US and the, uh, in this division. So what's their record in the division? One in five. I think I gave him two. This is the math that makes the most sense for what you're advocating for. I've done this. One in five or oh and six. I totally agree with this. I know where you're going. I get two wins. They always have one score games against Denver and I think they pull one in five or oh and six. Okay. Let's go one in five. All right. You want to let me go two and four, but that's fine. Those Patriots Ram Seahawks. Let's go on four for those. Now I'm at one in nine. Almost beat the Patriots on now. Now do the Niners. And the Niners are sitting there as well. I just see if you go them one in nine for those ten games, I need to go five and two in the other seven games.

1:52:26And that's why I went under Jets, Arizona, Miami. By the way, every bad other bad team you're playing, they're like holy shit. We might win this week, but the Raiders. Okay. I couldn't get that. I know. I wasn't proud of that. I didn't finish strong there, but I did have them with seven. Listen, I didn't make it a lock. I'm just, I didn't really love it either way. House, your NFC, your AC West thoughts. Yeah. I like Denver to win this division. And mainly it's because the odds are sitting there at two to one in the way. I think that Denver and the Chargers are like neck and neck. And my, the reason I went in the direction of Denver is because I match up the units. I think that Denver's defense is the best unit of those two teams doing offense defense special teams. I like the Denver defense the best out of all of them. The schedules are comparable obviously because they're in the division and the Chargers with the uncertainty that's coming into that offensive line. It's annoying. I'd really like to see this charges offense one time.

1:53:28I might have been in a bed a month ago and the Chargers for the division before the center injury in mind of it's Broncos Chargers chiefs. I'm so far out on the chiefs. I'm doing alt unders on the chiefs and then Raiders under five and a half because the math you just laid out. That's why I'm putting this. This is one of my favorite exacts Broncos Chargers chiefs Raiders. I think that's how it goes. I look forward to Zoe and Hank and a picture of them on a yacht after the Texans win the Super Bowl. And you like, oh, that's nice. Who's yacht is that? And he's like, it's mine. I took all your money out of the fan to overcome. I'm with you. I'm with you. The best. Thanks. Hey, FC locks. So you had which locks? What did I have? I have because I had Houston overnight and a half. And I'd Denver overnight and a half is my only two locks in the FC. So I did seven total. Right. I'm going Chargers over. I'm going Jets over. And that's it.

1:54:30All right. So you only had four locks. Yeah, that's it. I had for the NFC Dallas over Washington under Tampa over Atlanta under Seattle over. Right. And then you had green Bay. I green Bay over. And did I have for you had some unders? Well, a bunch of those NFC's. So many. It was so many hours ago. That's fine. Um, we're coming back probably a week from when this. There's a week from when this airs where you get to lions, but we're asking to our NFL future's draft. And that's going to be this Sunday heading into NFL season. And you guys on the ringer wise guys, you're going to finish the last two divisions. Yeah, we have two NFC. NFC, one day in Friday. Yes. Yeah. Very exciting. We need more changes picks right up to when you guys start the show and then run down. There we go. We did it, South. Yeah, maybe four hours, 32 teams. Only a couple of arguments. One dead fish. One fish to one illegal gambling story.

1:55:34Uh, we had a whole bunch of stuff. Thanks, House. My pleasure. Thanks for letting me sit in the crack chair. Thanks, Sal. Great time. Thanks, Gahau. Thanks, Eduardo. Thanks everybody at the ringer. And don't forget to come back on the BS pod and on ringer wise guys and then me and Sal, a week from now. Good job, by you. Good job. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Sal and House. Thanks to Eduardo and Gahau. As always, don't forget, new rewatchables coming tomorrow afternoon. ET time. Can't wait for that because we did a really good movie, like a really, really good one. I'll see you on this feed. Probably Tuesday might just be Thursday this week, but I think it's going to be Tuesday, Thursday this week. So I'll see you at some point this week. I don't have a feeling of sweat.

1:56:35I don't have a feeling of sweat. On the way side. Must be 21 plus in president's leg states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas star Casino or 18 plus in president DC Kentucky, or Wyoming, often required bonus issued as Nomadrawba profit boost tokens, restrictions apply, including any token expression, max wage or amount, see terms at sportsbook.fender.com. Game problem call 1-800-Gamber, or 1-800-My Reset. Call 888-797-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat, Comedicate, or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghupline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 sport and Massachusetts or call 877-8 Hope NY or text Hope NY in New York for Louisiana call 877-770-7867.