The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

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1:20Let's go. Let's go. Year 21st because we have been doing podcasts together about the NFL since the 2007 season. I did the math. That's 20 years this year. Hold on a second. We did over under the no 7 but this is our 20th season together. We brought some special guests. Fair faucet is here. We're on the people we had our first crush. I think she likes me. She is a little. Don Johnson's gonna have a couple cigarettes and then Joe House and the Craig see. Wow. Amazing. He looks so much more alive than Don and Farah. How did you get that post? I wore my goat hat because I'm holding on. It's a Joe House poster to be here with the goats. The sun johns are gonna be upset when we take the dolphins under two and a half ones. I think it's gonna be upset. Joe House is going to chime in after every division and then also be tie breaker for us

2:23every once in a while. All right. We don't want to mess with the format too much but that house is here. We're doing a big ringer fantasy football draft tomorrow. Fences are to quit the draft five times but we're doing that live on Netflix tomorrow. This is a two-part podcast. This is the NFC win total over unders and then that's gonna be live on Netflix and then NFC will be running on Sunday. We're doing it all once today and this is one of my favorite days of the year. We have some redemption stuff, so I don't need to have us did that well last year. No, I know. I'm off year for us. Lot of red markings there. What happened? Because the higher end stuff, I feel like I did well and it was like the middle class the lower one. This is the best day of the year because we're gonna go 32 and oh after today and then week one when Cincinnati actually loses the whole first month. I'm like, oh, what the hell happened. So big picture. Everyone has too much information now. This is the hardest run. You guys have been doing that in a ringer game like show, division by division. You've done a great job of not tipping your hand. Thank you. You and I the whole summer.

3:25Really the first year we've really tried to not tell each other what we're thinking. It's like a bride and groom aren't supposed to see each other the day of the wedding but ours is for like 60 days. House knows some of my stuff. We went over some stuff today as we digested Bianco's pizza from last night. We had a lot of pizza. You haven't been healthier. Cutting down on a, I presented my play to you. I'm like, look, look what I've turned into. I've turned into Bill Simmons. Like half the crust was left. But I was eating pizza. I'm wearing a seatbelt now. I don't know what's happening. I don't know if I believe that or not. I think that's just to get everyone off your case. No, I've been wearing it. You have? Yeah, that's how it went and how's that going? It's confining. That is true. That is the one thing they say about that. Confining. It's close to voting. Where on a plane? I only if they yell at me. Okay. I just feel like on a plane. It's nothing good to happen in either way. I agree. It's not like, oh, who wears seatbelt? God save right in the crash. Right. We're not in a submarine.

4:26Oh, forget it. Let's talk about crashes before we're about to see overrunners. So every year the cousin I, we picked the overrunner totals, which we're getting from Fandall, Fandall sports book. They're getting better and better at the juice at the totals. We're not going to do it. We'll mention it if the juice is, but we can't do anything about the juice. There's some minus 135s. There's some minus 130s. We're going to talk about some alt lines. They've given us too many options years ago. 2007. Imagine if we had alt lines like, oh, my God, we lose our minds. But now it's like, oh, this is the cheesecake factory menu. What are we going to do? Well, you get to the point. You look at it. You, you, you form the opinions on the overrunners. Mm-hmm. And I would say about third week of August, the alt lines start becoming really appealing. And I thought, even on the rearing game show, we're going to do the NFC's first. I think it was the bundle who was saying how this has a chance to be the one seed in this division because of the two weaker teams and talking one seed. That, that stuff we couldn't have bet. I don't feel like 10 years ago. One seed for your best record.

5:27One seed. Best record in the league. Oh, that's tough. Come along. Marty, lose my voice. We're only three minutes in. I'm so excited. We set the kid like the kids like, oh, summer's over. My wife's like, yeah, that's the go to school. Like get the fuck get everybody go to get out of here. I have three team teasers to lose. We have to talk football. Let's get the September. Enough of this. And now we're here. One of the wrinkled. Yeah. Both of our teams have a chance to be good. Your overrunners nine and a half, mine's 10 and a half. Both of them been thrown into arguments about who could win a conference. Your team dare I say is becoming kind of the hot, the hot popular pick. Players no one knew about emerging. Everyone's talking about that. Fix the defense. So we're going to talk about them in a second. We're going to start with the NFC use. Okay. House's division as well. Yes. Yeah. House is just sad about the Redskins now commanders. But we'll talk about that too. We're going to start Philadelphia Eagles over under 10 and a half.

6:29There's juice on the under division plus 130. Feels like that's stayed the same, but the Cowboys division odds have dropped. 19 and one for Super Bowl minus 162 for the playoffs. Under eight and a half wins. If you wanted to go for the everything goes wrong season plus 210. That's record 111. There were 11 and six last year. We have a little game we're going to play this year. We had readers suggest that we should do like a what if thing. Like basically a what if for every team. So be your best case there. You have an article in here. I meant less than. Conditiously. I want to say. I got listeners. But I want to do a what if for each team. Okay. My what if for this team. What if they don't miss a J Brown at all? That would be the big reason not to take them right. Definitely. Yeah. I'm looking at you know when your offense is comically inefficient. What do you do?

7:29You fire the OC. Yeah. And you get rid of your stud receiver. Then that should fix everything. But yeah, you're right. How what he was reading books on the sideline that didn't use him anyway. Didn't seem great for team chemistry. I found the email. It was from Joe from Charlotte. Oh no, that's Joe for Charlotte. Sean and Patrick. He said my 11 year old son Patrick and our big fans. We fake this segment at home like we're a ringer podcast. So we play what if pick a player is good or bad. I'm going to extend that out to this like what if they don't miss a J Brown. I think it's a good one. I listen, I did my talent thing with it with the Eagles. I think they have one of the five most stacked roster in the league. I don't even think it's arguable. I had six guys and their defense that got points. And five guys on their offense get points. They have a top three offensive line. They've been there. They win 10 11 games every year. And the overrunner is 10 and a half. And I just don't understand it. It seems like people are anxiously trying to push this team out of the double digit win range.

8:32And kind of ignoring how loaded the roster is. I don't do you hate the Eagles, but do you understand this? Well, I understand. I don't know why. What are you giving your offensive points based on? Because it's much different from year to year now, right? You have to take one bar. We had 2000 yards rushing. Went down to 1100. So were you going to put them right in the middle of 15? That would be a good year. Yeah. Yeah. I have him like, I mean, he's somewhere between the fifth and ninth best running back. Right. We should probably lead with the push push, which you won't hear me complain about as much this year, because they went from like 81% conversion to 64%. Hurts runs a lot less, which I'm going to talk about this a lot. With quarterbacks to turn like 28 years old, that seems like the sweet spot. They're running less. He's already running less. He averages like six, six and a half attempts. House is also running less. You're running less at a little bit. He had the runs more, but he's running less. So I don't know what where you put this offense. And McCoyleman will have to step up to replace it. We're like a receiver short of field. That's some. Yeah, exactly.

9:32I actually thought they shouldn't trade it for booty. Okay. I really liked him last year. I didn't enter. I get the paths were kind of too loaded at receiver, but that the Texans kind of stole him. He made big plays for us last year. Yeah. They feel like a receiver short. Big gotter year. I just, I love good offensive lines. They're so few of them now. Right. Like Tampa has one. They have one that, you know, Buffalo has one. And I just wonder if that's like almost a cheat code now, but they're D. Carter Davis bond greener. Yeah. Four pro. The Jean Mitchell. You know, it's on and on. It's nice. And the GM. It does, he does, you know, he picks up two guys a year that you're like, oh my god. Yeah. I'm not going to get it right now, but I feel like that offense. I don't know what they're on identity as anymore. Used to be grind and but can it be worse? They flipped the coordinator again. Like my argument would be you're kind of buying. Hi on something that everybody's kind of given up on being it, but I always felt like they went too slow.

10:32Right. Like they were almost trying to protect hurts and I just don't think they're going to do that anymore. Yeah. They play the AFC South and the NFC West in a first place schedule. They don't play a lot of good quarterbacks. They put that twice. Staten Daniels twice Stafford Caleb Darnell and. Pretty. So I have them over. I that it's a slight over. It's an 11 and six for me. Wow. But I couldn't get to seven wins when I went through it. I just think they have too much talent. I think it's just stupid. Yeah. I mean, look, they have what one of two teams to make the playoffs in each of the last five years. So that helps. I hate that they had back to back. They broke that streak of like 22 years for the NFC East. Try not to get them a third division title. I have them at nine wins. I they had they were in the four and once more games. Yeah. I think they're nine and eight. And then I'm going to take the under the adjusted under. I think you get plus one 25 for under nine and a half. If you want to do that. Oh my god. Way on. Yeah.

11:32I'm going to shove those winnings right off big thumbs. This feels personal. It is a little bit. I still do this. Still do this nonsense. I was told by many people house that there are websites that I'll do this for you. But I put the wins and laws. I'm like, Oh, okay, I gave the fillies and went over Arizona. I got to get Arizona lost. I got to that sheet. So I'm a maniac with this. But meticulously, I said nine and eight. Yeah, it's more likely to happen if you're holding the paper. That's what you need to pay for. Right. Exactly. A big thing for me. And I'm not to spoil the rest of the discussion about their vision. I think the other teams in this division other than Dallas are going to be bad. And I'm just operating like Dallas and Philly can both go for no in their divisions. Now Philly always has the weird Washington game every year. Right. Where is it every year or every year? It's pretty much every year. There's something weird. And you're like, Philly is a big favorite. You have them in a three team or two team or there's some sort of parlay. And also they're down 10, 10, 7 and the fourth quarter. You don't happen.

12:32But here's one other thing out of sell before we finish. Yeah. Well, first of all, new OC better chemistry added Jalen Phillips and Wollin. I don't know how they keep adding free ages every year. But I feel like this is like a last harass season for them. Because they have these offensive linemen that are talking about retiring. Right. This is almost definitely Lane Johnson's last year. They have the Hertz contract. They paid some guys. They have some younger guys that they hit some draft picks, but they're going to have to pay those guys too. They have the Barclay money. Like I don't think this is sustainable past this year. And I feel like during this season, if they need something, they're going to go get it. Pitch and sink game. I think a few teams in the NFC is weird to say kitchen sink for teams that have had success. But this team, the Rams and away are all in the Lions. I think they're all in like this is the window kind of closes after this. Except for the fact that you're right. They play in the NFC East, which I gave one over. And it's going to surprise you which over I gave, but it's not the same. I'm going to be a dick.

13:32Is that what you're supposed to do from the Craig chair? You said Jalen Phillips. He is now on Carolina. They added greeners. I'm a greener. Yeah. I like this though. The correction. Okay. Good. Good. I'm not that. Don't mention the folks from the house. I don't I don't appreciate it. No, I meant greener. I know. I said Jalen Phillips. You did. Phillips left. That was really good house. Thank you. I'm going to be corrected. I'm old. It's okay. So am I. Plus, House is awake in the morning. So that's one thing with House. Oh, wait. Way better in the morning. You used to. It's midday on the East Coast. That's why he's really awake. Okay. So I'm over. You're under. They play on Thanksgiving. Could swing both of these. Dallas is nine and a half. And pretty straight action. Did it start at eight and a half? Yeah. And it bumped up. Last year was the opposite. You were up one and it dropped a win. And it seemed like a red flag. Plus 175 for the division. Minus 120 for the playoffs, which I think is one of the single best bets.

14:33I just feel like they're one of the seven. Yeah. I think they're one of the best NFC teams. 12 plus wins plus 270. I would personally recommend the number one seed at 13 to one. If you're going to do the 12 plus, you really like them. Best record 16 and one. Last year there were seven, nine and one. I hate this. Well, let me ask you this first. I hate how excited everyone is. Including me. What would you consider to be right now a successful Cowboys season? This is a what if you're in mid January. No, we're not even at the what if it's doing. It's let's say it's February 15th. The season's over. Okay. What's a successful Cowboys season for you? Now, obviously you could you can't say the Super Bowl. But what's like a realistic successful season? Jerry Jones. Not a stroke. But now what's underneath? What does T. Yeah, those many. Yeah, the needs of the frid later was competitions. I think are we going to give our division picks the end of each? Yeah, I think okay. I think nine and eight and they don't embarrass themselves defensively.

15:36That's a good. That's a success. Yeah, I think so. So you haven't even moved mentally to we have to make the playoffs. I think I think that could be enough to make the playoffs in this division. I do say I am really usually you know how it is you if I fall out of favor with this team, you'll talk me back in like all right. Let's see. Let's say they beat Carolina. They beat New Orleans and like we have to go through all the schedule. Yeah. I'm usually in and out on this team four times. I'm never usually in on them in August. I like everything they did in the off season. I did too. I hate saying it. I'd literally like every move. George Pickens was going to be a headache. They locked him up franchise tag them with a smile, right? Um, Javante Williams, a miracle thousand yard brush your last year for them. Good job. They got him defensively. I love it. Malchai Lawrence, Caleb Downs is looking like the best. The edge Russia from Michigan, the third rounder. Everyone loves him. Caleb Downs was the most predictable. Everybody going nuts about him in August. Yeah. You knew it in the draft that's like this guy's going to fall four spots too low.

16:38Yeah. And everybody's going to love him and he's going to be awesome immediately. They extend Quinn and Williams. Yeah. Uh, Jones is not going to lose this Parsons trade. He, if it's a lasting he does, you're more than making a playoff. He has to be able to say, I won this micaparcin straight. So extend Quinn and Williams, they sign Roshan Gary. They're doing a preseason. Ed Von Miller is like deep, deep, deep backup. Great. Just in case. When House's team did it. I laughed last year, but then he had like nine and a half sacks, which would have led the team. Bring him in a couple of third downs in a big game. And he's like a consultant too. Yeah. Pass a rush, uh, consultant as well. And he's like a preseason. He kicked the crap out of the defending champ Seahawks. Yeah. They literally kicked the crap out of the Saints and their joint practice. And then another joint practice with the Rams. They say at the end of it, they're like, hey, we're running wind sprints. You want to join us and they're like, uh, kids, go ahead, go ahead. You do your thing. And you like the coach too. He was good last year. I do. He's not bad. Wasn't like the easiest year last year, but, uh, it seems like the team like some and. And Eber Flues held him back a little.

17:38And defensively, they were garbage. Yeah. Has to get better. I feel like their defense has not been the same since I watched them with house and you against the packers and the playoffs in the living room. They lost their home field edge and they lost any kind of defensive, uh, semoles. But they're new defensive coordinator. He's like, he's 29 years old. I had them at my play rankings. I had them at 20 points, which isn't bad. 20 up is usually around the playoffs. Sorry. Yeah. I had the Eagles at 32, by the way. Yeah. Um, quiet drama-free cowboy season for the most part of the off season. Yeah. Like, no, you don't have some weird contract told that or Jeremy and weird, nothing like that. My what if for this team was what if this is the team. People seem to think the Bengals are going to be because I do think they're the NSC Bengals. But I think, okay, it was like, oh, the Bengals, their defense is better. Cool. Um, you made your defense better, but you have a better offensive line and just a better offense, I think a more reliable offense in general.

18:39Yeah. I don't know. I just like I really worry about the offense. I guess it is a good comparison. But when Dak plays, I think the number is like 11 plus games. They're top eight offense always. So then I'm probably scoring points. It's keeping them off the board. They're moving to a three four defense. They can move to a freaking one six. I don't give a crap. It's just something different. You got a good net rest edge. Yeah. Third. Get 12 games in a dome. The road games are rough. And you play some good defenses. You play Philly twice, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Rams, Green Bay, the Giants twice if they're going to be a good defense who knows. Yeah. I, I'm a hard over. Really? Yeah. I'm a fully erect over. Word 9 and a half. I'm from a phara here. I think I think I have them for 11 and 6. I did stare at the 12 plus wins at plus 270. I think some stuff would have to go right from a

19:39health standpoint. And you'd probably have to catch in that bad schedule like one or two of those teams in a week where one of their guys are heard or whatever. But I think it's either 11 or 12 and I, this is we're doing locks this year. I didn't tell you. What is that? Lockdown on a pick. Oh really? Yeah. We do this in NBA. We never really did this for NFL. Okay. This is my first lock over 9 and a half hours. Oh, man. This is so scary. This is just so we could yell at you. When they're one and three, he could yell at me. It's like, this is your fault. But well, they're not going to be one and three because they open with Washington. I'm not, I'm not spiteful like you. I wouldn't give your quarterback a derogatory nickname and then I thought I was really pushing it and saying on pods and probably wear a t-shirt for week one or drink maybe. Oh, I got to get that going. I just I like being right and winning money and Dallas is going to be good this year. And I think there's five teams I like in the NFC. We just did two of them. I have 9 and 8 and I have the Eagles at 9 and 8. So we won't pick our division

20:41yet, but 9 and 8. So that's an under. That's an under unfortunately. That's another better than that. That were last year. So it feels like an emotional hedge. Yeah. 7 and 10 to 9 and 8. Always a tough schedule. You know, the defense has a lot of work to do. Really a lot, you know. 511 points allowed 30 plus in eight games. Let's get that down. How did that feel like an emotional hedge to you? 1000%. Okay. This is the cousin sell under seven. His enthusiasm. Ridiculous. Full Quint and William season. You also have the Parsons not probably coming back to like week eight. And even when it comes back won't be 100%. So there'd be a lot of like, whoa. Jerry did win that trade. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Next one. The Washington C words. Uh oh. There are over seven and a half wins. Under six and a half all unfando plus 125. Under five and a half plus 220.

21:41Worst record. If you wanted to get really crazy, 15 to one. That's so mean. There are five and 12 last year. Six to one for the division. By the way, seven to one for the Super Plus 280 for the playoffs. They lost tonsil for the season. And I didn't like their offensive line and begin with. And there's been if you're actually reading like the day-to-day reports, the big guys are going nuts. Really rough stuff with the offensive line. Which normally like not everybody has a good offensive line. But their quarterback is 127 pounds. So the skinny quarterback who got hurt last year combined with nobody can block. Right. I'm out. Man. I have him over. I like him. I think we were actually sat here three in a row. We've disagreed. Yeah. A year ago we said this is the regression team. They had a ton of luck, right? The hell marry, right? The house against the bears and all that. Daniel's terrific. They're going to get injury luck. They spent a ton of money on old players last year.

22:43This should they spent the ton of money. I think top three 200 million. And it's a more balanced aged wise. They were 11 months older than the next oldest team. Which is gigantic difference. It doesn't seem like it. Offensive line. That part sucks for sure. But they had seven games with Jane Daniels. I have them at eight and nine. I think, oh, and so many, so many styles. Styles is a good pick. Right. Always a nice pick up defensively. Styles a good pick. But it also might be we couldn't, we should have taken Caleb down. Five. That's interesting. How about this? Wes Welkers. They're tight end coach. Tight end coach. I don't know why he convinced them. Plus nine rest advantage. Zero opponents coming off a buy. I see like eight wins here. Three division wins plus Indy Tennessee. In Arizona. They'll win a dumb one over Cincinnati or something. So I kind of made eight.

23:43Not only do I have the munder seven and a half. It's a lock for me. It's my second lock. You haven't got a lock yet. I didn't know you had two locks. Only the first division. Two locks out of you. I have two locks already. You can't keep it in his pants. He's only doing these. He's looking for a faucet lock. Everything. Schedules. I mean, they start out at Eagles at Cowboys, home Seahawks, and then they have to go to London and play the Colts. I don't see it at all. I was circling the Dan Quinn first coach fired. House was adamant this morning over a while. No way they'll keep them for the whole year. But I didn't think you did a good job last year either. It could be a top five for like, well, I mean so many engines. I think the fourth most injured team out there. So he's not building the roster. Like they tried to run it back after 2024. So you can't fire him for two years. They tried. They tried to run back.

24:43They tried to run back that same oldest team in the NFL. That experience veteran stuff. Of course they had injury regression. The other thing was they were horrific in terms of creating turnovers. Because all those old guys are step behind everybody. This defense is the big wild card. There's seven new stars on the defense. So the whole season will come down to whether or not the defense is different. See, has this representing because he's a DC fan. He's a wanna see like a party pooper. Yeah. There's been private conversations with how he has been this optimistic. I acknowledge. Well, the problem is tonsil. Like what a punch in the car. How about this tonsil? Yeah. What skill guys do you like on the on the commanders? I don't know. It's like terrible. 30th best receiver in the week. You didn't mind digs. They have that one as you've from Arkansas. That's good. And that was digs. Digs played 35 plays a game.

25:43He's a possession receiver. They didn't have one of those last year. It was disappeared in the playoffs. I mean, in the Superbawd. They're running back those by Bill. And the tight end coach is West Walker. You should be in on this thing. It's a great point. It's hard to have the tight end from Tennessee. How's who did you want for this? Huh? I mean, it's a super hard number to get to because the schedule was just a punch in the in the dick. You can't remember if you have overrunner. I gave it to Mark. It's on the it's on the really rare wise guy show. I bet I did the over and said David Blow, the new offensive coordinator. You remember that he's been in the big class. Yeah, we won some money. All right. I don't see it at all. The other thing I don't like is near the end of the season. They have ad Vikings, ad Jaguars. And then the Cowboys. I just think unless the Cowboys are like the one seed, like that game is going to actually mean something for the Cowboys. So for their last five or Houston, Minnesota, Jackson, Bill and Dallas, they have a stretch week eight week nine week 10 home Eagles on the Sunday night.

26:49Home Rams the next week and then at Giants on a Thursday night game. Yeah. That's three and a row. And that's like, that's the one where it's funny because I look at that 10 to 13 stretch Giants, since he Arizona, Tennessee. Like if there are anywhere in there four wins at that point, they're an over under under for you overlocked for me. So I've done two laps. No, you went on you are under I'm under Europe. That's what I said. That's what you said. Second mistake of the podcast. It's for 20. I have Netflix, you know, she pal makes mistakes all the time. Netflix is like, what's going on? Where's the true crime stuff? Well, you know, let's do it. I think it's a good one. Yeah. I think it's a good one. I think it's a good one. I think it's a good one. Let's do it. Yeah. Yeah. So that's what it's like. Yeah.

27:49That's what you said. And that's what you said. What if Jackson Dart plays eight games or less? Yeah. Well, guess what? He's going to play eight games or less. So what's your pick? Knowing that Jackson Dart will not make it to 10 games this season. Yeah, I mean, he gets hurt every other game. How would we analyze two of like three years ago? It's like, well, he's not going to make it or what, right? Right. And then we were right. He didn't make it. This will be the same thing. Yeah. And I don't know, man, maybe you should pass me on this. I should pass because I just, I just hate this team so much. But I'm going to go under. I just don't think they have offensive players who played defensive football. Like, Scataba took out like secondary guys yesterday. It's like, hey, this is an out-contact thing. And Dart can't stay on the field. He's going to the 10. He's complaining that they're attending him a tent. Like he's been to the 10, 43% of his games. Like, guess what? The league is not going to go under because of Jackson Dart. You have two concussions already that can send you to the 10. Neighbors, at least, plays like an offensive player. And he can't stay on the field.

28:50Give me an over-under for those three core offensive players playing together. I'd start on like three and a half. So, maybe Scataba and Dart, all playing a start to finish game together. Yeah. Five and a half. Oh, man. I go under. Yeah. Just go under on four and a half. Yeah. I think it's like three and a half is what I would say. I don't know. I don't know. You know, and everybody, there's a lot of pressure on us. We lose our media, sports media card. If we don't take a fourth place team to win the division, I don't think this is it at all. As you know, I love nothing more than that. Yeah. It's one, it's been really reliable over the years. And every year, there's been pretty, pretty reliable picks for that. Last year was a little tougher, but the Patriots were a great example. It was like they added Vrable. They spent some money. They finally had a good draft. It was just the easiest, the actual possible. Yeah. You can see that coming and the odds kind of affected it. Right. I just don't think there's necessarily the team this year. You're like, you're really jammed and enforcing it. I wanted it to be the Giants in April, because they,

29:51they had blue chippers on defense. They, you know, they had two picks in the top 12 and some money to spend. But we didn't talk about the biggest reason I don't think it's going to happen. I just, I'm not, I'm out on John Horbaugh. About Horbaugh. Yeah. And I think it's going to tie into what I do in the AFC too. Like, I think he ran his course there. I'm not even sure he was good to begin with. And I don't think this is like Mike Vrable going to the Pats or Jim Horbaugh going to the chargers. I don't think he's going to have an impact like that. And if anything, I think this season might expose maybe he wasn't as good as we thought because of what's happening with the Ravens and then the Giants. So they were bad in one of our games last year. Right. That famously, the Russell Wilson one they blew to the Cowboys went to overtime and everything. And then John Horbaugh is going to fix that. No one blows 10 point leads like he does in the fourth quarter. Right. So that's, that's what's going to be another. We talked about this on the fantasy pod too. It's a classic, ask the team's fans with their opinion is.

30:51Yeah. And you know, like I watch every Red Sox game. I literally since the NBA draft, I think I've seen 95% of the season. And like we have a short stop, Monasterio, who's like I'm feel good story. He's terrible defensively. And if you watch it day to day, so like there was a game, a national game, like two weeks ago, Tom Verducci was the answer. And he's the national answer, he doesn't know. He's like, Monasterio has been really good defensively on my Red Sox. They were like, oh my God. That's the worst opinion of the year. But you know, the fans know he's not watching. And if you talk to any Ravens fan, they were completely out on Harbaugh. They just thought he was bad. Yeah. The could area in the coal mine there is how bad he's been on fourth down decisions and has been going on for a while. He's in the bottom quarter of the league. And he's been overly unnecessarily conservative. And now he's paired with Matt Nagy. Right. We didn't talk about that. Matt Nagy. But you know, if you go backwards, it's probably getting fired that year when he threw

31:54Lamar and Lamar saved this job. Then gave him the second run. But I always felt like he was a little over it. I thought his last couple of years, I just don't feel like he got enough shit for everything. And it really seemed like some of the players were out on him too. So this is a, you know what? I'm being under for a minute. You're locking me in for this. You're locking me in for this. I'm nice. Yeah. I don't want to fall too far behind with the locks. The other thing is no one gave up more big plays in the giant. It's a 124 big plays. And Dexter Lawrence is productivity-tailed off a little. Yeah, like five sacks I think last year. It's because he was double-teamed more than anybody else. Yeah. They given up big plays. And the guy who was double-teamed all year is gone now. So that's it. So that's what's going to happen. Toughest road slate in the league. Rams, commanders, Texans, Eagles, Colts, Seahawks, Lions, Cowboys. That's another reason that the schedule is brutal. Rough, five and 12. And then they end the season at Cowboys' home Eagles. And I think both of those teams are going to have something to play for too. Yeah. And then the other question, we haven't talked about this yet.

32:55And it's not, it didn't apply to Washington. But as these teams get into December, if they're out of it, how do they start handling that? We don't really have tanking in the NFL, but I feel like we're going to have a form of it this year. Well, we saw it with Jackson Dart, right? Yeah. When they were out of it. And they keep them out of these meaningless games. So yeah, that's the closest you'll get to that. Or maybe you decide Jackson Dart's not sustainable as it's starting QB. We got to maybe think of another one. OK, so for the division, you have... I have two nine win teams in the Cowboys and Eagles. And Cowboys have a better plus number to win the division. So that's my team at nine and eight to take it. I have both the Cowboys and Eagles going 11 and six. So I'm going to have to recommend the division for the Cowboys. I'm leaning that way for the plus 175. Good for you. Don't get mad at me. Please. I have Cowboys overnight and half lock. And I have Washington under 7, half lock. You have Giants under 5 and half or 6, half.

33:555 and a half. What do we go with? No. It's bigger. 7 and a half. Yeah. That's a lock for you. Yeah. I'm doing a plus to just. Yeah. We're giving you 90 seconds for each division, go. I am super bullish on the Philadelphia Eagles this upcoming season. It hurt me in my heart because I have too many Eagles fans in my life. And I really detest it. But the way this division is shaking out the step backwards. Washington was poised to make a big jump forward after last season in these injuries that we're seeing offensive line and especially tonsils. Just such a gut wrench, gut punch, bummer. I think the giant gut wrench. Wow. The wrench, Dan. The Giants are going to suck. The Giants are going to suck. This is it for for Harbaugh. You know, we're. Like a P caro vagus like leaning more that way where it's like, they got a caro credibility. I love that. I love that. I love that. Yeah. And Dallas is going to be better. I haven't been exactly nine wins because the question marks whether or not that defense really will translate. But it's an Eagles division.

34:55I'm on Eagles overs and all the rest of it. Okay. I guess I guess I have to stick with Dallas for the division. Yeah. I do think the Eagles are going to be really good. Okay. That was the NFC. We're in good pace. We're taking break. We talked about Farrell. We're going to take a break. We're going to come back and we're going to do the NFC. The bill summits podcast is brought to you by Fandall for the football season begins. Every team is undefeated. That's right. Even the Jets. Every fan believes this could be the year that the team makes the playoffs. Maybe even lifts the trophy. Fandall, they're right in there with the you can better know of it. You can use your NFL futures were Ward stack for an even bigger payout. Fandall giving everyone five 50% PBTs. That's right. Five can only be used from Thursday, 827 until end of the day Monday, 831. So unlock and use them before it's too late. Take some advice from me and the cause. Check out our favorite futures picks. Get your bets in today on Fandall.

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37:00local national games. TV required terms or restrictions in embargoes apply commercial use excluded no refunds. We're just staring at fair during the break. We're a little distracted. Yeah. You can't tell if that's a shadow or possible like slight cold sore lower lip. Looks like a cold sore. Makes me like or more. And Don Johnson has gone a real for sure. Just for the next. The heat giver of that cold sore. We took a smoke break for Don and Don still just see just continue to smoke. I can't wait staring at me. NFC North. Hardest division of the eight, right? It's tough. You could really make a case for there's people making cases for the Vikings. There's a lot of people making case for the Vikings. We're going to start with the Detroit Lions though. A sexy summer team. People really excited for them. They're over under a shocking 10 and a half. I thought it was going to be down and a half. I don't think it started. I don't have for now. Yeah.

38:00Well, it was for a little while. Division's plus one 60 super boy to one playoff minus two of five. 13 plus wins plus two 70. You're better off doing best record of plus a 50. Under eight and a half wins is three to one. There's a couple of these that hit every year and we've like if you had the chiefs last year and you had them under even eight wins, that was like plus four hundred. In November. Yeah. I have two what ifs for you. You pick which one you want to answer. What if this is the Jameer Gibbs holy shit 2006 Thomas in season. What if this is the Dan Campbell farewell season and go either way. Pick one. Interesting. I think this is the do or die for the Dan Campbell kneecap fighting experiment. I really do. We talked about like two years at the NFC. I think this has to be due. I know the injury locked. It's completely opposite of what we're going to talk about with the bears because they were like 31 in injury lock 32 or 32 in fumble lock.

39:05It's all that crazy stuff and they have I'll take both at once because Gibbs should be better dropping Montgomery. Right. So should get a lot of those goal line carries. Good for you if you have the number one fantasy pick, but it's going to be a reversal fortune. Can they not be the number two injured team in the league? It doesn't that's what we have to get past. It started up bad because they lost Arnold and they have a shaky secondary to begin with which is the big fight. New offensive Quinter and hopefully better health. In my roster rankings, I had them in the 30s at 31. Their offense is fucking loaded. 31 31 points. 31 points. 31 points. Okay. Yeah. The high number of the 5 30 put goff five Gibbs three could be a four, same brown four. James and Williams was like an 1100 yard receiver last year. The poor to hopefully healthy. Their O line is above average two points for that. And then defense Hutchinson Campbell, Joseph and branch and the rub against them is well,

40:10Joseph and branching be heard to start the season. Then you look at the schedule. Saints week one at bills jets at Panthers at Cardinals by only one of those teams are going to be able to throw on them, which is the bills. I think if they get out of that four and one that over becomes more realistic. I like the bounce back. You talked about this on the NFC North pod. They're underdogs in three games. Yeah. Against the spread. They get to put the AFCs in the NFC South. NFC South really probably three bad to almost bad teams. I'm a slate over. I'm 11 and six. Okay. And I know it's popular. I know it's a sexy pick, but I think the schedule they get to play shock, Gino, Bryce, Busset, Willis, Panix or Tua, Kim Ward, who's been a disaster in the preseason. Kyla Murray, Jackson, Dark or wherever his backup is. Wow. And you put it that way. It's interesting.

41:10I mean, because I think they're going to be a good team, but going to win 10 games, which puts them under, right? Yeah. 10 and seven for me. It's a tough one. The only thing I disagree with you saying is like in a above average offensive line, they couldn't protect off. They were like 31st century. They had injuries last year. They had injuries a little better than they're still they're moving penny stool to the left side. Miller, their first run picks going to be on the right side. So they've at least spent money and assets trying to fix it. And last year they couldn't. Exactly. So they could get off to a strong start. You said it jets Caroline, Arizona, New Orleans and four of the first five. We could be looking at like a five and all lions team and then saying, oh my God, why didn't we dump more? The problem is they always lose one of those dumbass games like on the road. They'll have like 17 points with four minutes left against like Caroline. And it's like, what the hell's going on here? I have Gibbs two plus touchdowns in this game. And it's not even close. One of the reasons I really like the over because I do think they'll go form one or five and no, whatever. So now, yeah, that becomes easier. If I have to get to 11 wins, now I only need seven months ago. You can also really zag against this at the end of the year because week 17 week 18 is

42:12Bears Packers, both road games. So if they're 10 and five or nine and six, I feel like you can get out of that or you can head shows games. Right. But I think they're, I just think they're going to be good. I think they have too much talent. Whether or not this is kind of the maker break down Campbell season. I think they have one more in them. Usually these windows are four, right? They had two years ago was like, they're big. They almost made it. But this feels like a four year window to me and Gibbs is spectacular. I mean, they have the skill positions when you compare them. So they're teams we talked about like they have, well, a top five wide receiver. They probably have the best running back. They have one of the four best tight ends. And they have a quarterback who every year throws for 4,500 yards for tech off and they should be fine. And I think too much is made of, oh, Ben Johnson left and this offense can't do it. Well, they were plus 66 point differential for a four place team. That's insanity. And they beat Ben Johnson twice.

43:13So they'll be okay. How's you? Are you pro or I'm very pro on Detroit. They went nine and eight last season with all of that injury. Everything that run they went nine and eight. And they had a top 10-ish difficulty in terms of schedule. This schedule is the thing that sets it up for me. You mentioned the division that could, if they can go three and three in their own division, you can go through that schedule and find the eight wins to get you to 11. So that's a good over for me. A lot of indoor games too. Miami's their outdoor game until like the bears in January. Like that's their only outdoor game. So I would have locked it, but I do wonder with the injury, Juju with them makes me nervous. It just seems like they've had bad luck now for a couple of years here. Packers over nine and a half division plus 260. Super Bowl 22 to one playoff. So bad as even as we get here, they're minus 160 to make it minus one or two not to make it. 12 plus wins plus 270. Under seven half wins is plus 260. There's a couple of these, a couple of the odd unders for this division.

44:16If you figure all four of these teams can't be good. Who's going to have like the year from now or whatever? This is a seven and 10 win candidate. There were 97 and one last year. Little fluky because they knew they were in the playoffs with two games to go. Yeah. My would have for them is they lost their last five games last year post-Parson's injury, right? Right. He's not coming back to week nine. What if that's just two they are of 500 team? Yeah. I think there could be 500 to again. I mean, I like to say a lot. A lot more than. Yeah. We kill a floor and he's killed us on three team teasers and parlay's and everything. So he's like, I've killed you too. Yeah, we've killed you. I feel like to blow those bears games that second one, that was like England, Argentina. Like they just played on their heels. Like that's that's perplexing if you go back and watch that game. You had the conversation with Meena. Jordan love. I think a lot better. Not just statistically when you look and I feel like they had seven of the same receivers

45:18and they got like five of them. It became too confusing between the wicks and the dobs and now so they settled on Jaden Reed and Justin Watson. And those guys of course have to stay healthy. But I think that's the best of the bunch. Tucker craft. So you think they needed out. Yeah, I think you just got to distracting. I don't know. I don't know. We've had seven swing men. Oh, here we go. Christian Watson. Christian Watson. I know. Josh, that's what you're good. Thank you. I didn't know that. Yeah. I know. So you think they picked the best three because I would argue dobs is the most reliable of all the guys that I just don't trust Christian Watson. You know why? Because they've had them in fantasy. I know. So you right. And guess what? The red flag is next to him by week three or he's out or he's coming back. The challenge flags or the red flag every flag. Every flag's next to him. Yeah. Listen, when the ball's in the air and he gets separation, there's probably no one better, right? I mean, Tyrie Kills gone. So Christian Watson, I got that right, right? Is the one. I don't know. They might not even be the best too. I just think it got cluttered with all having like five different options.

46:20And now he could, he could zone in. So they're only down to Watson, Reed and Golden, who I had last year on both fantasy teams. So they'd never, ever threw to, um, Ganon's the DC, which I liked. Mm-hmm. Laflore every year is a top 10 offense. So that's a positive. I really went back and forth on this and Tucker Kraft, I love, I assume he'll be 100%. I did like a better and worse for in my notes for how I thought the team was better than last year. I thought it was worse. The worst like really made me lean under. They lost to Ab's who I thought made big catches for them. They're offensive line and they're defensive line in both trenches. They really lost like their button out below average on both sides. That's just a fact. Parsons, probably not back to a week eight, week nine range, maybe even for your Dallas game. They, not only are they only have three receivers left, it's a position they've spent a lot of assets on over the years. Yeah. Like, I think Watson was the first round pick.

47:23Golden definitely was. Um, but just in general, they're always over and over again, spending stuff, they only have three left. It's okay to have three receivers. No, I know, but I just felt like they've spent a lot of assets on it, not to mention the Parsons trade, right, which left them without a first round pick. LaFlur, even though they gave him a contract, I still feel like he's in limbo. Jacob's got in trouble had a thing in the off season, not great. Their special teams always sucks. I had them at 22 points for their roster, which usually throws me toward the playoffs, but I couldn't get there. I'm under. I'm 98. Wow. I think they're nine and seven and one last year. I think they're 98. There's a team I like more in this division than them. Okay. And I, I did not want to have three playoff teams. So they were the loser, nine and eight, but I don't feel great about it. I have them at 11 and six. I think the Jacob's thing is like a lot. The Jacobs is troubling for sure. He's going to miss time, but Martian Lynch is not a bad, Martian Lloyd before you jump in there. Martian Lynch and Martian.

48:23No, he's not going to do anything. He's decent replacement. They have Zahir Franklin. I had over 640 tackles in four years. And the funder said he couldn't cover literally anybody in the NFL in the past. The numbers are there for tackles. The, you know, the other thing is the NFL has a way of course correcting here. So they know Parsons are going to be out two months, a month and a half, whatever it is. Three out of first four Falcons, Jets and Vikings. So we could have a similar situation to the Lions, where this team is four and one. They don't have to do a lot. You know, and he was concocted that down the stretch there when they were like nine, four and one. He was concocted like the last three weeks, Jordan love. I think there's a real only two chance for this team. At Vikings week one at Jets week two, followed by a 0 and two complete panic. Should we fire the floor? Well, I'll go back to hating him if that's the chase because I'll have them the one bolt of the game. It's weird. This Vikings game in week one at Minnesota.

49:25I feel like it's going to determine the over under. They win that. I think they get to 10 if they don't win that. I'm dying to know who your team is and there's only two left in the vision. I mean, there's more. They added more in the field. Goodell. He's not but you always up to something. So you're over 11 wins to them. 11 and six are favorite in 13 games. So you've had a complicated packers relationship. What do you mean? There's been years where you've like really loved them. Oh, we bet. Last year last year. Last year last year. Yeah. During the season, they came out the way they started off the season on both sides of the ball. They were incredible. They were definitely I got some money down after they kicked Washington's ass in week two on Thursday night. They humiliated Washington. They were incredible on both sides of the ball. But the way the season ended, I feel like there's a hangover. You lose a playoff game the way that they did when you manufacture some bad god damn playoff lost the way that they did. You don't know. We'll find a way to find the coach after that. They should have. They should have. Can I give you one of my favorite theories? Sure. It's social media clip weight and happen.

50:27Can't wait for Eduardo. Put this thing on Eduardo. He's before the third city cluster theory. Me walk you into October. The packers are one in three and everybody's panicking when the bears came coming on October 11th, that feels maker break for them. Buck season about to start. Everybody's like, what the fuck did we get? This evaluation is terrible. Brewers after a great season just getting bounced. Oh, no. They didn't even make it to October. So they're like, oh my God, our brewer season's already over. And now Packers must win game. And it's just like all colliding. And maybe there's just a blizzard that day in October for the first time ever in Wisconsin. My old Kyle Drewbait chip cane, just sending me long in coherent texts about how bad it is. But I just, I think all this stuff might be interesting. Might be the badgers two and seven. All right. Badgers. Yeah, the badgers are going bad. All right. I like them.

51:27I don't know what to say. Okay. Chicago Bears over nine and a half is the over under heavy juice on the over plus one 15 on Fandall division plus three 40 Super Bowl 31 playoffs dead even basically plus one 16 for the playoffs. 12 plus ones plus 360 under seven out plus two 10. There were 11 and six last year. People are just spooching regression all over this team. Regression regression regression. No, that's it. Nobody can talk about the Bears rationally because that's impression of the regression 45 seconds. It's just regression regression regression. Here's another stat. Here's another stat that did this. There is this counter. Go ahead. I'm all in on Ben Johnson. I think he's 10 wins every year. I don't care what's going on with this team. And I look at it this way. So they go 11 and six last year, make the playoffs, have a couple miraculous Kayla moments. They shouldn't have been a playoff team last year.

52:30If they had just gone eight and nine or seven and 10, but had a couple upsets and really showed like signs and it was like, oh, this year here come the Bears. Watch out for these guys. And instead they threw everyone off the scent because they had they won like three or four weird games. I think this was supposed to be the Bears year. I'm over. I think they I think they go 10 and seven. And I'm a fan. They didn't have a couple of come back wins. They had six wins in the last two minutes where they were trailing. That should mean something. It does. It does. I don't want to get on quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Bonix who came from behind and won. That's a clutch gene that you should be very happy everyone in the Indiana area should be very happy that their team had, I'm sorry, Chicago area that has the Bears to win. Caleb Williams, almost 4,000 yards, which is on her for any Bears quarterback. House thinks he's going to go over this year, right? Let's let's let the guys guys. That's one of this big, but that is regression like no on the

53:30plus 22 turnover margin. Like that's if you look at Warren Sharp how he outlines us, no one who wins the turnover margin at the top is anywhere close in the second year. Add to it, they weren't really great in the non turnover drives. So Caleb Williams, this is nice. I appreciate his stretch routine. He doesn't get his black fingernails. Really doesn't affect them at all when he's stretching. By the way, Antonia Brown had some choice words for him today. That was usually that was tough. Usually, he's out of that Antonia. Usually holds to himself there. Yeah. I don't know. I got over an eight and a half, but under nine and a half for the Bears, have them at nine and eight. Nine and eight. Yeah. So I have Chicago in this division and you have Green Bay. It's basically where we differed. I just think that last year was year one Ben Johnson. I feel the same way about Vrable. Now you have the staff you bring it over. Everybody's kind of learned the habits from last year.

54:33I think they have a lot of skill position talent, right? My big fear, if you're going to pick them apart, I mean, the regression rate obviously is a nightmare. But the left tackle, they have the worst left tackle in the week. Yeah. The defense is a little sketchy, but I do think they can win some shoe dots. I had their roster at 24 points. I think Johnson's a top five QB. They had that net rest rank. Their number one, their plus 15. It's the second highest for anything since 1990. Put a new year here or Warren Scherke. We called it that Schedur Sanders 15 minutes Adelaide interview was basically Frost Nixon. Was we still enough of the stats? We should get a shot. No, we love Warren Scherke. We love Scherke. At Vikings week 18. It's interesting. They go Packers Christmas, but that's home. Lions home at Vikings week 18. And that's probably going to decide this, but that's a lot. I'm zagging the other way against all the regression crap.

55:33And I think the bears are going to be, I think their offense is going to be top seven, top eight. Wow. I think they have an awesome coach. And I just not very much. Do you do more, Mike? Do you do more, Mike? I mean, they could. Major of that, DJ Moore was a driving to the airport. He was a driver. The entire fan base was ready to drive him to the airport. And I loved, I thought loved one came on. Crafted that ground in the first eight games of the year, first four or whatever. And then loved one down the stretch. He looked like he was the best height in the league. I just think they have a lot of ones. I think there's guy, I think people a little bit too in love with Luther Burton, who's like going to start out questionable. Yeah, I just, you know, first place schedule now, six toughest schedule. You mentioned some of their, you know, Christmas Green Bay Thanksgiving Detroit. To me, it's like, I really feel Ben Johnson's a good coach and he's going to, they're going to get better eventually. But he locked his door at the end of that season, like, oh my God, that couldn't have gone better for me, especially with the things that I had nothing to do with. I mean, if they have 16 fumbles and lose only four of them,

56:36I get it. That's a special factor. I get it. It's a special factor. But I wonder now if we're too obsessed with all of these things and we're just turning it into baseball with like, oh, it's on basis 300 and that just means listen. I definitely, it's a pretty small, simple size for sure. 16 fumbles is not like 160. At Panthers week one, home Vikings week two, I think they're two and oh after that. And after that, I need to go eight and seven. I get 10 wins. They give the safety Kobe Bryant from Seattle, a big deal, tough, tough for Kobe. The second there is a little, this is four months for the second. Yeah, the second there was me. But they might not play somebody who throws the ball in them until week seven. I'm not locking it in, but I just think it's going to be a lot tougher. Last one's Minnesota, they're over as eight and a half plus four 30 for the division, Super Bowl 41 playoffs plus one 40. If you want to get nuts and go for them for 11 plus wins plus 240, they were 98 last year. And it's just bizarre to me that people,

57:38it seems like more people like the Vikings than the Bears. Yeah, I just think that's objectively insane. I don't get it at all. I did my player rankings. They had one guy on defense who got points being Ginkgo. One, O'Connell gets points, Jefferson. He's slightly above average offensive line, make, make it then two points there. But this all comes down to Kyla Murray and my whatever for you is, what if Kyla Murray kind of sucks? Why wouldn't he? Why the hell wouldn't he? He paid him to go away. And then it's like Kyla Murray, who knows? It's like, I thought we went through this already. He signed for $1.3 million. And afterring her employees and they had no other offers. Even kind of sucky Kyla Murray is better than what they had a quarterback last season. They had arguably the worst quarterback. Carson Wentz played professional football for his team. And for Osmer. And Maxie Brosber was out there, and Michigan here, JJ McCarthy. I know. That's the worst quarterback room. Okay, but if you put an,

58:39though you could analyze what metric you want in a quarterback. And I think his EPA is like right in the middle, like 16th or something. That's the thing. He's like an advanced, advanced stat. It's like, it's better than you think. It's like, okay, so I guess I didn't watch any card none of my whole life. So he's right in the middle for, what that's fine. He doesn't run at all. You're definitely not getting the 2021 version. Get through over the middle. Can't throw over the middle. He's not going to get the best out of Justin Jefferson if all the stats hold up. He's just a horrific fit for Justin Jefferson. And he threw in the deep ball. Downfield is 10%. He's like 31st at a 33 qualified quarterbacks and downfield. So what are you getting? You're getting a guy that hopefully won't hurt you. Even though he did hurt the Cardinals many, many times we saw last year. So can I read you some stats? Remember the 2021 playoffs when they played the Rams? That was their only playoff game. And I picked the Cardinals over the Rams. And I think they lost like 44 to 10. Monday night game. And Kyla Murray completely fell apart. Since then, next season, 3 and 8 as a starter. Year for that 3 and 5. Year for that 8 and 9.

59:40Year for that 2 and 3. He's 16 and 26 and his last 42 games. Like we have this in basketball. I'm sure the advanced stats are favorable. This is fucking Zach Levine. This is Russell Westbrook in the 2020s. This is Bradley Beale on House's crappy Wizards teams. Like I'm glad the advanced stats look good. But we all fucking watch the games. And this guy's not a winning quarterback. And you can't tell me in this division. Right. That you're going to win nine games with them. I don't believe it. I don't think their defense is good either. It's like Flores, Flores, Flores. It's like that. No, they don't have enough talent. Let's have a Flores. They lose Hargrave. They lose Jonathan Allen. Jonathan Greener gets traded. They're, you know, depending on this Kayla Banks, this defensive tackle who has like foot issues and stuff. They have a rough stretch. I penciled in Atteetroy Buffalo at Green Bay at San Francisco. That's weeks 8 through 11. And I'll think that I think we're making Max Brozmer jokes around Thanksgiving again. I honestly, it's weird because in basketball it's the opposite.

1:00:40People remember everything and hold everybody, every playoff game against everybody. And in football, we just get amnesia. Like we're just looking forward and trying to figure out stuff. And we just kind of forget what happened. Yeah. Kyle Murray, the Cardinals not only did not, they're paying them what 40 million year, 50 million year, and paid him to go away. Oh, yeah. And then it's like, oh, I don't know. Koc quarterback whisper. He's the quarterback whisper. He just had JJ McCarthy who was a complete piece of crap last year. He was terrible. He says he's elite. JJ McCarthy. I don't know if we can go by that. So you can't be the quarterback whisper. If you're last quarterback that you drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft, completely bombed. Right. That means you're, you're whispering, but nobody's listening to the words. Yeah. So I'm on your way under. Is this a lock? I'm under. I have them at seven. So that's under. Well, what's this number eight and a half? The number is eight and a half. Yeah. I am under. I'm happy to lock it down if you want me to,

1:01:42but I'm not gonna force you. But I'm wondering, there's other models out. Yeah, I don't like the stamina. Yeah. So we're both under 98 last year. Feels like they're a game where it's the only reason I'm not a lock for this is what how said? Their quarterbacks were so bad last year that even if Murray can be just not a bottom 10 quarterback, it's impressive that they have to win what? They'll ask five to go nine and eight. Like I still really don't understand. And they can do it. I mean, that Detroit game, they kicked Detroit's ass. Detroit needed that game to have any shot to make it the playoffs. So they, they play the, they play the NFC South along with everyone else in this division. And they play the AFC East. That helps. That means they get dolphins jets. Right. That means they get the three South teams. That's kind of maybe where you go with like how they could sneak to nine. It's just a great coaching performance. Yeah. Kyle Emmer's history was always re-entalked

1:02:43about this on your NFC North pod. Really good first two months of the season. Uh-huh. Falls apart. I just don't see it. I also don't think people we remember what Kyle Emmer he plays like. Right. Like they think of him as a scrambling, exciting guy. That guy's been gone for years. Yeah. That'll note that session of his life. I don't think so. They're favored in eight games. So I think they go under under that. It's a possible tank candidate too. I wanted to throw that out there. The under six and a half is plus two 90. But like if it's just not going well in November, do you just or do you throw him a car? Do you back end? Do you see we have there? We saw it last year. They won their last five games. That's how they got to nine wins. They were a tank candidate last year. It's not in the DNA. He's a sneaky first coach fire to Kevin O'Connell. I totally agree. I don't put him top three, but he could, you know, they get off to a slow start in that middle of the schedule is rough. Because he could do the whole thing of guys to keep give me these quarterbacks. Like, why don't we keep saying Darin, you fired the GM that made a lot of these decisions,

1:03:46like maybe look in the fucking mirror. All right. NFC North, you have 90 seconds house. Yeah. So this division, every team finished with a winning record last season. I think we're going to see the exact same thing this upcoming season. I'm slightly more bullish on that. You're going nine plus wins on every. Yeah. Yeah. I wonder if we get fandals to do that as a parlay. Every team in the NFC North will win nine games. I wonder what. Yeah. I'm slightly more positive on Minnesota than you guys are. The fact is what we've been talking about. There's a floor to the number of wins out of this division because of who they play. Every team should have sort of built in six wins. So when you talk about Minnesota, six wins because they get the dolphins and they get the jets and they get the NFC South. And then like a team like Minnesota, they have Washington on their schedule towards the end of the season. Like you can go through and find six wins for every one. No one in that. And then you're pushing up. So if you're starting from a six win floor, getting to nine wins is not that difficult and we have good positive cases for all of these teams in terms of the skill, even if

1:04:50you know that that bears defense, take a step back and this Vikings defense isn't going to be as good. I still think that we're going to get to nine for every one of the teams. Wow. I think this is my number one pick for a division that will have a tie that will fuck with all of this. Oh yeah. Well, they have one more. The Vikings go like 88 and one. Yeah. But they also knocked down the Packers and the Packers are 97 and one. Yeah. But yeah, I'm predicting the thing. All right. So your division winners have. Green Bay Packers. 11 and six. Wow. I'm really surprised by this. Yeah. I have the Lions at 11 and six. So you think the Packers, where were the odds on that? That is plus 260. You like for that. I have the Lions at plus 160. I can't remember a division in a while that had the favorite was plus 160. What do you mean? You guys, like those are the, that's the best odds plus 160 out of 14. You can't remember your Patriots that are for the bills even before the Patriots.

1:05:51No, I'm saying usually at least somebody is like minus 110 or plus. Oh, I said, yeah, you know what I mean? It's two. Oh, plus, yeah, it shouldn't be a plus. Yeah, we're all between like plus 116 and three to one. Okay. That's it for the NFC North. Quite a division. I think the most action packed, most arguments. I think it's the most fun to do the, do the place finishes. You can go in any direction. I would probably go Lions Bears. This is Taker's bikes would be my four. I would let you pick four division orders. I'll book them all because I think it's at that heart. Make it all your. Perfect. There you go. Okay. All right. NFC South, the Bane of our existence. Just as brought us whatever the opposite of joy is. Unhappiness, despair, disbelief, year after year and on pace again. We talked about how you could go over nine on all four NFC North teams.

1:06:52You could go under nine on all four of the NFC South teams and talk yourself into it. First one is Tampa over eight and a half plus 175 for the division plus 140 for the playoffs. 10 plus wins is plus 175 as well. 11 plus wins plus 340. Keep that in your back pocket. They were eight nine last year. Many year where I would argue most things went wrong. Baker Mayfield had seven injuries. They lost their left tackle. Wide receiver injuries across the board. Mike Evans got hurt at the worst possible time came back. It was just a mess. Defense was weird. Weird season. Felt like Bulls was going to get fired. They really collapsed. Yeah. Didn't fire Bulls. What if they fired Todd Bulls eight months ago? Would you feel better about this team? Wow. Well, can I backtrack a little? Because I have a little NFC South preamble here. Okay. Blow my, blow my wand on the whole division. First of all, it's despicable and I hate it.

1:07:53And I hate that we have to do futures for it because I don't want to have a better case in point last year. Box should have wanted division. Yeah. I don't know how they did. Carolina backed into a division title losing week 18 somehow and getting to eight nine. And then we're being bragged about how he had Carolina. But meanwhile, he had 19 other bets over the course of the year. So in laps, there's Carolina with ridiculous. This NFC South is they should call it the NFC DMV because it's it's it is the DMV. It's visiting the DMV watching these games. It's tedious. What does that do for your DMV house? It's the different DMV. Okay. Oh, yeah. No, yeah. The one that you have to wait in line, tedious, inefficient. It stinks like piss. It's this is the NFC DMV. And why do we have to knock ourselves out trying to pick a winner when they don't even want to win outside of the division? They went 35% of their games over the last five years. I saw that. And I have to, three of us have to pick a team to freaking win eight or nine or God forbid

1:08:5310 games. I have all four teams at seven and 10. And God bless me. I figured out a way and it wasn't that hard to do. I did it game by game by game. So let's talk. I mean, there is many, many reasons to not give any of these teams more than seven wins or less than five. Do you want to stop or Tampa Bay? Yeah. Let's start with Tampa. All right. I think they're, first of all, maybe I'm a little harsh on them because I did win the division four years in a row before this. And Baker had, you talked about that as injuries, bicep shoulder oblique. This is why they won't give him the extension. We were talking about it for MVP on our Sunday night pods for three weeks in a row. And then by the end of the year, he was body parts were falling off. I loved it. People kept them out of their top 12 like quarterback rankings. I said, this is despicable. What do we do? They have a new OC in Zach Robinson. That's a fifth OC in his many years. Like you said, they lose Mike Evans. I think it's a little better with Kenneth Gainwell, right? Buckierman missed some time. I still like that offense that Rubin Baines is stud for Miami's little banged up to start

1:09:58the year. They get Vita Vita Vaya who threatened to hold out their favorite in nine games, but I still give them seven wins. Like they were all in six against the AFC North under Todd Bulls. And that's you mentioned they lost Mike Evans. They're Mike Evans. Yeah. So that's I don't love the I don't love the cornerbacks on this team. And I'm not a Todd Bulls guy. But Gainwell, I thought was awesome last year for the Steelers. They're front seven. They nailed the draft. I think they if I gave points to my player rankings for drafts, Baines is like that. That was a miracle. He felt of them. They're front sevens going to be really good. Like it's going to be get after the passer. Kind of dangerous. And this this Ted Hurst they took is receiver in the draft who seems like he's actually going to play. And I like their receivers before that. I like Ted Johnson. I thought he had some moments last year like Buka who got hurt halfway through the year. But I think they have firepower over the place. I had their offensive line for six points. I had them as a top three offensive line.

1:11:00So they have that the running game with Irving and Gainwell together. There's guys I like on the defense side four guys on the defense with them. The problem is they play some good Cubis Lamar Burrow, Caleb Love, Gough, Dax, Stafford Herbert. They also play some horrible Cubis to Atlanta games for set a Cleveland game. Aaron Rogers, Bryce Young twice, Chuck twice. I'm all in. Really? Not only do I have them over over eight and a half. Don't be all in that. Plus one. Getting me over eight and a half. I'm making it a lock. Wow. I think they can go 11 and six. I have them 11 and plus wins is plus 340. I think this team is actually going to be good. I'm in on the box. I think they nailed their draft and I think they're going to be healthy and they're in shitty division. You are a glutton. I know. A lot in the punishment. I broke the news to House this morning. And guess what?

1:12:00We started debating bets. We're starting going through it. They're the best team in the division, but it doesn't mean they have to win any more than seven games because they're the toughest three hour watch and all of football. They're four and 12 in primetime games. I think they're on their bowls. They're one and nine since Baker got there. It's despicable. They're red zone defense. The red zone defense is just awful. Anyone gets to the 10. Just don't even run another play. You're in. I don't know. I think their front seven is going to be good. I think they're going to be good. Also, here's another thing. This is how much thought I've put in a Tampa. So at Bengals week one, we'll talk about Bengals and AFC, but you can probably guess I'm zagging on them. Next three games all at home in September, Browns, Vikings, Packers. Let me walk you through your memories of what happens in Florida in September. It's fucking hot. This is like Lombardio who's used to talk about this. These games and Carolina or Tampa in the first three or four weeks of the season where

1:13:02it's like 95 degrees on a Sunday or it's 80 with like a ton of humidity. The Browns, they get the last to Sean Watson game ever. That's a win. Kyler Murray the next week and then the Packers. I actually think they could be four and oh, heading into week five against your Cowboys on the Thursday night. Talk to me about December. That's when they lose their games. That's when they blow all their games. That's cool. Well, they do. And we're going to talk about the Falcons in a second. I think the Falcons are going to be bad. So that's two wins there. But I'm in. I really like this Tampa team. They bit me hard last year. I get it. I feel like night against the last. You can give yourself in. Nesia for last year. Yeah. I feel like you'd feel better about the best team. They have the best roster. They definitely are better than they were last year. Yeah. Sure. So the question for me is, is Baker, is he just the guy who gets hurt every year? Yeah. He's had a lot of injuries. He's been banged up a few different times. Who was a backup chick? Browning. Yeah. I mean, the Kansas quarterback, the J. One Daniels and so on. They have worse back.

1:14:03Everybody glosses over that. Like we just made a big deal about Tonsol and Washington. Worps was one of the best left-tactures in the week. They didn't have them last year. Saints, over seven and a half, plus 270 for the division, plus 198 if you like them for the playoffs, under five and a half wins, plus 250. There were six and 11 last year. What if they played Schuck all last season? Do they win the division? We all love Schuck. Yeah. Well, were they six and 11? You said last year? Yeah. Yeah. Could they go eight, nine to win the division? Yes. I think that's the answer. I was going to pencil them in for eight wins, but then I thought seven and ten for everyone is funnier. And also, not great off season, right? We got, you know, come hours banged up, a lavet or at least something. Well, they paid for 18N. Right. At the end, I don't know if he's a $48 million running back, but he was. But he was. Tenth in our league in fantasy points this year. Yeah. And that's not good. The wide receiver for our. So is that pick? No good. Yeah. It's so funny when they take these receivers who couldn't stay healthy in college and they

1:15:05take them eight. The states did in this case, but these guys are top ten picks and the draft guys are like, if he could stay healthy, it's like, well, we have all track record. You can't. Then he gets to the training camp. Guess what? He gets hurt. Right. Right. Was anyone shocked to see that Jordan Tyson is hurt? No. This guy, I think this can be. He was full of watch when he was on the field. Yeah. Two of those training camp things were losing my voice. I get emotional. Yeah. I'm really. It's your die. But he had like two training camp moments where he'd be like, oh my God. Whoa. Look at this guy. Got hurt. Right. I just want to say because I've no other platform to do this other than probably this podcast. I love the Sean Baylay. He was my favorite man and receiver last year. I had him in fantasy and he was like a god and then he got hurt. But he was like, I just keep an eye on him. Kent Tyson or Lava stay healthy. Is a big question mark with this team. My guess would be probably not Brandon Staley is still the DC.

1:16:06They just they have no blue chippers on Deidle. It's basically chase youngs resuscitated body and that's it. Yeah. I mean, I had 10 sacks in 12 games last year. I just the trade off of his tough for me to reconcile is number three dead cap money, which doesn't. That's really tough. Okay. First is number two, easiest casual. So and they have nine home games instead of eight. Right. So nine in the super dome. Yeah. Falcon's who they who I think are going to stink. They play. So they're at lines at Ravens first to so they're going to be going to this is we moved on to the Falcons. No, no, this is the saints. He's going to schedule. I'm Raiders week three. Falcons week four. How should we know what he's doing? I'm just giving you a say. I got you. Good. Four Falcons is the hurricane Katrina anniversary game. They're not losing that. Vikings week five at Giants week six. That just feels like three and three. Right. So at that point, the over under is seven and a half.

1:17:10Can I go five and six the rest of the way? Yeah. With the saints. Shuck worries me because of. He just took huge hits last year. He's like a little Jackson Dardy. He's just a little bit of a blue tent, but just completely fearless. I don't even know how their backup is. Yeah. I think it's I'm wonderful giving him too much credit because he went like 15 and two on teasers for us. But it's like 30th in the red zone. Oh, it's rookie. You know, it's hard. I'm changing my pick. I had them as an over eight and a half. I'm doing. No, I'm doing it. I'm doing unders. Really? I have them at seven wins exactly seven and 10. So that's under. That's a seven and 10. I can't go away. Just seven and 10. Shucks probably going to get hurt. It's the easiest thing to do. Everyone's at seven and 10. Crazy thing with the saints. Their home schedule is incredible. They only play one team with a win total forecasted to be better than eight and a half. They play, you know, Minnesota is sitting right there at eight and a half and Green Bay

1:18:10is at nine and a half. They played two or or penics twice, brisette, the Sean or Sanders dart for his backup. Kyle Murray, Cousins or Mendoza, Rogers, Embrace Young twice. No, bad. I'm changing my pick back. What? I'm going over. Oh my God. Over eight. Over eight. I'm going over. Back over. Yeah. I'm going over. I changed my pick back. If I tell you the back rules, I tell you when the backup. Sorry, you might change again. Spencer Rattler, Zach Wilson. Spencer Rattler's still there. Change back on the go back under now. Can I pick? Can I pick the seven and a half exactly? What is what is he has for seven and a half? You say there'll be a tie. Those are cow. See, this is, but this is the thing, the end of the season when we're, when it's like, we're doing the total. It's like, oh my God, I had this thing. It's over. I hate this. I almost might let you make the pick for me here. Are you over at them? How's camera remember? We haven't done, uh, we're doing a month. We have Monday. We'll do it now. Okay. I'm under. I like them.

1:19:11I'm back under seven and 10. It's just too much open question with the defense. I'm not, I'm not there with the defense. One more thing and I meant to give this to you before you went on with the fantasy fellas there. Take some hell retired. Yeah. That's a win. That's a win. Poor. That'll be the extra win. They don't. Okay. Fantasy Hall of Famer like really like I think so. Incredible. Added drop player ever. You know, more conversations about his eligibility than maybe every player. Find more fights. More fights. He swung. He swung weeks. Yeah. Playoff games that he felt like right. True fantasy Hall of Famer. Yeah. All right. Atlanta Falcons. The over under seven and a half plus two 90 for the division. Under five and a half lenses plus 220. Last year there are eight nine. My what if for you is what if this is actually somehow a worst QB situation than Cleveland?

1:20:12Wow. This is our number one worst QB situation because here's the situation to a who got paid to go away by Miami because he literally can't play football anymore. Right. Competing its Michael panics on his third torn ACL who hasn't even really started scrimmaging until this week and to a couldn't win the job. He was competing against nobody. It was like he was playing tennis against a big backboard and couldn't beat the backboard. I don't how's asked this today. Why didn't they just keep cousins who they're paying anyway? Yeah. Why not just keep cousins instead of like, oh, we can get two of four one million. Yeah, because he sucks. This is going to completely ruin them. I'll give you some met Michael panic stats. Four and eight as a starter career. 12. TD six I and T. 22 for 80 rushing might be the least athletic quarterback in the league. Right. And has a bad knee. And I die in for him to get back like defancy is like you're ready. You're ready. Can you play in crutches? That's it.

1:21:12Stofansky is basically the only thing that's good about what they did. Here's what's bad. The QB situation. They took Pearson Walker. They're two big first round picks a year ago, pass rushers. We're going to have speed on the edge. We're going to be a different Falcons team. Pearson's stupid. Done. Well, he's pierced his out for the year. Tourist ACL. Walker got suspended through week eight. Those guys are gone. They lost all the other guys that they had. They have the worst front seven in the league. They have no wide receiver pass Drake London. They're offensive line, which was always top five is now no longer top 15. I think this team's a dumpster fire. This is I have them going four and 13 this year. This is my biggest lock out of all the overunders. I falcons. I couldn't be. It's a fully erect. Wow. Another one. Sorry, fair. Forfero. I just can't believe how bad. Like I can't believe it's seven and a half. I think it should be five and a half.

1:22:13Like how do they have not don't have the worst thing in the other than the Cardinals in the NFC because it's the NFC South. They can't put anybody that low because they're these are there's wins all over the place. They could be the dumpster fire and still go three and three and the division. I agree with you. Also, their schedule is weirdly hard. Here's who they play for quarterbacks. Love Lamar, Burrow, Caleb, Purdy, Mahomes, Gough, Daniels, Baker, Twice. But the shitty defense, they're going to go to the at Steelers week one. I'm betting the Steelers now. I'm just telling you, home panthers, at Packers, at Saints, home Ravens, home Bears, home 49ers, at Bucks. And they're playing the Bengals in week nine and Madrid. They might be O and eight. Interesting. It gets easier towards the end. I think December, it's their Cleveland Washington Tampa New Orleans and Carolina. They have the division games and plus Cleveland and Washington. Week 10 chiefs. They might be only 10 heading into the by week. I think they're going to be off. Look, this is tough for Stifansky, right? Two time coach of the year. And the other thing, it's like, oh, Stifansky. Stifansky was terrible last year.

1:23:15We were complaining about him the whole year. The Browns blew these games last year. I don't think he was terrible. He was a classic. Are we sure he's good coach last year? I mean, his best win was when he was coaching from home with COVID. They beat the Steelers and the playoffs. But he also has these like Chinese toys on the top shelf that I don't think either the quarterbacks could reach with Bijon Robinson and even Kyle Pitz like broke out a little bit. Yeah. Obviously Drake London. So Kyle Pitz broke out a little bit. Just enough to get him a contract. That's right. That now he's going to go back to speak Kyle Pitz. Yeah. How's can you name a single receiver other than Drake London on the Falcons? No, because I knew Darnal Mooney was on the team for a little while, but he plays for the Giants now. Yeah. It's like Dotson or something, right? And that's Zachariah. There's a Kaius of Drake London. Just double team him. Yeah. He probably does even make it through the year. I just Zachariah ran just any Georgia receiver they like, but also here's another thing. Not only they're going to suck week three Thursday night football week four Monday night football Saints week five Sunday night football Ravens.

1:24:18Where are they giving us the Falcons that they can't? Fucking consult anybody of all that Bijon. Bijon gave us that's the most fascinating thing for fantasy. Where does Bijon go this upcoming season? Yeah. Not on my team. I agree. Not on my team. Please take number three tomorrow. You're not going to take me to the beach on a beach. Is that right? I don't want anybody in the Falcons. All right. So you just have spline seven and 10. No, it's fine. Seven seven is under, right? It's under seven and a half. So I'll go on the violent. By Han Dotson is on this team. Olameda is a case. This is the fifth string wide receivers. Yeah. All these these both of these guys they did a nice thing. They drafted the brother. The not a tarot brothers or a corner backs. This is fun. It's fun to watch. They're going to stink. I feel the strongest about this about any NFC team. Last one Carolina over six and a half division plus three 40. So if you think the NFC South is going to everybody's going to suck again. Mediz will grab the plus three 40 from Carolina plus two 45 for the playoffs. Don't do that.

1:25:18Worst record is 15 to one. Superbowl is a to do one. But what if for them? So what if they've had too many injuries already and this is shaping up as a bad juu juu season? They've already lost both tackles who I think will come back. They'd be October. They lost a third receiver. They lost an export. Oh, they paid money for and it's just it. This felt like the team when training camp starts and it's like, uh, oh, this happened. Uh, this happened. They weren't good. It's fine. You could say it. They weren't good data. What the minus 69 point differential for a division winner. By the way, what's there? Can you imagine there are division winner? Not many changes. They're all going to six and a half. It's because they were discussing. There was seven and three in one score games. They have a third toughest strength of schedule this year. They didn't know what to do with Bryce. They didn't even give him an extension or anything. Right. If anyone needed a 50 year guarantee to check out to see if he's good. And I don't think that it is. He's 31st and EPA.

1:26:19What do you need to see? Um, you know, I have them seven and 10, but I felt like they're as lucky as you could get as a team was. So, um, so I had them at seven and 10 as well because, um, I really liked the Rams playoff game they put. But that was how they had a game last year where they threw some punches. We watch out of check. These days, they threw some punches against good teams. Mm-hmm. We also, how suddenly I sat next to Jalen coaker. Yeah. The Bob Kooz at game. And he was talking about how he was really mad. He felt like they could have beaten the Rams. He wasn't like saying it. It like he was serious. Right. Um, so I'm slight over for this. You talk about three, three, we have to watch them three prime time games too. Two on the road at Filway and Akreen back. I wrote about this once back when my fingers worked like 20 years ago. The backhanded compliment scale for starting Cubes. Mm-hmm. From one to 10. One point O is shrugging helpously. I think that's Cleveland and maybe Atlanta this year.

1:27:20Right. Two point O is, I mean, he's not a train wreck or anything. Three point O is you could do worse. Four point O is you could definitely do worse. Five point O is not that he's not bad. Six point O is throws a good deep ball. We'll say that. Seven point O is say what you want about the guy, but he makes plays. Baker may feel eight point O. It's not pretty, but he's pretty effective. Number nine point O is you could make the playoffs with this guy. And 10 point O is, look, if the Ravens can win a Super Bowl Trent Delford, that, that, that, that. Hit it, Paul. My question for you is where is Bryce Young in this? Is he, is he a, you could do worse or is he you could definitely do worse? He's an 11 point O when the hell do we see Kenny pick it? I would add one to your trucking help us. Yeah, I mean, look again, the very lucky give him seven wins. Let him fight it out. We gave team it. Everyone else. I know I'm no fun with this division. I'm sorry, but you're not going to commit to me to better future on it.

1:28:23Better and worse year two of Macmillan is probably the one better. They have some, they had five guys on their defense that got points for me. Round Phillips, Orange Jackson and Morgan. They have a great punter black year. Good, pretty good special teams in general. So that feels like they'll steal winner too. I like, I wouldn't do it as a lock, but I got a lock for them. I like their, their second round pick. This guy Lee Hunter is from Texas Tech. They call him the fridge. I'm excited to see him. The fridge, the second fridge, give me the fridge. He never has an eaten today. You just been on the side of the 90 seconds on the NFC side. No, no, no, I would advise everyone. If you liked the way that these guys have been talking to get on the Fandall sports book where you can play division exact order. If you believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to finish first and the Atlanta Falcons are going to finish last, you just swapped Carolina and New Orleans in the two, three position, both ways are better than 10 to one odds. That's a nice way to make some money for America better than 10 to one Atlanta first.

1:29:26I mean, Tampa first Atlanta last bet both ways Carolina and New Orleans. I'm trying to help the American. I am sooner able to figure out the equation on the blackboard and goodwill hunting. Then to pick a one through four. And then you got to know it in such a bummer because when I do the prep and there's like, I love the worst of first is you talked about earlier. You can't force it. I tried to force it a couple times the last two pots. I'm not doing that anymore. And then the, oh, this division sucks. I'll talk myself into a team that has the worst odds and you just can't. Least wins by division. Last year the NFC east was 27 wins. That was the worst 24 AFC South 25 wins. 23 was NFC South 27 wins. And then the AFC South in 22 a 23 wins. So that's the lowest we've had. So you think 28 wins for this division. Yeah, seven and 10 across the board.

1:30:26I'll pick you want my worst to first. I'll take New Orleans to one division. That's fine. Okay. That's it. That's seven and 10. They want to have a hard, hard, hard lock on Tampa. And I think they win this easily to the point that week set week 1718. They got week 17 Rams, we K teen Saints. That might help the Saints over. Right. If Tampa is just like, ah, we're the three seed. We're not doing anything. Okay, that's it for the NFC South. We made it South. We got through it. We did it. Never again. Next year. Hey, quick, quick break for Fando. Our friends. Let's do it. NFL is so close to being back. Fando has covered all season long. They have an NFL futures reward stack. For the NFC. So back story. I tried to get our friend Christian. Happy birthday, Christian. Yeah. This weekend. Yeah. The CEO. Great job. We love him. He's been a great friend to the ringer. Love everybody of Fando. We tried to get them to do like a black Friday type thing for Friday.

1:31:29And this is so smart. I was just. We couldn't totally do it. But they're doing it anyway because they have an NFL futures reward stack. And it's for the NFC. And you can do five profit boost tokens. Where you get a 50% PBT. So like, for instance, speaking English is a nice. It's a nice. It's a nice little discount on the. Yeah, basically like if you like my Tampa case for plus one 70 or whatever they are to win the division. Put that in on the Fando with the PBT. They'll add 50% to it. Any of the stuff we've talked about so far, which will go through the locks at the end of the podcast. And they have player milestones. They have regular season wins, make miss playoffs and two wild card things. You get you're up to five player milestones. This is when you did on the NFC North pod house. The Kaleb over for passing arts. What was it like 3700? It's 35 75 and a half. I couldn't recommend that more highly.

1:32:29And as he beat that by like 400 yards. Yeah, he almost before 4000 less schedules harder. They're going to be in more games. They're going to get their defenses and is good. He's going to have to throw. I thought that was a great one. Receivers are better. Good one. Regular season wins. You can use either of the ones sound I did right maker, miss playoffs. I really like Dallas to make the plan. Thank you to two. But I would also do Tampa and then you could do whatever you want with any of the other ones. Fando is covered right now. I'll season long. Listen to all of our future picks. Make sure to get in the action yourself. The PBT five pack. Expires end of the day Monday, August 31st. See a five days house. You'll be back in DC. You can get them all off. You know, I'm going to be on all of them. A five pack. Yeah. All five five for five. Show us your five pack. That's right here after the pizza. 10 meets a five slices of Bianco. Going right into the five. Nathan once again beat you. Oh, he he's a dominant pizza consumer.

1:33:30We ordered Nathan Hubbard. Too many pizzas and Nathan always brags about how much pizza he can eat. Yeah. With good reason. There's one sad slice left after all these things. And Nathan's like, I'm done. I've tapped out. And the thing was there for five minutes. We're like, Nathan, really? This is just they're going to throw this out a long time. Yeah. And he just kind of sadly reached over and finished it off. And I got on a flight to his probably destroyed some airplane bathroom right now. The FC West. Okay. Wow. This is where there's more like it. This is good. Let's go. Come on. Good arguments here. Yeah. We're start with the LA Rams. Who are prohibitive superbow favorites plus 500. Nobody else is is lower than 10 to 1. 11 and a half wins. Minus 145. 12 and a half wins under as minus 145. So Fando has them pegged basically exactly at 12. Divisions almost even odds minus 115 playoff minus 550 plus 410.

1:34:36For the Rams not to make the playoffs house. Yeah. Do you stare at that at all? Yeah. I mean, at that price, we'll talk about the case for that best record plus 330. Under 9 and a half wins plus 360. They were 12 and 5 last year. I think they lost the five games by 11 points. They're in everything. And they're over under again. They need to get basically to 12. By what if for you? What if let's go a big picture behind the gambling? What if they don't make the Super Bowl this year? Yeah. Like is to you? Is this maker break to her diet has to be this year? I kind of think I feel like the Matt Stafford, why the hell isn't he put it a coffin debate? Like how is this not happening already? And yes, in that regard, yeah, it's got to be this year. How many years can we hear about back surgeries, spinal fusion? That sounds like an ugly term. It doesn't matter. Like they extend them for $55 million. And now they have the offensive MVP. Yeah, you got them right.

1:35:37He won it over Drake, maybe. And the defense of MVP, the Miles Garrett. Like I hate it because last six weeks, I put together 157 page document. Just to tell you that the Rams are going to be as good as everybody says. So you think they will? I do. Your last 30 years. Good. Last 30 years. Only the Patriots have been big favorites like this and actually won the Super Bowl. In 2018, every other time the team fell short. They added McDuffy and Watson. They added Garrett, obviously, and probably Aaron Donald, which I think has been overrated by everybody because if he plays, it's going to be in the digs. 30 plays a game type thing in the playoffs. It'll matter. I think more than that does during the regular season. Here's what's worse about them. Offensive line is unquestionably, I think shaky is fair, right? Depth, they don't have it. Puka had, we talked about this on the fantasy part of it on Tuesday.

1:36:39Puka had just the weirdest nine to 10 months you can have. And then was like, no, no, I'm fine. I went to rehab and then walked through a glass door at my career. It's what's been fun. I don't know what to make of what's going on with him. Stafford's 38. I did this when I when I had Palace era on two weeks ago, about 38. No, but it's basically 10 seasons that somebody's really come through. Yeah. I don't like the Australia game to start the year makes me nervous. And then they had the 13th pick in the draft and took Ty Simpson, who's not going to play. Don't love him. Special teams always bad. Always seems to cost them two games. Alleric Jackson is he going to get suspended, not suspended. That's their left tackle. I had them at 32 points for the roster. They play FC West NFC's. They have the most brutal five weeks of anyone to start the season. 49ers in Australia, giants on Monday night, aprocos at Eagles, home bills, just to kick off.

1:37:39I couldn't get to 12 wins with them. I'm under. They lose the OC, right? Michael floor. Yes. They lost him too. I just I can't. The Vantatham's going to be 34. I just as blue chippers all over the place. The one thing that screwed them was the special teams. And I feel like that's the easiest thing to fix, right? If you had one unit and they bring this guy in Bubba Ventrone, this now they're a special team scoreinator who sounds like an 80s jobber, right? It sounds like he's going to lose. The Vantron sounds like some. The throne like Tony Barbierry would bring to the draft. He might have a ventrons in town. Well, I don't want to get too excited. He might be a jobber because he was the special teams coordinator for Cleveland. Guess what place Cleveland? Yeah. Oh my god. They were special teams. Yes. I'm not going on there. They figure out this offense. Corum and Curum Williams at 2,000 yards combined in 19 touchdowns. They do the two plus tight end set better than everybody, right? I just, you know, I know five top five hardest schedule, but I don't think I can't put

1:38:40this team under 12 wins. I got him a 13 and four. Okay. You said blue chippers everywhere. I would counter and zag the other way and say it's a top heavy team with a couple guys that worry me. Adams is right at the range when Brad receivers do this. Who co we talked about? Stafford at age 38 gets bought really ball so fast. I know. It doesn't matter. I was between 11 and 12. I just I like the, I like the juice better for under unfandals plus 125 for the under 11 and a half. And I like another team more in this division is really what it came down to. Really? But this seems to me, we've seen this happen in football before when there's this much smoke being blown up the asses of a team. And one bad thing happens or somebody gets injured or they lose some game mission and lose. And that's all anyone talks about becomes the biggest story. I just feel like there's such a big spotlight on this team. I still have them in the playoffs.

1:39:41I still think they're going to be one of the seven best teams. But more than the scariest team last year, like, why aren't they the team you didn't want to play forever? Right. Even with Seattle got lucky in the in the regular season game and that could be on either way. You look at Byron Young hit. He's the other edge hit 12 and a half sacks. He had 29 quarterback hits. And now he's going to have free run at these quarterbacks with Miles Garrett. Probably would be double team. And I think the second there will be better because Miles Garrett is double team. Schedules really rough. Are they still favorite in like the division plays the AFC West and the NFC's? Right. So you get the three good AFC West teams and the Eagles and the in the Cowboys. So that could be five tough games, not to mention all the other stuff we said. That online allowed 23 sacks, I think, which is still the least. So somehow they do protect them because he gets rid of the ball. Yeah. And then there's McVeigh. The Tyson's and Pick was just so weird.

1:40:41Yeah. I'll never understand it. If you like on the one hand, you're going all in for Garrett. And then the other hand, you're like, well, we got to think about the future. You just traded all your picks for Miles Garrett. It's also totally fine to have that mindset. Why would you use a 13 pick on a guy that I've already projected to be was third round the best? I think they could have Rubin Dane. Yeah. Right. Yeah. And Stetson Bennett's a backup, by the way. If you look at the depth chart, he's number two right now. I thought that was so weird. So you're over. Okay. I'm going to I can't put this on there. Seattle Seahawks is over 10 and a half for the defending champs plus 220 for the division. Please mark that one. One of my favorite bets. I don't understand how they are two to one odds to win the division. And the Rams are dead. Even go figure playoffs minus two 15 number one seed plus 650 best record eight to one. 12 plus wins. I have embold plus one 55 13 plus wins is plus 280.

1:41:42Okay. I haven't done this the whole podcast. What are we? Our 40 hours 12 minutes. I haven't talked about the doing on Patriots yet. Oh, you did talk about the Red Sox. Yeah. And something about the Wizards. That was your first interjection. I didn't like a Patriots. We win the Super Bowl the second time. They beat the Panthers, right? Oh three. End up winning the Super Bowl. No four as well. And between 0 3 and 0 4, what happened? Everybody's like, eh, Colts, Colts, here he comes. Colts, Colts, Colts, Colts, Colts, Colts. What happened? The Pats, I think they won 21 straight over the over the two years, which was a record. They put together the back to back like 14 and 2 15 and one. I can't remember it was so long ago. That went in and put the Smackdown on the Colts again. I love that it's a very rare occasion where somebody won the Super Bowl. And it's also the nobody believes in us team. Mm. Wow. Just an amazing spot for them to be in. They win the Super Bowl. And it was like, eh, Rams, Rams, Rams, Rams.

1:42:44These guys brought everybody back. Everybody, not everybody. Well, they lost Wolland. How about the Super Bowl MVP? They lost Walker, but they drafted price from Notre Dame to be whatever. But when I did my roster, they had the most roster rankings, most points 38. I had seven guys and their defense that got points, which is by far the most. Not to mention their special teams are awesome. Dixon and Shaheed both got points for me on that. They have one of the best receivers in the league. If not the best, I think the price thing we talked about in the fantasy. I think he's going to be good. I don't think they're going to lose anything. And then McDonald was the best coach in the league last year. There's a team that should have gone 19 to know the games they lost. They easily could have won the kind of blue. And I think they're better than the Rams. I really, I've thought I felt that's the whole summer. It's not as ag. I genuinely think they're better. And I love that everybody's saying the Rams are better. I think this is perfect. I think there's a real back to backcase for them. Maybe I'm just bored with hard knocks because they put, they spend like 20 minutes on

1:43:47Sam Donald's spiral. Yeah. No, the day. And it's like, all right, enough. But my counter is how the F did this team win the Super Bowl. Sam Donald went from 12 interceptions to 14 interceptions. He was the most turned over player in the NFL last year. They're over under with seven and a half. This is remarkable what they did. Here's who has an over under seven and a half wins. The Steelers, Buck, Saints, Colts. Would you bet any of those to make it pass the division around? Like, I mean, that was one of my big best last year. We won all kinds of Seahawks futures. I just don't know, you know, that second most giveaways, first team that have zero turnovers in the playoffs, it was a miracle that they had all these giveaways. They were awesome. And then do it. I think McDonald's great. I really do. I think that's the difference. I think he's the best coach in the league. Top three off in top three defense. You could say whatever you want. You could explain it away. He is great. 15 and two on the road in the last two years. They don't do any games off. They play hard for him.

1:44:47Never real home field events. I just think it's tough to do. Are they losing Super Bowl MVP? All the quarterback coordinators left with Kubiak, which is kind of a big thing. I don't know. The Kubiak thing is the one piece that works. The biggest. Yeah. I would argue he created this template that they're going to continue to use. No, he took that with him. No, he don't. There's three starting defenders too. So here's another thing. Yeah. So they're scheduled, which is hard, but not quite as hard as you would think it would be. One of the best things that happened on the play in the Patriots in the first game. The Patriots aren't going to win that. I love the Patriots. It's not winning that game. We're not winning that game. Who cares? Super Bowl loser going back playing the Super Bowl winner. And like we're not winning that game. But later in the season, maybe we can go in there, but that's just like such a bad spot for the Pats. They play the chargers at home. They play the Cowboys. That's a Monday night at home. They play the Eagles that mid-December, right around when the Eagles start doing weird shit. And then they're at the Rams, but it's week 18.

1:45:48They might not even need the game. They might really need the game time and five are at home. So that definitely, that definitely helps some shit teams on this schedule too. But I just. So you don't think 14 to 11. Like that's why I have them. I have them 11 and six. They'll go over 10 and a half. So, right. Okay. That's an over. There you go. It's good over. I have them at 13 and four. And I like the 13 plus wins of plus 280. I like the one C to plus 650. I like, I like, I'm bullish on all these. How about I think it's going to be surprising every time they lose? Sure. What about Terri and Arnold karma? I didn't love that. I don't get it. But how it that didn't stop the chief says they had 14 weird things happen over five years. No, I get it. I just don't believe in football karma anymore because the chiefs like to fight it. Well, why is kind of the Patriots did too since we're a double murder on our team? Oh, yeah. Yeah. I said, I didn't. And we're going to see what the Ravens with the Max Crosby thing because I was ridiculous too. But why do you do why the Lions have to cut them and then another team could just get them

1:46:52and it's fun to state. There's no honor in football. Okay. The they lost their second round or but Clark who wasn't supposed to start but was like important for their backup stuff. It really if price can be 95% what Walker was and the Seahawks fans, I think all really liked Walker. But also did 100% trust him because he was never he wrote it. It's had some weird banged up in some way. Sharbin is a little hard to right. Sharbin is a little hard. So if price is a bust, I don't think he's going to be. I'm going to say House. Donald wasn't all that. It was a remarkable run but statistically it was improbable. And yet they did it. Yeah. That's the. I'm going to walk you through this really quick. There's a world where they're 10 and 0 after 10 weeks. Wow. I think you make a case. They're favored in every one of these games. Pats week one at cards at commanders. I think that's three and a.

1:47:53Chargers 49ers at home. They're going to be favoring both of those at Broncos on a Thursday night might not be favored on that. That's week six chief spares home Cardinals home at Raiders week 10 and the buy and the buy. Yeah. I think that I think they're going to be nine and one. I don't know. I haven't made it to but I think I'm taking crazy pills with the Seahawks. I their roster is so fucking loaded. And the only thing you can say is, are they one last year? They're going to it's the year after. It's like nobody's picking them or talking about them. And everyone's moved out of the Rams. I think they'd see it and notice it. Good team. We more or less agree more that's, that's an over, right? Maybe you like the Rams one. I do. There you go. See, put that on your bulletin board, Mike McDonald, cousin, Sal, year 20. San Francisco 49ers overnight and half division plus 340. I would not recommend that. Super Bowl 17 and one. 12 plus ones plus 230 playoffs minus 134. Not to make it plus 114 has under eight and half wins plus 190.

1:48:56If you're really banking on the year from hell last year, there are 12 and five and nobody understood it as it was happening. What if we already know this is the year from hell team? You got to be there from hell team last year. And that is no preseason. Let me give you some stuff. Go ahead. Cowshan and terrible car accident covered up. We still don't know what happened and got a severe concussion, right? Bad start, big little scandal. Over there. Jed York owner. See in a trailer park in Ohio. Say it would. Allegedly paying for a prostitute had that happen. Ricky Pearson, they lost for the year. George Kittle towards the killies in 2026 in January. It's just going to come back and be George Kittle again. He's in his early 30s now. Fred Warner coming off a really bad knee injury. Is it knee injury ankle? It was near thought. McCaffrey, they struck oil with him last year.

1:49:57There's a lot of advanced stats against him. They they're rolling the dice with Evans and D-Bo together. Two guys that didn't want to sign D-Bo. They're like, well, please, what do we have to do with this? We can't do this. And they have an electrical substation that might be fucking up all their players. Next thing. I'm out. Let's talk about that electrical substation. Yeah. Why can't they move? It's a practice facility. Right. Let's see what happens. Maybe everybody's wrong. But move for a year. It can't cost too much money to move this place. I'm the team out. Move the practice. Just move it. Move it to a trailer park in what whatever you have to do. Maybe that's why he was scouting the patients. That's what I would have said. If he was smart enough, I was looking at him. Ohio is not that far from San Francisco. Yeah. Short flight. Here's my counter. I think they're bulletproof with these injuries. Oh, it's very bad. It's thanks 74 player injuries before week one last year. Yeah. And they were still, they couldn't want a division. They were playing Seattle. What was the week 17? Like they were up right to one that division. So they would have been in the mix.

1:50:58It's a very weird, very weird one. I didn't listen. This is not a lock for me. I did a very tiny under at a 98. It's plus one 15 on Fando. So there's a little juice on it. But they're going to be 10 and 7 or 98. I had them in 11. I have them 11 and 6. Yeah. I did not do that. Miami, Arizona, home for Denver, I think could be three wins outside of that Rams game. They go third. They travel more than anyone else. I'll say that like 38,000 miles, which has never been seen before. I had that roster at 26 points, which says they're going to be a playoff team. But doesn't account for the fact that they're in a division with probably the two best teams in the conference. O'Lan's a little above average. Defense should be okay. Shanahan, assuming he's recovered from his Mr. car accident, is still a top five or six coach. I guess the question for me, can they be three and two after five weeks at Rams in Australia?

1:52:01Dolphins, Cardinals, Broncos, all at home. Right. At Seahawks. Feels like that should be three and two. Three and two. If you're three and two at that point, now I need to go eight and five the rest of the way to get there. I still get to play the Falcons. I get the Raiders, the Giants, I get the Cardinals in week 18. And it's home against Washington. Minnesota, Minnesota. Yeah. Wonderful games for sure. Yeah, it's, I'm probably wrong. But I just, when there's this much bad juju before we're not even too as wide for the season, what else is going to happen? And then everybody's like, struggling. Looks great. He's going to be an impact guy right away. When are rookie receivers impact guys? What does that happen? Well, would you say Tatmik Millen was a as the year went along. But it took a while. And then it was really like down the stretch. They need him like in week one to be seven catches, 100 yards. Like somebody's going to pay 20 bucks for him. You guys talk about a fantasy yesterday, before pretty quietly like top 10 whenever he's

1:53:02friends are really good. So they have like 70% pre-stab motion plays. And it's still to give Shana hand credit has not been solved by these defenses. I might change my pick. Well, you don't want to get all these top 10 wins. But we get to Arizona next and we could just bombs away on them. What do you think, Kass? Has my swing in my pick here? I like the San Francisco 49ers for 10 wins. I like them over this upcoming season. That schedule has too many built in. Them getting washed in the giants. I think I'm going to change my pick. Two Arizona's. You get a chance. And then and Shana hand always. I mean, what Shana hand did to the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. That's like a reminder. Right. You know, he can come in and scheme. I can't stand it. Max Jones won for like one and a whole strong hair. And I just can't. It's okay. 10 wins for them. We'll tee off on the Cardinals and it'll all make sense. Right. Can I figure I had to pick them for 10 wins, but not make the playoffs. Maybe I'm trying to do that.

1:54:03Hold on. Can I do that? Seven. I ran. Oh, I can do that. Okay. I then 10 wins, but miss the playoffs. Yeah, I love this. I was up to like two in the morning, the other night meticulously go on. Then you're like, uh, I'm going to change my pick here. What about you? Hey, listen, you can do it. It's America. Playoffs plus 114 to miss. So I'm going to go over, but they're 10 and 7 and they're in a tiebreaker with somebody. The tiebreaker will be with Dallas. Dallas. It's just because that's how you go. Yeah. So that they lose at Cowboys Week 10. Oh, that's going to cause them. That's the playoffs spot. There we go. Fagurd in 12 games. Shanahan's beat the hell out of Dallas. I have under a path last year. Last year, I lost something. At the money I lost last year on futures was multiple Niner's bets on the under. They went over and then the chiefs, which killed all of us. The chiefs like that talk about Netflix true crime. That could have been like the Idaho killers. The 2025 chiefs just murdering everybody who loves division.

1:55:04I will do no division parlay this year. I only made one parlay to win the. Oh, really? But you'll do this first to fourth bullshit. But that those are like big odds. I'm saying like in the past, you would yeah, you would call me like on August 20th. I'm like, hey Simmons. Doing a cousin's. What? What? I don't like this at all. Hey Simmons. If we do bills, chiefs, Rams off for the playoffs plus one 12. Who fucks us? That's what is that? That's that's you committing a brother. Breeding. Breeding. Yeah, very, very. But we would do these three teamers to make the playoffs. We're always in the chiefs. We're like, well throw them in there. They're going to make it every year for the rest of our lives. Yeah, right. And then they went six and 11. Yeah. We called it the KCD, right? Like a CD like a. You say for the future. The reason I brought that up, I think Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs is my favorite one of those. That's like plus 120 on Fando or something like that.

1:56:06Just Houston and Seattle will make the playoffs. Put your profit boost token 50% add on that. I just don't see how that gets fucked up. Like CJ Strad would really like have to turn into the Sean Watson level collapse. You have that 30 wins between those teams. Yeah, yeah, it would take a lot. Yeah, I think. House is not. Well, it's because we talked about this some on our gambling show, the direction the league is going, where defense is becoming much more sticky than year over year. And you just named two of the best defenses in the entire NFL. And that's been a recurring theme for me with these features is defenses and offensive lines. And if you have a really good version of one or both, I'm in. And in this case, Seattle has it above average offensive line. And I think the best defense in the NFC. I think Houston is the best defense. All right, last one. Arizona Cardinals. Over three and a half. These are really tough, historically, when teams are just supposed to be bad.

1:57:11Division there are 101 playoffs, they're 20 to one. If you want to bet them not to make the playoffs at 71, so don't do that. 70. So I have to borrow $7,000 from you to wear 100. I'll give it to you when you leave. All right, thank you. Worst record plus 250. Last year, there are 3 and 14. Yeah. This year, if you're picking them to go under, you're going to say they go 3 and 14 again. And my question for you is, what if they start at 11? Do you still feel good about the under three and a half? It's great because they're going to start at 11. Yeah, there's an 0 and 5 thing on Fandall. A number for that for them to start on 5. And I love that. And I can't remember. Does the team do have the bet where it's like who's going to be the last team that has a win? Yeah, can you find that for us? Yeah, House, please. That's a good one. I think that's Arizona because they go at Chargers, Seahawks, at Niners, at Giants, home lions, at Rams, Broncos, at Cowboys, at Seattle, Rams, at Chiefs. I have them one in 10. Yeah. Are they going to be getting less than seven points in any game other than the Giants game? No. The Giants will probably be like plus four and a half.

1:58:12They're not favoring any games, right? Zero games. Look, this is a stupid, stupid franchise. Not, not billionaire seeking out a hooker for $140, stupid, but I mean, to draft a running back who's already banged up with a draft cap, first round, draft capital, when you don't even have a quarterback, first of all, that running back is going to be wasted for at least two years. They ran him 14 fucking times. Awful. In the first three season game. And he looked awesome, by the way. And you don't fucking hurt. But you don't have a quarterback. You have to at least have a quarterback sign. Instead, you have Jacobi Perset, who holds this team hostage for most of the summer. He's like, hey, I'm one and 11 with you guys. You definitely need me back. You see what I could do in garbage time, right? That's why my stats aren't completely miserable. You know what it is with Perset. I can't believe it was so bad with us two years ago, but he was pretty good in garbage time. That's all it is. It's fine. They had all those games lost before he did it.

1:59:13They were all in six against this. It's a lot for you. You can't lock a three though because you have to be, you have to give them two wins that. But here's the thing. I went three and 14. I did as well. Yeah. But you're not going to lock that. Killer division. I'll lock it. Yeah. Zero games played the toughest schedule. I don't see how any of this works out for Michael Floor. Oh, and by the way, Nate Hackett, private eye is the O.C. Our guy. We should have mentioned that sooner. The love pick was just about practice. Even though I know everybody likes him, but I did. That's fine. They're like super deep at running back because they also sign Tyler out. Gear for some reason. Right. So it's like, hey, we have some awesome running backs. It's cool. Every other position is below average. Yeah. The coach didn't believe it. What was it? It was. It was. O.C. He said, yeah, he's a rookie. What do you say about love? Yeah, he's a rookie. And I'm excited to see James Conner and Al Gear compete. Like, it doesn't even get him on. I had them for roster rankings. I had them for six points.

2:00:14And McBride was three of them. Baker, I gave it to you. And I gave Marvin Harris on a one on that. It's probably him or Wilson is a one combined maybe. Right. But I just think they're going to get smoked. I mean, Sharp. Sharp did these. Oh, pretty colors. Sharp did these graphs for some of the teams. And it's the win total projections. And they're just all at the top for 11 weeks. It's the hardest schedule on the league. Yeah, because they don't have to play them. They can't play themselves. Yeah, that's why this has been a hard. I think summer to figure out all this stuff. Because sometimes the hardest schedule in the week, you want to a team like it gets give it to San Francisco. And then it's like, oh, yeah, now. Right. But they're going to go home and six again. Because they can't go home and eight. Yeah, and then the division. Yeah, I don't know what it meant. The best thing you can hope for is like Carson back steps up and looks good for next year or something.

2:01:16I'm going to make my annual plea. I'm going to be able to look at my camera for a second. But then look back at so. Then go back to your own head. Where is it? My camera's here. We're just going to get fucked three Sundays this year, where there's two games in the afternoon window, ones up low and then the others, the cardinals losing by 38 points in the second quarter. It makes me so mad. They should never... There should not be one situation this year where the cardinals are one of two games in the late window. Right. We have to at least have three. Protect us. Protect us, NFL. Don't just leave us hang in the toilet with no toilet paper with the cardinals. Wow. Just wondered, hey, can you give me some toilet paper? Right. Like, think about us. Think about the fans. Yeah, it's bear square. How about this? I'm going to use your camera too. No, use your camera. Your camera's already... I have a red background. Yeah. Goodell petition the cardinals to move to like Arkansas. So they could play the 10 AM Pacific time. Oh yeah, move to these cups. Yeah, so put them with the garbage games there.

2:02:16Can they switch with the AFC team that we like in the... Yeah, the bills. Yeah, or the bills in the West Coast. Yeah, that'd be amazing. Has 90 seconds on the NFC West. I have the Seattle Seahawks winning the division at 12 wins right behind them, the LA Rams. San Francisco at 10 wins. And Arizona to win worst record. That's the correct play for sure. It's between them and Miami. You'll be able to hedge it out at the very end. So you're going to have the tanking stuff too. Yeah. It's been like three quarterbacks I've been going to want. That's exactly right. So other than Arizona, good division, we're going to see great games in between those two teams. Those three teams. They always, you know, around Robin it between the three of them. So you're just that scared of the San Francisco bad jujuda. I mean, 10 wins. That's that's the step backwards from last season. You have more wins for the NFC North or the NFC West. I think I think I'm dead even. Although I might have added a win from a simple scourge.

2:03:16Yeah, I just got my mind. Come on. Okay. So that's a fun thing for fandals. You could do one division more than the other. West is a good question. I was trying to get them to do NFC. Like biggest. The final big it most wins in one division. Least wins in the other division. But you do you think the NFC West has the most wins? I think I did. I lost that one of 60 sheets here that I can't find. But yeah, well, I have the three double digit. Because the most wins. I had this. I had this somewhere. The most wins. I have 39 for the NFC West. Yeah, 30. So I had trouble getting a 40 wins in any division in my laying it all out. Last year, the winner was the NFC West with 41. That was the most wins. In 24, the NFC North had 45 wins. 2003, the NFC North had 43. And then in 2002, the NFC East had 43. So history tells us we're between 41 and 43 basically.

2:04:17I couldn't get to 40 anywhere. So maybe it's this one. Who knows? Okay. To recap. Let's recap the locks. Are you really in two locks? I think I had two, right? Yep. You had Arizona. Cardinals under and Giants under. Those were you too. To me, I think if we were going to do a playoff parlay, let's do a not make the playoff parlay. Every year, we do a two make the playoff parlay and then it seems like two in four. We can work on that for part two. I have Dallas overnight and half, Washington under seven and a half, Tampa over eight and half, and land under seven and a half, Seattle over 10 and a half. If I'm calling right now, that's going to be five and a half. Wow. Yeah. Okay. Fando, put that on your site. My five team parlay of win total, like over's and under. Say to my camera now. If it's not this. Bando. Okay. And we think the NFC champion is going to be the LA ramps. I have the Seattle Seahawks. I will say, I thought long and hard about picking your team,

2:05:21but I felt like you were going to walk out or not to part two. It's so funny. If I had taken Dallas, I think you would have left. I have Dallas. You motherfucker. How can you do this to be Dallas is a three seed over Seattle is my first round pick and have the Rams being the Packers and the NFC championship. The only thing we know for sure is Tampa will be the four seed ready to play their Seattle or the Rams. Tampa already is getting five points in the wild card game, even though they have the only line to have and play off line that. How's what was your favorite luck? The Atlanta. I'm so super out on Atlanta. That's it for part one, which we were happy to do live here on Netflix. On Sunday, we're going to have part two, which is going to be the AFC same format, same strategy. We're going to take a break. Maybe get some drinks. Thanks to Gihau, thanks to Eduardo, thanks to Fandall, thanks to everybody behind the scenes with the ringer, thanks to Don Johnson still smoking the same cigarette, thanks to Farah.

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