Tuesday Morning Politics: State of Iran War; Home Stretch to Midterms

0:00It's the Brian Lair show on WNMC. Good morning everyone. Hope you had a great Labor Day weekend in the sunshine if you were off. And for those of you who work this weekend who Labored on the holiday weekend that celebrates working people, right? Thank you. And I hope everyone you served at least noticed that you were working. Thank you to all the people in the hospitality and entertainment industries who worked so that everyone else could play. Thank you always to everyone in the first responder professions and the medical and other care professions that need people every single day. Thank you to all the building staff and sanitation workers and others keeping the 365 days a year infrastructure going and everyone else and all the other categories I left out a day after Labor Day. Thank you if you were working. They say Labor Day begins

1:03the sprint to the November elections every year and so it is here we are in 2026, right? In the battle for control of Congress. Almost all the primaries already in the books. Election Day is eight weeks from today. Early voting begins weeks before that. Mail in voting as well which may or may not be disrupted to any degree by the Trump executive order to the postal service that's playing out in the courts and you probably miss this even on Labor Day weekend Sunday to be precise. The Trump administration filed a request with the Supreme Court to let its restrictive mail and ballot rules take effect. Jonathan Lemire from the Atlantic has an article called The Real Reason Trump wants economic sanctions in Iran. The real reason Trump wants economic sanctions in Iran and yes Jonathan has a specific midterm theory for that which he will share with us in just a second. Here's a clue to what that is. Trump telling a reporter on Friday that he doesn't even call it a war. He calls it small

2:07potatoes. Well I do want a lot of people don't call it a war. I call it a military conflict because it's it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big thing. We did Venezuela and we did this and Venezuela we lost nobody and this we lost 18 people and in Vietnam we lost 100,000 people and in other conflicts you lost tens of thousands of people. I would say that it's intermittent you know we do intermittent strikes. Trump on Friday so let's start there with Jonathan Lemire, staff writer for the Atlantic co-host of Morning Joe on MS now and author of the book about another recent election that I'm sure even he hopes doesn't offer the chance for a sequel. The book The Big Lie, election chaos, political opportunism and the state of American politics after 2020. Jonathan for you as a sports fan I'll say happy opening day to the final innings the fourth quarter the deciding set pick your sports metaphor and thanks for helping to kick it

3:08off or tip it off with us. Well done well done I'm always happy to be here and you were right pick your sport but this is this restaurant and this is when traditionally Americans start paying attention to an election and we know of course you know some of this campaigns have as I hope that their opinions have baked in long ago but this is two months and certainly as you say Brian the Warney Ron Loon Large. The article your most recent article unless you dropped another one in the last hour and a half or so is called the real reason Trump wants economic sanctions in Iran okay Jonathan please reveal what you think that real reason is. Well first let's talk about the stated reason which is to bring Iran to the negotiating table in a real way and there's some validity to this we know that the military strikes have not worked we know that Trump is what he blosters and threatens more kinetic attacks you know Iran has learned

4:12to call those blaster and yes there has been a exchange there've been some days of possibilities relatively low-level stuff in recent weeks so if war's not working and the negotiations long ago broke down and frankly most observers believe that Iran got the better of that MOU that Miranda understanding that was tied to couple of months ago that leaves the US with one card left to play and that is economic sanctions trying to really ramp up pressure on Iran by at least in theory also targeting the countries that still do business with Iran now we'll see if it will follow through there with Russian China North Korea but that's the idea it's it's a squeeze your economy and we should know there are signs that Tehran's economy is hurting though it's unclear how much the hardliners in power really care if their people are suffering so that's the state reason but there's another reason an economic pressure campaign takes a long time and it takes a long time and

5:14it's a quiet process and the hope here is from the political arm of the Trump administration from those in the West Wing who are indeed nervous about Republican's chances in the midterms this fall they hope that the war will slip from the headlines and it will no longer be the a story on your show or mine and that Americans because they know it's so damaging to Republicans' chances now this is hardly a foolproof plan because if gas prices stay high well Americans are gonna take note of that but it goes to show that there's sort of out of good options here Republicans this fall but they hope that if they can downplay the war and we hear Trump do it all the time that the voters at least won't be thinking about it as their first concern at the going in the ballot box the clip we just played from Friday which could be taken as Trump calling the deaths of the 18 U.S. service members who've been killed in the worst small potatoes does that fit into the argument you're making about the war in the midterms it does that mean certainly I've talked to Trump

6:17age of the last couple days who brainaged at his word choice there because as you said 18 Americans have died hundreds more injured certainly an extraordinary amount of money spent munitions as well but yes you know perhaps in elegant but that is what Trump has been trying to do here now he of course can never stay on task so over the weekend he was on true social calling a war again but a number of other times he hasn't he has tried to suggest that it was a small thing he even gone so far as to post you know the casualty pounds of the various wars of the 20th and the 21st century which again seems deeply insensitive to the families of those who have been killed in this particular conflict but yeah they're trying to change the subject or we I don't think it's a coincidence that Trump is suddenly deeply focused on other things now some of that are could you be items that will not help Republicans this fall I'm thinking white house ballroom or trade war with Canada but he just look he's been trying

7:19to move back I wrote in May that he was bored with this war and now we're coming up on mid-September and he still stopped it. Board that is quite a word to use for the president's attitude toward a war that he started that's inconclusive that's hurting him politically and in which Americans among many others are getting killed. That is yeah that's the word a a a a a a a your Trump advisor used at the time and many others have since that that that that Trump is so used to being all of them to almost kind of assert his own reality to be in control of the political narrative it's one of his gifts right like him or not he's very good at setting the the the terror of a national conversation but he can't budge this one that you know the hardlineers in Tehran don't think his cues he's been unable to turn the page on this war certainly hasn't been able to win it and you know he hasn't even gotten their point where he could declare some sort of follow victory I think that

8:22might be around the corner if they can successfully really reopen the street of full news but short of that he you know he stuck and as you report to close your article Iran could play the military attack strategy during the height of the midterms campaign even if Trump doesn't initiate it you know if Trump doesn't want much actual fighting because it draws negative attention Iran could just ramp it up and force it back into the head months do you see that happening at all yet we have had the answer is yes a little bit and I think it could increase so first of all just a no-word in the element over the weekend one of Iran's main proxy groups the hoodies largely sound a sidelines during this war day this weekend lots of series of attacks on Saudi Arabia we have which opening up potentially a new front in this in this conflict we have seen you know the Iran is still very much a dirty control over the street of

9:27war moose you know and targeting tankers in the like which is then trigger at a U.S. response we have seen in the last week a few strikes from the U.S. to Iran's own ships so every time that sparks up that's a negative for President Trump and it does seem like Tehran delights in tormenting American President so that began back with Jimmy Carter so Trump is hardly unique in that regard but they they and they're sort of throwing their weight around to your little bit that even if their economy is in a tough way the the dynamics of this conflict have only enhanced Iran's stature and power in the police they're more of a dominant figure today and they work back in late February there is an argument that the White House makes and I've seen it echoed on conservative media like Fox and National Review that the U.S. is winning this war and it should be a political plus because much of Iran's military has

10:29been destroyed true and because as you quote the White House in the article they are strangling what's left of Iran's abysmal economy through sanctions and the U.S. part of closing the state of horror moose also true as far as it goes what's the counter-argument to that well first that Iran's popular programs still has not been addressed and it's noteworthy how Trump has even sort of stopped talking about that and and from large part yes you're right the U.S. is undoubtedly hurt Iran economy and destroy much of its military however U.S. intelligence believes that you know during this period of relative calm in the region Iran is being able to rebuild things they've also shifted the focus that yes some of their you know we're high price equipment's are destroyed but they now have these new drone technology and that's the picture of the war it would appear we see that in the brain rush of conflict we see in here they're using these little unmanned drones or like one guy with a rocket launcher that's all it takes or a speedboat to

11:32manage the ships in the street of war moose they have continued to read to lay minds the U.S. every so often puts out an outfit saying we've cleared all the minds well the reason why we've had that announcement several times is because Iran keeps footing in there and as long as you're there as long as the threat of them is there they're going to be some of these tanker companies they're going to be very reluctant to put their boats in the waters so is it true that more ships are getting through the street of war moose now than a month ago yes that's true but it's still well below what it was before the start of the war and let's remember before the start of the war straight of the moose was open and free for all to use and Iran is an existing that is simply not going to be the case going for they're going to charge even if even if there is a deal find that ends the conflict quote unquote they're still going to charge some sort of fees to use the straight which increases their leverage in that region. Listeners what are you watching for as the midterm elections endgame season has

12:34begun we've been talking about issues related to the war in Iran so far there are other things we're going to get to or what would you like to ask Jonathan Lemire staff writer for the Atlantic and co-host of Morning Joe 212433 WNYC 212433 9692 you can call or you can text your comment or question 212433 9692 Jonathan maybe this next question is a captain obvious question and I shouldn't even ask it but would you remind us why the midterms are important this year control of congress trump will still be president no matter what he can veto any democratic bill he does so so much of what he does by executive order regarding ice regarding tariffs regarding the war and other things where congress has been getting no say and congress was mostly gridlocked anyway even under the republicans you know in both houses because the democrats could block most republican bills in the senate with the filibuster so why does this matter a

13:39lot if you think it does I do think it matters and there are few reasons why first you're right to say that the this congress as largely abandoned its powers and just been completely compliant to whatever trump wants to do they put up no resistance at all or very limited resistance because republicans are in charge of both houses of congress let's say democrats even get one let's say and they take the house which at this moment you know we're still two months away things can change but at this moment stradges and both parties think will happen it then we'll take that if they do it's not like they can pack their own agenda but they can block more of trumps they can they can certainly at least put up some road blocks to some of the things the trump wants to do though you're right certainly a lot of what he does is by executive action anyway but there's another key part of it if you have the majority in a house of congress democrats have a house they suddenly have the power of the superior they suddenly can call in for committees and investigations into the trump

14:43administration that will be a deep annoyance to president trump and his staff they will be able to investigate claims of corruption they will to tell people to testify now that to set up a real constitutional crisis if the if the executive branch suddenly you will resolve it's will have to see how that plays out but they can absolutely be a foreign side of of trump if they take the house if they take the senate to well they have the ability to block the trump nominations whether it's a cabinet member or other high level post it requires senate confirmation the dens would be able to squash that if they so choose so there are some real reasons why it does matter for democrats to take one of both house the congress here's a text from a listener i think the implication here is kind of pro-republican the question is which party would Iran prefer when in november do you think there's an either or answer to that and are you hearing anything like that maybe more explicitly stated by the

15:46white house or republican congressional candidates like you know a run once the democrats to win so keep us in power because we're the real opposition to their menace that's it's an issue point i'll say i think you know that as you say it it's striking to me that i haven't heard that in part because i think republicans are just so weary to bring up Iran at all because it is such a political loser for them at the moment and not just because it's not going well but we shouldn't lose side of the fact that the trump never made a case for this war in the first place he never went to the american public and said this is why we should do this he never for the a coalition of the will you know you know in line up international partners to help it was just a venture with israel and and you know basically antagonizing not consulting and antagonizing so many of our other allies even those of our regional partners who you know

16:48were really really the work at all then offered taxid support during those first two weeks what it seemed to be going okay but now are deeply frustrated with what has happened because as we just discussed Iran had been in bolden but more than that their own interests have been hammered no tourism throughout that region is way down energy infrastructure you know a number of the gold states have taken significant blows no one is happy about this conflict i don't know that he was expressed a a a a preference certainly traditionally republicans are seen as more hawkish on on t-rond you know but then again the right now this seems to be an issue that they did the gop just wants to steer away from as much as they do yeah another couple of text listen to right how about how we have given china a golden opportunity to endlessly keep Iran in the fight and thus weaken the u.s so i'll take that as a rhetorical question then another one from

17:49another listener do you think there's another theater of operations that Trump might go into as a distraction from Iran to refocus the conversation well first the china point is is right and i think beyond that china also looks at this with glee when they see americans defensive munitions supplies being so dwindled because that if they decide that they want it to make a move on ty one it would become harder for the u.s to step in there as far as another theater goes it's i wouldn't let anything out i mean certainly we know that Iran happened in large part when and how it did because trump was feeling uh was riding high after the then it's wail operation not realizing the key differences um between those two countries and the scope of the operations but certainly the the administration is not really uh hiding their cards here they have suggested the kuba um could be on the horizon but they seem to be leaning towards more of a

18:54economic pressure package there as opposed to uh military campaign there's also been talk about increasing strikes in mexico to target uh partels and let's not forget it wasn't that many months ago where europe was flat out racing for the possibility of american military invasion of greenland um so yes this is this is still something with two years to go uh in power uh you know your trump is still eyeing the globe as you know in ex-american expansions in part of his legacy listener following up on the who would Iran prefer to win question listen to rights Iran picked Reagan over Carter that was in 1980 that listener writes they literally engineered for Reagan to beat Carter with the timing of the hostage release kind of changing the topic and moving on here listen to rights i don't expect a free and fair election in november trump is doing everything he can to undermine the midterms and to prevent democrats from voting does mr

19:57lamiracy anything to suggest that we can trust the electoral results and jonathan i have to say i i i'm cringing at how um how that text ended the question that they actually landed on so like yes trump is doing everything he can to undermine the midterms and to prevent democrats from voting i think we can say as a fact he's doing what he can do to prevent democrats from voting but but listen to the result in terms of that listener's mind do you see anything to suggest that we can trust the election electoral results and and so much of whatever trump is doing um is is intended to do exactly that right to so doubt in the electoral results whether or not he wins at the supreme court and mail and ballot uh ballots go as as they have in the past and things like that no you nailed it uh that that that suggested trump's already won uh it has campaigned to so

21:00to so doubt uh in these results and and i do think this is this is about to come the number one top of the conversation in this country um is that i'll come in the terms and whether americans will be able to vote and whether the results of these elections will be honored certainly we are seeing you know brine you said it the trump administration tried to put its thumb on the scale whether that's because trying to curtail mail and voting they've already had of course the the mid-cycle redistricting push we heard secretary markley mullen over the weekend float the idea that okay yeah maybe i say this will be in polling places as rumors an national guard could do the same just clearly doing the efforts put forth by this administration to discourage or prevent a people from voting and then once the election is over it stands to reason it passes prologue and we're seeing trump later groundwork already that he and his party will ask real doubt on the results if republicans lose and what happens then is an open question you would indeed

22:07have shades of the 2020 election that i crawled in my book and that will be putting us in a very dangerous place for our democracy jr. thine lamir from the elastic and mornin joe my guest i saw you on mornin joe today say that trump will be kicking off a midterms related road show why would he be doing that if his approval ratings are so low because i'll trump doesn't believe it you know if he is someone if he's either tuning off to believe it or genuinely doesn't believe it he is someone who exists in an extraordinarily small media echo chamber right now watching you know boxed news and other conservative outlets taking pronounce of sloppy a i post or fake poll handed and by a faithful white house age one in particular and right in fact there was a article this may have been by one of your colleagues in the elanica nut Shore maybe it was in another publication basically called the real natalie harps scandal and the gist was

23:08no they're not having an affair the real natalie harps scandal is that she is the gatekeeper for the media that he actually sees a lot of it and she tends to curate only things that support his world view and make it look like he's already doing a great job and has tremendous amount of public support that is absolutely true now trump is always even free natalie harps sought for good news and but she in an extreme way only delivers things that he will like uh you know and stuff that is just simply nonsensical that makes him think he is doing better than he is so he has decided that he should be the center of conversation uh this fall now one hand that's just ego because that trump always wants to be the center of conversation he's also convinced that he's the best message his good self that he's the best message for the republican party he also knows traditionally some of the trump supporters don't turn out when his name is not action on about 2018-2022

24:14i think there's real fear that's going to happen again this time around so this is prompt effort to make the election about himself thinking that therefore some of his supporters may turn out i will say that you know who doesn't like this idea most republicans because trump is so unpopular and because they feel like you know he traces different their issues that they they could win on or you know you at least give themselves a better chance but trump is ordered up bad campaigns at least the ones that he's his package of finance have to be about him he does say and we'll see if he follows through um he does say he's going to be on the road a lot that's fall campaigning for candidates we've heard that already this year and it hasn't materialized but perhaps it will in these final weeks and then there's this week which is there's first of its kind midterm conventions that literally no one asks for and no one's talking about but it's two nights in Dallas starting tomorrow trump is going to speak both nights he wants candidates to come off the campaign trail which they're doing begrudgingly to sit there cheering him on

25:17be put on camera cheering him on um and he's making this spectacle about him thinking that this will again spur republicans to victory this fall i'll note the timing here is is for to say the least this is what i mean yes this is sort of the traditional start of the campaign season but what's the one thing are fractured culture still likes to do together that's what's the nfl and this two nights of the midterm convention are opposite the first two nights of the nfl season so that was i've since been heard why have they rumbling because that's scheduling a mistake is made we only only occurred to them in recent weeks so one quick follow up on that um that i just thought of i mean you're describing a paradox right now between republican turnout being down when trump is not on the ballot versus trump being more of a liability than an asset in some races because of the war and his tariffs and inflation and other things and you mentioned this

26:18unusual republican midterms convention often we think of you know democratic and republican conventions only in the presidential election years so now they're having a republican midterms convention that's going to happen are the democrats having one too they talk about it um i don't actually now you know i'm gonna do when looking up because they i don't know if they have to side of the doon or i would think not um but i will look but this is i as i do look i will fill a lester by saying but this is something that no one thinks is a good idea um that the republican that it turns the republican one that this is going to be expensive um they're having trouble um getting people to go uh this report even from fox news over the weekend by the way the DNC opted not too i was right um because people don't want to spend the money they don't want to come to Dallas um they have busy lives it's is you know people yes people plan for these every four years presidential uh conventions i mean yes i think you you know there's a limit to how useful they

27:22actually are but it's a thing people do they're sort of accepted by tradition um this is not and this is from trying to create an event um to give himself the headlines um and he thinks will help the public is i do not think this will help the republican so i truthfully think this event is going to happen one day and be forgotten the next um and in fact the the lasting images may be republican candidates squirming on camera as they're forced to stand in a pod something the president has done that he's are unsuccessful on popular and outright lie yeah and you know the democrats uh if they were to do such a media show as the republicans are going to do as a party would have their own problems another listener text my biggest midterm question is can the democrats unite and support each other to win or are they going to blow it by fighting amongst themselves well that's it there for the moment as a rhetorical question and after the break we'll play a clip of michigan democratic us senate candidate Abdul El Sayed

28:24who actually went into the belly of the opposition media beast as the democrats see it and went on jesse water show on fox we'll play that and put it in national context not just michigan after this brine layer on wnyc little more time on this Tuesday after labor day the day often considered the beginning of the final uh stretch the home stretch there's another sports analogy you got a football one in there before a baseball one and basketball one the home stretch of the election season uh Jonathan lamire staff writer for the Atlantic and co-host of moron joe on ms now here's a clip of michigan democratic us senate candidate Abdul El Sayed who actually went into the belly of the opposition beast you might call it at least from the democrats perspective and went on jesse water show on fox we'll play that and put it in national context with john afin lamire here we go should men play as a sports you have daughters right i

29:29think that look i i played sports my whole life sports were an important part of my life i'm grateful for the opportunity to play sports and at the end of the day the decision of who gets to play what sports ought to be decided by the people who govern sports i'm running for u.s senate jesse is insane i'm out here trying to take on like the the health care crisis in big pharma and you're asking me about who gets to play what sports i don't know big thing if you've been following the news recently so don't even talk about that it's exchange you know it's not just about whatever might be controversial for some about that candidate there's a national through line and strategy that lsy ed is a democratic candidate and waters as a pro republican media figure are both displaying for their sides you think oh i definitely think a few thoughts here first of all lsy ed did get some kudos from some uh in his party for going on fox news on many democrats choose not to do that he put a judge for years now has been very successful in doing so he's figured out how to spar back and forth um and i think democrats also believe even beyond just simply you know the

30:35day-to-day political tactics it's important to speak to the other side of the country because we do live in such media silos right now so he that's a was the only good thing i will say some democrats thought lsy ed's the interview became sort of too combative and there's a lot of shouting and yelling at each other so how helpful it really was in actuality remains to be seen but your larger point Brian is a good one that right there first of all they both it's reasonable where the party's lines on this particular culture issue but more than that this is reflection of how republicans are trying to make this election about cultural issues because they don't have much else to work with uh we had a republicist judge uh joined me on on one in joh in the last week or so who flat out fed on camera on air that republicans have no story to tell they have no wins to point two um that the only signature accomplishment of the trump administration was his you know one big beautiful bill last summer and that largely just helped the rich um between the war and the tariffs and fraying alliances

31:40and the list goes on and on these are things that american american don't like about what trump and republicans uh have done in the last uh nearly nearly two years so they're falling back on certain hot button cultural issues that have proven success on the path and certainly we know that a strong closing issue for trump in 2024 against vice president herif was about transgender issues particularly with comes to sports uh and i think we're seeing conservatives trying to recycle that playbook this time around listener regarding the democrats asks please ask your guest about hakeem jeffries decision to elevate josh gothimer on a run hawk and a staunch pro israel congress member to a key position isn't leadership showing a contempt for their base in action how are the 80 percent of democrats who think israel's actions have been genocidal supposed to feel and whether that 80 percent figure is accurate or not um um i'm not familiar with what jeffries may have just

32:45done with respect to josh gothimer maybe you are maybe related um jeffries also didn't you just recently meet with jared kushner and there's been some democratic blowback on that like why are you giving jared kushner any kind of credibility by even meeting with him yeah he's death that's a collotic heat for that i think jeffries is trying to just look we do have to try to govern we will have to reach across the aisle there is a scenario where as we described if you know where democrats take the house in for two years and we have to speak your deffries and it'll have to deal with president trump and president trump's top age including an alleged informal one like jared kushner um so there's there's that but i think it's two things here first of all those democrats right now i don't want to even hear the notion of compromise or governing they just want to fight like they just want fight fight fight fight um because they're so angry about they have seen over the last year and a half plus and that's where gothimer who's a moderate who's um you know in that's problem solvers caucus which includes some republican

33:50which i think a lot of people watching and look at as a model and say gosh wouldn't it be nice if that would actually work well the issue is it hasn't really worked uh and we've only gotten more and more partisan so there's the fighting part of it the democrats just want to see that but beyond that i think the the listener is right um in that i don't have pole numbers in front of the i don't know that it's 80 percent but certainly i think we can safely stipulate there's a lot of anger on the democratic party right now about is you know and that is going to be a signature issue um this we're seeing it already this fall but also it's going to be that it's going to be significant in 2028 for that presidential election uh particularly is netanyah who is still empowered now if he loses uh elections in israel this fall maybe that takes a little bit of the steam out of this but i still think israel it the political calculation has changed in swung dramatically uh in the last couple years right uh and we just looked it up i think the listener got the member of congress wrong even though the gist was right um here's a new york times article

34:57progressives condemned pick of pro-Israel democrat a top house panel and then the subhead is outrage over making representative jared mosquets so not just got hired but jared mosquets who is vocally pro-Israel the top democrat on the middle east policy subcommittee uh reflected the party's rift over israel this new york times article says um and and really you know the market program means because i love yes love the uh mosquets also i mean he's a little more out there in his media appearances but he has also worked republican the time the time but also particularly he is very pro pro-Israel you're the the misters and cabalee right about that and reading down in this i see that that there's a joshheimer quote in it he said our democrats trying to tell other democrats that supporters of the u.s. israeli relationship aren't welcome in leadership positions and who is next is this a new litmus test for committee chairs muskowis is beyond qualified so

36:00that's a quote from josh gotheimer obviously being on and they're both muskowis inside caucus yeah problem-solvers meaning that caucus tom swazis another one who works with some republicans to come up with bipartisan solutions um to this but do you think it's a political misread at very least by jifres for the exact reason that that the listener says uh because you know the vast majority of democrats from all the polling that i've seen recently whether or not they use the word genocide let's leave that out of it whether or not they use the word they think what israel is doing is horrible in gaza and even in lebanon um and um you know even having many new questions about whether israel should exist as a jua state i mean this is very very wide spread among democrats it certainly is um that's completely uh accurate and as i said we'll play a role

37:03not just this fall but in in twenty eight uh as well so in that regard yes i do think it's a bit of a mystery from jifres i think he would counter by saying well look you know we have to to govern as well um that i'm you know that there are other applications here beyond just this sort of day-to-day political feelings uh but yeah there's no question um and i do think you interlated to my uh earlier comment about democrats wanting a fighter there have some who have grumbled about jifres but they don't think he's right and angry or is out there as they as they might want him to be in a time of trump let me touch two other trump things before we run out of time you wrote an article in july about trump reversing a reversal regarding ice they were going to stop doing some kind of routine traffic stops to check immigration status but trump ordered them to not stop what was that about within the two camps in the administration there you've got a couple of five profile instance of violence when ice agents have to have conducted traffic stops um i

38:09believe the one i believe this is in texas that led to this uh over uh the change in policy from phs which went out in a memo that we witnessed um my colleague and i had the Atlantic only to have trump to take a pressure from the right uh and where it the reversal to be reversed and i think it's part of a larger story or two things first of all secretary mulland already seemingly on fin ice uh he has gotten cross-wire with trump a couple of times i'm already and he's done so because trump is listening to the sort of far right members of his base and is reflexively doubling down on some of his most hard line immigration and deportation tactics even the polls suggest americans are very unhappy with this particularly in the way to what happened in Minneapolis at the beginning of this year but trump i i've chronicled this for years trump whatever he's in the political corner always goes back to immigration he believes that's his signature and best issue he

39:09believes that's what got elected wasn't anything else in 2016 they believe that was a big part of his comeback in 2024 he thinks this is what people want uh even though he's gone so far beyond the promise to just focus on deporting the worst of the worst criminals uh and the like um and instead you know targeted people who many americans feel are just simply members of their community who they have known for years at in school at church at the ball field uh whatever it might be um but we are seeing them ratchet up enforcement again with we have you know they they they they of one didn't some of the high profile incidents and headlines that dominated the early part of this year um but they are deportations have gone up at targeted airports they target court houses they targeted uh a number of sites to get those numbers up stinkin millers still hold to daily call with the hs leaders uh in delivering them to meet these quotas um and just a few days ago uh we had secretary and volunteer in new york uh announced operation rotten apple which is going to be uh and enhanced

40:13and enforcement targeted operation here in here too what farm is that likely to take in new york city how much can you say i think we're very different than it looks at a place and frankly some officials have suggested to me it might be just more for show um then we've seen other cities for two real reasons first of all they've already encountered some real push-back in protest here in New York remember that incident on came out through the early days of the administration and which the agents were sort of shut it down uh by just as average civilians who weren't going to put up with it also so much what ice does is vehicle-based particularly the court of the patrol agents who were helping out these ice operations and you just can't do that in New York it's the direction to pick and the cars and the city is too big and also as one of the administration officials reported to me the city is too dense and therefore you could imagine an ice operation on the sidewalk would suddenly you have debris to be raining down from the building above them uh from people who don't like what they're doing so we'll see i al i

41:15certainly hope there's not a real altercation or violence um so mayor non-dani has criticized this potential operation um i i suspect though it will not be as widespread as we have seen in other big cities even like a Minneapolis or Chicago and just one other thing that i have to touch regarding trump in the midterms because it's so mind-boggling to me uh he recently embraced of all things data centers in a very full-throated social media post he wrote quote the only reason that communities throughout the USA should not want data centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor if they want to be successful and rich with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place let data rain and he continued if we kill the golden goose you will only have yourselves to blame China could not be happier with this anti-data center movement actually they can't believe it's happening unquote from trump social media posts but Jonathan again in the context of the midterms

42:17isn't that the opposite of how you have most republicans are running on data centers right now especially as they relate to electricity bill inflation it absolutely is and it's striking it's weird seeing issue where public opinion has turned so rapidly so quickly that suddenly it's AI and particularly these data centers are so wildly unpopular among the electorate right now and to the point where even the democrats like i think a governor ship hero Pennsylvania who is a pretty full-throated advocate himself of this of these data centers maybe a year ago had done a 180 because he has seen the public sentiment go exactly in the opposite direction because these facilities are loud they're expensive they use so much water they use so much power local community to see their bills rise the list goes on and on in addition to the fact that there's a thought today AI they're creating will eventually take our jobs and yes there are big reasons to think that the uf cannot abandon AI we the right way with china is real there are implications

43:21but in a is a short term political matter you know grump is way off here we have seen well in a lot of these data centers were planned for red communities red states and republicans want no part of them now and this now is that a really good job sending reporters that places in e-con in texas in calrato and rector other states and voters who initially were like oh yeah this would be good and completely changed on it they don't want these things trump seems really out of touch and it's a reflection i think of the company he keeps he is surrounded himself with billionaires he is surrounded himself with tech giants and and and leaders in social media and AI those people obviously want these and i get us that data centers trump is looking to them and it's yet another moment where he has this time around don't he had lost his seal for not just for the public ones but even what is a swan i mean he was so intuitively good at that in the first term he no longer is and that's yet just another reason why republicans are so nervous about these

44:23interrelations johnathan lamir staff writer at the Atlantic and cohost of one and jo on ms now his latest article in the Atlantic the real reason trump wants economic sanctions in aron thanks a lot johnathan reaways really appreciated my pleasure to do it against it