2026 Women's US Open Final Prediction: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Odds, Bets, Props, Preview, Conditions

0:00You're listening to Betty Newgley WTA on The Bat Rivers Network. Hello buddy, welcome on in, it's Betty Newgley WTA. It is the Women's Singles final at the US Open after a tournament that promised so much underneath shocks. A very competitive market, we have the number one and the number two seed in action is Serena Sabalinka against Rebecca. To go through the match we have our WTA handicap, a Tim Dennis on standby before introducing to Tim, please may ask you to hit the subscribe button ring the bell, be notified of all the content that is coming your way such an exciting time here on the channel. The US Open may be coming through a conclusion, but a tennis never stops until the end of the season in November. We have recovered every week. We also have Premier League action as well now in week number four and the Champions League was back midweek, we will recover that all the way through to the final in June. The NFL season is here and if you are passionate about it on all those walks this is the place

1:03for you. So ring that subscribe button, join what is probably the fastest growing sportsmen in YouTube channel. So many of you have joined us in the last few weeks. Thank you very much if you are new to the channel. I do know, if you do not hit that subscribe button and that's all we ask. We do this content for you for free, don't have you charged you anything and if you want to continue, please ring that subscribe button. That's all we ask. That's what we do. Okay, let's go on to the Women's singles final. It is number one, the number two seed and to break it down is our WTA handicap at him. Dennis, good morning to you, Tim. How are you? Good morning, Roger. Yeah, very well. Thank you. How about yourselves? Do you see any of those semi finals? I know. Oh, pretty late last night UK time. Fast asleep. Fast asleep, I was way way aware. It looked like you just come fresh from the practice session at the Spa Grand Prix or Monza, wherever you've been this morning, but it's nice to see you. Yeah. 50 laps there, practice session. Yeah, I think everyone's in Madrid this weekend, straight from Madrid to this WTA show and then back there for qualifying this afternoon. Yeah, I'm going to enjoy your qualification. Let's have a look at these tennis matches.

2:04Like I said at the top of the show there, I mean, we had a very, very wide open field at the start. There's lots of doubts about these two players in particular. There's lots of doubts about Sabalinka. There was question marks about Elena Rebiker as forms, even though she is now well number one coming into it. They were two people. There are a lot of people expected to fade actually in this tournament. Goff was very popular. Very huge betting on her. Azarko, our pick was also there. Pagula was also expected to do well, but it's come down to the number one and the number two seed here. And you know, probably they're peaking at the right times. Sabalinka at a slow start, but both of them are coming in. It's now peaking at the right time. Yeah, they've done what sort of champions do. Don't know. Sabalinka playing our best tennis on hard courts. I think this is now her eighth consecutive slam fine or on a hard court. So yes, on a hard court, she's certainly the player to beat. And Rebiker, obviously she had a few injury concerns coming in here when she sort of retired from that fine against the against the against the against the against the. I think there was a doubt.

3:05We go like just two weeks ago when we did the preview show. There was a doubt whether she'd even play the first round and clearly she did and she's got better as the tournament's gone on. And that hasn't seemed to be any issue for her at all. And not just these two, we had the number three and four seats need to have beaten the semi finals to get here. So yeah, who's to say women's tennis isn't predictable, but I promise you it's not always like this, but I think it's the first time in an awful long time. I saw a stat earlier about how many years it's been since all four got to the stage of the semi finals. And yeah, now we've got the number one and two seed in the final. Yeah, the number one and two seed. That's all the show arena Sabalinka and Alaina Rebiker. They have had previous history, obviously, many times these two have met, they've met in fact, 19 times 11, eight is the head Ted record. And it's in favor of Sabalinka. The last time they met was this year in Miami as a 6463 win in the semi final. Their last three appearances they made were all finals, Indian Wells as well. This year, 366, 366 in Sabalinka's favor Australian open in the final.

4:07Rebiker and one that the major this year on a hard court 644, 664. And in the master's cup final as well, the the tour ending championship 6376 for Rebiker as well. So they have met in finals, they have met before. Looking at their red Ted record, 19 wins they played. 11 of them have gone to a final set. 13 of the 19 have gone over the totals. And one of those matches hasn't completed. So the completed match is 13 of the 18 has gone over the total. And that would be an angle in that I would be looking at in this match. Let's have a look at the odds with bet rivers currently for the women's final. It's minus 159 Sabalinka plus 133 Rebiker. And a spread is 3.5 there and the average of totals was quite high. It's 23.5 with the under the favor over two and a half sets, which statistically is a decent bet in this matchup. It's plus 112. So if you are looking for a normal match, perhaps look at the over two and a half sets rather than the over 23.5 games there. It will be over 80 markets, probably even pushing 100 markets.

5:09On this final, when they take to the court tomorrow, 4pm Eastern time. And we'll be covering this match on betting weekly tennis live as well. The first set will be live. If you're able to join us in play and I'll watch along tomorrow on the Sabalinka Rebiker match. Before we go into tomorrow's action, we need to know what we're betting. So the man is going to break it down and tell us where all the angles are. This is Mr. Dennis. There we go. Take your way, sir. Yeah, a fascinating head to head and a repeat of this year's Australian Open Final. Obviously these two are going to book in the Grand Slam tournaments, taking part in the slam finals each. And obviously she's a fish. He's still one number on Sabalinka Rebiker will become number one on Monday. Obviously facing off each other here. A couple of interesting stats just to look at for the final before we sort of get into these two. I think only three of the last 12 finals, the first sets gone over nine and a half games. Now, when I was looking at these stats, that was before I realised these two players are actually going to be in the final. So obviously you had a player like Anis Mover in their last year on Zubur in 2022, for example,

6:11a Radikanu the year before, although Radikanu was one of the ones that went over the nine and a half total. And only three of the last 12 finals have gone the distance, gone to three sets. But again, I'm not sure that's too much of a concern to these two. And actually the last player to win three in a row, which Aurena Sabalinka is trying to do, was obviously Serena Williams back in 2014. But just looking at their official head to head records, I think they've played a couple of extra missions, but just the official ones. I think Sabalinka leads that 10-7. And she's obviously won the last two, both in America, those finals took place in Miami, Indian Wells. But Radikanu, she actually did win the two before that. And the last six matches they've played have all taken place on hard courts, and that stands at three each. Just the six tie breaks played in all the head to head they play. So I think you might think there'd be more than that with these two the way they serve, but not just the six so far. We look at what they've done in their heads ahead. Sabalinka, she wins 68.9% of her first serve points. Radikanu a little bit higher, she's winning 71%.

7:12Second serve points, Sabalinka, 48.7%. Again, Radikanu, she leads that as well, 49.2%. So just a little bit ahead on both those first serve and second serve points one stat. We look at their break point chances and what they're saving. Sabalinka, she's actually saving the break points against her 56.9% of the time. We look at Radikanu again, she's higher 61.9% of the time she manages to save those break points. And they would look at converting break points again. It's Rebikenoo's in the lead. Rebikener 43.1%. Sabalinka a little bit lower at 38.1%. So straight away that you're sort of eyes drawn to that sort of money line plus 133 Rebikener. And we look at their service points one return points one in just their head to head records. It's Rebikenoo's again ahead on that 101.6 to 98.4. So again, she's pretty much ahead on every single stat I've just mentioned there. So I think that plus 133 is a little bit perhaps a little bit of value. We just look at what they've done on the last hard courts in the last 12

8:13months. Rebikenoo's she has an 83.1% win rate. Sabalinka, she's the one who's a little bit higher here. They're 88.6% and the service points one return points one total of 109.2% for Sabalinka and 107.3 for Rebikener. At the Grand Slam, Rebikener 88% win rate. Sabalinka a little bit lower at 85. And Sabalinka though, she has a slightly higher total 110 to 109. And if we look at what they're done against top 10 players in the last 52 weeks. Rebikener has a 72.7% win rate. Ever so slightly higher. Sabalinka 73.3%. Although it's Rebikener as the better total against the world's best players. 105.3. Sabalinka down at 102.6. So yeah, they're kind of all the main stats to take from this. And I think this is exactly the almost exactly what it is the same matchup we looked at the Australian Open and the records haven't changed huge amounts since. Obviously they played a couple of times and Sabalinka's got the better of those two. But having said that, the stats are still in Rebikener's favour. So I think very sort

9:14of straightforward here. I think Rebikener to me looks a little bit overpriced at plus 133. I'm looking at some of their records here at Majors. I mean, they've played all these times before 19 times. Obviously, some of these tournaments are lesser quality than you would expect here. Obviously in the final, you know, you take Brisbane, for example, where Rebiken was in the final in 2024. She won that six laps, six three. But in Majors, where there's a lot of state and they've met in finals twice. It's a consistency along the game. The Australian Open this season was a three set match, 30 games. The Australian Open again at the final when they met in 2023 was the final. It was 29 games, three sets. They met in Wimbledon in 2021, 29 games, three sets. So all the big matches that these have played, we, you know, you've got to talk about Rebikener who comes sometimes with injuries into little tournaments, motivation for Sabalinka and little tournaments isn't so much as you know, going lesser down the tennis rankings. But when there's got to the Majors, these two rise to the occasion and they always produce a classic that goes the

10:21long way. And I, you know, we're looking at Rebikener at plus 133. But I'm also drawn to the over two and a half sets. So would you be interested in Rebikener two sets to one here at plus 335? Because if when she wins these big matches against Sabalinka, which is done, you know, the last few times she's won. I mean, you know, Australian Open this year, you know, in the Australian Open previously, the Wimbledon previously, they've been two sets to one. I mean, I like the Rebikener money line, but I also like the over here. I don't see this being a straight sets walking the path, even nerves. They both get flaky at stages as well. You, you, you leaning to that approach as well? Yeah, I think every chance that they're both going to have their sort of moments of excellent tennis Rebikener had it against Goff yesterday. Goff was excellent in the first set and Rebikener managed to fight back and and Sabalinka, we saw her at a good level against Noscow very in her quarter final. A level dropped a little bit in that second set and managed to come through again in three. So this could be very similar. I think in that, that first Australian Open final, they played.

11:24I think I'm writing saying that Rebikener took the first set there. Didn't she? I'll just see if I can double check with my stats in front of me here. But I can't. I can't. I can't take the first set six four in the Australian Open. Yeah. Sabalinka come back four six and then it was six four again. It's all three sets were six four. Yeah. And then obviously Rebikener did exactly the same this year taking that first set there as well. So I mean, yeah, that, that, you make a good point now. That plus three thirty five Rebikener two sets to one might well be away going. I did thought, I'm not sure I want a bit over two in our sets. I think, yes, it's a likely outcome. But I think plus one one two is perhaps a little bit on the short side. So yeah, this could be an option of maybe even split stakes. I do think I want to get with Rebikener on the money line at plus one thirty three having ran through all the stats we've had. And the last time these met at a slam Rebikener came out on top. But yeah, it might well be well split staking and adding that two one set betting in at plus three thirty five because I think that does probably look a little bit overpriced to me. Just looking at their record this year, 33 wins and

12:26just the three losses on the hard court for Sabalinka. One of those losses was obviously the Australian open final against Rebikener. Rebikener thirty five wins seven losses are both excellent for these are the probably on their day. I mean, I got to challenge them and you got other players who are in touching this as a challenge. But when they're on the day, these are the best two tennis players. Women's tennis players in the world by some margin, I think. If you look at our price here plus one thirty three, it is the best price around on Rebikener. If you want to get that with betrothing, check that out on the app. There has been money in the build up to the match four Sabalinka, but I think that plus one thirty three may be under a bit of pressure as the day goes on today. So if you want to get involved in that price, I would take the plus one thirty three nice and early. If we look at the route through Sabalinka's had a fairly comfortable route to which you got to the semi final, especially because she was tested by a notch girl and played well against Jessica Piccudi yesterday. Rebikener is tougher. You know, Ozarka, Jean, Struggle, look for opening set there. Goff. I mean, I think it's a slightly tougher route. She didn't drop a drip set until the

13:30last two sets, both of them two sets to one. And on the way here, Sabalinka just dropped the one set to Linden, Noschkaver and it was very, you know, that was a battling performance where she looked like she was on the verge of losing this match. Have you checked out the betrothing with her? Tim, to look at any other market she liked, this is a co-host of markets there. Have you seen anything else that's at any value in some of the props? Yeah, I did have a look at a few prop bets. I'm looking forward to obviously these markets will be there'll be more and more the closer match time comes. And I think an angle that might interest me later. I'm not sure if it's on there. Just check now is the is the Aces market actually is up now. The total is at over 13.5. And I think that probably looks a little bit cheap if this goes long. I'd expect them to cover that fairly comfortably. And Sabalinka's line is at over 5.5. And I think she's covered that in most of the heads. When I had a very brief look earlier. So plus 1.15 over 5.5 Sabalinka's look initially straight well after that. That looks over price to me. She strikes me as a similar player to kind of almost jock of it. In these huge matches,

14:31her serve seems to be her very best in these massive events. The bigger the event, the better her serve becomes. Yes, she might not serve huge amounts of Aces in her first couple of round matches. But her serve definitely does become more on point as the sort of tool that goes on. And obviously this being a final you're not going to get it and sort of any more serious than that. I'll just have a quick look at their sort of latest. I think Sabalinka. She comfortably served there. I think it was five at seven Aces against Pagula just in two sets in the last round. Pagula, not the easiest person to waste. I think in this last head to head, these two had in Miami. I think Sabalinka actually out-aste, Rebecca. Now yeah, nine to two. So straight away that five and a half line on Sabalinka looks a little bit cheap there to me. And we're getting plus money about that. So that's one I'd certainly like to keep an eye on. And I think you made a good point there about these players, perhaps being a little bit clear. I was quite interesting to hear Jess Pagula in her post match interview talk about the level Sabalinka played against her. And I thought she was a little bit

15:31negative. She just said, I don't think I was able to beat her today. And I haven't got a serve that's able to get me out of trouble like a rebuy can it has. And she also said she doesn't have the athleticism of someone like Coco Gough. So yeah, perhaps that was might have been Pagula's best and last chance there yesterday, but she she she was very commendable about Sabalinka. Said she played to an extremely high level, but I think as we've seen before with the total of these two have gone, these games do quite suit each other. They sort of both hit the ball hard from the baseline. That suits Rebecca. And she loves to get into a rhythm. And yeah, I think it's all about totals. And as we mentioned there with those prop bets, I think this is certain to go long. So yeah, that over five and a half ACEs is quite interesting. What I'll do before the match gets underway. If anything else does come up, we can put that up on the Instagram perhaps tomorrow. But straight away that just having a first look at that status bet over five and half total ACEs for a rena Savalinka plus one one five looks a little bit big. Yeah, I mean, the reason I think they are the best because I just feel that when they are

16:35absolutely on it, like and they have occasions where they're not on it. I think they are the best two tennis players. I think Sabalinka obviously beats herself and Revike can sometimes have bodylets of them. But I think when they are fit and they're well on their on it, these are the best two tennis players. They've got everything big serves, big power hitting, big hearts, totally different in their emotions. Revike can it keeps it completely under control all the time. You know, no, you wouldn't it when she won her first woman and tell us she didn't even smile. And Sabalinka all passion, all fire, you know, lives a thousand emotions through her face through the two hour tennis match are incredible. I've got some stats from the last time they met in the Australian open. If you're looking at the ACEs market here, Sabalinka in fact, got five ACEs in that final across 30 games and Revike can have got six. So there was 11 ACEs in that final, which you know, is a little bit lower than the line to jest here. But obviously, I don't know what the court speed is to compare to that today. One thing I haven't asked you about is what the weather's like in New York. It looks quite fair. Is it looks okay for the final? Yeah, no,

17:37she's at all low to mid 70s and cloudy. So the forecast, it doesn't look like the sun's going to be out. Obviously that can change in time. This is match schedule to play place at I think nine four PM Eastern time on Saturday. So yeah, Saturday afternoon at the moment. Yeah, low to mid 70s, perfect temperature and it looks like sort of overcast and cloudy. Yes, the humidity will still be there, but some almost perfect conditions not going to inconvenience either. I want to thought. Yeah, why you're on the bet rivers out. Check out the bet rivers banter. If you're looking for a bet an angle, check out the top picks newsfeed in your bet rivers app. The bet rivers banter newsfeed is filled with picks from bet rivers network personalities and more handy capers to give you expert insights. Tap the top picks icon in your bet rivers app to get the latest tips. And there'll be tips on there from Steve Wiss across the European action in the world of soccer. I will have a same game parlay for Saturday's live match involved in the champions Arsenal and Mike and Doug will be giving you loads of action on the NFL weekend week number one and it'll be all

18:41on the bet rivers banter. Check out that top picks icon on the bet rivers app. Before I let you go to see my notice a lot of markets that are coming up and you've looking at them at the moment, you know, we've talked about the ACEs. We're talking about the money line is on the other props. Is there anything else that statistically thinks a little bit of an edge? You're just keeping your power to draw on the money line. I mean, I think we'll probably we spoke about that sort of two one there. So I think it's probably worth doing split stakes here. Perhaps if we had if we had with it being a final if we had three quarters of a point on Rebuke and plus 133 because I do think that's a little bit big and I think I agree. Tends agree with you that that's probably going to be near a sort of plus 120 come the off. I think there'll be support for Rebuke now that price. And I think she'll certainly shorten and perhaps it's worth having three quarters of a point on Rebuke and to win two one as well at plus 335 another bet that looks over price to me with the history these two have had. And I will stick with that yes that ACEs line last time they met at the Australian Open up on a similar kind of court speed, but I do think the way I've seen

19:44Savillenko serve this week she was she was excellent against there against Noskovir and and pretty solid against Pagula last night. I do think yeah five five and a half aces is a little bit on the cheap side. So it won't be an unofficial play for us, but if I was looking for a prop bet you probably look at that angle too and I guess they all kind of tie in together whether you're looking at over total minutes or over total sets or or games they all sort of tie in those kind of 108 and 0.5 minutes I think the line is at, but yeah that's those are probably the ones that interest me the most, but as far as official plays goes yeah I think we're biking on the money line just a little bit too big and rebuke and a two one is worth a play as well. Yeah if we look at Savillenko obviously she's going for a third success if US Open. She said in her press conference she's more important about winning the US Open for a third time then becoming world number one Rebuke and it is currently the world number one that won't be official whatever happens until Monday and this will be the first major of 2026 for a department a incredible record this year she obviously was being in finals Australian quarterfinals in the French Open and fourth round at Wimbledon

20:46and this is her fourth successive final here at US Open and a record on high goals because it's exceptional fourth successive finals as well at the Australian Open. Having said that she's one four of her last actually being in eight major finals uh Savillenko and she's one four and lost four Rebuke and on the other hand has been on three major finals she's one two and lost one so that's an important fact as well uh it's going to be intriguing and we will have it covered for you on betting weekly tennis live so when the match starts four PM Eastern time uh tomorrow will be going live on the YouTube channel covering that match and I'm I've done it was on there am I on we I don't I don't think it's me so I think it's myself a mix I think yep uh yeah it's Tim and Mitch going down I'm glad you're on the WTA final but that makes sense I don't I've done the right thing on the road and that's pretty good so uh yeah that we covered it by Mitch and Tim we were going through the first set looking at the in play giving their thoughts as the game unfolds watch along for the final on betting weekly tennis live make sure you tune in for that betting weekly live as well uh today at

21:4911 o'clock Eastern time if you're watching this show before then make sure you check out it's the Premier League week number four preview show with Dan Robuck and Jack Wright betting weekly live PM this afternoon at four PM with Mike and uh and Doug he's going to be another massive day because it's the preview of all the NFL action as well so what a huge day on the channel here uh make sure you subscribe to the channel so said at the top of the show and our official bets are for the final our Tim uh yeah a couple of official players I think with swimmers split stakes for three quarters of a point on Elena Rebiker on the money line at plus one thirty three and three quarters of a point Elena Rebiker to win two sets to one at plus three thirty five yeah I like the over two and half sets at plus one twelve uh I'm looking at the over is the length of the final time in the final as well as another market if you've been betting that market in the in Wimmy's matches and men's matches in the latter stages to all that you'll be caching tickets galore in the time of the final that line will come up later uh check out the bet ribs out for all those late odds that will be appearing

22:49as the day progresses here and there and for their tomorrow's action in New York remember to check out the bet ribs banter I'll be back tomorrow with Sean Calvert to preview the men's singles final uh the interesting one there with guaranteed an American finalist can they end the drought since 2003 where the Rodic won the US Open come the first major champion we're going to have a finalist will see what's going to happen uh that's it for today that is it for the Wimmy's on the Benning Weekly Studios here for the US Open uh hopefully you've enjoyed the content and I'll say if you have learned so much more coming keep that click that uh subscribe button join us uh for the remainder of the year the tennis year and hopefully we can go out with styles some more picks um and winners Tim thanks very much for your time take care enjoy your weekend enjoy the tennis and join us back tomorrow on Benning Weekly game bet match and Benning Weekly tennis live tomorrow live watch long for the women's final with Tim and Mitch take care goodbye thanks for listening to Benning Weekly WTA on the Beck Rivers Network