3 Things Texas MUST Show Before Ohio State — Will the Longhorns Drop 50? | Arch Manning

0:00Football is finally back and this is the time of year when I probably have more action going than any other point on the calendar. That's why I like my bookie. Whether I'm sitting around before kickoff, killing some time between games, or I see something I like right before the ball goes in the air, I can pull it up and make my play. You don't have to overthink every game or feel like you need to have some complicated system. Find a matchup that you've been watching all week, see a number you like, put a little action on it and suddenly that game you are already going to watch has a little more juice. If you're new to my bookie, they're also giving you a little protection on that first wager with the bet back bonus. Just sign up using promo code CFB2026, CFB like college football, 2026, opt into that bet back bonus and make your first play. If that wager loses, you get it back. College football is here, the board is loaded and there's finally something to bet on every Saturday again. Get in on the action with my bookie bet on anything anytime, anywhere. Good Saturday morning to you, everybody.

1:02This is the first edition of the Saturday conversation of the 2026 football season. This episode brought to you by our friends over at Sheels, the sports superstar over in Cedar Park. I'm Bobby Burton. He's Rod Bavre's each and every Saturday morning, I want to lay the lay, give you a lay of the land. We're going to talk about the Texas game first and foremost. We'll get to your Texas long warrants. And then we'll talk about the SEC matchups that are impactful, we think, from a Texas viewpoint. And then also we may take a look at a couple of national games. But first and foremost, as I mentioned, let's go after the Texas long horns. Rod, you and I talked beforehand. We came up with three keys for this game. Let's start with key number one. You and I both wrote down two words together. We both described that. What do you mean by that? I mean for the offense to, first of all, not be your own worst enemy.

2:02Penalties were a big issue for Texas last year. You're one of the worst teams in the country when it came to penalties and penalty yardage. So a cleaner game overall, where Texas playing more discipline, football, I think that's a big start. But also the running game is a big part of efficiency. And limiting negative plays a big part of efficiency. Last season, if you combined negative yardage lost on penalties and on negative plays, Texas had the ninth most yards lost on offense last season. So you were your own worst enemy a lot of the times. And that kept you behind the chain and it led to a lot of inefficiency. It led to you having to play a lot of hero ball for R&T on third and long. So I think the running game number one will keep the efficiency. So that efficiency to me is about the running game. And they stay on time. Can they stay on schedule with the running game and stay ahead of the chains and get explosive plays out of the running game. Something else. I think they will talk about as a key protectors in this match. I've ever seen. Yeah, I do think that when I think of the efficient, I think of get the first downs, move the football

3:03regularly or consistently. The one thing that you just mentioned there at the other part is the, the, and part of the sentence for me. You be efficient and make those big plays because that's what I think ultimately. Sart tried to build this team around. They're not, I mean, look, there are going to be defenses you come up against this year that you may not be able to move the ball consistently. It's just the way of the world in the SEC. You may just come up against a really good defense Oklahoma, for example. You're probably going to be hard to move the ball consistently against them, but they are susceptible to big plays. And so you want to see the efficiency against a team like Texas State. And then you want to see the big plays that also splash that you know could turn a game in Dallas. Yeah, like that. And by, we haven't seen that by the way, that would be a first thing about it. You were top 10 in explosive plays, 20 plus shoulder plays generated in 23 and in 24. But yet you had kind of these shake, spirit and tragic flaws also about your, your offense

4:04and your team in 2023. It was a red zone offense, right? And 20th in the country in touchdown percentage in the red zone. Well, man, the explosive plays, if you could actually be more efficient in the red zone, think about how high power that offense going to be 2024, it was turnovers. You actually were one of the worst teams in the country, bottom 10 in turnovers loss in 2024. But yet you were number one in the country, let the country in explosive plays. So what we haven't gotten yet and we obviously in 2025, different discussion altogether, just weren't explosive or efficient. Can you get the combination of explosivity and efficiency from a sore offense? Because that could be scary because we have not seen it yet. Yeah, we haven't. And I think it's interesting. Rod, question for you is it relates to all of this and the idea of what we're talking about here with Texas. I think you and I expect Texas to win. I mean, 29 and a half point favorite. So really, this isn't necessarily a key to the game in some ways as much as what we want to see from the game right now.

5:07Now that doesn't Texas might still win if they don't hit all of these keys. So this is kind of more what we want to see. The second thing that I wanted to bring up was defense. And my big piece on this, it's a new defense. It's a new secondary, relatively speaking. It's a new scheme. My piece of what I want to see on defense, no breakdowns, no major breakdowns. Nobody's getting behind the safety, like what happened at Vanderbilt, right? Does Texas State have a powerful offense and a really good quarterback and two wide receivers? Absolutely, they do. They're going to make some plays, but no breakdowns within that for Texas. It's okay if they make some plays. It's not okay if you give up free plays. I mean, a little bit of the pass rush for me. And I think that's one of the keys to this game. And one of the things I really want to see is a defense that is ready to go because there will be no quarter taken next week against Ohio State.

6:10It's a great point, Bobby. And we've heard even Raheem Boss talked about how, you know, he got chewed out for making having a mental era in a must-champ scheme. It's a little bit different. The level of discipline and I think the standard of discipline for guys. And I'll say this is a member of DBU, all right? There were way too many coverage busts in that secondary last season, all throughout the set. I think it's why they actually, you know, benched a couple of guys in that secondary and played some of the younger guys. So I think that's going to be key. I'll add to it, but the defense thing is also being opportunistic. That's a big part of being a must-champ defense. I don't know schematically if we're going to see all the different cheat codes and amplifiers that we want to see from a must-champ defense versus Texas State. Because I think the element of mystery, which is a huge advantage versus Ohio State, you're not going to want to give that up versus Texas State. So I think you're going to see a lot of base. And by the way, defense accordingly is a lot to be able to succeed in base, right? I just got our base for our base functions or our defense, our base pressure packages, our basic coverage is that kind of thing.

7:11And I think that's what you're going to see a lot of mistakes. Plus, they also have pace in space. So they're going to be going up tempo, makes it tough to have these complex disguises and complex pressure packages. So you're going to see a simplified version of the must-champ defense, but what I want to see is what are still the traits of a must-champ defense, the violence, the aggression, the heart hits, right? That's a physicality, that's a non-negotiable. And like you said, guys being disciplined in the scheme, no coverage, but mental errors. So we can still see a must-champ defense without seeing all the signifiers and amplifiers that make it so unique and make it such a lethal defense. We don't need to see whipped cream and a cherry on top. Just give us the banana split with a couple of scoops ice cream. We're fine this week. I would say one thing more thing about turnovers. And I want to kind of shoehorn it in because you're talking about being physical, maybe creating some turnovers, that sort of thing. I think that one of the things we want to continue to see as well, and I don't really

8:12consider this one of our three subjects, but we want to continue to see arch-maning in this offense be a little stingy with the football, like they were at the end of last year. So it's not just, when I talk turnovers, I'm not just talking about that Texas aggressive defense. I'm talking about Raleigh Brown and Hollywood's mother's and Derek Cooper and arch-maning protecting the ball. Arch-maning not throwing the ball into the other team's hands, you know what I mean? So I want to see a little bit of that. Third thing, and this is the area rod. You actually excel that in one of the better players to ever play at Texas doing this, not a lot of people know that. Special teams. And the reason I am big on this, I believe that Texas in a game like this, there is no unit, offense or defense, where you could have the outright speed and overall athleticism of a team like Texas and its depth compared to a team like Texas State.

9:17Yeah. What I mean by that is, look, I mean Texas has depth, they have a number of players, they're a fast team, talk to Steve Sarkieson on Thursday, he said, look, we're a team with really good speed. My question for you, I guess, is how important can special teams be in game one about getting out in front, an early blocked punt, early big return. Yeah, we sell with Texas may be a really good offense, they may have a smart defense, they don't have the all around athleticism of a Texas and that's really the one unit where I can see Texas almost taken over the game potentially if they're good on special teams today. I mean, if you're Texas State, do you have the kind of depth where you can play your best players on special teams, Texas can end up having guys like Jermaine Bishop, Derek Cooper and Richard Whizzley, John Meredith, you know what I'm talking about, five star caliber

10:21talent, just essentially contributing on special teams. There's no way Texas State can continue with that, so I agree with your point Bobby, that out of all of the phases, the disparity in talent is probably most easily recognized and seen in special teams and the return game I think is where I'm looking at Texas where they actually could and I wonder if they'll kick to Ryan Nibbett, I'm not even sure they will, maybe they will, it's the beginning of season, maybe they will, but I was talking to Fuzzy about that, he said, actually one of the things you're doing, you have a really good dynamic returner and in power of turn game is you give them another two guys back there. I mean, they thought if they want to Jermaine Bishop back there with Ryan Nibbett and forcing them to make a choice. That would be pretty compelling. So I agree with you. And I think also your coverage units, your gunners should be some of the best in the country, your coverage units should be some of the best in the country. So nothing to get Texas State, I just don't know if they'll have that caliber talent to be able to continue nationally that way. And I expect them to be aggressive and go after potentially a punt in this game.

11:22We did hear that, you know, Raheem Biles has got that knack and they put him out there. You know, that's something else I expect to see Texas try to have a go at in this game for Texas State. All right, Rod, we gave our score predictions yesterday over at the co-op. So let's think about this now. I want to hear and give us your, remind everybody of your score, but then tell us the why behind it. I'm going to go 40, I went 45, 17. And I can say that I know that's close, but not necessarily covering the number of ways somebody went. I don't know what the number is. I don't keep up with. I know it's around 29, 30 somewhere around there. But I think they come close to it. I don't know if that's the priority for Sarkin. Sarkin has been very, very the complimentary of this Texas State squad. You know, I got him scoring a couple of touchdowns. I got him scoring a little bit. I think one of them maybe early, maybe a couple of them couldn't early. I do think at one point the Sark run happens.

12:24At a Sark run where you essentially Sarkin's going, and I was going like three times in an eight, nine minutes span that's usually fueled by a turnover or a three and out of some kind. I see that happening at one point. It'd be great if it happened in the first half, but it definitely will happen at one point during the game. And that's when Texas will separate. That's usually when it happens. That quintessential Sark run that we talked about. And maybe it's a special teams play that feels the Sark run and then they really separate from Texas State. I am looking for a little more offense from Texas in this game, in particular because of the tempo that Texas State is going to operate it. They're not going to want to slow the game down. They're going to want to try to speed it up. I'm looking for a few more points from Texas. I went 52 to 20. 50 burger. Yes. 50 burger for Texas. Now people say, well, that's a lot of points for Texas State to score against a Texas defense. But I'm telling you, the quarterback at Texas State is legit.

13:27I talked to an NFL scout this week. And he said, look, he would be one of the top four quarterbacks Texas faces all year long. Those are big words when you consider they got Julian Sain, Trinidad, Chameless, San level. San level. I mean, there's some good quarterbacks Texas faces. That's what they said. Now we'll see what comes to pass. But I went 52 to 20. I'm hopeful. It's more like 52 to 10. But you know, I got to get my score prediction, right? I don't know. That sounds good to me. I don't think that's crazy at all. I like it. Rod, let's say thanks to our sponsor before we get to the other game to talk a little bit more about the Longhorns. Thank you very much to our friends over at Sheels. It opened on August 29th. And when I went out there, let me tell you, it was packed to the gills. It was outstanding. The folks at Sheels just do a great job. They understand what folks that love sports love to do more than 300,000 square feet packed to the gills with the best in sporting good hunting, fishing, camping, hiking, and

14:31all things sports. Try the top brands, test out the latest gear, and get expert help from people who love sports as much as you do. Your next adventure starts at Sheels. Thank you all very much for sponsoring on Texas football and the Saturday conversation. Rod, the games in the SEC, there are a few in Far between. They're going to be competitive or expect going to be competitive. All 16 teams are in action. I would say this, there are only three games this weekend in the SEC, where the point spread is less than 10. That's how, I mean, Georgia is favored by 46 and a half over Tennessee State. Tennessee is favored by 46 and a half over Furman. But here are the games that I would look at. Baylor Auburn, seven and a half point spread in favor of Auburn.

15:32That game gets kicked off same time as Texas today at 230. That game is going to be on ABC. Auburn new coach, Dave Rando on his last, you know, his ninth line. So to see. How do you see that game for Auburn versus Baylor? Yeah. And the thing that's hurting Dave Rando is that the defense is starting to fail. It's starting to deteriorate there, right? That's his signature, right? That's what he's known for there. I think ultimately Auburn, even though they've dealt with a lot of inept coaching lately, I do like Goalish and I do think lines are scrimmaged wise. That's where Auburn's going to have the advantage. That's where I think they truly separate from a program like Baylor. So it may be close, but I think about a fourth quarter Auburn separates it is because they're all on and D line. I take them over Baylor's units. I will say this too. Well, Miranda has been at Baylor a while and Goalish is new. They have quarterbacks there in the opposite scenario.

16:33Like DJ Lagoa expected to start for Baylor, but he's new with Dave Rando in a new system. Whereas Alex Goalish brought Byron Brown with him from South Florida. So it's a little there. I like Auburn to win, but I think this is a pick him game. Really? I really, I'm not a believer in Auburn at this point. I think they were more talent decimated under Hugh Freeze than maybe people realize. So that's my point. Tonight, the big game though, Clemson LSU, the Bruhaha and the Louisiana courts on Thursday and Friday. I give up on all of it. LSU though, listen to this, favored by 10 over Clemson. Yeah. Now, Clemson starts a new quarterback, but LSU has more than half its roster new. I mean, how are they going to look in that first game, giving them the favor or making

17:36them the favorite by 10 seems like a lot to me on its face. Yeah, a lot of faith in the offensive prowess and brain power of Lane Kiffin, but I agree. It is early with the new system and a lot of new pieces, but it also does a belief that you're going to see the best version of Sam Levit. And Lohman fans, no Sam Levit really well. He had a really good 2024, played too much hero ball probably in 2025 and then Rook Arthome, there's a belief that now him combined with Lane Kiff and he's going to be the perfect compliment and the compatibility with that system. I don't know how quickly that gels though, that's a really good question. And an old line from LSU was also a good question, but defensively, I like what LSU brings up table. I like that secondary coach Baker for them. The defense coordinator is very, very aggressive. So he's going to forest Clemson's new quarterback, wherever it is. They're going to speed up that time table and speed up those progressions. And I also think that they're going to be able to play a lot of man coverage. So if Clemson's quarterback, is it the veteran that's going to start for them, they got

18:36a four-year gap. Chris Vazini is an exciting star. He's the older one. If he can, if he can diagnose the man coverage and actually deal with the pressure that inevitably will compliment that LSU defense, he might be able to make some plays, but that's a tall task because that's secondary match. Well, they're really good receivers for Clemson. Don't forget, they got Westco, who's a guy's going to play on Sundays too and was it TJ Moore. They got two NFL receivers as well. So it'd be a good matchup actually with the cornerbacks on the outside, pick it. And I think Woodland is the other cornerback that started for LSU. Ty Benafield, the transfer of safety for Boise State. Yeah, I have to go second. Really, really good. They got a young defensive line. I'll take LSU, I'll take LSU. I'll take LSU. I'm going to take LSU. So plus 10. They're favored by 10. So you think they're going to. That's a big number, but I'll take a by 10. I'll take a number. I think the belief is that Davos Swini is going to continue to slip with his program and that you'll have the ascension of LSU in Lincoln. I think that you're onto something because that's exactly where I was thinking like these

19:38Davos teams are not increasing in talent level right now, unfortunately. And they've been ebbing for a while. I think it's more the same. Now actually the last game I'm going to talk about the SEC doesn't occur until Sunday. It's the nightcap of a three game set on Sunday. It is Louisville versus Ole Miss. I think this one is, even though it's not a big two big name teams, I know Ole Miss went to the National Semifinals. It doesn't have that sex appeal of a nightcap or it, you know what I mean? It's still Louisville and Ole Miss being set. Both teams ranked. Trinidad Chamblis, Kiwan Lacey, Pete Golding's first game as a head coach. The Rebels are the favorite by six and a half. So it touched down better. Jeff Brahm, the coach at Louisville, kind of as Jerry Hamilton likes to say, he can be a witch on offense at times.

20:39Really a number. And when he does, he twists the knife. You know what I mean by that? He's got you. He doesn't just let off the game. I mean, his twist. What do you think? Louisville Ole Miss, six and a half favorite by the Rebels, Sunday, ABC at six third. I mean, if I'm an Ole Miss fan, this would make me uneasy. Just because I know Ole Miss is favorite. But Louisville's got a nice formula for an upset because they got maybe the best running back duo in the country, the firmer, brown and brown, right? Isaac Brown, hello one thing. It's known him really well, right? Low one's one of them. And they got Kiwan Brown. But those guys average over seven yards per carrot. That's some tricky, crazy stuff. So they had a good running game. So they've been in control of the game. They do have a new story and quarterback. But that's been the case for Jeff Brahm every year. He's been there. I've been here with my friend starting quarterback, Vee of the Portal. So that's business as usual. And they have a Pass rush, one of the better pass rush in the country. We're talking about top 20, Call of a Pass rush, is it Clip? Clip? A Lubin, I believe it's his name. Gotta get 60 some pressure last year.

21:40Top ten in pressures in the country so they can get after the opposing quarterback and they can run the bar to be at a control the game. I'm going to take all of Miss. Because I think ChavLis is just that clutch. He's going to make enough plays. And I'm with it. of him and Lacey in the backfield, maybe one of the best games to watch running backs too, period. I don't know if you'll have a better display of running back talent between Lacey and these two brown, two players, brown and brown in the backfield for Louisville, but I would just say I'll take Ole Miss because I like the clutchability of Chambers, but if an upset happened, I would not be surprised. I would not be shocked at all. I would not be shocked. Here's my thought on it. I think we're gonna learn something today, or tonight, I should say. And that is whether or not Ole Miss is on the right track with Pete Golding out of the gate almost. Because they revamp the entire offensive staff. And it was not the defense that made Ole Miss a national semifinals.

22:40It was the offense. True. This offense comes out and puts up 17 points or 21 points against Louisville. We're all gonna be thinking, this may not be the year for Ole Miss, even with Chambers and Kiwam Lacey. I don't wanna say it's a referendum on the entire career of Pete Golding, but it could tell us a lot whether or not Ole Miss is gonna be a team to really be reckoned with in 2026. And they're not just a one-year hit with what they did last year. So we'll see tonight. I'm gonna go actually with Louisville. And I'm gonna go. Upset. I'm going upset. I think they're gonna win outright. I do because as much as I think that Pete Golding is probably gonna end up being a good coach, still his first ever head coach in jail. Jeff Rahm's been around the block. He's got skill personnel.

23:42He knows how to use it and deploy it, as well as just about anybody actually. So he's tremendous offensive coach. I'm gonna go with Louisville, beaten Ole Miss. All right, Rod, everybody else is in play for the SEC, but there's really, I mean, look, Missouri State goes to Aguiland today at six. I mean, no. A&M's favorite by 40 and a half. These are the games that shouldn't be happening. That can't happen. It never happened. It is. One to watch just real quick, East Carolina versus Bama. Now Bama is favored by 28 and a half. And just on its surface, you'd say, okay, Bama favored by 28 and a half. They're gonna be East Carolina last year was nine and four. Mm-hmm. Just like Texas State, ball team, quarterback, they got some pieces. So just think of it that way.

24:42All right, before we let folks go, Rod, one final question for you. It's a successful day in Austin today, if, take away those three keys that we talked about earlier, three wants. It's a successful day if. If the Longhorns are winning by more than three touchdowns at half, Longhorns defense will be satisfied. Cause that means you're on the way to beaten them by 30, whatever it is, when it happens. That means that Longhorns fans expectations, that means this team will be in their minds. Like, oh man, it's, he may be as good as we thought. If you're not, the Longhorns fans will be complaining on social media all the time. If it's a game with, if it's within 10 points at half time, I can tell you right now, Longhorns fans gonna be complaining. I know there's no doubt about it. Dude, you think though, I think I'll be complaining. If it's like, I think you're right. And I'll tell you one of the reasons I think you're right. You get up that big, Texas State, first of all,

25:42probably goes to a different quarterback, just to save their own course. Cause they're trying to win the conference, yeah, right? Yep. And then Texas, thereby gets to play some of its youth. A little bit more liberally than they would have otherwise. Yeah, Germain Bishop show, Derek Cooper show, which you went to. Cosiac Paula, Rocky Cummings, Terrey Davis. Yep. You name it. I think I like your point. One last note, I would, I wouldn't say this. The game, the biggest spread, and this is noteworthy because of what we're gonna be talking about in a week from now, a week from today, Rod. The biggest spread I see across the entire country, Ball State plays at Ohio State at 1130 this morning on the Big Ten Network. The spread for that game, 50 and a half. 50, 50, 50. The score. That didn't mean they're just gonna score 50.

26:42The spread. We're gonna say goodbye. We got the tailgate show coming up later today around 10 o'clock. Jerry Hamilton, myself, some other guys gonna jump on here in Austin for the pregame. Then we have the watch with us. Aaron Hogan will be hosting that. Rod B will be on coach Shipley. We'll have Jerry Hamilton on as well. We're gonna have a host of folks, Jeff, how coming in? Should we get to see if Marcus Myers wants to join us for a little bit? We hope you'll have fun with that. And then when the post game goes, I'll be back with Rod Bavars as well as Brian Robison. How many years he played in the NFL? Whoops. He played enough that he can now have a place in Bellville and not worry about anything else, maybe. He got a ranch. That's fair, Brian. So we'll have him tonight. It should be a lot of fun. Also, I wanna say one last thing. Shout out to our producer Matt Hutchison. You see this new graphic? Hey.

27:43That's been doing a lot of work for us. Thanks, thanks. Appreciate it. Very, very much. For Rod Bavars and Matt Hutchison, I'm Bobby Burton. Guys, college football, 2026 is here. Lookable. Football is finally back. And this is the time of year when I probably have more action going than any other point on the calendar. That's why I like my bookie. Whether I'm sitting around before kick off, killing some time between games, or I see something I like right before the ball goes in the air, I can pull it up and make my play. You don't have to overthink every game or feel like you need to have some complicated system. Find a matchup that you've been watching all week. See a number you like? Put a little action on it. And suddenly that game you are already going to watch has a little more juice. If you're new to my bookie, they're also giving you a little protection on that first wager with the bet back bonus. Just sign up using promo code CFB2026. Like college football, 2026, opt into that bet back bonus and make your first play. If that wager loses, you get it back.

28:44College football is here. The board is loaded and there's finally something to bet on every Saturday again. Get in on the action with my bookie. Bet on anything, anytime, anywhere. Okay.