36: Breakthroughs in military technology: Lessons from history and future implications

Artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize warfare and reshape geopolitics. Professor Andrew Wilson, professor of Strategy at the US Naval War College, explores the transformative power of military technology throughout history and its implications for the future.

In this episode of Onward, host and Fundrise CEO Ben Miller and Professor Andrew Wilson explore how technological advancements not only transform warfare but also reshape political, social, and economic landscapes. Seemingly small technological advancements (especially those in the military realm) often have profound and lasting effects on societal structures and political dynamics.

"Victory smiles up those who anticipate changes in the character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after the changes occur."
 –Italian Air Power Theorist, General Giulio Douhet

Ben and Professor Wilson illustrate this by examining historical breakthroughs such as the stirrup, which led to the rise of feudalism in medieval Europe, and the Greek trireme, which fostered Athenian democracy and economic expansion. The discussion also highlights society’s transition from bronze to iron weaponry, which democratized military power by making effective weapons more accessible, thereby altering the balance of power in ancient civilizations.

Moving to the present day, the conversation addresses the ongoing revolution in military technology, particularly focusing on AI and autonomous weapon systems. Professor Wilson and Ben discuss modern technologies’ potential to either democratize or centralize military power, depending on their cost to manufacture. This episode also explores China's military modernization efforts, emphasizing the strategic focus and investment in emerging technologies. Professor Wilson underscores the importance of maintaining an innovative edge and strategic flexibility to navigate the complex relationship between the United States and China, while also stressing the need for clear communication to avoid the so-called Thucydides Trap, where rising powers and status quo powers are potentially destined for conflict.

Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at [email protected]. 

Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, Editorial Director of the Economic Innovation Group and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast).

Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada. 

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