Bad feeling, weak internals, confidence collapse, Nvidia breaking out | WAYT?

0:00Yeah, here we are. You asked for the best. I brought you the very best. Ladies and gentlemen, I got a short kid Matt here today. Matt, I feel like everybody left me this week except for you. I never leaving you. That's it. I got I got a pack of that. I got Michael Batnik on a flight to Austin right now. Shout to Michael. Nicole is in Paris living out her shopping fantasies. Right. Ladies and gentlemen, we got John Grayson in the background controlling the show tonight. John's going to crush it for us because we have charts on charts

1:00on charts. For those of you listening on Spotify, two things. Number one, just click the video button and you can watch or don't worry about it because whatever is on the screen that you can't see, we're going to make sure you understand the points that we're making. And tonight we are going to bury you guys in insights. It's going to be unbelievable. All right. So first things first, let's pay the bills. Huge thanks to our sponsor, Betterment Advisor Solutions. The longer you wait to break away, the longer someone else is building the relationship that should be yours. Betterment Advisor Solutions gets you independent faster because someday is too far away. Starting your own RIA can be a lot until you have the right partner behind you. Betterment pairs you with transition specialists who've done this before. So the move is simple, not stressful. You get a tech staff built to scale with you so you won't quickly outgrow it. You get to offer an experience that a million customers already love and you get a full operating platform to run your

2:03practice on. Making it easier to go from idea to independence fast. A trusted brand, platform built for growth and specialist by your side the whole time. That's how Betterment Advisor Solutions helps you break away better than Bill Joff from today. Get started at betterment.com slash advisors. Today's show is also brought to you by Janus Henderson. At Janus Henderson Investors, we believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your mission and our vision. Always working in perfect harmony to find the right investment opportunities. Janus Henderson Investors investing in a brighter future together. Visit JanusHenderson.com. All right. I do want to say a couple of quick halos in the chat. I got Benjamin Lupo back Shepans this year. He gave me the the strong arm emoji feeling that Luis J.B. Braw, where's Michael? I just told you pay attention. I'll be back soon. What is this? Josh, when are the breeds coming out?

3:06No, it's not a transplant. This is my literal hair thanks to Dr. Keith Shinebloom of Shinebloom Medical. I'm actually I'm growing this. Viv Grebel's is here. KPS Fred says can't wait till Josh has a man bond. It's coming my friend any day now. All right. All right. So, chart, let's start here. Invidia looks like it wants to bring I should let me phrase this. Let me phrase this correctly. Invidia looks like it wants to break out. A couple of things struck me about the recent trading and activity in in video. Let's just do the technical chart. Let's jump right to that. So, I'm just going to narrate what I see here. This is a stock that had a massive run up in May when all of its customers, the hyperscalers were reporting not only earnings but forward guidance and their CAPX plans. Basically, they ratified what we all already know, which is that not only

4:11are they spending this coming quarter and if the rest of the year, but as far as the eye can see because the investments they've already made demand that they continue to spend. We've talked at length about replacement cycles and you know you build the data center 50% of the expenses the chips. Invidia, although there are other chips available for data centers, there are other components, there are ASICs, there are CPUs. The GPU clusters are still going to be the workhorses for the data centers for as far as the eye can see and back to the chart. So, basically, ran up in May as those reports were coming out and then we sort of had like, I think, a pretty orderly pullback to the 200 day moving average, which at that time was 199-200, bounced off at that level twice, came right back into the 200s and then has been biting its time, pretty much consolidating

5:11below that 235 breakout level. Today, the stock closed around 228 and the longer it knocks on that 23235 breakout level, the longer that testing process takes place, the more powerful I think the eventual breakout would be. Just add a glance, what are your thoughts on the technicals for Nvidia? So, when I look at the chart, I see an ascending 50 day moving average, ascending 200 day moving average. We dipped right below the 50 day and surge right back up after Muse came out and shocked immediately. I think it's a great price reaction to that news. And obviously, we'll talk about the buyback and we'll get into that and what that means for the stock. I have thoughts there. But just purely on the chart, if you hid the name, this is a buy to me. Last thing on the chart, that bottom pane is relative strength, RSI. We're not going to get into

6:11the calculation that goes into it. But, effectively, what we're looking at is momentum for the stock relative. And people, it's not science. People have this shorthand where they're like, okay, 60s is perfect. When you have a stock making the new high, you want relative strength to be at least in the 60s, which tells you momentum is confirming the move. And then people think about 70 plus as sort of overbought. It's a technical term. It's not overbought. I feel like it went up too much. They will look at a momentum reading at 72, 74, 76 and say, okay, not a great entry point. This thing has to cool off. We're at 58. I can't think of a bet. If in fact, this stock is going to make a new high, I can't think of a better momentum reading to go along with that than an RSI moving from the high 50s into the 60s. It just gives you so much space for that eventual breakout to take place.

7:15You follow me on that? Yeah, I'm following you. And I'm looking at the volume too. It's not like it's a super low volume move. I'm always looking at RSI divergence. So when the stock is making a high and the RSI is not making a high, that is always something that I'm looking to see. Hold on a second. Why isn't momentum confirming the move? But here, you see a lot of relative strength in name. Again, purely based just on the chart. It looks like it's ready. Yeah, and we don't have that divergence. We have confirmation. And at a new high, if we can get RSI coming along for the ride, which obviously would probably happen if it really breaks out with conviction, like that's what technicians are waiting for. They're looking for those moments. I also want to show a 10-year chart, Matt. So this is just price. And I pulled out, there's no volume, there's no moving averages, there's no bullshit. So people like, oh, Nvidia's boring or the stock doesn't poke the meme where you're poking it with a stick, do something. Guys,

8:18this like split adjusted, this was a $10 stock at the beginning of 2023. It's $2.28, like, relax. Give it a minute. Right, right. And the insane thing is that if I charted the 4P ratio on top of this, it would literally be making 2016 lows. And I know we could talk about forward earnings and the estimates being wrong. And we can speculate on that. But I went back and looked, the actual forward earnings tend to be very close to the actuals. And it's not my opinion. It just is what it is. This is a company that this fiscal year is going to do something like $96 or $98 billion in free cash flow. Next year, it could be $360 billion in free cash flow on $680 billion in revenue. Again, not just based on the company's own guidance, but based on the capex plans and

9:20Nvidia's share of that capex spend that we're getting from 50 other sources. And you think about you think about a company that is growing earnings at this rate. It would be shocking if the earnings multiple were going up. If it were flat, it would be understandable. It's actually plunging the multiple on the earnings. And let's go back to the buyback thing. So Matt, you have a chart here. Tell us what's going on. All right, guys. So Nvidia announced a $150 billion buyback. Jensen dropped this two weeks after Dario came out and said to slow the pace. So like LOL, he essentially turned around and said, I'll do the opposite. And so there's some assumptions baked in here. But let's just say Nvidia's price stays flat for the next year and a half. I've got to make it simple when I'm doing the chart. So it stays flat. If you take $150 billion and you add the $85 billion that it already has in its buyback plan to get $235 billion of buybacks through Q1,

10:202028. So that would theoretically reduce the shares by 4.3%. And I guess we could chart off. Like if you just went down the laundry list of things that you would want to see as an Nvidia bull as a market bull as an AI bull, I think at the top would be the most important CO in the world. At the most important company in the world saying, screw slowing, let's buy back $150 billion of stock. I'm not going to go speculate buying a company. Let's use the capital to reduce our share count. Yeah, turn down for what? So most important CEO, I think, is accurate at the present moment. There's nobody more important and also, but he's not important and then hiding in a bunker. Sky is literally everywhere. He's popping on podcasts. Like he's, I saw the seating chart for the AI dinner or meeting or whatever it was at the White House. He was next to Trump. Like think about all the people that were there that theoretically could have been next to Trump.

11:23It's gents and one. Right. And he knows how to manage the relationship. It's like how Tim Cook was. You know, he knows what he's doing. And I think that it's overall, you want the administration on your side. It's like a double thumbs up. You need that. Yeah, he's a he's a pop on top of being a genius and out innovating everyone and seeing the machine learning trend turn into augmented reality, turn into virtual reality, turn into oh wait, actually we should be using these for LLMs and AI. Like having done all of that in his time since founding the company, nobody, I don't think people should be second guessing his instincts, his public statements, scrutinizing his capital allocation. One of the big things is like, oh, in videos like giving money to their customers and then the customers are turning around and buying more chips with that. It's, well, what do you want him to do? Did you hear the number? I just trotted out $360 billion in cash flow, potentially over the next year. You want him to throw pizza parties

12:32for his employees. Like what? You want him to buy back $500 billion worth of stock between now in 2030? I mean, he might, it's possible if margins hold up and revenue continues to grow. But like, he's supposed to be making these investments since the ecosystem. And George E.D. in the chat is saying, now he sucks up to the orange men. It's not about that. It's what's best for the shareholders. He needs legislation on his side to do what he wants to do. And is that something that's baked into the price sure? Can that change? Absolutely. But right now, he's managing the relationship well. It's another reason why you want to bet on Johnson. I mean, he's a complete, he's a bett ass. Yeah, it's a, a sucks up to the orange man or understands that Trump is a mercantilist. So, this is very important, actually, for the audience. It's not fascism. It's not really capitalism the way the Trump administration thinks about the intersection of government and business. It's mercantilism. And for any of you who remember

13:37social studies in high school, mercantilism is an economic system where companies are given a high degree of free reign so long as their aims are in concert with what the government wants. And obviously, the most prominent examples of that are things like the, the, the Dutch East India Company, the South Sea Company. And I know some of these didn't then well. But like, just this idea of like, yes, we're going to allow corporations, what they used to call joint stock companies, to pursue their goals of dominating trade around the world and, and producing profits for their shareholders. But those things have to work hand in hand with what the government wants. In the case of the Trump administration, they want massive GDP growth. They want to ensure industries that are currently manufacturing or hosting their facilities outside of the United States. They want the first hiring inclination to be toward hiring people right here at home,

14:41rather than somewhere else. Like that's, that's the aim of the Trump administration and best interest and like all of their policies. And so, Jensen has found the way, like Tim Cook before him, to ingratiate himself with the administration and say, okay, I get it. You want to build fabs here. You want to make semiconductors here. You want, um, USAI to dominate the world. And not Chinese AI, of course, who wouldn't want that like, okay, we can, we can do business. We can work that way. That's mercantilism. That's the, the nature of the administration. I'm not telling you it's good. It's bad. I'm just explaining to you the mindset. If you're a shareholder of Nvidia, what do you want? I'm the fucking be an enemy of, of the people who control both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court, the military, like, are you, are, are you kidding yourself? Like this is about making money in today's day and age. This is how you make money. It'll change. This is where we are. He's aligning with the administration. They want it. Okay, they need it. They need to place jobs in, in areas around the country. And he's helping with that. Nvidia's trailing 12 month operating earnings. Okay, forget the

15:46private investments. Okay, the operating earnings are now above apples. It's legitimate actual earnings. These are not estimates. This happened over the past 12 months. Right. Right. So can we talk about treasuries? Let's go. Let's go. Okay. So yields are ripping higher. It feels like literally every day. I brought this chart 75% of the last 24 trading days saw higher 10 year yield. I don't know if you feel this way, Josh, but like I check every day, the CNBC 10 year yield. Explain that one more time. Okay. So all right, 18 out of the last 24 trading days, the 10 year yield had a one day change that was positive. So it's almost it's going up almost all the time. Almost all the time. And also by the way, this has happened 11 times since 1965. I went back and counted. It doesn't happen very often. Okay, I built the table. I didn't add it. I can paraphrase it. The idea is what happens to yields

16:48after? And I could tell you the 80% after they march higher to like like this often on a daily basis. Yes, correct. When that happens, 80% of the time over the next 12 months, you see yields that are lower. And obviously we've lived since 1965. We did have a run up in yields, but we've lived in like a descending yield environment for a long time. So you know, there's a caveat there. But it's like a 90 basis points on average that the 10 year yield falls one year after you have this many updates in the 10 year yield. And all right, so then my question is, why is this happening? And I think I found at least part of the reason why in this odd lots episode, John, can we play this? Foreign central banks have had all that they need and they're not buying more. And it's mostly domestic discretionary investors that are being asked to take this additional supply and they just need more compensation. So that's Darrell Duffy, he's a professor of finance and

17:50Stanford. We hope that's the reason why. Okay, that would be the best, right? Like that would be the brigh of all the reasons people are floating. That one would be the best case scenario. It's just an asset allocation thing. It's the idea that foreign central banks own too many treasuries. So there's no bid from them. Who's the next buyer? The next buyer is a pension fund or an endowment or macro hedge fund. But how are they going to explain away the macro hedge fund to their clients that they just, you know, slide a 10 billion dollars of 10-year treasury on their balance sheet when Nvidia just announced a 150 billion dollar buyback. It's like, you know, that's not why we're paying you. And so, you know, treasuries, it's a stretch to say they've gone no bid. But there's just according to Darrell not is not enough buyers in the system at this level. They would require higher yields. So at your denny is a friend of the show we've had him on recently and he's the guy that coined the term bond vigilantes. I think he did that in the 80s or the 90s or something crazy like that.

18:51But the idea of bond vigilantes is they are enforcing discipline on the treasury by refusing to show up at the auctions at prevailing rates. And so like rates go higher because they just, they refuse to buy because they don't like how we're running our budget or they don't like the deficit or they think there are like insurmountable political problems that are going to introduce potentially credit risk to the, he's not saying that's what's happening now. Ed is pretty constructive. He still thinks his roaring 2020s decade is going to end to the upside for the economy and stocks. But he was kind of this, I think this is over the weekend. He kind of like, all right, here are all the reasons why we're seeing the rates climb to the extent that they are like Matt showed in his chart. And he's talking about like corporate debt issuance has doubled in a year and we were accustomed

19:52to a world where corporations were basically funding everything out of cash flow, especially on the AI cap excite. And now they're selling tons of bonds. That becomes competition for the US treasury at roughly equal rates, not equal risk, but like all things being considered if you can buy alphabet paper at a 5% yield or slightly higher, right? It's a better option. So there's a lot of that. There's a whole thing with the Japanese unwinding their negative interest rate policy. And you know, a lot of people were doing this carry trade where they would borrow in yen terms and then go around the world and reinvest that money at higher rates as the yen appreciates and the bond yield in Japan goes positive. It makes it less appealing to pull that carry trade off where you see people unwinding. So that's like a mechanical thing that US investors don't pay any attention to, but it could be part of like what's driving yield tire. That's that less incremental

20:55buying from overseas that the professor was talking about. So there's like, it's like, you have a play the game clue when you were a kid. It's like a who done it and it's like, well, who did it in what room and what was the murder weapon? There's a lot of that going on and probably like the truth is some mixture of all those things. I know you wanted to throw inflation into that mix. Yeah, I think I mean, yeah, yeah, not that I know, not that we can pinpoint the specific reason, but we can pinpoint what it is not. And that is inflation expectations ripping higher. You can see there's it's a finance term. Inflation break events are well anchored. Okay. So the idea here is that if you see the break even inflation rate surging higher, that is going to filter into the the nominal 10 year yield. What we see on the screen when we type in 10 year yield. Okay. The reason for the rise in interest rates is not coming from this expectation that inflation is going to surcharge higher. Right. So that would be another nightmare scenario that like the

21:59treasury is ripping in response to this like insurmountable inflation problem that we can't get control over. And yes, it's true. Like oil prices are elevated. I don't know if people realize we're like in month four of a war overseas. And literally the war is now over the passage of oil. We don't subsist on Iranian oil, but like it is an irrelevant getting oil from the Arabian Peninsula through the straight-up arm lose is relevant to the global prices, which have a read through into WTI crude, et cetera, et cetera. So like, yeah, there's like an inflation issue, but it's based on a war. And not like saying we're going to get a real ceasefire. But oil is flowing through the straight-up arm lose again. It's not ideal, but it's not as bad as it was. And you're saying that it's inevitably temporary. We theoretically,

23:01it's something that you can change. It could change the worst. Show me this last 10-year-old. All right, this last chart on this. So what I'm doing here is I'm taking the 10-year yield, the nominal yield, and I'm subtracting the 10-year break-even inflation rate. This is hitting highs going back all the way to 2008. So there is a legitimate alternative to four investors when they're looking at, okay, let's say they're, we can chart off. Let's say theoretically, they are withdrawing 4% of their portfolio, their retirement. Their financial advisor says, hey, look, you know, you could get a legitimate 2.85% real yield after inflation. That's an alternative. And this is filtering in at least at some point to valuations in the stock market. So if we want to flash the next chart, John. So Josh, you have me make this. This is different buckets of the 10-year treasury yield. And then the median 4P for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

24:02And as you said, the breaking point is 7%. What is the, in other words, what is the breaking point for stocks where the yields get so high that people's next $50,000 they deposit into their account? Like more of that is going into bonds and less than the stocks and we feel that on mass. Like that's the, that's the question that we're trying to answer. And I saw somebody do this with the S&P. So I asked Matt, show me that with the Nasdaq, which increasingly is becoming like the focal point of the stock market and frankly, the driver of almost everything. All right, now let's put that chart back up. So tell us what your conclusions are. The conclusions here are, all you have to focus on are the two bars all the way to the right. And you see the above 7% bars. Above 7%. So above 7% yields, the S&P 500 median 4P is 13.6 times, the Nasdaq 100 is 12.6 times. That is the lowest among any other bucket from 0% all the way through 7%.

25:07You know what's interesting? You would think, given the media's hysteria about rate hikes, that like the best PE ratios we get for stocks are at a zero, are at a zero percent or close to zero percent yield for bonds. But that's not actually how it works. Chart back up. When we have zero to 3% on the 10 year, like not always, but it's usually because we're responding to some sort of like economic problem. Like zero to 3% became normal for 15 years after the great financial crisis, but it's not actually normal. And that is not actually where you get the best multiples for stocks necessarily. It looks like 3 to 7 is a better sweet spot for the Nasdaq at least just eyeballing it than 0% to 3%. Well, at 3 to 7, you're actually, you have an alternative. You have to be disciplined about your

26:10capital where it goes. And so investors might actually assign a higher multiple because the companies have to think they can't speculate. They can't just, you know, they have, there's actual yields that you can compare to versus at zero, you know, you could go out and speculate all you want. 3 to 7 investors are assigning a higher 4P because there's discipline involved. The thing I want to leave people with as we switch out of this topic is that 5% is not the breaking point. So I mean, it's for somebody that's been in the markets for 30 years, you wouldn't have to say that out loud. But for somebody that started investing sometime after 2020, and they've never seen rates really do this outside of 21 and 22 when the Fed was aggressively fighting inflation. 5% on a 10 year treasury is not a breaking point for multiples or for the stock market. And I understand like there, if you haven't really seen this, you know, you can kind of be like,

27:14whoa, rates would just 3 and now they're 5. It's really not historically not that abnormal. Right. Right. All right. Let's do this thing from Alliance Bernstein. So Alliance Bernstein has a guy named Enigo Fraser Jenkins who confession, I've reached out to. He doesn't seem to be at all interested in talking to me, but that's okay. I don't agree with a lot of stuff that he does. Like I think he was one of the guys saying index investing is is Marxism. But every time he drops something, well, not every time, a lot of times he drops a piece that grab a lot of people's attention. He's very thoughtful, very well written. And last week he put this thing out called the Everything Trade. And I just want to give people the conclusion because we're not going to go through everything in there and then Matt Poltz some stuff out of here that's worth spending a second on. The big idea here is that, and this is not a bearish note, and this is not a sell everything note. The core argument is that AI's appetite for capital has now gotten so large that it is tying

28:20together equities, credit, the dollar, and foreign flows. And it's basically made everything into all one big bet or one big trade. And what he's saying is that makes it harder for an investor to diversify away from AI risk. So they're keeping their equity overweight and they're overweight on the US intact. And they actually said calling the top is pointless. But the point of the note is that portfolios urgently need to hold up in case this whole AI freight train stalls, whether that happens through choppy returns going forward or a big crash. And it's increasingly harder to do that. And you know a lot of this is we talked about this. Big tech was paying for their investments out of free cash flow. Free cash flow is now zero in their borrowing, which is not necessarily negative. I mean it might be. But that debt is flooding the bond markets. If you want to own a plain vanilla bond fund, you're quietly buying yourself more AI exposure, whether you mean to or not.

29:25Foreign investors are pouring money into US stocks. So if you are investing in foreign currencies or foreign markets or foreign companies, you're putting on that shadow exposure to US AI. The buy back angle corporations were the biggest buyers of US stocks for 20 years via share repurchases. Now AI is eating up a lot of that cash. Some companies are still doing both. But it's another factor that removes a layer of support from stocks and adds to potential volatility. So they conclude by saying healthcare and energy are two sectors that investors have abandoned. Plus gold, maybe value stocks, maybe the Japanese yen, and maybe some actively managed bonds versus passive. Those could be the portfolio hedges for the modern era. And I just thought it was really thoughtful. What were your takeaways? I thought it was very thoughtful. It took me a minute

30:27to get through honestly. It's dense, but it was very thoughtful. It made sense. If we could throw up the first chart here, I pulled two from the piece. If I could show you two as a summary, it would be these two. We're looking at expected sources of funding for the AI CapEx build out between 2026 and 2028. Where's the money coming from for all of this? This is not a pie chart. You're seeing the absolute levels here. The $1.5 trillion is coming from equity capital. That's the biggest segment of funding. And then there's everything else. Companies take their cash and plowing it into AI plus maybe selling additional stock in the form of a secondary. It's money the company theoretically has. So 45%, this is not a pie chart, but imagine. 45% is from equity capital. And the rest is everything else. So private credit, investment grade, bonds, ABS, CNBS, high yield and loans. I have a question for you, Josh. When you look at

31:31a breakdown of 45% equity capital and the rest being from private credit and debt, is that a prudent level of debt versus equity? Or is that too much debt? So I can't answer that because I don't think we've ever seen an opportunity set this large. It might be the right amount. It may turn out that people are under investing. Like I'm looking at the news that OpenAI just made today with their dots product, which is going to be like an enterprise version of Muse. So they're actually going to sell this to their premium business customers before they're going to release this on regular chat GPT. But it's like an incredible increase in capability for AI agents. And I guess they're calling them dots and they're saying like these things can reason on their own. They don't need to check

32:34in with you every second. They'll ask you permission to access things when they need to. But like completing multi-step projects in the background, like what will corporate customers be willing to pay for that? Not just this year, but for the next 30 years. I don't know. Theoretically could be unlimited. So like when we're looking at product launches like that, I don't know what the right amount of debt for companies to take on in order to invest in this technology is. We'll know in five years I guess. Well the good thing for the debt holders and John let's skip one of these charts and go to the next one. The good thing that debt holders is that if you look at the credit default swaps on the different bonds for these hyperscalers, they are not blowing out. They are flat. In some cases they are actually trading below. Hire is worse. This is like golf. Yeah. Hire is bad. You don't want to see a blot. You can see meta tried, but it's kind of stabilizing. We can chart off. And so I think overall the takeaway

33:36of the piece is that investors in outside of equities are getting exposure to AI even though they might not realize it. And as you're thinking about your exposure, be aware of that. Okay. We're going to talk about stock market breadth. This is one of the other big topics of the week. People are going crazy on this. Brett is interesting. Like most of the time it doesn't matter because it's not a new stream in other direction. And obviously people always feel good when the market is at a high and breadth is at or near a high. Like you'll hear people cite the advance decline line or they'll try to out the equal weight S&P to show that it's not just the max seven, but like a lot of stocks are making highs. Like there's all different ways to look at breadth. And Matt, I know this is your topic, but I actually want to set you up. So barren's got everybody talking about breadth this weekend and Monday. Even the non technicians, they did a piece citing that five stocks have contributed 93% of the S&P 500 gains since July. That's like

34:44sort of notable. You can guess what they are. Microsoft is 181 points of the benchmarks 330 point advance since since the end of July. Meta, Apple, Alphabet and video. No shit. The percentage of constituents trading above their 200 moving average has now fallen from 73% to 51%, which is a notable deterioration while the index is like one or two percent off the highs. I sort of agree with that. And just anecdotally, all of you guys, if you look at your brokerage accounts, you would probably guess that breadth has fallen off to that degree. Just by like the number of stocks you have that felt like they were green all summer and now they're red. And what happened to the great, what were they calling it? The great broadening, which was the theme of the summer. It seems to like that. I was calling it that. Yeah. Matt, take over. Tell us what's going on.

35:45Okay. Well, okay, before we get into it. And also, by the way, I'm not here to poopoo the breadth, right? Like I get it. It's, breadth has fallen and I acknowledge that. But I'm trying to find the nuance and the numbers, presences of the audience, showing the things that they're not seeing as you're doing what Michael, you're doing exactly what Michael would do if if if he were on the show tonight. All right, I love it. We need this. Okay, that's big shoes to fill. All right, so let's first throw up this big new Michael, this quote from Michael. So Michael slacked me this this morning. He said, hey, chart kid, throw this on the show. I want people to know my thought here. So he says, I love the breath wash out. The bearish case for an S&P catchdown is obvious and intuitive. But almost every time we've seen something like this in the last decade, it's been a great buying opportunity. That's the one. He's right. So, all right, so Michael is exactly right. And I made a joke on, on our internal slack. I said, I used to care about breadth, but then I realized I like money. This is like, I laughed at that. Yeah. Well, because this is like one of the things, one of the most

36:46prominent ways the bears have tricked you out of your holdings out of your portfolio is they've put up these periodically. This happens where five stocks are making highs and everything else is falling. And they say, you see, and the like the assumption is or what they're trying to convince you is about to happen is a catchdown that the index is going to fall to match what the majority of its constituents are doing. But the thing is, in the last 10 years, it's been the opposite resolution pretty much every time to catch up. So the breadth metrics fall and everyone gets nervous and then all of a sudden, boom, like you get a broadening trade and they catch back up to the AI trade. And it's like, oh, I can't believe I sold stocks because of market internals again. So, it doesn't mean every single time it works this way forever, but Michael is right. This has been

37:47the history. Right. And I'm kind of asking this rhetorically. But if you think about what you constantly bring up is like the money has to come from somewhere. So if Muse launches in the Mag 7 rally, the money has to come from somewhere. So what are people selling? They're selling staples. Why would I want to own a Kraft Heinz company when I could own and video after a $150 billion buyback? So- They're fairly selling treasuries. Right. And so to verify Michael's exuberance, we have a tweet from Tom McClellan. And so Michael's right. You're looking at new lows in the New York stock in the NIC on the bottom. And new lows surge. New lows surging tend to correspond with S&P 500 bottoms. It's just it's there in the data. This is by the case- It's the opposite right now. It doesn't make sense. Right. Well, it's like the beauty of indexing. We can talk about it at knowledge of people know.

38:53But it's the beauty of indexing. The weightings change. It finds the flows. It's a really a beautiful thing for investors. Put that chart back up. I mean, this is starting to look scary, though. I mean, the chart is showing three years. Or two years. It's like going back to 2024. But it's a big it is a big spike in New York stock exchange new lows. And we're going to I know we get into like what's in that? What are the what are the stocks or what are the sectors? We'll do that in a second. But like it sort of is starting to become notable. Yes, absolutely. You cannot just pass it off. I agree. I agree. You cannot just pass it off. People need to be aware of this. Okay. Let's talk about where the breath is actually coming from, the negative breath. And so John, if you want to throw up our large cap breath dashboard. Okay. Here you're seeing all the S&P 500 sectors based on their breath score. Okay. This is something that we made in house internally. And so we're showing things like percentages of stocks above different moving averages. The percent

39:54of percentage of stocks making new highs, new lows, et cetera, et cetera, by sector. Okay. But where I want you to focus because there's a lot of data here. Okay. Where I want you to focus is at the bottom here utilities. Okay. So utilities three percent. I like how you did that. I like how you did that. Three percent of utilities are trading above the 50 day moving average. All right. Let's throw up. Next one is staples. Twenty seven percent of stocks within staples are above the 50 day. These are horrible metrics. Breath in these defensive areas is terrible. And understand these are defensive sectors. Right. Now let's go to the top. And let's look at tech. Okay. This is arguably the most important sector to the market. Maybe financials a close second. You need financials in bull market. But tech has 66% of stocks trading above the 50 day moving average. 73% are above the 200 day. 10% of these stocks just made new four week lows. So again, I'm not and we could chart off. I'm not poo pooing this. I just think that if you dig in, it is nuanced. Well, it is and chart

41:00back on. Staples and utilities are not just considered defensive. They're also interest rate sensitive. The primary allure of these stocks at least historically has been their dividend yields. And so we talk about higher treasury bond yields representing competition for the stock market. This is the area the stock market they're competing with. And people who say, should I I'm making these numbers up? Should I take a three percent dividend from Johnson and Johnson from that's a pharma? Should I take a three percent dividend from a company that sells catch up and mustard? Right. Or should I take a five percent interest rate from the federal government? And so unless you have reason to believe that you're going to get a good total return because you know the the catch up and mustard company stock is going to go up 15% fuck it. Give me the five percent on the bonds. And so I think that partly explains the weakness

42:06in staples and utilities and you didn't show this but the third worst sector is real estate. So you know also 0% of real estate stocks are above their 50 day. This is competition from treasury bonds because real estate is interest rate sensitive and yield sensitive sector. That's the buyers of those stocks historically have been looking for like the return return of capital in the form of an interest rate or a dividend. Absolutely. Let's let's look at this differently. Let's look at over time since September 2025 the S&P 500 expansion of new 52-week lows. So this is the percentage of stocks within the S&P 500 all 11 sectors and how what percent of those stocks are making new 52-week lows. So again this is not nothing. There's a recent expansion here but now I want to show you the next chart which is two of the most offensive sectors in the market and you only have at its tech and financials and you only have one percent of tech stocks making new 52-week

43:10lows. You have literally zero financials making new 52-week lows. All right this is so important. I'm not like a sector obsessive where like I view the market through the prism of like because it's gotten so hard to categorize a lot of really big and important companies. What sector is Tesla belonging? I don't really know anymore. It was a car company that's now making robots. What like where do you put SpaceX? Is it industrial? Is it tech? Is it communications? It could be all of those things or none of them. Like so I don't get crazy with sector classification because of how muddled things have gotten but Matt's point here is key. If I told you that financials and tech have no stocks making 52-week lows which is what we just showed that should make you feel a lot better about the headline number of the the overall number of stocks making new lows or the percentage forget about that which stocks we're showing you like the most sensitive important

44:18companies to the growth story for the economy financials and tech there were no lows in sight. It could change we're telling you this is a snapshot right now that's pretty much what you'd want to see if you want to be constructive and stable-ish. Right and we have one more here John and we can throw up and this is the new lows and utilities and staples. So utilities 45% of utilities stocks are making new 52-week lows and 15% of the staples are making new 52-week lows. I don't have the names right now here but the idea is if you wanted to get bearish on the market you would probably want to see the stocks in these sectors actually catching some sort of a bid right now and they're getting hammered and so I'm not like investors are choosing what they want right now and that's rotation which is bullish. Okay now all right so we did enough coping and explaining away the internals and I agree with all that but I do have to introduce a little bit of negativity here and not that I'm believing in this but this is what people are

45:22starting to say and notice and talk about and you know I think the mark of intelligence is being able to balance two opposing thoughts in your mind at the same time. The conference board put out their consumer confidence survey which has been falling for years and really is not a great signal for the stock market but it's at extremes like it is something that people are going to start to take notice of like I don't care about the monthly I want you guys to observe the trend. We have just slammed down to a 12-year low the overall index just fell 6.7 points to 81.9 which is the lowest level since 2014 that is reflecting drop this is Axios reflecting drops in both survey respondents assessment of current conditions and their outlook for the future. They are referencing prices in the economy again the high cost of goods and services oil and gas in particular

46:23which hit new highs and then they start talking about politics and trade and employment you know they're talking about Palestine and all kinds of shit that has nothing to do with anything but the fact remains this is a horrible moment for consumer confidence and it could change maybe like the midterms come and go and all the political stuff comes down and people feel a little bit better because the labor picture is great. It really I know that not everybody is happy but like for the most part this long into an expansion it's pretty good so it's it's a lot of headline stuff that is not economic but it's making people just feel pessimistic and I mentioned we're at war we don't have to do that whole thing again but basically the setup here Matt is you have narrowing breadth which we just spent 20 minutes on you have an air pocket of a few weeks before earning season right we're not going to get those great reports from KLA and lamb research and all the stuff that

47:26we're looking forward to it's going to be a minute not to mention you have the typical October surprise seasonality September is not a great month for stocks October can be a good month historically but like seasonally but it's also been a month where like crazy things have happened without rehashing the whole litany of 1929 and 1987 and the tarp votes during the financial crisis and Lehman Brothers and all this stuff like it's you know people have like a little bit of muscle memory around October being a wild time I want to show you the breadth from the perspective of Barclays they have this quantitative team they call them the bets guys and I thought this was interesting so they're showing similar to you cumular VNYSE bread falling by 53 minus 5300 over the past 21 trading days they screened for instances in history since 2004 where this has happened

48:27and they point out that the S&P on average has fallen 9.6% at the same time today the S&P has done nothing the only precedent to today is October 2014 which saw a similar negative price bread divergence and that resulted in the S&P falling by more than 5% in the subsequent week Barclays is writing this research for people that are putting on trades that they are looking for immediate gratification for so just giving you that context the second chart I'll have you react after this they're showing the combined New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq stocks trading at a 52 week high versus those trading at a 52 week low is at the same level as the nadir of the Iran war back in March this is when there was like Max Fier about the the attack on Iran for context since 1990 SPX the S&P has currently fallen by an average of 670

49:27basis points when this has been the case historically if we screened for instances where the S&P was unchanged with this number of stocks making a 52 week low the average peak to trough drawn out over the next 21 days is minus 520 basis points so historically this does lead to an eventual drop in the market what do you think about that yeah I think that's the historical analog we are also living through a period where this is the Teflon market a truly what is going to bring stocks down and you know like even this there's literally like you said 90% since what was it June have been contributed by the mag 7 the rally in the S&P 500 yeah that that's crazy that's nuts like I want to sell pausing that for a second that's that's crazy but it truly is like if you show me just if you show me just to be throw back up John just the red line on this chart so just the breath I would guess that the market is in a 20% drawdown yeah and it's yeah that's what it's consistent that's

50:30what it's consistent with a minimum of seven percent from the highs and usually worse and it's just it hasn't happened yet you ask me like what stocks are even going down or I mean like why don't the top of my head these are like very specific stories mortgage stocks anything related to like borrowing to buy a house of course mortgage rates were 7% on their way to eight of course those stocks are down ride share again very specific uber and lyft look like shit they're both down year to date they're down over 12 months these are pretty substantial drawdowns in these stocks I'm personally long uber so I'm feeling it myself but like when you look at like what stocks were at the lows in addition to the staples and the utilities it's explicable it's not like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are making 50-week lows like that's such a different story to me I'm looking at

51:31builder first source right now home builder down to 45% year to date yeah it's like and also we were talking about lower rates before a wash the entire narrative has flipped right we're talking about there's going to be this pressure how many cuts how many cuts on tired yeah but also now imagine if we had reality at that time and you you knew that the picture was going to flip and it was now cuts you wouldn't you guess that the market would be down 15% I would have it's okay even with earnings yeah but so you're so you're right the correct interpretation is look how many things have gone wrong or flipped and look at how stocks are acting and the right move is to take your signal from the resilience of the market not extrapolate out all these negative stories like how much worse can they get but I'm going to throw one more on you or I just postponed its IPO not to any specific not like I will do it tomorrow like that

52:36I think there's a 11 billion dollar evaluation or something and they were going to go this week and well actually I don't even know what the valuation was yeah 11 billion was last year's funding round I say yes they were hoping for at least somewhere over that like some premium to the last funding round here's the journal or is the black ring the people wear that reports like your health metrics back to your phone and I I don't like dislike the product I don't know anything about it you know is it so highly likely to have me wearing a fucking onion ring around my finger then an aura personally but don't don't take that to mean anything I want to I want to just say first of all rooting for it I hope it goes public I will not be buying this I'm doing this a long time I have never seen anyone make money from buying a health tech kind of gadget IPO it just it's just like it just it's a especially when it's one product but um

53:40you have Peloton you have GoPro you have Fitbit Soul cycle I was here for all of it they all go to zero right like they like GoPro effectively went to zero actually so GoPro is a good case in point not that it's a direct comparison to aura but it's like for outdoor like physical activity enthusiasts revenue peaked in 2015 at 1.6 billion and it got public in 2013 it was a disaster from day one it opened that it opened that a ridiculous premium in like a hundred went to basically zero um revenue peaked in 2015 a year after it went public at 1.6 billion then it hit 651 million last year it's stock price went from 50 or 60 in mid 2015 to 60 cents on September 1st this year announced they're merging with an optical

54:42photonics company of course um they're getting a dollar for tuning cash for that stock and a tiny amount of equity in the new company like that's how these things end we're not going to talk about Peloton and Fitbit and all this bullshit I was at the exchange though yeah I guess we are I was at the exchange when Fitbit went public they erected a giant Trojan horse-sized treadmill in front of the New York Stock Exchange on Broad Street and they had like 50 guys running on it with Fitbits on zero you know what I mean like it's down 95% since it IPO I don't understand yeah town sports which was like New York sports club Philadelphia sports club like gone ballies total fitness goodbye sole cycle is a joke that tells itself wait watchers on its way to zero in the age of Chatchee PT uh let me show you this chart here's planet fitness

55:43I'm not going to say it's zero I don't know anything about the company I just know the better bets are Americans staying uh sedentary and fat like though the better long term bett is McDonald's and Altria and uh Netflix is like like to me like those are those are the better bets so uh I don't know any any fitness related thoughts I mean I do see a lot of people wearing these rings I also saw a lot of people on the Peloton bikes during COVID and we saw that one sure so so like I think from a human perspective it's very easy to believe in the story but they're saying that they're saying that in the chat Lily is the better bet GLP one is the better yep yeah yeah I get behind that yeah and I think what's stopping Apple from doing this you know meta uh it's gonna have a it's gonna have an amulet on your on around your neck that you can talk into whatever the muse accessory is what I'm saying is that people are thinking about hardware thinking about wearables sorry

56:46think about wearables at these companies and let's say that you know Peloton started having some success alpha would probably wipe them out right um I spent four hours looking at life 360 so we pay we pay for this in my I have two teenagers yeah yeah yeah oh yeah I know when my kids are every second of the day um like unless they're throwing their phone in the back of somebody's pickup truck and and then you know like in the movies like uh and you know their speed right like what's the level dude I might be right I know how fast they're going in in the car when they're idiot friends pick them up um I know what time they get home I know if they're in a car or on a train like they uh I'll probably pay for that till they're 40 years old because that's just where we're part of this helicopter parent generation yeah I spent all this time looking at the stock I just there's no escape from the idea that Apple just says what is spulshade we could do that like I can't escape that that um conclusion so I can't I can't afford it all right let's do your desert island charts

57:48I can't wait to see what these are all right tell people tell people what you mean by that and then yeah yeah let me explain that exhibit in general in general okay yeah let me explain what I mean by this so if you put me into a cave on a remote island okay and you gave me a ticker tape you said I'm gonna let you out in 20 years you could look at five charts for the rest of your life but what would you wait what would you need the charts for you on a desert island like what I need to be reminded every day when the okay so you have control of your brokerage account where you are I can just in it in this scenario okay got it all right I can it sell and I can hit by I can get back in so these are the charts that I would show to myself and constantly remind myself of okay and you know we could talk about uh why that's important for clients to see in that perspective but first I just want to rip through these john because we have five here so first this is a chart that shows the S&P 500 price back to 1950 and I'm shading 20% and 5% drawdowns when you look at this chart almost the entire chart is shaded so you are going through constant pain

58:52all the time as an equity investor it is non-stop so if you feel it it is normal 61% of the time the S&P 500 is in a 5% drawdown but say that one more say that one more time 61% of the time the S&P 500 is 5% or more off of its all time highs and people when you're in that 5% drawdown number one they think it's about to be 10 and number two they act like it's abnormal like what's going on what's wrong and I think the last 15 years have conditioned us to be even worse in that regard because the market doesn't make a new high every month it's like some some things some things going wrong like some some things about to happen I think there's a lot of that you could see it in the sentiment numbers and how they've changed like we're seeing AII bear is at levels consistent with like 2008 lows it's kind of broken all right next chart yep all right so this this is an idea

59:53from Michael and his point was chart kid he said everyone wants to show the chart of how you extend your time horizon and how that leads to the like the odds of you gaining in the soft money yeah making money this flips it and says okay over five year periods what's the likelihood of you experiencing a bear market and the odds of experiencing a bear market over all 15 year periods is 100 percent so you have to set the precedent with your clients for yourself that we are going to experience pain I love this put it back up so like in any given rolling three year period back to 1950 the odds of experiencing a bear market which we define as the market falling 20 percent or more was only 58 percent was like a coin flip so for every three year period for every five year period it's 78 percent every 10 year period you have a 95 percent chance of experiencing a bear market

1:00:57so right this is such a great idea it flips the idea of extending your holding period extends the odds of you making money yes it does but it also extends the odds of you experiencing something really nasty get over it you're definitely going to be an investor for more than 15 15 years if you're like most people hopefully if your health holds up you could see five or six consequential bear markets in a lifetime and it would not at all be abnormal so yes the longer you extend your time horizon the more money you'll make and also the more shit you have to put up with the long the way it's great chart right you got another one okay next chart yep here we go so Josh I heard you on CNBC you were talking about the relationships and finance and how there are almost no sure relationships okay call them iron iron laws of finance there are hard iron laws of finance there's almost none and here's one that we can almost point to that breaks that law and we're looking at

1:02:00on the x-axis the 10-year starting yield and on the y-axis the actual a 10-year forward annualized return from those given yields if you have a high starting yield on a US treasury there is almost certainty not 100% but almost certainty you are going to experience an actual return in the ballpark of that starting yield wow so right so this is the point is like you can't really set your watch by anything in the investment mark like nothing works P.U.A.Shield doesn't work like valuations in general you can't time the market on or or guess at what your returns are going to be that doesn't work it's like so much has changed over the years camped on like winning mutual fund managers because there's no persistence of performance that doesn't work like nothing works this like almost always works just like as a starting point for well how much am I actually going to make if I allocate if I allocate to bonds at today's prevailing

1:03:04interest rates what other conclusion can you draw from this I think what you could look at is you could look at 10-year yield today and you could say well where do we land on the regression line which is just pretty much a way of saying like that's your blue dot at your blue dot yeah that's the blue dot there and the blue dot there is saying look this is kind of where we are and it's in the ballpark of 6% right which again explains so much about which stocks are not working right now in the market because this is your this is your alternative right John can we can we fly the next one okay here we go so here we're looking at the relationship between the S&P 500 return year-over-year and the 12-month forward earnings growth year-over-year and so what you see here is that stocks historically follow earnings and it's not always perfect and as you can see now there is a little bit of divergence here we can extract whatever conclusions we want the idea is that forward earnings have grown 36% 36.7% year-over-year and the S&P 500 is up 17.9% year-over-year so

1:04:11forward earnings are more than doubling the actual stock market return over the past year which is incredible because I think most people would guess it's the opposite they would guess that it's the opposite and then when they see the stat they would say well the forward earnings are hypothetical they're you know it's forward earnings but I'm just you know if you go back it the forward earnings tend to be within 1% of the actuals it's the highest likelihood chance I love that so that's a good reminder if you're on a desert island like what are we actually betting on here we're betting that prices will rise because earnings will rise and they go hand in hand all right good one last one here you got one more yeah last one guys so here we got the S&P 500 annualized return going back to 1950 and it's if you stay invested fully you miss the best day of every year the best five days of every year and the best 10 days of every year I just want you to focus on the bar all the way to the right if you miss the best 10 days of every year obviously no one has perfect foresight but

1:05:12just theoretically your annualized return goes to negative 12% if you annualized from plus eight from plus eight point four to negative 12 just by missing the 10 best days of each year yeah it's sick so these these best yes sorry I was going to say people have been using some version of this chart since I got into the business to convince clients to stay the course I like your version of it because you're keeping it much more simple and a lot of it with you know 50 different bars and diamonds and and trend lines like you're just like guys this is it this is why you can't afford to swing in and out of the markets you could miss the whole point of taking risk to begin with something that I've learned in making charts and it's probably the number one lesson that I've had to kind of come to the conclusion with is that if you if you over complicate things people get annoyed they get frustrated it's about simplifying the concept it's not about looking smart it's about getting someone

1:06:16to look at the chart and say I actually get it you connect the dots for them you have taught them something that is going to hopefully in the future benefit them financially and so it's about simplifying Matt the crowd is going wild for you I wish we could hear the sound of their applause because it would be rapturous let's tell people how they can follow you there we go thank you folks chart kid Matt ladies and gentlemen I want to tell people before we get into we're going to do a mystery chart and then I'll make the case and we'll get out of here but before we do that I want to tell people how they can follow you personally and how financial advisors who are watching or listening can check out exhibit A which is your company yes so this is our our landing page here exhibit A4advice.com if you are an RAA with let's say one to ten advisors and you don't really have a research team there's two three CSAs there you want to look extremely professional in front of clients and prospects deliver an A plus first impression just give it a try it's perfect we're

1:07:20at the end of the quarter right now you can come in we have over 200 branded charts they update every single day Ben Carlson's doing eight monthly reports and four quarterly market and economic updates for our clients it's completely ghost written it's like literally having our content team and me as your analyst for a few hundred bucks a month it's unbelievable like most most there's 20,000 firms in the country most of them don't even have one research person and there are presentations to clients look like shit no offense like they're doing what we used to do they're grabbing charts from ten different firms and putting them in an email and hitting send like you're building these charts as templates where they can use their corporate colors their own logo the compliance stuff is already baked into it so they don't have to worry about am I allowed to show a chart that says this and people can pick and choose they don't descend 200 charts the client right might just say I want to send this one chart because it'll resonate with my client so it's an awesome product and you're active on Twitter LinkedIn what do you

1:08:27do yeah my blog is chart kid map calm I take some of the in the weeds charts that are a little bit you know past the what the advisor would show to clients and I post them there I talk about them I write I'm trying to be like you guys honestly so that's what I'm doing dude you absolutely question on the show tonight let's do uh make the case this will this will be uh just a reminder about some of the stuff we said about utilities um put up the price chart this is the state street utilities select sector spider ETF or XLU it's sort of shorthand for how the sector was doing I'm gonna tell you I will not buy this dip I don't like it I don't like what it represents I don't like how it acts it's in no man's land um and I'll just point out a couple of things but so so to make the case I'm making is not every dip is viable I don't like this one I think it best you have dead money and at worst this could get way worse when you look at utilities right now they've

1:09:29pulled back a lot this year you might even call it cheap because it's a 17.3 PE ratio and the five year average has been almost 23 that would be shortsighted if you zoom out to a true long term 10 year historical average on uh the PE ratio for the utility sector it's more like 12 so 17 is cheaper than 22 but historically not a meaningful discount um we had like a structurally distorted multiple in the space because of AI data center narrative and we were treating regulated utilities like they could be growth stocks uh if you buy this dip you're basically paying a 36% premium over the historical long term PE but it really does not look like that story is intact or going to hold up the other problem here is the trailing dead end yield is only 2.94 historically people before AI data center power people bought these stocks for the yield

1:10:32and as we've said 85 different ways the 10 year treasury note is now at 5.25% so I think the smart money is going to opt for that rather than the risk of a utility delivering a capital return and access to that um so I think it's a it's a it's a dip that you want to avoid rather than take advantage of maybe if it gets much cheaper we revisit that idea I only have one utility name in the firm's porterhouse concentrated momentum strategy so out of the I don't know four dozen stocks in this in this industry I have one and it looks like it's about to get bounced out anyway on our next three balance um put this up this is energy guys did you hear what I said this is the best looking utility in the market for in order for it to make porterhouse and since it got into the index into the uh the strategy that we run it's looked like shit ever since and I think we're about to kick it unless something radically changes so if that's the best looking name

1:11:34in the group it should tell you a little bit about how the rest of them look technically um so they're not cheap and the charts are pointing down into the right um so that's that's me making that case any any pushback there or you with me what do you think I'm I'm with you yeah you don't I mean with yields rising you don't want to you don't want to we're not doing use yeah all right you got a mystery chart I'm told huh I do have a mystery chart can we throw it up here we go all right all right all right hold on I could I can one hand at least okay it's going to be a good hand um this industry got destroyed in covid okay is it hold on hold on uh we've talked about it before on the show tonight Michael owns it we've talked about the show Michael owns it industry got destroyed in covid it's a stock or it or it's a it's a stock should I do another one okay we had the CEO on the show oh it's i'm axe there it is it's kid loves

1:12:46Michael battenick this is Michael's only long term stock holding uh personally and uh all right good good one I should have got when you said got destroyed there in covid I was thinking like after covid when they beat up all the uh the stay at home stocks but you're you mean like during covid like yeah I guess yeah I should have been more specific like no one did this during during covid right I inferred incorrectly all right uh chart kid Matt you questions tonight thank you so much guys I want to let you know despite the fact Michael's away there will absolutely be a new animal spirits tomorrow on all podcast platforms and right here on the compound channel on youtube make sure you check out ask the compound as well as an all new episode the compound and friends dropping at the end of the week we are here for you we are dropping bombs all day long on all channels keep it locked we'll talk to you soon

1:13:49so Brussels clean up nicely at sweet green maple glazed roasted and edges perfectly caramelized sweet greens fall harvest is back on the menu and the season's most overlooked little green vegetable is dressed to be devoured you know what to do order on the sweet green app